Market Depth

Nvidia surprised the street with another major beat to guidance estimates for its Q2 earnings release - arguably the most widely watched corporate earnings report globally in 2023, with the stock +9% higher in after-hours trading.However, in the following Asia trading session - which is the world's first region to start the full trading day, and thereby the first to react to the A.I. giant's strong quarter and optimistic guidance - the various market reactions were surprisingly tepid. Shares of TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest and other "A.I. plays" were consistent in being fairly muted. The broader Nikkei225 and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also limited in both upside and in volume traded. Weston Nakamura walks through these market cues out of Asia, which point to a potentially disappointing market response on NVDA shares themselves at US market open later, as well as other A.I. thematic shares globally.Weston also provides the market background of what had helped drive the A.I. and NDX momentum from last quarter, as well as the August market sell-off for critical context in understanding NVDA and A.I. momentum plays.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Asia Markets Are Reacting To Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings

China has had a very rough 2023, in markets and in the real economy. But, last week was a particularly brutal week for China’s markets, as the Hang Seng Index closed the week in bear market territory, and the yuan edged ever closer to its treacherous 15-year lows - all of which had spilled over to broader global markets.Weston Nakamura gives a comprehensive overview of what happened in China through the week of utmost consequence to global markets, including record strong yuan fixings, Country Garden Holdings Group’s bond defaults, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group and the $3 trillion Chinese shadow banking industry contagion risk, and China’s policymakers daily policy proposals in attempt to support markets (to no avail), and much more.This is not only a way to catch up on a critical and consequential week of non-stop headlines and developments, but this is the ongoing state of affairs in China that had been dragging global equity markets down since the start of August, and therefore is relevant to all investors everywhere.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China Drags Global Markets Down As Half-Measure Policies Prove To Be Ineffective

As followers of Market Depth Podcast know- this year's NASDAQ upside rally was largely driven by Japan and the Nikkei225. Now, Weston Nakamura explains how the current market sell-off is being driven by China, and the plunging yuan.Weston also discusses his views on the Japanese yen, and how he is approaching the FX market intervention risk, as the yen weakens to previous unilateral intervention levels - as well as his views on the Chinese yuan, also reaching critical levels despite heavy-handed state intervention underway.This is the episode that will make equity investors, particularly US equities, to fixate on the Asia market impact effect.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Asia Pulls Down Global Equities, As The Dollar Weighs On Asia

Ahead of the US July CPI data and the 30-year Treasury auction, Weston Nakamura follows up from the previous episode of Market Depth with an update on bond market activity from Japanese investors, who have been driving the week's drop in global sovereign bond yields via the JGB and US Treasury markets.Using futures markets, Weston shows the renewed bullish sentiment as exhibited by a surprisingly strong 30-year JGB auction, and a smooth scheduled Bank of Japan bond buying operation. Japan is once again back to anchoring global bond yields - for now.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Japanese Investors Rush Back Into Global Bond Markets

With still no further clarity on Bank of Japan’s new policy framework of Yield Curve Control, and currency and cash bond markets out of sync, Weston Nakamura examines market price action and activity on US and Japan rates through the lens of futures markets, in order to determine if cross asset market behavior is normalizing.Weston also notes the schedule for this week, in which there will be 30-year auctions held in both the Japanese Government Bond market, as well as the US Treasury market, within 2 days of one another. Given the respective policy setups for US debt issuance and Bank of Japan YCC, there may be competition for investors’ capital playing out at these long-dated bond auctions.Finally, Weston offers a potential theory as to why Fitch Ratings had suddenly downgraded their credit rating of US debt, while subsequently publishing positive commentary on Japan’s credit risk in light of the Bank of Japan’s surprise jump in interest rates - which largely went unnoticed. In doing so, Weston dives into the very active world of of yen-denominated foreign bond issuance, in which global corporates and sovereigns have been rushing in to Japan in order to tap the last bastion of cheap money left.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What Triggered Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S Debt? 

Developed markets globally saw a dramatic rise in sovereign bond yields that spanned this whole week - notably at the long end of US Treasuries. Some attribute the move to Fitch Ratings downgrade of US debt, while others point to the government's announcement to boost its bond issuance in the coming months.Following up from the previous episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura shows how this week's global bond rout not only stems directly from the Japanese Government Bond market and the Bank of Japan's recent surprise policy change to the way in which it conducts Yield Curve Control policy, but also how previous major episodes of extreme global bond market volatility had been triggered by an illiquid, malfunctioning JGB market, and Bank of Japan meetings as market moving catalysts.In light of these recent developments in policy experimentation and purposeful obfuscation by the central bank, Weston also provides an explainer on a "trading-day-in-the-life" of a Bank of Japan bond buying operation for a critical dose of clarity as we move forward with Bank of Japan's experimental processes.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bank Of Japan's Week Of Bond Market Meddling Spikes Global Yields

At the July 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan took markets by surprise (after "pre-announcing" its policy 10 hours prior during US trading hours and moving global currency, equity and bond markets) by making a significant change to its Yield Curve Control policy framework, in which it lifts the upper trading band on 10-year JGB yields from 0.50% to 1%. The central bank also made a major revision upwards on its inflation forecasts for fiscal year 2023 to 2.5%, well above its 2% target. This is the first policy change implemented under newly appointed Governor Ueda.While the consensus debate revolves around whether or not this is the start of Bank of Japan's exit from its outlier accommodative policies, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura believes that there is far more to the policy decision than just a "YCC tweak."Aided by utilizing financial media outlets to move markets and clear out existing positions, the Bank of Japan is attempting to wrestle its policy away from the hands of markets, and return it back under its own control by purposely introducing elements of confusion and uncertainty - which it labels as "flexibility."Weston gives a historic overview of how Yield Curve Control trading bands had been a market-creation in the first place, what the market implications are, and why this policy change fundamentally reshapes how the Bank of Japan and market participants interact.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bank Of Japan Takes A Major Gamble With Yield Curve Control

The final week of July ends with the three major central banks’ policy decisions - the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan - each with their own set of issues and tools respectively, and all of which are highly interconnected with one another. However, the economic backdrop is completely unique this time - as Japan now has a higher inflation rate than the US, while still in easing mode.Would the Bank of Japan really begin tightening monetary policy, just as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others are finished? Just a hint of policy convergence, particularly between the ECB and the Bank of Japan, can have significant, widespread market impact.Weston Nakamura begins the episode with an update on the PBOC’s daily fixing of the Chinese yuan exchange rate. He then discusses the Bank of Japan once again leaking their own policy through media outlets ahead of the official policy meeting. And finally, Weston takes a look across various markets globally, and assesses what may occur if sentiment around policy divergence shifts to policy convergence.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Defining Week For Major Central Banks & Global Markets

With the strongest daily yuan fixing since November 2022, along with state banks sustaining dollar-selling, and the adjustment of a cross border financing rule to further discourage yuan sell pressure all in combination, the People’s Bank of China was able to forcefully rally the yuan significantly higher.In addition, China's USD-denominated junk bond market sees its worst three-day plunge so far this year, as property developers Wanda Group, as well as two state-backed firms signal imminent default.Weston Nakamura ties the efforts of the PBOC to uplift the yuan with the severe volatility in China's USD-bond markets, and points to China's alarming behavior that something of utmost concern seems underway.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China Pushes Yuan Aggressively Higher As Corporate Bonds Implode

With China's Q2 GDP and retail sales figures missing consensus estimates for yet another round of data disappointment out of China, and the PBOC injecting a mere 3 billion yuan of liquidity to their 1-year MLF operation. Weston Nakamura looks at currency and commodity markets as weakness across China's economic landscape continues to be left unattended by policymakers' lack of stimulus measures.Weston also discusses why Wall Street economists seem to be caught off-guard by China's economic data deterioration time and again, particularly in the first half of 2023.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Wall Street Keeps Overestimating China's Macro Data

US inflation figures came in considerably softer than expectations, and global currencies, bonds, equities and commodities rose at the expense of the U.S. dollar.But what happens when US CPI is now below Japan CPI? What does that mean for markets (namely the yen), and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting (with direct implications on global bond markets)?Weston Nakamura discusses the US vs Japan inflation differential as it relates to the Bank of Japan policy, pointing to recent history as precedence. Weston also gives an overview of Asia currencies for the week, and their respective performances against a crumbling USD, with particular focus on the futures-driven yen move, as well as the lagging Chinese yuan.Listen To Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital on weaponizing the yen:"China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell"--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Asia Currencies Fight Back Against The Dollar As US Inflation Cools

In today's episode, Weston Nakamura explains the recent price action of the world's worst performing currencies in 2023: the Japanese yen's sudden surge as options on futures expire and crowded positions close, and the Chinese yuan in crisis mode as the authorities continue to urgently exercise multiple yuan-supportive measures. Weston suggests that should the yen short covering gain momentum, global yields may fall in tandem.Lastly, Weston follows up on his recent and ongoing thesis of the leadership shakeup currently underway at the People's Bank of China with additional thoughts - namely, why the central bank is currently operating without an official governor in place?And what exactly happened to the recently re-appointed (and subsequently fired) incumbent Governor Yi Gang that made his presence as the PBOC Governor so unacceptably toxic?--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

People's Bank Of China Is Running Without A Governor

In order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days.In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese yuan - a theory that Michael and Weston have been discussing on an ongoing matter.Weston also discusses another potential working theory on China’s economic weakness as inflationary for the developed economies, contrary to mainstream views. Follow Michael Howell on Twitter:https://twitter.com/crossbordercaphttp://www.crossbordercapital.com--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell

Over the weekend, the top brass at China’s central bank Yi Gang (PBOC Governor) and Guo Shuqing (PBOC Communist Party Chief) were suddenly removed from their posts after having been reappointed by President Xi Jinping less than four months ago. Meanwhile, PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng has been elevated to the role of Party Secretary at PBOC, and is also expected to be named Governor of the PBOC shortly. Pan is also currently the Director of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the foremost currency management body which oversees China’s massive $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. The consensus narrative out of financial media on this major development has been that “Pan is a continuity candidate,” providing stability in a time of escalating economic risk (which, as Weston Nakamura points out, is an absurd takeaway in itself). However, according to Weston Nakamura, what the policy stimulus preferences of the newly appointed leadership is not what key headline is - rather, this is part of a bigger effort from China as of late - to somehow stem the sharply declining yuan.In light of the outright failure from broader financial media to properly inform and analyze a major central bank reshuffling its top level officials in the midst of market and economic turmoil, Weston Nakamura presents a deep-dive explanation and analysis on what is currently underway, namely:Pan Gongsheng has been elevated with great urgency to the very top of China’s central bank for one reason only - to defend the yuan as it approaches a 15-year breakdown level. This is a must-watch/listen, and share episode of Market Depth.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What The Sudden Leadership Shakeup At The People's Bank Of China Is Really About

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda surprisingly stole the show when making his first international English appearance since taking office at the ECB’s annual gathering of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal this week, during a live panel with fellow peer central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey.Clips from the event of the new face of the Bank of Japan have been going viral, as the soft-spoken academic made light-hearted jokes onstage in an otherwise tense moment in macro policy. Yet, there is far more to take away from the event than just Governor Ueda delighting the crowd.Weston Nakamura breaks down the new head of the BOJ’s behavior, including what the otherwise outgoing Governor avoids answering, and points to a very telling picture of the overall modern day inter-central bank relationships.Footage and clips from European Central Bank ECB Forum on Central Banking - Policy Panelhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

 Governor Ueda’s First International Appearance Reveals The Bank Of Japan’s Influence

After being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert.Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Treasury yields to this day.Weston then discusses a potential major risk catalyst this week - in which Governor Ueda will be making his first English-speaking public appearance for the international community since becoming Governor of the Bank of Japan in Sintra, Portugal, sharing a stage with Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and ECB President and host Lagarde - accentuating the policy divergences that have re-emerged. See Weston’s Twitter thread: JPY Price Action Explainer:<a href="https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20">https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20</a>--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

All Eyes On The Yen Getting Crushed As Bank Of Japan’s Ueda Makes His First International Appearance

Following last week's series of rate cuts that were met with tepid market response, China delivers another -10 basis point rate cut to its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates before market open today in-line with its recent measures - only this time, markets pulled sharply back. Is this the start of a new market paradigm? Weston Nakamura scrutinizes market price action out of China today in search of the answer. Weston also observes what broader major equity indices' recent price behavior looks like absent U.S. market participants upon a U.S. market holiday, and tests his recent themes and findings presented in prior episodes of the Market Depth podcast.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Are Equity Markets Starting To Price In China Risk?

Off the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks. In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer. Weston discusses how the Bank of Japan leaving their Yield Curve Control policy unchanged shows that Governor Ueda may indeed be trapped in the legacy framework, and that it's fellow major central banks who are implementing hawkish policies are are depending on the BOJ to remain in place as the world's final QE anchor.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The European Central Bank Takes Shots At The Bank Of Japan

After months of wide-scale economic deterioration in China, the People's Bank of China and the central government are finally taking action with three waves of stimulus measures today. The PBOC first makes a surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate before market open on Tuesday, followed by a Bloomberg report of a broad based stimulus package at the end of the trading day, and finally a late-evening announcement of cuts to three standing lending facility rates.Yet, the overall market response was that of deafening silence. Weston Nakamura walks through each of the stimulus measures, as well as what the anemic market response means, and what to look for next.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Are Markets Responding To China's Sudden Rate Cuts?

The US equity market's performance, particularly in outperforming tech stocks, is not what it seems. Weston Nakamura lays out his analysis and observations on how the Nasdaq 100 Index is being driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, Weston explains how the ongoing issue of weak market breadth and narrow participation is also a byproduct of the immense foreign equity inflows into Japanese stocks.This is a differentiated explanation from an angle of global flows into and out of US, Japan and European equity markets - and what to expect next.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why Is The Nasdaq Rallying?

The sustained and incredibly resilient Japan equity rally crashed today - despite broader indices left relatively unscathed (although S&amp;P E-Mini futures also followed Japan indices sharply downward during Asia hours).Why did this occur, and what does it mean for the world's favorite and best performing market, as well as broader markets globally?Weston Nakamura breaks down the three sell-catalysts from the day: Chinese exports data that came in weaker than expectations, the -7% plunge in the Turkish lira, and officials in parliament discussing the unwinding of Bank of Japan's 37 trillion yen worth of equity ETF holdings - the latter two being the actual market moving catalysts.Weston talks about the immediate market risk that the lira may pose if it begins a runaway momentum sell-off that forces Japan retail to liquidate other assets, and also discusses the implications of Bank of Japan selling its equity index ETF holdings.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Japan's Market Pullback Flashes Warnings For Global Markets

The Reserve Bank of Australia shocks markets again, hiking rates for a second consecutive time after having paused once before, and thereby setting precedence for the June FOMC next week, when the Fed is expected to “skip” a rate hike. Weston Nakamura explains the significance of the RBA’s policy behavior to other major central banks.Weston also shows how and why AUD matters to risk assets, such as the S&amp;P500 index, and explains how the (in)famous AUDJPY carry trade works - noting that AUDJPY is currently re-correlating with the S&amp;P500 price action.Finally, Weston shares his big revelation of the day with regards to his ongoing working theory of the China policy insider trading - discovering that he may have been incorrect in his reading of the China Property and Development Sector indices’ price action, but in doing so, ultimately provides more clarity on what may be happening in the peculiar market behavior in Chinese equities.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why The Aussie Yen Carry Trade Matters To Risk Assets

Following up from Friday's episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura reviews the global equity markets' initial reactions to China's after-hours headline for new stimulus targeted at the Chinese real estate, property and development sectors on Friday evening in Asia. The market impact was significant across the world, with stocks like Caterpillar pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 2% at US close to outperform the S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq indices in immediate reaction, as well as it's Japanese peer Komatsu and other machinery stocks driving the Nikkei 225 index by over 2% to another 33-year high at Asia market open on Monday.In fact, the only major equity market region and sector that did not participate with an initial upside reaction was China's property and development sector indices - a strange phenomenon, given the direct relevance of the catalyst. Weston once again examines whether China's policy insiders may be revealing a clearer picture of the policy intent as reflected in market price action and behavior, prior to, and after the stimulus headline.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Global Markets Are Responding To China's Stimulus

Chinese shares in the Hang Seng Index staged a massive recovery rally to end the week in which it temporarily fell into official bear market territory, and uplifted the entire region for a broad based equity market surge during the Asia trading session.Then, after Asia markets close, Bloomberg reports that China will unveil a new stimulus package to support the systematically critical and increasingly dangerous, debt-ridden property and development sector - which subsequently ignited a strong, risk-on rally across global indices. Weston Nakamura takes a deep look into the peculiar chronology of the price action in Chinese property and development sector indices - and offers a differentiated take on whether this is indeed the long-awaited turning point for China to proactively stimulate the world's second largest economy, or if this is an empty symbolic gesture. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Is It Too Late For China's New Stimulus Measures?

A lousy Manufacturing PMI reading out of China pulled the Hang Seng index officially into bear market territory, sent the yuan crashing through 7.10, and seemed to have set off a broader, risk-off market move that reverberated across asset classes globally. But, did yet another piece of weak economic data from China really spook global markets - particularly the previously China-resilient DM equity indices such as Japan? After all, Asia equities ex-China have been leading the world higher for several weeks, ignoring one disappointing data release out of China after another. What (else) actually happened to stop the market momentum today? Weston Nakamura points to technical market mechanics that are also behind the selling activity - namely, month-end portfolio rebalancing flows and activity on outperforming Japan and A.I. related equities as a primary culprit for the market reversal. Weston notes that without recognizing such market mechanics, we may be mistakenly attributing market behavior to China, when in reality, equity market price action may have very little to do with a weak data print out of China all along.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

When Markets De-Risk, But Not Decouple (from China)

We are in the midst of key conferences for markets - from the CLSA Japan Summit in Tokyo, to A.I. focused Computex in Taiwan, to China-themed conferences by Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong and JP Morgan in Shanghai.Weston Nakamura takes a look into using these conferences as potential near term, directional turning points for markets - and presents the case for a potential larger trend reversal for a pause in upside for Japan equities, and a rebound upward in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, based on these conference events.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can Industry Conferences Be Used As Market Indicators?

Prior to Asia markets open, major headlines came out of Washington that a debt ceiling deal had been made - and Asia equity indices, particularly in Japan, had traded positively on the day. With the US and parts of European markets closed for holiday, Asia was the only barometer of market reaction. But, just how much of the upside was due to the debt ceiling, if any? After all, China and Hong Kong had yet another down day, and the Nikkei 225 Index has been clocking in new three-decade-high levels throughout the month. Weston Nakamura points to the real driver of equity markets today - continued bullish momentum on A.I. and semiconductor related themes, as markets largely shrug off the US debt ceiling, until forced to do so. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Did Asia Markets Respond To The US Debt Ceiling Deal?

May was the worst month for markets that have bet on the China reopen theme - and this final week was particularly bad.Weston Nakamura walks through various markets - from equities, to commodities, to fixed income, and of course, the yuan, and shows how each asset class is in agreement - the China reopen theme is dead. What's more, there is still room to the downside in many of these markets.Weston also discusses how he is framing up trading a widely expected rate cut from the PBOC.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Markets Give Up On The China Reopening

Despite Fitch putting the US's credit rating on negative watch, global markets are largely brushing off debt-ceiling risk. Weston Nakamura comments on the knee-jerk market reaction to the Fitch headline of strength in the yen and in gold, and also provides color on how the largest foreign creditors to the United States, the Japanese institutional investors, are viewing a potential US default, and what they are doing in the US Treasury markets. Weston also provides a potential trade set up in the event of a US technical default outcome.Weston then discusses the massive market impact on Asia shares during the trading session off of Nvidia's huge guidance beat - as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, TSMC, SK Hynix and other stocks across the Asia region rallied, and thereby lifted the Nikkei225 index back into positive territory. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nvidia Reignites A Global Rally In A.I. Stocks

After hitting new three-decade-highs day after day, Japan's incredible equity market rally finally comes to an end. Notably, Japan's market direction, both to the upside as well as down, has been driving the broader global equity markets directionally in tandem - putting in the top tick on index futures down to the minute.Weston Nakamura dives into futures markets daily trading data from Japan Exchange and analyzes exactly who was buying, and who was selling, by participant - and finds that despite the downturn in the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices, foreigners remain net buyers of Japan equities. Therefore, it seems that there may still be upside in Japan, and therefore in global equities on the other side of this pullback.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Japan Finally Breaks And Takes Global Equity Markets Down

While China’s PBOC leaves their Loan Prime Rates unchanged as expected, the central bank issues an official statement on Friday warning of FX market intervention, should the yuan’s precipitous decline continue. Nonetheless, the yuan continued its downside move during Monday’s Asia trading session, as Wall Street estimates further price out the once-expected recovery. Weston Nakamura discusses the yuan’s weakness in context of “USD strength.”Then onto Japan, where the Nikkei225 and TOPIX indices continue their relentless marches higher for an 8th consecutive day, to new 3-decade levels. Weston Nakamura discusses how this current market setup may be one of the “once-per-decade” Japan equity explosions higher, given the foreign inflows and positioning, as well as the coincident rise in implied volatility that is often present when Japan has its episodes of “crashing to the upside.”--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Is Japan About To Crash, Or Explode Higher?

The Chinese yuan, which had been in recent accelerated decline, hitting new year-to-date lows, has now crossed through a very key level into the 7-handle for onshore USDCNY. Furthermore, the currency's sharp move lower seems to confirm the weak macro data releases of late.Weston Nakamura discusses the Chinese yuan's price action, and explains its correlation across asset classes and markets - including the S&amp;P500, copper prices, the Hang Seng Property Index, and more. Weston also provides implications of what the falling currency could mean for markets going forward.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chinese Yuan Plummets, What Next?

China once again misses consensus estimates on three of their latest data releases today, showing weakness in retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, as well as a record high 20% youth unemployment rate.Given the deluge of macro data out of China so far this month, Weston Nakamura organizes and presents a clear, full picture of where China currently stands regarding the state of the domestic consumer, industrial manufacturing, and loans, credit and investments - the results of which point to an economy unable to regain traction following the sudden lifting of their strict COVID policies.In light of the TOPIX index hitting a new 33-year "bubble-level" high, and Japan as the world's best performing equity market globally in 2023, Weston also discusses the bear case for the Japan equity outperformance as seen by domestic Japanese institutional investors.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--orDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hopes For Global Growth Fade As China Data Disappoints Again

As the first round of Turkish general elections result in a runoff round, with President Erdogan facing his toughest political challenge yet, Turkish assets have been exhibiting volatility - as one would expect given the uncertainty. However, the one asset class that remains strangely stable (thus far) is the Turkish Lira, as continued state interventions dampen any sharp selling pressure from plunging deep into new record lows (for now). Weston Nakamura does a deep dive into the Turkish lira, and the often overlooked significance that the lira has had on global markets, citing two instances in particular: the 2020 rally in gold and Bitcoin, and the December 2021 Christmas reversal rally in global risk assets.Weston then finishes with how the lira may impact markets, including the Japan equity markets, gold, and Bitcoin in the given market setup, with the runoff elections looming at the end of the month.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Why Turkish Elections And The Lira Matter To Global Macro Markets

In this week-in-review, Weston Nakamura follows up with market themes from earlier in the week. Starting with the frenzy and crash in Chinese bank stocks against a resilient Japanese equity market, Weston revisits the Japan - China market divergence call. Then, its over to Niigata Japan, where G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers have convened to discuss inflation, Russian sanctions, banking crises, and a host of other measures - but instead, find themselves with only one issue in mind: the looming US debt ceiling debate.Finally, Weston follows up with market reactions to earnings out of Nissan Motor and Honda Motor, after steelmaker JFE Holdings had just raised guidance citing strong production demand from the automotive sector, no longer hindered by a semiconductor chip supply crunch.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--orDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Navigating A Wild Week Of Market Drivers

In today’s episode, Weston Nakamura breaks down China’s latest trade data for April, which saw strong but declining export growth, and a surprise contraction in imports - and what this says about the state of the China “re-open” theme, and the broader global demand picture.Weston also goes through the chronology of another day of speculative frenzy in Chinese financial stocks, which may have hit an intraday reversal today for downside momentum in the immediate.Weston then discusses the Japanese equity market - which is the one major market that remains resilient against the China-led downside, as the TOPIX Index breaks a new 52-week high, and the Nikkei 225 Index approaches a key resistance level on the back of foreign inflows at massive scale.Finally, Weston discusses Japan steelmaker JFE Holdings 14% post-earnings rally, as the management's positive outlook on steel demand from the automotive sector, driven by a normalization in the semiconductor chip supply shortage, has potential wide scale implications.

Chinese Equities About To Break, As Japan Is About To Break Out

Upon returning from Golden Week holidays in Japan and China, Chinese bank shares went on an absolute tear higher, with some of the biggest lenders' stocks hitting their +10% intraday limit up on the heels of positive headlines on net interest margins. However, the bigger macro picture in China does not warrant such a historic surge in Chinese banks. Furthermore, the last time that Chinese banks hit limit up was in July 2015, followed by the historic PBOC yuan devaluation, and the subsequent cross-asset, global volatility that had ensued thereafter.Weston Nakamura discusses today's price action in China (and indeed the world's) largest bank shares, as well as what else is ahead for this week out of Asia with global market impact and relevance.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Does The Surge In Chinese Banks Signal Trouble Ahead?

Weston Nakamura sits down with a special guest on Market Depth: Taka Kato, former head of trading at Bitflyer, Japan's largest crypto exchange, and trader at Goldman Sachs Japan, in a wide ranging discussion of Japan markets, policy, and global impact.Taka first gives his take on the year to date rally in Bitcoin from his vantage point at a major crypto exchange.Weston and Taka then talk Bank of Japan policy and Governor Ueda's course of action in the near and Long term - giving Weston a revelation as to why foreign macro hedge funds insist on participating in the infamous "widow-maker" trade.Taka and Weston also dive into the Japan investor base, responsible for the largest foreign asset holdings in the world, and their behavioral traits.Finally, Taka gives his bullish view on the Japan equity markets.Follow Taka Kato on Twitter at MMT2Globalhttps://twitter.com/MMT2Global--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Japan: The Great Global Macro Driver with Taka Kato

The RBA shocked global markets when they hiked policy rates by 25 basis points for their May policy meeting, after having just paused their aggressive rate hiking cycle in the prior meeting, in order to examine the effects of their year-long measures in tightening policy. Some will interpret the RBA's decision as a forward indicator for other major central banks' respective hiking and pausing cycles. However, Weston Nakamura discusses broader takeaways from the RBA with applications to the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and other central bank policies.Weston also discusses the currency markets in reaction to the RBA shock rate hike - namely the Aussie Dollar against the yen, and how the yen can serve as a useful base currency pair to read market reactions as central banks continue to release their respective policy decisions in the immediate term.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--orDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What Does the Reserve Bank of Australia Restarting Rate Hikes Mean For Other Central Banks?

Ever since Warren Buffett's endorsement of Japan equities during his recent visit to Tokyo, weekly data from Japan Ministry of Finance shows foreign investors have been buying the most Japan equities on record. This coincides with Japan equity indices' recent outperformance relative to its developed market majors. However, Weston Nakamura warns of a key resistance level on the horizon for the Nikkei 225 index.Weston also discusses the surprise miss in China Manufacturing PMI, and its impact on commodities. Finally, Weston talks about the upcoming major central bank decisions for the week, and to look to the currency markets against the yen for the "cleanest" reading of market reactions.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Foreign Investors Are Buying Japan Stocks at Record Pace

For a "policy unchanged" outcome in-line with consensus, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's first monetary policy meeting was a wild day for markets. Weston Nakamura walks through the chronology of the day, starting with a major pre-announcement press leak, a delayed policy release time, and an ambiguous press conference that sent the yen tumbling sharply.Weston analyzes the methods and practices of policy communication, media, and markets, which this new leadership has seemed to embrace in a departure from his predecessor Governor Kuroda. Ultimately, Governor Ueda's first policy meeting has left far more questions unanswered than before.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Chaotic First Meeting For Bank of Japan Governor Ueda

As we head into the first Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new Governor Ueda tomorrow, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura discusses the broad consensus view of a "no policy change" outcome, as Japan CPI has moderated, and market pressures have alleviated since the March meeting.However, Weston also makes the case for why there may very well be a surprise decision to come from the Bank of Japan's new and unknown leadership- with major consequences to global markets.Here is everything you need to know ahead of the April Bank of Japan policy meeting and press conference.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--orDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Will the Bank of Japan Shock Global Markets Tomorrow?

For Day 2 of Bank of Japan Week, Weston Nakamura explains how the Bank of Japan, through years of radical and experimental easing policy, has cornered itself against markets - both in the near term with Yield Curve Control, as well as the longer term by being forced to support the world’s most indebted nation’s fiscal sustainability. Weston discusses the background history of how Yield Curve Control’s trading bands were crafted, and why they are a double edged sword. Finally, Weston makes the case that aside from near-term attempts at “normalization,” ultimately, the Bank of Japan will be forced back into some form of JGB purchasing and monetary accommodation.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The End Game Scenario for the Bank of Japan

To kick off Day 1 of Bank of Japan Week, culminating in an extremely critical first Bank of Japan meeting under new leadership in a decade, Weston first gives his takeaways on the two headlines from overnight - Sankei News’ press test of a comprehensive policy review, as well as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s latest comments in Parliament today.Weston then discusses just how the Bank of Japan may potentially cause major global market disruptions, particularly in the sovereign bond markets, in two ways: trillions in Japanese capital liquidating foreign assets to repatriate back home in favor of higher JGB yields, and violent market turmoil triggered by an explosion of rate market volatility.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Would the Bank of Japan Destroy Global Markets and Roil Central Banks?

To round up a week of key global macro data out of Asia, Weston Nakamura provides his big picture take on the surprise upside beat in China GDP and retail sales, as well as an overview on the latest Japan inflation figures.Heading into Bank of Japan next week, Weston also provides additional context from the corporate angle, as credit issuers, asset managers and others prepare for the end of an era of easy money. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can China Offset A Global Growth Slowdown?

Goldman Sachs reveals an unusually weak result from their powerhouse fixed income trading division - the only one of its peers to report year-on-year declines. This is particularly strange, given the highly volatile quarter in rates markets, which typically bodes well for Goldman's trading profits.Weston Nakamura explains how Goldman's fixed income trading miss signals a broader and far more troubling market picture - one that is being completely overlooked by market participants and media.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What Goldman's Earnings Miss is Warning Markets About

Weston Nakamura outlines the key macro data with global macro market implications for this week - as they all stem from the Asia region. Namely - retail sales, industrial production and GDP figures from China (and why China's "fake GDP" figures are nonetheless usefully informative), and Japan CPI at the end of the week, as the country's final inflation reading before the consequential April Bank of Japan meeting.Weston also dives into the recent surge in gold prices, as spot gold nears its all time record high of $2,080 - and how he approaches gold price action as more of a currency pair against the US dollar, rather than a standalone commodity price.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Critical Week of Data out of Asia this Week

In this week's roundup of global macro and market developments, Weston Nakamura flags key points from the World Bank &amp; IMF Spring Meetings held in Washington D.C. this week, as IMF projects Asia to contribute to 70% of global growth for this year, Bank of Japan's brand new Governor Ueda and his first comments on policy to his global peers, and a surprising one-on-one meeting between China's central bank head and Fed Chair Powell.Weston also discusses Softbank divesting the last of its Alibaba holdings, and finally, comments on his explosive tweet regarding Warren Buffett's trip to Tokyo this week - and Weston's speculative theory that ties the Oracle of Omaha with a potential signal for policy out of the Bank of Japan.See Weston's tweet on Warren Buffett and the Bank of Japan <a href="https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1646347813142564864?s=20">here</a>:--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Who Wins When Markets Fight Policymakers?

As global markets await the US CPI release for March 2023, Weston Nakamura shares a trade that he has opened this week: Long USDJPY, with the data drop as a potential market moving catalyst. Weston discusses his framework for the trade- including the unique market stance of having last Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data mixed into the CPI reaction, the rate markets' setup which parallels that of the 2022 Yield Curve Control environment, and broader market positioning.This is an opportunity to follow along with a live trade, as Weston will update in coming episodes accordingly.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How I'm Trading The Inflation Data Drop

In today's Market Depth, Weston Nakamura discusses the Bank of Korea holding rates unchanged (again), a surprise decline in China CPI, as well as falling CPI - and what it may mean for PBOC policy going forward, and the Bank of Japan's first press conference under new leadership with Governor Ueda, and Deputy Governors Uchida and Himino.Weston also discusses Warren Buffet's comments from an interview with Nikkei that Berkshire Hathaway intends to add to their holdings in Japan trading houses. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Buffet Doubles Down on Japan

To wrap up the first week of a new quarter following a tumultuous month of March, Weston Nakamura reviews policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause-and-assess, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s unexpected hawkish 50 basis point hike.Weston also discusses a big development out of Samsung’s preliminary earnings, in which they had announced production cuts in memory chips, and the wide scale implications to the industry worldwide.Finally, Weston gives his initial takeaways right off the heels of retiring Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s farewell press conference - in which the outgoing monetary figurehead had some surprising final words before handing the keys to a new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, who begins his tenure on Monday.We end with a clip of Governor Kuroda speaking during a panel session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20th, 2023.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Week of Central Bankers Hiking, Pausing, and Leaving

Following up from the last episode of Market Depth “The Most Critical Month for the Bank of Japan is Here” - Weston Nakamura provides a deep dive on currencies, namely the yen. Weston gives a background on what drives the yen directionally and explains why the currency strengthens despite the Bank of Japan’s endless, record-sized bond buying.In addition, Weston reveals his own non-consensus take on the outcome of the upcoming April Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new and unknown Governor Ueda (a viewpoint which may surprise many). Lastly, Weston discusses some unconventional trade ideas and position structures to play the biggest macro catalyst of the month.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Will the Bank of Japan Move Markets?

In this special edition episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura presents what lies ahead for a historic and critical month of April 2023 in global financial markets, as leadership change at the Bank of Japan will see the end of Governor Kuroda, the last major central banker of the QE era, and the start of little known incoming Governor Ueda. Weston does a deep dive into the state of Japan investors - the world's largest foreign capital allocators, and their behavioral traits. As uncertainty, volatility and risk builds up by the day as time closes in on Ueda's first meeting as the new BOJ head at the end of April- Weston also gives his personal views on what lies ahead for Bank of Japan and the ensuing market impact.Weston also gives a quick take on the Reserve Bank of Australia, who decided to pause their rate hiking and assess the "Long and variable lags," joining their policy leading peers at Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea "on hold," and implications for the Fed and ECB.Additionally, Weston makes parallels between OPEC's surprise production cut that sent crude oil prices soaring, and the Bank of Japan - the "OPEC of global fixed income."--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Most Critical Month for Bank of Japan and Market Impact Is Here

To wrap up what was arguably one of the most critical and history shaping months in global markets, Weston Nakamura takes a cross-asset dive into the month of March 2023.What was really behind the collapse in global bank shares? Why are rates behaving with such extreme levels of record volatility? What does the Bank of Japan have to do with all of this?Weston provides a different angle and explanation apart from narratives of US and European bank failures for what really happened in markets this month, and what lies ahead.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What This Wild Month In Markets Has Exposed

Alibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China.In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets.Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this week, as well as his read on no-trade JGBs potentially signaling the end of the recent rate volatility.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Breaking Down The Alibaba Break-Up

In this episode of Market Depth, Weston discusses yet another hedge fund taking big losses, $15bn AUM Rokos Capital Management, due to unprecedented swings in front-end rates.Weston also gives further perspective as to why these hedge fund positioning blow-ups matter - as their trading behavior is both causing, and is the consequence of extreme levels of heightened volatility. Furthermore, these fund implosions may very well be distorting market signaling, and our reading of "what markets are telling us" - and that perhaps the massive dispersion between the Fed's guidance and market pricing may not be as wide as it seems.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Volatility in Rates Claims More Victims

Following the initial launch of the Market Depth podcast and a few episodes in, Weston Nakamura unveils his new “trading jacket,” and explains the concept of how the making of each episode of Market Depth is approached. Weston then discusses Japan’s February CPI reading, which came down sharply for the first decline in 5 months - and the impact of the governments energy subsidies on inflation.Finally, Weston examines bond flow data to follow up on his previous episodes explaining the record volatility in rates, as well as price action drivers of the yen.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Don’t Misread The Bank of Japan

Heading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late. Weston also flags Hong Kong’s HIBOR rate spike, and the Turkish Lira breaking into new lows. Finally, Weston discusses FOMC market expectations, and his views on the post-Fed meeting trading environment.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hedge Funds Blow Up From Rate Volatility Ahead of The Fed

Market Depth: Monday March 20, 2023After a historic and last-minute deal of UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Weston Nakamura examines the first market reaction out of Asia. With rates continuing to fall alongside Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders getting wiped out, it is difficult to discern if macro or bottom up forces may be influencing global bank shares' directional movements. Weston therefore takes a look at specifically HSBC and Standard Chartered stocks listed in Hong Kong for a market read on the weekend's developments.Weston also points to JPY futures as a contributing factor for gold to break above $2000. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Asia’s Market Reaction To Credit Suisse & UBS

Market Depth: Friday March 17, 2023--Amidst turmoil in the US regional bank sector, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a week of highly unusual (if not record setting) price swings across asset classes, including non-US megacap banks indices in Europe and Japan, Credit Suisse shares, bonds and CDS divergences, and DM rates markets - specifically US 2Y Treasury yields, German 2Y bund yields, and Japan 10Y JGB yields. Weston ties all of the erratic movements occurring in assets that should otherwise be liquid and stable back to a common theme - years of heavy-handed central bank interventions that have altered, if not damaged, market functioning and stability, resulting in volatility and illiquidity that only exposes itself in real time moments of crisis. For the most extreme example of this dynamic currently underway, Weston points towards the JGB market, for which the Bank of Japan's unprecedented intervention has killed market functioning, as a potential look into the future for the other sovereign rate markets. For further insights- Weston discusses the Bank of Japan and their impact on the JGB market in depth in the previous episode of Market Depth, as well as On The Margin with Michael Ippolito.--Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Week of Wild Swings In Bank Stocks & Rates

In this debut episode of Market Depth, Tokyo- based Weston Nakamura takes a deep dive look into Haruhiko Kuroda’s decade-long tenure as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, who leaves his post as the most consequential major central banker in the modern era. Governor Kuroda was appointed (then re-appointed for a rare second term) by Prime Minister Abe in 2013, specifically to carry out radically aggressive monetary easing measures- for which Kuroda delivered upon from his very first policy meeting with QQE. A decade later, Kuroda certainly has delivered- perhaps even overdelivered on the “easing without backing down” promise by conducting the world’s largest and now increasingly controversial experiment in monetary policy easing: yield curve control.As Kuroda now hands the keys over to a new governor, the Bank of Japan now owns more than half of the Japanese government bond market, and is capping long term yields at explicit levels by policy, battling market forces that are pushing for a higher yielding environment against a backdrop of inflation at 40 year highs. Despite a 4% CPI reading in Japan, Governor Kuroda’s only regret is that he “was unable to achieve the 2% inflation goal.”Whether Kuroda had achieved his objectives or not is up for debate. The question is - in the process of attempting to pull Japan out of a deflationary spiral, did Governor Kuroda create a meteoric 500 trillion yen bubble in JGBs? And what happens when he is no longer there to keep the largest bubble in history inflated?--Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Governor Kuroda: The Decade’s Most Consequential Central Banker

Introducing Market Depth, hosted by Weston Nakamura, a podcast giving you direct access into the Asia Pacific region. Reporting from Tokyo, Weston provides a unique insight into how the region influences global macro forces driving markets all around the world. With his extensive background at both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies specialising in equity &amp; derivative sales, this is the perfect podcast to cut through the noise and get the key takeaways before your trading day starts.--Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To Blockworks Macro: https://www.youtube.com/@BlockworksHQGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Introducing: Market Depth

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent twitter thread after this weeks ECB meeting. In this meeting, Lagarde gave an undoubtedly hawkish press conference to remind markets they have a lot further to go in their quest to fight inflation. Alfonso walks through how investors should interperit this hawkish tone from the ECB, and more importantly how it might effect your portfolio. To find out more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: This was the most important ECB meetings since the Draghi era: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1603409716339740672--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting(06:36) The ECB Is Leading Europe Into A Recession(08:13) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Most Important ECB Meeting Since The Draghi Era

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained". This week the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a bombshell report that made the rounds reporting on the roughly $100 Trillion in "hidden" USD debt. Alfonso walks through the mechanics of the report and dispels some of the doomsday scenarios that made some headlines. To find out more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/—Referenced In The Show:The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/usd-hidden-debt#details Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm—Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:14) King Dollar Matters(05:46) What’s This ‘‘Hidden Debt’’ All About?(09:18) Where Is The Problem?(14:27) Final Thoughts—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Steve Keen Professor of economics and creator of the Minsky software. Professor Keen joins the show to debunk the myth of government deficits by walking through the biggest misconceptions in the mechanics of money, government spending and private vs public sector deficits. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Professor Steve Keen: https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeenFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/--Referenced In The Show:  Building a New Economics: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:03) The Process of Money Creation(06:52) The Fiscal Spending of 2020(12:02) The Mechanics of Bond Issuance(15:47) How Government Spending Actually Works(28:07) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Professor Steve Keen: This Is How The Government Prints Money

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors". As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they assets that are return additive and low correlation assets.—As a listener of Boiler Room, you will be able to get access to TMC content for the entire 2023 by paying only 9 months instead of 12!  Check out which subscription tier suits you the most and grab your last chance to be an early bird subscriber using the discount code ‘‘TMC2’’! https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/—Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/—Referenced In The Show:Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/stupid-mistakes-macro-investors#details —Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:57) Common Mistakes &amp; How To Avoid Them(04:13) You Sure You’re Running 5 Positions, Or Is It Just 1?(06:58) Do Not Proxy Trade(09:08) Final Thoughts—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello: Three Principles To Successful Investing

Link to Jared's book - Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://amzn.to/3EQ0xxX On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jared Bibler author of Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con. Alfonso and Jared draw parallels between the financial fraud that took place in Iceland during the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent fallout of FTX. History doesn't repeat itselt, but it often rhymes. What is it that causes financial fraud and excessive leverage time and time again throughout history? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jared: https://twitter.com/jared_biblerFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/--Referenced In The Show:  All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/money-printing-myths#detailsIceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://icelandssecret.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong(03:37) The Untold Story of The World’s Biggest Con(11:54) Parallels With The FTX Fallout(15:55) History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes(21:17) How Did The Situation In Iceland End?(24:33) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jared Bibler: Iceland's Secret - The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023. With a focus on the cyclical &amp; secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real time and leading indicators, Eric evaluates the current cyclical trend in economic growth and inflation before sharing his outlook on what this means for markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearchFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/--Referenced In The Show: Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:23) Eric's Secular &amp; Cyclical Economic Outlook(06:37) Are We In A Recession?(13:21) Market's Are Not Priced For A Recession(20:08 )Market Outlook Into 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Eric Basmajian: Further Downside Ahead For Risk Asset's

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?". While equities have rallied in recent weeks, investors are split between wether this signals a market bottom, or a bear market rally. With the end of the year often posting positive equity returns, we have to dig under the surface and look at the bond market to help us. Alfonso walks through the signals the bond market is telling and describes how we can position to benefit from that, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! —Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/—Referenced In The Show: The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bond-market-talking#details Secure Your Spot on The Macro Compass! https://themacrocompass.substack.com/about—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:07) When The Bond Market Talks, You Better Listen(04:30) What Is This: 2001?(07:54) The Fed Pivot... Or Pause(11:07) What Is Happening In Markets? (14:40) The Macro Compass—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Markets Are Pricing A Fed Pause In 2023

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the recent rally in markets. In 2022, inflation remains Powell's single focus. After tightening financial conditions all year, markets in recent weeks have rallied on lower than expected CPI &amp; PPI prints. Julian walks through the dynamics that could be at play for an end of year rally, but holds conviction that markets are not priced for a recession in 2023. —Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:03) Are Equties Signalling A Bear Market Rally?(06:20) Inflation In The U.S(10:06) Markets Are Not Priced For A Recession(14:05) Equity Market Liquidity(19:16) The End of Hyper-Financialization(24:40) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Julian Brigden: Markets Are Not Priced For A Recession

''Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor. As a listener of Boiler Room, you can use the code ''Alf'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/--Follow Jack:<a href="%20https://twitter.com/JackFarley96"> https://twitter.com/JackFarley96</a>Follow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a>Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:27) October's CPI Report(15:30) Top Stories of The Week(25:25) FTX: Crypto's Lehman Moment(30:15) Launching The Macro Compass Platform--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Inflation Surprises, Stocks Rally & FTX Faces Bankruptcy

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for an update on the forces driving equity markets through the end of 2022 and into 2023. Mr Blonde walks through the 3 biggest factors driving markets today: U.S midterms, earnings &amp; the Fed. Being vocal about the bear market driven by the Fed's tightening cycle, Mr Blonde now sees the next leg of this bear market being driven by earnings revisions. To hear all this &amp; more, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ —Referenced In The Show: Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:50) The Next 3-6 Months In Equity Markets(03:28) Mid Term Election Impact?(07:45) Equity Earnings Season(11:39) What Is This: 2001?(14:51) Looking Ahead 6 Months Into 2023(18:24) The Powell Pivot(25:36) Final Thoughts—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mr Blonde: What's Ahead For The Stock Market Over The Next 3-6 Months

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish". This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it’s very premature to think about pausing”. Alfonso breaks down the Fed conference, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!—Referenced In The Show:A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/from-hawkish-to-more-hawkish#details Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 1, 2022: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1074__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:07) Powell's Press Conference(06:55) Powell Aims To Regain Credibility(10:19) A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish!(12:25) Monetary Plumbing: Treasury General Account &amp; Reverse Repo__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish!

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard for a discussion on "the non-Fed pivot". As central bankers around the world identify inflation as the common enemy, embarking on their fastest rate hike path in modern history, just what sort of fragilities are emerging at the edges? Dario takes a deep dive into the U.K, Canadian &amp; Australian economies as signs of fragility begin to emerge. Dario also discusses the real estate bubble's that have happened in these regions as they failed to de-leverage post 2008, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!—Referenced In The Show:<a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/sudden-change-of-heart#details%20">A Sudden Change of Heart? </a><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428">Housing IS the Business Cycle</a>--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:51) Dealing With Higher Interest Rates(05:29) Central Banks Are Having A Sudden Change of Heart(11:33) Can Central Banks Afford Not To Fight Inflation?(15:04) What Will Make Powell Pivot His Hawkish Stance?(19:08) Dario's Outlook For Markets Throughout 2022 &amp; Into 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dario Perkins: Central Banks Are Having A Sudden Change Of Heart

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds". After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds are viewing the world in this market condition. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show:  A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/chat-with-macro-hedge-funds#details--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:17) Housing IS The Business Cycle(04:51) Death By A Thousand Cuts Or A Systemic Risk Event?(08:02) Using The Last 10-Year Framework Won't Work(10:57) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Macro Hedge Funds Are Viewing The World | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Pension Funds Drama Explained".Leveraged bets, illiquid assets and pending liabilities have led to a UK pension fund crisis. How did pension funds end up in this tenuous state? Are US and European pensions next, and what does this mean for investment portfolios? Tune in to find out!-- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:The Pension Funds Drama Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/pension-fund-drama#details-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:34) Pension Funds 101(05:47) Everything Was Fine, Until Volatility Hit(08:46) Can This Happen To The US &amp; Europe?(11:21) Investment Implications-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

 The Pension Funds Drama Explained | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Frances Coppola to explain today's banking system and debunk the theory that money is "printed". Frances discusses the creation of money in the modern economy and how the money supply expands and contracts. We then explore the bank lending process, a bank's equity and what almost everyone gets wrong about bank reserves. Does government fiscal spending increase the money supply or just recycle it? Are bank reserves lent to other borrowers? What components comprise the total money in circulation? Tune in to find out!--Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/FrancesCoppola4Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:  The Case For People's Quantitative Easinghttps://www.amazon.com/Case-Peoples-Quantitative-Easing/dp/1509531300--Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:27 Who Prints Money?04:16 How Banks Make Loans06:07 What Everyone Gets Wrong About Bank Reserves19:46 Government Fiscal Spending, It's Circular24:00 Why Is This So Confusing? --Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How Banking & Money “Printing” Actually Works | Frances Coppola

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled “Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!”This week, Alfonso draws parallels between the 2000 - 2001 period by looking at inflation, equities &amp; bond market performance. As markets have caught many investors off guard this year, it’s important to look back throughout history to inform asset allocation. As Mark Twain famously said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Just how similar is the 2000 - 2001 period compared to today? To find out, you’ll have to tune in!--<a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">Follow Alfonso</a><a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">Follow Blockworks</a><a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">Subscribe To The Macro Compass</a><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter</a>--Referenced In The Show: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/back-to-2001#details">Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!</a>--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:45) Refreshing The Macro Framework(07:16) The Monetary Policy Stance Remains VERY TIGHT(10:06) The Powell Credibility Indicator(11:06) Early 2001 Is Here, Again!--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a timely update on the US dollar milkshake. Throughout 2022 the US dollar has continued to climb higher against most currencies around the world, most notably the Japanese Yen, British Pound &amp; the Euro. Many years ago, Brent outlined his dollar milkshake thesis stating that as long as the current monetary system stays intact, the US dollar will continue to outperform major currencies around the world and cause some real damage in the process. Brent now joins us for an update on his thesis, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--<a href="https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund">Follow Brent</a><a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">Follow Alfonso</a><a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">Follow Blockworks</a><a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">Subscribe To The Macro Compass</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">Blockworks Daily Newsletter</a>--Referenced In The Show: <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation%20">Bank of England announces gilt market operation</a><a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details">Fed Pivot My A*S</a>-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:36) An Update On The U.S Dollar(03:49) Fed Pivot? Think Again...(05:24) Intervention In The FX Markets(08:34) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied(11:40) How Effective Are FX Reserves At Saving Currencies?(15:13) The Dollar Milkshake Theory(22:17) The Great Deleveraging(25:28) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Brent Johnson: An Update On The Dollar Milkshake Theory

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "FX Markets Are On Fire". In 2022, FX markets are back with a vengeance. For the last 20+ years, developed markets’ economic models were based on a two-tier system of globalization and credit creation. In 2022, as inflation continues to shock the global financial system, economic models are being flipped upside down as some of the strongest currencies, now become some of the weakest. In this video, Alfonso walks through the strongest, the weakest &amp; the safest currencies in today's environment by identifying six key indicators, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a>Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Referenced In The Show: FX Markets Are On Fire: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fx-markets-on-fire#details--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:29) FX Fundamentals Are Back With A Vengeance(05:45) Japan: Is The YCC Ever Going To Stop?(08:49) Switzerland: Strong and Orthodox(11:12) The UK: Oh Dear…(12:42) The U.K Mortgage System(14:02) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

FX Markets Are Back With A Vengeance | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Trust Me: It Will Be Enough". After this weeks FOMC meeting, as Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets struggled to price in Fed policy. With echoes of Mario Draghi's famous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Powell highlighted to markets that "it will be enough", the Fed will be able to break the back of inflation. So just how will markets reach to Powell's "much tighter, for much longer" stance? To find out, you'll have to tune in!-- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show:  Trust Me: It Will Be Enough: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:48) The Fed Dot Plot(03:55) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker(07:06) Risk Asset's &amp; Equities(08:37) Final Thoughts-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Powell Signals "Much Tighter, For Much Longer" To Markets | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, for a discussion on FX markets. As the U.S Dollar wrecking ball keeps marching higher, just how is the currency landscape evolving in both emerging and developed markets. How important is energy in determining FX rates in 2022 with the backdrop of a global energy crisis affecting Europe’s current accounts? Finally, Alf &amp; Brent end the discussion talking about the BoJ and their yield curve control. But to hear that, you’ll have to tune in!-- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brentFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:56) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC(04:40) The Effect of Energy On FX(12:13) How Energy Bailouts Will Effect FX In Europe(17:12) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Central Bank's Credibility Is On The Line | Brent Donnelly

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for a discussion on the forces driving equity markets. Mr Blonde shares his thoughts on current financial conditions, the effect of a strong U.S Dollar on markets, the path forward for the Fed &amp; what we would have to see to target 3200 on the S&amp;P 500. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macroFollow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a> Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Referenced In The Show: Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/--(00:00) Introduction(00:32) Financial Conditions(02:11) How Financial Conditions Effect Equities(04:10) The U.S Dollar(05:34) Real Yields(08:40) The Path Forward For The Fed(15:26) Market Outlook(19:38) The Path Towards 3200 On The S&amp;P 500--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Targeting 3200 On The S&P500 | Mr. Blonde

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Putin vs Europe - The Long War". In June, Putin gave a speech on the global economy that began circulating social media over the weekend. In that speech Putin reiterated the point that ''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. With all of the problems Europe has faced this year, particularly surrounding energy prices before they head in to winter, Alfonso breaks down Putin's strategy as he aims to bring Europe to its knees.--Follow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a>Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Referenced In The Show: Putin vs Europe - The Long War: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details</a> Putin's Speech On The Economy: <a href="https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382">https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382</a>--Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction(00:28) Putin's Speech On The Economy(06:45) Europe's Business Model Is Reversing--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Putin vs Europe: The Long War | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Moment of Truth for Markets". Alf breaks down what is being priced in European &amp; U.S bond markets after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and an upside inflation report out of Europe. After a clear market sell-off through the beginning of 2022, markets in recent months have rallied from the lows. Alf argues that now is the "moment of truth". Should we expect further downside throughout 2022 and into 2023, or not? To find out, you'll have to tune in! Read The Moment of Truth for Markets: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-moment-of-truth-for-markets#details--Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction(01:24) The European Bond Market(07:33) U.S Markets(09:54) Powell Will Be Happy With Markets Post Jackson Hole(13:30) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello: The Moment of Truth For Markets, Is The "Party Over?"

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC. With global inflation rates at multi decade highs, Jim joins the show to discuss the “new era of inflation” we are entering. How will rising energy prices, secular de-globalization and a new work from home dynamic affect inflation in the future? Is the bond market incorrectly pricing lower inflation? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in! --Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a> Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>–Referenced In The Show: Neel Kashkari Says the Quiet Part Out Loud on Markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-29/neel-kashkari-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud-on-markets  Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details  War and Industrial Policy: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5amR-YP34-V&amp;t=-1e4y7st99l5d0a0be21hgr5ht --Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:21) Neel Kashkari's Comments On Markets(05:14) The Number One Question For Financial Markets Right Now(09:31) A New Regime For Inflation?(13:51) Zoltan Pozsar: War and Industrial Policy(21:23) Asset's To Own In This Environment?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Are You Ready For The New Economy? | Jim Bianco

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fed Pivot My A*S”. We just heard Jerome Powell deliver a very decisive speech in Jackson Hole where he stressed that the Fed won’t be making another mistake: after underestimating inflation in 2021 and delaying the tightening cycle, they will not prematurely stop now.Alfonso breaks down how to interpret Jerome’s remarks, what the economic data is showing and where to look for short-term market opportunities.-- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Read Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details--Timestamps(00:00) Intro(01:47) Housing Activity is Slowing Down Rapidly(04:26) Quantitative Tightening Matters(07:19) Monetary Conditions Will Continue to Tighten(10:09) Market Opportunities--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Jackson Hole Speech Was Crystal Clear | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Mark Dow author of behavioural macro, a former policy economist, prior hedge fund manager and self prescribed fiat enthusiast. Mark walks through the process of QE &amp; QT and explains how most overestimate the effect they have on liquidity. Does QE actually have any effect on a banks appetite for risk? Alfonso &amp; Mark then discuss if the Fed will remain tighter than most think &amp; what level of inflation will cause the Fed to reverse course. Could the bottom be in? To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/mark_dowFollow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a> Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening(08:13) Does QE Actually Effect Banks Appetite For Risk?(17:45) What Level Of Inflation Does The Fed Wan't To See?(22:11) The Fed Will Remain Tighter Than Most Think--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bottom Is Likely In | Mark Dow

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction". Many investors have a macro thesis, but how can you translate that into an actionable portfolio? Alfonso breaks down how he approaches portfolio construction by walking through his macro compass model and how these 4 quadrants can influence asset allocation for different periods of the business cycle.-- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Read On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-portfolio-construction#details --Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (02:21) The Macro Compass Model(06:03) CAD/JPY(09:06) Structuring A Portfolio With Limited Correlations(12:33) Final Thoughts-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction | Alfonso Peccatiello

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fading The Soft Landing Narrative". As CPI printed at 8.5%, market participants felt relief as many believe these are the early signs of inflation beginning to subside. On the back of a better than expected inflation report, markets began rallying as the market prices in a soft landing. Alfonso walks through exactly why markets rallied on the better than expected CPI report and if this is really just a bear market rally trap. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Fading The Soft Landing Narrative: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fading-soft-landing#details-- Timestamps:(00:00) Fading The Soft Landing(01:52) The Labour Market(04:57) The CPI Report(12:39) Final Thoughts-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Here Is Why You Won't See a Soft Landing

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Crazy Market Rally Explained". After a sharp decline in markets throughout 2022, many investors were caught off guard by the recent rally in equites. Is the bear market over? Should we expect a rally from here? "Hold your horses" says Alfonso.--Follow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a>Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a> Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Referenced In The Show: The Crazy Market Rally Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/crazy-market-rally#details--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) The Fed's Neutral Rate(04:21) Inflation Is Priced To Slow Down Aggressively(05:55 )Real Rates Are Driving Markets(10:01) Slaying The Inflation Dragon--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bear Market Rally or Turning Point? | Alfonso Peccatiello

Rising star in the macro world, Srivatsan Prakash, joins Alfonso Peccatiello, to argue that the risk of a recession is elevated. Prakash looks at indicators such as the copper-to-gold ratio and the inversion of the yield curve to make the case that a prolonged economic slowdown might be in the cards.Alf and Sri discuss China, Canadian housing, why bonds might be an attractive way for investors to hedge for this recession risk. Sri is the host of the Market Champions podcast and an intern at Simplify Asset Management.Follow Srivatsan Prakash on Twitter https://twitter.com/SrivatsPrakashFollow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a>Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a> Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--DASAttend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: <a href="http://digitalassetsummit.co/">http://digitalassetsummit.co/</a> - Use code NYC250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:07) Are We Headed For A Recession?(08:49) Yield Curve Inversion Is Harbinger Of Recession(12:50) Copper-To-Gold Ratio(17:28) What's Going On In China?(23:53) Canadian Real Estate Market--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

5 Reasons Why Recession Is In The Cards | Srivatsan Prakash

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Imran Lakha for a discussion on Europe, the ECB and a deep dive into the options market.  With Nord Stream pipeline disruptions all throughout the week, Imran discusses the various mounting headwinds facing the European economy in 2022 from risk of recession, energy venerability and soaring inflation making the statement that "the ECB is cornered".  Imran then goes on to discuss the options market from a variety of asset classes and explains what the market is pricing, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!-- Follow Imran: https://twitter.com/options_insightFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:26) Europe, Russia &amp; The Nord Stream Pipeline(02:56) "The ECB Is Cornered"(08:32) Market Pricing(12:17) Structuring An Options Position(23:29) Whats Happening In U.S Markets?(25:08) Will The Fed Get A Soft Landing?-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The ECB Is Cornered | Imran Lakha

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jeff Snider and Steve Van Metre of Atlas Financial. Jeff, Steve &amp; Alfonso walk through some of the biggest misconceptions in our current monetary system. We discuss some of the emerging signs of a collateral shortage in the banking system, the current labor market, bank lending data and the inversion of the eurodollar curve. Just what signals is the bond market sending to the market, to find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreStevenFollow Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:27) What Is Atlas Financial?(04:18) Is The Labor Market Strong?(09:57) The Eurodollar Curve Inversion(14:16) Bank Lending Is Collapsing(19:46) Signs Of A Collateral Shortage(28:05) Bank Reserves Are NOT Money-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bond Market Signals A Huge Warning | Jeff Snider & Steve Van Metre

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Kris Sidial Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020.  With a significant equity drawdown throughout H1 2022, many investors expected a spike in volatility. However, the VIX remains suppressed at low levels suggesting a lack of fear in markets.  Kris joins the show to break down some of the complexities of market volatility and describes why we have not yet seen investors flee for the exit. Could a huge VIX spike be on the horizon? To hear Kris's thoughts, you'll just have to tune in!-- Follow Kris: https://twitter.com/KsidiiiFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show:  How structured products have suppressed equity index volatility: https://twitter.com/Ksidiii/status/1544458838149062658-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:38) Running A Volatility Arbitrage Hedge Fund(02:40) Why Is The VIX So Suppressed?(10:19) Commodities Were The Perfect Hedge For 2022 H1, Will they Be For H2?(14:24) The Effect Of Structured Products On Volatility(21:43) How A Market Sell-Off Could Trigger A Huge VIX Spike-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Here Is Why The VIX Is Likely To Explode Higher Soon | Kris Sidial

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Kao, retired hedge fund manager and private investor, for a discussion on the many obstacles facing the Fed. Kao says "the genie is out the bottle" for inflation. As the Fed attempts to engineer a soft landing, will it be able to do so without causing a credit crisis? Historically, the Fed's track record of engineering a soft landing has been "pretty bad,” according to Kao. How will this cocktail of high inflation, recessionary pressures, elevated commodity prices, a strong dollar and increasing credit risk manifest itself? To find out, you'll have to tune in.-- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show:  Fed Chair Powell Opening Statement to Banking Committee: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5020856/fed-chair-powell-opening-statement-banking-committee  Powell says the Fed is 'not trying to provoke' a recession, but it is 'certainly a possibility.': https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/business/powell-fed-inflation-recession.html Inflation-"Ride of the Volkyries" Thoughts: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1528416947007680512  Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ&amp;t=2852s Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All TIme | Michael Kao: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4a1Bqm4X5MeqXNAiLiirWn?si=27104db4abad40f3  Commodity price inflation butterfly: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1368978017033195528-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:49) "The Genie Is Out The Bottle" For The Fed(05:51) Whats Going On In The Bond Market?(15:44) Turmoil In The Housing Market(28:10) Final Thoughts-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao: Engineering A Soft Landing, Avoiding A Credit Crisis

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research. 2021 and 2022 saw commodity prices soar due to supply constraints — Warren walks through the supply and demand outlook throughout the back half of 2022. As China reopens, conflict in Ukraine continues, and commodity prices remain elevated, will a recession lead to a decline in commodity prices, or is the inflationary impulse and supply mismatch too great to cause demand destruction? To find out, you'll have to tune in!-- Follow : https://twitter.com/WarrenPiesFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show:  Oil slips on China lockdowns, but bullish trends intact: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-hovers-near-13-week-high-robust-us-demand-china-optimism-2022-06-09/?taid=62a1b0ba7385bc0001a57c94-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Commodity Bull Market(03:02) The Oil Market(08:26) Backwardation Of The Oil Curve(11:59) Will Demand Destruction Reduce Oil Prices?(19:27) Supply Constrains In The Oil Market(22:49) Industrial &amp; Agricultural Commodities(25:23) Government Reaction To Rising Energy Prices-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Pies: Will Oil Prices Go Higher? 

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the US dollar. Known for his popular dollar milkshake theory, Brent says the U.S dollar wrecking ball is wounding the global economy. Recession looms as markets continue their sell-off, financial conditions tighten, and emerging markets scramble to pay off dollar-denominated debt — capital is just starting to get sucked down the dollar black hole. Just how badly will this end for global balance sheets? You’ll have to tune in to find out.-- Follow : https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination: U.S Dollar https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/e2?m=USD&amp;f=pdf ECB Is Discussing Crisis Strategy as Well as Pandemic Program Reinvestments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/ecb-is-discussing-crisis-strategy-as-well-as-pepp-reinvestments#xj4y7vzkg--Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction(00:41) The Dollar Milkshake(05:57) U.S Dollar Denominated Debt(14:00) Rising Dollar, Gold, Equities &amp; Rates(18:50) The Dollar Black Hole--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Brent Johnson: The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Pettis for a discussion on China. Finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management and senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Michael Pettis worked on Wall Street from 1987 at notable firms such as JPMorgan, First Boston and Bear Stearns. With Pettis' expertise, he provides a deep dive on the Chinese economic growth model and how factors such as debt, demographics and deleveraging will effect China's growth model looking forward. With Beijing acknowledging that the past 30 years of economic growth will not work for China going forward, what does this entail for the country’s strategy over the next decade and beyond? To find out, you'll have to tune in!-- Follow : https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/-- Referenced In The Show: China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion - IIF: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-U-S-lead-rise-in-global-debt-to-record-high-305-trillion-IIF--40468591/ The one-child policy in China: https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/chinas-one-child-policy/ China: To Invest or Not To Invest?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/china-to-invest-or-not-to-invest?s=r#details China posts record trade surplus in Dec and 2021 on robust exports: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-exports-imports-grow-more-slowly-december-2022-01-14/-- Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (00:46) The Chinese Model For Growth(06:41) Demographics &amp; Consumption In China(12:02) China's Strategy In The Next Decade &amp; Beyond(21:06) The Great Deleveraging--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Pettis: The Chinese Growth Miracle Is Over

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Travis Kimmel for a wide ranging discussion from geopolitics to supply chains, the housing market and much more. If there is one thing to take away from this conversation, it would be that contrary to popular belief, cash is NOT trash. Travis walks listeners through the upcoming recessionary downturn we should expect to see throughout the end of 2022. Drawing on his experience as an entrepreneur and technologist, he provides an insight to some of the struggles companies may face over the coming months. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Travis: https://twitter.com/coloradotravisFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:36) Geopolitical Situation In Ukraine(03:47) Supply Chain Effects On Inflation(09:47) Increasing Borrowing Costs(14:00) The Housing Market(17:22) Cash Is NOT Trash(28:05) Moving Away From A Credit Based System?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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