BOX Token

Jonathan Hargreaves

Fiat currencies are evaluated on a variety of factors from usability and integrity to interest rates and demand; ultimately, bitcoin should be assessed on a wider set of criteria.



The price of bitcoin has long been a media obsession.



Every industry milestone appears defined solely by the price of bitcoin the following day: “Bitcoin price falls 15% following launch of ETFs,” <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/99e406f0-c5af-4a67-9937-afb1ea885565">crowed</a> the Financial Times, following the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s bitcoin ETF <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">approval in January</a>. 



This is slightly unfair.&nbsp;



Between July and November last year, the euro fell 7% against the US dollar, and no one questioned the validity of the former as a means of exchange. This is because the euro — even at a 7% depreciated value — remains a useful means of payment; it is universally accepted and requires no training, knowledge or equipment to use.



This is not (yet) the case with bitcoin, but considering “price” as its only measure of value is the same as valuing traditional currencies (only) according to the current exchange rate.&nbsp;



The latter certainly contains valuable information about the opportunity cost of holding other currencies, as well as the monetary and fiscal policies associated with the currency in question. However, there are plenty of other indicators that can define a currency’s value, including interest rates and prevailing inflation. It all depends on one’s perspective.&nbsp;&nbsp;



For instance, if you are a validator, Bitcoin’s value is tied up in gas fees — the commission independent validators receive for maintaining the integrity of the network.&nbsp; Last year’s gas fees for bitcoin reached a <a href="https://archive.ph/iTQ9Z">historical high</a> of $40, reflecting unprecedented demand and transaction volumes.&nbsp;



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-is-not-scarce">If you still think bitcoin is scarce, you’re suffering from fiat brain</a>



For corporations considering using bitcoin as a medium of exchange, the idea of value is associated with the levels of security associated with the currency. When examining bitcoin&#8217;s value then, for instance, one could look at the open letter penned by a member of the US Space Force on the <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jasonplowery_an-open-letter-to-the-defense-innovation-activity-7136779515376087040-Wq3c/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_ios">possibility</a> of using Bitcoin’s proof-of-work protocol in underpinning the country’s defense systems.



The security afforded by a currency is also partly measured in the cost of transacting in the same. With bitcoin, that would mean considering gas fees, which represent the cost of independently validating and protecting your transaction.&nbsp; While the correlation is not necessarily entirely linear, higher gas fees indicate greater levels of scrutiny and vigilance associated with a decentralized currency, in addition to demand.&nbsp;



The advent of Bitcoin staking will create yet another measure of Bitcoin’s value; the chance to earn interest (or a return) from the bitcoin tokens under management. While blockchains such as Tezos, Cosmos, Solana, Cardano and, most famously, Ethereum have traditionally enabled dormant tokens to be put to work (verifying transactions and the status of tokens, according to the corresponding smart contracts), this has never previously been possible with Bitcoin.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Bitcoin layer-2 technology will make it possible for unused bitcoin to be staked; in effect, put to work, just as fiat currencies are within a savings account. The more useful people find bitcoin (i.e. the more transactions in terms of volume and frequency), the more confidence people have in the currency. And the more uses they find for Bitcoin-denominated smart contracts, the higher the Bitcoin interest rate will climb. The opposite is also true — a plunge in confidence or sudden availability of a more convenient, safer, cheaper alternative will lead to a reduction in the Bitcoin interest rate.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



All of the above represents different measures of Bitcoin’s value beyond its price on a given day, in exactly the same way that fiat currencies are evaluated according to different perspectives and uses.&nbsp;



Ultimately, the true test of any currency is its usefulness; the ease with which goods can be exchanged using it. Bitcoin is making steps towards becoming easier to use, despite — it must be added — unprecedented levels of hostility from <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog20240222~0929f86e23.en.html">legacy actors</a>, including regulators and central banks. All this for a currency that no one is imposing on anyone else, requires no disclosure of personal information to third parties, and is cheaper and more accessible than most fiat-based transactions (particularly those cross- border).



To paraphrase one of traditional finance’s most enduring slogans — Mastercard’s, no less — for all these reasons, the true value of Bitcoin is “priceless.”



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<div class="wp-block-post-author-biography">Jonathan currently serves as the Global Head of Growth at the Web3 ecosystem, Elastos, overseeing marketing, business development, investment and ecosystem strategies. With a background in corporate communications and technology marketing from roles at Edelman, Weber Shandwick, and Burson-Marsteller, Jonathan has transitioned to focus on Web3 innovation in his recent positions at Elastos and CreDA.</div>


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Don’t let bitcoin be defined by its price

Casey Wagner

Michael McSweeney

Shortly after 8 pm ET, the network underwent its fourth mining subsidy halving, with per-block rewards falling from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.&nbsp;



The 840,000th block was a notable <a href="https://mempool.space/block/0000000000000000000320283a032748cef8227873ff4872689bf23f1cda83a5">affair</a> unto itself. It boasted 37.626 BTC in fees —&nbsp;a cool $2.4 million for ViaBTC, the Chinese mining pool that scored the winning block.&nbsp;



According to the block explorer Mempool.space, someone <a href="https://mempool.space/tx/2bb85f4b004be6da54f766c17c1e855187327112c231ef2ff35ebad0ea67c69e">paid</a> roughly nearly $430,000 in fees in an apparent effort to get their transaction in the 840,000th block —&nbsp;a rather expensive way to become part of history, we’d reckon.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-2024-occurs">Bitcoin’s block reward slashed by 50% following 2024 halving</a>



As expected, Crypto Twitter, the social hub of the ecosystem, saw its share of celebratory posts.&nbsp;



BBQ dinners, livestream chats and countless screenshots of block explorers and countdown timers peppered our streams post-halving. At the bitcoin bar PubKey in New York City, party-goers busted out the tuxedo ties.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-market-response">Bitcoin hovers around $63,600 following the halving</a>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Which one of these things is not like the other…? <a href="https://t.co/96VtMLmmlY">pic.twitter.com/96VtMLmmlY</a>&mdash; PUBKEY (@PubKey_NYC) <a href="https://twitter.com/PubKey_NYC/status/1781469660052889625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



We have to say: Kudos to those who opted the phrase “<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=bitcoin%20halfing&amp;src=typed_query">Bitcoin halfing</a>,” which is somehow more eyebrow-raising than the (justifiably) oft-maligned “<a href="https://twitter.com/MarathonDH/status/1781475480790565222">Bitcoin halvening</a>.” 



Our toes were tapping here at Blockworks thanks to Jonathan Mann, otherwise known as Song A Day Man, who rang in the halving with a new song.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">someone has to write a song to celebrate the halving and it may as well be me. <a href="https://t.co/qAw47CZoxR">pic.twitter.com/qAw47CZoxR</a>&mdash; 16 years of song a day (@songadaymann) <a href="https://twitter.com/songadaymann/status/1781441455732543675?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The memes started rolling in quickly, too.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">crypto bros in the club tn: yeah so it depends on the time zone you’re in, but for some people the Bitcoin halving actually happened on 4/20 which is so sick <a href="https://t.co/0SUsd5gssV">pic.twitter.com/0SUsd5gssV</a>&mdash; Jacquelyn Melinek (@jacqmelinek) <a href="https://twitter.com/jacqmelinek/status/1781478077303771164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The analysts were right, at least so far, the halving certainly seems to have been priced in. Those hoping for dramatic price moves were disappointed. It’s back to our regularly scheduled programming.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">happy halving <a href="https://t.co/aFuNoYfRan">pic.twitter.com/aFuNoYfRan</a>&mdash; Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) <a href="https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1781477488817766640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, reminded her followers that what the event really means is that bitcoin’s scarcity has increased.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEVER IN HUMAN HISTORY has a good that people use as money been this scarce. Happy <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bitcoin</a> halving, peeps! <a href="https://t.co/dLigDQj2Vi">pic.twitter.com/dLigDQj2Vi</a>&mdash; Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 (@CaitlinLong_) <a href="https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1781476490661470658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



And really…that’s it. We might be forgiven for saying that this particular halving was, well, normal, for lack of a better phrase. Maybe it’s a little bit of the bitcoin ETF effect.&nbsp;



Anyway, we’ll catch you next time —&nbsp;for those looking to market their calendars for halving #5, Bitcoin’s next one is approximately 1,400 days away.



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Tuxedos, songs and memes mark Bitcoin’s fourth halving

Katherine Ross

Bitcoin underwent its quadrennial halving at 8:10 pm ET Friday in New York, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.



Immediately following the event, the price of bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) was largely unchanged at around $63,600. It was trading 1.15% higher over 24-hours at time of publication, per Coinbase.&nbsp;



The largest cryptocurrency is now 13% lower than its all-time high of $73,000 set in March. It’s the first time bitcoin has entered a halving event so closely after hitting a new price record.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-2024-occurs">Bitcoin’s block reward slashed by 50% following 2024 halving</a>



Despite historical precedent of bitcoin reaching new highs in the months following a <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a>, analysts warn this time could be different. JPMorgan researchers — along with most teams across the crypto industry — say the halving is already priced in.&nbsp;



In the months following bitcoin’s last halving in 2020, the crypto notched its former all-time high of $69,000. Similarly, in 2016, it hit $20,000.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">The history of Bitcoin halvings — and why this time might look different</a>



As Iranian-Israeli tensions persist, geopolitical tensions may still be weighing on crypto markets. On Thursday night, Israel carried out a retaliatory attack against Iran. Bitcoin crashed to below $60,000 following reports of the strike. It pared some losses Friday, trading in the mid-$60,000 range for most of the day.&nbsp;



Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage told Blockworks via email that the firm believes, despite how the halving “plays out,” that “the investment case for bitcoin remains as strong as ever as institutional interest accelerates amidst a favorable macro environment and positive on-chain developments.”



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Bitcoin hovers around $63,600 following the halving

Ben Strack

Per-block bitcoin mining rewards officially dropped at 8:10 pm ET Friday in New York, marking the arrival of a rare industry event expected to spur ripple effects.



Known as a Bitcoin halving, such events happen roughly every four years. With the 2024 halving complete, the block reward that miners collect now stands at 3.125 BTC — down from 6.25 BTC.&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s 840,000 block was mined by ViaBTC Friday evening.&nbsp;



The halving has been top of mind for industry participants due in part to the event’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">historical impact on bitcoin price</a>.&nbsp;



Despite the small sample size of such occurrences, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">Bitcoin halvings</a> have seemed to catalyze crypto bull markets.



Bitcoin’s price grew nearly 100 times from $12 on Nov. 28, 2012 — the date of the first Bitcoin halving — to $1,164 some 367 days later, Berenberg Capital Markets analysts said in a 2023 report.



After the 2016 halving, it took 524 days for BTC to rise from about $650 to a then-record $19,712, the report added. Bitcoin hit a then-all-time high of more than $69,000 in November 2021, 549 days after the 2020 bitcoin halving.&nbsp;



Read from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-different-institutions-investors">This Bitcoin halving will be different — the institutions are here</a>



Bitcoin’s price was roughly unchanged immediately following the event. It was trading at $63,783 at time of publication, per Coinbase.&nbsp;



Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco pointed out in a research note earlier this month that BTC for the first time reached a new price record leading up to the halving — “a departure for previous cycles” that could signal <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-record-monthly-growth-streak-jeopardized">uncertainty about what’s next</a>.



Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high price of more than $73,500 on March 14.&nbsp;



“If historical trends hold true, we might anticipate the peak of this cycle occurring between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first half of 2025,” Greco previously told Blockworks.



Aside from the halving’s projected impact on <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">bitcoin</a> price, the event is set to affect the mining companies that will now start collecting lower rewards per block.



Players in the industry had been preparing for the halving in a number of ways — from acquiring mining sites and machines to cutting costs and diversifying revenue sources.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mining-firms-prepare-for-bitcoin-halving">The Bitcoin halving is just weeks away — here’s how miners have prepared</a>



Still, segment observers <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-outlook-for-public-miners">expect pain to hit a number of miners</a> in the coming weeks and months — particularly those with weaker balance sheets and higher energy costs.



Some with more capital at their disposal have signaled they could opt to acquire machines, sites or even companies in the coming months.



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Bitcoin’s block reward slashed by 50% following 2024 halving

David Canellis

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Four more years!</h2>



Bitcoin Halving Day is here (at least, that&#8217;s what some countdowns are projecting, sometime before midnight ET).&nbsp;



Finally!



By now, you’ve slogged through waves of halving takes from a bevy of venture capitalists, influencers, founders, proponents and, increasingly, Wall Street analysts. Even the Guardian put out an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/19/what-is-bitcoin-halving-price#:~:text=Halving%20reduces%20the%20supply%20of%20new%20bitcoins%2C%20which%20should%20in,its%20price%20should%20go%20up.">article</a> this morning discussing what the halving could do to bitcoin’s price.



The halving is, after all, a spectacle that only comes round once every four years, as the good folks at Resistance Money <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-halving-major-spectacle-satoshi">pointed</a> out this week.&nbsp;



So, like we would cheer for Olympic trampoliners or canoeists, we might rally behind bitcoin miners who have to actually <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/depressed-miner-stocks-bitcoin-halving">grapple with the consequences of the halving</a>. But when Bitcoin adds its 840,000th block sometime tonight or early tomorrow, nothing will really change for those of us watching the countdown on Twitter from our couches.



Prepare to be underwhelmed in the moment, outside of some price volatility.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/post-bitcoin-halving-price-predictions">With halving just hours away, bitcoin price predictions proliferate&nbsp;</a>



The big secret is that the whole thing just gives us all something to chat about for a while, resulting in a million different ways to say:&nbsp;



“The price has gone up before after halvings but who knows what might happen this time. And if the price of bitcoin drops too far, some miners may switch off their rigs until it’s profitable again. Traders might ‘buy the rumor’ and ‘sell the news.’ Bitcoin will be okay in any case.”&nbsp;



The actual halving itself may not exactly be thrilling. But it does close the chapter on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">four years of Bitcoin and crypto history</a>.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Seven fun facts and stats from this cycle:</h2>



<ol>
<li>F2Pool mined the last block before our current halving cycle began (block 629,999) and included a message: “NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed&#8217;s Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue.” It was a nod to Satoshi Nakamoto’s genesis block note.</li>



<li>Antpool mined the following block, the first to include a 6.25 BTC reward (block 630,000). There was no additional message attached.</li>



<li>Bitcoin’s price was $8,730 when the 2020 halving hit ($10,635 adjusted for inflation). It’s up more than 600% since then.</li>



<li>Bitcoin’s hash rate was 137.5713 exahashes per second at the start of the cycle, now 625.05 EH/s (up 350%).</li>



<li>12,634 <a href="https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/">addresses</a> contained $1 million or more bitcoin when Bitcoin last halved. Now there are more than 111,000 — nine times more.</li>



<li>Addresses with more than $1 in bitcoin rose from 22.12 million to 46.54 million.</li>



<li>Active addresses are practically the <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/addresses/active-addresses">same</a> today as they were four years ago, around 878,000 per day. One point in February 2021 saw 1.15 million per day, the highest on record.</li>
</ol>



One more for the haters —&nbsp;some say this halving is more bullish than the others, as bitcoin for the first time hit an all-time high before issuance was cut. But that’s not completely true.



Bitcoin nearly hit $69,000 in November 2021, setting an all-time high that would stand for years. The US dollar is, however, an imperfect benchmark for bitcoin’s value: The total <a href="https://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html?cstartingamount1=68%2C997.75&amp;cinmonth1=11&amp;cinyear1=2021&amp;coutmonth1=3&amp;coutyear1=2024&amp;calctype=1&amp;x=Calculate#uscpi">inflation</a> rate from then until now is 12.37%. Bitcoin’s high was really $77,533 in today’s dollars and that hasn’t been broken.



Bitcoin only reached $73,757 last month — almost 5% short of the inflation-adjusted record.&nbsp;



Here’s to better luck after the halving.



— David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Data Center</h2>



<ul>
<li>When this newsletter hit your inbox, there were fewer than 80 blocks to be mined before the halving.</li>



<li>The block reward will drop from about $1.76 billion BTC per month to $882.8 million after the halving, at current prices.</li>



<li>Bitcoin miners on average earned $91.6 million per month in <a href="https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/bitcoin">fees</a> over the past year.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Bitcoin DeFi has more total value <a href="https://defillama.com/chains">locked</a> than Avalanche, Polygon and Optimism heading into the next halving cycle, with $1.21 billion.</li>



<li>Foundry and Antpool are most likely to mine the halving <a href="https://coin.dance/blocks/today">block</a>, with 29% and 27% odds, followed by F2Pool with 9.7%.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Try again next year&nbsp;</h2>



Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kristen Gillibrand dropped yet another crypto bill this week. The industry reviews are in: not good.



Critics say the bill is fundamentally flawed — allowing payment stablecoins issuers to bypass paying deposit insurance premiums, for example, would rob the FDIC of essential funding, opposers <a href="https://x.com/ProfHilaryAllen/status/1780953716390039659">argue</a>.&nbsp;



The bipartisan bill proposes banning algorithmic stablecoins (thanks, TerraUSD), mandates one-to-one reserves and brings issuers under existing KYC and anti-money laundering regulations.&nbsp;



At risk of sounding terribly cynical, it doesn’t matter what you think of this bill because it’s not going to pass. It’s probably not even going to make it to committee for markup.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">Bipartisan Congressional group tries to repeal controversial SEC crypto custody policy&nbsp;</a>



For a bill to move, the chair and the ranking member of the relevant House and/or Senate committee have to sign off.&nbsp;



For crypto, that means getting the greenlight from Reps. Patrick McHenry (who is favorable toward crypto, but on the way out) and Maxine Waters (who is decidedly not favorable toward crypto) of the House Financial Services Committee.&nbsp;



Over in the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/senate">Senate</a> Banking Committee, Sens. Sherrod Brown (also a vocal critic of crypto and up for reelection in a thus-far narrow race) and Tim Scott (who has been supportive of the industry in the past) will have to get on board.&nbsp;



For this latest <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/cynthia-lummis">Lummis</a> and Gillibrand bill, Sen. Brown is really who they need in their corner.&nbsp;



So far, he’s just not there. Brown this week even mused about looping in stablecoin regulation into a bigger legislative package, one that would focus on allowing marijuana companies access to the banking system and clawback executive salaries from failed lenders.&nbsp;



Either way, Brown has an election to win, so it’s doubtful anything else is taking priority.&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Who needs institutions anyway?</h2>



Let’s do a little vibe check.&nbsp;



One of the biggest narratives this year has been that the institutions are finally here, thanks, in part, to spot bitcoin ETFs. And there’s no doubt that the institutions have shown interest — but they’re waiting on the sidelines still.&nbsp;



Retail is still the “best thing at this party,” as Taylor Swift would say.&nbsp;



BitGo CEO Mike Belshe <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-interview-bitgo-ceo">told</a> Blockworks that the demand for the bitcoin ETFs is “mostly retail.” It’s a statement backed up by the slew of 13Fs that have been filed so far by institutional managers, which showed small holdings.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/macro-driver-crypto-prices-bitcoin-etfs">ETF adoption set to keep driving bitcoin price: 10T’s Dan Tapiero</a>



Goldman Sachs digital assets head Mathew McDermott, at the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/digital-asset-summit">Digital Assets Summit</a> in March, said the crypto price rally has been driven in part by retail. McDermott also noted that institutions “have started to come in.”



No one is saying that the institutions aren’t interested — just that it takes time.&nbsp;



Institutional involvement is going to be a “slow burn,” S&amp;P’s Global Digital Assets Research Lab managing director Andrew O’Neill told Blockworks.



“Because we&#8217;re so early in the adoption curve in general, we&#8217;re naturally also early to institutional adoption,” Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s head of strategy, said.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/goldman-sachs-future-public-blockchains">Goldman Sachs head of digital assets: The future is on public blockchains&nbsp;</a>



O’Neill believes the momentum has shifted. Teams will start to take notice and will research into the potential innovations and look to get “their various investment committees over the line as well.”&nbsp;



The retail demand, however, “has been growing,” Belshe told Blockworks. In the context of the bitcoin ETFs, some of the retail folks are finally getting access to an asset class that might have been<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-interview-bitgo-ceo"> too difficult to “touch” before</a>, he added.



If the performance we’ve seen — not only in the price action but also in the ferocious appetite for a new type of product — has been any indication, then the institutions are more than welcome, though retail’s ready to rock and roll.&nbsp;



We’re not going to be having the same conversation four years down the line, so soak up what will probably be the last retail-focused halving.



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Works</h2>



<ul>
<li>The New York Times explained what led to the detention of Binance compliance exec <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/technology/binance-crypto-compliance-officer-nigerian-prison.html">Tigran Gambaryan</a> in Nigeria.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Meta released a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/technology/meta-ai-assistant-push.html">new AI assistant</a> on Facebook, Instagram and other social media apps.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>



<li>Crypto trader Avraham Eisenberg was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mango-markets-trader-guilty">convicted</a> yesterday in a landmark crypto trial after a day of jury deliberations.&nbsp;</li>



<li>A recent Federal Reserve paper <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/financial-stability-implications-of-cbdc.htm">explored</a> the financial stability implications of different CBDC designs.</li>



<li>JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank believe the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/bitcoin-halving-seen-mostly-priced-in-by-jpmorgan-deutsche-bank?embedded-checkout=true">Bitcoin halving</a> is “mostly” priced in, according to Bloomberg.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Morning Riff</h2>



Question: Is the halving still exciting? Or is it old hat at this point?



David: The mystique around halvings is way more interesting than the halvings themselves.&nbsp;



A 50% reduction in issuance sounds like a lot, but it’s all relative: The difference between 900 BTC ($58.4 million) per day and 450 BTC ($29.2 million) is minimal for the overall market, which sees more than $52 billion in <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin">reported</a> BTC trading volume per day right now.&nbsp;



What a few mining outfits with tight operating margins do with less bitcoin doesn’t really matter to anyone.&nbsp;



Still, fewer coins on the market sounds bullish, and that’s really the most interesting thing about halvings: how markets will react to the narrative.



Katherine: The halving’s still exciting, it’s only the fourth one! We can’t be jaded about it yet.



Bitcoin’s only just hit its stride when it comes to mass adoption and, if we’re being honest, mass understanding. There’s also the fact that we’ve seen bitcoin notch new headlines, and the bitcoin ETFs are still fresh out the gate.



In 2020, the halving wasn’t something a lot of people really paid attention to, but the proof is in the pudding: People are intrigued and invested in the halving and what it means not only for the price but for the ETFs and the miners.&nbsp;



Don’t believe me? Just look at the <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=bitcoin%20halving,halving">Google Trends</a> data.&nbsp;



— Katherine Ross, David Canellis



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Empire Newsletter: Bitcoin is halving a moment

The Securities and Exchange Commission amended its complaint against Justin Sun on Thursday evening.



The complaint, filed initially in March 2023, alleges that the founder of Tron’s network sold unregistered securities.&nbsp;



In the amended complaint, the SEC alleges that Sun traveled “extensively” to the US on behalf of Tron, BitTorrent and Rainberry.



“Specifically, Sun spent more than 80 days in the United States in 2017, more than 120 days in the United States in 2018, and approximately 180 days in the United States in 2019. During Sun’s business trips to the United States in 2019, he spent time in various cities, including New York City, Boston, Massachusetts, and San Francisco,” the SEC added to its complaint on Thursday.



As part of the regulator’s approach to establish jurisdiction, the Commission added that Sun — who is not a US citizen — broadcasted a livestream from the San Francisco office which allegedly promoted the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/tron">Tron</a> ecosystem.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-sues-justin-sun">SEC sues Tron network founder for allegedly selling securities</a>



“During the livestream, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/justin-sun">Sun</a> explained that BTT would benefit TRX holders because ‘the current Tron community’ would be allocated with BTT, meaning that TRX holders would be ‘entitled’ to receive ‘the BTT airdrop.’ Sun stated that, because of the relationship between TRX and BTT, ‘the TRX community [was] tied with the BTT community,’” the complaint claims.



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a>’s amended filing pushes back against Sun’s lawyers, who previously tried to claim — in a motion to dismiss filed earlier this year — that the SEC’s claims were “out of the SEC’s regulatory reach.” The Commission, the motion added, failed to establish “personal jurisdiction over each foreign defendant for each claim.”



“This case originates with foreign digital asset offerings to foreign purchasers on global platforms,” the lawyers wrote.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-discontinues-usdc-on-tron">Circle cites compliance as it discontinues USDC on Tron</a>



The SEC’s initial complaint alleged that Sun distributed billions of both TTX and BTT tokens to the public, and created secondary markets to trade the assets. In an argument similar to what we’ve seen from the SEC in other cases that they’ve brought against crypto firms, the Commission said Sun needed to register the sales but failed to.



Alongside the press release at the time, the SEC accused Sun of “fraudulently manipulating the secondary market for TRX through extensive wash trading.”



The SEC, outside of its focus on Sun, settled with eight celebrities last year, including Lindsey Lohan, for promoting the tokens.



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SEC amends case against Justin Sun to establish jurisdiction

We are now just hours away from the Bitcoin halving.&nbsp;



If you still don’t know what that means, now’s the time to clear that up. In short, the issuance of new bitcoin per block is set to drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While many analysts and executives have weighed in on what this roughly quadrennial event will spur from a bitcoin price action standpoint, what we know is that nobody knows for sure.&nbsp;



Segment observers have looked at the three past halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 for help — though that isn’t exactly a large sample size.&nbsp;



Besides, some have pointed out that this time is different considering the approval of US spot bitcoin ETFs just months before the event. Demand for those products helped fuel a crypto rally and a new all-time high BTC price above $73,000 last month.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">The history of Bitcoin halvings — and why this time might look different</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Price to trend up…if history holds</h2>



We’ve heard it from many on repeat in recent days, weeks and months: Bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halvings</a> tend to catalyze crypto bull markets.&nbsp;



But Framework Ventures co-founder Michael Anderson noted that previous bitcoin halving cycles suggest the event’s potential impact might not become apparent for 12 to 18 months from now.



“While halvings tend to get plenty of media attention, and also serve as a timely reminder of the importance of bitcoin’s limited money supply, the reduction in supply issuance hasn’t historically had an immediate effect on the crypto markets,” Anderson said.&nbsp;



But as mentioned, pre-halving bitcoin price action broke the mold by hitting a new record just weeks before the event, which Anderson said “implies that old models are likely less reliable.”



“It&#8217;s entirely possible that newer, more institutional market entrants that were onboarded through the ETFs are perhaps less jaded and more excited about halvings, and so the timeline for a market upswing might come sooner than expected,” he added.&nbsp;



Everyone knows when a Bitcoin halving is coming, with this one occurring at block 840,000.&nbsp;



One might assume that means the upcoming halving is reflected in bitcoin’s current price. BTC hovered around $64,000 at 1 pm ET Friday — down about 8% from a week ago.



&#8220;Digital asset investors and traders constantly ask the question, ‘Is the halving priced in,’ and each cycle it tends to not be,” said Matt Ballensweig, head of BitGo’s Go Network.



While bitcoin’s price went up prior to the SEC’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">approval of spot bitcoin ETFs</a> in January, it rallied further in the 60 days afterward, he added.&nbsp;



“With the halving, traders might try [to] position themselves ahead of the event,” Ballensweig said. “But when the event occurs, there will be less daily supply on the exchange order books, and assuming constant demand, that will again lead to bid-side pressure as the sell-side is thinner.”



The Bitcoin halving is “never priced in,” according to Andreas Brekken, a former Kraken software engineer and founder of SideShift.ai.



Bitcoin ETF investors — many of which are paying attention to the halving for the first time — will be reminded of bitcoin’s scarcity, Brekken noted.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-is-not-scarce">If you still think bitcoin is scarce, you’re suffering from fiat brain</a>



“It may take months for this realization to sink in fully,” he said. “Based on this, I expect BTC to reach $200,000 in this cycle.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Short-term uncertainty</h2>



Matteo Greco, a research analyst at Fineqia International wrote in an April 15 research note that while previous halving events have historically been followed by nine to 12 months of uptrend, they have typically caused short-term “sell the news&#8221; reactions before and after the event.



There has been increased profit-taking among both crypto and traditional ETF investors, he added.&nbsp;



“This natural behavior follows seven months of continuous growth, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in April or in one of the following months,” Greco previously told Blockworks.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-record-monthly-growth-streak-jeopardized">Why BTC’s record monthly growth streak could be in jeopardy</a>



While LMAX market strategist said he too agrees there is potential for a “sell-the-news reaction” immediate after the halving, such setbacks could proceed a quick rally toward $100,000.&nbsp;



“The main differentiating factor this time around is that we have traditional markets as an audience,” Kruger told Blockworks. “This could alter the trading landscape in the sense that these new market participants will have an opportunity to learn more about bitcoin and its attractive properties that make it so exciting as an asset.”



Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Hashdex, said bitcoin could see a pullback to the mid-$50,000 range. That would fall in line with previous mid-cycle corrections of 30%, he noted.&nbsp;



More bearish still, JPMorgan analysts have said they think <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jpmorgan-bitcoin-looking-overbought">bitcoin could drop to $42,000 after the halving</a>.



Optimism over the prospect for bitcoin’s price rising significantly by year-end in part is based on the assumption that spot bitcoin ETFs would continue at the same pace, they noted.&nbsp;



The US BTC fund category, however, has seen <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-etf-record-outflows">net outflows in each of the last five days</a>.&nbsp;



There are also the bitcoin miners to consider.



The halving reduces the per-block rewards they will receive, putting pressure on their profitability. Miners with less access to capital and less efficient fleets are particularly vulnerable, segment observers have said.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-outlook-for-public-miners">Financial trouble for bitcoin miners: A look back, and ahead as the halving looms</a>



Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer of Komodo Platform, said he expects bitcoin could trade “sideways” for three months after the halving due to sell-offs from miners.&nbsp;



But Wes Levitt, co-chief investment officer for Alpha Transform Holdings, argued that miner profit margins are higher than anticipated — meaning more muted sales of their BTC reserves.



He also noted that the combined market capitalization of the largest stablecoins — tether (USDT), USDC and DAI — recently reached a record of about $146 billion.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Levitt added: “With less selling pressure post-halving and cash ready to re-enter the market once halving concerns have passed, BTC price should accelerate quickly.”



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With halving just hours away, bitcoin price predictions proliferate 

As the crypto market rebounds after its longest bear market to date, venture capital into the space is also starting to pick back up.&nbsp;



Infrastructure projects are still in need of investments, while startups focused on the intersection of AI and blockchains are also likely to attract funding, industry watchers said.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



There were 444 disclosed private financings during the first three months of 2024, according to a report by crypto advisory firm Architect Partners — amounting to $3.1 billion raised.



This was a substantial quarter-over-quarter increase in both categories, with capital raised up 36% and the number of financings increasing by 77%.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-startups-increased-funding">Funding Wrap: AI startups score high in 2024 thus far</a>



Despite the uptick, the current pace of $12.4 billion for the year would be more than 50% below the crypto financing capital totals seen in 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;



Architect Partners managing partner Eric Risley said he expects the first quarter bump in crypto venture capital funding to persist throughout 2024 and beyond — barring a crypto market crash or regulatory challenges.&nbsp;



“Crypto has recently emerged from a challenging phase marked by fraud, inadequate risk management and instances of irrational exuberance,” he told Blockworks. “Architect Partners is optimistic that enduring lessons have been learned from this period, shaping ongoing best practices as we move into the path to maturity.&#8221;



Though the quarter’s number of early-stage financings (seed and Series A) was more than double those seen in the fourth quarter of 2023, the amount of late-stage equity financings rose at a slower rate — by 32% from the prior quarter.



“It’s common for early-stage financing to lead late-stage financing,” Risley added. “In this case, late-stage crypto investors have been adversely impacted by downward reset valuation marks, the outright exit of investors such as Coatue and Tiger, and crypto-focused growth funds like 1RoundTable currently focused on fundraising.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Follow the money</h2>



Venture capital investors have shown a growing interest in using blockchain-based technologies as the backbone for other activities, KPMG executives wrote in the company’s first quarter Venture Pulse report.



The rebound of funding for crypto- and blockchain-related projects has so far led to several companies gaining unicorn status this year.



Polyhedra Network’s $20 million fundraise last month in a round led by Polychain Capital gave it a $1 billion valuation.&nbsp;



Monad Labs <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evm-compatible-layer-1-blockchain-vc-interest">raised $225 million earlier this month</a> as part of a Series A round led by Paradigm — giving it a roughly $2 billion valuation, according to Pitchbook <a href="https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/monad-labs-225m-paradigm-series-a-unicorn#:~:text=Monad%20Labs%2C%20an%20ethereum%20blockchain,billion%2C%20according%20to%20PitchBook%20data.">data</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Asia crypto financial services company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trading-market-making-staking-see-funding">HashKey Group raised $100 million</a> in a January Series A funding round at a $1.2 billion valuation.



Also notably, Eigen Labs’ development studio — responsible for creating Ethereum staking-focused startup EigenLayer — raised $100 million in Series B funding from Andreessen Horowitz in February.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eigenlayer-fundraise-ecosystem-development">EigenLayer’s $100M haul ignites series of adjacent investments</a>



Looking ahead, one subsection of start-ups within crypto that could see more funding this cycle are infrastructure-based projects, according to Pitchbook analyst Robert Le.&nbsp;



“I still think infrastructure is still underdeveloped,” he said, citing prices he’s seen on Base. “There&#8217;s no way that we can say infrastructure [and blockchains are] mature when you pay $5 to sign a transaction.”&nbsp;



He doesn’t expect a lot of funds to go toward layer-1s this time around, but layer-2s could “see a lot of capital go into that space.”



The segment has already seen a decent chunk of funds go towards infrastructure projects, according to ByBit’s institutional report.&nbsp;



“These projects span a wide range of sectors, from hardware wallets to blockchain data providers, offering essential solutions to address various industry challenges and facilitate innovation,” the report said.



Outside of infrastructure, ByBit’s report highlights two emerging trends: projects leveraging AI and those building atop Bitcoin’s blockchain ecosystem.&nbsp;



In February, Exohood Labs — a start-up leveraging <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/artificial-intelligence">AI</a> technology — raised $112 million at a valuation of $1.4 billion. 



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/decentralized-artificial-intelligence-innovation">Funding Wrap: Decentralized AI is all the craze</a>



“Likely the hottest area of investment in the space is [and] will be models that include an overlap of blockchain and AI,” Conor Moore, the global Head of KPMG Private Enterprise, told Blockworks. “Also, companies focused on the Lightning Network are getting attention.”



The rise of decentralized network Bittensor and The Render Network — focused on the blockchain-fueled rendering of 3D graphics —&nbsp; exhibit the possibilities of combining blockchain and AI, ByBit’s report notes.



“These technologies’ rapidly evolving natures, combined with regulatory uncertainties, presents both opportunities and risks,” it adds. “As the AI sector continues to expand and evolve, the synergy between these two areas of technological advancement is expected to fuel further innovation and growth in the cryptocurrency space.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">We’re not back…yet</h2>



But don’t get too optimistic about a bull market yet, Le cautioned. He told Blockworks that he’s not seeing enough data to firmly say the overall market — much less the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/venture-capital">VC</a> landscape — is there yet, though the money is coming back. 



Crunchbase, in a report Thursday, noted that the three biggest rounds of last quarter came in below $300 million.&nbsp;



KPMG’s first quarter Venture Pulse report noted that crypto venture capital funding could see positive momentum through the second quarter of this year.&nbsp;



There have been some sizable raises early in the second quarter too. Most notably, Andreessen Horowitz said it raised $7.2 billion for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/a16z-seven-billion-fundraise">venture funds focused on sectors that include</a> gaming, which the firm previously said could invest in Web3.&nbsp;



While a slew of smaller deals have been announced, the horizon for bigger deals looks bright as start-ups like Citadel-backed Hidden Road Partners look at founding rounds over $100 million, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/citadel-backed-prime-brokerage-in-talks-to-raise-fresh-capital?utm_source=website&amp;utm_medium=share&amp;utm_campaign=twitter">per</a> Bloomberg. The potential raise follows <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evm-compatible-layer-1-blockchain-vc-interest">a $100 million raise for Berachain</a> earlier this month.



“The regulatory landscape is still somewhat of an inhibitor to exits,” KPMG’s Moore said. “And with so many global elections in the next 12 months, things may get more uncertain on that front.”



While due diligence into crypto and blockchain-related investment opportunities can delay a flood of money into the space, KPMG executives said venture capital firms are bolstering staff focused on that.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



“Due diligence involves a lot, including size of total addressable market, technology ownership and protection…and regulatory concerns, to name a few,” Moore said.



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As crypto fundraising sees an uptick, where’s the capital set to go?

Macauley Peterson

The halving of the bitcoin block reward isn’t the only thing happening on Bitcoin block #840,000 in the early hours of April 20. The event will also mark the launch of Runes, a new standard for fungible tokens issued directly on Bitcoin.



Casey Rodarmor, the creator of Ordinals, developed Runes as an alternative to BRC-20, the first bitcoin fungible token system built on Ordinal inscriptions.



Bitcoin was not designed to support such tokens, and BRC-20s only work with help from off-chain indexers that read the data inscribed, a suave way of saying “written to” individual <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/glossary#S">satoshis</a> — rather like shoving a square peg in a round hole.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/op-cat-bitcoin-taproot-wizards">Satoshi-era Bitcoin code idea gets a boost from Taproot Wizards</a>



Like BRC-20s as they are used today, Runes are basically <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/meme-coins">memecoins</a>. Unlike BRC-20, Runes do not depend on the Ordinals mechanism of inscribing, Rodarmor <a href="https://x.com/rodarmor/status/1774613900119699701">said</a> on X.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin">Bitcoin</a>&#8216;s blockchain primarily operates on a system called UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs). Each transaction generates new UTXOs, which can be thought of as individual pieces of bitcoin that have not been spent after being created in a transaction.



All the UTXOs are tracked by the network to ensure that new transactions are legitimate, meaning that the sender has the bitcoin they attempt to send.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-21-million-limit-myth">Bitcoin’s 21 million limit is a boomer myth</a>



&#8220;Runestones&#8221; are special messages stored in Bitcoin transaction outputs — essentially embedded scripts that specify what operations should be performed, like creating, minting or transferring runes.



Each runestone corresponds to a UTXO. One consequence of the fact that balances are stored in UTXOs is they can readily be locked in Hashed Time-Locked Contracts (<a href="https://docs.lightning.engineering/the-lightning-network/multihop-payments/hash-time-lock-contract-htlc">HTLCs</a>) meaning Runes can be easily integrated with the Bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/lightning-network">Lightning Network</a>.



This compatibility is expected to facilitate faster and cheaper transactions, expanding its utility and appeal, potentially giving the runes standard an edge.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ordinals">Ordinals</a> have also been controversial for causing state bloat on the Bitcoin network, although they have been a boon for miners.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ordinals-impact-on-bitcoin-network">Ordinals are driving up Bitcoin fees — but that may be good for the network</a>



The launch block coinciding with the halving was selected arbitrarily by Rodarmor. Unlike a soft fork, there’s <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c6pzo6/halvingnothing_will_change_for_medca">nothing</a> special about blocks after the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a> that make it so.



But with media attention focused on Bitcoin around the quadrennial milestone, it seemed like the perfect time to push runestones on-chain.



“I&#8217;m highly skeptical of ‘serious’ tokens, but runes is without a doubt a ‘serious’ token protocol,” he <a href="https://x.com/rodarmor/status/1774613900119699701">said</a>.



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Bitcoin Runes look to spice up the halving party

Adam Swick

Ahead of the looming Bitcoin halving, miners must soon confront the new reality of a potential substantial drop in profitability. This dynamic has spurred the reevaluation of miners’ relationship with energy, which is their largest input cost. 



With block subsidies being reduced by half, miners can no longer be passive energy consumers. Instead, they must evolve into strategic energy partners that create new forms of value to ensure they thrive amidst the evolving bitcoin mining landscape.



To bolster profit margins, miners have traditionally prioritized low-cost energy sources. The Bitcoin halving will only intensify this pursuit, compelling miners to explore unconventional energy avenues and establish symbiotic relationships with energy producers to increasingly lower or offset their cost of energy. This shift signifies a departure from mere energy consumption towards more active participation in optimizing energy generation and transmission.



Renewable energy emerges as a promising solution for miners grappling with shrinking margins and seeking more cost-effective energy options. Technologies like wind and solar power, once considered niche, now attract considerable attention. While the intermittent nature of renewable sources poses challenges for the average consumer, miners can leverage their ability to quickly power up and down to align energy consumption with intermittent energy supply, reducing costs and stimulating investment in clean energy infrastructure.&nbsp;



Often, sites like hydropower or solar farms produce “stranded energy” that cannot reach end users. However, bitcoin miners can operate around those sites, thereby monetizing the otherwise unused energy resources and converting them into bitcoin. Marathon, for example, operates sites colocated with a <a href="https://ir.mara.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1332/marathon-digital-holdings-continues-international-expansion">hydro dam in Paraguay </a>and a <a href="https://ir.mara.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1347/marathon-digital-holdings-enters-definitive-agreement-to">wind farm in Texas</a>.



Moreover, miners can help to spearhead initiatives that harness overlooked sources of waste energy. Marathon <a href="https://ir.mara.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1330/marathon-digital-holdings-announces-energization-of-its">launched a pilot project</a> aimed at converting methane emissions from landfills into electricity exemplifying this innovative approach. By repurposing waste into a valuable resource, miners not only diminish their environmental impact but also access a cost-effective energy alternative. While many of these pilot projects are in their infancy and don’t yet make huge contributions to the total BTC global hash rate, they do serve as powerful proofs of concept that could scale significantly in the future.&nbsp;



Efforts to optimize the heat generated by mining rigs represents another frontier in the pursuit of low-cost energy. Collaborating with industries that can utilize surplus heat, like <a href="https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/business/shrimpcoin-or-bitcoin-east-wenatchee-miner-marathon-digital-holdings-seeks-space-for-pilot-project/article_cda608d4-6964-11ee-a4ed-f7d26a6a90bd.html">agriculture</a> or <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/11/hestiia-bitcoin-radiator/">domestic heating</a>, enables miners to diversify revenue streams while reducing dependence on conventional energy sources. 



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-clean-energy-etfs">Bitcoin ETFs could actually be good for the environment</a>



The need to curtail energy costs post-halving also necessitates technological ingenuity within the mining sector. From more energy-efficient ASICs to immersion cooling, miners are driving advancements that transcend their own industry, with the potential to also revolutionize global energy consumption. As energy demand continues to reach record highs across the US, this type of innovation stands to benefit not only the mining sector but a much broader swathe of power-intensive industries.&nbsp;



In the face of adversity, miners have the power to reshape the energy sector, paving the way for a greener, more efficient future. By providing a service and becoming valuable energy partners rather than customers, bitcoin miners can contribute not only to the sustainability of Bitcoin but also to a more sustainable world at large.



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<div class="wp-block-post-author-biography">Adam Swick is the Chief Growth Officer at Marathon Digital Holdings. Prior to joining Marathon, he served as a principal at Refinery Ventures, where he was responsible for identifying and recommending business strategies to accelerate the growth of all companies in Refinery’s portfolio. Before Refinery, Swick was the director of strategic finance at Kraken Digital Asset Exchange, where he managed the company’s balance sheet, debt program, investor relations, and all forecasting activities. Prior to Kraken, he founded Swick Capital, a crypto-asset hedge fund, worked at Pritzker Group Venture Capital, and was a consultant at Boston Consulting Group. Swick holds an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and a BS in finance from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.</div>


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This Bitcoin halving cycle, miners need a new energy strategy

Demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has slowed down in the days ahead of the BTC halving.&nbsp;



The fund category collectively tallied net outflows for a fifth straight day on Thursday — albeit only slightly at about $4 million, according to Farside Investors data.



The five-day net outflow total beginning on April 12 amounts to $319 million, reflecting an average of $64 million over the span. That peaked on Wednesday, when $165 million left the 11-fund sector.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Such an outflow streak has happened just once before, with US spot bitcoin ETFs bleeding assets each day from March 18 to March 22. Those outflows were heavier than the latest active streak, totaling $888 million.



The main culprit driving the net outflows is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The higher-priced fund, which converted to an ETF in January, has averaged $116 million of net outflows per day over the last five trading days.



Aside from GBTC, only the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) has contributed any meaningful net outflows, seeing $43 million exit the fund on Wednesday. Others meanwhile have watched their inflows completely stop.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Unique to its competitors, the flow-gathering leader in the space, BlackRock, has kept its daily flows positive.&nbsp;



Nine US spot bitcoin ETFs saw zero inflows on both April 12 and April 15, according to Farside Investors <a href="https://farside.co.uk/?p=997">data</a>. IBIT’s net inflows were $111 million and $73 million on those days, respectively.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-extends-bitcoin-etf-inflows">BlackRock extends bitcoin ETF inflows lead as category demand slows</a>



Still, net inflows into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hit an all-time low level of $18 million on Wednesday, and about $19 million on Thursday. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) edged IBIT in net flows on Thursday, tallying $37 million.&nbsp;



But the world’s largest asset manager is the only bitcoin ETF issuer to see net inflows each day since starting to trade on Jan. 11.&nbsp;



The streak stands at 68 days after Thursday’s positive total, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Speaking of <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24IBIT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$IBIT</a> it has slid into 13th place all time with inflow streak of 67 days.. total net flows now at $15.3b which is second most of all 3000+ ETFs and $5b ahead of #3. <a href="https://t.co/YSGFvn7ZAM">pic.twitter.com/YSGFvn7ZAM</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1780951564200395129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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US spot bitcoin ETFs have welcomed about $12.3 billion of net inflows in just over three months on the market — even with $16.7 billion leaving GBTC.



As for the recent outflows, Balchunas added in a separate X post that it is “totally normal for [an] ETF category to cool off after [a] breathtaking pace like this,” particularly during a bitcoin price dip.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-below-60k-pre-halving-volatility">Bitcoin’s price dropped below $60,000 on Wednesday</a>, just a few days ahead of the bitcoin halving. A roughly quadrennial event, this halving will result in the number of bitcoins produced per block falling from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The halving is expected to occur late Friday ET.



One BTC was worth nearly $65,000 just after 7 a.m. ET Friday — down about 7% from a week ago.



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Bitcoin ETF segment sees record-tying fifth straight day of outflows

Binance has secured a virtual asset securities provider (VASP) license from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.&nbsp;



Binance said that its Dubai arm can now offer services to the retail market, as well as expand services to both qualified and institutional investors.&nbsp;



According to a blog post, Binance FZE will now “introduce new options through its lending and borrowing services,” which will include virtual asset loans.&nbsp;



“Management and investment services will enable users to leverage features such as ETH staking, BNB Vault, and Launchpool to amplify the earning potential of their digital assets,” the post continued.



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/binance-dubai-operational-license">exchange previously held a minimum viable product license</a>, which it was granted back in July 2023.&nbsp;



Bloomberg reported that the firm was granted the license upgrade after former CEO Changpeng Zhao agreed to give up his voting control in the entity. Last year, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/changpeng-zhao">Zhao</a> stepped down as CEO of the firm after the Department of Justice and Binance <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/binance-changpeng-zhao-face-sec-charges">announced a multi-billion dollar settlement deal</a>.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/binance-comments-on-exec-nigeria-detention">Binance ‘deeply disappointed’ about the ongoing detention of an executive in Nigeria</a>



Additionally, Zhao <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/changpeng-zhao-bond-sentencing">pleaded guilty to breaking</a> US anti-money laundering laws. He faces sentencing in a US court later this month.&nbsp;



Current CEO Richard Teng <a href="https://www.binance.com/en/blog/markets/binance-fze-receives-a-vasp-licence-from-dubais-virtual-assets-regulatory-authority-6121983057450016990">said</a> that the new license “conclusively proves our steadfast commitment to revolutionizing the future of finance. Our attainment of this milestone stands as a solid affirmation of our continued drive for transparency, regulatory compliance, and responsible growth in the ever-expanding digital asset sphere.”



Elsewhere in <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/binance">Binance</a>’s realm, the firm converted the assets held in its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) to Circle’s stablecoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/usdc">USDC</a>. The fund is an emergency insurance fund that was established in 2018. Binance, in a blog post, said that it typically sets the fund’s level to $1 billion.&nbsp;



“​​We are transferring 100% of SAFU’s assets to USDC. Making use of a trusted, audited, and transparent stablecoin for SAFU further enhances its reliability and ensures it remains stable at $1 [billion],” Binance <a href="https://www.binance.com/en/blog/ecosystem/update-safu-conversion-to-usdc-270057093957213098">said</a>.&nbsp;



The SAFU fund was formerly made up of bitcoin, Binance’s native BNB, Tether’s USDT stablecoin and TUSD, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240403225008/https://academy.binance.com/en/glossary/secure-asset-fund-for-users">according</a> to a Binance Academy post.&nbsp;



And while there won’t be any new updates in the ongoing back and forth between Binance and Nigeria until Monday, when a detained Binance executive is expected to have a bail hearing, a new <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/technology/binance-crypto-compliance-officer-nigerian-prison.html">report</a> from the New York Times shines more light on the tension between Nigeria and the exchange.&nbsp;



A compliance officer for Binance, Tigran Gambaryan, has been detained — and is now in prison — in Nigeria. He was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nigerian-government-binance-fine">taken into custody back in February</a>, though authorities were careful to note that he had initially not been arrested. However, a Nigerian court sent the Binance executive to jail last week.&nbsp;



Binance <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/binance-employees-detained-nigeria">has repeatedly said</a> that Gambaryan holds no “decision-making power” in the company. According to the report from the Times, this was the second such trip the executive made to the&nbsp; country, though both he and Binance’s regional manager in Africa — Nadeem Anjarwalla, who later escaped and left the country — were not expecting to be detained by authorities.&nbsp;



It’s unclear at this point where discussions stand between Binance and Nigeria. According to the Times, the White House is reportedly engaging with the US Embassy in Nigeria to “resolve the situation.”



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Binance receives license in Dubai, moves SAFU fund to USDC

Though most mining stocks have so far taken a dive this year, industry watchers expect investors to buy back into the strongest such companies after the Bitcoin halving dust settles.



Some of the world’s largest public mining companies have watched their stock prices plummet in recent months.



The stock of mining giant Marathon Digital is down roughly 33% so far this year.&nbsp;



Shares of rivals Hut 8 and Riot Platforms are slightly worse off over that span, down about 35% and 46%, respectively. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/adam-sullivan-core-scientific-bitcoin-halving">Core Scientific’s stock</a> has dropped about 16% since coming out of bankruptcy in January.



Las Vegas-based CleanSpark has been an anomaly, as its stock price has seen a 55% boost in 2024.&nbsp;



These nearly across the board declines come as investors wait to see which miners will be best positioned after the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a> given the upcoming reduced block rewards — from 6.25 BTC and 3.125 — and the impact of that on miner profitability.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mining-firms-prepare-for-bitcoin-halving">The Bitcoin halving is just weeks away — here’s how miners have prepared</a>



Bitcoin halving events, which occur every four years, often trigger “speculative bubbles” that peak about a year after each cycle, said StoneX Digital data scientist David Kroger.



“Investors may have adjusted their expectations and positions based on historical market trends surrounding halving events, including significant price fluctuations and market sentiment shifts,” he added.



Those allocating capital to the space have also had a new way to access BTC since Jan. 11, when the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first US spot bitcoin ETFs.



“You now have a situation where there is an option to get commodity exposure as an institutional investor with the spot bitcoin ETF that mitigates the company risk that you take on when you invest in a bitcoin miner,” Sue Ennis, head of investor relations at Hut 8, said during a Tuesday X space.



While <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-etf-outflows-strike-again">demand for the US spot bitcoin ETFs has slowed</a> recently, the fund category has brought in roughly $12.5 billion of net inflows in just over three months on the market.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Waiting until the dust settles</h2>



Miner stocks have previously underperformed bitcoin going into the halving and outperformed BTC after the event, said Compass Point Research &amp; Trading analyst Joe Flynn.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-mining-stocks-crypto-rally">Why most bitcoin mining stocks are down amid a persistent crypto rally</a> &nbsp;



With spot bitcoin ETFs available, Flynn said miners appear to be trading based on the halving-fuelled hash price declines rather than the BTC exposure they provide.



<a href="https://data.hashrateindex.com/chart/bitcoin-hashprice-index">Hash price</a> takes into account bitcoin price, network difficulty, block subsidy and transaction fees. Measuring how much a miner can expect to earn from a specific quantity of hash rate, the metric is positively correlated to BTC price and negatively linked to fluctuations in bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/mining">mining</a> difficulty.



“Any bounce of hash price off the lows post-halving and we think the stocks react positively,” Flynn told Blockworks. “Based on past cycles, we would expect a period of consolidation of BTC prices before a resumption of an uptrend higher in the second half of 2024 and into 2025.”&nbsp;



Miners holding hefty sums of bitcoin on their balance sheet are likely to benefit from any post-halving BTC price growth from a stock perspective, Flynn added.



Marathon currently leads that category among miners, with 17,381 BTC BTC on its balance sheet as of March 31. Hut 8 and Riot Platforms held 9,102 BTC and 8,490, respectively, at that time.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“But we think investors [will] start to look at fundamentals like EBITDA, [free cash flow] and operating leverage on low power costs post-halving,” he said.



Executives said the public market appears to be struggling to put a proper value on mining companies.&nbsp;



Ennis argued that the market is discounting Hut 8’s managed services and high-performance computing businesses, for example.&nbsp;&nbsp;



As the market matures, she added, investors and institutions are likely to do more due diligence around the varying business models of different miners.



“I do think we are going to see capital and interest come back to this asset class after the halving after the market can see sort of who still has their shirt on and what’s the upside,” Ennis said.



Jeff Hancock, CEO of Coinpass, said he expects the mining stocks to behave similarly to bitcoin’s post-halving price action in previous cycles.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



“It could be some time before these mining stocks recover, unless these firms can reduce their energy and operational costs,” he said. “Some of them may have to wait out the storm until bitcoin prices rise if they don&#8217;t have any additional income streams.”



Bitcoin’s price (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) was at about $63,800 at 12:30 pm ET Thursday — up 4% on the day but down nearly 10% from a week ago.



The public miners could see more immediate share price gains if more bitcoin exchange-traded products are approved in areas such as Asia and the UK, Hancock argued.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-regulation-in-asia">After crypto ETF movement in Hong Kong, other Asia regulators could act</a>&nbsp;



“These institutional spot instruments were already absorbing more bitcoin than was being mined pre-halving,” he told Blockworks. “Post-halving, we could experience an extreme supply shock returning bitcoin’s price to current or higher levels, while also increasing miners stock prices.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Those that are best positioned?</h2>



Galaxy analysts said in a February <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/bitcoin-big-halving-year/">report</a> that between 15% and 20% of the bitcoin network hash rate could come offline after the halving.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-outlook-for-public-miners">Financial trouble for bitcoin miners: A look back, and ahead as the halving looms</a>



CleanSpark executive Chairman Matthew Schultz said during the Tuesday X space that access to capital — allowing companies to deploy the most efficient machine fleets — will be a real differentiator after the halving.&nbsp;



On the balance sheet alone, Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms each have more than $1 billion in combined cash and BTC.&nbsp;



CleanSpark had about $300 million in cash and 5,021 BTC (worth roughly $320 million) available at the end of March.&nbsp;



Companies with big warchests are expected to acquire machines and companies from smaller, less capitalized .&nbsp;



Stronghold Digital has seen its stock price dip 58% in 2024. The company, if deemed an attractive M&amp;A target by an industry peer, would “consider” such a deal, CEO Greg Beard previously told Blockworks.&nbsp;



Argo Blockchain, which has endured a similar share price drop to Stronghold, declined to comment on its post-halving M&amp;A strategy.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/post-bitcoin-halving-miner-mergers-acquisitions">Buyers and sellers: How bitcoin miners are thinking about post-halving M&amp;A</a>



As for miners with potential high upside, Flynn noted that Riot’s cash and BTC represent roughly 50% of the company’s market cap.&nbsp;



Iris Energy and Bitfarms both intend to double their hash rate this year, he said, while infrastructure-minded Core Scientific and Terawulf are “mispriced.”&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The stock prices of Iris Energy and Bitfarms both stand about 30% below where they started the year. Terawulf has fared better, down about 7% year to date.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Flynn added: “I like miners trading at the lowest multiples that have locked in next generation machines — which lowers hash costs — and have the ability to grow to offset initial halving impact.”



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How the Bitcoin halving could impact ailing mining stocks

Crypto trader Avraham Eisenberg was convicted on Thursday in relation to trades he made in October 2022 to extract more than $100 million from Mango Markets, according to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/crypto-trader-convicted-in-110-million-haul-from-mango-markets?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_content=crypto">report</a> from Bloomberg.



28-year-old Eisenberg was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and commodities manipulation. The jury found him guilty of all three counts.



After closing arguments from the government and defense, the jury deliberated Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday before returning with their verdict. The trial lasted one week and took place just a few floors below where FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced last month.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mango-markets-wants-eisenberg-to-pay">Mango Markets wants Eisenberg to pay up, his lawyers say the &#8216;matter was settled&#8217;</a>



Eisenberg was arrested in Puerto Rico in December 2022. Prosecutors say he illegally made off with $110 million after manipulating Mango Market futures contracts and pumping the price of swaps by 1,000%. He then borrowed against the contracts and boarded a flight from Puerto Rico to Israel. 



The government says he was fleeing because he committed a crime, but <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/avraham-eisenberg">Eisenberg</a>’s defense team claims he was running after receiving numerous threats following his trades. 



“The more he pumped, the more he could steal,” government attorneys said Wednesday during their closing arguments. “It is clear as day the defendant knew” he was committing crimes, the prosecution added.&nbsp;



The defense’s case focused on the structure of decentralized exchange <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/mango-markets">Mango Markets</a>, which, Eisenberg’s team says, allowed for the trades to take place. 



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/avi-eisenberg-confined-to-jail">DeFi trader Avi Eisenberg is stuck in US custody. Here’s how he got there.</a>



Eisenberg employed a “successful, legal trading strategy,” defense attorney Brian Klein told the jury Wednesday.&nbsp;



His client was never asked to prove his identity, maintain collateral on the platform or complete a credit check, Klein said.&nbsp;



In the government’s rebuttal, assistant US attorney Thomas Burnett said that the defense was trying to distract from the government’s claims.&nbsp;



“The data and documents show he was borrowing. You should believe your own eyes,” he told the court.



This is a developing story.



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Crypto trader convicted in $110M Mango Markets fraud trial: Bloomberg

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Decision time in Mango trial&nbsp;</h2>



Closing arguments in Avraham “Avi” Eisenberg’s criminal fraud trial wrapped yesterday. The jury was given the case around 3:30 pm ET and called it a night after an hour of deliberations. They will resume this morning and a verdict is expected this afternoon.&nbsp;



Prosecutors say the 28-year-old crypto trader illegally manipulated markets when he made off with $110 million in October 2022 following a series of trades on DeFi trading platform Mango Markets. Eisenberg has been charged with commodities fraud, commodities manipulation and wire fraud.&nbsp;



“The more he pumped, the more he could steal,” government attorneys said Wednesday during their closing arguments. “It is clear as day the defendant knew” he was committing crimes, the prosecution added.&nbsp;



His defense team said this week that it’s all a big misunderstanding. Eisenberg just made some good trades. Plus, he had $13 million on the line.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/avi-eisenberg-committed-fraud">Mango Markets exploiter Avi Eisenberg committed fraud, Feds say</a>



Eisenberg was arrested in Puerto Rico in December 2022. Prosecutors say he manipulated Mango Market futures contracts and pumped the price of swaps by 1,300%. He then borrowed against the contracts and boarded a flight from Puerto Rico to Israel.&nbsp;



The defense denies none of this; they just claim that it was all legal. It’s not Eisenberg’s fault he wasn’t required to submit personal information or that Mango didn’t run a credit check. That’s just how these wild crypto markets work, they said.&nbsp;



The government says he was fleeing because he committed a crime — his internet search history in the days and before and after the trades shows he was researching “fraud” and “statute of limitations on market manipulation” — but Eisenberg’s defense team claims he was running after receiving numerous threats following his trades.&nbsp;



Plus, defense attorney Brian Klein said yesterday, Eisenberg wouldn’t have continued to search these terms if he’d actually thought he did something wrong. I’d beg to differ, but maybe the jury feels differently.&nbsp;



“None of us want to be judged on our web searches,” Klein said. “None of us.”&nbsp;



Presiding Judge Arun Subramanian, one of the newer judges at SDNY — appointed in 2023 — is tasked with overseeing the landmark case. It’s the first time ever the question of whether someone manipulated crypto markets will be posed to a US jury.&nbsp;



There’s no question that lax <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/kyc">KYC</a> rules aided Eisenberg in his trades. He executed some under the identity of a Ukrainian woman after buying her login information, the government says.&nbsp;



Also, before you get too excited about those “commodity” charges, the Department of Justice isn’t actually claiming MNGO is a commodity; they avoided classifying the token altogether. The DOJ did say that USDC is a commodity and the “perpetuals” in question are “swaps” to justify the charges, though.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The SEC’s case against Eisenberg, which is on hold until these criminal proceedings wrap, specifically calls MNGO a “crypto asset security” given its status as an “investment contract.”&nbsp;



The semantics around classification, at this point, are the least of Eisenberg’s worries, but it is something to watch out for if the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a> case proceeds. (If Eisenberg is found guilty of criminal charges, the civil suits might get dropped.)&nbsp;



Keep an eye on Crypto Twitter today. The jury was instructed to resume deliberations promptly at 9 am this morning. They’ve also been told they can work through lunch.&nbsp;



Subramanian, unlike Lewis Kaplan who oversaw SBF’s criminal trial, allows cell phones in the courtroom, so news when the verdict drops will travel fast.&nbsp;&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Data Center</h2>



<ul>
<li>Mango Markets has 94,000 SOL ($12.7 million) <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/mango-markets#information">staked</a> in the app, most of it added months after the Eisenberg incident.</li>



<li>Growth in ETH supply <a href="https://www.validatorqueue.com/">staked</a> has slowed considerably since March, sitting around 26%.</li>



<li>Ethena’s USDe <a href="https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/solvency">supply</a> has topped out at $2.37 billion for now, after rocketing from $200 million to $2 billion in two months.</li>



<li>Farcaster daily users are <a href="https://dune.com/pixelhack/farcaster">holding</a> strong at more than 40,000, down only around 15% since record highs.</li>



<li>Mantle’s on-chain <a href="https://defillama.com/treasuries">treasury</a> (excluding own tokens) is now almost as big as the Ethereum Foundation’s: $870 million to $933 million.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rocky path ahead?</h2>



As someone who started her career reporting on Wall Street, I’m particularly intrigued by the upcoming <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a>.&nbsp;



Not just because it’s my first time getting to cover it through a crypto lens and not looking from the outside in, but also because of the way Wall Street and institutions are now interacting with crypto, specifically bitcoin.&nbsp;



With that said, let’s talk about the publicly traded miners. <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/mining">Mining</a> as a whole is going to be vulnerable post-halving for obvious reasons, but we’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jpmorgan-bitcoin-halving-publicly-traded-miners">previously reported that Wall Street analysts</a> think that the publicly traded group could benefit from the quadrennial event. 



However, we’re just days out, and there’s a lot of red when looking at the miners as a group. Marathon’s down nearly 17% in the past five days, Riot’s shed 18%, Hut 8’s down 8%, though CleanSpark’s only down 3%.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-most-promising-least-dramatic-halving">Bitcoin’s most promising, least dramatic halving is almost here</a>



In total, the aggregate market cap dropped 28% as of April 15, according to data from JPMorgan. The market cap now sits at around $14.2 billion.



For some analysts on Wall Street, the question is simple: Is this a buying opportunity? For Bernstein analysts, it’s an opportunity to buy stocks such as Riot and CleanSpark.&nbsp;



As we’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-price-implications">reported previously</a>, it’s hard to know what’s going to happen post-halving for two reasons. First, this is only the fourth such event in Bitcoin’s history, so we don’t have a lot of historical data to use. Second, this is a totally different environment for Bitcoin than we’ve seen in the past.&nbsp;



Historically, yes, bitcoin’s gone on to carve out new all-time highs in the months post-halving, and there’s no reason to think it couldn’t hit six figures by the end of the year. Immediately after the event, bitcoin could undergo pressure dropping to the mid-$50,000 or even around $40,000.&nbsp;



And stocks of the bitcoin miners — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mining-firms-prepare-for-bitcoin-halving">despite their preparation</a> — could also face headwinds.



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Putting the Fi in GameFi</h2>



The metaverse may go the way of the enterprise blockchain — a forgotten fad — but GameFi is at least getting another run.



GameFi is a catch-all term for games with some sort of crypto or blockchain integration, through which players can collect and trade NFTs tied to in-game assets, including heroes and items.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While not the first, Vietnamese studio Sky Mavis largely popularized the NFT format with Axie Infinity. The game’s smart contracts are still some of the most active in the space.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sui-playtron-handheld-web3-gaming-device">Web3 Watch: Sui unveils handheld Web3 gaming device</a>



Business and farming simulators, card battle games and tower defense apps are also common across the major gaming ecosystems with their own layer-1s: Sky Mavis’ Ronin and Gala Games’ Gala Smart Chain, as well as Merit Circle’s Avalanche subnet BEAM.



Ronin, however, is gathering its own on-chain economy. The network seems to have largely rebounded since the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/the-ronin-hacker-made-off-with-625m-of-crypto-but-cashing-out-isnt-so-easy">debilitating $625 million raid</a> on its token bridge in early 2022. North Korea-linked hackers stole digital assets backing bridged tokens on Ronin, undermining in-game economies — particularly Axie Infinity’s — with the incident going unnoticed for six days.



Sky Mavis later moved to <a href="https://www.techinasia.com/sky-mavis-scales-150m-funding-reimbursing-users">make</a> users whole. At the time of the heist, monthly active addresses on Ronin had already fallen to 2.9 million from a peak of 5.9 million in peak bull market, in November 2021. Active addresses would drop another 65% over the next three months, and by last October, Ronin was seeing only 100,000 monthly active addresses.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/QzWqueflqFP4i-P8VCDPRzYo7cVSKn5EQ4aAFbFv9Q-371QjGApmK6n9Q39AR7d5gjCMhxvpvl0eOjUg4Esw5QQ5qeO04hFvGRav3Q75SrYMl70SGnpoa76jtYkdTfNCn4TqaxqvdDPTfQBe38nOu8c" alt=""/></figure>



Now, there&#8217;s 3.2 million, <a href="https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/ronin">per</a> Token Terminal, and while it’s difficult to say how many represent unique individuals, it’s hard to argue with that growth. The number of transactions on the network hit 51.4 million last month, its highest point since the top of the last bull market.&nbsp;



Axie-related smart contracts are still driving much of the activity, but there are now five other games interacting with Ronin, including Pixels, and eventually a card battle game set in the popular Ragnarok universe. There’s also an NFT marketplace (Mavis Market) native to the network, and a budding decentralized exchange (Katana) is seeing anywhere from $60 million <a href="https://katana-analytics.roninchain.com/home">volume</a> to $4 million per day this year.



You wouldn’t think so, but Ronin is currently the ninth on monthly active user leaderboards, only just behind Uniswap and Base and ahead of TON, Optimism and Aptos.&nbsp;



— David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Works</h2>



<ul>
<li>WorldCoin plans to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/worldcoin-teases-world-chain-layer-2">launch its own layer-2</a>, dubbed World Chain, this summer.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Ivy League college students are dropping out to launch their crypto careers, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/how-to-get-a-job-in-crypto-bitcoin-price-spike-draws-young-startup-founders?utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter">reports</a>.</li>



<li>This halving could be the least dramatic one yet, according to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-most-promising-least-dramatic-halving">on-chain activity</a>.</li>



<li>TSMC expects a Q2 sales bump thanks to major demand for AI chips, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-set-report-5-rise-first-quarter-profit-strong-ai-chip-demand-2024-04-18/">reports</a>.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Binance received a full crypto license from Dubai after former CEO Changpeng Zhao forfeited voting control, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/binance-close-to-getting-dubai-vasp-license-after-cz-deal-bnb?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_content=crypto">reports</a>.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Morning Riff</h2>



What does crypto sound like?



If Hans Zimmer’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNRGQMdd9gU">new</a> “theme” for Tron is any indication, it’s a three-minute soundtrack clip from a forgettable Michael Bay movie. Or some vaguely sci-fi video game intro screen. Here’s my review: meh.&nbsp;



It’s not Zimmer’s best work by any means —&nbsp;that obviously is the Interstellar score —&nbsp;but the song, announced yesterday by Tron’s Justin Sun, certainly achieves the goal of creating an association between crypto and an independently noteworthy source.&nbsp;



In this case, an Oscar-winning composer. Or at least his studio, which, <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2022/02/the-ugly-truth-of-how-movie-scores-are-made">according</a> to Vanity Fair, employs dozens of so-called “Zimlings” to operate a compositional megafactory.&nbsp;



You gotta wonder how much TRX was shoveled into the great crypto furnace to pay for this one. One assumes Zimmer’s music-writing empire was fed dollars instead of crypto, but who knows?&nbsp;



Either way, I wouldn’t put this one in your Spotify inspiration playlist.



— Michael McSweeney



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Empire Newsletter: Decision time in Mango Markets trial

Andrew M. Bailey

Bradley Rettler

Craig Warmke

The Bitcoin halving is imminent.&nbsp;



But even if you know what it is, you may not know why it is.&nbsp;



In our view, the halving exists to make bitcoin interesting — and interesting things attract attention. Bitcoin’s pseudonymous inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto, could have chosen a boring issuance schedule. Instead, he imbued bitcoin with a seasonal fireworks display, commanding attention from an increasingly wide and diverse group of bitcoin users.



Bitcoin famously has a supply cap of 21 million, 1.3 million of which remain unminted.&nbsp;The network will mint these coins through the year 2140 in the same way bitcoins have always been minted.&nbsp;



Satoshi designed the system himself to reward miners who publish new blocks. He could have designed those rewards to hold steady over time with a constant amount per block, say 10. Or he might have designed the rewards to decrease steadily at a constant rate. 



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-inflation-and-issuance-schedule">Why is 2140 the end of bitcoin inflation?</a>



Satoshi instead chose halvings. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward suddenly drops by half. The first 210,000 blocks each yielded 50 new bitcoin to the miner; the next 210,000 blocks yielded 25; and so on. Tomorrow, and for the next four years, each block will yield 3.125 bitcoin.&nbsp;



By their very nature, halvings bring an economic shock, especially to miners. Block 840,0001 will appear roughly ten minutes after block 840,000. But the miner of block 840,000 will earn $400,000 worth of new bitcoin, while the miner of block 840,001 will earn only $200,000 worth of bitcoin — at today’s prices, anyway.



Bitcoin’s volatility owes, in part, to its halving schedule. If demand remains relatively constant despite a sudden drop in newly available bitcoin, bitcoin’s price will likely increase. At least, that’s what has happened historically.&nbsp;



The dollar price of bitcoin increased 5,000% between the first and second halving, from $12.53 in November 2012 to $640 in July 2016; 1,300% between the second and third halving, from $640 in July 2016 to $9,000 in May 2020; and 700% between the third and fourth halving, from $9,000 in May 2020 to $70,000 in April 2024. Of course, bitcoin’s price has also crashed many times during those periods. Like the weather, demand is a fickle thing.&nbsp;



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-most-promising-least-dramatic-halving">Bitcoin’s most promising, least dramatic halving is almost here</a>



Halvings also spark discussions about bitcoin’s price volatility in the short term — and price trajectory in the long term. Each halving brings up the same inevitable question, especially considering past wild post-halving price swings: What will we see this time? For weeks now, TV networks have been interviewing CEOs and bitcoin thought leaders about the potential impact that the halving might have on bitcoin’s price.



We think Satoshi anticipated the potential for this kind of frenzy, and deliberately chose the four-year halving cycle to attract attention to bitcoin.&nbsp;



Satoshi was familiar with the idea of global spectacles that happen every four years. The World Cup and the Olympics garner massive attention — especially from people who otherwise rarely watch sports! Would you watch the Olympics annually? Monthly? Not likely. These events garner interest partly because of their rarity. The interval allows for hype, and interest, to build. Networks run specials on the athletes expected to make a splash. Magazines run photo spreads. And when the opening ceremonies finally broadcast, three billion people watch worldwide.



Satoshi was a master promoter. He designed logos, built chat forums and schemed with users on those forums about how to stir up interest in bitcoin. He also designed a system to capture interest by being interesting.&nbsp;



Compare bitcoin to gold. Gold has a global brand earned over millennia. But when’s the last time gold mining caught major headlines? If we mined an asteroid for gold or discovered that we had mined every last nugget — that would capture attention. As things stand, however, gold mining is steady, predictable and unremarkable. Bitcoin is predictable, too. Yet it is predictably unsteady, especially with halvings thrown in, and thus remarkable.&nbsp;



Bitcoin is much younger than gold, with just 15 years since its creation. Yet bitcoin’s quadrennial halving events and corresponding price fluctuations garner headlines worldwide. Interest has snowballed with every halving, as have new users. That’s the goal.



Bitcoin halvings are spectacles, by design. And the design seems to be working. After all, it brought you to this article.



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The authors are co-authors of the forthcoming academic book Resistance Money: A Philosophical Case for Bitcoin (Routledge Press).



‍Andrew M. Bailey is an interdisciplinary teacher and scholar whose work spans philosophy, politics, and economics. He is Associate Professor of Humanities at Yale-NUS College (Singapore).



Bradley Rettler is Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Wyoming, and has published peer-reviewed academic articles on metaphysics, philosophy of religion, epistemology, and cryptocurrency



Craig Warmke researches money at the intersection of philosophy, economics, and computer science. He is Associate Professor of Philosophy at Northern Illinois University.



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