ep. 161


Eric Basmajian: An Update On The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his "Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown" episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022.

Since Eric made that call in April, things have accelerated, so we invited Eric back to the show for a discussion on how the most important economic signals are pointing to a further slowdown throughout 2022 and into 2023. What does the record tightening in monetary policy mean for the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing? How will that in turn effect consumption and spending? And will all of these factors combined lead to a recession into the new year? To find out, you'll have to tune in!


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Referenced In The Show:

The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6dwcJVX8vUm5gY0bwTvdXE?si=7b81b2b4506d4ce9



(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown

(14:53) Preparing For A Revision In Earnings

(19:07) Preparing For A Hard Landing

(29:22) Being Surprised By The Fed's Rate Hikes

(33:43) Will The Fed Achieve It's Goal? Or Will Something Break?

(38:53) Circle Ad

(40:13) Eric's Secular Outlook On The Economy

(44:05) The Biggest Misconceptions About Inflation: Wage Price Spiral


Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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