🟪 Nearing the end zone

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This week, Byron is enjoying the holidays and taking a break from newsletterland. Please enjoy this takeover edition from the Forward Guidance newsletter, written by Casey Wagner, Ben Strack and Felix Jauvin.

President-elect Donald Trump appears to be working down his crypto promises list via another personnel decision. 

Trump said Sunday that Bo Hines will serve as executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets. David Sacks, the PayPal co-founder who Trump tapped to be the US government’s AI and crypto czar earlier this month, will chair this group.

Hines will work with Sacks "to foster innovation and growth in the digital assets space, while ensuring industry leaders have the resources they need to succeed," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"Together, they will create an environment where this industry can flourish, and remain a cornerstone of our nation's technological advancement," he added.

A former NC State (and Yale) football player, Hines sought to represent North Carolina’s 13th Congressional district in 2022, but lost that election to Democrat Wiley Nickel. He launched a campaign in December 2023 to represent the state’s 6th Congressional district — endorsing Trump that same month before posting this to X in January:

Trump had referenced a US crypto council in July during his address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. He said it was something he would assemble "immediately" before asking for a show of hands who wanted to be on it. The crowd roared.

The then-presidential candidate said the council’s task of designing crypto regulatory guidance would get done in 100 days. We’ll have to monitor that. 

Reuters reported last month that people at crypto companies Ripple, Kraken, Circle, Paradigm and a16z were among those wanting a seat at that table.

Trump’s ongoing engagement with the industry seems to show his pro-crypto rhetoric was not just lip service. A few days before that Reuters story ran, Trump nominated crypto-friendly Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick to lead the Department of Commerce.

The soon-to-be president also just met with Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek last week about crypto-related appointments and a bitcoin reserve.

Those congratulating Hines on X yesterday included crypto bigwigs Michael Saylor and Fred Thiel — leaders of two companies (MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital) which own roughly 490,000 BTC combined.

— Ben Strack

President Biden over the weekend signed Congress’s bipartisan spending package, narrowly avoiding a government shutdown and keeping federal operations funded through mid-March. 

The bill, cut from 1,500 pages to around 100, does not raise the debt ceiling, a provision President-elect Trump requested. Also out: a 3.8% raise for members of Congress, a bipartisan provision included in the original bill. 

The eleventh-hour deal did little to calm markets, which have struggled to maintain their post-election momentum this month. The S&P 500 is down 1.7% since the start of December. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has fared better, gaining 1.4% month to date, but the index lost almost 3% last week alone. 

The dip, which Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye attributes to hawkish commentary from the Fed, political turmoil and disappointing initial jobless claims data last week, could be a "potential preview" for the new year. 

"Now, to be clear, while I say that, I’m also not saying I expect the market to decline next year," Essaye added. 

"Instead, I think last week was a preview of 2025 because it was a realization of what I have been warning about: Namely that uncertainty around the key drivers of this bull market is going to rise and we saw that last week with two of the drivers of rally, expectations for Fed rate cuts and pro-growth policies." 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were trading fairly flat midway through Monday’s session, up 0.6% and 1%, respectively, as of 2:15 pm ET. Market moves are expected to be relatively soft this week with a limited number of trading days. 

Meanwhile, bitcoin has also stalled. The largest digital currency is down around 13% from its all-time high of more than $108,000. 

Historically, cryptos deliver mixed returns in the final days of the year. When trying to predict what might happen this week, analysts say keeping an eye on macro conditions will be key. 

"While reduced liquidity can heighten volatility, the absence of major institutional activity may actually stabilize prices," James Toledano, chief operating officer at Unity Wallet, said. "This year, much depends on investor sentiment following 2024’s ETF approval and the Trump-factor as well as other macro trends." 

— Casey Wagner

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2. Trump crypto appointment spurs optimism 

3. Stocks trade sideways after Congress passes stopgap spending bill

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5. Robinhood wants to be a tokenization ‘pioneer’