On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline.
Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new regime shift Julian expects effect his actionable trade idea? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
So, Recession?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession#details
Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf
Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/ecb-lagarde-plays-down-recession-risks-at-sintra-forum.html
The current bond bull market is the longest in more than 500 years https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-paper-on-bond-bull-markets-through-the-years-2017-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T
Bretton Woods III: https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf
(01:01) Top Stories Of The Week
(06:53) Can the Fed pivot?
(13:59) Feature Interview With Julian Brigden
(23:59) The Labor Market
(29:03) Will the Fed turn dovish?
(34:44) The U.S. Dollar vs Equities
(39:24) Julian's Actionable Trade Idea
(46:01) Post Interview: Final Thoughts
(51:29) The Role of the US Dollar
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.