Together with: 
“A child of five could understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.”
― Groucho Marx on crypto 
Friday’s Good, Bad Charts
I’m starting to get pretty bearish, and that is great news — I always get bearish right at the lows. Because by the time I’ve figured out just how bad things are, they tend to already be getting less bad.
And less bad is all you need for risk assets to go up. Did things get less bad this week? Let’s see if some charts can help us figure it out.
But first, a point of clarification: In yesterday’s note, I implied that explaining crypto to a 5 year old is easier than explaining it to a 50 year old. I was joking and meant no offense. I am myself 50 and have yet to meet a 5 year old that could outsmart me at anything other than math.
1982 is starting to look pretty good (I remember it well): 
The “flexible price” measure of inflation, which includes only the most volatile components of CPI, is nearly double the Volcker-era highs. Let’s put a positive spin on that and say it can reverse lower just as quickly as it shot higher. But, yikes, that’s a scary chart.
Italy: You think that’s a scary chart? Hold my limoncello. 
Source: @DoombergT
January producer prices in Italy were up 41.8% YoY. Wow.
Everything is relative: 
Source: @DoombergT
It’s always good to have a friend that is more messed up than you are — to make you feel better by comparison. Europe is that friend to the US. Natural gas prices are thirteen times higher in Europe than they are in the States.
Not everything is getting more expensive: 
Source: @M_McDonough
The price of calculators, telephones and video discs all fell by more than 7% last month. 1980s living is the cheapest it’s been since, well, the 1980s.
More importantly, for living in the here and now: 
Wheat and oil prices are both well off their highs. Which is good news not only because it lowers the cost of staying warm and fed, but also because it lowers the risk of financial turmoil ensuing from weird collateral issues and margin calls.
Here’s some good, bad news: 
Small businesses are planning to hire fewer workers. Which is bad news in the real world, but good news in the finance world, where we worry more about interest rates than jobs.
And more good, bad news: 
@LizAnnSonders
The hottest subsector of the labor market has cooled off, with average hourly earnings now negative for two consecutive months. Bad news for normal people. Good news for finance people.
It’s been the best of times. It’s been the worst of times. 
@LizAnnSonders
There’s been something for everyone this month: On March 1, commodities had their biggest up-day since 2009; on March 9th they had their biggest down-day since 2008. Understandably, given all the good, bad news.
And let’s finish with some great, great news…for 50-year-old homeowners: 
All of our houses are worth more than we think they are. 5 year olds — you’d better get saving.
Have a great weekend, ageless wonders.
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