Friday Seasonal Charts
Labor Day is now behind us, so summer is effectively over.
It’s still 95 degrees out and fall doesn't officially start until September 24, but you can already feel the market season changing.
The carefree soft-landing vibes of summer are starting to give way to anxiousness over high interest rates and slowing growth.
Oil prices are up and job openings are down.
The FOMC is still worried about inflation, but there’s a growing sense that we need to start worrying about growth.
So far, a feeling is all it is. Goldman lowered the odds of a US recession over the next year to just 15%; GDPNow is still 5.6%; and the VIX is 14.50.
So it may just be end-of-summer ennui that we’re experiencing.
But the vibe is changing. Perhaps because of all we have to look forward to: OPEC production cuts, a potential UAW strike, and a potential US government shutdown.
Most imminently, CPI feels like something to worry about again, with next week’s report potentially becoming the start of a new uptrend.
And the balance of power between employees and employers feels like it’s shifting.
Uber told us this week it’s no longer struggling to find drivers, Walmart has cut starting salaries, and the Wall Street Journal reports that “companies are paying new recruits less than they did just months ago— in some cases, much less.”
Still, unemployment is near record lows and official data sees wages continuing to rise.
So, should we trust these uneasy feelings?
Or are we just looking for something — anything — to worry about?
Let’s check the charts to find out.
Data vs. vibes:
