In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their "Everything Code" framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:50 Big Macro Picture
05:52 Demographics & Debt
10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns
13:43 What is the Endgame?
14:33 Ads (Aptos)
17:49 The Everything Code
20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills
25:12 Financial Conditions
29:40 What’s Driving Gold?
31:42 2017 on Steroids
36:00 Ads (Aptos)
36:52 Nothing Stops This Train
38:32 Removing Recession Risk
44:27 Immigration
46:42 What Happens Next?
55:04 Resurgence of Religion
58:27 When Banana Zone?
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance