Bitcoin Pro

Casey Wagner

It’s been weeks of mixed messages from the White House. Even as the administration flip-flops on tariff policies, one thing has remained consistent: Investors are acting on the slightest hint of good news.&nbsp;



Yesterday afternoon I wrote that markets were trading on a dream. I was talking about the rally we saw after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said in a private meeting that the trade war with China is “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/global-trade-us-china-deal">unsustainable</a>.”



That was nothing compared to the after-hours surge we saw later on Tuesday.&nbsp;



The main catalyst was a comment from President Trump. He told reporters yesterday afternoon that he has “no intention” of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump added that he “never” planned on removing Powell despite previously posting that the Chair’s “termination cannot come fast enough.”&nbsp;



Markets got a second boost when Elon Musk said on Tesla’s Q1 earnings call that he’d be stepping back from his DOGE duties next month. The comment was enough to distract investors from Tesla’s first quarter miss and 71% decline in net income. Shares were up almost 7% midday Wednesday.&nbsp;



Stocks and the dollar rose, while Treasury yields retreated. It’s further proof that the market doesn’t need to see any tangible policy changes to rally.&nbsp;



US indexes were still in the green Wednesday, but the rally was fading. The S&amp;P 500 was trading 2% higher at 2:15 pm ET, while the Nasdaq Composite had gained 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up around 600 points, although earlier in the session it had added as many as 1,100 points.&nbsp;



The intraday pullback followed more remarks from Bessent, this time in a public appearance. The Treasury Secretary spoke at an IIF event Wednesday morning, saying that China “is in need of rebalancing.” He did not, however, reassure investors that the White House will be walking back its levies on the country — a comment investors would have appreciated.&nbsp;



“China’s current economic model is built on exporting its way out of its economic troubles,” Bessent said. “It’s an unsustainable model that is not only harming China but the entire world.”&nbsp;&nbsp;



Trump yesterday told reporters that tariffs on Chinese imports will “come down,” but “won’t be zero.” As of Wednesday afternoon, the White House had not commented further on the situation or the status of any negotiations.&nbsp;



The Wall Street Journal, however, just <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/white-house-considers-slashing-china-tariffs-to-de-escalate-trade-war-6f875d69">reported</a> that China tariffs could land around 50% to 65%, citing unnamed senior officials. This would be less than half of the current level.&nbsp;



Confirmation on this would no doubt send stocks higher. In the meantime, at least Trump has taken firing Powell off the table.&nbsp;



We’ll share more updates tomorrow, when the tariff situation undoubtedly will be completely different.&nbsp;



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Donald Trump

US stocks retreat from session highs as China trade deal remains uncertain

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">subscribe</a>.



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A day after I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/immutable-teases-potential-ubisoft-collab">reported</a> that Immutable’s about to drop some news about its game with Ubisoft, a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ubisoft-and-immutable-unveil-new-chapter-of-multi-million-player-franchise-might--magic-fates-302435428.html">press release</a> has been published announcing the upcoming game. 



The game will be an installment in the fantasy Might and Magic franchise called Might &amp; Magic: Fates. It’ll be a trading card game (TCG), which also confirms what I reported yesterday.



Might and Magic is a series of retro roleplay games (RPGs) from New World Computing and 3DO that first released all the way back in 1986. Ubisoft <a href="https://www.gamesindustry.biz/namco-ubisoft-and-ms-carve-up-3do-assets">bought</a> the rights to Might and Magic for $1.3 million in 2003 when 3DO filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Over a dozen Might and Magic games have been released since the 80s, including official spinoff titles.



TCGs have been the most obvious genre for crypto game developers to build in because each card can be an NFT. Players can buy and collect digital cards as well as frames or special card backs for their decks.&nbsp;



Trading card games require fewer players to match up individuals in 1v1 matches (as opposed to massive battle royale games or team games, which can have much longer queue times). TCGs also don’t require players to be geographically close to each other for optimal gameplay, like fast-paced RPGs or shooters do.



TCGs can also make money — and can be made for less money than extensive 3D worlds like <a href="https://www.thegamer.com/difference-between-mmos-mmorpgs-online-multiplayer/">MMORPGs</a> or shooter games. Ad firm Udonis <a href="https://www.blog.udonis.co/mobile-marketing/mobile-games/hearthstone-player-count#h2-2">estimates</a> that Blizzard’s Hearthstone — arguably the most well-known TCG — has made over $900 million in total game revenue and makes millions of dollars per month (Key Banc Capital Markets <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-07/hasbro-s-free-magic-the-gathering-arena-official-launch-is-2019">said</a> that number was $600 million annually in 2019).&nbsp;



Immutable reportedly made <a href="https://crypto.news/blockchain-game-developer-immutable-says-2024-outlook-improved-after-reporting-50m-loss/#:~:text=Following%20a%20%2450%20million%20loss,with%20revenue%20exceeding%20%24110%20million.">$110 million</a> in 2024.



But the TCG market is also competitive, even in crypto, with Axie Infinity, Gods Unchained, Splinterlands, Parallel, and other titles already playable.



Immutable’s VP of Business Development Andrew Sorokovsky said in a <a href="https://x.com/soro/status/1915030852926583295">post</a> the Might and Magic TCG will use Immutable’s zkEVM chain, which also confirmed my reporting from Tuesday.&nbsp;



The press release states that there will be “hundreds” of cards featuring different creatures and characters.&nbsp;



Immutable cofounder Robbie Ferguson <a href="https://x.com/0xferg/status/1915030006889353415">posted</a> a minute-long teaser cinematic promoting the upcoming game, which features an armored skeleton brought to life with green magic.&nbsp;



More gameplay footage as well as preregistrations are expected “in the coming months.”  Ubisoft is also publishing a noncrypto prequel installment in the Might and Magic series, called Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era, that is <a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/3105440/Heroes_of_Might_and_Magic_Olden_Era/#:~:text=Might%20&amp;%20Magic%C2%AE-,Release%20Date:%20Q2%202025,English%20and%2010%20more">expected</a> to launch sometime this year.



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Gaming

Might and Magic makes crypto comeback as TCG from Ubisoft, Immutable

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">subscribe</a>.



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Restaking is evolving. What started as an Ethereum-native capital efficiency play is now transforming into a cross-chain economic coordination layer that spans protocols, assets and use cases.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/symbiotic">Symbiotic</a> announced today a $29 million Series A, led by <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/Pantera">Pantera Capital</a>, to launch its Universal Staking Framework. The move goes toward supporting any asset securing any network — L1 or L2, modular or integrated. Symbiotic is active on <a href="https://www.binance.com/en-JP/square/post/2024-08-16-symbiotic-announces-integration-of-14-networks-into-shared-security-framework-12233736521281">14 networks</a>, a number expected to more than double in the coming months, providing programmable slashing, cross-chain collateral composition and new financial primitives like staking-backed insurance and “structured risk products.”



“This isn’t a pivot, it&#8217;s an expansion — a natural progression of the vision we started with,” Symbiotic co-founder Misha Putiatin told Blockworks. “From the outset, we focused on building a flexible coordination layer that supports a wide range of use cases.”



While <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/eigenlayer">EigenLayer</a> remains Ethereum-centric, with restaking built primarily via ETH-native validators and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/liquid-staking">liquid staking</a> tokens (LSTs), Symbiotic expands the model across networks and collateral types — enabling non-EVM assets and modular AVSs to coordinate security under a unified staking framework.



Of course, EigenLayer isn’t standing still. Just last week, Eigen Labs <a href="https://x.com/eigenlayer/status/1912885738116620670">activated</a> slashing on mainnet — the final piece of its original roadmap. In terms of scale, it’s way out in front. It even <a href="https://x.com/molinaxis/status/1914740005978677677">launched</a> its own marketing agency. More than 190 AVSs (actively validated services) are now building on EigenLayer, including heavyweights like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/LayerZero">LayerZero</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/infura">Infura</a>. With slashing now live, these services can enforce performance guarantees backed by economic penalties.



EigenLayer founder Sreeram Kannan called it “the next phase in our mission to transform Ethereum’s trust into a programmable primitive.”



As EigenLayer cements its role as Ethereum’s trust marketplace, other players are extending the restaking model in novel directions. Puffer Finance, for example, <a href="https://x.com/puffer_finance/status/1914405809188184399">came out</a> earlier this week with staking and restaking vaults for institutions. Designed for asset managers, DAOs and custodians, Puffer’s platform combines ETH staking with EigenLayer AVS restaking together within a compliance-ready framework. Features include validator permissioning, withdrawal policies and modular configuration of restaking exposure.



Meanwhile, <a href="https://x.com/moremarketsxyz/status/1899384972404023394">MoreMarkets</a> — formerly Nuffle Labs — is using restaking infrastructure to unlock utility for previously siloed assets like <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/xrp">XRP</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/ada">ADA</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/doge">DOGE</a>. By integrating with <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/wormhole">Wormhole</a> and AVS-layer attestations, MoreMarkets lets users stake or provide liquidity directly from their origin chain.



“Users shouldn’t be facing a bridging UI,” MoreMarkets CEO Altan Tutar told Blockworks. “They should just click once — from wherever they are — and start earning.”



Together, these developments mark a shift in how staking is conceived and deployed. It&#8217;s no longer just a consensus mechanism, but a programmable economic substrate. EigenLayer proved that trust could be abstracted. Symbiotic is showing that it can be recomposed. And protocols like Puffer and MoreMarkets are building the interfaces to bring it to institutions and long-tail assets.



Restaking isn’t just maturing, it’s mutating.



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0xResearch Newsletter

Restaking goes ‘universal’

David Canellis

Pete Rizzo

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">subscribe</a>. 



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The final known Satoshi email was sent to Mike Hearn, one of the earliest Bitcoin contributors and former Google engineer, in April 2011. 



By that point, Bitcoin had been running for 840 days, or less than two and a half years. Satoshi previously said they had been working on Bitcoin’s design since 2007 — so at most they were active in Bitcoin development for about four years.



Hearn, who has since stepped back from Bitcoin, had kept up <a href="https://plan99.net/~mike/satoshi-emails/thread5.html">emails</a> with Satoshi even after their <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/satoshi-nakamoto-last-online">final post</a> on BitcoinTalk in December 2010.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcZZVZwIwBSiK-A_RKyiyuhF1-ajEFlU7j9LEGzTBhYRwpb_jY63f8u3k1DCRz0g0yutHA4qo-fRdigBu4_4sFk-iYvJJONow9pgzgy6OeVg9rbPJvSFH4HEDpaL6fLi3RzxPZtgw?key=JL_yRvqxyiwt9MZUlz_5eEaa" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Hearn hosts a set of Satoshi emails on his personal <a href="https://plan99.net/~mike/">website</a></figcaption></figure>



“Satoshi did not leave the community because of Gavin&#8217;s CIA visit. He had already stopped posting publicly by the end of 2010 but was willing to continue emailing back and forth with me for months after,” Hearn <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6t2ci2/never_before_seen_mike_hearn_satoshi_nakamoto/">wrote</a> on Reddit in 2017. “I realised this situation probably wouldn&#8217;t last which is why I kept peppering him with technical questions.”



Bitcoin’s creator had recently encouraged other community members to take over, a move that led to Gavin Andresen stepping up as lead maintainer. Alongside Hearn, Andresen would go on to <a href="https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_XT#:~:text=After%20Andresen's%20resignation%20from%20the,be%20implemented%20in%20Bitcoin%20Core.">organize</a> the forking of Bitcoin Core for BitcoinXT, which featured an increased block size limit that would also get larger every two years.&nbsp;



It was Bitcoin’s first great civil war, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/aug/17/bitcoin-xt-alternative-cryptocurrency-chief-scientist">portrayed</a> by mainstream media. Hearn had <a href="https://blog.plan99.net/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7">sold</a> all his bitcoin by January 2016, when coins were worth under $500, and eventually moved on to build enterprise distributed ledger Corda as R3’s lead platform engineer, a position he <a href="https://www.ledgerinsights.com/lead-engineer-mike-hearn-departs-enterprise-blockchain-firm-r3/">left</a> in 2021.



“Can cryptocurrency work? Sure, I do believe that. It does need extensive competition between different coins, which we now have,” Hearn <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/kc2k3h/comment/gforyhb/">wrote</a> in late 2020. “Unfortunately when it comes to currencies, competition works against gaining critical mass and none of them have managed to get the same levels of awareness Bitcoin did.”



“I did stoically plug away at it for many years, but fundamentally my answers to how you can build a global consensus network in which people peacefully co-exist looks like the Bitcoin Foundation or the Corda Network, and that was far too suit-wearing to ever be accepted by the cryptocurrency community.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXckpVhTXFhCobS35P4eANlFbWMH06ySXCOOfH1aa9r-WqOmUfDqdND_Ue5oeVea98BAXm49sTvUZUpxie6mq7wQ02wRxeBKN-8oQnwAeO_iQk6sFjzxYl7Ni83FszzRSUzX-XGwNg?key=JL_yRvqxyiwt9MZUlz_5eEaa" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Satoshi had foreshadowed his leaving five months earlier on BitcoinTalk</figcaption></figure>



Certainly, we’ve all mused enough over the reasons for Satoshi’s departure. WikiLeaks “kicking the hornet’s nest” could be <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2216.msg29280#msg29280">one</a>. Andresen’s <a href="https://thenextweb.com/news/satoshi-nakamoto-left-bitcoin-because-of-the-cia-theory-cryptocurrency">visit to the CIA</a> could be too — Satoshi sent his last email to Hearn shortly after Andresen disclosed that he’d accepted the agency’s invite.&nbsp;



And perhaps, Satoshi really did have other balls in the air. He’d used similar language 11 months earlier, when he told Martti Malmi via <a href="https://mmalmi.github.io/satoshi/">email</a> that he’d “been busy with other things for the last month and a half” to explain his absence.&nbsp;



Maybe, Satoshi knew there was going to be tension between the cypherpunks, with their energetic anarchism, and the suits, with their rules and business hierarchies, and simply thought it easier to go return some video tapes instead. Who could blame them?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rizzo, The Bitcoin Historian&#8217;s view</h2>



There history goes again, always rhyming. As David notes, the tensions in the community that Satoshi left may be alive and well, but then again, so is the inherent demand for Bitcoin, with the “<a href="https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/quotes/bitcoin-economics/">positive feedback loop</a>” he imagined working at a geo-political scale. Yesterday, shockwaves were sent across the industry when it was revealed SoftBank, Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether are <a href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-for-corporations/softbank-tether-cantor-fitzgerald-prepare-3b-public-bitcoin-treasury-vehicle">reportedly</a> preparing to funnel bitcoin worth $3 billion into a new firm running the Strategy playbook, amassing capital to stockpile BTC.



The numbers alone are staggering. Could we have another Strategy? Another multi-billion company racing, alongside the ETFs, to capture 500,000 or more Bitcoin?  Certainly, the <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250423962305/en/Tether-SoftBank-Group-and-Jack-Mallers-Launch-Twenty-One-a-Bitcoin-native-Company-Through-a-Business-Combination-With-Cantor-Equity-Partners">players</a> involved are enough to make the suggestion plausible. The only question that remains is how much bitcoin can they buy? Regardless, it’s another example of how Satoshi’s <a href="https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/quotes/bitcoin-economics/">own stash</a> — and his foresight — only seem more impressive with time.



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Bitcoin

What Bitcoin’s Satoshi and Patrick Bateman have in common

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Since last week, Base’s Jesse Pollak has been very busy posting about content coins and prompting folks in his replies to coin everything, though that’s come with some mixed results.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">&gt; post pic of random girl from dating app &gt; someone launches a shitter &gt; get mad bc guy screenshotted first and is *checks notes* &quot;a creator&quot; and this is &quot;stealing&quot; &gt; guy tokenizes girl, but with picture &gt; directly links &gt; 5k mcap what in the fuck are we doing here man <a href="https://t.co/vwiXKGqUbm">pic.twitter.com/vwiXKGqUbm</a>&mdash; mert | helius.dev (@0xMert_) <a href="https://twitter.com/0xMert_/status/1914728220697493584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 22, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Before we get into Pollak’s bullish thought process, I asked him about the now-deleted post promoting an image of a girl from Hinge being coined. The image was a screenshot taken from the dating site, and it’s unclear if the girl consented to the image being not only used on social media but also being put onchain. Even if consent was given, however, it’s against Hinge’s <a href="https://hinge.co/terms">terms of service.</a>&nbsp;



“I want to clearly apologize for this post. I shouldn’t have posted it or amplified it. I heard the feedback loud and clear, which is why I quickly apologized and deleted the post,” he explained.&nbsp;



For Pollak, this process has required a learning curve in real time. He told me the goal was to experiment in public and lead by example, hence Base’s launch of “<a href="https://zora.co/coin/base:0xd769d56f479e9e72a77bb1523e866a33098feec5">Base is for everyone</a>” last week. He added that he was prepared for some backlash, but he&#8217;s hyper-focused on bringing a billion folks onchain, which will require some trial and error.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



“That said, in retrospect, one thing I would have done differently is added more context to the Base handle initial post. I had been talking about this for a few weeks on my personal handle, and we included a disclaimer on the Zora post itself, but it wasn’t enough. We could have done more here,” he said.



While oversaturation is a concern I’ve heard from folks around the industry, Pollak dismissed it.&nbsp;



“The truth is that you want basically infinite content, because that lets you sort and filter through to find the world-class stuff,” he said. “One of the reasons I am continually coining content is to lead by example here. If this is a normal, everyday thing, then the expectations around each individual piece of content are also normalized.”



As for the great debate of content coins vs. memecoins, Pollak says that the expectations for memecoins are centered around the overall value and curating a community. On the other hand, “people should have no expectations around the value or utility of any single content coin,” in Pollak’s opinion.&nbsp;



“A content coin is a singular piece of content, and the market is free to decide on the value of that content,” he added, citing a bowl of granola he <a href="https://zora.co/coin/base:0x395d485b80bc367830bf7458ee0bf12b23ec387b?referrer=0x849151d7d0bf1f34b70d5cad5149d28cc2308bf1">coined</a> that has a current value of $3,500.&nbsp;



“I’m not doing anything to create a community around this piece of content. I’m not promoting it over the long term, I’m not making a Telegram group, and I’m not turning my photo of granola into a project with ongoing support. I’m just coining a photo of my granola, and then moving on to something else.”



Pollak dismissed the criticism around Base leaning into Zora, noting that Base has been “continually posting on Zora for two years.”&nbsp; “No one from the Zora team knew about the ‘Base is for everyone’ post in advance, and this was not a coordinated marketing effort,” he explained.



There were some other tidbits from Pollak that I wanted to cover.



Specifically, I wanted to hone in on the potential for content coins to generate more value for Base, and the idea that maybe this is Base’s solution to pump.fun, the infamous Solana memecoin platform.&nbsp;



“I have a lot of respect for the Solana team – they’ve done a lot to onboard people into crypto, and I’m glad to see that. We’re looking to grow the pie, not just compete for the existing pie,” Pollak said. “You don’t need to understand anything about crypto or the underlying infrastructure to post on Zora. Creators can just post their content, start earning, and experience the benefits of onchain social firsthand.”



One thing that I’ve struggled with is the audience for content coins. Pollak, being as bullish as he is, thinks this is a broad way to onboard folks.&nbsp;



He breaks the consumers into two buckets: The first are collectors engaging with content coins for fun and looking to earn a participation trophy for being onchain. Then there are the traders who aim to utilize this newer segment to turn a profit. We’ve clearly seen the rise of the latter thanks to memecoins, but it feels as though the former has been adrift for a while, at least since the popularity of NFTs dropped off.&nbsp;



“We think content coins can help all three segments: creators, collectors, and traders by bringing more content and value onchain,” he explained.&nbsp;



As with all of crypto, the big test will be how long the hype lasts. Memecoins, despite their success, couldn’t even withstand the changing tides. While there’s a decent possibility of success, I’m always wary of the fickle approach crypto takes to narratives.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Base

What Jesse Pollak would’ve done differently in launching ‘Base is for everyone’

Michael McSweeney

This is The Riff segment from a recent edition of the Empire newsletter, where newsletter writer Katherine Ross and other contributors opine on recent happenings in crypto. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On our minds: Content coins</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Katherine Ross: </h3>



I’m of two minds here. 



First (and this was my gut reaction), I wonder if we really need another segment that lacks inherent utility. And, like I wrote above, is this something that lasts? You all know my background prior to crypto. So you know I’m a big fan of things like fundamentals that can help better gauge value.&nbsp;



But the other part of me says I’m holding content coins to an unfair expectation. There are real tokens and projects that are pushing crypto forward — content coins shouldn’t be mixed in with them.



Pollak’s comments made me wonder if content coins could act as crypto’s social media moment (at first I typed TikTok moment, but I don’t think we’re there yet). If we pull back the expectations and let the content speak for itself, I can see a scenario where content coins have a memecoin moment without the volatility. 



And, honestly, things like content coins do push crypto forward. Personally, I’ve found the discourse around the viability and usability to be really enlightening — not to mention, it feels like it’s been a while since I’ve seen such a variety of takes.&nbsp;



That’s not to say I support some of the controversial things that have happened, such as promoting or coining the aforementioned Hinge screenshot, but that’s a whole other discussion I’m happy to have at some point.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Michael McSweeney: </h3>



Like Katherine, I’m of two minds as well.



On the one hand, I’m all for carving out new, weird use cases for tokens. Whether “content coins” will prove to have lasting power or be another flash-in-the-pan CT topic remains to be seen. The folks over at Base obviously have an incentive to see the former outcome realized, so heavy tweeting to that effect (see Katherine’s piece above) is all but guaranteed.



That said, I’m a touch dubious about the notion that content coins will somehow avoid what I like to call speculative destruction, the sort of which tends to send most coins, tokens, etc. to the dustbin soon after they pop.&nbsp;



I think people will develop speculative expectations around a prospective successful content coin because that’s simply what happens in crypto. It’s inherently a speculative game. Always has been. I don’t think some kind of special immunity to those market forces will be conferred because someone came up with a new mode of thinking (though I’m happy to be wrong, as always).



I think if someone creates a content coin and people find a reason to speculate on it, the typical crypto market forces will almost certainly follow —&nbsp;especially if someone with some cash to burn sees a way to make money off whichever narrative surrounds that coin.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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Can content coins avoid ‘speculative destruction?’

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from the Blockworks Daily newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">subscribe</a>.



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“I respect his independence,” former President Nixon reassured the White House crowd at the 1970 <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-swearing-dr-arthur-f-burns-chairman-the-board-governors-the-federal-reserve">swearing-in</a> of Fed Chair Arthur Burns.



“However, I hope that independently he will conclude that my views are the ones that should be followed.”



There’s no video of the event, so it’s hard to say for sure, but I’m guessing that was meant as a joke.



It’s also exactly how things worked out.



Burns famously allowed Fed policy to become subservient to Nixon’s political goals, fueling the 1970s epidemic of inflation.



The much-maligned Fed chair <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/failed-fed">reportedly</a> acknowledged this as a tactical surrender: &#8220;We dare not exercise our independence for fear of losing it.&#8221;



Subsequent Fed chairs have fought their corner more resolutely, stressing that the Federal Reserve is an independent agency within government.



“Our independence is a matter of law,” Jerome Powell <a href="https://youtu.be/XUFVr430VLU?si=8g0IAiEL-1KBEuZn">said</a> just last week.



But that plain statement may mean less than it sounds.



Specifically, Powell meant that individual members of the FOMC are insulated from politics because they can’t be fired: “We’re not removable except for cause,” he noted. “We serve very long terms.”&nbsp;



(“Seemingly endless terms,” he added, drawing a laugh from the sympathetic crowd.)



This, he says, allows the FOMC to do its job “strictly without consideration of political or any other extraneous factors.”



“We’re never going to be influenced by any political pressure,” he promised.



If so, that would be a new development.



For the first two decades of its existence, political influence on the Fed was explicit: By law, the treasury secretary automatically served as the chair of the Federal Reserve as well.



That changed in 1935 as the Fed gained a measure of independence with the chair becoming a presidential appointee, no longer tied to the Treasury Department.



In 1951, the Fed won a further degree of independence when the Treasury Department formally agreed that the Fed could set interest rates without its input.



Still, this hard-won independence remained contingent on political approval.



The Fed was established by an Act of Congress and Congress retains the ability to revise the Act if it disapproves of how its creation is operating.



This is why, at his final press conference as Fed chair, Ben Bernanke offered a simple piece of <a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2016/q2/federal_reserve">advice</a> to his successor, Janet Yellen: “Congress is our boss.”



It’s been a reluctant boss, for the most part — after delegating its Constitutional power over money to the Fed, Congress has generally only held the Fed accountable after financial disasters.



Often, the Congressional response to those disasters is to grant the Fed more power, not less.



This is by design.



In <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Independence-Congress-Governs-Federal/dp/0691163197/ref=sr_1_1?crid=9YHOJHSKC7T0&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.bsZyT3haiztxYj-2kE6IVQ.JVQBzmH_0aksmHRtvUROqFvO2YSV6vL3czdA0R9vIZM&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=the+myth+of+independence+how+congress+governs+the+federal+reserve&amp;qid=1745285598&amp;sprefix=the+myth+of+independ%2Caps%2C160&amp;sr=8-1">The Myth of Independence</a>, Sarah Binder and Mark Spindel explain that, whatever Fed chairs like to say, the Federal Reserve is actually “interdependent” with Congress — and that Congress retains the ultimate authority through the Federal Reserve Act and its power to revise it.



The Fed, they explain, is dependent on Congress for its authority and Congress is dependent on the Fed for its stewardship of the economy.



This arrangement works for Congress largely because it gives them someone to blame when things go wrong — Binder and Spindel note that former Fed Chair William Martin once testified in Congress that “we’re here to be blamed.”



The result, they say, is that the Fed is &#8220;acutely sensitive to the need to secure political support for its policy choices.”



Similarly, the monetary economist James Dorn <a href="https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2019-09/cj-v39n3-5.pdf">found</a> that “the Fed is independent, but in practice that independence is continuously tested by political pressures for using accommodative monetary policy and credit allocation to win votes.”



It&#8217;s mostly been presidents who’ve exerted that political pressure.



Truman called William Martin a “traitor”; LBJ summoned the long-serving Martin to his Texas ranch to verbally assault him over interest rates; Burns was famously subservient to Nixon; Carter reassigned former Fed Chair William Miller to the Treasury Department because interest rates were too low; Paul Volcker was able to raise rates to 20% only because he had Reagan’s backing.



Dorn’s study found all this presidential pressure to be effective: “An examination of the evidence reveals that presidents tend to get the monetary policy they desire,” he concluded.



As a matter of principle, that may not be the worst thing — we wouldn’t let unelected bureaucrats set tax rates without political recourse, so why should we let Fed bureaucrats set interest rates?



As a matter of practice, however, it hasn’t worked out well.



In a <a href="https://econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/papers/drechsel_political_pressure_shocks.pdf">study</a> of presidential influence on the Fed, the economist Thomas Drechsel unsurprisingly found that political pressure increases inflation “strongly and persistently.”



Specifically, he concluded that “increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level more than 8% after a decade.”



Drechsel also found that presidential pressure to lower interest rates negatively affects GDP.



The effect is mild, but he cites it as evidence that “political pressure is not successful” for presidents hoping to win votes by raising economic activity.&nbsp;



That hasn’t stopped them from trying, of course, as we were reminded this week.



Does publicly calling Chair Powell a “major loser” amount to half as much political pressure as Nixon applied on former Chair Burns?&nbsp;



If so, history suggests we have an 8% increase to the price level to look forward to.



Or does President Trump’s schoolyard name calling amount to, say, twice as much pressure?&nbsp;



Drechsel doesn’t do the math on that because, before this week, who could have imagined a president exerting twice as much pressure on a Fed chair than Nixon did with Burns?



But investors appear to be doing the math for themselves: Bitcoin ETFs took in <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/">$381 million</a> yesterday — a notable reversal of the recent trend.



That’s helped push the price of bitcoin to near an <a href="https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1914676954868973719">all-time high</a> relative to the S&amp;P 500 — a surprisingly sensible reaction to renewed presidential pressure on a Fed chair.



When former President Nixon swore in Chair Burns in 1970, gold traded at $35 an ounce.



When President Carter swore in Chair Volcker in 1979, it was about $300 and on its way to a high of $850 a year later.



Markets seem to sense the Fed has another tough decade ahead of it — one spent fighting for its independence.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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Fed independence may be the next major loser

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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There’s a refrain in crypto these days that while many in the industry expected crypto to become more like traditional finance over time, TradFi has actually just become more like crypto.



Zeitgeisty stocks can trade more like memecoins than based on any sort of price-to-earnings ratio. Robinhood offers sports betting. The president of the United States cryptically encouraged investors to buy on social media before a tariff slowdown sent public markets rocketing.



And here’s a new piece of crypto culture to add to the traditional financial world: community takeovers. The CTO happens when a crypto project’s leadership steps away or is no longer cutting it, and its public backers step in to revive its fortunes. Sam Bankman-Fried was once <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tatianakoffman/2020/09/06/exclusive-sbf-speaks-out-on-defis-sushi-saga/">granted</a> control of the SushiSwap multisig, for instance, and a more recent example came when the X profile “BuzzlamicJihad” added hundreds of millions to Aptos’ market cap by repeatedly posting: “Aptos looking good here.”



The TradFi version of a CTO comes from investors buying up niche publicly-listed stocks and announcing a crypto treasury strategy — leading the price to pump. Janover Inc. (now DeFi Development Corporation) <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/janover-to-receive-kraken-staked-sol">did so recently</a> after buying a real estate company and issuing convertible bonds to raise capital and buy Solana.



Yesterday, crypto-native market maker and investor GSR announced it had led a private placement into Nasdaq-listed Upexi alongside a group of other crypto investors. The funds were meant to back a Solana-based treasury strategy. Like DeFi Dev Corp, Upexi is relatively new to crypto. It went from <a href="https://ir.upexi.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/85/upexis-tytan-tile-kits-disney-frozen-and-new-disney-jr">selling</a> Disney-branded products at BJ’s Wholesale Club to strategically <a href="https://ir.upexi.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/97/upexi-shifts-focus-into-bitcoin-and-crypto-with-strategic">investing</a> in crypto via holding companies over the past year. Both stock prices surged by hundreds of percent following their crypto treasury and investment announcements.&nbsp;



In crypto, it’s easier to CTO a microcap memecoin than a blue-chip token, and the stock market CTO’ers seem to have learned this. Upexi had a market capitalization of $3.65 million at the end of last year, and Janover’s was $6.87 million. Both could likely have been flirting with forced delisting from the Nasdaq due to poor financial performance. Instead, the crypto saviors stepped in and offered US investors a regulated wrapper in which to gain Solana exposure.



Many have expressed doubts about the longevity of Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-buying spree at Strategy, but for the time being, the stock is a success story. And while SOL ETFs await approval, Solana folks want in on the action.



“Michael Saylor and his team pioneered some extremely capital efficient accrual mechanisms — I&#8217;m excited to see GSR through Upexi attempt to bring this mechanism to assets other than bitcoin,” DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa, who participated in the Upexi placement alongside GSR, said in a direct message.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Lightspeed Newsletter

Small-cap stocks are adding Solana exposure

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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President Trump is still going after Fed Chair Powell. In a Monday Truth Social Post, Trump reiterated that he wants to see lower interest rates now, adding that Powell is “a major loser.”&nbsp;



Trump is hardly the first president to voice frustrations with the Fed and its leadership. But he is the only sitting president in modern history who has publicly threatened to fire the chair.&nbsp;



Both Joe Biden and Barack Obama — during their respective terms — said they were disheartened by slow progress on inflation, but each also stressed their respect for the central bank’s independence.&nbsp;



Of course, there’s the question of whether or not the president has the authority to remove a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jerome-powell-chair-stance-trump">sitting Fed chair</a>. Given what we’ve already seen from this administration (remember what happened at the FTC?), I’d argue fleshing out the legal argument is perhaps moot.&nbsp;



Trump has shown us that he’ll usually do what he wants. Should the courts uphold his decision to remove FTC commissioners, Powell’s job is even more at risk.&nbsp;



ECB President Christine Lagarde said during a Tuesday morning CNBC appearance that she hopes the Fed maintains its independence. Though she, too, has faced political pressures. When asked about what impact firing Powell could have, she declined to speculate.&nbsp;



&#8220;I&#8217;m not going to comment on market reaction to hypotheticals that I hope are just not on the table,” Lagarde said.&nbsp;



One <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/351539/standard-chartered-bitcoin-rising-fed-independence-risks?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social">argument</a> is that growing tensions between the Fed and executive branch could boost the price of bitcoin. I’d have to disagree, though. The Fed’s independence is a key stabilizing factor of the economy, and removing this would surely damage risk assets. For now at least, bitcoin still trades like a risk asset.&nbsp;



I’ll go ahead and apologize now to any bitcoin maximalists I may have offended.



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Trump continues criticizing Powell as global leaders stress importance of independence 

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Because the industry’s been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoins-tokenization-blackrock-galaxy-das">talking a lot</a> about the use cases for stablecoins and onchain RWAs, it’s worth highlighting a soon-to-launch settlement network for institutions.



Called Lynq, the network will be powered by the Arca Institutional US Treasury Fund (TFND). That has a portfolio of short-term, yield-bearing US Treasurys and issues its shares via the Avalanche Blockchain.&nbsp;



TFND requires AML/KYC on subscribers, and all client funds are held with US Bank.



Speaking of partners, Lynq is set to use tZERO’s special purpose broker-dealer <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tzero-spbd-license-custody">license</a> and Tassat’s real-time blockchain infrastructure. (Since launching in 2017, Tassat has settled more than $2.5 trillion for institutions).&nbsp;



B2C2, Galaxy and Wintermute will “ensure critical mass by onboarding their top clients early, expanding adoption and establishing initial liquidity,” Arca Labs president Jerald David told me.



Arca Labs has been consulting with prime brokers, market makers, exchanges and stablecoin issuers for more than a year, David added. The goal is for funds to flow to and from exchanges to fund accounts and trades. And for stablecoin issuers to create and redeem for their users on Lynq.&nbsp;



In Wintermute managing director Katryna Hanush’s words: Lynq “streamlines onboarding, subscription and redemption, offering counterparties a safer and more efficient way to transact through settlement rails that integrate regulatory clarity, real-time operations and yield.”&nbsp;



That last word — yield — is important.



Taking a step back, stablecoins (aka tokenized cash) have grown to be a roughly $230 billion market. Agora co-founder Nick van Eck said at last week’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenized-rwa-segments-will-boom-next">TokenizeThis conference</a> that he expects USD-denominated stablecoins to “nuke” most non-G20 country currencies over the next 20 years as more people adopt blockchain-based finance.&nbsp;



Van Eck projects that stablecoins could grow to a $2 trillion market cap in five years.&nbsp;



Meanwhile, tokenized money market funds are a smaller — but growing — segment, with BlackRock’s BUIDL fund recently passing $2 billion in AUM on its own.&nbsp;



Industry watchers expect this category to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenized-yield-funds-complement-stablecoins">grow in tandem</a> with stablecoins — with the former serving as a cash savings vehicle and the latter being an instrument for payments.



Stablecoin issuer Circle noted the demand to move <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-hashnote-deal-tokenized-money">between cash and yield</a> when it acquired Hashnote in January.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Lynq uses Tassat’s “yield in transit” functionality, meaning institutions can receive interest based on intraday fund holdings, David explained. Fund interest is sent to Lynq users in five-second increments and distributed daily.&nbsp;



It remains to be seen whether Lynq can fulfill what it hopes to do. David labeled that goal, in 10 years, as aiming to “facilitate seamless interoperability between traditional and decentralized finance” via tokenized securities settlement, permissioned liquidity pools and who knows what else.



First it has to launch. Then we’ll see what sort of traction it gets and who else seeks to follow suit (and improve upon it).



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Arca

How a yield-bearing settlement network reflects a tokenization trend

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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US equities are once again trading on a dream.&nbsp;



The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit intraday highs Tuesday after Bloomberg — citing unnamed sources&nbsp;— <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/bessent-sees-de-escalation-with-china-situation-unsustainable">reported</a> that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US/China trade war is unsustainable. While he expects de-escalation in the future, he said negotiations have not yet started.&nbsp;



Bessent apparently made the comment at an investor event in Washington closed to the public and media.&nbsp;



The Dow had gained more than 1,000 points midway through Tuesday’s session while the Nasdaq Composite rose as much as 3.3%.&nbsp;



The moves once again show just how desperate investors are for signs that the White House is inking deals with trade partners. As of 2 pm ET, the Trump administration had not commented on Bessent’s reported remarks.  In a report published Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8% (from 3%) in 2025 and 2026. Analysts cited “epistemic uncertainty and policy unpredictability,” adding that the US effective tariff rate is now higher than it was during the Great Depression.



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China

US stocks erase Monday losses after Bessent calls China trade situation ‘unsustainable’

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">subscribe</a>.



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Immutable co-founder Robbie Ferguson <a href="https://x.com/0xferg/status/1914650894840500628">wrote</a> on Tuesday morning: “Tomorrow we announce the outcome of a multibillion dollar partnership that&#8217;s been in the works for 2+ years.”&nbsp;



While we didn’t hear anything from Immutable by publication time, it could be about their game with Ubisoft.



Immutable’s partnership with Ubisoft’s Strategic Innovation Lab was first <a href="https://www.immutable.com/blog/immutable-and-ubisofts-strategic-innovation-lab-pioneering-a-frictionless-web3-gaming-experience">announced</a> in November 2023.



During an on-record interview at the Game Developers Conference in March, Immutable Chief Studio Officer Justin Hulog told Blockworks that he has been “working on co-developing a game with Ubisoft that we’re going to announce next month” for the past two and a half years. He added that “it’s one where we’ve really worked with their dev team to take the best of their learnings around TCGs.”



“Gods Unchained has been running for four years, so that’s been really helping to combine those two learnings together,” Hulog said.



While more specific details about the new game have not yet been made public, it’ll likely have blockchain elements and may use Immutable’s zkEVM, which Immutable is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-gaming-walled-garden-ethos">leading game developers toward</a> these days over its Immutable X chain.



Ubisoft is the studio behind the Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry and Tom Clancy game franchises, to name a few. The studio previously launched Champions Tactics: Grimoria Chronicles using the Oasys blockchain back in October 2024.&nbsp;



“I believe, really, that we should stay chain-agnostic,” Ubisoft’s Innovation Lab VP Nicolas Pouard said during a panel moderated by Blockworks during the Game Developers Conference. Pouard did not immediately respond to Blockworks’ request for comment.



Before Champions Tactics, Ubisoft unveiled its Ubisoft Quartz NFT platform and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ubisoft-nft-efforts-are-off-to-a-rocky-start">released NFTs on Tezos</a> for its Tom Clancy game Ghost Recon: Breakpoint back in 2021.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The IMX token pumped after Ferguson’s tweet, spiking 28% from $0.46 right before the post to $0.59 within two hours, per CoinGecko data. IMX is up about 34% in the past week.



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Immutable teases ‘multibillion dollar’ collab that could be its game with Ubisoft

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">subscribe</a>.



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Michael Egorov is no stranger to token incentive mechanisms. As the founder of <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/curve">Curve</a>, he pioneered vote-escrow (ve) tokenomics to juice the growth of the stablecoin AMM. But his new protocol, Yield Basis, is built for a different kind of user: “people who want to earn something on mostly Bitcoin,” as Egorov told Blockworks.



At its core, Yield Basis is an attempt to eliminate LP impermanent loss by leveraging liquidity. Egorov explains: “If you leverage liquidity by a factor of two and keep this leverage, then the pricing of liquidity which gives you impermanent loss actually disappears.” The result, he says, is LP positions that behave like spot BTC exposure — with none of the usual downside when prices move violently.



The mechanism builds on Curve’s liquidity pools, but with key upgrades. Egorov has engineered the system to “re-leverage” automatically, keeping the 2x ratio constant. “It’s very important to keep this ratio very, very precise,” he said, noting that “a special AMM will do it for you.”



That precision, he argues, is what distinguishes Yield Basis from <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://blockworks.co/analytics/fluid">Fluid</a>. “From what I understand, [Fluid is] doing it rather manually,” he said. “They’re earning a lot in fees, but they are losing more when this process of moving the range happens.”



The Fluid team <a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Made_Here/status/1914770198806012289">responded</a> that rebalancing is in fact “automated and done by arbitrageurs,” and its upcoming DEX v2 will be permissionless, likely replicating similar features.



Yield Basis is designed to have automated arbitrage-driven rebalancing logic, preserving capital value in BTC terms. “You want your number of bitcoin to smoothly go up rather than ever go down,” Egorov said.



Of course, there are new protocol tokens involved. And the tokenomics design is no less ambitious. LPs must choose: Either earn real BTC-denominated yield from trading fees, or forgo that income in exchange for emissions of the protocol’s first native token, $YB. “We only distribute real revenues to liquidity providers who did not choose to earn YB inflation,” Egorov said.



That dynamic turns YB emissions into something closer to mining than farming. “Every single $YB token has an intrinsic cost of being mined,” <a href="https://x.com/vasily_sumanov/status/1913267626391863370">wrote</a> researcher Vasily Sumanov in a recent X article. “Users efficiently buy $YB from the protocol at a certain price (or bear a certain cost to obtain them).”



The token’s utility follows a familiar Curve model. YB can be locked into veYB to direct emissions and capture BTC yield, launching what some are already calling <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/podcast-understanding-the-curve-wars">Curve Wars</a> 2.0. “When bootstrapping a new project, it’s actually good to have a new token,” Egorov said — and there is expected to be one for each chain deployment with “its own governance on every chain.”



That decision, which is likely to raise some eyebrows, is driven partly by a desire to remove any need for bridging, and partly because “having one token per chain can open good business opportunities to align with local ecosystems in non-ETH chains,” Egorov said.



Despite being a standalone protocol, Egorov insists Curve also stands to benefit. “10% of the fully diluted YB token distribution will go toward Curve,” he said. Plus, Curve’s collateralized stablecoin, crvUSD, is central to the architecture. “These YB tokens can be used to buy votes for crvUSD liquidity…that’s revenues for the DAO if you count vote incentives as revenues.”



The Curve DAO <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/ethereum-curve-spending-microscope">directly funds</a> Egorov’s company, Swiss Stake AG. Aave founder Stani Kulechov recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/making-sense-of-daos-in-2025">received pushback</a> from Aave token holders about his plans to launch a new protocol under similar terms.



Yield Basis quietly raised $5 million in February, and is not yet live. It will launch first on Ethereum mainnet. When? “Once I’m sure the code is safe and ready,” Egorov said. “I want to see it performing in real life.”



Updated, Apr. 23, 2025 at 7:30 am — Comment from Fluid team. 



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Yield Basis wants to be DeFi’s ‘Bitcoin black hole’

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We all know halvings double the cost of production, a fact the media tends to dress up as an existential threat to Bitcoin every four years.



Miners seeking profit must also contend with fluctuating difficulty and energy costs. But if the price goes up, at least they’d get more money for every coin they mine.



At $88,500, bitcoin is ahead by 36% since the halving. More importantly, it’s up 130% on the average price during the last phase of the prior halving cycle (more than double!)



As it goes, high prices attract more miners, which have driven bitcoin’s total hash rate to all-time highs alongside the difficulty.



In fact, while mining revenue is more-or-less in line with its five-year average, the difficulty is currently five times what it was in April 2021, and 40% higher than just before the last halving.



So, it’s harder than ever to generate bitcoins. But how much does it cost to mine 1 BTC right now? Always hard to say, with the answer highly dependent on electricity and other overhead costs, although Cambridge currently <a href="https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map/mining_data">estimates</a> $48,671 per coin.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcPm6lCLOLsYMEswc_dYNNK9i5qsFS8r9u6e8SEU8JiY-JFKhv5m-fNWgp89v4igCvYAWgHMKT4E9OOGoZ15mJl1HwlqHfMe3wuo2yKynPSFMVChcoq7tRJNfWf2s3_cAVtuDgwRQ?key=GuAZi2sZmjsdrrf8BehQomo4" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Strong bitcoin prices have kept miner revenue almost on par with peak 2021 and 2024 bull markets (source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/bitcoin?dashboard=btc-financial">Blockworks Research</a>).</figcaption></figure>



Let’s use Marathon, the $4 billion mining giant responsible for about 7% of Bitcoin’s total hash rate, as an example.&nbsp;



In the three quarters leading up to the most recent halving, Marathon’s cost of mining revenues were $224.95 million, according to its SEC filings.



Marathon mined in total 10,542 BTC over the same period, which puts the estimated cost of producing each coin at just under $21,500. Bitcoin traded at $39,300 on average over that time, implying potential profit of $17,800 per coin.



Across the third and fourth quarters of last year, Marathon’s estimated cost of production using the same method works out at $43,270 — correctly doubling since the halving and in line with Cambridge’s estimate — against an average trade price of $72,250. That suggests potential profit of nearly $29,000, which is even higher than before the halving.



(Marathon CEO Fred Thiel <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-marathon-digital-q4-2024-beats-eps-forecasts-93CH-3894570">said</a> in February that Marathon’s direct energy cost per bitcoin for last year was $28,801 overall, although that would include some of the previous epoch, before the cost of production doubled. Marathon profited over half a billion dollars in Q4 2024)



One year on from the halving and based on Marathon’s figures, the bitcoin block subsidy is still lucrative enough, at least at current prices for the most well capitalised operations. Other miners might sometimes run at a loss, going by <a href="https://data.hashrateindex.com/network-data/bitcoin-hashprice-index">Luxor’s Hashrate Index</a>, which points to some of the lowest profitability on record. Understandable, given five halvings have passed.



In any case, Bitcoin has three years left to double in price to counteract the next one. Plenty of time.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Money is speech</h2>



“I&#8217;m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.”



Satoshi <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48.msg329#msg329">said</a> that on Valentine’s Day in 2010 — a little over 15 years ago.&nbsp;



It was an addendum to a comment about the necessity for transaction fees in a system that sees block rewards cut to zero over time. “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.”



So, how close is Satoshi to the truth, less than five years out from his hypothetical?&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfBSQ3CtFqYrljmyWJd6NYWzi3g6VHPlZsMXVaHCwM1w-Vlz57E7EnL5QV3bL9PMRQMgQfnXqbT-oRxJebHxNof0_HD0JVLBv_AQEgtAzQdbhD7u_ucy9J59yFfgyES3fSs6codQg?key=GuAZi2sZmjsdrrf8BehQomo4" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Monthly transfer volume has fallen in recent months but is still way up 2023 (source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/bitcoin?dashboard=btc-onchain-activity">Blockworks Research</a>).</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin processes more than 11.5 million transactions per month, up from under 8 million in early 2022, converting to $1.8 trillion BTC in volume on average.



On one hand, that might be “very large,” like Satoshi predicted, but over 98% of miner revenue still comes from the block subsidy.



A few more halvings and the current dynamic may no longer be tenable, so expect debate over Bitcoin’s fee market structure to ramp up over time. For more on the reasons to be alarmed, you can listen to core developer James O’Beirne on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JITvE9BwIRQ">today’s episode of Supply Shock</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rizzo&#8217;s view, on this day</h2>



You might hear the phrase “Bitcoin bubble” a lot these days, what with prices surging over $100,000. A look back at media articles from the past, however, and not much has changed. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeTmUnYXhCXGgDnb_SdUU5uw0CYsphzDre8GS216mFldrul2DEHXCJegoDGveIcgBVIaUeyzRsouF-Q8gEQFzICjoCZkRPcGaejY6MU2qaF8XokBMLsc25n6_T5G7H5RPd8bWvi4A?key=GuAZi2sZmjsdrrf8BehQomo4" width="624" height="333">



On Reddit, I posted this chart as a reminder of just how long the trope has lasted. In fact, the above chart was <a href="https://techliberation.com/2011/04/25/revisiting-the-bitcoin-bubble/">posted by Coin Center founder Jerry Brito</a>, 14 years ago. There he wrote about how even if Bitcoin died, the technology was here to stay. He was right with one caveat — the technology was Bitcoin. <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/rizzobitcoinhistory/">Follow me on Reddit</a>.



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bitcoin halving

A year after the Bitcoin halving, how much does 1 BTC cost to mine?

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Let’s talk about tokens.&nbsp;



It’s been a fairly big debate on CT (sorry, Elon, CX just doesn’t have the same ring to it). But let me back up for those of you who have managed to spare yourselves from the takes across social media: Basically, in light of ZORA, folks are debating the overall appetite for tokens.&nbsp;



“$ZORA is for fun only and does not entitle its holders to any governance rights or a claim on any equity ownership in Zora or its products,” Zora said on its <a href="https://support.zora.co/en/articles/4796161">website</a>.&nbsp;



We’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-evolving-fundamentals-skale">talked a few times</a> now about the rise of fundamentals in crypto, and tokens like ZORA kind of go directly against that thesis because there are no fundamentals. And that’s the debate that I’ve been stuck on.



Ryan Connor of <a href="https://www.blockworksresearch.com">Blockworks Research</a> thinks that crypto should focus on tokens that are backed by fundamentals. Connor has long been a believer in the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-fundamentals-metrics-to-watch">rise of fundamentals</a>.



On the other hand, folks say that tokens like ZORA are bullish because they introduce a new type to experiment with.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">seeing lots of hate for the zora token because it doesn&#39;t grant any rights to holders imo this is good actually – we need more experimentation on what tokens mean, in all directions. not a memecoin, not a gov token, but an exciting new thing. bullish&mdash; yitong (@zhayitong) <a href="https://twitter.com/zhayitong/status/1914459763586605432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



However, is ZORA really any different than a memecoin? While Zora promotes itself as being for “fun only,” it’s not as fun as a memecoin per se, given that those who buy the token are funding the treasury without getting anything in return.&nbsp;



In fact, one of the best critiques of ZORA I’ve seen came from Triton’s Kevin Mills, who noted that the issue isn’t that the token is for fun, but rather the fact that the money goes to serve the project and investors.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">This is exactly the problem. Zora launching a token &#8211; and simultaneously claiming it is just &#39;for fun&#39; and does not confer any rights or claims on flows, but then allocating &#39;just for fun money&#39; to its treasury and investors. What does that mean? They are willingly letting… <a href="https://t.co/IEBFs6gghz">https://t.co/IEBFs6gghz</a> <a href="https://t.co/fbcLFswEnz">pic.twitter.com/fbcLFswEnz</a>&mdash; Kevin Mills (@__kfm__) <a href="https://twitter.com/__kfm__/status/1914316780618870815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“Tokens are controversial,” Connor noted. “Especially in the context of memecoins, which I think have been objectively the most successful product in the history of crypto.”



He added that crypto projects have to ask themselves: where does a token make sense?



“You have a lot of data collected in crypto where you should mostly know where tokens make sense. In the context of scarcity and assets that have value, tokens make a lot of sense. In the context of governance, tokens make a lot of sense in the context of the memecoin game,” he added.&nbsp;



But the difference between a memecoin for fun and a token like ZORA is that folks understand the game of “chicken” that they’re playing when jumping into a memecoin that could quickly wipe out in a matter of minutes.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">launching a 300M FDV token just for fun and without any responsibility, then giving 56.7M to investors and team members as a little joke <a href="https://t.co/BIeYSNYsx8">https://t.co/BIeYSNYsx8</a>&mdash; zkboccaccio (@salveboccaccio) <a href="https://twitter.com/salveboccaccio/status/1914319121929441601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“However, in the context of project tokens, it was a very early 2024 thing where a project could launch a memecoin, and people would jump in,” Connor said. “The market is increasingly punishing projects that have done that, and in light of the market exhaustion over a low float, high FDV … my bet is ZORA, if it is just a memecoin, I don&#8217;t expect it to do too well.”



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Empire Newsletter

Memecoins are ‘objectively’ the most successful crypto product: Analyst

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto cycles tend to have two big innovations: something real and something ridiculous that distracts retail, pumps the wrong narrative and eventually implodes the market.



We&#8217;ve had a ton of innovations this cycle, but none have really stuck because memecoins showed up early and stole the show. However, if recent <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/helium-decentralizing-telecom-with-web3-incentives">momentum</a> from projects like Helium is anything to go by, the current run might get its more &#8220;serious&#8221; cycle innovation after all, thanks to decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN).



DePIN uses crypto incentives and public coordination to bootstrap real-world infrastructure (like wireless coverage, sensor networks, GPU clusters, energy grids). Instead of billion-dollar telcos or centralized cloud platforms, the infrastructure gets built by communities and aligned with token rewards. In theory, it&#8217;s the internet&#8217;s final Frankenstein, turning crypto into a tool to build digital utility outward into meatspace.



In recent weeks, <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/helium-decentralizing-telecom-with-web3-incentives">Helium has hit new all-time highs</a> in DAO voting participation, $MOBILE validator onboarding and usage-based rewards. It’s also <a href="https://world.helium.com/en/mobile">passed</a> major protocol milestones: expanding 5G coverage to over 4,500 radios across 2,000+ US cities and driving real-world traffic to Helium Mobile&#8217;s $20/month unlimited plan — now sold in 3,000 Walmart stores.



Take that in for a moment: These are actual phones using a crypto-backed, community-powered DePIN network.



Traditional telecom is bloated, centralized and hostile to innovation. Infrastructure costs are egregious, rural service is often non-existent, and MVNOs are locked into opaque backend deals. Helium is flipping this by letting users deploy coverage infrastructure, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/helium-mobile-introduces-free-plan">earn rewards</a> based on network demand, and manage protocol upgrades through its onchain governance systems. It&#8217;s basically Uber-for-cell-towers (ew, I know. Such a cheugy analogy at this point), except instead of squeezing labor, it aligns long-term incentives through verifiable coverage proofs and onchain traffic accounting.



That said, it’s far from a done deal for Helium. The protocol’s parent company Nova Labs underwent a significant <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/helium-parent-company-layoffs">round of layoffs</a> last summer, and it now has competition from the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/xnet-att-partnership-wifi-depin">likes of XNET</a>. It’s still unclear just how profitable Helium Mobile’s business is.



Initially launched for low-data IoT sensors (LoRaWAN), Helium&#8217;s pivot to 5G mobile was a big step toward legitimacy. Through a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/helium-cell-plan-goes-nationwide">partnership with T-Mobile</a>, Helium Mobile now operates as a hybrid carrier, routing data across both centralized infrastructure and community-run equipment. Doing this has enabled fresh experiments in coverage-based rewards, user-side rebates and real-time tracking of infrastructure usage — all of which are settled on Solana.



Helium&#8217;s not alone. In recent months, projects like Hivemapper (decentralized Street View), WeatherXM (community weather data) and Grass (browser-based data capture for AI models) have each carved out early traction. The common thread here is real-world participation, mostly thanks to tokenized incentives. These are applications that COULD exist without crypto, but they scale better with it. People like monetary rewards, it turns out.



If any of these networks hit a tipping point where proper utility gains equilibrium with the joys of token yield, I think we might see it spark the first DePIN-native flywheel.



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