Adventure Gold

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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I’m putting my crystal ball abilities to the test this year.&nbsp;



As we turn the page on 2024, here are five Solana predictions for 2025:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Elon Musk’s X will debut a native Solana token</h2>



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It’s time. When Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-faithfuls-await-elon-musks-blockchain-plans-for-twitter">crypto fans speculated</a> that the dogecoin-loving billionaire would integrate crypto into the social media platform. Those predictions have so far been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/elon-musk-crypto-dogecoin">quashed by Musk</a>, but with the incoming Trump administration expected to loosen US crypto regulations and bring crypto-friendly voices to the table, I think an X token is finally on the way.&nbsp;



“Crypto Twitter” is still a vibrant community, so there would be demand for such a token, and Musk’s other companies are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tesla-keeps-holding-184m-worth-of-digital-assets-on-its-balance-sheet">known to hold crypto</a> on their balance sheets. X Premium users could pay for their subscriptions using the X token, which Musk could cheaply on- and off-ramp with help from his stablecoin <a href="https://cryptoslate.com/elon-musks-spacex-uses-stablecoins-to-hedge-against-foreign-exchange-risks/">buddies</a> over at Bridge. Solana has the high throughput and low transaction fees to make this all feasible.&nbsp;



To sweeten the deal, Solana Blinks could make ecommerce happen natively on X without users leaving the app — a feature from which TikTok recently found <a href="https://www.morningbrew.com/stories/2024/12/03/is-tiktok-an-emerging-e-commerce-behemoth">success</a>. If X wants to be an everything app, why wouldn’t that moniker extend to currency too?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Solana’s stablecoin market cap will quadruple</h2>



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Solana’s onchain volume and demand woke up in a major way in 2024, but stablecoins stayed sleepy. The blockchain currently houses roughly $5 billion in stables, which ranks it fifth among blockchains behind Ethereum, Tron, BSC, and Arbitrum, according to DeFiLlama.&nbsp;



This is partly because Solana transactions often don’t require stablecoin pairs for actions like memecoin trading, but stables can play an important role in other use cases like DePIN or payments. With <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-stablecoin-infra-provider">startups like Perena</a> and Lulo focused on growing the Solana stablecoin pie and issuers like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paypal-pyusd-stablecoin-live-on-solana">PayPal</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sky-deploys-stablecoin-on-solana">Sky launching</a> on the chain, Solana could be primed for major growth in 2024.



I think Solana’s stablecoin market cap will cross $20 billion by the end of the year, which equates to a 4x increase from its current levels. That would still leave Solana far behind Ethereum, which holds some $110 billion in stablecoins at the moment.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Solana ETFs will be approved but will underperform ETH</h2>



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Ok, time for some cold water: I’m not bullish on solana ETFs.&nbsp;



I think solana funds are likely to be approved this year as a Paul Atkins-led SEC takes a less stringent stance on defining cryptoassets as securities, but I don’t think SOL ETFs are likely to find all that much demand.&nbsp;



Crypto ETFs’ raison d&#8217;etre is giving investors regulated access to crypto within things like brokerage accounts. With bitcoin, this makes sense. Its “digital gold” narrative is sticky, it is by far the largest crypto, and curious boomers could be interested in allocating 1% of their portfolios to see where things go. Ether ETFs have done okay partly due to the novelty of the products, but it’s been a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eoy-ether-etf-check-in">little harder to sell</a> investors on them.&nbsp;



Solana is more degen and less boomer than either BTC or ETH. A lot of SOL buyers seem to be more likely to onboard via Phantom or Coinbase than with their retirement accounts. By the time SOL ETFs get approved, BTC/ETH combo, Litecoin, HBAR, and possibly XRP will all also have ETFs, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1869064627591496170">said</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Look, all I’m saying is there’s a reason BlackRock and Fidelity are yet to file for SOL ETFs. ETH ETFs have <a href="https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot?from=moved">seen</a> $35 billion in inflows in their first five months of trading. I expect SOL ETFs will have fewer inflows over their first five months.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. Pump.fun won’t collect the most fees among memecoin platforms</h2>



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One of the most interesting stories to watch in Solanaland this year has been the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-pump-dot-fun-memecoin">unprecedented rise</a> of memecoin launchpad pump.fun. Since launching in early 2024, pump has already crossed $330 million in revenue. Multiple times, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/moonshot-vertical-integration-memecoins">purportedly-better</a> versions of pump.fun have come out, but no one has been able to snatch the crown in the memecoin sector.



But all good things must end, and I think pump.fun will be passed by another app this year. Speculative platforms tend to have a short shelf life in crypto — just ask the investors who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/business/opensea-13-billion-valuation-venture-funding.html">valued</a> OpenSea at $13.3 billion in 2022.&nbsp;



I think memecoins will continue to be a very large contributor to Solana’s onchain volumes this year, but I don’t think the majority of that volume will play out on pump.fun. If I had to guess, I’d say the heir apparent will be something AI-related.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Solana will not experience a major outage</h2>



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Solana has experienced a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-downtime-post-mortem">number of outages</a> in its four-year lifetime. This might be naive of me, but I don’t think it will add another outage to that ledger in 2025.&nbsp;



This is a bold take because Firedancer, a fully unique Solana client, is set to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-firedancer-testnet">take its training wheels off</a> and greatly increase Solana’s throughput this year. This will create a lot of unseen potential risk vectors that could bring the chain down.&nbsp;



But Solana’s frequency of outages has fallen over the past two years, presumably as the network’s developers learned from previous mistakes. The Solana Labs spin-off Anza recently <a href="https://www.anza.xyz/blog/strengthening-solana-the-invalidator-team">created</a> an invalidator team meant to stress test the network. Plus, Jump’s Firedancer client took years to build, and the rollout has taken place over multiple phases.&nbsp;



What’s another outage-less 12 months?



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Lightspeed’s 5 predictions for Solana in 2025

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Happy New Year from the Forward Guidance team! We launched this newsletter in 2024 and are excited to continue delivering our readers macro and crypto insights in 2025.&nbsp;



As we head into Q1, let’s take a look at where markets could be headed next.&nbsp;



After getting <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-reaction-to-fed-rate-cut">snubbed</a> of a Santa rally at the end of December, Wall Street may be due for a bump in January. The so-called “January effect” is not a sure thing, but it has happened.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500 in January 2023 had a 5.8% return for the month. The index gained 2.12% during the first month of 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has also been in the green for the last two Januaries, returning 1.95% in 2024 and 9.68% in 2023.&nbsp;



But 2025 brings a new —&nbsp;well, old —&nbsp;administration to the White House, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/congress-in-final-weeks-of-session">Republican-majority</a> Congress and a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-dovish-hawkish-2024-conduct">slower</a> rate-cutting pace from the Fed. It’s a situation ripe for volatility, both in equities and crypto markets.&nbsp;



In January 2017 (when Trump was inaugurated the first time), the S&amp;P 500 had a 1.21% monthly return and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.49%. Republican wins are generally followed by a boost in stocks (remember what we saw last November?), so keep that in mind.&nbsp;



Coming up: The next US employment report coming out on Jan. 10, which should give us more clarity on where central bankers may send interest rates.&nbsp;



As of yesterday, the odds of the FOMC holding interest rates steady later this month sat at 89%, according to CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">data</a>.&nbsp;



On the crypto front, uncertainty is just as high.&nbsp;



The euphoria from November <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2024-eoy-sleepy-market-action">has eased</a>, and it seems like investors are in a holding pattern waiting to see if Trump comes through on his big <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-lenient-crypto-regulation">industry promises</a>. Leadership <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">changes</a> at the SEC, plus <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-crenshaw-confirmation-vote-cancelled">three new</a> commissioners, could be a major catalyst. Any movement in Congress on a revised <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fit21-crypto-bill-advances-to-senate">FIT21 bill</a> (or a newly introduced bitcoin strategic reserve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">bill</a>) would likely have a similar effect.&nbsp;



But — as I’m telling my friends and family who’ve asked me countless times over the holidays — no one really knows what’s going to happen, with bitcoin or otherwise.&nbsp;



Buckle up, because I’m certain we’re in for an eventful 2025.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



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Could ‘January effect’ lift markets?

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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One word might be enough to sum up crypto investing in 2025, according to Franklin Templeton’s Roger Bayston.



Diversification.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The asset management titan, alongside competitors, launched bitcoin and ether ETFs last January and July, respectively. The SEC earlier this month approved 19b-4s for crypto index funds (from Franklin and Hashdex) that would hold both assets — and potentially other coins in the future.&nbsp;



“It feels like ETF legal staffs will be busy in the first part of the year,” Bayston, the firm’s digital assets lead, told me. “And I think the story about blockchain and its utility — whether it’s bitcoin as a store of value or these composable chains — is what’s going to be extended in 2025.”



We’ve seen some spot crypto ETF filings focused on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">solana</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/xrp-etf-contingent-on-election-and-sec-appeal">XRP</a>. There is optimism a new SEC administration could be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">friendlier</a> to such plans, though there are no regulated futures markets for those assets, which the agency <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">wanted to see</a> for BTC and ETH.



David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s head of ETF product &amp; capital markets, said his division chats with Roger’s digital assets team to figure out which other assets are exciting (and why). Such convos help guide the product path. 



Franklin Templeton’s research team continues to evaluate crypto assets like the firm has done for public equity markets and credit markets for decades.



“We have opinions for sure,” Bayston said.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While the ETFs are essentially “taking crypto and moving it back to TradFi,” Bayston said, he noted part of boosting adoption is going where clients are comfortable holding it.&nbsp;



Outside of those vehicles though, Franklin Templeton offers an OnChain US Government Money Fund (FOBXX). It had ~$430 million in assets as of Nov. 30. That segment appears <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenization-depends-on-use-cases-benefits">ripe for growth</a>.&nbsp;



“Tokenized money funds can be both a substitute and also a complementary resource to stablecoin users,” Bayston said.&nbsp;



He noted the massive use case for stablecoins as collateral in derivative transactions, for example. FOBXX offers a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-with-yield-franklin-templeton">yield-bearing alternative</a>.



Franklin Templeton launched the tokenized fund in 2021. It enabled peer-to-peer transfers of its shares in April and made FOBXX available on Coinbase’s layer-2 blockchain in October.&nbsp;



The focus for 2025? 



“BENJI has been a US product only,” Bayston told me. “But what you’re going to see right away as we get into the new year…is an expression of BENJI in a global context.”



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Franklin Templeton eyes more ETFs, tokenized fund in 2025

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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As we step into 2025, the rise of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-powerful-defi-potential">Bitcoin DeFi</a>, the acceleration of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/squid-cross-chain-liquidity-protocol">cross-chain</a> interoperability, stablecoin expansion, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-welcomes-ai-overlords">integration</a> of AI and crypto, and the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-potential-shift-enforcement-actions">maturation</a> of regulatory frameworks are all driving anticipation for a bullish year.



The consensus is that technological advances are now poised to deliver real-world utility to the masses, paving the way for broader adoption and innovation.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin’s resurgence in DeFi</h2>



Bitcoin’s role in DeFi is expanding, challenging Ethereum’s dominance, predicts Alisia Painter, COO of Botanix Labs.



“By 2025, we’ll see more Bitcoiners diving into DeFi…Bitcoin DeFi reached $7.5b in TVL by December 2024, highlighting the growing competition and users’ strong desire to bring DeFi back to Bitcoin or leverage their HODL’d bitcoin for staking, re-staking, and other DeFi activities on Bitcoin.” Naturally, she hopes <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/chainlink-integration-bitcoin-l2-spiderchain">Spiderchain</a>, an EVM sidechain built on Bitcoin, stands to benefit from this trend.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cross-chain interoperability</h2>



The fragmentation of blockchain ecosystems is gradually being resolved through enhanced interoperability frameworks. Jon Kol, co-founder and CEO of Hyperlane, <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/expansion/9861c7a8-4979-11ef-b690-b3dbcd2508c2">predicts that</a> “L2 fragmentation will soon be a thing of the past.”



“Permissionless interoperability bridges will seamlessly connect ecosystems, rendering the old debate obsolete,” Kol said. As these solutions mature, they’re unlocking new opportunities for cross-chain innovation, doing away with the concept of bridging and leading to better, safer user experiences.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stablecoins as the killer app</h2>



Stablecoins are cementing their position as crypto’s most practical use case, with market capitalization projected to surge beyond $3 trillion over the next five years.



Kevin Lehtiniitty, CEO of Borderless, sees this as the dawn <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-new-age-in-2025">of a new era</a>: “2025 will mark the beginning of the payments industry transitioning to fast, cheap and internet-native money through stablecoins.” Their utility in global capital flows, commerce and financial inclusion is driving this growth, making them indispensable for both businesses and consumers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The crypto/AI convergence</h2>



The integration of AI and crypto rails is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-crypto-innovation">gaining traction</a> and spawning multidisciplinary consequences, according to Clara Tsao of the Filecoin Foundation.



“Founders and developers working at this junction now are early, but we can expect to see the overlaps between <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/artificial-intelligence">AI</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/depin">DePIN</a> expanding rapidly in 2025,” Tsao notes.



This convergence addresses persistent challenges in scaling and trust, unlocking new efficiencies in computation and data reliability through blockchain-enabled verifiability.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption</h2>



The incoming US administration and global regulatory initiatives — like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/micar-foreign-stablecoins-advantage-in-europe">MiCA</a> in Europe — are creating a favorable environment for crypto adoption. Eran Barak, CEO of Midnight, posits this “will redefine the regulatory landscape, offering the clarity needed for businesses to innovate.” Change in this area is also expected to further fuel institutional interest, particularly in tokenized real-world assets, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/parafi-2030-predictions-rwas">grew over</a> 60% in 2024 to $13.5 billion.



In sum, as Nick Forster of Derive puts it, “the breakthroughs and advancements of 2025 could very well determine the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry for decades to come.”



Together, technology, regulation and utility are shaping crypto’s evolution from speculative fervor to mainstream financial infrastructure.



Here’s to a profitable, educational and fun 2025!



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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2025: Crypto bridges the gap between hype and utility

David Canellis

A battle has brewed behind the scenes of tech over the past few years. For power. As in, electricity.



Energy demand from tech giants has skyrocketed due to the AI arms race, to the point that companies are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-ai-data-centers-power-grids/">reportedly</a> facing years-long waits to access local grids.



With the biggest players set to continue their stranglehold on the market, energy is now fertile ground for disruption — perhaps even via DePIN.



That’s what Framework Ventures is betting on. Co-founder Michael Anderson recently told Empire’s Katherine Ross that energy has been a huge focus for the firm over the past six months.



Anderson reasoned that most major narratives in crypto right now are aligned with general consensus — the two most obvious being memecoins and ETFs.



Energy is, on the other hand, fairly non-consensus, and should pair perfectly with DePIN — which has now proven that it can work, according to Anderson.



“But where it hasn&#8217;t lived up to the expectations is on the demand side. You know, [DePIN] is basically building a supply and demand network, where you source supply and then there&#8217;s demand for whatever resource the network provides. And historically, it seems that the supply side has been accomplished, but the demand side has been lacking,” he said.



Peer-to-peer energy startups have already had boom and bust cycles in crypto. Although they generally weren’t positioned under the DePIN umbrella.&nbsp;



Powerledger would be the largest — allowing solar panel owners to sell energy they generate back to the grid. POWR hit an all-time high market cap of about $680 million in 2018 but still trades 80% below that mark.



So much has changed for energy markets since then, and it could be that Powerledger and others like it were simply too early.&nbsp;



Framework has recently backed crypto startups in the energy space including <a href="https://glow.org/blog/what-is-glow">Glow</a> — which aims to greenify energy grids by rewarding solar farm builders with USDC and GLW on Ethereum — and <a href="https://www.daylight.world/">Daylight</a>, a project backed by IoTeX which is similarly working on decentralizing green energy via crypto rewards.



“Energy is the most liquid, fragmented and highly demanded ecosystem that could be registered over a blockchain, and is purpose-built for DePIN,” Anderson said.&nbsp;



“DePIN kind of becomes energy — it&#8217;s sort of like how DeFi becomes financial services. I think that we&#8217;re gonna see that transition become more pronounced next year.”



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Why Framework Venture is focused on energy DePINs

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Earlier this year, Solana’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-network-congestion-transaction-volume">network congestion</a> created a lot of concern over traders’ ability to land transactions onchain.&nbsp;



Today, traders have a much easier time landing trades, but the concern has refocused on the prices they get while doing so.&nbsp;



Widespread <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sandwich-attack-mev-ethereum">sandwich attacks</a>, whereby sophisticated traders exploit price spreads at the expense of unsophisticated traders, have proven to be a long-running and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sandwich-attacks">tricky-to-solve</a> issue. The Solana swap app and market infrastructure firm DFlow put an interesting new solution on the table when it proposed conditional liquidity, which tasks new market intermediaries with separating toxic from non-toxic order flow.



When a DEX trader tries to swap one cryptocurrency for another, they are quoted a price and allowed to set slippage, which is the percentage that the quoted price can change after the order is submitted. Solana sandwich attackers exploit slippage by front-running transactions to artificially raise the price a few basis points before selling the asset right after at a profit — leaving the user with a worse price. In the aggregate, sandwich attackers can make <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/researcher-encourages-solana-public-mempool">millions per day</a>.&nbsp;



DFlow proposes adding a new class of market participants called segmenters to divide toxic from non-toxic order flow and limit sandwich attacking.&nbsp;



Segmenters, which will initially be chosen by DFlow, sit between users who submit the transactions and the DEXs that receive them, and basically sort good from bad transactions. When DEXs receive these labeled transactions, they can then charge higher fees to sandwichers and lower fees to everyone else.&nbsp;



Conditional liquidity “doesn’t completely solve sandwiching” but can reduce it by charging different rates, DFlow founder Nitesh Nath said. “The magnitude of sandwich reduction is proportional to the difference in the higher rate for toxic flow and the lower rate for non-toxic flow.”&nbsp;



DFlow already <a href="https://x.com/DFlowProtocol/status/1870126515876204892">launched</a> a segmenter called DFlow Aggregator and a conditional liquidity DEX called Clearpool.



Segmenters are meant to create a marketplace for order flow, where the better the prices segmenters achieve for users, the more order flow DEXs and wallets send them. Segmenters make money by collecting some of the price improvement they provide.&nbsp;



“Conditional liquidity aligns the interests of retail traders, DEXs and the network — a win-win-win for all parties involved. We expect conditional liquidity to be one of the big breakout trends of 2025,” JR Reed, partner at DFlow investor Multicoin Capital, said.



Chris Chung, CEO of the Solana swap app Titan, said he believes conditional liquidity could give honest traders better prices, but it could be hard to get DEXs to start accepting the new market structure. DEXs would only start altering their fees if there was sufficient demand for conditional liquidity from the venues where traders are placing orders, but those venues will also want to see DEXs integrate the feature first.&nbsp;



“It becomes a chicken and [egg] problem,” Chung said in a text, adding that the demand question may be partly why DFlow launched its own segmenter and DEX.



Nath told me a “handful” of large wallets and apps have inquired about integrating conditional liquidity, though he declined to say which ones.&nbsp;



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

This Solana swap app is trying to make sandwich attacks more costly

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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We’ve heard the “increased adoption” answer plenty when asking industry players about 2025 crypto market <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2025-crypto-industry-predictions">expectations</a>.&nbsp;



Beyond retail, an array of big players particularly want in on BTC, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-appoints-crypto-council-head">forecasted</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-potential-shift-enforcement-actions">regulatory</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-york-state-crypto-regulations">clarity</a> will help fuel that shift, many believe.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Though bitcoin adoption looks different for various investors, BlackRock’s guidance earlier this month gives us a sense of the buying wave that is possible.&nbsp;&nbsp;



During a busy month in which Donald Trump nominated a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">new SEC chair</a> and the Fed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-reaction-to-fed-rate-cut">again cut rates</a>, some might have missed the asset management giant’s December “investment perspectives” edition.



A couple weeks back, BlackRock execs <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-zz/literature/whitepaper/bii-investment-perspectives-december-2024.pdf">wrote</a> that the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks (in a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds) each, on average, account for roughly the same share of overall portfolio risk as a 1-2% BTC allocation.



“We think that’s a reasonable range for a bitcoin exposure,” they added.



Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was among those who saw the guidance, reacting as follows:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Slowly and then all at once&#8230; <a href="https://twitter.com/BlackRock?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BlackRock</a> recommending up to a 2% Bitcoin allocation is massive. The world&#39;s largest asset manager now sees <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> alongside tech giants like Apple and Tesla. Institutions are here.&mdash; Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) <a href="https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1867256095229522375?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in an X space a week or so later that the news went unnoticed by many.



It was sort of funny, Hougan added — “not just that people missed BlackRock saying you should add bitcoin to a portfolio, but all of a sudden we doubled the allocation.”



Hogan is alluding to the not-uncommon 1% allocation to bitcoin for those who have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/wealth-managers-feel-pressure-bitcoin-etfs">jumped</a> into the space. A March <a href="https://franklintempletonprod.widen.net/s/rzwcnv2drr/dacfp-franklin-templeton-digital-assets-advisor-pulse-survey-final">survey</a> found that of the financial advisers allocating to the space, 15% recommended to clients a 1% allocation. Of those saying they planned to allocate, 23% expected to start with a position of that size.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Many investors Bitwise speaks with opt for a 5% allocation, Hougan added — a level he noted would often get you laughed at a year ago.&nbsp;



“[It’s] not just 2% for a few people at a wealth manager; [it’s] 2% for the base rate for a portfolio across every exposure,” he noted of the BlackRock guidance. “I think it’s really significant, and if you think it’s the end of the story, you’re wrong.”



While US bitcoin ETFs have helped wealth managers <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/advisers-bitcoin-etfs-client-portfolios">wade into crypto</a>, many still haven’t. Then there are the other interested institutions, whether it be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">companies</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve">governments</a> or <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jersey-city-pension-funds-btc-exposure">pension funds</a>. Hougan said as bitcoin volatility goes down in a year or two, perhaps BlackRock will recommend a 5% allocation to BTC.&nbsp;



BlackRock execs indeed note that wider adoption and trading could make BTC’s low correlation with equities more stable — trimming the asset’s contribution to portfolio risk and enabling investors to up their position in it.&nbsp;



“Yet broad adoption could also mean bitcoin loses the structural catalyst for further sizable price rises,” they explain. “The case for a permanent holding may then be less clear-cut and investors may prefer to use it tactically to hedge against specific risks, similar to gold.”



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Sizing up a 2025 adoption wave 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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As we close out a historic year for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, some crypto-related equities are poised to end 2024 well into the green. Here’s a round-up of some of the best performers:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Coinbase&nbsp;</h2>



COIN shares started the year around $156. The stock rallied into the high-$200s in March, coinciding with bitcoin’s run-up to what was then a new all-time high of around $73,000. COIN’s big breakout came in the latter half of the year, though. Shares gained 67% between election night and Nov. 11, a sign investors saw <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">Trump’s win</a> as a major turning point for the industry.&nbsp;



Boutique equity research firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-coin-price-targets">raised</a> its price target for the exchange from $245 to $390 earlier this month. Analysts cited the Trump Administration’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">potential plan</a> to create a strategic <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-strategic-bitcoin-reserve">bitcoin reserve</a> as a positive catalyst for Coinbase’s custody services.&nbsp;



COIN shares were up 58% year to date (to ~$247) at 2 pm ET Tuesday.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">MicroStrategy&nbsp;</h2>



MicroStrategy, an unprofitable business intelligence company, started buying bitcoin back in 2020. Today, the firm has 446,400 BTC (acquired for an average price of $62,428 per coin), and execs say they have no intention of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-btc-purchase-recap">slowing down</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/marathon-buying-btc-momentum">anytime</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-shares-audacious-plan-to-buy-more-bitcoin">soon</a>.&nbsp;



These days, MSTR is essentially a leveraged trade on BTC, and for those who bought shares at the beginning of the year, it’s paid off. The stock has gained more than 60% since Election Day alone.&nbsp;



MSTR shares stood at $290 at 2 pm ET — up 323% in 2024.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Miners Hut 8, Core Scientific&nbsp;</h2>



Bitcoin miner Hut 8 made its public market debut in 2018 at around $17 a share. The stock hit a record high of almost $80 in 2021, a rally analysts attribute to bitcoin’s run and Hut 8’s mining <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hut-8-mining-ceo-interview">operation</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-miners-spending-strategies">expansion</a>.&nbsp;



After shares stalled in 2022 and 2023, Hut 8 saw another surge this year, once again thanks to record-high bitcoin prices and new mining technology. Recent price targets from Cantor Fitzgerald and Craig Hallum are in the mid-$30 range.&nbsp;



HUT shares were up 63% year to date at 2 pm ET Tuesday, just north of $20. 



Up even more is the share price for rival miner Core Scientific, which has increased roughly 300% in 2024.



The company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/core-scientific-relisting-shares-tumble">emerged from bankruptcy</a> in January, relisting on the Nasdaq. Core Scientific’s stock surged to above $7 in June right after inking its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/core-scientific-rejects-coreweave-buyout-bid-after-big-hpc-deal">first hosting deal</a> with cloud provider CoreWeave. CORZ’s share price hovered around $14 on Tuesday afternoon.



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2024’s crypto stock winners

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Marc Andreessen sparks the AI agent rally</h2>



Before there was VIRTUALS, LUNA and FART, there was GOAT, the memecoin inspired by creator Andy Ayrey’s experiment which pitted two Claude AI models in an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-goatse-memecoin">endless chatter</a>.&nbsp;



But it was none other than a16z’s Marc Andreessen, who provided the catalyst to send the entire sector into a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-pushing-memecoins-into-next-phase">frenzied rally</a>, when he sent a $50k “research grant” to Ayrey in July.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">For clarity, I sent a personal $50K no-string-attached unconditional research grant to <a href="https://twitter.com/truth_terminal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@truth_terminal</a> and its creator <a href="https://twitter.com/AndyAyrey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AndyAyrey</a> this summer. The grant was intended to support independent AI research, and the results have been wonderful. However, I have nothing to do with the…&mdash; Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 (@pmarca) <a href="https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1846374466101944629?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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With that, “AI agents on blockchains” was cemented as a go-to bullish talking point, gripping the imaginations of Crypto Twitter like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-the-ai-agent-meta">never before</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">12-year-old rugs memecoin</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf8s7JfOrHnjR8aXRa6IsaTKaPgi_ay4_VMxwc9ae-ftjNGgeDC6dWprQqDjD7EwIwkjCw0GclSZ5eq3_7KnxdIa83k4nhQTTHTuLEUaX6lxJF0rOe-2svPdlWjJXmKQTAEz0fOJw?key=EZmiEedqATiiJZS3Vdg_kSiF" alt=""/></figure>



Attention is the currency of memecoins, and in this case, the rugpull was the catalyst.



In this ironic twist of fate, a 12-year-old middle schooler launched the QUANT memecoin on a live stream, dumped his tokens for a $30k profit and jubilantly flipped off the camera.



The virality of the moment proceeded to pump QUANT to an $84 million market cap in the next two hours, leaving our young comrade with at least $4 million in missed profits.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The SEC’s fake bitcoin ETF approval tweet</h2>



It was a publicity stunt straight off a Hollywood script when the SEC’s official Twitter account was hacked on Jan. 10, 2024 and posted a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-confirms-sim-swap-attack">false announcement</a> of the approval of bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin’s price saw a thousand dollar pump before Gensler officially clarified that its account was compromised.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The <a href="https://twitter.com/SECGov?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SECGov</a> twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.&mdash; Gary Gensler (@GaryGensler) <a href="https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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In October, the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/fbi-arrests-alabama-man-january-2024-sec-x-hack-spiked-value-bitcoin">hacker</a> turned out to be a 25-year-old American who deployed a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fbi-arrests-alleged-hacker-behind-fake-sec-bitcoin-etf-x-post">SIM swap</a>” technique using an SEC employee’s personal details.



Shortly after the SEC account hack, the bitcoin ETFs was then actually officially <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">approved</a>, ushering in crypto’s first ever market pump before the Bitcoin halving. Never a dull day in crypto.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ansem vs. BitBoy for Crypto Fight Night</h2>



A number of things had to happen for this fight to take place.



Someone had to propose the ridiculous idea of pitting two men — who had absolutely no business being in the ring — against each other in a boxing match. That idea had to evolve into selecting and inviting two of crypto’s most hateable KOLs, and a lot of money had to be spent to make it happen.



Kudos to whoever executed that BD miracle — even Dana White would’ve been proud.



The fight concluded in a lackluster draw, but Bitboy’s use of a much-needed inhaler post-match will forever hold a place in the venerable hall of fame of crypto memes.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfo0kGXyi9uUPxXLYRbXH6nLwyaRDzbdeeT3M94irsQNzAkIVgxFTpIiaT1E7mMF__CiI-5dpvNXc2EnX_FMMt7odCpDq8BPy0JJvN9bq3v50UslEL09c73dIad-agRwVJ2zUT5?key=EZmiEedqATiiJZS3Vdg_kSiF" alt=""/></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SLERF memecoin creator accidentally burns investor money</h2>



What could possibly go wrong with a memecoin investment which involves sending money to an anonymous stranger’s wallet on the internet?



After developer Slerfsol raised an eye-popping $10 million for the SLERF memecoin, he then <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/slerf-investor-lose-money-crypto">accidentally sends</a> $10 million worth of the token supply meant for investors to a burn address, irreversibly destroying it.



“Guys I fucked up. I burned the LP and the tokens that were set aside for the airdrop. Mint authority is already revoked so I can not mint them. There is nothing I can do to fix this. I am so fucking sorry,” Slerfsol tweeted, before jumping on a Twitter Space to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/slerf-investor-lose-money-crypto">apologise</a> profusely amid tears.&nbsp;



But scarcity is good… right? Like QUANT, the hilarity of the moment ironically sent SLERF to a $450 million market cap.



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5 of crypto’s most hilarious moments in 2024

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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If there’s one thing ParaFi wants you to know, it’s that it’s not like other venture capital firms. ParaFi Technologies, the tech infrastructure arm, helps make it stand out against the rest of the pack.&nbsp;



Outside of the well-known venture capital arm, ParaFi Technologies has validator systems running with over $1 billion in assets staked, operating as an Ethereum validator in addition to Aptos and Solana. 



“In a simple sense, we’re an investment and technology firm,” ParaFi partner Kevin Yedid-Botton told me. “We really view ourselves as a public utility provider to the blockchain ecosystem.”



“From a purely business perspective, our revenue is diversified. We&#8217;re not dependent on a single stream of revenue from a single fund. We have our quant fund, we have our venture fund, we have our token fund, and we have these other auxiliary businesses, the GP business and the technology business,” he further explained.&nbsp;



One big benefit — outside of revenue — that Yedid-Botton found in ParaFi’s approach to their multi-business structure is that there’s open communication between the teams, who all have different skill sets. From engineers to legal, ranging from really crypto native to not-so-crypto native, Yedid-Botton thinks the firm created a “unique combination” to “find alpha in ways other firms can’t.”



While a bull market has its own set of difficulties, bear markets are, well, a beast to survive.&nbsp;



Yedid-Botton said that the firm saw assets under management “compression from prices going down but our quant fund was actually flat to up that year.”



Which he noted was an example of “how, despite certain strategies underperforming, because we have a platform of strategies, we&#8217;re able to mute the volatility and the cycles that the market gives you because we&#8217;re diversified.&nbsp;



“Today, that&#8217;s even more true, because even in 2022 to be intellectually honest, we were in the early stage of setting up what the ParaFi of today looks like. We didn&#8217;t have as big of a business” as they do now.



Despite the bearish vibes we saw just last week, though, it’s pretty clear that the bullish cycle isn’t exhausted just yet.&nbsp;



For ParaFi, this next cycle is going to be focused on growing the existing businesses. With over $1 billion in assets under management, Yedid-Botton says ParaFi plans to do over 5x that in the next few years.&nbsp;



“I don&#8217;t see you know why we couldn&#8217;t be at a five to $10 billion-plus easily. And we have a very unique LP based too, that is mostly institutional, mostly family office … from a technology standpoint, as a firm, I think we&#8217;re going to cement [our] flag and say ParaFi is not just a VC firm.”



See, mom, they’re not just an investment and technology firm, they’re a cool investment and technology firm.



Updated Dec. 31, 2024 at 3:17 pm ET: Emphasized distinction between ParaFi and its technology arm. 



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ParaFi Technologies aims to be a ‘public utility provider’ to blockchain ecosystems

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A curious filing landed on the SEC’s database Friday.&nbsp;



Volatility Shares filed for a Solana futures ETF, which would issue securities that track the price movements of underlying SOL futures contracts trading on a CFTC-registered exchange. There’s a catch though: No such SOL futures contracts exist. ETF analysts nevertheless said the filing bodes well for spot Solana ETFs’ chances of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">being approved</a> sometime in 2025.&nbsp;



“Many believe that with Paul Atkins <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">as SEC chair</a>, a wider range of products will be possible. This filing appears to be a bet on that,” Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a direct message.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/volatility-shares-eth-futures-etf">Volatility Shares</a> is a leveraged ETF specialist based in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The smallish firm has arguably still helped shift the overton window for regulators: Grayscale <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-lawyers-sec-approval-volatility-shares-etf-lawsuit">argued</a> in 2023 that Volatility Shares’ leveraged bitcoin futures ETF was riskier than Grayscale’s proposed spot bitcoin ETF, so Grayscale’s product should be approved.&nbsp;



Now, Volatility Shares is offering another nonconsensus product in a Solana ETF space that is currently built on making bets. Its Solana futures ETF would give some investors exposure to 2x or the inverse of the daily price change of SOL futures. SOL futures contracts don’t currently trade (bitcoin and ether both have futures trading on the CME), but Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said the filing is probably a good sign that SOL futures are “on the way.”&nbsp;



Regulators could be more likely to approve spot ETFs if they see “a healthy market that&#8217;s liquid enough for SOL to trade,” <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sol-strategies-rebrand">Sol Strategies CEO</a> Leah Wald said, noting that bitcoin and ether ETFs were only approved by the SEC after CME futures began trading.



Conventional wisdom used to hold that futures were a needed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">prerequisite</a> for crypto ETFs, but that math seemingly changed with the possibility that a Trump electoral victory would end Gary Gensler’s tenure as SEC chair. At least five firms have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sol-etf-filing">already filed</a> for spot SOL ETFs over the past six months despite the lack of futures.



Still, a futures market likely wouldn’t hurt the spot SOL ETFs’ approval odds.



“Alright, I’ve seen enough…Registering formal prediction,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, wrote on X. “Spot solana ETFs will be approved in 2025.”



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Solana gets a leveraged ETF filing for non-existent futures

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Fund issuers continue to dream up crypto ETFs they hope to launch in 2025.&nbsp;



We recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-and-bitcoin-standard-etf-filing">highlighted</a> Bitwise’s filing for a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF to invest in those with at least 1,000 BTC.&nbsp;



Related, Strive Asset Management <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1592900/000159290024002726/strivebitcoinbondetf485a.htm">filed</a> last Thursday for a Bitcoin Bond ETF that would seek exposure to convertible securities issued <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-btc-purchase-recap">by MicroStrategy</a> and others expected to use a big portion of proceeds to buy BTC.&nbsp;



REX Advisers then shared <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771146/000199937124015836/rex_485apos-122724.htm#:~:text=REX%20Bitcoin%20Corporate%20Treasury%20Convertible%20Bond%20ETF's%20(the%20%E2%80%9CFund%E2%80%9D,bitcoin%20in%20their%20corporate%20treasury.">plans</a> to launch a Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF that (you guessed it) would invest in convertible bonds issued by companies holding the largest crypto asset.



ProShares also plotted three bitcoin-related funds. A so-called S&amp;P 500 Bitcoin ETF would take a long position in S&amp;P 500 stocks and a short US dollar/long bitcoin position. The latter piece is done via bitcoin futures as a way “to currency hedge the US dollar exposure of the S&amp;P 500 stocks position,” a company filing notes.



Two other planned products similarly aim to replicate the performance of bitcoin-denominated investments in Nasdaq 100 stocks and gold.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">ProShares files for S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq-100, &amp; gold ETFs denominated in btc… Basically a long position in underlying stocks or gold &amp; then a short usd/long btc position using btc futures. I’m calling these btc hedged ETFs. Bitcoin is starting to eat tradfi. <a href="https://t.co/6gsThIWvFT">pic.twitter.com/6gsThIWvFT</a>&mdash; Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1872816010908320094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Perhaps more interestingly, Volatility Shares <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1884021/000121390024113152/ea0225648-01_485apos.htm">filed</a> for an ETF that would invest in solana futures contracts “that trade only on an exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.” These do not yet exist.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The company did not immediately return my request for comment.&nbsp;



Volatility Shares, which offers leveraged BTC and ETH futures ETFs, is also the firm that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/volatility-shares-eth-futures-etf">revived the effort</a> to launch ether futures funds in mid-2023. Though it ditched those plans when many others followed suit by re-filing for similar products, some credited the firm as being crucial to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-consider-ether-futures-etfs">achieving approval</a> of those (and ultimately <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-ether-etf-proposals">spot ETH</a>) products.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Several firms — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-spot-solana-etf-filing">VanEck</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/lightspeed/f1b64556-a070-11ef-be46-37ac229013df">21Shares</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/canary-capital-sol-etf-filing">Canary Capital</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">Bitwise</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sol-etf-filing">Grayscale</a> — have active filings for spot solana ETFs.&nbsp;



It remains uncertain whether the SEC will deviate from its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">precedent</a> of requiring a regulated futures market — such as those available for BTC and ETH but not for solana — before approving other spot crypto funds.



One thing’s for sure (as <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1872836779243700683">stated</a> on X by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas): “Damn. ETF issuers don’t sleep (or take the week [between] xmas and new years off).”It’s probably a sign there’s plenty more filings to come in the new year.



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Crypto ETF filers hard at work for the holidays

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



There was no shortage of crypto price <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2025-crypto-industry-predictions">predictions</a> this year, particularly (it seemed) in November and December after the election. Some had been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-levels-to-watch">eyeing</a> the $125,000 level for BTC at the end of 2024, while others did warn of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-market-holiday-pullbacks">pullback</a>.



Where we stood at 2:10 pm ET Monday: BTC at ~$94,300 and ETH at ~$3,400.



Bitcoin has dropped roughly 12% since rising above $108,000 on Dec. 17. Ether was trading higher than the $4,000 mark that day, but has fallen 15% since.



21Shares research strategist Matt Mena attributed this in part to the more hawkish vibes from the Fed heading into 2025. The forecast of two rate cuts next year (instead of three) “dampened market sentiment and is a key factor behind the recent downturn in prices for BTC, ETH and other risk assets,” he argued.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Mena also noted that the six-month high in the 10-year Treasury yield further diminishes the appeal of crypto assets, as investors shift toward safer and more predictable returns.



Then there’re those who are locking in gains realized over the year, Mena said. At the same time, others are employing tax-loss harvesting strategies — selling assets that have declined in value to offset capital gains and reduce taxable <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/irs-new-form-crypto-accountants">income</a>.



He and other analysts have called this a “healthy” correction, typical for bitcoin after a significant run-up. If BTC can stay above $85,000, the 21Shares exec told me he thinks it will sustain the uptrend seen in recent months. Otherwise, we could see accelerated selling and further price declines.&nbsp;



“The next major psychological price level to watch is $110,000,” Mena added. “Once bitcoin breaks through this resistance, we could see a swift surge to $120,000, with the potential to target $150,000 by the summer as momentum builds.”



Sergei Gorev, head of risk at YouHodler, predicts the corrective sentiment in the crypto market to persist into 2025. He cited the historical correlation between BTC and the declining M2 money supply as a key factor.



But Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote in a Friday research note that he expects BTC to ultimately reach 20% of gold’s market capitalization in 2025 (it’s currently slightly more than 10%).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeVUeG6rMBFCWBhadnMnqQbdOziE-js4YT4n3xAyqjRnfEbSLOlUdVl3R0uKJKZoH0eQcUqkme4CmpT3TKIKHlDlB2WBUbGBx3CI4mTq4MaVltYQjMI8kZDTlUC2G-6uNdtD7e5?key=iWDKfoDTfKflPburT4vWpoTj" alt=""/></figure>



Thorn thinks BTC will cross $150,000 in the year’s first half — as well as a “test or best” of $185,000 in Q4.“A combination of institutional, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">corporate</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve">nation state adoption</a> will propel bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” the Galaxy research head wrote. “Throughout its existence, bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&amp;P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025.”



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(Almost) end-of-year price update, outlook

Jason Yanowitz

Dear Blockworks Community,



Since launching in December 2017, our mission has been to build the world’s best source of crypto insights and information for investors and professionals. We’re here because we believe crypto improves the world by broadening access to assets, increasing transparency, and reducing financial friction.



This market moves in extreme cycles, but if you zoom out, you’ll see that every year more and more value moves onchain.



This trend will continue for decades, and as it does, the number of investors, founders, developers, and professionals building in crypto will grow by orders of magnitude. These participants will all need access to information to make investments, build companies, and scale protocols. This dynamic will continue to fuel a massive market for crypto data, research, and high-quality insights.



From day one, we built Blockworks to provide this information. And as the industry has grown, so have we.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Our business is simple</h2>



Our media channels give professionals and investors the essential news and insights they need to make informed decisions. Our&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/events" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">events</a> create the connections that move the industry forward—bringing together executives, founders, investors, and developers to shape the future of crypto. Our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.blockworksresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">data and research</a> provides professional investors with the tools and alpha they need to make smarter investment decisions. And our newly formed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.blockworksresearch.com/advisory" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">advisory business</a> helps protocols build better, stronger businesses.



We make money through ads and sponsorships, event tickets, advisory services, and access to our proprietary research and data platform.



While it might look simple in theory, execution is everything—and execution in both media and software is tough. Social media and AI are reshaping how people consume news, putting pressure on those who can’t adapt. In the past few years, many of our competitors have either folded or been forced to sell due to these pressures. Meanwhile, if you’re building software products without a robust distribution funnel, that means you’re often forced to spend more than you make to acquire customers. In turn, you become reliant on VC dollars. We refer to this internally as the “VC hamster wheel.” We avoid both these pitfalls by owning the distribution layer and by staying profitable.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Default Alive</h2>



Folks at Blockworks are sick of this story, but I’ll tell it again.



Three months into starting Blockworks, Mike and I met with a successful entrepreneur at his office in New York. We wanted his advice. How could we compete with the incumbents (CoinDesk, Cointelegraph), the upstarts (The Block, Decrypt), and the institutions (Bloomberg, WSJ)? At the time, this felt impossible.



He gave us one piece of advice that resonated: In an industry as volatile and as vicious as crypto, sometimes all you need to do is survive.



This became, and continues to be, a foundational principle for Blockworks.



We have run Blockworks differently than many of our competitors. Instead of chasing every last ounce of growth, we have intentionally made decisions that sacrificed all-out growth to stay “default alive.”



The culmination of many of these decisions put Blockworks in our best position yet as we headed into 2024. But we still had to execute.



Thanks to the best team we’ve ever had,&nbsp;2024 was our most successful year yet:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Advertising and Sponsorships: We hit all-time highs for advertising and sponsorships on both an annual and quarterly basis; Q4 2024 was our best quarter ever.</li>



<li>ARR: Our ARR is also at an all-time high, and we now have more than 100 enterprises, funds, and financial institutions who use the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.blockworksresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Blockworks Research</a>&nbsp;platform.</li>



<li>House of Brands: We believe the future of media lies in dedicated niche brands, each serving a unique audience. We now have five strong brands under our umbrella—each with their own podcast, newsletter, telegram community, and soon, in-person activations.</li>



<li>Podcasts: We published 672 podcast episodes, which were listened to more than 15 million times across YouTube, Spotify, Apple, and other podcasting platforms. Our <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcasts">podcast network</a> is the largest in the industry, and I believe now one of the top 3 financial podcast networks in the world.</li>



<li>Newsletters: As the value of a page view decreases, the value of a newsletter subscriber increases. Our <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter">newsletters</a> grew to nearly 200,000 subscribers.</li>



<li>Reporting: Our newsroom published <a href="https://blockworks.co/news">2,230 stories</a> that reached readers in all 195 countries, cementing Blockworks as the go-to resource for crypto news. Following the acquisitions of two other crypto media publications, we are proud that we remain independent.</li>



<li>Events: Hosted two of the leading industry conferences with <a href="https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Permissionless</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">DAS London</a>.</li>



<li>Research:&nbsp;Our research team published 159 research reports and is now seen as the leading analyst team in crypto.</li>



<li>Data: “Improve the data, improve the industry.” We shipped massive improvements to our data platform, and we now cover user metrics, financials, and token data for more than 30 of the industry’s leading protocols and applications.</li>



<li>Advisory:&nbsp;We launched Blockworks Advisory to help protocols sidestep common pitfalls and accelerate their path to success</li>



<li>Acquisitions: Building upon our House of Brands strategy, we acquired and integrated both&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockworks-acquires-the-drop">The Drop</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockworks-acquisition-the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>&nbsp;into the Blockworks family, strengthening our editorial and insights capabilities.</li>
</ol>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Our Competitive Advantage</h2>



Our data platform is fueled by the reach of our media channels; our reporting is fueled by our proprietary data and research.



This media-data flywheel is the synergy that keeps us ahead of our competitors.



No other media outlet has our depth of onchain and financial data, and no other research or data platform has our distribution capabilities.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Looking Ahead to 2025</h2>



In 2025, you will see us:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Become crypto’s defacto data and research platform</li>



<li>Double down on our House of Brands strategy, scaling each property and adding new ones. This means growing podcasts, newsletters, and communities, as well as adding in-person components to each brand</li>



<li>Turn Blockworks into a talent destination for podcasters, writers, reporters, and researchers. This means finding talent early, building brands around them, and designing the incentives to retain them. It also means investing in journalism at a time when others are divesting</li>



<li>Host three of the industry’s best conferences: DAS New York and DAS London for institutions; Permissionless for developers and builders</li>



<li>More tightly integrate our media and events with our research and data</li>



<li>Help more protocols scale via our advisory business</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Little Moments: Day After Day</h2>



As we look back over the past seven years, building Blockworks has been less about the big moments in time—less about the product launches, the huge hires, and the exciting fundraise. It’s been more about putting one foot in front of the other, day after day after day while making sound decisions that optimize for sustainable, long-term oriented growth.



That’s how we survived Covid and made it through both the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets. It’s also how we were ready to thrive in this new bull market. And that’s how we’ll continue to build the best crypto media and information brand and platform in the world.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thank You</h2>



We couldn’t do this without our customers, employees, readers, and listeners. Your support powers our mission every day. As we move into 2025 and beyond, we are more excited than ever about the future of crypto—and our role in it.



Jason and Mike



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

2024 Reflections

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbS8A6ezthyyEW2S-jKhIn51HU9VqCggiJ-pP3zgfzCEKT8aX1nUL9bKSdjZPvnfVVBFUhV0GfLuBUVQa2Hh3mCBnFsoItWkU_ya4eF9J8AtW0L3MkE-fjVgx9ez0i-_57S4C9?key=LCc_ReB50QZAdLzrgPrUVBTN" alt=""/></figure>



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-crypto-innovation">AI agent frenzy</a> was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-ai-bot-goat-memecoin">kickstarted</a> by GOAT. GOAT is a Solana memecoin that spawned <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-goatse-memecoin">from an experiment</a> by creator Andy Ayrey when he pitted two Claude AI models in an endless debate. GOAT still sits today at a comfortable $404 million market cap, but no longer <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-new-favorite-memecoin">dominates</a> the mindshare it once did.



First to copy GOAT’s success was the AI agent <a href="https://app.virtuals.io/virtuals/68">Luna</a> (LUNA). It’s a busty anime girl chatbot that streams 24/7 on social media — need I say more? Chat with her, tip her with her own LUNA token (why does anyone do that?), or be like A16z-backed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/story-protocol-ritual-ai-provenance">Story Protocol</a>: <a href="https://x.com/StoryProtocol/status/1870152680045215759">Hire</a> Luna for social media marketing.



The Luna virtual companion was launched on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-welcomes-ai-overlords">Virtuals Protocol</a>, an “AI Agent launchpad” on Base that is the most recognizable brand name in this meta right now.



Formerly the PathDAO gaming guild, Virtuals took pump.fun’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-pumpdotfun-record-highs">successful formula</a> and applied it to AI agents. Launch an agent token, hit a <a href="https://whitepaper.virtuals.io/developer-documents/agent-creation#id-2.-bonding-curve-graduation-and-liquidity-provision">target market cap</a> on a bonding curve, and pair the agent&#8217;s token in a liquidity pool on Uniswap.&nbsp;



What Virtuals did differently, however — and what has gotten investor-types bullish on its token — was tying its native VIRTUALS token to the cost of launching agents and running inferences, as well as pairing it with agent tokens in a Uniswap liquidity pair (rather than SOL).



Within the Virtuals ecosystem, Luna faces competition for speculative capital from other similarly looking chatbots like <a href="https://app.virtuals.io/virtuals/2059">Airene</a>, or more “utility-based” agents like <a href="https://x.com/aixbt_agent">aixbt</a>, an agent that scrapes troves of social media data to surface trading alpha (aixbt is incidentally bullish on everything).



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24AIXBT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$AIXBT</a> is now a $1 billion market cap project based on mindshare, and it still wouldn&#39;t be overpriced.<a href="https://twitter.com/aixbt_agent?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@aixbt_agent</a> has undeniably become the most influential entity in all crypto right now. From <a href="https://twitter.com/cookiedotfun?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cookiedotfun</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/_kaitoai?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@_kaitoai</a>, the signs are everywhere—this is a movement, not just… <a href="https://t.co/G4qAorXSVb">https://t.co/G4qAorXSVb</a> <a href="https://t.co/rg075ZYPTn">pic.twitter.com/rg075ZYPTn</a>&mdash; Diamond Hands Dig 👾 💎 (@DiamondHandsDig) <a href="https://twitter.com/DiamondHandsDig/status/1873263131428073903?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 29, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Just as agents face competition, so too do the picks-and-shovels of agents. Besides Virtuals, a myriad of AI agent launchpads already exist, such as vvaifu.fun, Creator.Bid, MyShell.ai, <a href="https://x.com/jyu_eth/status/1873462146249752915">Zentients</a> and more.



Then we have the AI agent “frameworks.” These are simply code libraries that make it easy for devs to customize their agents and integrate them into the virtual Wild West.



The leading agent framework is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stanford-lab-ai16z-partnership">ai16z’s “Eliza,”</a> but there’s also Virtual’s <a href="https://game-lite.virtuals.io/">G.A.M.E</a> (Generative Autonomous Multimodal Entities), the Python-based ZerePy, the Solana-focused RIG, and more. And of course, each one of these frameworks has its own token that speculators are furiously aping into.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdNpAQz9ubgupjqpLyvNJY1AvFjOM6MgtRgc8aGj0xFuB5ALIGShG1B1UxDbd98BKURyVjS63ByvZT-NRzuvW4FPCzh0T_4_Vx4jWiXIw49jV1WgMUKDDf_mg4GZKmvIm3-TTL6XQ?key=LCc_ReB50QZAdLzrgPrUVBTN" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/MessariCrypto/status/1872658008863592946">Messari</a></figcaption></figure>



Finally, we have the AI investment DAOs. The idea is simple: Deposit SOL/ETH and receive a DAO token that lets you share in the “hedge fund’s” upside.



Ai16z was the first investment DAO to launch on Solana, now with an AUM of $23.4 million. People apparently really trust the investor acumen of AI agents. Presently, its native AI16Z token is <a href="https://www.daos.fun/HeLp6NuQkmYB4pYWo2zYs22mESHXPQYzXbB8n4V98jwC">valued</a> at an astounding $1.4 billion market cap.



Daos.world and VaderAI are two upcoming AI investment platforms on Base that have gained steam in the past week. At least <a href="https://x.com/NickDGarcia/status/1873389504796483613">six funds</a> have already emerged on both platforms, with about a collective million in capital raised.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Making sense of the AI agent meta

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Our internet is quickly being filled with automated slop.



Blockchains are destined for the same treatment.



It’s actually been happening for years. Take active address counts: In an entirely humanly-operated onchain world, active addresses would reflect the number of real users on any particular network.



That’s obviously not the case, as Blockworks Research and the 0xResearch newsletter <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-evaluating-blockchain-metrics">have already shown</a>.&nbsp;



Bots, spammers, airdrop farmers and other code-controlled entities commonly wield thousands — and even tens of thousands — of addresses. By the raw numbers, those players tend to drown out individual users.



The active addresses metric really only says one thing about a network: how cheap it is to use (which makes spamming a breeze).&nbsp;



Take that logic one step further and questions arise over how much of DEX volumes on chains like Solana and Base are the result of wash trading.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd4WktoyexaZFX4UsOJCMJsHpO0DqLL_lhjyUKE09W7Iu3WgUhC-k0SP-OoCAm-bwgYFuwvs8h7ZpBJVLVHRJEYS1ZXKCtDz0E7-AjSDv4VpS01-tNNeBMpvb4G5-X6E_VSYwMxkQ?key=HMbX2nZD-YkMWlQzbf4VU4IX" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Pump.fun’s cumulative active address count has swelled by ~4.5 million since the start of November</figcaption></figure>



Still, while Web2 struggles with its own transition into an AI-generated wasteland (check the <a href="https://www.404media.co/ai-generated-christmas-music/">mangled</a> robot Christmas tunes that targeted unaware YouTube users this year), crypto is taking a more holistic approach.



Embrace the slop. Make your own and tokenize it. Trade it.



Pump.fun arguably was the first to perfect that roadmap. Virtuals Protocol wants to run it back by allowing users to create their own AI agents complete with their own tokens.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcS2UfMmnXur4hk1Do7dcBT5u_FmYk8LsA5o9dGyeWOgiceOPqyGZAwHs8hD2KpXW4EYpTM2BHYEFCIyshCGDXoo41cdZHgYwMfQtCxKOj44Fy_xZd1gXRZ36w4W7WvJy2CJDLKag?key=HMbX2nZD-YkMWlQzbf4VU4IX" alt=""/></figure>



Almost 300 AI agents are now on Virtual Protocol’s leaderboard. More than 12,600 token pairs have been <a href="https://dune.com/0xludic/virtuals-overview">created</a> overall.



For now, Virtuals is still small relative to Pump.fun. We’ve had almost a full year of the latter, with daily volumes going from under $1 million to as much as $5.6 billion in November.



Virtuals’ AI agent launchpad has only been live since October, and its volume topped out at $24.5 million at the end of November.



For what it’s worth, Virtuals’ cumulative daily active address count has skyrocketed from under 1,000 to 96,000 since the launchpad went live.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe2-Lw0fGdjBbyegRa_pO8M4hMqGheUANvjGciAIrdg15Sdj86GPy1SWMIGOiWUvXXDk3lKYvuuSxeD1AGflx80TOkA2MhwaRvfYamF9PhtuFU8VNC9wItk5ezS94qA5C5Chj0E0Q?key=HMbX2nZD-YkMWlQzbf4VU4IX" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Virtuals’ volume is back on the rise alongside its native token VIRTUAL — up 125% in the past month</figcaption></figure>



Of course, active address counts say very little about adoption from real users. Who knows how many of those new active addresses interacting with Virtuals were carbon-based lifeforms.



Where crypto is headed, I’m not sure it even matters.



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