On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown.
As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the whole commodity complex. Eric lays out the major warning signs that can help identify cyclical changes in the economy.
Referencing Edward E. Leamer's paper "Housing IS the Business Cycle," Eric also gives listeners a crash course on the connection between housing and economic growth. To hear more, tune in!
Read Housing IS The Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428
Follow Eric Basmajian: @EPBResearch
Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_
Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_
Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
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(06:46)・The Economic Pyramid
(13:24)・Housing IS the Business Cycle
(30:24)・Falling Corporate Profits
(40:55)・Is Inflation Transitory, Or Not?
(53:34)・How To Solve The Growth Problem