Financial Freedom Formula

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Yesterday I touched on the markets, but today I want to take a deeper dive ahead of the inauguration.&nbsp;



Good news is that there’s some positive data supporting the thesis that bitcoin could be in for positive momentum after Jan. 20.&nbsp;



K33 analysts noted that trading volumes are up 51% this past week, with average daily volumes coming in at $4.3 billion.&nbsp;



“Activity levels were exceptionally high amidst [Monday’s] massive flush and recovery, with spot market volumes reaching $6.5 billion, the highest daily spot volume since Dec. 20. The high volume and sharp recovery suggest many willing buyers amidst BTC’s push below $90,000, a promising observation for the road ahead,” they said.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdFn1HvAQNvycVVlM3oKFrYHNezS1AZkuyYYBPxDp74hZ8Z_BFcTjsP-P9zrVLauO7uM2CiCE9u_6LYO8tU_SKI2VwpvR8qI6IFyQNMd0bTLRoRnKIi4IbCJmPYa4yuwwERB41ZSw?key=jqLXOMKC5H0MIUydy2iagSQh" alt=""/></figure>



Now I’m going to offer up the next bit of data without much explanation because I’m not sure we can really explain it outside of theorizing. K33 noted that Jan. 13 was the most volatile day since early December, where the gap between daily returns and intraday volatility was the “highest ever recorded in BTC.”



The easiest explanation is potential profit taking, perhaps to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eoy-price-updates-and-outlook">prepare for tax season</a>.&nbsp;



This leads me to this interesting nugget: “prices saw another peculiar pattern over the last week, with 14 consistent green hourly candles in a row for the first time in BTC history, making the past week unique through several lenses.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfGEc_yCxYjP3ScsdHZWzG18YUHgxkNq5vkDsY4tyzUGelpd9E-pdwfxISHocjsTjrCs16xq3UPS5lQvnLExGyN4p8Dtfnv9BwyHIA1lrt7w07gkx43pOj4d1lhQmORq8m33AV5rw?key=jqLXOMKC5H0MIUydy2iagSQh" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">From K33’s market report</figcaption></figure>



All of this could mean that Jan. 20 isn’t a sell-the-news event after all, which was a previous possibility.&nbsp;



Back in early December, K33 analyst Vetle Lunde thought we could see <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-100k-breakout-just-the-start">bitcoin peak on Jan. 17</a>, ahead of the inauguration, which would set it up for selling pressure as President-elect Donald Trump once again takes the oath of office.



But, to no one’s surprise, bitcoin marches to the beat of its own drum and a lot of what I’ve written and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-120k-by-christmas">talked about</a> for the past month no longer matters. Don’t worry, I won’t take it personally.&nbsp;



The current setup, K33 noted, is “rigged for unpredictability” which means we all might be in for a bumpy ride over the next few days.&nbsp;



“The overall sensitivity to interest rates over the past month suggests increased importance of Wednesday&#8217;s CPI print. Additionally, notable Trump momentum may still form in the days leading into the inauguration. At current levels, we&#8217;ve rescinded our plan to sell the inauguration. However, given the plan&#8217;s price-dependent nature, a tactical de-risking could regain appeal if prices push meaningfully higher running into the inauguration,” analysts wrote.



We’re not out of the woods yet, and we should all be wary. But, hey, at least it doesn’t seem like we’re peaking yet…right?



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Price action ahead of the inauguration is ‘rigged for unpredictability:’ K33

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Stock futures rose this morning before the open — a move analysts largely attribute to reports that the Trump administration will opt for a gradual approach to tariff increases.&nbsp;



Even though a better-than-expected PPI report on Tuesday helped boost equities early in the session, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes quickly gave back these early gains.&nbsp;



But let’s rewind to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-trump-potential-tariff-policies">conversation on tariffs</a>. Bloomberg after the close yesterday <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/trump-team-studies-gradual-tariff-hikes-under-emergency-powers">reported</a> that Trump’s team is considering ramping up tariffs at a slower pace than many initially thought, potentially by 2% to 5% increases per month. Ideally, the strategy would allow for negotiations and prevent rapidly rising prices.&nbsp;



The vision aligns pretty perfectly with what Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick to lead his Council of Economic Advisors, told us on the Forward Guidance <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65aE9KFMR3Y">podcast</a> a couple months ago.&nbsp;



Back during Trump 1.0 (2018-2019), Miran pointed out, the proposed 25% tariffs on Chinese imports did not come in one fell swoop. The actual ~17% effective rate increase we did implement on China was spread out over 12 months.&nbsp;



“The after-tariff dollar-import price of goods coming from China was practically unchanged,” Miran said on the episode. 



On the campaign trail, Trump proposed a minimum 10% to 20% tariff on all imports, and a 60% minimum rate on those coming from China. 



“In going to 60% tariffs on China or 10% globally, [a gradual] approach becomes even more important,” Miran wrote in a November 2024 <a href="https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf">paper</a> on the global trade system.



If history repeats, we could see similar trade policies come down the line — which are likely to ease investor concern and boost equities.



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Gradual tariff proposal fits with previous Trump strategy 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Markets got a pre-CPI treat on Tuesday in the form of a mildly cool PPI reading.&nbsp;



Producer prices in December rose 0.2%, down slightly from analysts’ projection of a 0.4% rise. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was in line with expectations and unchanged from November (+0.3%).&nbsp;



The report generally sets the stage well for tomorrow’s more-closely-watched CPI reading, slated to be published at 8:30 am ET. Still, analysts caution investors not to take a cool reading as a sign for future rate cuts.&nbsp;



“We’ve seen a stubbornness in inflation over the last few quarters, causing investors to wonder whether the Fed jumped the gun by cutting rates by 100 basis points in the second half of last year,” eToro US investment analyst Brett Kenwell said. “A strong <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/dec-employment-report-leads-stocks-lower">monthly jobs report</a> and a strong ISM services report didn’t help matters, although they do point to a strong economic foundation.”&nbsp;



As a reminder, analysts are calling for headline CPI to come in at 2.9% annually, an increase from November’s 12-month 2.7% reading. Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% for the 12 months ended December.&nbsp;



Looking ahead to March, today’s PPI did slightly increase odds of a 25bps interest rate cut. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 21.6% chance of such a cut, up from 19.4% a day ago.



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Cool-ish PPI reading paves way for CPI report 

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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A federal appeals court took on elements of the SEC v. Coinbase legal battle yesterday, but we’ll need a bit more time to determine the decision’s exact impact.



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-sues-coinbase">SEC sued Coinbase</a> in June 2023 for alleged securities violations. It later denied the crypto exchange’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-denies-coinbase-rulemaking-petition">petition for rulemaking</a> that December. The petition essentially argued that the SEC’s strategy of using existing securities laws to enforce crypto regulation is “unworkable.”



The agency’s response was a single paragraph, the court pointed out. Basically the SEC said it disagreed, noting it “has discretion to determine the timing and priorities of its regulatory agenda.”&nbsp;



Put simply: Agencies can choose between rulemaking and adjudication, Judge Stephanos Bibas wrote in a court <a href="https://aboutblaw.com/bgQt">order</a> filed Monday.



“But they must explain their choice, and the SEC failed to do so,” he added.



The court isn’t ordering the SEC to institute rulemaking proceedings, giving the SEC what some might consider a partial win. The filing adds that the SEC has “reasonably explained that the existing securities law framework is not predicated on the assumption that it will never burden any potential new market participants.”



But the court does believe the SEC’s order was “conclusory and insufficiently reasoned, and thus arbitrary and capricious.”&nbsp;



The solution? Bibas has asked the SEC to explain itself, adding: “It should not give yet another poor explanation in an already-long line of them.”



“We’re reviewing the decision and will determine next steps as appropriate,” an SEC spokesperson told me.



Did you catch that “arbitrary and capricious” phrase in paragraph seven? It’s seldom used in everyday life, but you may recognize it from another case dealing with the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).



Grayscale Investments won that case after the court ruled that the SEC’s rejection of the Grayscale proposal to convert its Bitcoin Trust to an ETF (but approving bitcoin futures funds) was, you guessed it, “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sec-decision-bitcoin-etf">arbitrary and capricious</a>.” The agency did not properly “explain its different treatment of similar products,” judges argued at the time.



A former communications VP at Coinbase worked the legalese into her blunt reaction to the latest court filing:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Coinbase: we asked the SEC for new rules and they said no but didn&#39;t explain why. Third Circuit: SEC, we&#39;re reading the like 3 sentences you wrote declining to help Coinbase and other crypto companies understand the rules better and are inclined to agree with Coinbase anything…&mdash; Rachael Horwitz (@RachaelRad) <a href="https://twitter.com/RachaelRad/status/1878890264141713496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 13, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The Third Circuit’s thoughts come after Coinbase last week <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-howey-question-second-circuit">won its motion</a> for an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-coinbase-motion-interlocutory-appeal">interlocutory appeal</a> on whether crypto assets constitute investment contracts.



Despite the court on Monday not forcing SEC rulemaking at this time, Coinbase execs count the latest opinion as another victory.&nbsp;



Uniswap Labs chief legal officer Katharine Minarik (and ex-deputy general counsel at Coinbase) <a href="https://x.com/MinarikLaw/status/1878872452098396393">called it</a> a “hugely deserved result” that forces the SEC “to truly consider it and respond with some substance. As it should.”



Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad <a href="https://x.com/faryarshirzad/status/1878880099669528786">wrote</a> on X: “It’s not everyday that the courts issue a damning rebuke of a federal agency like [the SEC].” Chief legal officer Paul Grewal <a href="https://x.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1878860619895685283">applauded</a> Judge Bibas&#8217; forceful concurrence, calling it “an impressive piece of work.”



Bibas noted the “caginess” of SEC enforcement against crypto firms without telling them how to comply with the law. He argued such action “creates a serious constitutional problem.”&nbsp;



Sporadically enforcing “ill-fitting rules” against industry entities trying to follow regulations goes beyond fighting fraud, he added.



“It targets a whole industry and risks de facto banning it,” Bibas wrote. “On remand, the SEC must grapple with that problem.”



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‘Arbitrary and capricious’ strikes again

Donovan Choy

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As the hyped Berachain L1 gears up for a mainnet launch, an astounding <a href="https://dune.com/thj/boyco-markets">$1.6 billion</a> of liquidity has been deposited into “<a href="https://blog.berachain.com/blog/rfb-boyco">Boyco</a>,” Berachain’s pre-launch liquidity platform on Ethereum. This flood of liquidity from airdrop farmers would technically make Berachain the 10th largest blockchain by TVL today.



In the past week, four Berachain <a href="https://app.pendle.finance/trade/markets?utm_source=landing&amp;utm_medium=landing&amp;category=berachain">Pendle pools</a> (by Ethena and Etherfi) have already amassed a collective $515 million in TVL. This dwarves the entire TVL of its main competitor Spectra, which has shot up to $225 million since December.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfJtdOTBpXeH1YkRadYnkGAoH153kqs8g1YaVo9QbUdjDk0DrjjV8_2mzIClgL29NxWpJ-eFxTah1ClSaF-_TJS0I9cF06hY-FCP9kfdVwMuBjzYLH9Hh2_KvR0ueS7r6gWwcYzqA?key=gRYVHjONpSTwK9RuY23zByeP" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/spectra-v2?twitter=false&amp;usdInflows=false&amp;medianApy=false&amp;staking=false">DefiLlama</a></figcaption></figure>



The largest Berachain Pendle market “liquidBeraBTC” (TVL of $271 million) is accumulating points across eight (yes, you read that correctly) different protocols, and four of them aren’t even live yet. Withdrawals are also locked for 90 days on mainnet launch, but that isn’t stopping airdrop farmers. This rabid pre-launch speculation makes Pendle akin to an ICO platform used by projects to bootstrap their tokens.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXewmJxMP9-IrAkrdGi5cJ38dRA-xFNUoedEPV_wI5CtWKUPfOPuFUpluxMjDpLDtPPRJxmKlu9XOA5ytFVMk6-mn6eMHhSERnq35DymyPL8jLqEVbBMDavItJFsaQk3_aNGq1KTGg?key=gRYVHjONpSTwK9RuY23zByeP" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/pendle_fi/status/1876975957145510273">Pendle</a></figcaption></figure>



The YT for liquidBeraBTC is projected to return a 1,575% APY over three months, based on <a href="https://x.com/PendleIntern/status/1877674547362848949/photo/1">@PendleIntern</a>’s estimates, but beware the host of assumptions around projected FDV, TVL and airdrop allocations.



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Berachain gets flooded with $1.6B in pre-launch liquidity

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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The ICF’s 2024 Cross-Chain Interoperability Report highlights the growth of cross-chain ecosystems, the role of key interoperability protocols and emerging trends shaping the future of decentralized networks.



As of October 2024 (the latest data the ICF included), total transaction volume across the top interoperability protocols exceeded $41 billion. Ethereum continues to dominate flows in nominal terms, leading both outflows (47.9%) and inflows (38.9%) across various blockchains.&nbsp;



The most active cross-chain route is from Ethereum to Arbitrum, the report notes, with a total volume of $10.7 billion. This underlines Ethereum’s central position in facilitating the movement of assets between networks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Key protocols and emerging trends</h2>



There are several major players in the cross-chain interoperability space. The ICF tallied October’s total value locked (TVL) across 43 interoperability protocols at $8 billion.



In terms of connectivity, the Interchain’s home-grown Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol has led the field by connecting 117 blockchains, though more recent protocols Hyperlane (at 120 chains) and LayerZero (connecting 114 chains) have caught up.&nbsp;



Circle’s CCTP established itself as the go-to for high volume cross-chain transactions, matching IBC for monthly active addresses upwards of $1.5 million.



A key trend identified in the report is the rise of intent-centric bridging protocols. These protocols, such as Stargate and Across, allow users to specify their desired outcomes (e.g., an asset transfer from one blockchain to another) without worrying about the underlying technical details of the transaction path.



“Intent-centric bridging protocols have emerged as the preferred method for quick and cheap cross-chain asset transfers,” the report explains, thus underscoring their growing importance in improving user experience and streamlining cross-chain operations.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Future innovation and challenges</h2>



The report also points to the increasing interest in zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) as a tool for enhancing scalability and security in blockchain interoperability. ZKPs allow for the verification of transactions across different networks without relying on third-party validators, thus reducing costs and improving efficiency. As ZKPs continue to develop, they are expected to play a significant role in the next phase of blockchain interoperability, helping to address some of the challenges faced by existing protocols.



Fragmentation remains a significant challenge across the space. As new networks proliferate, interoperability becomes more complex. While interoperability protocols have made strides, the sheer diversity of blockchain ecosystems — including different consensus mechanisms, data structures and security models — presents barriers to seamless integration, the report notes.



Despite the progress of solutions like IBC and LayerZero, there is still no universal bridge connecting all the top chains, particularly when it comes to communication between Ethereum rollup solutions and other ecosystems.



This lack of uniformity hinders scalability as protocols designed for specific networks may struggle to adapt to others. Without addressing these fragmentation issues, the promise of a fully interconnected blockchain ecosystem cannot be realized. As the industry evolves, finding ways to connect disparate ecosystems will be critical to unlock the full potential of dapps.



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ICF reports on cross-chain progress

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Given the volatility we saw yesterday, I thought it might be a good time to do a mini temp check.



We saw bitcoin briefly drop below $90,000 on Monday, and this morning we’re back up over $96,000. 



The volatility seems like it’s here to stay, perhaps until Inauguration Day. ETH, shadowing bitcoin’s movements, also took a tumble before regaining momentum.&nbsp;



And then there’s top AI agent coin AI16z, which is up 21% in the past 24 hours, having bounced after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-market-wipeout">undergoing its own selloff</a>. Ah, the diversity of crypto. There’s truly nothing like it.&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s sudden drop didn’t exactly worry Unity Wallet’s James Toledano.&nbsp;



&#8220;The current price action may appear concerning but for those of us who have been in the space for a long time, it is simply business as usual. It doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the bull run either,” he explained.&nbsp;



“The inauguration of President-elect Trump is just seven days away and could be a pivotal moment, with markets anticipating announcements of pro-crypto policies that might spark renewed buying interest. Institutional accumulation, as reflected in falling exchange reserves also supports the view that demand remains strong despite low trading volumes.”



Pairing that with what we’ve been told by Ledn’s John Glover, we very well may close out this month with a run. Glover thinks we could see bitcoin move 20-30% higher in the next few weeks, especially given that the $91,000 level seems to be a decent support level.&nbsp;



I am once again asking for you to be patient, especially given that we’re only a week out from the new administration.



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Don’t panic: Bitcoin’s price action is ‘business as usual’

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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You’ve probably heard by now that ETH is a cursed asset. Doomed.&nbsp;



Maybe you’ve read tweets that say Ethereum is destined to go the way of Intel — a stock that has collapsed in value by two-thirds over the past five years while competitors (Nvidia and AMD) have thrived by comparison.



It’s a take that only works if you focus solely on price and ignore how much activity <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1866165937319399705">persists</a> on <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1870159763251835367">Ethereum</a> and its <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1867705603357127054">surrounding</a> web of layer-2s and layer-3s.



Ether has only gained 30% in the past year while its direct rival, SOL, has about doubled.



Even XRP has easily beaten ETH over the bull market to date. XRP is now up more than 600% since the bottom of the last bear market in November 2022.&nbsp;



BTC has otherwise gained about 500% and SOL almost 1,500%. ETH does appear spookily dull by comparison.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1381" height="996" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-96190" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=1381 1381w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=356 356w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=362 362w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=304 304w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1381px) 100vw, 1381px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">At least ETH has beaten BNB</figcaption></figure>



Here’s an alternative theory: The relative overperformance of coins like SOL and XRP has nothing to do with ETH.&nbsp;



Let’s start with XRP. Ripple Labs’ ongoing clash with the SEC (which started in December 2020) had sidelined XRP for practically this entire market cycle, not to mention its underperformance through the 2021 bull run.



So, whatever gains XRP made in light of Trump’s win in November has more to do with catching up with the market than anything particularly special about the asset itself.



As for SOL, it pays to look back at how the top end of crypto really looked over the years.



Generally, the top three coins have stayed more-or-less the same since <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20160701/">2016</a>: BTC, ETH and then XRP.



In <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20170101/">2017</a>, the next most valuable were litecoin (LTC) and monero (XMR). It was those, plus bitcoin cash (BCH) and cardano (ADA) in <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20180101">2018</a>; EOS in <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20190101">2019</a>; BNB in <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20200101">2020</a>.



LTC is now in 27th place — much further down in the market — while monero in 37th and bitcoin cash 23rd.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc_Mt0EYZ-i8aHFXOHJeo4trZ5WqQyDVJAk3W9O_ezr__h-RXwpmiJKqxdlqDSSVRsv4WYLSnr46okdR2F8BQ4hF7cyWP8tNnpiuUk2LxKmAKT1TQQ7zlC9zDcbklyR6ajb49IIQw?key=FE5tRTq1iuwsq0q9VzVobGdQ" alt=""/></figure>



Compare the chart above to the first one, which only mapped price performance. It tracks the market caps of the top end of the market — and it makes clear just how much smaller all those coins are to ETH.&nbsp;



It’s only natural that they’d outperform ETH at certain parts of the cycle. While liquidity doesn’t necessarily map to market capitalization, smaller assets generally need much less fresh capital to move the needle that far.



It’s also not a coincidence that LTC, XMR and BCH, all bitcoin alternatives, have fallen off so dramatically between cycles.



Bitcoin has won the race as a store of value and stablecoins emerged to better fulfil the digital payments use case than litecoin.



Whatever mind and market share the major coins from yesteryear — the ones that never found product-market-fit at scale — may have simply been transferred to Solana.



So, the Solana renaissance has little do with the anticipated demise of Ethereum, and more to do with the shrinking significance of much older coins.&nbsp;



As for whether Ethereum will also become one of those “much older coins” sometime down the line — handwaiving that concern requires entirely different cope. Let me get back to you.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Ethereum cope to counter worries that ETH is doomed

Digital Asset staking has a problem.



Major institutional players increasingly want to participate, but most of today’s staking providers aren’t regulatory or enterprise-friendly. The status quo is infrastructure pieced together by small, sometimes inexperienced teams on centralized Big Tech clouds that are not tuned for digital assets – nor engineered to meet the regulatory compliance standards that major players like BlackRock demand. The traditional financial world has long-established standards for robust risk management strategies crucial to fulfilling institutional needs, and their service providers in the decentralized financial world must meet these requirements.



And this is only the beginning. There are several essentials that every institution must consider when evaluating staking options. This guide covers the top five, including:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Multi-Stake: diversification of providers, hardware &amp; approach</li>



<li>Security of people, processes &amp; technology</li>



<li>Service &amp; reporting</li>



<li>Custodial integrations &amp; relationships</li>



<li>Regulatory compliance, especially with audited practices like SOC 2 or ISO27001 – and CCSS</li>
</ul>



We’ll first explore why diversification is the foundation of a resilient staking strategy and how the remaining pillars build on it.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Diversification: The Cornerstone Of Institutional Staking &amp; Your Reassurance</h1>



Following the spectacular collapse of FTX, institutions and sophisticated holders alike took a step back to revisit their custody practices. A paramount consideration was the shift to custodian diversification. As highlighted by Boston Consulting Group, diversification minimizes the impact of a single point of failure across market, counterparty, regulatory, and security risks.1



With innovation thriving and new providers continuing to emerge, the institutional staking industry sector has adopted a diversification theme, focusing on similar risk mitigation considerations.&nbsp;



It extends beyond service providers – a diversity of core infrastructure, hardware, networks, ownership, and staking approaches is also essential. As with telecom and data networks in the early 2000s, reliance on “diverse” providers that ride on the same physical layer undermines true diversity.



Reliance on “diverse” providers that ride on the same physical layer undermines true diversity.



For example, operators (such as the largest staking providers) that rely heavily on “big tech” hyperscaler cloud infrastructure (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure, etc.) face centralization, unnecessary third-party risk, and cost management concerns that are only avoided by a handful of specialist bare-metal staking operations such as <a href="https://globalstake.io/">GlobalStake</a>. IBM highlights the security benefits of bare metal solutions in critical applications.2 Bespoke bare metal staking providers run their own infrastructure and control their own networks – purchasing and owning equipment outright, fully controlling and tuning hardware, software, and network routing, and operating through distributed global data centers rather than renting from big tech and third-party suppliers. Pro tip: If your provider says they use bare metal, ask them for specifics. Do they own it?&nbsp; Do they manage it directly? Which networks (or geographies) do they serve with bare metal?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Critical Benefits Of Diversification For Institutions</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Optimized Returns</h3>



Diversification leverages the strengths of different partners, not only mitigating risks but potentially leading to higher overall returns. CoinDesk&#8217;s annual report emphasizes how performance can vary significantly between providers.3



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Improved Regulatory Compliance</h3>



Regulatory landscapes are constantly in flux. Diversification helps navigate potential changes that could impact staked assets in specific jurisdictions, as KPMG&#8217;s report on blockchain regulations highlights, reassuring you that your staked assets comply with the latest regulations relevant to local geography.4



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Multi-Stake: The New Standard for Institutional Staking Resilience</h1>



In the traditional finance sector, hedge funds have adopted a &#8220;multi-prime&#8221; approach—engaging multiple prime brokers—to mitigate counterparty risk, enhance access to diverse services, and optimize operational efficiency.5 The practice became critically necessary after the 2008 financial crisis.&nbsp;



As the cryptocurrency industry matures, institutional investors must adopt a &#8220;multi-stake&#8221; strategy—diversifying their staking activities across multiple providers—to ensure resilience and optimize their participation in the evolving digital asset ecosystem. This approach is critical for several reasons:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Risk Mitigation: Distributing staked assets among various providers significantly reduces the impact of potential failures or performance issues associated with a single provider.</li>



<li>Service Optimization: Different staking providers offer unique benefits, such as varying fee structures, enhanced security measures, or superior customer support. Engaging multiple providers enables institutions to capitalize on the best aspects of each.</li>



<li>Operational Resilience: A multi-stake approach ensures continuity in staking operations by not relying upon a single entity. This resilience is essential for maintaining consistent rewards and meeting network participation requirements.</li>



<li>Improved Regulatory Compliance: Regulatory landscapes are constantly in flux. Diversification helps navigate potential changes that could impact staked assets in specific jurisdictions, as KPMG&#8217;s report on blockchain regulations highlights, reassuring you that your staked assets comply with the latest regulations relevant to local geography.4</li>
</ul>



By adopting the multi-stake model, institutional crypto holders align with well-established financial practices, ensuring a more secure, efficient, and scalable staking environment as the industry progresses.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Choosing The Right Staking Partners: Beyond Diversification</h2>



Once diversification—the most critical foundational staking pillar—becomes a priority for an institution, the other essentials become clear, helping to refine the list of options and choosing the right partners to work with.



Here is how to consider key factors impacting your overall staking strategy:



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Security of People, Processes, &amp; Technology:&nbsp;</h3>



Ensure your provider follows industry best practices across its enterprise. These include background checks of all employees, creating repeatable and defined processes that remove risks at every turn, and ensuring the technology keeps pace with changes. You should also understand how heavily your provider relies upon outside contractors versus full-time staff.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Service, Reporting, Insurance, &amp; Flexibility:&nbsp;</h3>



Far too many staking providers are hidden behind a wall of web applications and automated help desks (if any). Being able to speak with a capable account manager is an important attribute, especially when considering the daily and monthly reporting that institutions must regularly deliver to their management, investors, regulators, and accountants.



Staking providers should be able to provide detailed, tailored reporting on staking activity. Ideally, this should manifest in an offering that provides real-time dashboards, customized reports, and actionable insights into staking performance, helping institutional decision-makers evaluate and refine strategies. While best practices for node management substantially limit the risks of losing digital assets, the most capable providers typically offer slashing insurance from the highest-rated carriers. Finally, flexibility in deployment configurations and the capacity to support bespoke client applications can be a significant value add.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Custodial Integrations, Self-Custodial Technology Solutions &amp; Relationships:</h3>



Credible, qualified custodians serve as the foundation of secure institutional staking. Partnering with trusted custodians or leveraging self-custodial technology solutions, such as BitGo—which offers both options—ensures a seamless and secure staking experience. These partnerships enable adherence to best practices and foster trust throughout the staking process. Additionally, many global custodians enhance their offerings by utilizing advanced custodial enablement platforms like Ledger Enterprise, further reinforcing the security and efficiency of institutional staking solutions. As Forbes highlights, the involvement of trusted custodians is essential for meeting stringent security standards and aligning with institutional expectations.6



Equally important is seamless technical integration with institutional-grade custodial platforms. Providers should prioritize compatibility to streamline onboarding processes, minimize operational friction, and enhance the overall user experience for institutional clients. By ensuring a smooth and secure connection between staking services and custodial platforms, providers can better meet the needs of sophisticated investors and solidify their position as trusted partners.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">New, Old, &amp; Niche Asset Support</h3>



Crypto moves fast. A key distinguishing factor for an institutional staking provider is its ability to swiftly support new tokens. A valuable staking partner will promptly fulfill new token requests and establish deep integrations with emerging protocols. Custodial connectivity empowers institutions to rapidly adapt to market shifts and capitalize on new opportunities without being hindered by technical delays or inflexible integration processes.



For instance, several providers in the industry, like Figment, GlobalStake, Kiln, and others, demonstrate their capability in this area by working directly with protocol teams. This direct involvement enables quick and accurate support for new tokens and unique requirements, ensuring any updates or new features are implemented precisely, thereby reducing the risk of errors that could affect staking outcomes. They also provide dedicated and responsive account personnel who work closely with institutional clients to support new and existing assets, highlighting their commitment as a reliable partner in the rapidly evolving digital asset landscape.



Your best staking partner does more than meet today’s needs – it anticipates tomorrow’s opportunities.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Staying at the Cutting Edge of Staking Innovation</h3>



Your best staking partner does more than meet today’s needs – it anticipates tomorrow’s opportunities. A true partner ensures institutions remain at the forefront of staking developments by integrating the latest advancements, such as Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) for enhanced liquidity and MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) boosting for optimal returns. Innovations like proof-of-stake mechanisms combined with proof-of-work elements in hybrid protocols and secure storage solutions ensure robust performance and security. Advanced storage protocols, such as decentralized data storage networks, further complement staking by safeguarding validator data and key material with unparalleled redundancy and resilience. From yield enhancements and slashing protection to protocol governance participation and emerging storage innovations, a cutting-edge partner ensures clients capitalize on every advantage the evolving staking ecosystem offers. Is your provider committed to pioneering advancements and driving institutional success?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Compliance With Audited Practices:</h2>



For institutions, compliance is non-negotiable.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Audited Peace of Mind</h3>



Full SOC 2 Type 2 certification is critical as a starting point, particularly for those operating in the U.S. market. To instill confidence in the rigor of their internal digital asset protections, staking providers must adhere to other recognized standards such as ISO27001 with the absolute requirement to become certified by the Cryptocurrency Security Standard (CCSS) – ensuring safety across crypto-specific processes and technologies, wallets, validators, and key management, et al.



Research by Gallagher highlights the trust and security benefits of SOC 2 compliance for service providers.7 Regular, independent audits are essential to demonstrate a commitment to evolving regulations and ensure transparency and operational reliability. These practices reassure stakeholders that their assets are secure and always managed with the highest integrity.



Operations and technology transparency are paramount. While some node operators rely on proprietary methods, providers offering visibility into their operating procedures and network principles stand out. Opaque, black-box systems do not engender client confidence.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Environmental Sustainability</h3>



Beyond compliance and transparency, environmental sustainability has emerged as a valuable bonus, particularly as institutional investor priorities shift toward environmental responsibility. The crypto industry has faced sustainability critiques for over a decade, making it increasingly important for institutions to align with environmentally responsible providers. By integrating sustainability into operations, providers differentiate themselves and help institutions future-proof their strategies in a regulatory environment rapidly evolving toward greener mandates.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Here’s How to Build A Resilient Staking Strategy</h1>



Institutions require more than just basic staking services.



A resilient strategy begins with diversification—spreading activity across reputable providers and incorporating self-hosted bare-metal infrastructure to minimize risk and provide physical diversity in addition to provider diversity.



GlobalStake is the premier bare metal institutional staking platform, delivering comprehensive solutions designed with the utmost security, performance, and regulatory compliance in mind. Unlike providers reliant on third-party systems or cloud infrastructure, GlobalStake operates its own globally distributed, bare-metal network. This unique approach fosters true decentralization, enhances control, and mitigates regulatory and cloud-specific vulnerabilities. Backed by SOC 2 Type 2 and CCSS certifications, GlobalStake adheres to the highest operational security standards, providing institutions with the utmost confidence as they stake assets such as $SOL, $ETH, and $DOT. Seamless integrations with leading custodial platforms like Ledger Enterprise, Cobo Custody, and BitGo empower institutions to seamlessly manage their staking operations within their existing, familiar ecosystems.



With a commitment to sustainability and transparency, GlobalStake is a carbon-negative node operator aligning with responsible investment principles. The platform&#8217;s decentralized infrastructure, utilizing diverse hardware, geographies, and networks, minimizes single points of failure, enhancing security and reliability. GlobalStake empowers institutions to optimize staking returns through responsive service, flexible and competitive pricing, robust custodial integrations, tailored cutting-edge staking strategies, and comprehensive insurance coverage provided by top-rated carriers. This comprehensive approach enables institutions to build resilient, long-term solutions for their digital asset management needs.



For our Blockworks readers, discover why institutions like yours trust GlobalStake. To see the difference GlobalStake makes, book a one-on-one consultation with its experts. To request a meeting, <a href="mailto:institutions@globalstake.io">email the institutional partners team </a>at<a href="mailto:institutions@globalstake.io"> institutions@globalstake.io</a>.



GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at <a href="http://globalstake.io/">globalstake.io</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Citations</h2>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Boston Consulting Group, &#8220;Managing Risk for the Next Wave of Digital Currencies.&#8221; https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/managing-risk-for-next-wave-of-digital-currencies</li>



<li>IBM, &#8220;Bare Metal Servers vs Virtual Servers.&#8221; <a href="https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/bare-metal-servers-vs-virtual-servers">https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/bare-metal-servers-vs-virtual-servers</a> </li>



<li>CoinDesk, &#8220;Consensus Annual Report 2023.&#8221; </li>



<li>KPMG, &#8220;Crypto and Digital Assets: Regulatory Challenges.&#8221; https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2022/ten-key-regulatory-challenges-2022-crypto-digital-assets.html</li>



<li>Merrill Lynch, “The Multi-Prime Broker Environment: Overcoming the Challenges and Reaping the Benefits <a href="https://www.opalesque.com/files/MultiPrimeBrokerEnvironment.pdf">https://www.opalesque.com/files/MultiPrimeBrokerEnvironment.pdf</a></li>



<li>Forbes, &#8220;The Institutional Guide for Securing Digital Assets.&#8221; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/30/the-institutional-guide-for-securing-digital-assets/">https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/30/the-institutional-guide-for-securing-digital-assets/</a></li>



<li>Gallagher, &#8220;SOC 2 Type 2 Certification: What it is and Why it matters.&#8221; <a href="https://security.gallagher.com/en/Blog/SOC-2-Type-2-certification-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters">https://security.gallagher.com/en/Blog/SOC-2-Type-2-certification-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters</a> </li>
</ol>



This content is sponsored and does not serve as an endorsement by Blockworks. The veracity of this content has not been verified and should not serve as financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

The Top Five Digital Asset Staking Pillars Institutions Can’t Ignore

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Donald Trump is yet to take office, but the presumed increase in crypto M&amp;A deals under his presidency already appears to be underway.



Crypto on- and off-ramp platform MoonPay has acquired Solana payments startup Helio in an all-equity deal valued at $175 million, Helio CEO Stijn Paumen confirmed today. Paumen added that the entire Helio team will be joining MoonPay. There could be more M&amp;A action on the horizon, especially in the emerging field of crypto payments. Two other founders in the crypto payments space confirmed to me that they’ve seen recent acquisition interest.



MoonPay is a popular service for users trying to purchase crypto using bank accounts, credit cards or PayPal. Helio is more e-commerce focused, most recently making headlines for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/helio-upgrades-solana-pay-plugin-for-shopify">its Shopify plugin</a> that lets merchants accept payments via the Solana network.&nbsp;



In acquiring Helio, MoonPay is showing an aspiration to expand beyond buying and selling crypto into providing infrastructure for people to pay for goods and services with crypto, Ben Mills, CEO of the on-ramp company Meso, told me. By combining forces, MoonPay is becoming one of the most vaunted outfits in onchain payments, Paumen said.&nbsp;



MoonPay’s Helio deal is one of the crypto sector’s more notable recent acquisitions, joining <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-bridge-solana-vc">Stripe’s October purchase</a> of the stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge for a reported $1.1 billion. It feels notable that both of these deals involved crypto payments — which is the technology’s original use case but not one that has caught on very broadly just yet.



Crypto still believes in payments. In Lightspeed’s recent Solana Founders poll, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-founders-survey-responses">a plurality voted</a> that payments are Solana’s most underrated sector.



Still, how big of a deal this all is remains a matter of perspective. Stripe buying Bridge was a validation for crypto because Stripe isn’t a crypto company, Mills said.



The intra-industry deal of MoonPay buying Helio “feels more like internal consolidation which is probably healthy, but doesn’t tell us much,” he added.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

MoonPay acquires Solana startup to grow payments services

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



After hitting the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-bitcoin-etf-approval">one-year anniversary</a> of US spot bitcoin ETFs launching, Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart told me that even the more bullish firms behind these products were surprised by the reception.



Matt Horne, Fidelity Investments’ head of digital asset strategists, confirmed to me as much.&nbsp;



He referenced demand exceeding the company’s “optimistic” expectations across retail investors, advisers and institutions. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) — with $12.2 billion of net inflows — trails only BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in that category ($37.7 billion).



But is the bitcoin ETF market due for a sophomore slump?&nbsp;



Fidelity has so far had “productive conversations” across all client segments when it comes to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fidelity-report-stagflation-investors">rising bitcoin ETF usage</a> in 2025, Horne explained.



He also said about the 16-year-old asset: “A longer history will allow for continued portfolio research and a stronger understanding of investors’ risk tolerance and bitcoin’s role in a portfolio.”



Horne mentioned the “adoption spectrum” of various client types. Related, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said during an X space Friday — using terms from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” — that we’re stepping out of the early adopter phase and into the “early majority.”&nbsp;



Then, borrowing Winston Churchill’s words to describe bitcoin ETF adoption, Horsley added it feels like we’re at “the end of the beginning.” Exploring bitcoin as an opportunity remains “on the to-do lists” across firms within the $30 trillion <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/financial-advisers-crypto-adoption-survey">US wealth management sector</a>, he noted.&nbsp;



But as Zacks Investment Research’s Neena Mishra told me Friday, whether BTC ETF inflows in 2025 can match/beat last year is likely to hinge on performance.



US bitcoin funds suffered outflows of $569 million and $149 million on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, (markets were closed Thursday to honor Jimmy Carter) amid the BTC price plunge mentioned earlier.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Casey brought up the possible US strategic bitcoin reserve — something Seyffart said would drive ETF demand. But a BTC pullback (and outflows) could come if Trump and the pro-crypto Congress fail to execute on crypto-related promises.



“Though as more traditional investors use these ETFs, they will likely be a support on bitcoin&#8217;s price as they rebalance in downtrends by buying more,” Seyffart said. “Conversely, they will also likely be sellers in uptrends as they rebalance to their target allocation levels over the longer term.”



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Bitcoin ETFs: Better year or sophomore slump?

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Back in July, President-elect Donald Trump floated the idea of a strategic bitcoin reserve.&nbsp;



“As you know, most of the bitcoin currently held by the United States government was obtained through law enforcement action,” Trump said during a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">campaign stop</a> at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-2024-nashville-recap">in Nashville</a>. “You know that they took it from you.”&nbsp;



“[We will] keep 100% of all bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires” in a “stockpile,” he added.&nbsp;



After Trump left the stage, Wyoming US Senator and long-time crypto advocate <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">Cynthia Lummis</a> appeared, wielding a stack of papers.&nbsp;



“Here it is,” she said, holding up the bundle. “This is the Bitcoin Reserve Bill.”&nbsp;



The crowd, waiting in their MAGA gear and “Make Bitcoin Great Again” hats for hours to see Trump and Lummis, cheered.&nbsp;



Lummis brought the bill to the Senate floor at the end of July, but it didn’t budge. Now, as we kick off a new congressional term, Lummis is expected to revive the legislation — ideally with a co-sponsor or two this time around.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-as-a-potential-us-reserve-asset">bitcoin reserve</a> has become one of the more <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">talked-about promises</a> Trump has made to the crypto industry. Other pledges made on the campaign trail have either become moot or are too subjective to assess.&nbsp;



For example, Trump vowed to fire “Gary Gensler on day one,” an executive action that legal experts doubted he could even do. It doesn’t matter anyway, because the SEC chair has already <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">announced his resignation</a>.&nbsp;



Trump also has sworn that his “digital asset advisory council,” to be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">led by David Sacks</a>, will create a “fair regulatory regime.” We’ll leave it to his numerous crypto donors to settle on a definition of “fair.”&nbsp;



But the bitcoin reserve, and whether or not it comes to fruition, is something we can quantify.&nbsp;



I’m a little uncertain about just how much the industry cares about the US government holding bitcoin. I’d imagine there are some exchanges and custodians itching to get their hands on what will no doubt be a lucrative government contract. Plus, the existence of a stockpile would position the US as more crypto-friendly, which the industry, of course, wouldn’t mind. A rising tide floats all boats.&nbsp;



I’m still skeptical that there’s enough political capital behind the reserve bill for it to move out of committee, assuming Lummis does in fact reintroduce it. Hill staffers and lobbyists I talk to tend to mention legislation around market structure (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-act-fit21-with-bipartisan-support">à la FIT21</a>) and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-new-age-in-2025">stablecoins</a> far more often.&nbsp;



Plus, the Senate is going to be swamped with confirmation hearings in the coming weeks and months, and Republicans have laid out a big —&nbsp;and likely expensive — agenda on taxes, immigration and more.&nbsp;



A fun test for how likely a strategic reserve is will be whether or not the DOJ auctions off around $6.5 billion worth of bitcoin that it recently received the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-gov-unloading-bitcoin-process">greenlight to sell</a>.&nbsp;



The court ruling allowing the auction (but not requiring it) came at the end of 2024, so we’ll see if the US Marshals Service undertakes a sale before Trump takes office next week.



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Tis the season for campaign promises follow-throughs

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If you count the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-goatse-memecoin">launch of GOAT</a> as the birthdate of the AI agent meta, then this subsector is about three months old. Over this short span, the AI agent market has ballooned to a $20 billion market cap with relatively few tier-1 CEX listings.



That’s nuts, especially since AI agents are still <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agents-are-not-agentic">predicated on</a> promised — rather than current — utility.



It’s perhaps unsurprising then that the agent market corrected sharply over the weekend, showing a 43.5% drawdown to $11.3 billion since its Jan. 6 top.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfe8RiIhVW1_nZIQYCfxu5H3PhPm3UI4rwHXPw5Yyu3MIqfeTAi3CVAHUJ0PE3SrzCPt-sWWD-FBY-vgNnCw-bdMo9R-IGI3Mh_PTKFkpGyEoNwQ5TXr1m6t13kAniZgqoOZ3XGQA?key=CDTzgM_SYicJk8C4XXfNtdbE" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.cookie.fun/">cookie.fun</a></figcaption></figure>



The top AI agent tokens haven’t been spared the guillotine. In the last seven days, the largest three AI agent tokens by marketcap — VIRTUAL, AI16Z and FARTCOIN, are down 46%, 52%, and 42%, respectively.



AIXBT, the fifth-largest agent token, showed the greatest resilience, with a drawdown of 28%.



It’s a bloodbath. So what? Expect agents to continue <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-crypto-vs-dotcom-bubble">dominating 2025</a>.



Crypto’s obsession with AI is undeniable at this point. It’s riding the hottest tech sector of the decade and still dominates Twitter sentiment among rabid casino speculators.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeeqcz7QAWEz9rxdTyn6byV0SZmptA3t1yRijIq-2NsaprPHUvd11nNjcsGFjmOOVQwn86HwqERLfMAIZcfbNnSBAIzcxEQ6lydwcyn9WOthwEa1PIkFA44bilxYLW-aleNJbkK?key=CDTzgM_SYicJk8C4XXfNtdbE" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/_kaitoai/status/1877695766594011402">Kaito</a></figcaption></figure>



The billion dollar question then is: How high can the AI agent market go?



At $11.3 billion, AI agent tokens make up about 0.34% of the total crypto market cap today.



If we assume a 40% growth of the total crypto market cap to $5 trillion, and AI coins take a 5% slice of that pie (DeFi dominance peaked at <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TOTALDEFI.D/">7.69%</a> in 2022), then you can expect $250 billion as a bull case, says <a href="https://kelxyz.substack.com/p/letters-3-the-case-for-agent-networks">kel.xyz</a>.



Less bullish estimates by <a href="https://x.com/davidnage/status/1878442581794668769?s=46&amp;t=ywALktyM5ZCyt-zigN5Big">David Nage</a> of Arca fund projects a range of $93 billion to $170 billion.



With this framework in mind, the “safe” bet is to hold the ecosystem majors of the AI meta: VIRTUAL, AI16Z and ZEREBRO… right?



The problem is these inter-narratives rotate faster than anyone can keep up with. There’s hardly any guarantee that the “blue chip” agent coins today maintain their dominance over months, or even weeks from now.



In the span of a year, the story of “why AI crypto” went from a beta play on Nvidia and OpenAI to AI memecoins, to AI agents, to AI agent frameworks, AI investment DAOs and AI agent <a href="https://www.blocmates.com/articles/what-are-ai-agent-swarms---the-next-chapter-in-ai-agent-evolution">swarms</a>.



As of last week, the most recent chapter in this tale is “<a href="https://x.com/0xNairolf/status/1878766177784418641">DeFAI</a>,” i.e., DeFi + AI. I interpret this as an insistence that “AI has real utility, look to its DeFi use cases!”



I’m reminded of a tweet from Daily Ape’s founder Darren Lau. If you’d made the bold bet that AI would sweep crypto markets and scoop up a bag of major AI tokens like TAO, RNDR and AKASH in early 2024, you’d still be sitting on a loss year to date.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">imagine you decided AI was gonna be THE narrative Jan-March 2024 when AI started pumping, you thought ok nice i&#39;ll just buy the majors of AI for this cycle TAO: average buy 450$ (January-March 2024 period average) -&gt; Break-even Dec 2024 FET: avg buy 1.6$ -&gt; down 20% Dec 2024…&mdash; Darren Lau (@Darrenlautf) <a href="https://twitter.com/Darrenlautf/status/1870556657509650809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 21, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Winning at the AI agent meta then requires one to pick the right players in an ever-changing playbook of questionable utility. Is it any wonder crypto traders get rekt?



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AI agent sector suffers 44% market cap wipeout

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Binance has barely skipped a beat since CZ stepped down.



And it’s not like the odds aren’t stacked against it — even to the point that much of the world outside crypto has been outright hostile to it.



The past few years have seen rolling bans and other jurisdictional roadblocks across parts of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-exchange-binance-stop-accepting-new-users-uk-2023-10-16/">Europe</a>, <a href="https://www.kapronasia.com/blockchain-research-menu-item/despite-binance-ban-crypto-demand-is-resilient-in-the-philippines.html">Asia</a> and Africa. That includes a grueling <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nigeria-drops-charges-against-binance-exec">eight-month ordeal</a> in Nigerian jail for Tigran Gambaryan, Binance’s head of financial crime compliance who’d been arrested on spurious money laundering charges.



Then there’s increasing competition within the crypto space. Rival offshore crypto exchanges including Bybit, Bitget and Gate.io have all grown their footprints to fill parts of the sizable gap left by FTX.



Still, Binance persists as the number one venue by trade volume. CoinGecko <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges">points</a> to $9 billion in normalized daily volume on Binance right now. Bybit is a distant second with $3 billion, followed by Coinbase with $2.6 billion.



Binance’s ability to serve memecoin traders what they want seems to be its key to success — at least at this part of the cycle.



In fact, Binance has effectively cornered the memecoin game: Kaiko in December <a href="https://research.kaiko.com/reports/quarterly-report-q4-2024">calculated</a> that the exchange was controlling 44% of memecoin volume on CEXs.



Empire’s Jason Yanowitz brought some of this up with new(ish) CEO Richard Teng on today’s podcast episode:



“I thought you guys would have to stop doing a lot of the things [Binance did] to get to the place it got to: Listing things early, getting out to new markets early,” Yanowitz said.



“But you guys are still listing a lot of memecoins. You’re still very early to listings. You have new Launchpool projects in the last couple of months — Binance has given users a lot more trading opportunities. It kind of goes against what I thought would happen.”



One <a href="https://dune.com/oladee/binance-2024-listing">dashboard</a> tracking new tokens listed on Binance in 2024 lists 37 coins, nine of which are memes including HMSTR, BABYDOGE, TURBO and DOGS. The platform also recently <a href="https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/binance-futures-will-launch-usd%E2%93%A2-margined-griffainusdt-ai16zusdt-and-zerebrousdt-perpetual-contracts-with-up-to-75x-leverage-2e58ae9924344fbf878fcd559bfdec81">added</a> perps for AI coins — next-gen memecoins — AI16Z, ZEREBRO and GRIFFAIN with up to 75x leverage.



Teng responded by stating that Binance lists fewer coins compared to many of its competitors, itself a function of the listing processes that protect the interest of its users.



“If you look at the number of coins that we list, it’s around 600. We are very, very stringent with the coin selection process on that front. We have published the listing criteria and we ringfence the listing team so much that we give them the time and space to do their independent due diligence.”



Co-host Santiago Santos then probed for an answer on listing fees — one of the last great lucrative aspects of crypto exchanges still opaque to outsiders.



“[Binance’s] distribution is unparalleled — when you think about the overall fees [for Launchpad listings], is it like a dollar amount or a notional amount — is it a token supply amount, and if so, I’m curious how that has evolved over time,” Santos said.



Teng declined to comment by saying that those details were very specific. Better luck next time, I guess.



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Binance hasn’t slowed since CZ — neither have the memecoin launches

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The crypto credit market hasn’t quite recovered since 2022, when we saw the downfall of most of the major players.



Honestly, perhaps that’s been for the best given how much damage was done.



But it’s not an area of crypto that we can expect to stay dormant, especially if crypto’s truly set for another golden year (or even four).&nbsp;



Clearly, a lot of changes will have to take place. And there’ll have to be far more transparency.&nbsp;



Data platform Accountable, which operates in the undercollaterized crypto credit space, is taking steps to perhaps be one of the first successful lending firms post-2022.&nbsp;



The “main value capture is being able to prove, without any API key sharing, any wallet sharing, what&#8217;s happening in the centralized venue — such as banks, brokerage accounts, exchanges, custodians — that the lenders or any other user can basically prove I&#8217;m financially healthy, I&#8217;m operating as intended,” Accountable CEO Wojtek Pawlowski told me.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Accountable Secures $2.3M Funding to Enhance Transparency in Crypto Lending and DeFi Platforms. With the power of zero-knowledge proofs, we’re solving the balance between privacy and transparency in the lending markets.🌐 🔒 Restore trust with real-time, verifiable financial… <a href="https://t.co/F8ZIhUugkL">pic.twitter.com/F8ZIhUugkL</a>&mdash; Accountable (@AccountableData) <a href="https://twitter.com/AccountableData/status/1874101889983234357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 31, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Accountable recently closed a $2.3 million seed round</figcaption></figure>



“The goal of Accountable one day is to become the new Celsius,” Pawlowski said. Without all of the fraud and bad actors, of course. Pawlowski hopes to grow his company to be a “digital finance platform” that could open up yield-bearing opportunities for users.



I’ll admit that, in my conversation with Pawlowski, I expressed skepticism about retail being willing to come back to lenders after being burned.



Pawlowski thinks that, like any other cycle, we’ll see the appetite return as transparency challenges are mitigated. They’re already working with firms like Galaxy and Amber Group.



He also noted that the human brain moves past financial losses after two or three years. If that’s true, perhaps now’s indeed the time to strike while the iron is hot.



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Accountable aims to be ‘the new Celsius’

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Toronto-based Cypherpunk Holdings <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sol-strategies-rebrand">rebranded as Sol Strategies</a> and announced it would be accumulating Solana three months ago. It’s gotten busy since then.&nbsp;



The holding company has acquired two separate validator operations, accumulated over 142,000 SOL worth roughly $27 million at current prices, hired Kraken’s former senior director of engineering to be its head of staking, and applied to be listed on the Nasdaq. Just this week, it signed a credit facility with its board chair to buy $17.3 million worth of SOL tokens and announced a private placement deal with ParaFi Capital worth roughly $19 million.



MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is fond of saying that “there is no second best” crypto behind bitcoin. If there is a second-best version of MicroStrategy’s corporate <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-btc-purchase-recap">crypto purchasing playbook</a>, it just might be the one Sol Strategies is running.&nbsp;



Like Saylor’s firm, Sol Strategies is focused on acquiring crypto as a treasury asset. The difference, CEO <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyWjoGcaeO0">Leah Wald</a> told me, is that Sol Strategies also runs a validator business and invests in Solana ecosystem projects, making its approach “more dynamic.”



Following Sol Strategies’ two validator acquisitions, it now is responsible for a combined 1.5 million staked SOL, which makes it roughly the 65th largest Solana validator. Wald declined to say which ecosystem projects Sol Strategies has taken positions in, if any.&nbsp;



Wald came to Cypherpunk Holdings in July 2024 after a four-year run at the helm of US-based crypto management firm Valkyrie, which had its ETF business <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinshares-buys-valkyrie-fund-business">acquired by CoinShares</a> in March. Wald had been a board member at Cypherpunk since October 2021.



Charged with taking over a company that had seen its stock trade sideways for years, Wald — who was among the first to file for and issue <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/valkyrie-plots-bitcoin-futures-etf">bitcoin futures ETFs</a> — saw a new opportunity. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-bull-run">Solana was hot</a>, but it lacked ETFs that investors could trade on traditional stock exchanges. So far, the SOL strategy appears to be working out.&nbsp;



Since debuting as Sol Strategies in September, the company’s stock price is up more than 1,700% — and that’s while a Nasdaq listing is still pending approval.



There’s probably a storm approaching Sol Strategies’ parade in the form of Solana ETFs. Currently, Sol Strategies is one of just a <a href="https://www.thenew.money/trend/solana-holders">few</a> publicly-traded companies giving investors <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">regulated exposure</a> to Solana’s price action by virtue of holding the asset in its treasury.&nbsp;



If Solana ETFs get approved, the market would gain competitors offering a similar service (although whether or not those ETF <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sol-etf-filing">issuers include staking rewards</a> will be key to watch). Sol Strategies will hope the market treats it like a bitcoin mining stock in that case.



But for now, Wald and Sol Strategies’ big bet is paying big dividends.



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