Equilibria Finance

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions,&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>.



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
&#8220;Just because I don&#8217;t care doesn&#8217;t mean I don&#8217;t understand.&#8221;



— Marge Simpson
</blockquote>



Financial markets are forward-looking, even though humans usually are not.



It’s fundamentally what makes investing difficult: &#8220;100% of the information you have about any business reflects the past,” the legendary Bill Miller notes. “And 100% of the value of that business depends on the future.&#8221;



That’s logical enough — but also kind of confusing: How can stock prices remain so unconcerned about the future when, like this week, war breaks out in the Middle East?



In times like this, our natural instinct is to assume “the market” doesn’t understand the news we’re watching.



When stock prices appear to be under-reacting, we think everyone else must be wrong, or asleep at the wheel, or not paying attention.



This, combined with our evolutionary bias toward action, is what makes so many investors act like traders. The fight-or-flight instinct we learned in the ancient Rift Valley has evolved into a trade-or-sell instinct in the modern stock market.



But we should resist that impulse because Marge Simpson is right: The market understands what’s going on. It just doesn&#8217;t care.



“Geopolitics doesn’t normally matter much for long-run market performance,” Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen wrote in a note to clients this week.



Data from <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/06/markets-are-forward-looking.html">LPL Financial</a> appears to back that up, demonstrating that geopolitical shocks impact markets far less than most anyone would predict in the moment.



Even the worst events are typically followed by full market recoveries within “only a few weeks to a couple of months.”



Yet, we insist on confidently predicting the dire investing consequences of every unfortunate event that comes along.



How often do you hear an investor say, “I don’t know”?



Not very. But we did hear it from the world’s best informed market watcher this week.



On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell <a href="https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1935436244890087503">explained</a> the FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged by cautioning that, &#8220;we haven’t been through a situation like this and think we have to be humble about our ability to forecast it.”



He was talking about the economic situation, but that’s probably good advice for life ones too: <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/think-act-be/201907/how-often-do-your-worries-actually-come-true">Studies suggest</a> that most of the things we worry about don’t really matter.



As for markets, global prosperity has trended relentlessly upwards for decades despite our best efforts to disrupt it with wars, short-term thinking and economically illiterate policymaking.



So I find uneventful market weeks like this one reassuring.



When markets seem surprisingly calm, it’s probably not indifference or ignorance, but perspective.



Let’s check the charts.



Nothing ever happens: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcjocTjhL0Ms05A12TGJXSzquqaa-A1YQyj0evZPTC6th1HtyYZAH3WQOxEG4aoYb2unh9mDUJoOp5ayk-1YMruyt3h_VVREc79d6QYGrrxCAmP7TuQxEUmZNBOb8wq2Y7yz_Ohig?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" width="624" height="435">



It feels like the world has had a tumultuous month, but you’d never know from financial markets: BTC, gold, stocks and bonds have all been sideways.



Expectations re-coupling with reality?



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfypM0QW599motUHNXWaNMzGM-iTAF5IaYbGM5t7Dh3Eadc9cB-yFOLd9q5Cwfvt9Cgj9BihP8HCFdOqb8AVVEY3JWuZby4y8WMa9BAnXCRCwejHcjKZx8fkrRdjYuRA44oZD5eXg?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



The “soft” economic data (i.e., sentiment-based surveys) has rebounded back to where the “hard” data (i.e., actual economic activity) is. The hard data is trending down, but in the short-term at least, the economic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty has not been nearly as bad as expected.



Long-term, the news is usually good:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeLOzMdghOauEVdqkPtrFMQ0M7QDC63oUZalbEvmm0SEXBETRWkPsHL2aebi-OvDaHOjMOU5HgXGMGY0k-UGzaNuhlrHc66fNyehyUN8Xk_CosYWs_F2FG6AqxWcxzbJb2RU1ip?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



Scott Grannis <a href="http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com">notes</a> that the real (inflation-adjusted) net worth of US households has increased by 3.6% per year for decades. “The US economy is an astounding engine of growth and prosperity,” he concludes.



The news aside, things are unusually good right now:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcP7OPDHTI0GdYhbkI_RDHm3O08p4dYDd1d_69PvNHIm7DRymzJoNm90Wmrd_6Nv6k2HBP-r0Q-j8fvEUCvWMA5cj4fW4peWYPDF-fhJXkgs_ekqBLwr_39t1ZBdUAkx5kyL_pulw?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



Ed Yardeni characterizes the current mix of inflation and employment as a rare instance of economic “nirvana”: “The history of economic nirvanas with both inflation subdued at around 2.0% year over year and the economy at full employment (i.e., with the jobless rate at 4.0%) shows eight such transcendental experiences since the 1950s, including the current one.”



The class of 2025 is not feeling it, however:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdRGg3Q0XoZiE6VzMkxuW4ZXrCM8ZAObAPBpvc-x-lrHqlSE1oSTLVosiC9fGv1MZeW2iV3SPxBRbeDTbpQ2sx9kYop_k-mc0Vgs2FlAIV27HbaqtmhKrzWFUaWfB4YgeazONS57g?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



2025 might not be the worst year ever to graduate college — but it is probably the worst relative to how good the economy otherwise is. That might be because AI is doing the entry-level jobs now. Or, as Paul Krugman <a href="https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-times-for-college-graduates">believes</a>, because political uncertainty has caused employers to stop hiring. Or something else, it’s too early to say for sure. But if you’re in school, consider staying there.



Off to a slow start:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfivkwW9FT6kY5F_Pt_GgM4wqtqKSicCCE0gqgNRuqMlnnp1Q_m5B4cR3iZnMUmRNYYHoWsMn-WBYkfrwvs4JEoWyzNveoWMMfRu9weE41QpvXqgkVt_WYs5rQtUT52Cr7lRJ2hNA?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



Recent graduates are 3x more likely to be unemployed than the cohort aged between 35-44, which is probably even worse news than it sounds. Krugman notes that the consequences of early unemployment last “basically forever,” citing an NBER study that found that “those who join the workforce in a downturn have lower long-term earnings, higher rates of disability, fewer marriages, less successful spouses and fewer children.” Ugh.



You can’t see it in the data, though:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfmfuBG9PhMWyMjMXhTgG9VMg7XNOfBmV8wkg7Fx4yfuDzLK-WStxdy5oPDm7SrAxZKvM2K0wKMstECiKdWY_I9xhKliXoC9c3xgnT9rL79UDDDYFFzSA0p9yWmTlnRJpP_p4R8-Q?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees Q2 growth coming in at a robust 3.4%. This makes the consensus FOMC projection of 1.4% growth for the full year seem unnecessarily gloomy. Worse yet, the FOMC’s elevated inflation forecasts make it look like they’re <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/fed-stagflation-trump-tariffs.html">expecting stagflation</a>.



Inflation “forecasting” is getting even closer to guessing:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeDP_96Oaqlu60-Opa4JQ2b0HtUJSLUg8zeH2H91mHr2kbz4X7CIUDjD4Vai2waTfakXd8pLXqq2LSbIxlEZrwUdoyONOZj8UgnFWYz-3L9w-LW1PXWroBvfJLus51zsZEFTwLrMw?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



Torsten Slok <a href="https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=pardot&amp;utm_id=701Dp00000017sOIAQ&amp;utm_campaign=EXT_Daily+Spark">notes</a> that almost a third of the prices going into the CPI at the moment are guesses. This seems likely to get worse, because as Jerome Powell <a href="https://x.com/YahooFinance/status/1935416500136862202">noted</a> this week, layoffs are making it harder for the government to collect economic data — data that’s &#8220;a real benefit to the general public&#8221; because it ensures people &#8220;have the best possible understanding of what&#8217;s happening in the economy, and hence, what&#8217;s likely to happen.&#8221; As if that wasn’t hard enough already.



There are ever more investors chasing pretty much the same number of stocks:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfyXuiP4B4j3zjm6nUfFB4Cz8QmXcj58Wty4T2kMLc1tbBtR2-FHXqjTKqeNzAc5b7YuslmhdDCh_dz8td4yZ9Le89mLsptPGaiZK99QCUDcczcptQzKJzYkbb3cLoc5JvPRnIJhg?key=MdB9863qS6m-tBRLwI6GGg" alt=""/></figure>



The US ranks second to Switzerland in average per capita wealth. It fares less well if using the median, but the number of new millionaires is impressive: Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/surging-stocks-helped-us-add-more-than-379-000-millionaires-last-year?cmpid=061925_morningamer&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=250619&amp;utm_campaign=morningamer&amp;embedded-checkout=true">notes</a> that over 379,000 US residents became millionaires last year — more than 1,000 per day!



And we wonder why the market never goes down.



Have a great weekend, understanding readers.



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The Breakdown Newsletter

Friday Charts: The market understands

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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As a card-carrying member of the “nothing ever happens” club, many of my thoughts on whether or not news has been priced-in can be summarized by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/everything_is_priced_in/">this</a> classic Reddit post.&nbsp;



Nevertheless, one of my guests on the Lightpeed podcast this week explained why ETH has been slowly gaining ground on solana — and why he believes that trend may continue.



<a href="https://youtu.be/TUY-_P-9A9s?si=rjFfNy1XZh4dqFEt">I hosted Geoff Kendrick</a>, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, to explain his Solana thesis. Standard Chartered is a relatively large global bank based out of the UK. This Solana report was the bank’s first, in what may be a show of Solana’s growing relevance to institutional investors.&nbsp;



The report is bullish on SOL, offering a price target of $275 by year’s end and a target of $500 by the end 2029, but it predicts that ETH will outperform SOL in the short to medium term. I found this surprising given how bad the vibes surrounding ETH have been in recent months — and how mostly positive things have been in Solana land.&nbsp;



SOL consistently <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/l1">leads</a> ETH in real economic value (a Blockworks Research metric for the tips and fees that measure demand to land transactions on a blockchain) despite Solana having a quarter of Ethereum’s market cap. ETH’s big headwind <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/non-crypto-native-companies-ethereum">is its L2s</a>, which have helped the blockchain scale but may be damaging to ETH’s ability to accrue value since they take on a lot of trading volume, but pay relatively little in fees to Ethereum. Geoff believes the bad vibes surrounding ETH are already “priced in.”



“There was a lot of debate in 2024 about, ‘Do [L2s] add or subtract value?’” Kendrick said. “So, let’s say that a lot of that story has already played out in a relative sense.” He later added: “For Solana, you came off massive multi-year lows post-FTX, had a comeback in 2023 thanks to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-market-impact-solana-memecoins">memecoin activity</a>, but now that memecoin trading is post-peak, Solana may underperform Ethereum in the near term.”



Kendrick argued that the market trades Solana at a discount relative to its economic activity from memecoins because it views memecoin trading as unsustainable. I would note that memecoin activity has proven more sticky than many might have predicted — pump.fun generated $50 million in revenue last month, despite a dip in usage — but we’ll have to see how all of this plays out over time. 



Kendrick’s thesis has been correct over the past month, at least. The ratio of SOL’s price to ETH’s price is <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SOLETH/">down</a> nearly 15%.



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Solana’s price run might stall as ETH gains institutional favor

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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FC Barcelona, the Spanish soccer club Forbes values at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/teams/barcelona/">$5.65 billion</a>, is releasing a wallet for its upcoming NFTs called Barça.Pass as part of its digital strategy.&nbsp;



Anyone with a Barça ID can now claim a wallet and will ultimately be able to use it to create an FC Barcelona avatar NFT, customize the character with official merch, and collect other types of digital items in anticipation of an upcoming FCB mobile racing game.



Crypto infra firm Futureverse set up the <a href="https://www.barcapass.com/">Barça Pass</a>. Futureverse CEO Aaron McDonald told me that the NFT avatars will exist on the gaming-focused L1 blockchain Root and can be equipped with “semi-fungible” wearable digital items. Root is EVM-compatible and uses XRP as its gas token as well as the XRPL XLS-20 NFT standard.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeskw6A0GOdCv2brTn2-JgsOvhES1Z3WYX7PD2ik9yUFV9eKPWM3BL-ERmJLuPxd_M4ZhCYVMw19Bl6JxYkaDVSDwj24Iie_20MIeBJA3EIaPt58qMFetpXs0u9_hfBW509T3lCRw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/></figure>



Wearables will be purchasable via FCB’s Shopify integration, McDonald explained.&nbsp;



Traders will also be able to buy or sell FCB digital items on marketplaces like Tradeverse that are integrated with the Root chain’s ecosystem, and can buy those items with crypto like ROOT or XRP.&nbsp;



Over 11 million Barça IDs had already been created before the launch, according to the <a href="https://www.fcbarcelona.com/en/club/news/4290230/bara-media-launches-barapass-its-first-digital-wallet-to-connect-with-fans-worldwide-in-collaboration-with-futureverse">post</a> from FCB.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXedWTjbZYwto09EPJeLRT3tQIpsOpP50MdpxJRkUUsuqZVYGEJwZJuWApUMCi7Gbg73TF4tSQZbBHCPrjBpwpRYXV-nJ33gk49NfHO6yBJ1ghnvvn4BWcX4CDQMCTKVcXIJ8meqkw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: FC Barcelona image teasing the upcoming avatars.</figcaption></figure>



The wallet won’t just be a wrapper to hold your avatar, though. McDonald told me the Pass will support “a wide range of onchain experiences and applications that developers build.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeYfDHGq4QmaKzk4X_LkCo2H7EqPWix7kgyoodvVPzerpuqsSwRAfDcAoLSh1TbyKsvMzp3m17nvVB_DupllMSviOkxCy3F8OvYTy178ZwO-i3lVBC6C2y84_UzpsElDlYavS67Jw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: Teaser image of FCB’s anticipated racing game.</figcaption></figure>



FCB has previously lent its name to different (non-crypto) mobile games over the years, including an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmg0qoB1DvQ">endless runner</a> mobile game roughly a decade ago and even a cooking game in 2018.&nbsp;



Last year, it <a href="https://www.mundodeportivo.com/us/en/soccer/20240724/695812/barca-introduces-barca-games-its-innovative-worldwide-video-game-platform-nrt.html">launched</a> a mobile minigame app called Barça Games, but that app is no longer available on the Google Play Store.



Back in 2020, FCB tried its hand at crypto with an FC Barcelona fan token, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/fc-barcelona-fan-token">BAR</a>, on Chiliz.&nbsp;



That token hit a market cap of nearly $125 million in 2021 — and today sits at $13.2 million.



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International

FC Barcelona unveils Barca Pass crypto wallet, NFT avatars

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Ethereum core developers are tuning the protocol’s execution engine for higher throughput and flexibility ahead of the upcoming Fusaka fork. On the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=as4byc7tX8c">June 19 All Core Devs call</a>, contributors aligned on a batch of EIPs for inclusion in Devnet-2 and tee’d up more aggressive performance upgrades for a prospective Devnet-3 (to be confirmed).



The result is a tightly scoped but technically meaningful upgrade, focused not so much on new features, but optimizations. When <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-fusaka-fork-pectra-devs-call">we covered Fusaka</a> in April, it was still a somewhat mushy amalgamation of ideas: a tentative gas limit increase, early discussions about blob fee fixes and unresolved questions around contract size limits. Two months later, the fork has hardened into a clear package.



Developers have now committed to a 45 million gas ceiling, capped blob submission per transaction, a streamlined 48 KB contract limit (EIP-7907) plus a brand-new opcode (<a href="https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-7939">EIP-7939</a>) in CLZ (for “count leading zeros”). Previously contentious parameters like the blob fee floor (EIP-7918) have been settled, setting the stage for Devnet-2 on Monday.



Let’s start with the gas limit increase, which is already under testing and not strictly part of Fusaka. This change, if successful, could bump Ethereum’s transaction capacity by over 11%, but requires careful benchmarking. Developers flagged the need to keep block propagation within safe latencies as a key variable to monitor.



“All the clients seem to be OK with moving ahead with 45 million once the releases are done,” the EF’s Parithosh Jayanthi (commonly referred to as “Pari”) said on the call.



Alongside the throughput boost, developers are refining how blob data — introduced with <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-improvement-proposal-4844">EIP-4844 during the Dencun upgrade</a> — will be handled. While 4844 enabled cheaper off-chain data availability, it didn’t limit how many blobs a single transaction could include. <a href="https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-7892">EIP-7892</a> closes that gap, capping per-transaction blob usage to prevent any one rollup or dapp from monopolizing blobspace. Meanwhile, EIP-7918 sets a base fee floor and caps the total number of blobs per block, a move to balance scalability and network safety, explained Ben Adams of the Nethermind client team.



“Putting a lower limit on the max size of blobs means you can include more blobs — paradoxically,” Adams said.



Without a floor, the blob base fee can drop to near-zero during low demand, leading to inefficient use of blockspace.



Another low-level improvement greenlit for Devnet-2 is EIP-7939, which introduces a CLZ opcode to the EVM. This might sound obscure, but it’s the kind of tool that power devs reach for when squeezing performance or doing clever things with randomness or proofs. Most modern VMs already have it, and now Ethereum will too. A niche but handy boon for developer ergonomics, with minimal consensus impact.



Also of note is EIP-7951, the long-awaited precompile for secp256r1 — a type of cryptographic curve used in digital signatures. Its inclusion will unlock native support for keys commonly used in mobile and enterprise platforms — including <a href="https://webauthn.guide/">WebAuthn-based authentication</a> — thus bringing Ethereum one step closer to seamless and secure off-chain integration.



The refined Fusaka scope has drawn pushback from some high-profile stakeholders, notably Paradigm Chief Technology Officer Georgios Konstantopoulos, who <a href="https://x.com/gakonst/status/1935647629754437883">resurfaced</a> long-standing frustrations around the “stack too deep” error and the 24 KB bytecode size limit — two of the most cited pain points in Solidity.



The thread sparked a mild <a href="https://x.com/shemnon/status/1935781691357872384">rebuttal</a> from client developers, with Prysm developer Potuz <a href="https://x.com/potuz_eth/status/1935714467314028962">noting</a> that EOF had, in fact, aimed to resolve these issues. They had been prioritized until recently, driven in part by Paradigm’s Reth team changing their minds on a prior endorsement.



While Fusaka may lack a headline feature, it targets what many say Ethereum needs most in 2025: better performance without undue risk. It’s shaping up to be a quiet flex by Ethereum’s core devs.



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</ul>

0xResearch Newsletter

Gas, blobs and EIPs: Fusaka to boost Ethereum’s performance

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Everybody knows the symbol for the almighty dollar. But no one knows exactly where it came from.&nbsp;



Our best guess for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/next-global-money-crypto-reserve-currency">origin</a> of “$” is that it’s a relic of the Spanish colonial peso, or the Spanish dollar. These large silver coins were widely used across the Americas in the 18th century, long before the US created its own dollar currency.



Early Americans had used a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/money/dollar-sign">shorthanded “Ps”</a> to represent the Spanish peso in text. Those two letters would merge, placing the “P” on top of the “s,” eventually morphing into something that resembles the modern-day dollar symbol.



Luckily, we know exactly where Bitcoin’s Unicode symbol came from — and it became officially usable around the world eight years ago today.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">On This Day</h1>



Unicode 10.0.0 was <a href="https://www.unicode.org/versions/Unicode10.0.0/">released</a> on June 20, 2017, ferrying in 8,518 new characters to the universal typeset and bringing its total to 136,690.



Bitcoin’s symbol was finally among them. Unicode listed ₿ as an “important symbol addition” alongside 56 new emoji characters and a set of religious Typicon marks.



“It is described as ‘a capital letter B with two vertical lines going through’’ it, though the lines are only visible at the top and bottom,” the <a href="https://www.unicode.org/L2/L2015/15229-bitcoin-sign.pdf">proposal</a> reads.



This milestone had been a long time in the making. Infamous hardware hacker Ken Shirriff had submitted his formal proposal almost two years prior in October 2015.&nbsp;



It was Shirriff’s second such submission after a proposal for a group mark symbol earlier that year, which was also included in Unicode 10.0.&nbsp;



Shirriff is Bitcoin Legend material in his own right, having mined bitcoin with a <a href="https://www.righto.com/2014/09/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and-paper.html">pencil and paper</a>, as well as on a <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/this-guy-rigged-an-apollo-guidance-computer-to-mine-bitcoin/">52-year-old machine</a> that helped guide the Apollo spaceship to the moon.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXejxg8fh9Y28y0jTSp5V0_uEpubr26VEbBh-in1nRwUSRba7douZrywKiWbT5-7ontdZSHRDwQOUVA0034ffOfO9SRUQgurFSG_MqRSSpX8Uehv9K0pGqbQd0q46V3rrjBnfJEmnw?key=MWyn2Ub5f1NHq_Bo_aL4Kg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">₿ was already found in Wikipedia and Wired magazine years before the 2015 proposal, and was community used in bitcoin wallet and payment apps.</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoiners had organized to push for an official symbol in June 2014, when the Bitcoin Foundation formed a volunteer Standards Committee to decide how it should look. Informal discussions had started in 2013, but the currency symbol had been a <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=369.0">recurring</a> topic since as <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=41.0">early</a> as February 2010.



Shirriff’s proposal had support of the Bitcoin Foundation and its Standards Committee, as well as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/peter-todd-legend-bitcoin-brain-wallet/">Peter Todd</a>, Eric Martindale, Justin Drake, Theo Chino, Michael Marquart (under theymos) and a string of early Bitcoin startups.&nbsp;



Unicode accepted the pitch after only one month, in November 2015, leaving the Bitcoin community to wait for half a halving epoch to really celebrate. It was the first new currency symbol in 24 years, since the Korean won (₩) was included in Unicode 1.1, released in June 1993.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> sign is accepted by Unicode. My second addition to Unicode, probably more useful than the group mark. <a href="https://t.co/ZOoBGGMmX3">https://t.co/ZOoBGGMmX3</a>&mdash; Ken Shirriff (@kenshirriff) <a href="https://twitter.com/kenshirriff/status/661396468796817408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 3, 2015</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Before all this, the community was somewhat split over how they should represent bitcoin. The Thai baht (฿) was a common suggestion, but didn’t go down well with everybody. “You cannot and should not just steal [a] symbol from [an] existing official currency of [an] independent country,” one Bitcointalk user wrote. Ƀ was another.&nbsp;



However, ₿ is the closest to resembling the symbol that Satoshi had designed as the icon for their original Bitcoin client, making it the obvious choice once the proposal was finalized.&nbsp;



₿ represents a whole bitcoin, with the symbol for an individual satoshi still up for debate (as is the term “satoshi” every now and then.)



While Unicode may recognize bitcoin, the International Organization of Standardization (ISO) doesn’t.&nbsp;



The organization is yet to include BTC or XBT in its ISO 4217 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_4217">list</a> of active currency codes. Bitcoin’s official code cannot start with a “B” because it clashes with Bhutan’s country code, BT.&nbsp;



A Bitcoin Foundation working group had been <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141008092159/http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-foundation-standardise-bitcoin-symbol-code-next-year/">tasked</a> with applying for ISO approval in October 2014, but apparently never succeeded.&nbsp;



No better time to revive those efforts than now.



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Bitcoin

Happy ₿-Day: Bitcoin’s official Unicode symbol turns 8

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>.



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
&nbsp;“A 1921 version of Wakanda — and all is vibranium.”



— Chief Egunwale Amusan on the Greenwood district of Tulsa
</blockquote>



1. <a href="https://x.com/RealJimChanos/status/1932497480547250574">The investment case for MSTR is gibberish</a>



The forensic short-seller Jim Chanos describes Michael Saylor’s investment pitch for Strategy as “complete financial gibberish.”



Chanos was responding to Saylor <a href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1932485145464021158">telling CNBC</a> that investors should value Strategy at a multiple of its growth in NAV.



But Chanos argues this is “like claiming that your house, which increased in market value last year from $450,000 to $500,000, is actually worth $1.5 million, because you also have to put a 20x multiple on the $50,000 increase!”



Matt Levine <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/10u8kJ7PyVwhZOWya8aqJc?si=6eb4c4bd0d7a4fe4">agrees</a> with Chanos that this is “gibberish” — and also “crazy-making” in part, because the popular idea that MSTR offers leveraged exposure to bitcoin is nonsensical:&nbsp;



“It’s not levered bitcoin for you,” he explains. “You put in a dollar and get back $0.50 of bitcoin, which is the opposite of leverage.”



One thing that Saylor certainly has right, however, is that shorting MSTR is risky; Chanos is far from the first short seller to target MSTR and I’m not sure it’s worked out for any of them so far.



But it’s hard to argue with his investment advice that “it is usually wise not to pay $2 for each dollar bill.”



2. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/13a6cead-af71-4811-9b90-553f233ac45f">Tron is “going public” on US exchanges</a>



The FT reported that “Justin Sun’s digital asset platform Tron is set to go public in the US.”



I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s exactly correct because it’s not Tron’s token, TRX, that’s being listed, but a new company, Tron Inc., which will hold TRX tokens.



Matt Levine more accurately <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-06-16/there-s-a-tron-treasury-company?srnd=undefined">describes</a> Tron Inc. as “a US-securities-law-compliant wrapper for Tron tokens.”



This feels like a shark-jumping moment (in my colleague <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/thebreakdown/d7554d1a-4be7-11f0-9cb0-e77c163c3df0">NLW’s phrase</a>). Because unlike bitcoin or SOL, it&#8217;s impossible to argue that TRX is decentralized enough to qualify as a commodity.



A TRX treasury company is therefore a blatant regulatory arbitrage that gives US investors access to an unregistered security.



They seem bizarrely eager for it — Levine noted that the Tron SPAC was trading at a 1,700% premium to NAV this week, “suggesting that the stock market will pay $18 for $1 worth of TRX.”



$18!



As long as investors keep paying irrational multiples of NAV for exchange-listed crypto, we’ll keep getting more of it.



Even HYPE, which approximately no one outside of crypto has ever heard of, <a href="https://x.com/mlmabc/status/1935051798701609329">has a reserve company</a> now too.



Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the (almost certainly bad) outcome.



3. <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/institutional/research-insights/research/monthly-outlook/monthly-outlook-jun-2025">Crypto treasury companies are a systemic risk to crypto</a>



A report from Coinbase cautions that the current proliferation of Strategy copycats poses &#8220;systemic risks for the crypto ecosystem.”



The first risk they note is that if treasury companies are unable to repay convertible debt by issuing new debt, today’s buyers could become tomorrow’s sellers.



That seems obvious enough, although no one else seems to be worried about it.



The “subtler” risk, however, is if “one or more of these entities unexpectedly offloads a portion of their crypto holdings, even if it’s for routine cash flow management or business operation purposes…others may rush to sell as well, destabilizing the market well before any actual debt repayment issues emerge.”



That, too, would seem obvious — in hindsight.



4. <a href="https://ethdigitaloil.com">ETH as digital oil</a>



ETH has cycled through multiple elevator pitches — world computer, ultra-sound money, crypto app store — none of which have really caught on with investors.



But the team at <a href="https://www.etherealize.com">Etherealize</a> wants to try again, now framing ETH as “a productive reserve asset: digital oil powering the digital economy.”&nbsp;



This, they estimate, justifies a short-term price target of $8,000, a long-term target of $80,000, and a “<a href="https://www.bankless.com/podcast/ethereum-is-digital-oil-the-bull-case-for-eth">thought-experiment</a>” target of $740,000.



The latter would make Ethereum worth $89 trillion.&nbsp;



Lord, give me the confidence of an investor who believes a $300 billion asset can be mispriced by 30,000% (even as a long-term thought experiment).



Only in crypto.



5. <a href="https://youtu.be/k9rj08wiuDg?si=eCpisUAKfLRjj3o0&amp;t=2334">A black-swan risk to markets?</a> 



Mathew Pines of the Bitcoin Policy Institute tells David Beckworth that he expects the US to end the exemption that makes interest on Treasurys tax-free for foreign holders “in the next two months.”



Beckworth responds that this seemingly mundane change in tax law “would be shocking.”



The risk is that ending the exemption would likely lead to higher interest rates as foreign central banks switch out of Treasurys and into alternatives like German Bunds, Swiss francs, gold and maybe even bitcoin (which Pines believes is an easy 10x in that scenario).



More importantly, this could destabilize global financial markets, which have become fundamentally dependent on Treasurys as the world’s only risk-free asset.



Shocking indeed — people are increasingly worried that the US is slowly losing its “exorbitant privilege.” But this seems like a way to lose it quickly.



Markets have been unusually adept at pricing in all the political shenanigans this year, but I don’t think anyone is ready for that.



6. <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2060670/000095010325007019/xslF345X02/dp229587_3-tarbert.xml">Circle executive’s big payday</a>



If I’m reading his SEC filing correctly, Circle’s chief legal officer, Tarbert Heath, owns 839,761 restricted units of newly IPO’d CRCL shares and 939,968 stock options (with an exercise price of $25.09).



At this week’s share price of $150, that would be worth a whopping $243 million.



Other Circle executives hold even more CRCL but I&#8217;m mentioning Heath here because he joined Circle two years ago.



It&#8217;s one thing to hit that kind of IPO jackpot as a founder; it&#8217;s another thing to make it as a recently hired employee.



I knew I should have gone to law school.



7. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/02/1002538572/black-wall-street">Black Wall Street was the original Wakanda</a>



In recognition of the Juneteenth holiday in the US, I thought I’d highlight the amazing — and tragic — story of the Greenwood district of Tulsa.



Amazing because, just three decades removed from the Civil War, Greenwood was such an economic success story that it came to be known as “Black Wall Street.”



Like Wakanda from Black Panther, this honorific is a little mythical — there was no Black Goldman Sachs in Greenwood, for example.



But by 1900, Greenwood had become “a self-sustaining ecosystem of Black excellence and prosperity,” according to one <a href="https://www.blackartdepot.com/blogs/black-history-blitz/black-wall-street-a-legacy-of-economic-excellence-and-a-vision-for-tomorrow">account</a>, and “an intentionally all-Black community” where “all was vibranium,” according to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/02/1002538572/black-wall-street">another</a> (referencing Black Panther again).



Ironically, part of that success was attributed to Jim Crow laws that forced Greenwood’s residents to spend their money with businesses owned by their neighbors.



“In Greenwood, a dollar would change hands 19 times before it left the community,” according to the local attorney Buck Colbert Franklin. “That’s what you call real wealth-building.”



Some of the residents of all-Black Greenwood were so wealthy that when envious white rioters came to burn the neighborhood down in 1921, the nicest residences were said to be spared because the arsonists couldn&#8217;t believe that such wealthy homes could possibly be owned by Black Americans.



That attack on Greenwood was originally declared a “riot,” in part to falsely imply that there was blame on both sides.



But, perhaps even more cynically, there was a financial reason as well: Calling the events of 1921 a “riot” allowed insurance companies to deny claims filed by Greenwood’s residents.&nbsp;



Dozens of Black-owned businesses and more than 1,000 homes were destroyed in the “riot,” but the only insurance claim paid out was to the white owner of a pawn shop that had been raided for guns and ammunition to be used against the Black people in Greenwood.



These events have since been named the Tulsa race massacre.



Greenwood residents put up a stout defense but were hopelessly outnumbered by their white Tulsa neighbors, who were seemingly enraged by the economic success of an all-Black neighborhood.



Black Wall Street became a tragic story because it was a success story first — one especially worth remembering on Juneteenth.



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</ul>

Thursday links: Systemic risks, digital oil and Black Wall Street

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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We’re seemingly coming down to the wire for SEC approval of spot Solana ETFs, with the original seven prospective issuers filing amended S-1s in recent days and a newcomer (aka CoinShares) entering the race.&nbsp;



Notably, every filing included language around staking, which, as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-etf-sec-forms">we previously reported</a>, the SEC asked issuers to include.



As the industry prepares for a third crypto asset to possibly get the SEC’s go-ahead on ETFs, here are the eight firms that have filed to issue Solana ETFs, in order of when they first filed:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">VanEck</h2>



VanEck was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-files-for-solana-etf">first to file</a> for a Solana ETF, almost a year ago this month. At the time, some likened the filing — despite the SEC’s insistence that Solana was a security — to a call option on a Trump victory in the November election.&nbsp;



That bet paid off, but it may be something of a pyrrhic victory if the SEC follows its precedent of approving bitcoin and ether ETFs all at once rather than in order of the issuers filing first.



To that end, VanEck has been <a href="https://x.com/vaneck_us/status/1931038867785744836">advocating</a> for the SEC to take a “first-to-file” approach, arguing it is better for innovation and competition.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-begins-sol-staking">VanEck uses Kiln</a> to power Solana staking for its European ETP.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">21Shares</h2>



21Shares placed the Trump election call option shortly after VanEck did, and it also wants the SEC to follow a first-to-file approach.&nbsp;



Coinbase is listed as 21Shares’ staking provider in a base <a href="https://cdn.21shares.com/uploads/current-documents/products/prospectus/Base_Prospectus(EU).pdf">prospectus</a> filed in Europe. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHjEou1MMUs">Here’s a conversation</a> I had with the firm’s head of strategy Eliezer Ndinga on the topic of Solana ETFs last year.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Canary Capital</h2>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/canary-capital-sol-etf-filing">Canary Capital filed</a> for a SOL ETF days before the election.



A smaller fund than some on this list, Canary Capital has made its name lately by filing for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/canary-capital-litecoin-etf">altcoin ETFs</a>. It has filings out for ETFs including SUI, SEI, INJ, TRX, PENGU, HBAR, LTC and XRP.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bitwise</h2>



Bitwise first filed for an ETF shortly after Trump’s election. In an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">interview with me</a>, the firm’s CEO, Hunter Horsley, called Solana an “incredible emerging asset and story.”



Bitwise also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-launches-solana-staking-etp-europe">launched a solana staking ETP</a> in December with Marinade as the staking provider — which may bode well for Marinade should staking ETFs gain approval in the US.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Grayscale</h2>



Grayscale is looking to convert its SOL Trust into a spot ETF, similar to what it did with its bitcoin and ether trusts. The GSOL trust currently <a href="https://www.grayscale.com/funds/grayscale-solana-trust">trades</a> at a premium to its NAV, meaning investors are willing to pay more for the product than what the underlying SOL is worth.



Last month, the SEC<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-grayscale-solana-etf"> delayed a decision</a> on Grayscale’s ETF, saying it hadn’t “reached any conclusions” on the 19b-4 filing to list the proposed spot SOL ETF.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Franklin Templeton</h2>



Franklin Templeton offers bitcoin and ether ETFs, and it has filings out for SOL and XRP ETFs.&nbsp;



The $1.5 trillion <a href="https://investors.franklinresources.com/news-center/press-releases/press-release-details/2025/Franklin-Resources-Inc--Announces-Preliminary-Month-End-Assets-Under-Management-19be41576/default.aspx">fund</a> has a number of other crypto initiatives, and its Digital Assets Core SMA has a small <a href="https://www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/separately-managed-accounts/products/COFDASCORE/NA/franklin-templeton-digital-assets-core-sma">allocation</a> to SOL. Its tokenized money market fund also <a href="https://solanafloor.com/news/solanas-rwa-scene-welcomes-franklin-templeton-fobxx">added</a> Solana support earlier this year.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fidelity</h2>



Fidelity is the giant in the race so far. Its <a href="https://www.blockworks.com/analytics/bitcoin-etf/tracker">Bitcoin ETF</a> is second only to BlackRock in AUM, and its <a href="https://www.blockworks.com/analytics/ethereum-etf/tracker">Ethereum ETF</a> trails BlackRock and Grayscale’s converted trust.&nbsp;



Fidelity is a major provider of brokerage, trust and IRA accounts, and it could be a major driver of inflows to approved SOL ETFs.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">CoinShares</h2>



CoinShares is the latest entrant in the Solana ETF race, throwing its hat in the ring at the same time that existing issuers were racing to submit amended S-1 forms.&nbsp;



The crypto-focused European asset manager has existing ETPs for BTC, ETH and a range of altcoins — Tezos ETP, anyone?



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ETFs

Here are the 8 firms vying to list Solana ETFs

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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To no one’s surprise, the Fed held rates steady in the June FOMC meeting.&nbsp;



As is the case in this modern age of monetary policy, the actual rate decision was well-telegraphed and wasn’t what moved markets.&nbsp;



In terms of what did move markets…the FOMC statement saw minor changes to wording but, generally, there was very little for market participants to glean.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf3RnMcc7yVQr7cDQmXZW-PMJsLzvEnXoki6unSI8FLtLcMEveQYoDrx6vjRcCkfZ51fZ7STwhjyLNAW57SnBhpa6E22Ljg5tBAkIEbPYLEuDUwUKZBbGq7mHyVCTwj56vI2h6HYA?key=2A0LOa6-dzsI7z05o7-NJw" alt=""/></figure>



More notably, the updated Summary of Economic Projections was substantial compared to the last update in March.&nbsp;



Considering how much has changed since March (Liberation Day and an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stocks-lower-oil-iran-israel">emerging war</a> with Iran, to name a few things), it&#8217;s no surprise to see a significant change in the ways FOMC members see the economy evolving.&nbsp;



&nbsp;Based on the table below, we can surmise that:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The FOMC sees growth slowing more than what committee members expected in March.</li>



<li>The FOMC expects the unemployment rate to tick up marginally but they’re still not concerned about the labor market.</li>



<li>The committee further ratcheted up their inflation forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 3%, noting the risk of tariffs being larger than what they expected.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfA2x8Xhd-8qzAqHOHI9Xfp8Ju4708N-Qao33T6g9auwNtIvE0pccBjD4X3AzM2r_kYJxJrGjeS0ikITd7XxRy8zMMpKEjPA8FAPeEVrbx7MbzF17We7bdTvokV2QHKqTCY0Jmy?key=2A0LOa6-dzsI7z05o7-NJw" alt=""/></figure>



Interestingly, the one thing the FOMC did not change is how many rate cuts they expect to enact this year.&nbsp;



The number remained at two by year-end. However, beneath the surface, we actually saw more FOMC members move toward no cuts for this year — just enough to move the market on the median projection:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdzqiiQdR15C99JyuGDcbB9qVMlFsek-pq9-OPBogM4kyS6KS4zwg-shtUbDc57v56i4834ViuFK0epb_DIZyk8KaSbhp8aeqcc-ntWIf_tEmtGUsLhOgQrV3tnHKO08Hc_hF2Amg?key=2A0LOa6-dzsI7z05o7-NJw" alt=""/></figure>



Overall, the theme of the June meeting was a Fed truly committed to doing as little as possible.&nbsp;



With a five-year monetary policy framework review underway, a Fed chair’s term ending in 2026, uncertainty around tariffs, a potential oil shock from the Middle East and a US president demanding the Fed cut rates by at least 200 basis points, it appears Powell’s main goal is just to get to the end of his term in one piece.



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FOMC

June FOMC meeting takeaways

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">subscribe</a>.



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I chatted with Spekter Games founder and CEO Taehoon Kim about crypto gaming and where things go from here. The a16z-backed studio’s flagship game is called <a href="https://t.me/SpekterAgency_bot">Spekter Agency</a>, a mobile-first roguelite battler with crypto elements playable via Telegram.



But big-picture first. This slice of our chat was also edited and condensed for clarity:



Taehoon Kim: Web3 gaming, you know, is not going that well at the moment. A lot of the projects overpromised and under-delivered, and they were only able to kind of attract the point farmers, because the gameplay wasn&#8217;t very good, right? 



So we saw this scenario over and over again, where people play because they want to earn the tokens that they&#8217;re going to launch. After TGE, [it] always goes up and kind of fizzles away, and then everybody leaves because they’re not really there because of the game. They’re attached more to the reward. So it was the same movie playing over and over again. 



So what I think needs to happen next is that we need games that are excellent.



Kate Irwin: Telegram has been a huge platform. More broadly, we’re seeing a lot of companies try to do the “Superapp” and “Mini apps” dynamic. What do you make of that and its possible impact on crypto gaming and crypto app developers?



Yeah, so this is the main reason why I founded Spekter Games late last year: Because I saw such a big potential with Telegram and these chat-based super apps that enable both the free-to-play Web2 model as well as the Web3 model. Telegram especially — with the mini apps, it makes it super easy for people to invite and accept, and so the viral distribution just becomes super frictionless. Second, the easy payments using Telegram Stars.



And with Spekter Games, there’s plans for one unified token, as opposed to multiple tokens per game. Can you speak a little bit to the strategy behind that?



We don’t want any complications; our strategy is a little different. We don’t want everything to be onchain. We actually want most things to be offchain, except the reward system. And we want the rewards to also be mainly status items, like vanity items, like skins and PFPs and things that don’t impact your stats or gameplay. So our games are just like Web2 free-to-play games that aren’t token-gated. 



So if you do well in the game, and if you invite people, then you get Sparks, which are our reward points. And then you can convert the Sparks into our token, which will launch later on. We want that to be mainly all about status, like, think of it as more of like a credit card point system or airline model system.&nbsp;



Is the vision to do a global launch, or are you launching in specific regions?



More of a global launch. We picked the roguelite genre because we believe that’s the genre where anyone can play, and it doesn’t really have to have a regional, specific appeal. Also it’s a game genre that monetizes really well. 



All you have to do is move. Everything else is done automatically. You just have to make good choices with your skills to upgrade as fast as possible within your game session.



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Gaming

A16z-backed Spekter Games founder shares Telegram gaming ethos

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto centralized exchanges have been rapidly moving their businesses onchain of late.



And to get there, they’re all leveraging their biggest trump card: distribution.



Case study number one.



Bybit announced <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-bybit-dex-hybrid">Byreal</a> on Sunday, a DEX on Solana that is set to launch later this year. Along with the DEX is also a yield product (Revive Vault) and a token launchpad (Reset Launch).



Byreal will route liquidity from its CEX through a hybrid RFQ (request for quote) + CLMM (concentrated liquidity market maker) model, so onchain users can trade onchain with a CEX’s liquidity depth.



My guess is Bybit users will also be able to access Byreal from the main CEX app.



Case study number two.



Coinbase <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/don-t-underestimate-avalanche">announced</a> a few days later the direct integration of Base DEXs onto its exchange business, set to roll out this week. DEXs from other chains will also be integrated eventually.



This opens up gas-less trading access to thousands of altcoins for millions of Coinbase users (though they will still pay the usual CEX trading fee).



It’s a significant tailwind for DEXs on Base, namely its largest one: Aerodrome. The AERO token — which accrues revenues from DEX trading fees — has pumped 52% in price since the announcement.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcav3WTb-NvqhVgeF9T73BsWBQnhKrZRKKnA2FSKPnah8JUCLKi6A77G7JOCtRR6hiWnTpzplEliPIa8Y0IH3sVfk_34qkqd5sjXd6G1q-Ti0fxwTa357TKab9NYI7p51AlIcgnVA?key=HOmWb9MvGqXEBEClHFvZ8Q" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/flashnotes/aerodrome-tailwinds-coinbase-dex-integration">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



This isn’t Coinbase’s first attempt to push onchain with its distributional advantage. cbBTC, its wrapped bitcoin product was bootstrapped using Coinbase as the main distribution rail.



By integrating Base’s lending markets under the hood, cbBTC holders on Coinbase could easily borrow USDC against their bitcoin collateral without leaving the Coinbase app.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">~$100m in bitcoin on <a href="https://twitter.com/base?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@base</a> from <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@coinbase</a> customers borrowing USDC onchain this is the first defi mullet product and it&#39;s only been a couple months &#8211; this flywheel is going to bring billions and billions of capital onchain <a href="https://t.co/Y7AYGVRd2v">pic.twitter.com/Y7AYGVRd2v</a>&mdash; jesse.base.eth (@jessepollak) <a href="https://twitter.com/jessepollak/status/1908536280356663688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Case study number three.



Binance and its extremely complicated Alpha campaign, which has been running since May.&nbsp;



Within Alpha are dozens of “trading competitions” that reward users with “Alpha Points” to trade selected assets, which will in turn entitle you to airdrops. Yet, calling it a competition is misleading — most of these points are handed out based on trading volumes, not P&amp;L criteria.



That’s puzzling until you realize there is a double-pronged strategy at play here.



The first prong is to drive Binance Wallet adoption. Alpha points are eligible only if one trades using its keyless Binance Wallet. This has enabled Binance to absolutely dominate crypto “wallet market share,” as seen below.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf-LCBLfQ2kDhjcSvDRv-kbswnU6pegV1l00KYSVo5eshvU9oYWcyVBJueA_0wClpVv5k1O7pWN3es0IEwyzDFrxFkUt4PFvOcv5L8C-4d1aTtMV792wKyZhfbYygbP6DYvWl9r?key=HOmWb9MvGqXEBEClHFvZ8Q" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://dune.com/lz_web3/wallet-war">Dune</a></figcaption></figure>



There are two caveats here. For one, the activity isn’t organic.



Second, these aren’t “Binance Wallet” users so much as they are simply “Binance CEX” users.



Traders still pay the Binance CEX trading fee, so the revenue capture is different from that of a MetaMask user paying a fee for using its in-app trading features. Calling it “wallet market share” is probably misleading.&nbsp;



Still, it has allowed Binance to drive adoption for its wallet and potentially funnel users onchain on a piece of infrastructure that they own, which they can monetize later.



The second prong of the strategy behind Binance Alpha is to bolster its own onchain ecosystem on BNB Chain.



<a href="https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/c6499e95c15e408ca44ca5f6db975d4d">Powering</a> the trading of these Alpha tokens under the hood is PancakeSwap, which has exploded in volumes since Alpha kicked off in May.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeHpFvcQgLTPRYQx5JCCEqH7xZMiI_R0QR_BtYF-DJ6BQPYHNQoiCkdTTZMVAcu2sa9VbddkKq1_nA4ml1eJGpNSKq1f8g9l4bTCG5CYpIem6El1m2JvZZHV4AP2PKpkLx1NGOosQ?key=HOmWb9MvGqXEBEClHFvZ8Q" alt=""/></figure>



Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/bnb">Blockworks Research</a>



These different strategies convey a clear sign: the onchain economy has come a long way from just a few years ago.



DeFi is now mature and secure enough that centralized entities, which must adhere to regulatory requirements, can confidently integrate DeFi infrastructure into their own compliant technology stacks.



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Centralized exchanges are embracing the DeFi mullet

“The scenario of bitcoin going to zero does not exist anymore. BTC is playing much the same role as gold did in the early days of banking.”



You’ve probably come across that exact post on X, shared by a scambot posing as a reply-guy — bait that leads to some fraudster posing as an analyst.



Still, it’s true. The scenario of bitcoin going to zero really does not exist anymore.&nbsp;



Obviously, I don’t need to convince you of that. But it wasn’t always this way. Bitcoin actually did go to zero on this day, 14 years ago, localized entirely on Mt. Gox, of course.



Stacked against the swathes of scandals that plagued Mt. Gox, this particular incident seems small, with only 2,000 BTC reported lost (under $30,000 at the time).



The significance was in the spectacle. Practically all bitcoin trading <a href="https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/all?c=e&amp;t=b">volume</a> occurred on Mt. Gox before mid-2011, making it the one and only venue for bitcoin price discovery.&nbsp;



Bitcoin had peaked at more than $26 in the first two weeks of June — an all-time high that would stand for close to two years. Prices were now on their way down, but at least one YouTuber noticed they were correcting a little too quickly.



“You are watching a crash in real time. We are down to 4.8 [dollars], 4.6, 4.5, 4.4. I’ve been watching this since about 17. I’ve not seen a single uptick in this market. It’s going straight down. I would be fascinated to know what news is associated with this. I’m sure we’re going to find out. Three and a half, 3.3, 3.2&#8230; and 3.1,” BitcoinChannel <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1X6qQt9ONg">commentated</a> over the Mt. Gox’s price feed.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Bitcoin Report Volume 8 - (FLASHCRASH)" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T1X6qQt9ONg?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



“Well, I’m all broken up about my $99. The main thing I’m broken up about is I could have had 33 bitcoins [$560 then, $3.5 million now]. So we’re going to see how low this thing goes.”



Within three minutes, the price of bitcoin on the exchange had flatlined at $0.01, with not a single positive tick observed on the way down.&nbsp;



BitcoinChannel was right: there was some news about Mt. Gox. It had been hacked.



Two days earlier, a pseudonymous hacker under ~cRazIeStinGeR~ had offered for sale Mt. Gox’s entire database of user accounts for sale on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110619054549/http://pastebin.com/xhnNdvte">Pastebin</a>. The next day, then-new owner Mark Karpelès <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110621070512/http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=18858.0">warned</a> of an increase in thefts from user accounts, but appeared to blame the victims themselves.



“So far I have 10 known cases of people whose coins were stolen (someone logged in on the account using their password, traded USD for BTC, withdrew all the BTC). Considering we have now over 60000 accounts (2 months ago we had 10 times less), this seems to be a problem coming mainly from users.”



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="973" height="194" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png" alt="" class="wp-image-104152" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=973 973w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-19-at-14.33.24.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 973px) 100vw, 973px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The pastebin that sent bitcoin to zero</figcaption></figure>



As it turned out, ~cRazIeStinGeR~ may have told the truth. Preceding the crash, an unidentified user on the long-gone InsidePro password recovery forums, “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110622172449/http://forum.insidepro.com/search.php?search_author=georgeclooney">georgeclooney</a>,” asked for help in cracking hashed passwords from the stolen database.



A number of the hashes were weak and were quickly brute-forced, according to a <a href="https://blog.zorinaq.com/major-attack-on-the-worlds-largest-bitcoin-exchange/">timeline</a> of events pieced together by investor Marc Bevand. “Some users discovering the leak have run password brute-forcers themselves against the hash list and easily broke hundreds of them. Contrary to previous claims from the MtGox owner, this indicates that many accounts had been compromised for at least days, if not weeks, before today&#8217;s attack.”



And considering georgeclooney knew about the hashes before the database was leaked online, Bevand concluded that they were likely the same person who sent bitcoin spiraling.



At exactly 36 seconds past 5:15pm, UTC, on June 19, 2011, that person placed a number of orders to sell hundreds of thousands of bitcoins at once. Bevand reported that it took 30 minutes for Mt. Gox to process those orders and had been totally unresponsive during that time, as is reflected in BitcoinChannel’s video.



In total, the hacker had traded more than $1.5 million BTC out of a total daily volume of $1.8 million. They then appeared to attempt to buy bitcoin back on the way up for more profits, as did other users, driving bitcoin’s price back up to a few dollars.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="979" height="574" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png" alt="" class="wp-image-104151" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=979 979w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=445 445w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=374 374w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/feed-chart.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 979px) 100vw, 979px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The price of bitcoin on Mt. Gox during the crash (<a href="https://blog.bitmex.com/the-june-2011-bitcoin-flash-crash/">source: BitMEX</a>).</figcaption></figure>



One user in particular, “Kevin,” <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=20207.0;all">claimed</a> to have bought 259,684 BTC for $3,000 ($0.016 on average) but was only able to withdraw 643 BTC before Karpelès took Mt. Gox offline to sort through the mess.



In the end, Mt. Gox was saved due to its $1,000 withdrawal limits for both US dollars and bitcoins (the latter of which was unknown to the public until this event). These limits contained most of the damage to the platform&#8217;s internal, offchain order books.&nbsp;



Karpelès opted to roll back the trading engine to before the compromised accounts began their coordinated dumps, a move which faced controversy at the time. It’s believed up to around 900 accounts may have been affected, and the platform would stay closed until August.



It could be that the hacker knew about the withdrawal limits, and chose to crash the price of bitcoin, perhaps as part of a plot to siphon up to 100,000 BTC, if they were priced at $0.01 apiece, thereby skirting the $1,000 cap.&nbsp;



“Or perhaps, as it is sometimes the case, the attacker&#8217;s purpose was simply to cause mayhem for fun (think a script kiddie doing random things). Not all attackers are like the well-prepared robbers in Ocean&#8217;s 11, with a precise plan of action. This is probably the simplest explanation,” Bevand wrote.



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When ‘George Clooney’ crashed bitcoin to below $0.01

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crossover’s officially expanding to the United States.&nbsp;



I spoke to CEO Brandon Mulvihill about the move, institutional interest, and the rise of over-the-counter (OTC) trading.&nbsp;



It’s probably already pretty obvious that this change is happening because of the shifting environment in the United States. Mulvihill told me it’s the perfect time for the team to enter the US markets — because it’s obviously a more favorable regulatory environment, but also because it looks like institutional interest is really picking up.&nbsp;



“Almost the day after the election, the US institutions were calling us immediately,” he told me. Mulvihill and his other cofounders started their careers in TradFi, so they’re pretty familiar with both crypto and the more, well, traditional side of finance.&nbsp;



And, with CrossX — its electronic communications network — Crossover does stand out as over-the-counter (OTC) trading picks up in crypto.&nbsp;



“One of the big drivers we see internationally is that people are getting out of — especially the crypto-native market makers and…quant hedge fund — they&#8217;re moving away from the on-exchange world into OTC trading, which should not be surprising, because if we look at the foreign exchange market, the same thing happened,” he said. Crossover is also the “largest OTC destination cleared by Hidden Road.”



He noted that even banks, which Mulvihill expects to be one of the “slowest financial institutions to the market” are already making headway, with the JPMorgan <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/jpmorgan-to-pilot-deposit-token-jpmd-on-coinbase-linked-public-blockchain?srnd=phx-crypto">announcement</a> about JPMD and stablecoin progress by the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/crypto-stablecoin-big-banks-a841059e?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAhSMoPcmOmAKC-LFtF9vIAkvrsxT32tv3mKrYUR72SV9gSZBrgax_8_krstsXk%3D&amp;gaa_ts=6851c701&amp;gaa_sig=IHNDW_Km5xkDw3GBlDQ_9AXzhaafufpXBIoNHObggT2BXLuH_1mGRRUUdjMMz65KqL944JKxPRcn80kwkinL9w%3D%3D">likes of Bank of America</a>.



“They are all aggressively, from what we see, building out or finally finalizing battle plans,” he said, reiterating that he still thinks there’ll be a “little bit of time before [banks] come in.”



Add to that the regulatory changes on the horizon. Mulvihill told me that the Crossover team has offered comments on the market structure bill, which is still working its way through DC. He told me he’s heard that it could come between August to the end of the year, though he was cautious to actually predict a timeline.&nbsp;



But the bill itself “changes the game,” he said, calling it “the most positive thing that, I think, has happened in crypto since the ETFs were launched.”



“As a result, what we&#8217;re going to see are mainstream, blue-chip financial institutions coming in waves. I think we&#8217;re going to see M&amp;A explode. I think we&#8217;re going to see investment explode. I think you&#8217;re going to see a real explosion of new customers into the space as a result of this bill.”



And this just reiterates the market potential for Crossover.



“We just fundamentally don&#8217;t believe that the institutional market can grow orders of magnitude in its current market structure form,” Mulvihill noted. Instead, it’ll evolve from here. Just like crypto has pushed TradFi to evolve, which is perhaps why Crossover is striking while the iron is heating up and moving into the US.&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Empire Newsletter

Why Crossover is expanding into the US

Polemos, a leading Web3 gaming infrastructure platform dedicated to bridging the gap between traditional gaming and the decentralized future, today announced a new strategic partnership with The Sandbox. This collaboration signifies a major leap forward in expanding the reach and utility of Web3 gaming within the vibrant Asian market, with a focus on immersive metaverse experiences.



The alliance between Polemos and The Sandbox is set to unlock opportunities for gamers and creators across the region. By combining Polemos&#8217; robust platform for NFT utility and decentralized gaming ecosystems with The Sandbox&#8217;s deep expertise in metaverse development and its extensive network in the Asian gaming and creative industries, the partnership aims to accelerate the mainstream adoption of Web3 technologies. Currently, Polemos is preparing for its highly anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE), slated for June 23rd, 2025, hosted by Kommunitas.



The Sandbox, a subsidiary of Animoca Brands, is a decentralized virtual world that has become a cornerstone of the open metaverse, enabling players to create, own, and monetize their gaming experiences. The Sandbox, specifically, focuses on cultivating this innovative ecosystem within the dynamic Asian market, fostering local talent, and onboarding prominent regional IPs and brands into the metaverse. This focus aligns with Polemos&#8217; mission to onboard users into Web3 with seamless, intuitive tools and experiences.



&#8220;We are incredibly excited to partner with The Sandbox (SEA), a true pioneer in shaping the metaverse landscape, especially within such a crucial and rapidly evolving market,&#8221; said Carl Wilgenbus, CEO of Polemos. &#8220;This represents a big step in our journey to expand Web3 gaming. The Sandbox commitment to fostering a vibrant creator economy and their deep understanding of regional nuances will be instrumental in expanding our reach and delivering truly engaging experiences to a broader audience. As we approach our TGE, this collaboration underscores the significant traction and potential of the Polemos ecosystem.&#8221;



Polemos provides a comprehensive suite of tools that simplify engagement with blockchain games including the ability to seamlessly trade, buy, sell, and even rent NFTs and other assets. Furthermore, Polemos&#8217; unique scholarship program empowers aspiring gamers, offering them the tools and support needed to grow, play, and earn more effectively within the Web3 gaming paradigm. These features will offer tangible benefits and expanded opportunities for participants within The Sandbox metaverse.



&#8220;Our mission at The Sandbox is to empower creators and users to build and own their digital experiences within the metaverse,&#8221; said Cris D. Tran &#8211; Regional General Manager Web3 (SEA) &#8211; The Sandbox. &#8220;Partnering with Polemos, a platform that shares our vision for accessibility and utility in Web3 gaming, allows us to further enhance the value proposition for our community. Their expertise in asset management, frictionless onboarding, and player empowerment will unlock new dimensions of creativity and earning potential for users in The Sandbox, especially across Asia.&#8221;



This strategic alliance underscores Polemos&#8217; commitment to accelerating Web3 adoption globally, with a particular emphasis on high-growth regions like Asia. The upcoming $PLMS Token Generation Event on June 23rd, 2025, will further empower the Polemos ecosystem, providing a foundational utility token that drives participation, governance, and economic activity within the platform and its burgeoning partnerships.



About Polemos: Polemos is a leading Web3 gaming infrastructure platform, enabling seamless player onboarding, asset management, and engagement across blockchain games. Through strategic partnerships and innovative technologies, Polemos bridges Web2 and Web3 gaming, creating a frictionless experience for players. The platform focuses on creating awareness by educating mainstream Web2 players about the opportunities and value within Web3 games and blockchain technology, simplifying access by breaking down blockchain complexities, and enhancing engagement by building innovative tools and features that enrich gameplay, deepen player interactions, and empower gaming communities.



About The Sandbox: A subsidiary of Animoca Brands, The Sandbox is a leading decentralized virtual world that empowers players, creators, and artists to create, own, and monetize their experiences using NFTs and its utility token $SAND. The Sandbox specifically focuses on fostering the growth of the open metaverse across the Asian continent, collaborating with regional brands, intellectual properties, and creators to build a vibrant and diverse digital landscape.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Website: <a href="https://forge.polemos.io/">forge.polemos.io</a></li>



<li>X: <a href="https://x.com/Polemos_io">Polemos_io</a></li>
</ul>



This content is sponsored and does not serve as an endorsement by Blockworks. The veracity of this content has not been verified and should not serve as financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Polemos forges strategic partnership with The Sandbox leading up to $PLMS TGE

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“The bad cars tend to drive out the good.”



— George Akerlof
</blockquote>



In his 1970 paper “The Market for Lemons,” economist George Akerlof explained what happens when sellers have more information than buyers.



In the market for used cars, for example, the odds you’ll get a lemon are disproportionately high due to an “asymmetry in available information.”



Because buyers can’t tell good cars from bad ones, they end up trading at the same price — a price that’s too low for a good car and too high for a bad one.



Owners of bad cars, knowing what they have, are therefore incentivized to sell (usually to buyers who can only guess what they’re buying.)&nbsp;



This floods the market with lemons.



“Gresham’s law has made a modified reappearance,” Akerlof warned. “For most cars traded will be the ‘lemons,’ and good cars might not trade at all.”



The result is lower quality for buyers and a market that slowly eats itself.



“It is quite possible,” Akerlof wrote, “to have the bad driving out the not-so-bad driving out the medium driving out the not-so-good driving out the good in such a sequence of events that no market exists at all.”



This may be where crypto is heading, too: “ Liquid token investors are concerned that tokens are becoming a lemon market,” Felipe Montealegre told the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGtLIf_UW9U">Empire podcast</a> this morning.



That might seem surprising, given that blockchains are inherently transparent, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing for crypto projects to disclose.



One argument against regulating tokens has always been that there’s nothing to regulate; regulation is primarily about disclosure and in crypto, everything you’d need to know about a fully decentralized project is theoretically disclosed onchain.



But few projects are fully decentralized.



For all the rest, highly price-relevant details like lock-ups, market-making deals and OTC transactions remain opaque.&nbsp;



Even the most basic things like how much revenue a project earns or how many tokens exist are often difficult to determine.



The primary sellers of any given token — typically the token’s creators — know all these things, of course. That asymmetric informational advantage may be turning crypto into a market for lemons.&nbsp;



But perhaps not for long!



This morning, Blockworks launched a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/token-transparency-framework">Token Transparency Framework</a>” that will encourage token projects to eliminate the informational advantage crypto sellers have over buyers simply by telling buyers everything they need to know.



This is the premise of all securities regulation.



US regulators like to say that their goal is to protect investors, but their job is simply to inform them.



It may be the most important job in markets.



Before the SEC was created in 1934, investors had so little information about companies and the equities they issued that most didn’t bother with the stock market. They bought bonds instead, knowing at least that companies were legally bound to pay them back.



Those who did try their luck in the stock market spent most of their time attempting to second guess what a company’s insiders might do next — because the insiders were the only ones that knew anything.



The introduction of securities regulation and insider trading laws was an attempt to correct this by creating at least a perception of fairness that would encourage broader participation in stock markets.&nbsp;



Forward-thinking companies and exchanges welcomed their regulators, knowing that if people didn’t think the investing game was fair, few people would play it.



(Just visit any schoolyard playground to see how long an unfair game will last.)



But investing is more than a game, of course, so the stakes were much higher.



“If capitalism is to be maintained,” NYSE President Emil Schram told <a href="https://time.com/archive/6804272/wall-street-every-man-a-capitalist/">Time Magazine</a> in 1941, “the Stock Exchange has to be accepted by the public, a place where we can raise the capital we need. We have to get people out of the idea that the exchange is just a big gambling den.”



It seems to have worked: An estimated <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1711/stock-market.aspx">62% of US adults</a> now own equities, vs. <a href="https://www.sechistorical.org/collection/papers/1940/1940_1001_DistributionOwnership_1.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com">less than 3%</a> in the 1930s.&nbsp;



With luck, Blockworks’ transparency framework could do something similar for crypto.



<a href="https://x.com/smyyguy">Dan Smith</a> describes the framework he helped create as a “crypto-native S1,” referencing the exhaustive IPO filing in which the SEC compels companies to divulge every possible thing a prospective investor could possibly want to know.



And that is pretty much the SEC’s entire job.



Regulators don’t pass judgement on whether a stock offering is good or bad, only that a company is sharing enough information to allow investors to make that determination for themselves.&nbsp;



Blockworks’ transparency framework is an important step in the same direction.



To prevent crypto from becoming a market for lemons, buyers just need to know what sellers do.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Crypto doesn’t have to be a market for lemons

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This isn&#8217;t a promo piece. This is a totally normal weekly markets update that just so happens to include news of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/token-transparency">sweeping transparency initiative</a> that may reshape token due diligence forever, thanks to your friendly neighborhood content goblins at Blockworks.



Just so we&#8217;re all clear.



The week began with SOL in a minor rotation. We&#8217;re still off local highs, but prices <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/sol">remain</a> steady within the $140-$150 range. Bitcoin similarly <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">hodls</a> around $104k, reasonably unfazed by <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/strait-of-hormuz-oil-prices-iran-israel-conflict-stock-market/">geopolitical noise</a> out of the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp;



Though, if we&#8217;re reading tea leaves, crypto will likely remain range-bound until there&#8217;s clearer direction from the Fed or a decisive break in macro volatility.



Kamino v2 is now three weeks old. According to <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/kamino-v2-a-new-growth-lever">a recent report</a> from Blockworks Research, it has pulled $230 million in new deposits, $90 million in fresh loans and turned looping PT-tokens into an institutional-grade yield strategy.



Jupiter volumes are cooling from memecoin fever highs but still <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/kamino-v2-a-new-growth-lever">dominate</a> Solana&#8217;s DEX flow. Margin markets are consolidating. Drift now commands ~$923 million in deposits and ~$230 million in borrows, with growing integration between perps and lending. MarginFi, sidelined by earlier exits, is stirring again.



Maple and Apollo markets are open for business, offering exposure to real-world private credit through syrupUSDC and sACRED. Multiply strategies remain <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/kamino-v2-a-new-growth-lever">dominant</a>, with SOL utilization north of 80% across major markets.



A problem that persists, though, is that when it comes to Solana&#8217;s most sophisticated DeFi strategies, so much of this activity remains difficult to track and trust. Underlying mechanics tend to be scattered across contracts, governance threads and backwater Discord channels.



Which brings us, in a very convincing segue, to Blockworks&#8217; new Token Transparency Framework.



Launching this week, the framework <a href="https://x.com/Blockworks_/status/1935321626788380714">introduces</a> an open-source standard for token project disclosures. It establishes 18 weighted criteria across four categories, including project purpose, revenue sources, equity-token relationship, token allocation and vesting schedules, related-party transactions, market-making agreements and more.



Each project is <a href="https://blockworks.co/token-transparency">scored out of 40</a> based on the completeness and materiality of its disclosures, with Blockworks acting as the first audit layer atop these self-reported filings.



Early adopters <a href="https://x.com/Blockworks_/status/1935321703154074041">include</a> Jito, Jupiter, Raydium, Morpho, Aerodrome and Stride, all of which have completed filings and received <a href="https://impressive-horses-5641a8b530.media.strapiapp.com/Jupiter_Token_Transparency_Framework_Q2_2025_6351fa32d7.pdf">published transparency scores</a>.&nbsp;



Transparency is a baseline for trust. As capital rotates between lending markets and perps platforms, protocols are leaning into increasingly complex primitives, from principal token loops and private credit vaults to structured auto-compounding strategies.



With macro still mostly in wait-and-see mode, eyes are back on core infrastructure: lending dynamics, staking derivatives and real volume durability. Expect protocols with clear risk frameworks and transparent capital flows to lead the next rotation.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Blockworks Research

Macro volatility keeps Solana range-bound

Casey Wagner

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive time. Federal Open Market Committee members still expect to issue two rate cuts this year, unchanged from their projections in March.&nbsp;



“No one holds these rate paths with a great deal of conviction,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during Wednesday afternoon’s press conference, cautioning the public to not read too closely into the so-called “<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250618.pdf">dot plot</a>.”&nbsp;



“We do this once a quarter. It&#8217;s a hard thing to do,” he added.&nbsp;



Central bankers now expect the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflationary gauge, to hit 3%, versus 2.7% in March.&nbsp;



Committee members anticipate unemployment to end the year at 4.5% versus 4.4% in March. Median expectations for gross domestic product dipped to 1.4% from 1.7% in March.&nbsp;



In terms of when those two interest rate cuts might come, Powell said it is “very, very hard to say when that will happen,” but he insisted that it will eventually happen.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“As long as the economy is solid, though, as long as we&#8217;re seeing the kind of labor market that we have and reasonably decent growth and inflation moving down, we feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are,” he added.&nbsp;



When asked whether he planned to stay on as a Fed Governor after his term as Chair ends in May 2026, Powell said he isn’t “thinking about that.”&nbsp;



“I’m thinking about this,” he said.&nbsp;



The comment comes after President Donald Trump earlier in the day expressed frustration with Powell and his decision to leave rates untouched so far this year.&nbsp;



“Europe had 10 cuts, and we had none,” Trump told reporters. “And I guess he’s a political guy, I don’t know. He’s a political guy who’s not a smart person, but he’s costing the country a fortune.”



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

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