ep. 63

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The “Short Everything” Trade | Teddy Vallee

Jack’s next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro.


Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.


A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had “the everything short” (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does.

Filmed on Tuesday, April 26.

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Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022

(04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022

(05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly

(07:58) The Fed's Key Error

(11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth

(16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market

(23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish

(26:14) Bit.com Ad

(26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3

(28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade

(30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields

(38:35) When Will Powell Pivot?

(41:30) Gold

(42:25) Crypto

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