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“People don’t turn down money! It’s what separates us from the animals.”
— Jerry Seinfeld 
Fruity Friday Charts
According to my Seinfeld Produce Index (SPI), current inflation fears are overblown. Pound-for-pound, our 2022 dollars get us 13% more grapes and 21% more cucumbers than our inflation-adjusted 1993 dollars did. We are, however, getting 8% fewer plumbs (sic). That’s assuming you're a Walmart shopper, like me. If you’re shopping at Whole Foods, well, you’re probably more worried about the price of equities, bitcoin and NFTs than the price of produce. So let’s look at some charts and see if we can decide what’s what.
The best chart: 
US Covid cases are rapidly receding, so it seems logical that supply chain bottlenecks should, too. Unless we all refuse to go back to the office or get on an airplane, in which case, consumption patterns could be permanently changed and supply chains will take longer to heal.
But judging from stock prices we have finally gotten sick of watching TV and are ready to go outside: 
To whatever degree we watch less TV, do less indoor biking and attend fewer Zoom meetings, it’s disinflationary.
Lower goods consumption suggests that is happening: 
World economies have been propped up by US consumer demand for goods. Shifting our consumption to travel and services will be disinflationary. We’ve bought enough stuff, it’s time to go do things.
We might even have gotten tired of buying JPEGs: 
Google Trends suggests the NFT mania may have peaked (for now).
Fewer goods, Fewer NFTs, less inflation? 
Consumer confidence is at a 10-year low, which seems to be out-of-line with low employment, rising wages and high savings. But maybe our hive-mind has sussed out some weakness to come.
Inflation expectations may have peaked: 
We are prepared for another year of rising cucumber prices, but consensus seems to be moving back into the transitory camp (if three years counts as transitory).
Cost of housing is the top concern in inflation surveys, but supply is responding: 
Housing is the most lagged component of CPI but more of it is coming.
What’s it all mean for investors? 
Stocks are lower, but, relative to real rates at least, not necessarily cheaper.
Bitcoin may have priced in more of the downside: 
Pantera capital notes that bitcoin has been this far below trend for only 12.7% of its history.
So what have we decided? Are the sellers of stocks and bitcoin turning down money? If the above market and survey indicators on inflation are correct, then probably yes. If the SPI continues to rise, probably no.
Have a great weekend, Walmart shoppers.
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