Arbius

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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The current mood on Crypto Twitter: Speculation is dead and fundamental revenue drivers are back in.



“Speculation is dead” points to the increasing <a href="https://x.com/cryptobeastreal/status/1898666872091894169">consensus</a> that memecoins are a dying meta.&nbsp;



The straw that broke the camel’s back was of course the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/libra-latest-solana-memecoin-episode">controversial LIBRA memecoin</a> launch last month.



LIBRA peeled back the curtain on the explicitly extractive <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/libra-memecoin-sausage-gross">practices</a> that memecoin projects exercise, such as sniping one’s own token quickly on launch.



Are memecoins dying though? Activity certainly isn&#8217;t at its all-time highs but the data suggests they’re far from death. Pump.fun launched 187k new tokens over the last week, while making $8.1 million in revenue.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfrzXJSKOTtufJJ5DHy4IhJwS3Z09wly2aknTfh_2P3z1vHVdWg5_a_-1YEoWDv4_Ho9Hh-o3ysmxUbAwAjY6t4sNdnCeMYs_2MgNH8pY1d455BhJ4Hb_i2QtRT8QJ9Iq-Sl6XG?key=hKnssSAgC3Q2N_Pl0HX9lxG8" alt=""/></figure>



Base memecoin launchpad Clanker even saw an all-time high in memecoin launches (10.8k) yesterday. It’s perhaps an anomaly, but it does cast some doubt on the idea that memecoins are a dying meta.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbe5dAN-nDtUYOxirwxUJlSnt6K1L-26SlCxrnQPvImmzcszb_qdx9PfGSkgxyI_h9oqGHNnJLdjSY8BA4B_iX46FbR_kiMNSvJUz3UrNgLcz09qNHrdgFZ2Pln7jgwVSaPhIU?key=hKnssSAgC3Q2N_Pl0HX9lxG8" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">h/t: <a href="https://x.com/0xSharples/status/1899860339958616481">@0xSharples</a></figcaption></figure>



Besides, why would memecoins die?



Recall that memecoins were thought of as a casino game, what Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi <a href="https://x.com/hosseeb/status/1864715648255074709">likened</a> to a video game “simulacrum of crypto trading.”&nbsp;



It was a high-risk bet with very low guarantees of a return, but so long as blockchains are still permissionlessly accessible and human greed is a variable, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/game-studio-betting-pivot">appetite for gambling</a> will persist.



The case for fundamentals being back in play is perhaps more persuasive.



A great piece from Decentralised.co <a href="https://x.com/Decentralisedco/status/1899791625468903626">argues</a> that revenue-generating apps/protocols will swing back in favor as capital allocators tighten their pursestrings and token attention is continually diluted.



With a glut of tokens on the market and no guarantee of the “rising tide lifts all boats” dynamic of past crypto cycles, investors need to be more selective about what tokens they purchase. So, they look to fundamental drivers.



Many prominent crypto companies are signaling the pivot back to “fundamentals” — to name a few, Jupiter, Hyperliquid, Raydium, Sky, Jito — by announcing token buybacks over the last few months.



Token buybacks are the TradFi-equivalent of “stock buybacks,” what is typically considered a more tax-efficient way than dividends to return value to shareholders. Some of the most successful companies in the 1970s and 1980s engaged in massive stock buyback campaigns, in a time where buybacks were considered extremely unpopular.



The canonical example is Teledyne. From 1972 to 1984, Teledyne’s CEO Henry Singleton bought back approximately 90% of the company’s outstanding shares.



The result: Teledyne’s stock massively outperformed the S&amp;P 500 twelvefold by 1990.



But what worked for TradFi may not for DeFi.



Unlike most traditional businesses, some crypto products enjoy a relatively high ceiling for growth and expansion. Products like Aave or Uniswap, for instance, have had fairly sustainable revenue streams. Reinvesting capital into product expansion and user acquisition may yield greater returns than buybacks.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf1E1H3HJTlTuDCoF_tJD_q8BpilLjofKmqWqBnVOlpUyIZbrhxW8XlsDkMXjSgnjDMCqT7F8ogxEoWSMNQVmOCEj0JplUsc7kJp7oBKYwie90111qmA--de7PG274Kkb9cjMHzow?key=hKnssSAgC3Q2N_Pl0HX9lxG8" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="http://decentralised.co">Decentralised.co</a></figcaption></figure>



In that event, token buybacks don’t justify their costs, given easier routes to grow the business and create tokenholder value.



Not only is it a poor spend of capital, it signals that the business has no other avenues for growth.



Fundamentals may be back in, but don’t assume token buybacks are a one-size-fits-all solution.



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Speculative assets are paving the way for fundamental drivers

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Bitcoin’s had some strong sell-side pressure since the start of the year.&nbsp;



I know, not shocking. But bear with me, yeah?



Glassnode tracked bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, finding that the latest “distribution phase” (aka selling) started back in January.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcbcGRUhwRsmjYFberauXU6W_wwz9mqT_BI0DuxG0spPqJQ3baWwTCAmyFZSbgw4iv0hp08oTxsRCEkIYLIfJ1JKDIxxO6DcI-DbKzPJdc3skZroxCbClok1-f8iBi3aLpEd6DHxw?key=nvxiCPzcE3z16bb68z_Z6G_6" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chart showing bitcoin accumulation trends in the past 2 years</figcaption></figure>



The Accumulation Trend Score, which “measures the relative change in aggregate onchain balances,” is still signaling that there’ll be more sell-side pressure. Unfortunately, the score is also influenced by the moves of larger entities.&nbsp;



Prior to late February, there was a pattern of adding to bitcoin positions in the $95,000 to $98,000 range, but that fell off as liquidity conditions changed (thanks, macro).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdpwmpOmmge6zxvZYwOndoTjJvLvh8aZbPmaLeVCa4v1r3EZqfx6CsncSeWgPb2zvK9LmKP0BNFU5bpZRNualltGocMjSuiXuguBMTCC-B2bU9HZhSTEmuHK6P0g7m91m-DRiXk3Q?key=nvxiCPzcE3z16bb68z_Z6G_6" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A look at the accumulation range and its subsequent dip</figcaption></figure>



Now the accumulation range sits between $78,000 and $92,000, which Glassnode labeled as “weak.”&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdL41EUHnkvbU1ErU90_Vq-gZRw75sEKL2Dq0GGRepULHoI3xhK964E7J6UVewKI4gShBDYIi6ktu841BduIiTMOYWQsHbfSUS7f6Q9DynAKWPGiy4R3kghZd-RwruTyohNM4x0Kg?key=nvxiCPzcE3z16bb68z_Z6G_6" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">See? Glassnote chart of &#8220;Weak Accumulation&#8221; period, from Feb. 23-Mar. 9</figcaption></figure>



So it’s starting to look like we’re not getting as many folks interested in buying the dip right now.&nbsp;



“Using the cost-basis of Short-Term Holders, we can see that market momentum and capital flows have turned negative, signaling a decline in demand strength, and investor uncertainty is affecting sentiment and confidence,” Glassnode wrote.&nbsp;



Reading into this: I’m not all that surprised, especially given the headlines around a potential US recession and some weaker-than-we-wanted economic data.&nbsp;



And I know what you’re thinking: “Investing in bitcoin diversifies your portfolio away from the macro of it all!”&nbsp;



You’re not wrong. But you’re also not entirely right. Glassnode’s note ー that a lot of this is coming from bigger entities ー means that the institutions who are getting exposure to bitcoin will also be more likely to offload it as a risk asset when the environment becomes a bit too risk-on.&nbsp;



We’re just not there yet in the whole “bitcoin’s digital gold” argument. But hey, we’re making strides every single cycle.



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Why the market isn’t buying the bitcoin dip

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Mesh CEO Bam Azizi won’t be going back to the normal way of raising venture capital. And by that I mean, he won’t be waiting on a wire transfer to settle in Mesh’s bank account.&nbsp;



Instead, he prefers to receive it in stablecoins.



Earlier this week, Mesh announced that it raised $82 million in a Series B led by Paradigm. The money was then sent over to Mesh using PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD, using his own firm’s technology.&nbsp;



Pretty fitting if you ask me, given that PayPal Ventures participated in their Series A.



Binance recently announced that Abu Dhabi’s MGX also sent over its investment via stablecoins, though the sum was just a smidge bigger — a cool $2 billion.&nbsp;



“It kind of makes sense,” Azizi told me. Why wait a week or so for a wire transfer when you can immediately settle with stablecoins? Perhaps both Azizi and Binance will be trendsetters here.



Any further raises Azizi does will also be stablecoin-exclusive.&nbsp;



“I’m tired of calling banks and manually confirming,” he griped. “Is it the 1990s? Come on, you can do better.”



Azizi told me the round happened rather quickly — a matter of weeks instead of months. He sent out an update to the investors he was talking to back in January, and then suddenly, he was preparing data to finalize the firm&#8217;s newest round.&nbsp;



(Azizi even admitted that he had even pushed back on some of the initial terms “to buy some time,” and then they were ready to finalize the funding.)



Mesh last raised $22 million in a Series A back in 2023, so it’s not a surprise that their business update — coming on the heels of success around stablecoins — would pick up interest from VCs like Consensys, QuantumLight, Paradigm, etc.&nbsp;



Oh, wait, let me back up a second: Mesh is a crypto payments firm. Azizi’s goal is to simplify payments so that they pass the “Grandma test” — which should be pretty obvious, but basically just means that anyone can make payments with crypto.&nbsp;



The firm’s been working to develop itself as a bridge for roughly five years now, with a special focus on stablecoins starting around two years ago.&nbsp;



Mesh takes an agnostic approach to the space. They don’t have direct interaction with consumers, unlike some of the firms we’ve spoken to in this newsletter, but their technology instead connects the networks and allows the consumer to then make a payment.&nbsp;



“That&#8217;s how we stand out: by building that network versus competing with all these players. They are competing with each other. We [&#8230;] want to be the connection layer, connecting and bridging all the gaps between these two,” he explained.



As Mesh solves for the payments experience, the belief is that folks will start actually using crypto for payments rather than sitting on a portfolio of memecoins.



“Last year, we had $27 trillion in transactions on stablecoins. That&#8217;s more than Visa and Mastercard combined. And if that&#8217;s not enough, plus 7% on top. So if you combine these two numbers, our projection is [that] at some point you will have more crypto holders than credit card holders,” Azizi told me.



Mesh will use the freshly raised $82 million to expand globally, which means not only going to new markets but also hiring in those areas.&nbsp;



After all, “you have to be global from the get-go,” Azizi said.



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How crypto payments firm Mesh raised $82M in a month

In the ever-expanding onchain economy, WalletConnect has solidified itself as the universal connection layer, enabling seamless interactions between users, wallets, apps and blockchains. As new connection methods and technologies emerge, does this threaten WalletConnect’s relevance? The answer is clear: WalletConnect remains indispensable. Rather than being overshadowed, it continues to adapt, ensuring a seamless, secure and decentralized user experience. Much like HTML standards were foundational to the internet, WalletConnect remains the bedrock for onchain interoperability.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Challenges of Fragmentation</h3>



WalletConnect initially provided a much-needed solution for secure wallet-app interactions. However, as the onchain economy matures, numerous connection formats have emerged, offering users various authentication and signing methods. While this innovation signals progress, it also introduces complexity.



Developers and users must now navigate an array of options, including embedded wallets, smart contract wallets, and alternative connection layers. Though each has its advantages, the lack of a unified infrastructure can lead to inefficiencies, security risks, and a poor user experience. Many of these solutions still require a robust, decentralized infrastructure, exactly what WalletConnect provides.



Fragmentation also creates challenges for developers, who must integrate multiple connection standards to ensure compatibility. WalletConnect resolves this by acting as an adaptable bridge, ensuring interoperability regardless of how connection methods evolve.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">WalletConnect: A Universal Connection Layer</h3>



Unlike single-purpose connection standards, WalletConnect functions as a bridge, supporting multiple authentication and interaction methods. This adaptability ensures developers can future-proof their applications, integrating emerging technologies without overhauling existing systems.



Projects like Reown AppKit, RainbowKit, and Privy leverage WalletConnect’s infrastructure to enhance wallet interactions, proving its continued relevance. Apps and exchanges such as Zealy, Nansen, Kraken Exchange, ChainGPT, and over 56,000 others rely on WalletConnect for seamless integration. Wallet providers, including TrustWallet, MetaMask, Binance Wallet, BitGet Wallet, and OKX Wallet, also use WalletConnect technology.



Additionally, users can switch between desktop and mobile effortlessly, making onchain experiences more intuitive. As new formats emerge, WalletConnect evolves to ensure a frictionless connection across the expanding onchain ecosystem.



Smart Sessions removes the need for users to approve every action while maintaining security. Soon, users will be able to &#8220;connect and forget,&#8221; immersing themselves in the onchain experience without friction. By reducing transaction approval fatigue while maintaining security, Smart Sessions further establishes WalletConnect as the foundational connection layer.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Future-Proofing Through Decentralization</h3>



A core differentiator of WalletConnect is its decentralized infrastructure, ensuring resilience and scalability. Unlike proprietary solutions, WalletConnect operates under a governance model that empowers its community and a robust network of node operators, including industry leaders such as Ledger, Kiln, Luga Nodes, Sensei Nodes, Consensys, 1kx, Figment, Everstake, Arc Community, Nansen, Chain Safe, HexTrust, NodeMonster, QuantNode, and CryptoMind. This community-driven model ensures WalletConnect evolves based on real-world needs rather than centralized decisions.



Decentralization also eliminates single points of failure. Many authentication solutions today rely on third-party providers, which can introduce security vulnerabilities. WalletConnect’s decentralized nature removes this dependency, reinforcing trust in its infrastructure.



As governance mechanisms evolve, WalletConnect’s community-led approach ensures adaptability to future technological and regulatory shifts. Through onchain voting, protocol upgrades, and open-source collaboration, the network continues refining its capabilities to serve users and developers alike.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Expanding WalletConnect’s Role</h3>



Looking ahead, WalletConnect is set to deepen its role by integrating with emerging standards and expanding its utility across different onchain sectors. Its infrastructure supports diverse use cases, from DeFi and gaming to enterprise applications.



By remaining community-led and responsive to technological advancements, WalletConnect ensures users always have access to the most efficient, secure, and seamless connection experience. Future developments may include extended support for new blockchain networks and Layer 2 solutions, further strengthening its role as a universal connector.



As the onchain economy grows, WalletConnect remains the adaptable, user-governed infrastructure enabling seamless, decentralized connectivity. Rather than competing with new connection methods, it enhances them, ensuring interoperability across the ecosystem.



The future of onchain interactions is not about one dominant connection method, but rather a cohesive framework uniting them all. By upholding decentralization, user choice, and interoperability, WalletConnect remains the essential foundation for the next generation of onchain experiences.



Stake your claim in the future of decentralized connectivity. Be a part of the next evolution of WalletConnect.



This content is sponsored and does not serve as an endorsement by Blockworks. The veracity of this content has not been verified and should not serve as financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.



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WalletConnect: The Key to the Future of Onchain Connectivity

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Solana-based perpetual futures exchange Zeta Markets has shipped testnet for Bullet, a low-latency “network extension,” the team told Lightspeed exclusively. The platform’s mainnet launch is planned for early Q2 of this year.



The move comes as Solana perps developers face competition from Hyperliquid, a new perps DEX operating as a layer-1. The chain is currently secured by four validator nodes all co-located in Tokyo, which has raised some centralization concerns. However, Hyperliquid has still vaulted past other perps DEXs. It processed roughly 6x as much perps volume as every Solana perps DEX combined last week, <a href="https://defillama.com/perps/chains">according</a> to DeFiLlama.&nbsp;



“Solana has simply lacked a reliable and performant perps DEX,” Zeta Markets co-founder Anmol Singh said in an email. “[Hyperliquid] has shown where the bar is, Bullet pushes this bar further.”



Bullet plans to pull this off with a network extension, which is kind of a Solana version of an Ethereum layer-2. Like a layer-2, Bullet will process transactions with a sequencer before batching and settling the transactions to Solana. Bullet’s zero-knowledge virtual machine lets transactions be verified with fraud proofs.



So, is it really fair not to call this thing a layer-2? Perhaps not. In the past, Bullet co-founder Tristan Frizza <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-network-extension">told me</a> network extensions were mostly a Solana marketing term. I would think Zeta morphing into a form that looks a whole lot like an ETH L2 will ruffle some feathers in Solana land.&nbsp;



Still, Hyperliquid’s launch made it seem apparent that users care about performance and UX above all else. Bullet claims it can achieve 2ms latency, which would be much faster than Hyperliquid’s median of 200ms. Of course, take such claims with a grain of salt for now, given that Bullet is still in testnet and has yet to operate in a real-world environment.&nbsp;



Bullet will roll out lending and spot trading and hopes to become a foundation for DeFi apps. This diversification looks like a growing trend among perps DEXs, which may be realizing that a single perps product does not a thriving business make.  The Solana perps DEX Drift also rolled out lending, and the rest of the sector has alternate business lines as well. Jupiter is popular for its swap aggregator, and Raydium gets a lot of volume from pump.fun graduations (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pumpdotfun-ditching-raydium-rumor">for now</a>).



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Solana DEX ships network extension testnet as competition grows

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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House representatives <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-debates-irs-crypto-exchange-rule">voted yesterday</a> to overturn the IRS’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-vote-defi-broker-rule">“DeFi broker” rule</a>, which was passed in the final days of the Biden administration. 



The resolution — introduced under the Congressional Review Act — passed in a 292-131 vote. 76 Democrats voted in favor of abolishing the rule.&nbsp;



The IRS’s rule required DeFi brokers to file 1099-DA forms, which are the newly approved tax forms that crypto exchanges must use starting in tax year 2025. Given that DeFi companies are not centralized, the requirements were unrealistic, industry advocates have argued.&nbsp;



During yesterday’s floor debate, Missouri Republican Jason Smith said that the crypto firms being targeted with these IRS guidelines are not capable of supplying the kind of data being requested.&nbsp;



&#8220;DeFi exchanges are not the same as centralized crypto exchanges or traditional banks or brokers,” he said, adding that most of these DeFi platforms “do not and cannot” collect certain user information.&nbsp;



The resolution <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-vote-defi-broker-rule">passed in the Senate</a> last week in a 70-27 vote and will now be heading to the president’s desk. Trump’s advisers have recommended he sign the resolution.&nbsp;



The last time both chambers of Congress agreed to nix a federal agency policy was late last session, when a resolution seeking to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 guidance received <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">bipartisan support</a>. Biden eventually <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-fails-to-override-anti-sab121-veto">vetoed</a> the matter, but the SEC quickly <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hester-peirce-reveals-sab-121-rescission">overturned SAB 121</a> after Trump took office.&nbsp;



There’s a new sheriff in town indeed.



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House overturns IRS DeFi broker rule with bipartisan resolution

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF proposal yesterday is just one of several the SEC is weighing. Still, it marks the first filing from a traditional finance giant.&nbsp;



Crypto and ETF investors alike wait to see what type of spot crypto product the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">new-look securities regulator</a> could choose to allow through next.&nbsp;



Bloomberg Intelligence analysts last month put <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/litecoin-etf-approval-odds-2025">the highest odds</a> (90%) on litecoin ETFs seeing the light of day by the end of the year. That was ahead of dogecoin (75%), solana (70%) and XRP products (65%). The lower odds for XRP was due to the SEC’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-advances-ripple-appeal">lawsuit against Ripple</a> (one that, unlike others, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-actions-timeline">hasn’t yet been dropped</a>).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">It&#39;s our view. That until that WHOLE mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome etc etc &#8212; you likely won&#39;t see an ETF. The SEC needs to untangle that mess.&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1889043370233970821?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Franklin Templeton’s Tuesday XRP ETF <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2059438/000113743925000181/s1.htm">filing</a> joins those of Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree and others. The SEC is reviewing them, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nysearca/2025/34-102584.pdf">delaying</a> its decision on Grayscale’s proposal yesterday. Franklin manages roughly $1.5 trillion in assets. Yes, “illion” with a “tr.” When a fund group of that size seeks a product, people take notice.



Remember when BlackRock jumped into the bitcoin ETF race in June 2023? It turned heads, spurred optimism and left some wondering if the firm’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-clout-bitcoin-etf-approval">clout was enough</a> to get US BTC funds past the SEC.&nbsp;



What played the larger role was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-grayscale-spot-bitcoin-etf">Grayscale’s court victory</a> against the regulator. And Franklin Templeton isn’t exactly BlackRock. But you get the point.&nbsp;



Franklin Templeton’s Roger Bayston <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/franklin-templeton-etfs-tokenization-2025">correctly predicted</a> in December that ETF legal staffs would be busy in the first part of 2025. Franklin Templeton last month launched a crypto index fund (so far limited to holding BTC and ETH) and filed for a solana ETF.



BlackRock has not yet entered the altcoin ETF proposal fray. Comments from execs signal the firm is focused on BTC and ETH for now (Rachel Aguirre didn’t exactly give a direct <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-24/blackrock-s-aguirre-on-potential-for-solana-etf-video">answer</a> to Bloomberg on possibly proposing a SOL ETF).&nbsp;



The SEC has another seven or so months before it would have to issue a decision on any of the crypto ETFs it’s so far acknowledged. It’ll be interesting to see who could be the next big firm to add to that proposal pile in the meantime.



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After a TradFi giant joins the XRP ETF fray, who’s next?

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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After a tough several weeks, today is a happier day on Wall Street.&nbsp;



February’s inflation print gave stocks a surprising but welcome boost this morning after prices last month rose less than expected.&nbsp;



The Consumer Price Index showed prices increased 2.8% year over year — still above the Fed’s 2% target but a decline from the 3% annual increase recorded in January. Economists had projected CPI to come in at 2.9% for the 12 months ended February.&nbsp;



Month over month, consumer prices were up 0.2% in February, a decline from January’s 0.5% gain. That was just under projections, which called for a 0.3% rise last month. Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) came in at 3.1% annually last month, the lowest yearly increase in almost four years.&nbsp;



A key sector pushing inflation lower is housing, which historically tends to be one of the more stubborn components of the print. Easing housing costs have significantly contributed to the slowdown in inflation for the past two years.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1400" height="1040" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-98712" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=1400 1400w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=346 346w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=351 351w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=295 295w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/unnamed.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px" /></figure>



Non-housing costs, on the other hand, have eased less consistently. While Core inflation is slowing for now, this sector includes goods likely to be impacted by tariffs. Food and energy costs are also expected to rise, especially given Trump’s new tariff plans for steel and aluminum, which experts <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trumps-tariffs-steel-aluminum-raise-costs-us-energy-firms-experts-say-2025-03-11/">say</a> will increase OCTG costs by 15% annually.



US equities rallied Wednesday morning on the inflation print. The S&amp;P 500 gained as much as 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite surged almost 1.5% early in the session. At 2 pm ET they were trading 0.4% and 0.9% higher, respectively.&nbsp;



Still, fears over an escalating <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-tariffs-trade-war">trade war</a> are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tariffs-impact-equities-volatility">weighing</a> on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-markets-tariff-reaction">markets</a>. By our estimate, the “tariff trade” is the dominant factor contributing to US equity prices right now, even if a positive inflation print provides short-term relief.&nbsp;



So far, the Fed seems comfortable continuing its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/the-fed-committed-to-pausing-rate-cuts-why">interest rate cut pause</a>. Powell last week said the economy is “fine.”&nbsp;



“It doesn’t need us to do anything,” he added.&nbsp;



The latest on the tariff front is more retaliatory efforts against the US. Canada hit the US with a 25% levy on steel while the EU announced additional duties on items including denim, bourbon and poultry.&nbsp;



Companies are faced with two options: Take the loss or charge higher prices. Although if you ask <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6369894923112">Karoline Leavitt</a>, the latter is out of the question. We’ve written before about how US firms increased their inventories at the start of the year. So it could take some time to see higher prices reflected on consumers, should companies go that route at all.&nbsp;



Donald Trump has warned Americans of “short-term pain” but has so far refrained from saying just how high the administration’s pain threshold is. We’ve seen cabinet members attempt what I can only describe as damage control in the past, but today they took a different approach entirely. 



Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick this morning said tariffs are <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/us/business/article/trumps-tariffs-are-worth-a-recession-us-commerce-chief-says-d0p72ff02">“worth it”</a> even if they plunge the US economy into recession territory. I guess their pain threshold is pretty high. Sounds like a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/strike-price-trump-put">Trump put</a>” is out of the question.



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Inflation print calms markets, but tariffs still loom

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Another blockchain gaming studio is shutting down — Battlebound is closing its doors.



The studio was overseeing two games, including the metaverse game Evaverse with an EVA token and an in-development RPG dubbed Anterris. The Evaverse token is down over 99% from its all-time high.



Battlebound previously raised $4.8 million in seed funding back in 2022 from investors including a16z and Dapper Labs. It gained another $3 million by selling NFTs.



The company had the budget for what’s often called an “AA game” or the equivalent of two indie games, but it did not have the means for more ambitious projects (“AAA” games can have budgets of over $100 million each).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-98723" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXcXPNs2x7iRDgtCG_y0ygGeS1Eb0T8e1_vQzljdLVis5Im92diqVG3NEN9sueHxBeUj-CKYng9CNZguhIouEcpXvhV7EaxMSduBx7qu2rjP6GshjhVtSIUqOP13319rwfHGvqEoQ.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Evaverse screenshot</figcaption></figure>



The closure comes “despite the recent traction we&#8217;ve been building for four years with a lean, scrappy team, extending our runway as far as possible while trying to secure our next funding round,” Battlebound wrote in a <a href="https://x.com/battlebound/status/1899505059547041949">post</a>.



“We excelled at doing more with less and staying afloat while developing above our weight. Ultimately, we&#8217;re in the same position as many studios before us, closing our doors due to remarkably challenging market dynamics,” the post continued.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-98724" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXd9zzCeGTg-3rZ4_9IWzXyKohzvwS4Uyx4k3xKbIJk9zB7v7NIDwzJRnRIf_ohEygGJIsxRcb_RaN_Sqwa_3nEf7gM-MWbheJPF2jtmrMExIgYMRgRSOkC2WwNjcVVPUiTwisr3qQ.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Screenshot from Anterris game in development</figcaption></figure>



On LinkedIn, Battlebound CEO and founder Adam Hensel said: “Thousands of players participated in our final playtest, and watching them enjoy years of hard work makes everything worth it.”



Hensel had previously worked at League of Legends publisher Riot Games for four years, most recently as a senior technical artist.



It really sucks to see yet another ambitious game studio unable to raise funds to continue a project. Other blockchain-powered or crypto-optional games like Dauntless and Eternal Dragons have also been cancelled in the past year. Blockchain game tracker BigBlockchainGameList found that 60 crypto games were discontinued in Q1 of 2024, but admits that tracking this can be “imprecise and [a] lagging indicator” for “general ecosystem trends.”



Midnight Society, the studio behind the ambitious (yet ultimately unreleased) NFT-optional shooter Deadrop, announced its shutdown in January after severing ties with its co-founder following public controversy and struggling to raise further funds.



Metaverse games aren’t really my thing, but Anterris looked like it was shaping up to be a cozy fantasy RPG.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="918" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png" alt="" class="wp-image-98726" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=455 455w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=382 382w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdKQK3cRLmwDPlzuWx2QSfE3PpOtjyC2CNfZoeFM_tJdCtDUIz3C3Tm5E9gOMF26HDTGEJOwGv2jrXd8Qsu_P4mX2aZVo6mDBgyWNE2WVabwAf66IJ_HCIXyk4O4dQwOwdbCiVFvA.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Funding round sizes for Web3 gaming over time, from Game7</figcaption></figure>



New blockchain game announcements decreased 36% last year compared to 2023, according to Game7, a research-from-crypto gaming group and research firm. That means things are slowing down, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing for crypto gaming.



I’d take a handful of quality games from dedicated teams over a wide array of shovelware any day of the week.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="876" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png" alt="" class="wp-image-98725" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXfeuC2p0bthx3IXAcdp3z3cFIIs1YO0vZfYu4mSTa_5-Ja4o_5ECCKj6OxfYv87syUuOecY4mOjuRJJ2vR02xdy7Mg_vVPYohNTo7yWBceEF0yeu_AK7S5vVPS3efRDEMxoJ1MnWA.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Chart of Web3 gaming funding from Game7</figcaption></figure>



Game7 also found that only 45% of crypto games are in a playable state, meaning the majority of known blockchain games are still in development.



Aaaaaaand now we wait.



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Blockchain game studio Battlebound shuts down

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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Movement finally <a href="https://www.movementnetwork.xyz/article/movement-network-public-mainnet-beta">launched</a> its mainnet (beta) yesterday.



It’s another Ethereum L2 in the sea of L2s. Who cares?



I can think of at least five reasons why Movement is standing out in the crowded field of layer-2 blockchains.



Number #1: Movement’s founders are Gen-Z-young and have raised a lot of money.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdRLZ-ogFIRDcxgSygMWQLw0IndBbddB1ZCPn0BlYDApM-PjlCWUqn1_A6B2oGmGOXadkGFZC8RfvdRZkEa0W9E4xNpxT9xxRbKI8R_4ZrBA-IhXf8apGfgCPC5Lqs-BO8s8DpXag?key=FS8FTiFXC0GJ_ffi_JwBLjJv" alt=""/></figure>



Number #2: Movement is brazenly open about the fact that its “go-to-market” strategy involves cozying up with DC policymakers to build “<a href="https://x.com/rushimanche/status/1888991485498183796">political and enterprise relationships</a>.”



Movement co-founder Rushi Manche is publicly posting pictures with <a href="https://x.com/rushimanche/status/1887629688949915871">Donald Trump Jr.</a> and crypto czar <a href="https://x.com/rushimanche/status/1880484467451846784/photo/1">David Sacks</a>, and has somehow sold more than two million MOVE to the Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-backed-project-token-swaps">(WLFI) project</a> since January, which was valued at ~$1.9 million at the time.



All without even a live mainnet.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfYTQTw6xGeavKROGTV-W7fY9OmzsomA-5dIQbbPvTR-I7ktvc1sfmcwBKxUyAm3DfPtosG6-MztTZoqYU3xmMT-KD2kb1p4LWlpZhBe3LCe8ARpZdbukJ534vk5kgJQz4dzcg7DQ?key=FS8FTiFXC0GJ_ffi_JwBLjJv" alt=""/></figure>



Number #3: Movement’s tech has some novelty.&nbsp;



It’s the third blockchain project, after Aptos and Sui, to leverage the Move Virtual Machine from Meta’s deceased Diem project as its execution environment. Unlike Aptos and Sui, though, Movement is a L2 chain that settles on Ethereum, though it <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/movement-labs-mainnet-beta">doesn’t necessarily inherit</a> Ethereum’s security.



Number #4: Movement made the unusual decision to airdrop its MOVE token back in December 2024, long before its mainnet was live. The token launched at a market cap valuation of $1.5 billion, and has held up rather well at $1.2 billion today despite the recent market crash.&nbsp;



This is a striking departure from the norm. The well-worn playbook for most projects is to dangle the lure of a token before airdrop farmers to pump TVL numbers.



Berachain teased its token and mainnet for so long that a “Q5 launch” became a running joke. The Solana lending app MarginFi did the same with its token in 2024, resulting in backlash against what was perceived as an airdrop that was never going to arrive. MarginFi eventually lost more than 50% of its TVL.



Number #5: In a recent development, Movement is vying for a MOVE ETF after a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/apac/news-releases/movement-network-foundation-announces-rex-osprey-funds-files-for-first-us-movement-etf-as-public-mainnet-beta-launches-302397063.html">public filing</a> with the SEC yesterday under the REX-Opsrey funds. Crypto VCs counsel that “the token is a product,” and Movement really took that literally.



For a pre-launch project, Movement has done exceptionally well to stand out.



How is Movement doing after one day since launching? I realize it’s unfair to evaluate a project one day after mainnet launch, but let’s check in on it anyway.



Based on its <a href="https://explorer.movementlabs.xyz/?network=mainnet">block explorer</a>, there are at least 1.5k unique addresses which generated 233k transactions, in sharp contrast to its testnet performance of nearly 1 million active addresses and 15.5 million transactions.



The chain has about $250 million in TVL, according to a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/apac/news-releases/movement-network-foundation-announces-rex-osprey-funds-files-for-first-us-movement-etf-as-public-mainnet-beta-launches-302397063.html">press release</a>.



Got questions? Hop onto the 0xResearch X Space with Movement co-founder Rushi Manche on Friday to ask him anything.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Save the date! Movement co-founder <a href="https://twitter.com/rushimanche?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@rushimanche</a> joins <a href="https://twitter.com/0xResearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@0xResearch</a>&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/yeluacaM?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@yeluacaM</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/donovanchoy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@donovanchoy</a> to talk everything Movement<a href="https://t.co/gEm0Sjx9YU">https://t.co/gEm0Sjx9YU</a>&mdash; Blockworks (@Blockworks_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_/status/1899831742078374229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Disclosure: Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz is an angel investor in Movement Labs.



Updated March 13, 2025 at 10:16 am ET: Added disclosure.



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How Movement is winning the pre-launch marketing game

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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$1.9 to $2.64 billion.&nbsp;



That’s the amount of potential revenue that Dragonfly thinks US users have missed out on thanks to geoblocking. 



Okay, really, it’s more because of the regulatory environment — or should I say former environment.&nbsp;



“As of 2024, we estimate that 22-24% of all active crypto addresses worldwide belonged to US residents. Our sample of 11 projects generated a total value of approximately $7.16 billion to date, during which approximately 1.9 million claimers participated worldwide with an average median claim value of around $4.6 thousand per eligible address,” Dragonfly wrote.



As we’re all aware, projects have had to protect themselves by excluding US users from the party. Sad. 



If we want to look outside the box, it’s not just crypto folks who have lost out on potential bags.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1220" height="1026" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png" alt="" class="wp-image-98676" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=1220 1220w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=306 306w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=310 310w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=260 260w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/AD_4nXdzhT6Qrr7Of8h5Quh1xOcRTiSlRIR5FXCvMSRRJSg7p5NJZKXGX0lflsA0_j8apVbRI5HkGlMzbZpRvvXjF2soaN4u9L6bTP5dTlylpBWXr_x85UvvUBYyHoSS32Kh2t50QFTvyg.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1220px) 100vw, 1220px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Dragonfly</figcaption></figure>



“The federal tax revenue loss from these geoblocked airdrops ranges between $418 million and $1.1 billion, with an additional $107 million to $284 million in state tax revenue foregone,” Dragonfly wrote. “These figures do not account for further tax revenue that could have been generated from the capital gains taxes upon the eventual sale of these tokens.”



Oof.&nbsp;



Unless you’re a total contrarian — or anti-crypto — the consensus is that the last couple of years have not given us the regulatory clarity that crypto needs to survive and thrive.&nbsp;



Clearly, the data points to that. It also begs the question: Wen regulatory clarity on airdrops?&nbsp;



Right now, that’s not clear, though <a href="https://file.notion.so/f/f/72d93e2f-1985-4a88-b04f-6952ee4fb177/649fa7fc-6b06-4c6b-8d69-6c018657b88f/25.03.11_Dragonflys_State_of_Airdrops_Report_2025_Dragonfly_Report.pdf?table=block&amp;id=1b1af13b-6441-81ac-bbb4-f72d3226f230&amp;spaceId=72d93e2f-1985-4a88-b04f-6952ee4fb177&amp;expirationTimestamp=1741802400000&amp;signature=0ehNlSOYoMSkzXP3qxeHRgz_2PgaVdN_X3vooivJMPo&amp;downloadName=25.03.11_Dragonfly%E2%80%99s+State+of+Airdrops+Report+2025_Dragonfly+Report.pdf">Dragonfly used its study</a> to present a case that argues airdropped tokens aren’t securities under the Howey Test.



As for recommendations, the report suggests that non-fundraising airdrops include a safe harbor that would protect them. This harbor would include issuer disclosures, insider lock-up, consideration, functional platform and token post-launch and, finally, strict rules to target manipulation.&nbsp;



A safe harbor could be grandfathered into previous airdrops, too. Bonus points if the projects have to hand over data that demonstrates they’ve complied with the standards set forth.&nbsp;



I know we have a lot going on when it comes to trying to figure things out from a regulatory perspective at the moment. But clarifying and protecting both the firms behind airdrops and their users could give crypto a much-needed boost. Just saying.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto&#8217;s hottest networks.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

US users missed out on $2.6B in potential airdrop revenue: Dragonfly

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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A few months ago, I was bewitched into clicking on solanaroadmap.com, a website that just reads “increase bandwidth reduce latency” — Solana’s preferred rallying cry of late. So it took me a few days to get around to checking out an apparent 2025 roadmap put out by Anza, which is the developer shop spun out of Solana Labs.



This roadmap was not a troll. It teased Anza’s plans to double Solana blockspace this year and laid out a bunch of smaller improvements meant to equip Solana to handle transactions more efficiently. As Solana prepares for a wider rollout of the high-performance Firedancer client, Anza is still eating its veggies, so to speak, by making small but necessary changes to Solana’s code.&nbsp;



Anza develops Solana’s Agave client — the original validator software put out by Solana Labs — and works on a number of other engineering problems, similarly to how blockchain “labs” entities tend to work. Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz frequently mentions on the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@LightspeedpodHQ">Lightspeed podcast</a> that ironing out a number of small inefficiencies in Solana’s codebase could greatly improve the network’s already-industry-leading performance. Anza’s 2025 roadmap expresses a similar sentiment.&nbsp;



“Complex systems are not optimized by one magic fix but rather the accumulation of thousands of micro-advancements,” Anza Vice President of Core Engineering Brennan Watt wrote in the <a href="https://www.anza.xyz/blog/anzas-2025-mission-on-the-road-to-1m-tps">post</a>.



Some of these micro-advancements include <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-block-scheduler">improving Agave’s scheduler</a>, scaling Turbine (which is Solana’s block propagation protocol), and switching to a faster hashing algorithm for keeping data secure.



Increasing Solana’s block limit gets the most airtime out of the improvements in the piece. Currently, Solana blocks can contain up to 48 million compute units<s>.</s> Watt says this block limit constrains Solana’s bandwidth, or the amount of data it can handle.&nbsp;



Raising the amount of CUs that can be packed into a block can makes it difficult for network participants to handle the load, so Anza is starting off with a modest block limit <a href="https://github.com/solana-foundation/solana-improvement-documents/pull/207/commits/e6d42059c24b2cf655b862b118af3428462222fe">increase</a>, from 48 million to 50 million CUs per block.



One piece of the Solana network that could struggle with higher block limits is the so-called read layer, which must take blockchain data and turn it into a format that programs can read.  The read layer is a widespread question for 2025. In a different sort of roadmap, the Solana Foundation’s head of product <a href="https://x.com/pkxro/status/1885058467758534716">said</a> Solana’s read layer “needs an overhaul” and teased improvements to come this year.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto&#8217;s hottest networks.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

Solana dev shop’s 2025 roadmap aims to optimize efficiency, double blockspace

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">subscribe</a>.



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It’s a busy day in the House of Representatives. While the Financial Services Committee convenes for a hearing on digital payments (more on that later), reps are gearing up for two big votes. One is on the spending stopgap bill, and another deals with the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to roll back the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-vote-defi-broker-rule">IRS’ crypto exchange rule</a>. 



House Republicans unveiled their spending plan over the weekend. It calls for a $6 billion increase in defense spending and cuts non-defense spending by $13 billion. The deadline for a funding bill is this Friday.&nbsp;



The bill is expected to go to a floor vote as soon as tonight, but not all Republicans are on board. Rep. Thomas Massie has said he will vote no, while Reps. Cory Mills and Tim Burchett have said they’re undecided. 



Speaker Mike Johnson needs support from his entire party in both the House and the Senate, plus a few Democrats, to get the measure passed. 



The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-joint-resolution/25/text">CRA</a>, introduced in January with bipartisan support, is also supposed to head to a floor vote this afternoon. Reps started debating the resolution at noon today and, as of 2 pm ET, had not voted on the matter yet. 



It’s possible that the partisan nature of the spending bill will bleed into other pending legislation, but the extent of that remains to be seen. Keep an eye on your inbox tomorrow for updates.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

House debates overturning IRS crypto exchange rule

Let’s wind the clock back for a second: remember <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/arca-blocktower-merger-token-market">Blocktower’s merger with Arca</a>?&nbsp;



Let me refresh your memory. Last year, Arca announced that it was snapping up Blocktower, but there were some caveats. The venture capital side of the business, for example, was not included in the merger.&nbsp;



Today we’ve got an answer to what’s next for them: The team formerly behind Blocktower Capital — Thomas Klocanas, Steven Venino, and Winnie Lau — founded a new firm called Strobe.



For Klocanas, it made sense to be more independent. And then there’s the bonus of staying small when most shops in crypto expand while things are good. Plus, their focus now is only VC and they don’t have to worry about other sides of the business.&nbsp;



“Our internal determination was that what served our LPs and our strategy and our portfolio the best was thus far, having been very patient, very contrarian and largely independent, despite having been under the umbrella of another asset manager, Blocktower,” — which let the team focus on longer-term venture investing, he told me.&nbsp;



The team’s in the fourth year of deployment with its $150 million first fund, which they still deploy capital out of and expect to do so for the rest of the year, according to Klocanas.&nbsp;



The team is expected to “kick off a new $100 million raise” for its second fund. Klocanas told me that the timeline for that second fund is slightly in the air, though it could happen in the “coming weeks to months.”



While Klocanas was tight-lipped about the announcements we can expect to hear, he teased a couple of investments that’ll be announced shortly… just to pique your interest. When I hear more, trust me, we’ll be talking about it.&nbsp;



Beyond Strobe’s debut, Klocanas and I spoke about the current environment — namely that I’ve been told it’s a bit annoying to be a founder right now with everyone so obsessed with narratives and token prices and not so focused on the fundamentals of it all.&nbsp;



For Strobe, it’s about finding companies that’ll not only be around in five years (aka a millennia in crypto) but also projects that have a focus on the aforementioned fundamentals because, understandably, something like revenue is nice.&nbsp;



“We take the view that it&#8217;s not sustainable to trade billions of dollars if you&#8217;re not making hundreds of millions of dollars empowering hundreds of millions of users,” he told me.



A lot of the founders they’ve backed recently have experience building up multiple projects. They have Morpho, Ethena, Ledger, TYB, Aptos and Maple Finance all under their portfolio, if you’re looking to get a sense of who they’re interested in.



Klocanas said the founders he looks for aren’t necessarily the ones posting a lot on CT, but rather they’re “deeply obsessed” with pinpointing and solving for a problem using crypto as leverage.&nbsp;



Now we’ll just have to keep an eye on Klocanas, Venino and Lau’s next steps.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto&#8217;s hottest networks.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

Former Blocktower VCs plot new $100M fund

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Members of the House Financial Services Committee heard from crypto and banking executives on the state of payment stablecoins this morning.&nbsp;



Lawmakers have a few bills to consider: the <a href="https://files.constantcontact.com/9f2b5e3d701/6c1f8aa0-095c-4a22-9982-2f4380d0b531.pdf">STABLE Act</a>, Rep. Tom Emmer’s <a href="https://emmer.house.gov/press-releases?ID=E5F1A85D-F204-496A-9AAC-9EEFB6D01DD7">anti-CBDC bill</a>, and the CRA seeking to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-joint-resolution/64/text">overturn the CFPB’s</a> new rule that would expand federal supervision over wallet and payment providers.&nbsp;



The hearing comes as the industry continues to quarrel over <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-top-priority">what stablecoin regulation</a> should look like in the US. In the Senate, the latest discussion draft of the GENIUS Act sets reserve and anti-money laundering requirements for overseas stablecoin issuers. The bill is set to go to mark-up on Thursday.&nbsp;



Both the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act seek to divide oversight authority between federal and state agencies.&nbsp;



Party lines showed during today’s hearing. Rep. Maxine Waters, in her opening remarks, criticized the Trump administration for its approach to the digital asset industry.&nbsp;



“Despite my belief that the Trump administration only wants crypto legislation that personally benefits them and protects [its] crypto financiers, I still hope that we can work together on a bill that requires stablecoins be robustly and fairly regulated,” Waters said to Rep. French Hill.&nbsp;



Trump last week said he expects to have a stablecoin bill on his desk by August. But if committees keep up their current pace, a bill could make it to a full floor vote sooner.&nbsp;



Of course, for anything to make it to the White House, both chambers will have to approve the legislation. That could be a tall order.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

House Financial Services kicks off stablecoin discussions 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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After Trump’s executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve fell flat for some, we have a new development.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-btc-reserve-mixed-reactions">Criticisms</a> of the EO? The vague language around possibly buying more BTC. Plus, Trump doesn’t have Congressional support. Not yet, at least.&nbsp;



Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis seeks to rectify that by re-introducing <a href="https://www.lummis.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/BITCOINAct.pdf">a bill</a> that stalled last year.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The BITCOIN Act is back. <a href="https://t.co/WNeU6SWPj3">pic.twitter.com/WNeU6SWPj3</a>&mdash; Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1899449083628036177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“This asset is a game-changer for the whole world,” Lummis said Tuesday at a Bitcoin Policy Institute event. “So for America — the leader in financial innovation — to have sat on the sidelines for as long as we have is unusual for us.”&nbsp;



Trump’s executive order — committing to not selling the country’s stash of roughly 200,000 seized bitcoin — gets the US off the sidelines and “in the arena of global policymaking,” she added.&nbsp;



But it was still just a first step.&nbsp;



While Trump’s EO authorized the Treasury and Commerce secretaries to develop “budget-neutral” strategies to buy more bitcoin, Lummis’ bill draft offers more specifics.



In case you forgot, the senator’s so-called BITCOIN Act — first <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">unveiled last July</a> — includes buying up to 200,000 bitcoin per year over a five-year period. So a million BTC, or roughly 5% of the asset’s total supply.&nbsp;



The Treasury department would issue new gold certificates to the Federal Reserve that reflect current prices, and the Fed would use the difference (between the old and new certificates) to fund the buying.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The Secretary of the Treasury would hold all BTC bought for and deposited in this reserve for at least 20 years to ensure its “long-term stability and security,” the bill notes.&nbsp;



Michael Saylor spoke shortly after Lummis, doing some math for us.



Moving 20 years into the future, the Strategy executive chair’s base case for bitcoin price is more than $13 million per coin. Yes, you read that right.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Under that scenario, the ~200,000 BTC the US government already has from forfeiture proceedings would be worth about $3 trillion in 2045.&nbsp;



That alone is valuable, as Saylor said frankly: “Sometimes the absence of doing awful and stupid things is making money.” He was, of course, referring to selling bitcoin. Remember <a href="https://x.com/davidsacks47/status/1897640660338925938">this tweet</a> from crypto/AI czar David Sacks?&nbsp;



But the bigger opportunity is buying another million BTC to make the pile worth roughly $16 trillion, Saylor noted.



Lummis was at home sick with pneumonia during Friday’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-summit-without-substance">White House crypto summit</a>. At times that meant watching news anchors mistake bitcoin with ETH and other digital assets, she said.&nbsp;



<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-28/lummis-says-bitcoin-reserve-is-likely-to-come-first-from-states">Lummis said last month</a> there’re Congress members still not understanding BTC’s role as a sort of “digital gold.” She noted that US states could thus <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-states-btc-reserve-proposals">approve a bitcoin reserve</a> before the federal government.



The senator’s home state is among those where bitcoin reserve proposals have recently died.



Lummis’ PR team didn’t immediately comment on whether Lummis expects to see more support for the proposal this time around. I feel like we’ve preached about the value of patience before, so I’ll spare you.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>
</ul>

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