Jurrien Timmer: The Trade For A 2023 Recession

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023.


How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:


Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:30) The Bond Market Is Pricing A 2023 Recession

(06:11) Does Inflation Come Down With A Recession? History Says Yes

(10:38) Feature Interview With Jurrien Timmer

(18:03) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity

(24:22) “Curve Ad”

(25:31) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity

(30:12) Are We Close To A Peak In Fed Funds?

(35:25) Jurrien's Actionable Trade Idea

(38:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts

(41:17) When Will The Fed End QT?

(51:54) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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