On today's episode of On the Margin, Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss wether the Fed will be able to achieve their soft landing.
Focusing on the housing market, Warren describes how this is the key signal to watch for a hard vs soft landing in the U.S economy. Warren then walks through the Fed's quantitative tightening program and how this could effect markets in 2023. As short term bullish technicals emerge, how should investors position if the long term fundamentals are bearish?
Finally, with an expertise in energy markets, Warren walks through "the energy trade" of the 2022, and how it could perform into 2023. As many headwinds remain for energy supply, what implications will China's economy reopening have for the global energy market? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:49) How Likely Is A Soft Landing?
(08:28) Quantitative Tightening
(16:34) Preparing For A Fed Pause/Pivot
(20:00) Blockworks Research
(20:49) Bullish Technicals vs Bearish Fundamentals
(27:32) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023
(31:09) Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets
(34:18) Warren's Earnings Forecast
(38:29) Permissionless 2023
(39:13) The Effect Of China Reopening
(44:50) How Energy Drove Inflation
(48:50) Cycles Take Time To Play Out
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.