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It’s a high-stakes day for tech stocks as the grand finale to earnings season looms: Nvidia’s third quarter report, set to drop today after the bell. 



As the world’s largest public company by market cap, Nvidia has been the definitive winner of the AI boom. Shares are up almost 200% year to date and 1,000% since September 2022. 



Analysts are expecting big things from Nvidia tonight. Wall Street has consistently upped its predictions for the report, increasing earnings per share estimates to $2.84 (from $2.81 in September). Earnings per share from the second quarter came in at $2.70, a 148% increase year over year. 



Revenue estimates for the third quarter come in at $33 billion, which would be an 83% increase from the prior year. Second quarter earnings showed revenue was $30 billion. 



Investors are going to be looking for signs that Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU, a high-performance chip expected to drive the next AI wave, is in high demand and functioning well. Tonight’s call comes as reports of Blackwell GPUs overheating continue to swirl. Nvidia has invested more than $2 billion in developing Blackwell, so shareholders (and the broader market) are going to want to see signs that these issues are being worked out. 



Check back tomorrow for a full recap of Nvidia’s Q3 earnings and what will no doubt be some interesting market moves to follow.







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Nvidia heads into earnings as its star chip continues to glitch 

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It’s been two weeks since the US presidential election outcome that sent BTC to new highs and spurred some of the latest bullish happenings.



Let’s review what’s occurred in crypto land since Donald Trump’s political victory.



Starting with the crypto price rally, BTC rose 8.8% on Election Day (Nov. 5), Coinglass data shows. There were modest gains the next few days before BTC saw notable daily price increases of 4.8% and 10.2% on Nov. 9 and Nov. 10, respectively. Then a 4.2% rise on Nov. 14.



By Bitfinex analysts’ count, BTC rose roughly 40% (from the pre-election selloff point of about $66,880 to a then-peak $93,300) — marking the largest nine-day price increase for BTC since January 2021.  



Bitcoin surged to a new high over $94,900 early Wednesday. It was hovering around $93,800 at 2 pm ET — up 1.5% from 24 hours prior. 



Outside of price, everyone was reminded of some of Trump’s crypto-related pledges. Given the Republicans’ majority in the House and Senate too, hope around the US creating a strategic bitcoin reserve (via a bill proposed by Sen. Cynthia Lummis) is aplenty.  




WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) November 6, 2024




In an X space yesterday, Lummis said she hopes “we can tee this up for adoption in 2025.” She noted that after Trump is sworn in, the US could get a headstart by converting gold certificates to bitcoin (even before the bill’s potential passage).



“The advantage of having legislation is it sets up the functional basis for the government holding bitcoin in a variety of locations, and then helping states hold their bitcoin as well,” she said. 



On the latter point, a notable post-election crypto headline was Pennsylvania lawmakers introducing a bill that would allow the state’s treasury to keep BTC on its balance

What the US election outcome spurred in crypto land  

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Running an Ethereum L2 was historically very expensive. L2s had to pay millions in data availability costs to the L1.



All that changed with the Dencun hardfork (EIP-4844) in March 2024. It introduced an expansion of blockspace called “blobs” for L2s to post batched data extremely cheaply to the L1. Blob space sits in a separate fee market from the L1. It’s about an order of a magnitude cheaper than L1 blockspace, making it a critical aspect of Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap.



To illustrate that point, Base paid $9.34 million in expenses for Q1 2024, which saw a sharp drop to $699k in Q2 2024 and $42k in Q3 2024, based on TokenTerminal data.



The bad news (or good?) is that blobspace is getting somewhat pricey again as onchain activity picks up in the bull market.



Blobs today are limited to six per mainnet block. When blob usage hits a target limit of 50%, or three, a base fee is introduced to regulate demand usage by hundreds of L2s. When usage hits four blobs, base fees are further increased by up to 12.5% for the next block.



That is exactly what is starting to take place over the past several weeks (see chart below).



Source: Dune



In short, blobs aren't free anymore and L2s need to start paying “rent.” Based on ultrasound.money, blob fee burn is coming up to about 212 ETH in the last 30 days, and has generated substantial blob fees to Ethereum mainnet.



Source: Blockworks Research



So blobs are generally great. L2s are cheaper to operate, and that’s nice for L2 users.



But people (read: ETH holders) aren’t happy because it looks like L2s are getting away with paying barely any expenses to the L1, which thereby accrues less value to ETH the asset.



This complaint centers around pessimism that blob usage will be high enough to return value to the L1 for two key reasons:




L2s are fundamentally a business. They will opt for a

The blobs conundrum: Ethereum's balancing act

Former top FTX executive Gary Wang was sentenced to time served with three years of supervised release Wednesday for his role in the $8 billion fraud that preceded the exchange's collapse. Wang is the final cooperating member of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s inner circle to be sentenced. 



Wang, co-founder and former chief technology officer of FTX, served as a government witness in Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial last fall. He was the first co-conspirator to work with prosecutors and pleaded guilty to four counts of fraud and conspiracy in December 2022. 



“You immediately did the right thing,” Judge Lewis Kaplan said Wednesday, addressing Wang. “You are entitled to a world of credit.” 



While Wang does bear some responsibility for his role in the crimes, Kaplan added, his culpability is minimal compared to other defendants. “Life is a balance,” and cooperation should be rewarded, Kaplan said. 



Wang’s parents and wife, who is expecting their first child, were present in the courtroom Wednesday.



Prosecutors and Wang’s team previously asked the judge to sentence Wang to time served. 



Read more: Remembering FTX: How the collapse shaped crypto’s future



Wang’s assistance, prosecutors said, was not only instrumental in their case against Bankman-Fried but will help bring down more criminals in the future. 



“Wang has built an interface that the Government has begun using for detecting potential fraud by publicly traded companies,” prosecutors wrote in a Nov. 13 note to the court. 



Should Wang avoid jail time, prosecutors said he agreed to continue working on an additional “tool for detection of potential illegal activity in cryptocurrency markets.” 



Last fall, Wang testified that at Bankman-Fried’s direction, he wrote the code that allowed Alameda’s “unlimited withdrawals” from FTX. The excessive line of credit ultimately culminated in an $8 billion hole in the exchange’s books.



“We gave special

FTX co-founder won’t serve time in prison, judge rules

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It's often said that the real money in the gold rush was made by selling shovels.



You could argue that’s the case in crypto right now as well: As Solana eyes an all-time high, it’s the crypto exchanges — where users gain access to their magic internet money — raking in most of the revenue.



Despite the growth of decentralized exchanges relative to centralized ones, Coinbase is still lapping up a lot of the US crypto market, while Binance remains dominant in the east. These exchanges take in funds from trading fees and from their Solana validators, but onchain sleuths have also found the two exchanges to be wasting some of their funds with inefficient transaction processes.



Coinbase and Binance make money in roughly similar ways: When users trade, they take a cut. Their take rate varies but can be quite high (Coinbase charged me $0.99 in fees when I set up a $10 bitcoin order, for instance). Solana accounted for 9% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue for the first half of this year which would add up to roughly $167 million for the exchange, per its most recent financial disclosures. That figure has likely risen in the second half of the year, as Solana continues to showcase impressive price action.



Both exchanges also run Solana validators. Despite charging their stakers an 8% commission that is at the upper end of what most big validators charge, Coinbase and Binance still run the second- and sixth-largest validators, respectively. Operating a validator — which votes on transactions to keep the Solana blockchain running — is quite lucrative for Coinbase and Binance these days.



Assuming a Solana network reward of 8% annually, Coinbase would bring in around $19 million annually at current prices, and Binance would net $13 million. Those numbers would be especially elevated this week: Tips and fees validators brought in last week topped $110

Binance and Coinbase are pocketing a lot of SOL

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If the US government really intends to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, it will need to compete with MicroStrategy.



As it stands, the velocity of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin buying has exploded, to the point that it now holds 331,200 BTC ($30.9 billion), or 1.7% of the circulating supply.



For scale, Sen. Lummis has pitched a 1 million BTC target for the government reserve, worth $93.2 billion at current prices. In July, the latest figures showed the US holding over $608 billion in gold certificates in its strategic reserve.



To be clear, there’s no official indication that the US will actually make bitcoin its fifth reserve asset (Polymarket puts the current chance at 36%). And as Blockworks’ Byron Gilliam pointed out in his newsletter yesterday, it could even be a really bad idea. 



Let’s say it does happen. That would mean MicroStrategy is frontrunning the US government at size, potentially driving up prices before the reserve buys its first, very hypothetical, coins.



Mapping exactly when MSTR buys its bitcoin — to perhaps find positive correlation between the price of BTC and the firm’s trades — is unfortunately impossible with the publicly-available data.



MicroStrategy does disclose the number of bitcoins it buys alongside its total dollar spend. But it generally only offers a range of dates on which those trades were made.



Still, averaging those figures out shows that over most of the past three years, MicroStrategy would’ve spent up to several millions of dollars on BTC per day during its buying sprees. Those sprees often last for over a month, according to its filings.



A range of dates wasn’t disclosed for those massive purchases on the left side of the chart (the green, peach and pink plus symbols). They were huge in any case.



By March of this year, when bitcoin was setting all-time highs around $74,000, that number had jumped to

MicroStrategy's bitcoin bet is paying off in more ways than one

MiCA compliance is the main catalyst that will separate winners from losers across Europe’s crypto industry. Companies that embrace the framework’s rigorous standards won’t just stay afloat; they’ll dominate, using compliance as a strategic weapon to outpace competitors, drive mergers and acquisitions, and secure their position in a rapidly consolidating market.



MiCA’s introduction is poised to ignite a surge in mergers and acquisitions across Europe’s crypto sector, as regulatory compliance becomes a key driver of deal-making. Firms that master MiCA’s standards won’t just protect their market positions — they’ll gain a competitive edge, leveraging compliance credentials to attract partners, investors and buyers. Consolidation will be a natural response to rising operational costs, with smaller players seeking alliances in order to survive and thrive. Meanwhile, I foresee larger firms capitalizing on similar opportunities to expand their footprints.



This wave of consolidation will most likely signal a major shift in the competitive dynamics of the European crypto sector. As smaller firms struggle to shoulder the costs of compliance, their strategic value to larger, more resourceful players will only grow. For acquirers, MiCA-compliant firms represent a safer bet, offering established infrastructure, robust internal controls and governance systems already aligned with regulatory demands. With MiCA emphasizing operational soundness and investor protection, these companies will become prime targets, reducing risks and accelerating post-acquisition integration. In this new era, compliance won’t just be a cost — it’ll be a mechanism for growth, reshaping the competitive landscape.



Read more: MiCAR will give foreign stablecoins a clear advantage in Europe



The framework itself sets a high bar for transparency and accountability. Under MiCA, any firm planning to invest in or acquire a crypto-asset service provider (CASP) or an

MiCA compliance will drive Europe into a crypto consolidation frenzy

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Shares of Donald Trump’s social media company, Trump Media & Technology, continued to fluctuate Tuesday following a rally spurred by reports that the president-elect is furthering his crypto business interests. 



The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Trump Media is in “advanced talks” to acquire crypto exchange Bakkt — a company founded and owned by New York Stock Exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).



The news pushed Bakkt shares 162% higher Monday and Trump Media (ticker DJT) posted a 17% gain. Bakkt sustained its rally into Tuesday (trading 7% higher midway through the session), while DJT lost more than 8%. 



The social media company began trading on the Nasdaq last spring after a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. Currently hovering around $30, DTJ shares are up almost 150% from their September low, but are still trading about 40% off of their IPO price of $50. 



Trump Media’s recent gains have not been linear, though. Shares rose 65% at the end of October, a rally attributed to increased optimism at the time that Trump would win the election. The share price since Trump’s victory however has been flat, posting a modest increase the day after the election before erasing gains. 



The market is, presumably, confused about what a Trump win means for the social media company. Yesterday’s rise shows that investors are decently certain that acquiring Bakkt would be a good move. But the subsequent retreat shows shareholders aren’t exactly sure why. 



We’ll be following the acquisition story and will be writing a lot more about what it means when the majority shareholder of a public company moves into the White House. Stay tuned.







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Explore the growing intersection between crypto,

Trump Media shares ride post-election, potential crypto acquisition wave 

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President-elect Donald Trump has nominated a crypto supporter to lead the Department of Commerce. 



The Wall Street Journal (along with Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman) reported Trump’s expected pick of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick for that job on Tuesday morning. Trump later confirmed the selection on Truth Social.



There were previous reports that Lutnick — a leader of Trump’s transition team — was in the running for treasury secretary. 



We highlighted Lutnick’s remarks on bitcoin in a September edition of this newsletter. At the time, the CEO noted that TradFi players — including banks and brokerages — would “go headfirst into bitcoin” when the regulatory environment improved. 



Donald Trump’s election win has seemed to set the stage for that, given the crypto promises he has made (namely, “firing” SEC Chair Gary Gensler).



Bitcoin surged to above $93,900 for the first time just before 2 pm ET Tuesday — up 3.7% from 24 hours prior.   



As BTC “gets invited into this party, up we go,” Lutnick added in a September video posted to X. That comes when banks can more freely clear, custody and transact in bitcoin, Lutnick said — a reality hindered by the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, for example.



Aside from being vocally enthusiastic about the crypto segment, Lutnick’s firm has stablecoin issuer Tether as a client — a company that has denied being under federal investigation.



We and others are curious about what roles Lutnick might drop if he indeed takes on this cabinet position, so as not to serve his own business interests.







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Trump nominates pro-crypto CEO to lead commerce department

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A new crypto-related financial tool is finally here. 



Spot bitcoin ETFs hit US exchanges in January, and more than 10 months later, investors are able to trade options on the biggest of those products (and others very soon).



As you probably know, an option is a contract representing the right to buy or sell a financial product at a certain price for a specific period of time.



Industry watchers have told Blockworks that options would lead to a more robust ecosystem around the spot ETFs, enhancing liquidity and price discovery.



CK Zheng, CIO of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, told me today that bitcoin ETF options are “extremely powerful” for institutional investors to better manage their bitcoin exposures under various market conditions. 



Indeed, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley said in a statement that the new product shows bitcoin is further “cementing its place alongside stocks, bonds and commodities as a mainstream institutional investment.”



The options can also be used by speculators, Zheng explained, to leverage their bets when they are extremely bullish or bearish on the asset.



Bitwise’s Jeff Park previously noted these options would mark “the first time the financial world will see regulated leverage on a perpetual commodity that is truly supply-constrained.”



Put another way by Joe Consorti in a video on X, listing options on bitcoin ETFs “opens the door to the largest and deepest liquidity pools on the planet.” 



Let’s quickly run through some of the events leading up to these listings: 




Nasdaq, NYSE and Cboe submitted proposals to the SEC in January to list options on spot bitcoin ETPs.



Grayscale Investments pointed out the SEC’s quick approval of options on bitcoin futures ETFs in a March blog post, calling on the regulator to do the same for the spot products. But that month, the SEC said it

Bitcoin ETF options marks new chapter for the asset class

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Trump’s win could have you cooking up all sorts of profitable trading strategies. 



It’s only natural, considering it feels like we’re on the cusp of a new paradigm: for arguably the first time ever, US regulators might take it easy on crypto and let innovation flourish.



And so the topic of risk appetite came up on today’s Empire podcast episode. 



Yano asked Eric Peters, CEO and CIO of both Coinbase Asset Management and One River, what he’d prescribe for a 30-40-year-old first-time crypto investor who has a million dollars to allocate and a strong appetite for risk.



“I would advocate for them to be overweighted to bitcoin and ether but have some exposure to solana. Maybe 50/35/15 [percent], something like that,” Peters said. “[But] I think if you’re right on that trade, you’re gonna, at least for a period of time, wish you’d had a million bucks in solana.”



The question was really posed within the immediate context. Still, we can backtest Peters’ suggestion. 



And even better, plot it alongside Coinbase’s new benchmark crypto index COIN50, which is currently weighted 51.5% BTC, 23.4% ETH, 7% SOL with the remaining 18% or so spread across 47 other altcoins including DOGE, XRP, BCH and BONK.







The above, in log view, plots the value of that $1 million allocation from the end of 2020, which is when COIN50’s performance data starts. 



There’s indeed an element of time bias. The period starts in the leadup to the epic 2021 bull run when SOL’s market cap was under $100 million (now $117 billion).



So, back then, it would be questionable just how likely it would be to split a million-dollar allocation between BTC, ETH, and a token so small in relative terms.



In any case, the purple shows the split highlighted by Peters, which turned $1 million into $27 million and would now be at all-time highs for dollar value.



ETH maxis

Coinbase Asset Management CEO's allocation recommendation

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When I talk to Solana ecosystem people, I’ll sometimes ask what new projects they’ve been hearing about. One such project that’s been catching apparent buzz is Perena, a stablecoin infrastructure protocol.



Perena is built on the premise that as stablecoins proliferate, liquidity could fragment, and stablecoins aren’t useful if they aren’t liquid. The platform offers a Solana-based stablecoin liquidity pool, and it plans to offer an asset-backed stablecoin in the future.



The project was founded by Anna Yuan, who started the Solana Foundation’s stablecoin arm during her more than two years at the non-profit. While working at the foundation, Yuan began to see that new stablecoin issuers would mint a lot of tokens but would have limited integrations, and users consequently weren’t able to benefit from stablecoins in the real world. 



She cited Ondo as an example — the tokenized US Treasury stablecoin has over $100 million in supply but only 3,500 holders, according to SolScan.



I asked Yuan about the commonly cited claim in crypto that stablecoins have pulled off the difficult task of finding product-market fit, or satisfying the needs of an existing market.



“I don’t agree,” Yuan said, adding that liquidity begets PMF, and most stablecoins simply aren’t liquid enough to be useful. She added that the real-world need for things like money transfers in emerging markets will help stablecoins “get there.”



Perena is currently in closed beta, but the platform’s main feature will initially be a multi-stablecoin liquidity pool which uses a liquidity provider token called USD* that represents a piece of a seed pool containing Tether, Circle, and PayPal USD. In simpler terms, the liquidity pool model should make it easier to issue stablecoins, since smaller coins can access the liquidity from the well-capitalized seed pool.



The concept