Inflation Will Fall off A Cliff In 2023 | Warren Pies

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023.


Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction

(00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ?

(08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market

(11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap

(14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies

(15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle?

(17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change

(19:56) Is This Time Different?

(23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve

(27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer

(32:25) “Curve Ad”

(33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative

(37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea

(44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts

(53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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