ep. 97


Summer Meltdown In Stocks Unlikely, Says Volatility Expert Noel Smith

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)

Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/


Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!

Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).

Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw


Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex

Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_


Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/


(00:00) Introduction

(01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions

(07:09) Forward Volatility

(10:53) New Outlooks

(19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade

(22:00) Navigating High Environments

(27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio

(33:15) The Nature Of Money

(37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility

(44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors

(49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed

(54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market

(57:05) Short Squeezes

(1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies

(1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession?


Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Other Podcasts from our Network