Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:27) Tracking Capital Flows
(01:43) Where Is The Money Going?
(19:53) The Dollar And The Euro
(25:30) Blockworks Research
(26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data?
(38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys?
(41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization
(46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar
(57:14) Permissionless
(58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities
(01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.