In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023.
Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more "boring" than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well.
Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023.
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Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir
Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/
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Kevin’s interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:27) The Fed
(05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)?
(13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect
(18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue
(25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate?
(29:25) Curve Ad
(30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over
(47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets
(01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked?
(01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine
(01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.