chaos and disorder

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Stocks traded sideways — stalling their pre-Christmas rally — and cryptos dipped Thursday, making one of the final trading days of the year a relatively quiet one.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500 was down 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.02% at 2 pm ET. Bitcoin and ether were down 3% and 3.8%, respectively, over the past 24 hours at that time.&nbsp;



The post-holiday moves came as investors unpacked one of the only economic data reports of the week: initial jobless claims.&nbsp;



There were 210,000 first-time filers for the week ended Dec. 21, marking a slight decrease from the week prior and coming in lower than median expectation of 224,000. Continuing claims, however, came in at 1.9 million, slightly higher than the anticipated 1.88 million.&nbsp;



The mixed report did not budge odds of an interest rate cut from the Fed next month. Fed funds futures markets on Thursday called for a 91% chance central bankers hold rates on Jan. 29, per <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a> from CME Group.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“One factor that pressures equities is the behavior of the fixed income market,” Pepperstone research strategist Quasar Elizundia said. “The continued rise in bond yields, driven by the reassessment of less restrictive monetary policy expectations, creates some concern.”&nbsp;



Stocks are going to face additional headwinds, Elizundia added, given that investors seem certain interest rates in 2025 will not fall as much as previously anticipated.



On the crypto front, the real market-movers in 2025 are likely to revolve around <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-potential-shift-enforcement-actions">regulatory</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/republican-nominees-for-house-committees">news</a>. New <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">leadership</a> at the SEC and CFTC, combined with a Republican-majority Congress and campaign promises from President-elect Donald Trump, could set the stage for a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-new-age-in-2025">breakout</a> in the first half of the new year.&nbsp;



Still, though, it would be foolish to count out the role macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy have on crypto prices, so we’d suggest keeping an eye on just about everything (or at least your inbox) next year.&nbsp;



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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2024’s market ends on a sleepy note

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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I sit reflecting on the year and what has transpired, especially in relation to the recent FOMC meeting that surprised hawkish and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-reaction-to-fed-rate-cut">shocked markets</a>. Over one year it felt like we’ve been through five different versions of the Fed.&nbsp;



In the winter of 2024, the Fed got spooked by surprisingly elevated inflation prints in the first quarter. This led them to reverse their dovish inclinations they had set up in the fall of 2023. Then, in June, the FOMC surprised the market with a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">hawkish dot plot</a> that implied hardly any cuts in 2024.&nbsp;



Then, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/july-disappointing-jobs-report">concerning</a> jobs report in August flipped the entire narrative on its head. The Fed became concerned about a growth scare and losing the labor market, and once again flipped dovish, climaxing in a September <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-interest-rate-cut">cut of 50bps</a> to kick off the rate-cutting cycle. We’ve now had 100bps of cuts and the Fed has once again flipped hawkish. The outlook for 2025 is uncertain, with a forecast of only two cuts occurring next year.&nbsp;



If that all sounded like a rollercoaster of confusion, trust your instinct —&nbsp;it was.



Now, with January priced for a pause and no meeting in February, I’m once again expecting another flip-flop as we head into the new year. Additionally, I see the potential for more cuts than what is currently expected in 2025 to be priced in during the first quarter.



So as we head into the new year, I give you my parting thoughts: Expect to continue hearing the noise of flip-flops in the distance.&nbsp;



Enjoy the holidays and see you in 2025!



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Recapping the Fed flip-flop of 2024

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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Predicting the top of a crypto market cycle is as much an art as it is a science.



There’s your Uber driver inquiring about the latest dog coin, a noticeable increase in dodgy celebrity crypto projects, or that cousin you see once a year at Thanksgiving sliding into your DMs for crypto advice.



Here are five tools crypto investors turn to when they dust off the crystal ball every four years. It goes without saying that none of this historical data is a definite guarantee for the future.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin halving</h2>



Any discussion about crypto cycles is not complete without reference to the quadrennial <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">Bitcoin halving</a> event.&nbsp;



Every approximate four years, the Bitcoin network halves its reward emissions. The latest halving saw network <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-2024-occurs">emissions halved</a> from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.



The halving is the centerpiece of crypto cycles because it has come to be a signal for the beginning of greed and speculation in crypto markets. Importantly, each cycle has tended to peak around 12-18 months after the halving:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeHtI8s_95DPGmqFCu6ki_ExsTs9o0XaJDbPUE4JJkQ2fyu188P1k1rfUTmNZNfwFqYzlVs5IAsWSYVTPHoQZZEOdZ_NoaSeJ_h2y_2pJraNAoJfSx1fe0WHgH3ORweP05XRWZX_A?key=4g3ijPe9gvLQaFQj29sadueS" alt=""/></figure>



We are eight months into the latest halving in April 2024, and if history is a reliable indicator, the 2024 cycle still has ways to go.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Google search for ‘bitcoin’</h2>



Hardly a week goes by in the crypto bull market without this chart surfacing on Twitter. It’s a brain-dead simple indicator: Retail wants to keep up to date, and bitcoin is the go-to Google keyword for doing so.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcezM_gtS1XOmDLiifWWWt2tapiH7M11h3cXcuw3gyLiMXdPBqluHbItviYOfOZyki5xljqnXfClQYr2Iq8X57SNPT7WfuDa_sje1r1zju4EK-cyO7jTQoFF6YSuhJj736SQJL9KA?key=4g3ijPe9gvLQaFQj29sadueS" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;geo=US&amp;q=bitcoin&amp;hl=en">GoogleTrends</a></figcaption></figure>



The last peak in bitcoin search interest was in mid-May 2021, about six months before the price of bitcoin actually did top out.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Pi Cycle Top indicator</h2>



The Pi Cycle Top is a quantitative measure of bitcoin’s price on two moving averages: 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by two).



Subscribers to the Pi Cycle Top indicator believe the cycle top is in when the former crosses the latter. This has happened with fair accuracy in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-drawdowns">past</a> bull cycles in 2013, 2017 and 2021.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeMXSWepM9-uTUrN5sK05Jp7YdoTjMzzBj1oy_OUR1oyNBfVrAlg9s6vhX4A52GHtYO2PxNPt4CAclhF1lcWCS9hdtHdVhvQGbxySuIOPuzZwGe3A3bNO-M6iVQlZpUsqZhFFii?key=4g3ijPe9gvLQaFQj29sadueS" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/CryptoCon_/status/1866949795924832640">CryptoCon</a></figcaption></figure>



The indicator rests on a key premise: The end of a bull market is near when everyone and their mom is thinking of getting their hands on the orange coin. This market euphoria drives prices to unsustainable levels above “normal” growth trends, which causes bitcoin prices in the short term to significantly deviate from the long term.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">App Store rankings</h2>



Premise: First-timers are using Coinbase rather than Uniswap to ape into cryptocurrencies. Implication: When Coinbase ranks highly on App Store rankings, the top of the cycle is near.



Simple enough?



It’s a nifty qualitative measure of crypto sentiment, and there are whole Telegram groups dedicated to just tracking it. In the last week, Coinbase has ranged from 66th to 135th.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdJvgZqCACVMSaSnhs-ZLOKXVR1Lm9enWBl8vU0X6vYAfRgpmX2qM0iPkajfAx6HqziOfDVhWBuz24wubNA6RzECDrc2kmbf_UsZIs-oaeWBVC0FYUw5HMpSy_5vaDz4QS2rz8_?key=4g3ijPe9gvLQaFQj29sadueS" alt=""/></figure>



With Solana in the limelight again, a popular derivative of this measure has been the Phantom Wallet ranking. The prevailing idea is similar: Retail loves Solana memecoins, so they’re all downloading Phantom on their phones to trade them.



The big assumption with this measure is that crypto investing is still largely untouched by the mainstream, and with every cycle comes a new wave of retail investors that have never installed centralized exchange apps. If crypto is already “mainstream,” this measure loses its relevance.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETH:BTC ratio</h2>



Ah, the revered ETH:BTC ratio that podcasters and investors cannot help constantly obsessing over.



Here’s the idea: Investors buy bitcoin in the early innings of the crypto cycle. Unsatisfied with profits from the orange coin, they soon “rotate” into riskier altcoins, which spikes the ETH:BTC ratio.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfP_e-3uAEuXj9WCvHpHzfS0bk2qNkZRsZkHbMniv0O96r2MnHhU1ML7l61zkGFcE_o6WA_sXxwfQAGpCg2jf3iQB7V6AHr9iCkjJIgZFXr4Ims5JBRGWQ_xpeSX2wI-f4q6Ul4Vw?key=4g3ijPe9gvLQaFQj29sadueS" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/">TradingView</a></figcaption></figure>



With ETH’s sentiment currently in the <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/sentiment-ethereum-tracking-price">gutter</a>, ETH:BTC has become a measure of questionable value this cycle. ETH:BTC is currently at a depressing low of 0.034. For context, ETH:BTC peaked at 0.075 in 2022, and 0.0109 in 2018.



If history repeats itself, expect markets to crash when ETH:BTC nears its tops.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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The art of predicting the top of a crypto cycle

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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We all know it’s lame to live in the past.&nbsp;



It’s cringe when middle-aged dadbros bring up their high school football “careers,” and we shake our heads when our moms drone on about their college semesters abroad in Europe (it’s always Italy).



But now it’s my turn.



Lighting Network was the best thing that has ever happened to Bitcoin — until it wasn’t.



A refresher: Lightning is a proposed layer-2 solution for enabling super fast (almost instant) and cheap BTC transfers.&nbsp;



Usually, it takes about an hour on average for bitcoin transfers to be fully confirmed. Standard practice says that a transaction is only settled when it’s six blocks deep in the chain, and blocks arrive every 10 minutes or so.



Instead, Lightning Network allows two users to open a payments channel between them, and only the first and last transaction in that channel actually makes it to the Bitcoin blockchain.&nbsp;



Everything else in between then becomes just a matter for the two parties — so no need to wait for any confirmations at all, beyond the offchain tallies displayed by the Lightning app being used.



Anyone who’d entered crypto in the past three years might only really know Lightning from El Salvador’s monumental adoption of bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021.



The official government Chivo app and other payment processors like OpenNode used Lightning as their backbone. This meant many regular Salvadorans were suddenly converted into Lightning users, even if they didn’t fully know it.



The <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/09/15/one-year-of-bitcoin-in-el-salvador-the-bad-the-good-and-the-ugly">rollout</a> was not without problems. And while Lightning <a href="https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightning">capacity</a> had been on the rise in the leadup to El Salvador’s adoption, the amount of bitcoin bouncing around channels still jumped almost 40% in the following three months, from under 2,400 BTC to 3,300 BTC.



These days, there’s closer to 5,000 BTC ($500 million with BTC at $100k), but growth has stagnated in the past two and a half years.&nbsp;



The real kicker is that Lightning was so much more fun and relevant when there was less than 1,000 BTC on the network. When silly micropayment gimmicks ran free.



Between late 2018 and early 2019, a <a href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/playing-layer-2-satoshis-games-brings-lightning-next-level">proliferation</a> of experimental apps captured imaginations. There were Miniclip-style gaming portals like Satoshi’s Games, as well as a Mario clone “Super Bro” that transformed every in-game coin into a collectible sat.



Those were great. But none held a candle (or even a <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2019/02/05/bitcoins-lightning-torch-explained-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters">Lightning Torch</a>) to two in particular:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Pollo.feed, which <a href="https://thenextweb.com/news/feed-chickens-using-bitcoin-blockchain">allowed</a> you to feed actual live chickens remotely for just a few sats while you watched via livestream. Magic internet money was instantly physical.</li>



<li>Satoshi’s World would let you traverse Google Earth, tagging it with whatever nonsense graffiti you’d like — and visible for all the other digital travelers to see (I <a href="https://thenextweb.com/news/bitcoin-graffiti-amsterdam">tagged</a> Amsterdam Central Station with “LONG BITCOIN, SHORT THE BANKERS”).</li>
</ul>



It’s okay that Bitcoin is more serious these days. But it’s also not.



The internet was absolutely better when we were all doing dumb stuff on the Lightning Network. Sadly, we’ll probably never make it back.&nbsp;



Now, who’s ready to hear about that time I hit a full-court touchdown?



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Glory days: Why we can’t forget Lightning Network

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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What better way to celebrate the season than by diving into the holly-jolly madness of holiday memecoins?&nbsp;



Pump.fun has been brimming with festive chaos as degens deck the chain with memes and mayhem, so we thought we’d take a moment to unwrap a few of the highlights.



First up, the Santas. Purple is the color of the moment, and Santa is <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/9SDLazy9LtGqqVtP42pgpkGhe3hzCXyfmhSqkXrUpump">apparently</a> taking it in stride. Santa Paws (yes, a cat) appears to be attempting to <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/Ad2REW1U4Y4e4uk6NbKo3HTMVVWxiakardqeCixW5G5a">claw</a> its way to a comeback, while Santa Is Real and Santa Isn’t Real <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/BctT5QCB17dDThQHSc4SHkibmTpFjqpFNY5PMXgppump">duke</a> it <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/BnmT8S7tf4ugPbHQPQwMciebA37PRsmRLUFBe8yJpump">out</a> for festive dominance. Santa wif Hat, meanwhile, is <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/qWxddh85CHDErES6z9crApan64quFd5rdFvLJrApump">rocking</a> an alarming variety of headgear, from classic red to…let’s just call it “experimental.” And what’s this? Could it be a brigade of naked Santa variants storming the chain, ranging from <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/5BZbV7Medi8M9Uh9jhgDWmyvuhPWVcHhbiUHgL4Jpump">cheeky</a> to full-on yuletide <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/8VZgcDXipKiw9abo7xzBhkCBDayid9fdnNBJhM8tpump">nightmare fuel</a>? Aw thanks, frens…you really shouldn’t have.



New holidays are making their debuts too. Ever heard of <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/6Ny7MWJHsfUZjGXpGp6oBE7GbZiL2omoNsmcpM1Spump">Rizzmas</a>? <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/GWedrsv8XtWrULEBUpPGnD1kLVK4sCLpP6j7DC28pump">Hawktuahnukkah</a>? <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/7nh8Jt94taUKjaPS7whDMMhptJv7JuVxwBwVdaLjpump">Chrismahanukwanzaka</a>? Me neither, and yet here we are. Degens have made their wish lists <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/EUEqFFL5RSAcFesDDTKnaTdc8xr1FjeDHDcEsPGNpump">loud</a> and <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/4e6dMZqR6g35LZt6JRmNxmMv23obCY79ugyAH8tbpump">clear</a> with aspirational coins like “All I Want for Xmas is (1000X)” and “AllIWANTforXmasIsAMillionBucks.” Ho ho hodl. Oh, and the snowmen…my goodness, the snowmen. They’ve outdone themselves. Frosty the Dough Man — because nothing says “the season of giving” like <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/Gw6ma4qYuVVoh5nJwRyNe6RReQifhPAyb6FaCVEHpump">hoarding</a> bags of cash — is joined by the very <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/4k9312MFLHfesDKJsvBuav5V6PhLpNQnKJk4T75Epump">swol</a> Abdominal Snowman (you read that right), an alarmingly handsome-Squidward-esque <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/DqtMxZrb1xPaQ3c4i91KmuMd1Te2Unz66HBTYJ6ipump">Mewing</a> Snowman, and the ever popular extra <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/BGTD6zabrU8JJLVc4UqcjYLkVgL8YyKRohGNrFjCsLdX">thicc</a> Gyatt Snowman, among <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/F7JH44xQfPs68aanfMmkMmiTiP1wdkpJ2rGwMcrspump">many</a>, <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/7GsA6qpzN4betGAxKbLy9rQQyA93wbuYMKJi7HNUpump">many</a> <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/4zWYsX4H8zxqYePxinujqdfefNV6eggQRt2Gxokkpump">others</a>.



It only gets weirder. There are memecoins featuring <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/4R5V41w48QBQPZzsiC1rTY8suwR5QAN6okF4cGSSpump">homicidal</a> Christmas trees, an unfortunate P. Diddy <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/6YhZH5n535JQtvr2gtaSdG7d7CaG5LE8uhZyvtZpump">made</a> of gingerbread, Biden and Trump (both dressed as Santa) <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/Kd1LyKjL1FzC2753DL2xAchZ5H4CtR3axeiDacdpump">kissing</a> under the mistletoe, and a truly <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/JCDPZiVgphpcPTPCSqPcpcYf74kXpNCt6RKsLpdSpump">inexplicable</a> Jesus made of shrimp (called Shresus, obviously).



And then there’s the Grinch. Solana devs can’t get enough of Dr. Seuss’ <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/BaoNW4ydc7QBwCzdRNSumftiWoqo8PX3q3cahbLJpump">iconic</a> green grouch. Grinch Mona Lisa? <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/Gi7qCJZdwe6UDqvvuBqKdReFknAGgdWZfzERsecepump">Check</a>. Super Saiyan Grinch? <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/A5tpN8MvyKDkTysw8gd8cdziGsxTqhMLfBGGE8Jgpump">Why not</a>? Grinch Hawktuah? <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/8GVnJfdtw1wZqpsyWe75wueqVErtts3j1GXo36T3pump">Sure</a>. If it’s a meme, it’s minting. Finally, if the cold weather is keeping you from touching grass, don’t worry — you can always <a href="https://pump.fun/coin/EyfuBVZPrXEvpvc3fC4CTQ4xTgWfbHH8dLijaz22pump">Touch Snow</a>.



From all of us at Lightspeed: Happy holidays, Solana fam!



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Holiday memecoin mayhem!

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those who celebrate. Kwanzaa kicks off tomorrow too.



While Santa’s elves worked hard in the holiday lead-up, bitcoin miners were busy raising money for different purposes.&nbsp;



We touched on this <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-miner-convertible-note-raises">phenomenon</a> earlier this month. Bitdeer noted proceeds from its convertible senior notes offering would go toward datacenter expansion and mining rig development. Marathon and Riot Platforms have signaled the route of using raised capital to buy more BTC.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;



More recent announcements from two other segment players continue to highlight that not all BTC miners agree on the best way to spend the capital they secure.



Less than a week ago, Hut 8 touted its purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million (avg. price of ~$101,710). Two days earlier, CleanSpark CFO Gary Vecchiarelli noted his company was choosing not to pay such a price for BTC.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Very pleased to incorporate this instrument into our capital stack and strategy. Instead of buying bitcoin at prices over $100k, we are investing in our ability to mine bitcoin at a cost under $40k. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24CLSK&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$CLSK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> <a href="https://t.co/TZsn0jqayD">https://t.co/TZsn0jqayD</a>&mdash; Gary A. Vecchiarelli (@GaryVec) <a href="https://twitter.com/GaryVec/status/1869137584343150638?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



I followed up with Vecchiarelli. He told me the company is “laser focused on producing bitcoin from our mining operations at a significant discount to the spot price.” The marginal cost to produce each coin last quarter was roughly $36,250, he explained.&nbsp;



The company’s main 2025 growth priority is reaching a hash rate of 50 EH/s as soon as possible, while also growing its digital asset management group to manage its bitcoin treasury (9,297 BTC, as of Nov. 30).&nbsp;



As Hut 8 buys more BTC, Marathon Digital has used capital <a href="https://x.com/MARAHoldings/status/1869729480211664974">from convertible notes</a> to boost its BTC holdings to 44,394 BTC, as of Dec. 18.&nbsp;



“We are happy to be different [from] those companies,” Vecchiarelli said, adding that CleanSpark’s healthy margins allow the company to build its balance sheet holdings “in a durable fashion.”



Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot made clear to me the company’s strategic bitcoin reserve is “a complement, not a substitute, to our core operating strategy, which prioritizes disciplined, fundamentals-driven growth.”



The miner doesn’t have explicit price levels at which it would totally rule out buying BTC, Genoot added — but is “extremely sensitive to valuation extremes and [optimizes] for risk-adjusted returns.”



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BTC miners spend differently — here’s why 

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Starting next year, the SEC will operate with a smaller team of commissioners while we wait for the Senate to approve President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees.&nbsp;



SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda, both Republicans, are the only sitting commissioners who will remain with the agency after Inauguration Day. After SEC Chair Gary Gensler <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">departs</a>, how the agency approaches the crypto industry should see a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">big shift</a>, according to Peirce.&nbsp;



“We have a big toolkit,” Peirce said earlier this month during an appearance at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit.&nbsp;



“We&#8217;ve always gravitated toward enforcement in this area as our tool of choice,” she added. “I think when you see new commission changes and the composition changes, then the mix of cases can change as well.”



The nature of federal agencies means that some — or most, in the SEC’s case — policy discussions happen behind closed doors, Uyeda added.&nbsp;



“That&#8217;s why we have the Administrative Procedure Act, to allow the public to comment on regulation,” he said. “That&#8217;s our accountability for the American public to provide that transparency.”&nbsp;



In cases where agency staff issue guidance that differs from SEC rules (for example <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-committee-resolution-against-sab121">SAB 121</a>), there is no public comment period.&nbsp;



In the case of SAB 121, both chambers of Congress elected to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-gensler-sec-overturn-sab-121">overturn</a> the policy, which states that digital asset custodians should report a liability and “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-staff-call-for-crypto-entities-to-show-liability-on-balance-sheet">corresponding assets</a>” on their balance sheets. President Biden ultimately <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-fails-to-override-anti-sab121-veto">vetoed</a> the resolution, however.&nbsp;



Uyeda looks forward to the agency providing more opportunities for public input.&nbsp;



“Writing the shift is hard because we are pretty far down this road,” Peirce said.&nbsp;



Addressing the crypto industry directly, she added, “this is going to require a lot of hard work from us and from you to get back on the right foot, but I think we can do it.”



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SEC commissioners say agency may move away from enforcement actions 

Macauley Peterson

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For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts have clung to the narrative that some of its 21 million supply is irretrievably “lost,” forever locked in wallets with forgotten keys. These “lost” coins have been viewed as a permanent reduction in the circulating supply, making bitcoin even scarcer than its fixed cap implies. But what if that scarcity <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoins-21-million-limit-myth">isn’t as definitive</a> as we think?



The rise of quantum computing and breakthroughs in cryptographic techniques have sparked speculation that no bitcoin is truly “lost.” As computational power evolves, the security underpinning bitcoin’s oldest key pairs — generated using what may soon be outdated cryptography — could be compromised.



This isn’t an immediate concern, as Bitcoin developers are well-equipped to implement protocol upgrades that shield active wallets. However, wallets abandoned long ago — like Satoshi Nakamoto’s — and whose owners are unlikely to migrate them to new encryption schemes, could become targets.



Imagine quantum computing so advanced that “key miners” can derive private keys from public ones, effectively “cracking” these forgotten wallets. This would bring dormant bitcoin back into circulation — not through the intent of the original owners, but rather new actors exploiting advances on the periphery of technology.



Far from being FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), this idea reframes <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-billionth-transaction-network-evolution">Bitcoin’s evolution</a>. The network&#8217;s adaptability ensures it remains robust in a quantum future, but it also challenges the idea that its circulating supply will permanently exclude lost coins. As Nic Carter has noted, Bitcoin’s security model doubles as a $400 billion “bug bounty” driving quantum advancements.



The treasure hunting of old wallets might one day become a competitive market, reshaping the narrative of bitcoin’s scarcity. In this future, “lost” bitcoin doesn’t stay lost — it merely waits for someone to unlock it, keeping the promise of 21 million circulating coins intact.



Whether that promise itself can be kept in the future is also an open question, but that’s a topic for another day.



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The myth of ‘lost bitcoin’ in the age of quantum computing

Katherine Ross

“Next year is gonna really show everyday people what crypto is for,” Hashdex co-founder Bruno Caratori confidently told me last week.&nbsp;



And, no, he didn’t just mean bitcoin. He added that this next year could be the “dawning of the age … of a crypto beyond bitcoin.”



A lot of Caratori’s thinking comes from the fact that stablecoins have seen such a breakthrough to mainstream attention, as has a lot of the real-world asset offerings (if you include stablecoins in that mix, though I’m not so sure David would).



RWA onchain totals out at nearly $14 billion, with stablecoin value topping $200 billion&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1060" height="670" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png" alt="" class="wp-image-95535" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=1060 1060w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=407 407w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=413 413w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=346 346w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-8.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1060px) 100vw, 1060px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Here’s a look at total RWA value with stablecoins</figcaption></figure>



Caratori noted that stablecoins get an upper hand because they’re “easy enough” to understand.&nbsp;



If you were to ask Caratori for some predictions — and, dear reader, you best bet I did — he’d tell you that he thinks we could see “everyday transactions” in the US using stablecoins starting next year.&nbsp;



Part of this is due to the potential for Circle to enter the public markets in 2025. If you remember, we recently talked about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ipos-bringing-back-retail">what a Circle IPO could look like</a>.&nbsp;



If we see them enter the public stage, it’ll be the “most significant IPO in crypto since Coinbase.”



“This is a player that&#8217;s going to get a lot of notoriety. First of all, it&#8217;s going to get resources to invest in the ecosystem. And even what they&#8217;ve been doing so far, initiatives such as integrating into Stripe may be the major gateway for online commerce. [With] initiatives like these, they&#8217;ll just be better resourced with not just money, but the credibility that comes with establishing the relationships,” he explained.



If we see adoption across crypto, then Caratori thinks we could see the end of the boom-bust cycle. Controversial, I know.



“There&#8217;s this widespread consensus in crypto that it behaves in this four-year cycle, and that it&#8217;s been like this forever, and it&#8217;s going to continue to be like this. And that 2025 will be the year of exuberance, and that will inevitably be followed by a big 70-80% drawdown. I see how this was true before [but] I think that real adoption by governments, by big players — such as the BlackRocks of the world — [stabilize crypto].”



“So I don&#8217;t expect this to be a big exuberance and then a bust cycle after and again. The first applications are really going to become real for the public,” Caratori said.



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Crypto could see the ‘dawning of a new age’ in 2025

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Let’s take a moment to reflect on this year’s biggest memecoin highs and lows.&nbsp;



Some coins delivered huge gains, stuffing stockings with profits, while others <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hawk-memecoin-launch-fail">crashed</a> and burned, earning lumps of coal. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest winners and losers in the space — no sugar-coating included.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Political tokens: Naughty or nice?</h3>



Jeo Boden, parodying US President Joe Biden, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/jeo-boden">surged</a> 1,548% from $0.06307 to $1.04 before crashing 99.74% to $0.00274. Meanwhile, the Donald Trump inspired MAGA <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/maga">skyrocketed</a> 4,170% from $0.41 to $17.51 but dropped 91.7% to $1.45, following a similar fate.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Parent Trap</h3>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vitalik-wrong-crypto-dumb-memecoins">Iggy Azalea</a>&#8216;s MOTHER <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/mother-iggy">sparkled</a> with a 4,798% climb from $0.004709 to $0.2306, but dropped 79% to $0.04837. Unshaken, Azalea has doubled down on her token’s future with Motherland, an online casino project that could breathe new life into the MOTHER token in 2025.



Not to be outdone, Andrew Tate <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/daddy-tate">introduced</a> the pseudo-affiliated DADDY, a memecoin designed to counter MOTHER’s success and “flip it for the patriarchy.” DADDY surged 487% from $0.04917 to $0.2886 before succumbing to a 76% loss to now sit at $0.0684.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A lot of hot air</h3>



Fartcoin <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/fartcoin">blew</a> onto the scene in late 2024, climbing 3,052% from $0.04067671 to $1.28 and holding steady at $1.25.&nbsp;



Similarly, GOAT (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-goatse-memecoin">Goatseus Maximus</a>) <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/goatseus-maximus">paired</a> edgy humor with <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-ai-bot-goat-memecoin">viral AI marketing</a>, surging 3,002% from $0.04354 to $1.35 before settling at $0.508.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">It’s snowing cats and dogs</h3>



Popcat <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/popcat">exploded</a> 14,400% from $0.01413 to $2.05 before settling at $0.7912. Cat in a Dog&#8217;s World (MEW) <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/mew">grew</a> 1,312% from $0.0009121 to $0.01288 but fell 51% to $0.006353. MEW’s attempt to challenge the dominance of dog-themed tokens injected some friendly rivalry into the memecoin ecosystem.



Bonk, Solana’s first <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bonkbot-volumes-rise">dog-themed</a> coin, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bonk">climbed</a> a mere 210% from $0.0000188 to $0.00005825. In comparison, Dogwifhat (WIF) <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat">outperformed</a>, rising 2,292% from $0.201808 to $4.83 before settling 56% lower at $2.12.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Viral hits and legal misses</h3>



ChillGuy, based on the “Just a Chill Guy” meme, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/just-a-chill-guy">soared</a> 10,789% from $0.00604 to $0.6575 but dropped 71% to $0.1898. Artist Phillip Banks condemned the token, pursuing legal action over its use.



PNUT, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/peanut-the-squirrel">launched</a> after the viral euthanization of Peanut the Squirrel, surged 7,554% from $0.03187 to $2.44 but fell 71% to $0.6981. The token’s trajectory was mired in controversy, as Peanut’s owner condemned its creation and sought to shut it down.



Moodeng, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/moo-deng">inspired</a> by a viral <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/memecoin-moodeng-market-cap-soars">Thai baby hippo</a>, rose 4,300% from $0.01545 to $0.6804 but has since dropped 62% to $0.2576.



For every coin that soared, there were 10 that crashed, proving again and again that memecoins giveth and memecoins taketh away.&nbsp;



So, whether you’re toasting to the winners or mourning the lumps of coal in your portfolio, just remember that chaos is the only constant in crypto — and it doesn’t care one bit if you’ve been naughty or nice.



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Memes and madness in 2024

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As we approach what will undoubtedly be a new era for federal crypto regulation, this state watchdog head has some advice for companies: Start engaging now.&nbsp;



“Never surprise your regulator,” New York Department of Financial Services Superintendent Adrienne Harris said at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit earlier this month.&nbsp;



“We are by nature risk-adverse people,&#8221; she added. &#8220;We don’t like to be surprised, so come in and talk to us proactively.” 



Waiting until there is already an enforcement action underway to meet with regulators is a mistake, Harris said. Companies should be having these conversations before they even file applications, she added.&nbsp;



The comments come as New York continues to be a leader in state-level regulation. It was the first state to design a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/comptroller-audits-nydfs-bitlicense">“BitLicense” program</a> in 2014. The policy, which requires businesses conducting digital asset activities to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ny-authorities-more-fees-crypto-companies">register</a> with the DFS, came into effect the following year.&nbsp;



“Foreign jurisdictions and Congress have been for the last several years really borrowing from the New York framework as now it&#8217;s the gold standard,” Harris said.&nbsp;



New York’s BitLicense may have been received poorly by the industry at first (at least 10 companies initially left the state when the regulations were announced), but the regulatory framework shows the DFS is committed to allowing investors to access the markets they want, Harris said.&nbsp;



“It&#8217;s not our job as a regulator to decide what the market wants or doesn&#8217;t want, right? These instruments are here,” she added. “This technology is here. It&#8217;s our job to protect consumers, protect markets and ensure responsible growth in the industry.”&nbsp;



While President-elect Donald Trump has not commented on whether he would grant more authority to states to oversee the crypto industry, his administration’s efforts to shrink the size of several federal agencies, including the SEC, could ultimately have that effect.



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New York continues to lead on state crypto regulations 

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US spot ether products turned five months old yesterday.&nbsp;



But consistent (and substantial) net inflows only started coming after the election. First, a look at the flows by month:&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Month</td><td>Net Flows</td></tr><tr><td>July 23-31</td><td>-$484 million</td></tr><tr><td>August</td><td>+$6 million</td></tr><tr><td>September</td><td>-$46 million</td></tr><tr><td>October</td><td>+$43 million</td></tr><tr><td>November</td><td>+$1.1 billion</td></tr><tr><td>December 1-20</td><td>+$1.8 billion</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



To summarize: A flood of net money exited Grayscale’s higher-priced Ethereum Trust (ETHE) in the first few days after it <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-eth-trust-ethe-filing-vaneck-proshares">converted</a> to an ETF. The other funds’ inflows could not fully offset those.&nbsp;



Then there were three months of rather flat flows. Industry watchers attributed this in part to the need for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/education-required-to-spur-eth-etf-outflows">more education</a> about ETH — an asset with a value prop more difficult to grasp than BTC.



Donald Trump’s election win spurred <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-impacts-since-election-outcome">crypto market euphoria</a>. While bitcoin has hit several new all-time high price levels, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/when-will-eth-break-all-time-high">ETH hasn’t</a>.&nbsp;



CoinShares research associate Luke Nolan <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/when-will-eth-break-all-time-high">previously told me</a> he’s eyeing February or March for ETH to hit a new high — as long as ether ETF flows remain strong.&nbsp;



BTC has gained more institutional attention than ETH because of its easier-to-understand digital gold narrative ($36 billion of net inflows for bitcoin ETFs vs. $2.3 billion for ETH products).&nbsp;



Then there’s the fact that ETH also faces competition from other layer-1s like solana, Nolan added. Several fund groups have proposed ETFs that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">would hold SOL</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“Ethereum developers have taken a long-term view as to improving the protocol whilst Solana has very much focused on capturing attention and demand now,” Nolan said. “They are both valid approaches that each attend to their own use cases and niches.”



Keeping an eye on crypto ETF flows will help us understand investor sentiment toward each asset — whether it be BTC, ETH or others that could soon make their way into an ETF wrapper.



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An end-of-year ETH ETF check-in

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BOB (“Build on Bitcoin”), a hybrid layer-2 solution leveraging Bitcoin and Ethereum, has taken a significant step forward by successfully testing its first BitVM-powered Bitcoin bridge prototype. Developed in partnership with Fiamma, the prototype in production will deliver trust-minimized BTC bridging. Doing so marks a milestone in the chain’s scaling — with bitcoin, the asset, at the center.



BitVM bridges <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research/issue/post_d08feb9f-1ecf-4108-85fe-878d48edd78d">stand out</a> from existing solutions like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/wbtc">wBTC</a> or <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-wrapped-bitcoin-competitor-cbbtc">cbBTC</a> — which rely on centralized entities — and from semi-trusted models. By contrast, BitVM <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-rollups-closer-than-expected">leverages</a> a fraud-proof system, where BTC deposits and withdrawals are secured so long as one participant acts honestly.&nbsp;



“Bitcoin security and trust-minimized BTC bridging are the two most important pillars of Bitcoin L2s,” said Alexei Zamyatin, BOB co-founder and BitVM2 contributor.



The bridge prototype is expected to be deployed on BOB’s testnet in early 2025, followed by a mainnet rollout after audits. Additionally, BOB announced plans to integrate with bitcoin staking service <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-babylon-btc-staking-deposits">Babylon</a> with an aim to establish itself as a Bitcoin-secured network with Bitcoin finality.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Signaling for Bitcoin scaling preferences</h2>



The open Wiki-style <a href="https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Covenants_support">signaling forum</a> on Bitcoin soft fork upgrades reflects the growing need for community consensus on covenants like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-rollups-closer-than-expected">OP_CAT</a> and OP_CTV. Developers, including Zamyatin, have weighed in on proposals. For instance, Zamyatin has marked OP_CTV as “Weak,” while signaling “Evaluating” for OP_CAT, thus indicating areas where more discussion is required.



The forum is valuable because it collects rationales in one place, moving discussions away from social media fights, according to Zamyatin. “It makes it easier to evaluate proposals, summarize pros and cons, and have meaningful discussions,” he <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-zk-rollups-debate">told Blockworks</a>.



The signaling process has revealed divided opinions: While OP_CTV has garnered moderate consensus, OP_CAT and others remain contentious. As Zamyatin noted, achieving broad agreement will only grow harder as Bitcoin adoption increases.



For BOB and the wider Bitcoin ecosystem, these upgrades could eventually enable more advanced capabilities, including native zk-verifiers — a vital step toward scaling Bitcoin securely.



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Bitcoin’s $100K milestone reflections, what’s next

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



In the mid-16th century, Nostradamus made 942 predictions in eight years.



He’d <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/10/why-nostradamus-predictions-are-still-winning-converts">supposedly</a> dictated every one as a poem to his secretary. All while hallucinating on heroic doses of nutmeg.&nbsp;



Sadly, I don’t have a secretary. But why should that stop me?



Here are five crypto prophecies that will totally come true in 2025. And if not, they can easily be rehashed for hundreds of years, just like Nostradamus’s.



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>AI chatbots will gamify flash loan attacks.</li>
</ol>



We rarely hear about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pump-fun-flash-loan-attack">flash loan attacks</a> anymore.&nbsp;



Apparently, the US Department of Justice <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-convicted-110m-cryptocurrency-scheme">largely</a> put a stop to them after they nabbed Avi “it’s just a profitable trading strategy” Eisenberg last year.



That is until some diabolical edgelord trains an AI model to trawl the dingiest illiquid corners of DeFi for potential targets.&nbsp;



After all, who’s to blame: The prompt engineer or the LLM with a crypto wallet?



<ol start="2" class="wp-block-list">
<li>Either a bitcoin ETF or a nation-state will be hacked</li>
</ol>



Never mind that most ETFs have abstracted the actual handling of coins far away from their own liability — presumably replaced by a WhatsApp chat with a Coinbase Custody support representative.



Next year will mark a return of monumental crypto hacks.&nbsp;



It’s indeed been a while since we saw one. Maybe the Ronin hack was the last hack that really, really hurt.&nbsp;



Be on the lookout for a nation-state or ETF issuer to fumble the bag, perhaps by falling for a North Korean phishing email for a phony Chick-fil-A coupon.



<ol start="3" class="wp-block-list">
<li>The FTC will sue a memecoin</li>
</ol>



You’ve probably heard that the next SEC chair should be more friendly to crypto.&nbsp;



But that’s just the SEC. There are still more than a dozen US agencies that could probably still pull some real boomer moves next year.



Enter the Federal Trade Commission. They’ve gone after crypto companies in the past, including Celsius and Voyager, and also pushed federal cases against fraudsters peddling fake investment schemes.



I’d watch for the FTC to characterize a random memecoin as such and start suing. Gensler is leaving a void that only another short-sighted regulator can fill.



<ol start="4" class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crypto lotteries will emerge as public goods</li>
</ol>



Crypto already has its own pseudo-lottery systems: memecoins.



If you’re really into buying Powerball and Mega Millions, why not buy a random pump.fun memecoin every week and hope to one day strike it big (as long as you can time the top).



So, it’s about time someone — perhaps from the very public-good-centric Ethereum space — codes an unstoppable permissionless crypto lottery that pays out once a week.



And before you point out that random number generators on the blockchain are always a bad idea, <a href="https://www.cloudflare.com/en-gb/learning/ssl/lava-lamp-encryption/">study lava lamps</a>.



<ol start="5" class="wp-block-list">
<li>IRL livestreamers will adopt prediction markets</li>
</ol>



To suggest that livestreamers like Speed and KSI would mint their own memecoins (or would they be social tokens?) is too obvious.



Calling it now: A major streamer will figure out how to utilize prediction markets to crowdsource their content.



Case in point: Speed’s <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@houseofhighlights/video/7438400472920198446">suggestion</a> that he’ll run sprints at the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles could be a prediction market. And all his viewers could bet whether that’s the case — or push him toward any other challenge for that matter.



Mass adoption through Twitch starts in 2025.



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5 crypto predictions for 2025

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Marginfi co-founder Edgar Pavlovsky <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/11/marginfi-leader-resigns-on-fiery-day-for-major-solana-lender">departed</a> suddenly from the Solana DeFi project in April.&nbsp;



The split wasn’t exactly amicable. “I don&#8217;t agree with the way things have been done internally or externally,” Pavlovsky <a href="https://x.com/edgarpavlovsky/status/1778175476118302775">wrote</a> on X at the time.&nbsp;



Now, eight months later, Pavlovsky is a core contributor to Paladin, a Solana client meant to protect validators from so-called sandwich attacks while helping them “earn more in block rewards.”&nbsp;



Around the same time, Temporal, a crypto research shop with multiple marginfi-linked members, began advertising “Nozomi,” a proprietary quic client partially meant to prevent sandwich attacks.&nbsp;



Temporal is legally distinct from mrgn and marginfi. Temporal said most of its staff never worked at marginfi.



A Temporal researcher I spoke to was critical of the project being worked on by his former colleague. The two products aren’t the same, by both parties’ accounts, but they are both focused on the same niche. There’s one notable difference though — Pavlovsky’s Paladin has a token, while marginfi, controversially, has yet to debut a native coin.&nbsp;



Temporal’s Nozomi infrastructure is built to land transactions as fast as possible. It also prevents sandwich attacks by only sending transactions to “whitelisted” Solana validators who are known not to attack users. The project pitches this as a way to democratize trading.&nbsp;



“We have a ton of experience from our trading arm getting the best execution for what we want to do,” Jakob Povsic, a developer at Temporal, said. Temporal is “getting this level of sophistication for basically anyone.”



Paladin, on the other hand, is a fork of the Jito-Solana client that identifies and drops sandwich attacks from transaction bundles and helps Solana validators prioritize transactions with high priority fees attached, Pavlovsky told me. Access to Paladin validators will eventually be gated with the yet-to-launch PAL <a href="https://x.com/paladin_solana/status/1870167984540626968">token</a>.&nbsp;



I asked Pavlovsky if building a product with similar anti-sandwiching aims to his ex-colleagues at Temporal makes him want to compete more aggressively.



“No, man, they’re like my children,” Pavlovsky said with a chuckle. “I’m stoked for them to win, stoked for them to build.” He said blockchain infrastructure creators tend to have too much of a winner-take-all mentality when, in fact, multiple businesses can succeed at the same time.



Povsic showed less bonhomie. “I applaud them for going after sandwiching since [it’s] a big problem, but their approach is naive and very [self-serving] from what we are seeing,” he said of Paladin. Povsic added Paladin “arbitrarily” blocks some transactions based on a wide net of criteria, and sophisticated players will still be able to pull off sandwiches. And “forcing” its own token into the equation made matters worse for Povsic.



Pavlovsky responded to the criticism by saying that its anti-sandwich whitelist is “obviously systematic, not arbitrary.”



“[P]aladin is designed with sophisticated players in mind (and being tested comprehensively against sandwichers on the whole network). [W]e&#8217;re always happy to discuss tradeoffs,” Pavlovsky said in a text.



“[We] think [Paladin] is extractive and would rather focus on open-source initiatives rather than sending a % of priority fees to [Bloxroute], who own 20% of the token supply. Nozomi is quite different in that it&#8217;s simply a product to help land transactions fast,&#8221; Temporal partner and mrgn research co-founder Ben Coverston said.&nbsp;



The PAL token is an interesting part of the equation. Marginfi frequently draws criticism for its so-called points program that tracks user contribution to the platform. Points are frequently used to allocate token airdrops, but marginfi is one of the last major Solana DeFi protocols not to release a token. Pavlovsky never mentioned the lack of a marginfi token in his departure post in April 2024.&nbsp;



I asked him if frustration at the platform not launching a token contributed to his leaving. “[I] am pro token and think the right time to ship one was [Q4] 2023,” Pavlovsky said in response.



Updated Dec. 23, 2024: Modified headline. 



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Mrgn’s co-founder built a new product. Some ex-colleagues aren’t fans.

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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President-elect Donald Trump appears to be working down his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">crypto promises</a> list via another personnel decision.&nbsp;



Trump said Sunday that Bo Hines will serve as executive director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets. David Sacks, the PayPal co-founder who <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">Trump tapped</a> to be the US government’s AI and crypto czar earlier this month, will chair this group.



Hines will work with Sacks “to foster innovation and growth in the digital assets space, while ensuring industry leaders have the resources they need to succeed,” Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113698639577293090?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">wrote</a> on Truth Social.



“Together, they will create an environment where this industry can flourish, and remain a cornerstone of our nation&#8217;s technological advancement,” he added.



A former NC State (and Yale) football player, Hines sought to represent North Carolina’s 13th Congressional district in 2022, but lost that election to Democrat Wiley Nickel. He launched a campaign in December 2023 to represent the state’s 6th Congressional district — endorsing Trump that same month before posting this to X in January:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Cryptocurrency is the epitome of individual empowerment in finance. We don’t need the government stepping in and slapping burdensome regulations on financial innovation. This new sector needs the freedom to grow organically. Decentralized finance is the way of the future if…&mdash; Bo Hines (@BoHines) <a href="https://twitter.com/BoHines/status/1747379326465474698?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Trump had referenced a US crypto council in July during <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQZAOK24IQ">his address</a> at the Bitcoin 2024 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-2024-nashville-recap">conference</a> in Nashville. He said it was something he would assemble “immediately” before asking for a show of hands who wanted to be on it. The crowd roared.



The then-presidential candidate said the council’s task of designing crypto regulatory guidance would get done in 100 days. We’ll have to monitor that.&nbsp;



Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-industry-jockeys-seats-trumps-promised-council-2024-11-21/">reported</a> last month that people at crypto companies Ripple, Kraken, Circle, Paradigm and a16z were among those wanting a seat at that table.



Trump’s ongoing engagement with the industry seems to show his pro-crypto rhetoric was not just lip service. A few days before that Reuters story ran, Trump <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-commerce-dept-leader">nominated</a> crypto-friendly Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick to lead the Department of Commerce.



The soon-to-be president also just met with Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek last week about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-crypto-ceo-btc-reserve-meeting">crypto-related appointments</a> and a bitcoin reserve.



Those congratulating Hines on X yesterday included crypto bigwigs <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-salesmen-michael-saylor-larry-fink">Michael Saylor</a> and Fred Thiel — leaders of two companies (MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital) which own roughly 490,000 BTC combined.



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