This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!
--
On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b
--
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link
Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf
–
Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.
Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started
MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.
Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/
–
Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:27 NVIDIA Earnings
08:12 Growth Vs Value
11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth
14:02 Yield Curve Steepening
17:40 High Yield Spreads
19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession
23:00 The Health Of The Consumer
29:59 Advertisements
31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet
37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility
38:57 Central Bank Independence
41:18 Permissionless Ad
41:57 A Weaker US Dollar
44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics
53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps
56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?
59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?
01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.