Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing.
Immortalized in "The Big Short," Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s
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(00:00) The Current Setup
(06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally?
(09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks
(13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution
(22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds
(26:24) Outlook on Stocks
(29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses
(31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position?
(32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions?
(34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
(39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent
(42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis
(44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense
(54:01) Private Equity
(01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates?
(01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon
(01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward
(01:12:46) Energy Stocks
(01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died"
(01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom"
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.