On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.
We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!
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Referenced In The Show:
Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428
The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss_channel=tw-510529116
Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-market-3f2
Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
(00:45) Rising Risk Of Recession
(02:41) Heading For An Earnings Recession
(04:09) We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?
(09:45) How Energy Has Impacted Earnings
(18:08) What Is Happening In Credit?
(22:52) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks
(31:01) Housing IS The Business Cycle
(37:19) Final Thoughts
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.