ep. 171


The Bond Market Is Wrong | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/

Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/


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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.


To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. 


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(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief

(04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong

(07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"

(01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go

(15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case

(28:06) Curve Ad

(29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling?

(36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?

(46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime

(57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"

(01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate

(01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?

(01:14:45) Higher For Longer!


Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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