Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called "soft landing" could be achieved this year. At least that’s what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating.
This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a "transitory goldilocks" that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:19) Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased?
(06:59) Transitory Goldilocks"
(13:53) The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation
(20:20) Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates
(27:17) Permissionless Ad
(28:17) But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly?
(40:13) Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth?
(44:59) Is Liquidity Turning Up?
(53:53) Asset Allocation
(01:02:27) "Tons of Upside In China"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.