ep. 126

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Fed “Taking The Punch Bowl Away” Triggers Market Sell-Off | Jurrien Timmer

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for the exit bidding the U.S Dollar higher, it's clear the "Fed taking away the punch bowl" caught investors out as liquidity dried up and correlations went to one.


Jurrien goes on to discuss projected earnings, inflation expectations, the breakdown of a 60/40 portfolio during financial repression and the commodity supercycle thesis. Will the Fed be able to thread the needle? Looking back at periods throughout history, Jurrien helps answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show: 


US Home-Price Appreciation Accelerates for Fourth Month: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/us-home-price-appreciation-accelerates-for-fourth-month#xj4y7vzkg


The Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuB2RcrXFHE


Grant Williams Reveals the End Game for Central Bank Money Printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4z8eU1qvI


Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:06)・Market Turmoil

(03:24)・Rising Cost Of Capital

(10:37)・Are We Heading For An Earnings Recession?

(16:12)・The Fed's Goal Is Demand Destruction

(21:56)・Inflation Expectations, The Fed Put & Rising Real Estate

(30:35)・Fireblocks Ad

(31:54)・Historical Stocks/Bonds Correlation

(41:11)・Unwinding Of The 60/40 During Financial Repression

(45:51)・The Commodity Supercycle


Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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