HotKeySwap

Byron Gilliam

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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“You have to enjoy failure.” — James Dyson
</blockquote>



In a 2003 research paper, Google engineers <a href="https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//archive/googlecluster-ieee.pdf">shared</a> their new approach of building “reliable computing infrastructure from clusters of unreliable commodity PCs.”



This was a radical change. Instead of paying up for super high-end Sun servers engineered for near-perfect reliability, Google was embracing cheap, commodity hardware running free Linux software. They then developed additional software to work around the hardware&#8217;s frequent failures.



Redundancy through volume, they found, is cheaper than precision through engineering.



This is the model for modern AI data centers, too: You can&#8217;t have a three-month training run crash just because one GPU dies out of 20,000.



It’s not, however, the model for manufacturing the GPUs themselves.



Instead, semiconductor fabrication plants are built to produce GPUs with an ultra-low level of defects, which demands near-perfection at every step of an incredibly complex process — the opposite of Google’s recommendation for data centers. But this is not engineering perfectionism. It’s an economic necessity.&nbsp;



“Why do we need to have 99.9999% reliability at every step of the process?” Ben Thompson <a href="https://sharptech.fm/member/episode/an-open-ai-reminder-netflixs-expanding-appetite-q-a-on-remote-work-taco-bell-and-data-centers-in-space">asks</a>. “It’s all the cost of capital equipment.”



Mostly that’s because the $200 million ASML machines every fabrication plant uses to make cutting-edge semiconductors “are the most overengineered things on earth,” Thompson explains.&nbsp;



This creates a feedback loop of spiraling cost and perfection: Fabrication plants have to be near-perfect to be profitable because the ASML machines are so expensive — and the ASML machines are so expensive because they have to be perfect.



As a result, it now costs as much as $20 billion to build a single semiconductor fab.



Thompson compares the process of making semiconductors with hyper-complex ASML machines with the process of making rockets at SpaceX, where Elon Musk chooses to “blow up a bunch of Starships because you don’t want to be wasting anything on complexity that actually isn’t necessary.”



Repeatedly blowing up rockets helps SpaceX find the “exact line where you want to be,” as Thompson puts it — the line between complexity and usefulness that allows them to avoid the astronomical upfront costs required by perfection.&nbsp;



In other words, failure can be a feature, not a bug, of complex systems.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">It’s about the journey…</h2>



Failure is a core feature of crypto systems, too: Every blockchain is designed around the assumption that some percentage of its nodes will be malicious or faulty.



This makes blockchains resilient — like Google&#8217;s data centers, they continue to produce valid blocks despite individual failures. But that fault tolerance doesn&#8217;t extend to the code running on the blockchain.



Smart contract code, written by fallible humans, will inevitably have bugs or design flaws. This can be costly, because unlike traditional finance, there&#8217;s no reversing a crypto transaction once a flawed contract or protocol is exploited.&nbsp;



Code eliminates intermediaries, but at the cost of zero fault tolerance.



This makes code-is-law crypto a system that philosophically embraces decentralized fault tolerance but architecturally demands perfection.



There is no way to design your way around that.



In traditional finance, where systems are permissioned and transactions are reversible, banks can aim for near-perfection by implementing ever-stricter KYC/AML rules and hiring ever more compliance officers.&nbsp;&nbsp;



In crypto finance, where systems are permissionless and transactions are irreversible, we can only aim to learn from our mistakes.&nbsp;



There have been a lot of them: from The DAO exploit that nearly sank Ethereum in 2016 to the record-setting $1.5 billion Bybit hack in 2025.



With luck, though, these could come to look in hindsight like Elon Musk’s exploding rockets. Each exploit reveals an attack vector — reentrancy, oracle manipulation, protocol design flaws — that can be fixed in future iterations.&nbsp;



Like Starship explosions, the failures show what actually needs hardening vs. what was unnecessary caution — each an opportunity to find the right balance of complexity and usefulness in a new kind of financial system.&nbsp;



Crypto is often judged by its failures, which is fair enough, given their frequency and size.&nbsp;



But the failures aren&#8217;t bugs in the process of building a new financial system. They are the process.



To enjoy crypto, then, you’ll have to enjoy failure, too.



Happy new year.



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Crypto

Failure is an option in crypto finance

Marc Arjoon

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Yield Basis (YB) is a novel DeFi mechanism that uses leverage to eliminate impermanent loss (IL) from AMMs. The founder of Yield Basis is the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/yield-basis-curve-dao-vote">same founder as Curve</a>, and synergies exist between the two. The mechanics of how this mechanism works can be found <a href="https://github.com/yield-basis/yb-paper/blob/master/leveraged-liquidity-paper.pdf">here</a>.&nbsp;



After years of witnessing failed attempts, YB strikes me as the first solution with legs, but you don’t need to take my word for it. YB already accounts for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/michael-egorov-yield-basis-protocol">three-largest BTC DEX pools</a> in DeFi ($400 million+).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1570" height="361" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110703" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1570 1570w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1570px) 100vw, 1570px" /></figure>



Moreover, this means that (wrapped) BTC token holders can now earn yield while supplying liquidity. Historically, the seven-day moving average for this (supply) yield has ranged between 4% and 40%.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1573" height="430" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110702" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1573 1573w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1573px) 100vw, 1573px" /></figure>



And since many of us don’t LP into AMMs (unless we’re farming something), you might have forgotten that yields are earned in the pool tokens. So yes, that means native BTC yields.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="992" height="585" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110704" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=992 992w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=443 443w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=371 371w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.valueverse.ai/tokens/yield-basis">Valueverse</a></figcaption></figure>







As for the token itself, it’s not just a <s>meme</s> governance token — there’s actual value. The <a href="https://x.com/yieldbasis/status/1995962614522765405">fee switch</a> was turned on earlier this month. YieldBasis LPs have two options for generating yield from provided liquidity: (a) hold the ybBTC LP token and receive BTC-denominated trading fees, or (b) stake ybBTC, forgo BTC-denominated trading fees and participate in YB emissions.&nbsp;



Corporate Finance 201 agrees with me when I say, &#8220;Don&#8217;t buy back the token, give me the earnings from the protocol, and I can decide for myself if and when I want to buy the token.” What I mean is, dividends give optionality, especially when you can choose which type of yield to receive. For perspective, for the week ending Dec. 25, roughly $450,000 was distributed (and this figure is despite caps on the LP pools).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="546" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110705" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.valueverse.ai/tokens/yield-basis">Valueverse</a></figcaption></figure>







If you’ve read this and think there’s finally a way to earn native yield on BTC without IL and without the risks, effort and costs of hedging, then you’d be right — but there could be more. YB is positioned as more than just an IL-free AMM: It is a yield and liquidity infrastructure designed to make otherwise non-productive assets yield-bearing while establishing secondary markets. By targeting wrapped native assets and tokenized RWAs, YB can theoretically make any sufficiently liquid and volatile asset productive, allowing issuers to earn from liquidity rather than subsidize market making, while also enabling holders to access yield and downstream DeFi use cases such as collateralization.



This model extends beyond crypto majors like BTC and ETH to tokenized commodities and equities such as Gold, Silver, and NVDA, whose onchain adoption is currently constrained by IL, shallow liquidity, and the absence of yield or liquidation pathways. Yield Basis could unlock these markets by offering a unique, superior yield option with an attractive risk-reward profile, deep liquidity and strong network effects.&nbsp;



YB is not without risk. I encourage you to read the paper (or get AI to explain it) and understand the potential downsides, but also the potential unlocks that YB has to offer.



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0xResearch

Yield Basis is making native BTC yield a reality

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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Corporations are legal entities that own themselves.”



— Lynn Stout
</blockquote>



The idea that companies should be run for the benefit of shareholders is a relatively new one.



For most of the 20th century, American corporations were instead operated according to the principle of <a href="https://sk.sagepub.com/ency/edvol/organization/chpt/managerial-capitalism">managerial capitalism</a>:&nbsp; “a form of capital accumulation and organizational control in which managers are the central agents of power.”



This was the era of the “Organization Man,” when control of a company was decoupled from ownership and professional administrators considered themselves stewards of a permanent institution, responsible for balancing the interests of a broad array of stakeholders rather than serving shareholders alone.



Often, the most favored stakeholders were the executives themselves.



In Barbarians at the Gate, the tendency for corporate self-dealing was vividly illustrated by the “RJR Air Force” — a fleet of private planes the CEO of R.J. Reynolds used for weekend golf outings and personal trips to his vacation home.



In one memorable instance, the only passenger on a corporate flight was the CEO’s German Shepherd (sent home early from a weekend trip to avoid the consequences of biting someone).



The excesses of managerial capitalism were also dramatized in the movie Wall Street, when Gordon Gekko tells the shareholders of Teldar Paper they’re being exploited by the company’s management: “You are all being royally screwed over by these bureaucrats, with their steak lunches, their hunting and fishing trips, their corporate jets, and golden parachutes.”



Gekko’s message to Teldar’s shareholders — that they owned the company and executives should therefore work for them — was rooted in the thinking of Milton Friedman, who argued in a 1970 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html">New York Times op-ed</a> that “in his capacity as a corporate executive, the manager is the agent of the individuals who own the corporation.”



“In a free‐enterprise, private‐property system,” Friedman added, “a corporate executive is an employee of the owners of the business. He has direct responsibility to his employers. That responsibility is to conduct the business in accordance with their desires.”



In the case of publicly traded companies, he reasoned, shareholders owned the business, so that’s who executives worked for.



Intuitive as that seems, Lynn Stout says it’s all wrong: “Corporations own themselves,” the legal scholar <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Shareholder-Value-Myth-Shareholders-Corporations/dp/1459638697/ref=sr_1_2?crid=3PKL416LYQRU9&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.2iwtqTFEmJThAUXTdx-4qO1pe-jvioCLao8k-mA_EH-2jZ6Z0BTzjr1FLkUBjTyPlnDPNw5oorX6LMp99D2fIhCjgjB5-8RmFUpn4f4PRxY2uvyJnDELAMAayPqzlN8aOluY54ak6XH-Tk2d8k92jY66hk5AMeP8_OJMVpFMYmY_X5_nfPJZPbpBXw0ZoBTu_5IHfFnWJNfkfeW21A-iX4kbjkt_pa78-yG_Q7Jn4XY.9uIwWS9D_JYqoQzssJQ2WG46NiVJ2WY7kSS-yW1TZPE&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=lynn+stout&amp;qid=1767033692&amp;sprefix=lynn+stout%2Caps%2C151&amp;sr=8-2">argues</a>, “just as human entities own themselves.”



What shareholders actually own, she explains, are, well, shares: “a type of contract between the shareholder and the legal entity that gives shareholders limited legal rights.”



Nowhere in that contract does it stipulate that executives work for shareholders. Or that they should favor investors over any other stakeholders, be it employees, customers, suppliers, society at large or the environment.



“The idea that corporations should be managed to maximize shareholder value,” Stout says, “is based on factually mistaken claims about the law.”



Nevertheless, that’s exactly how US corporations have been run, almost universally, for the past three or four decades (since Gordon Gekko, basically).&nbsp;



Stout laments the short-termism she believes that’s led to, arguing that a cult of “shareholder primacy” has caused corporations to aim for near-term profits at the expense of long-term investing.



(I’d counter, however, that the current boom in AI investment probably disproves that.)



Stout advocates instead for a return to the kind of managerial capitalism that, in her telling, successfully built infrastructure like railroads and canals with less regard for the profits they’d produce and more regard for how useful they’d be. “Investors in these early corporations were usually also customers,” she reasoned. “They structured their companies to make sure the business would provide good service at a reasonable price – not to maximize investment returns.”



Is that how crypto protocols should be structured, too?



The current debate in crypto is how to grant token holders the kind of rights that shareholders think they have in traditional finance.



But if Stout is right, that may be the wrong goal.



Without formal ownership rights, tokens might attract investors less like Gordon Gekko and more like the 19th-century shareholders who so eagerly funded societally beneficial railroads and canals.



Railroads and canals were networks, after all — networks that may never have been built if 19th-century companies were run strictly to maximize profits for their shareholders.



And protocols are networks, too.&nbsp;



Even if those protocols are often run like companies, Stout’s work shows that there’s more than one way to think about what kind of rights investors should have.



If crypto protocols are only about maximizing returns for investors, then, yes, token holders should be granted rights that more formally make them Gordon Gekko-like owners.



But if crypto finance is meant to be a new kind of participatory capital, it might be more productive to grant token holders fewer rights.&nbsp;



Or maybe even none at all.&nbsp;



Rather than offering the kind of legal protections likely to attract profit-maximizing investors, protocols could instead rely on their users to fund their development.&nbsp;



This might allow them to evolve into something fundamentally different from profit-maximizing corporations.



Conceivably, that could turn out to be the most useful guarantee for token holders, too: Investors that are also users may be treated better than investors that are only owners.



When the customer and the capitalist are one and the same, the only way to maximize value for both investors and users is to build something that actually works.



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Users are the best investors to have

Carlos

Sam Schubert

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The headline in crypto today is Lighter’s LIT token finally going live, marking a key moment in the ongoing battle for perps market share. In today’s coverage, we break down one of the most overlooked beneficiaries of perps growth (Pendle via Boros), and take a closer look at the evolving dynamics within the Solana liquid-staking landscape.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets kicked off the final week of the year on a softer note. Bitcoin (-0.81%) underperformed its US equity benchmarks, with the Nasdaq (-0.59%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.39%) posting modest pullbacks after tech stocks drove the S&amp;P 500 to all-time highs last week. Meanwhile, Gold (-4.04%) and other precious metals saw a sharp selloff amid profit-taking, after having been standout performers in the past few weeks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="877" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110655" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Back on the crypto front, Perps (+1.3%) was the only index to finish the day in the green, with HYPE leading gains ahead of <a href="https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2005892910051406087?s=20">Lighter’s TGE</a> today. Competition for perps market share has heated up in recent months. Lighter has shown that verifiable execution and zero retail fees can drive market-leading volume, leading perps trading with just over $200 billion in volume over the past 30 days, followed by Aster ($172 billion) and Hyperliquid ($161 billion). That said, Hyperliquid remains the only one of the three operating without active incentives and is the clear revenue leader, generating ~$47 million over the same period.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="866" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110656" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The real test will be whether Lighter can hold its volume lead after TGE, especially with many attributing its recent surge to points farming. In an announcement thread last night, the team outlined the token structure and airdrop details, noting that “the value created by all Lighter products and services will fully accrue to LIT holders” and that the labs entity will operate at cost. Token distribution is split between ecosystem (50% of total supply) and team/investors (remaining 50%), with 25% of total supply airdropped to points holders from Seasons 1 and 2.



As of writing, LIT is trading at a circulating market cap of $695 million and an FDV of $2.8 billion. Per DeFiLlama, the protocol has generated <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/fees/lighter">$8.76 million</a> in revenue over the past 30 days ($105 million annualized), implying LIT trades at a P/S of ~7x and an FDV/Sales of ~27x. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market update</h2>



While everyone is busy debating who will win the perps race (mostly Hyperliquid vs. Lighter chatter after Lighter’s TGE), the most interesting beneficiary might be hiding in plain sight: Pendle, via Boros. In my view, Pendle stands to gain from the structural growth and adoption of perpetual futures, regardless of who ultimately dominates, on either CEX or DEX rails.



Pendle launched Boros in early August 2025, bringing to DeFi a new onchain financial primitive: interest rate swaps. One can think of Boros as a perps exchange itself, but with two key twists. First, instead of betting on the price movements of assets, one is betting on the movements of yield. Second, while perpetuals (as the name suggests) have no expiry, Boros markets have a maturity date.&nbsp;



Although Boros has rolled out gradually, early traction has been strong. As shown in the chart below, daily open interest (OI) by maturity peaked at $245 million on Dec. 26, 2025, when eight markets with a combined $177 million in OI expired. The growth pattern in OI is highly cyclical, much like Pendle v2, reflecting the natural peaks and troughs around the maturities and redemptions inherent to yield markets.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110659" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding its underlying mechanics, Boros enables trading of funding rates by creating something called a Yield Unit (YU). For those familiar with Pendle v2 markets, YU is similar to the Yield Token (YT), and represents the future yield of an underlying asset until its maturity. Traders can either go long or short the YU.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Long position: If a trader is long 2 YU-BTCUSDC-Hyperliquid at 10% implied APR, they are committed to paying a 10% fixed rate, while receiving the underlying APR (funding rate payments) equivalent to a 2 BTC position in Hyperliquid BTCUSDC.</li>



<li>Short position: In a short position, the trader would commit to paying the floating underlying APR in return for a fixed APR, determined by the average implied APR at the time they entered the position (10% in this example).</li>
</ul>



On Boros, rates are settled periodically at the same time as the underlying exchange’s funding rate settlement. For example, funding rates on Binance are settled every eight hours, so rates on Boros for the Binance pools are also settled every eight hours. Similarly, Hyperliquid funding rates are settled hourly, and Boros rates for these pools follow the same hourly settlement schedule. At maturity (or when the position is closed), if the average Underlying APR &gt; average implied APR upon entry, a long position will profit and vice versa.&nbsp;



Beyond OI, which currently sits at ~$88 million, another key metric for Boros is notional trading volume. As shown in the chart below, Boros has processed roughly $6.8 billion in cumulative volume since launch, with a median monthly volume of around $1.5 billion over the past four months.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110658" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Boros has two main fee sources: (1) a flat fee on top of the implied APR for every swap, which varies by market, and (2) a flat fee of 0.2% of the fixed APR side of every YU during settlement. The chart below shows that Boros has generated ~$300,000 in cumulative revenue since inception, averaging ~$67,000 in monthly revenue over the past four months. Of note, liquidation fees remain insignificant, amounting to ~$1,300 since inception.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110661" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Swap fees correlate with notional trading volume. In a market with a swap fee tier of 0.05%, traders will profit if implied APR changes by more than 0.1% in their favor (assuming no yield settlement), as traders will have to open and close the position, thus incurring 2x the swap fee. On the other hand, OI fees (0.2% of the fixed APR during settlement) follow the cyclical growth patterns of Boros’ OI.



While the bull case for Boros is that it becomes DeFi’s default interest rate derivatives venue (extending beyond funding rates to stablecoin yields, money market rates, LST yields and more), its largest opportunity over the next six to twelve months is squarely in the perpetuals vertical. Boros launched with only BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT perps markets on Binance in August, but has since expanded to additional venues (Hyperliquid and OKX) and assets (HYPE). The chart below shows that OI was dominated by Binance early on, but is now almost evenly distributed across venues as of Dec. 29: Binance (37%), Hyperliquid (35%), and OKX (29%).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110657" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding asset dominance, the ETH-USD market remains the largest on Boros by OI, followed by BTC-USD and HYPE-USD.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110660" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



A key advantage of Boros is that it benefits from the maturation of perpetuals without being tied to any single venue, since it can support multiple exchanges and assets. As more sophisticated participants enter the perps space, they’re likely to demand strategies that Boros uniquely enables: hedging funding payments on a long position, hedging funding receivables on a short position, or implementing cash-and-carry trades. Looking ahead, as perps gain regulatory acceptance and more traditional firms trade RWA perps like equities and commodities, these players will want to trade YUs of TSLA, gold and hundreds of other assets on Boros.



Today, Boros represents less than 5% of Pendle v2 revenue, but it is well-positioned to be the most important growth vector for the protocol and may eventually rival or exceed v2 over time.



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0xResearch Newsletter

A sleeper in the perps category

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“It gives women a feeling of freedom and self-reliance. I stand and rejoice every time I see a woman ride by on a wheel.”



— Susan B. Anthony on bicycles
</blockquote>



The 1880s saw bicycle riders shift from sitting directly — and precariously — above the comically giant front wheel of a Victorian penny-farthing to the far safer position between the two normal-sized wheels of a modern bicycle.



The change was enabled by the innovation of chains that transferred pedal power to a bicycle’s rear wheel, leaving the front wheel just for steering. Further innovations like diamond-shaped frames, weldless steel tubes, and pneumatic tires soon completed the bicycle&#8217;s transformation from a dangerous novelty into the practical mode of transport and exercise we know today.



The safer, smoother and more comfortable ride was an immediate hit. Within a few years, bicycle manufacturing became a booming industry, with the number of manufacturers in Birmingham alone rising from 72 in 1889 to 177 by 1895.



This set off a mania among investors that the authors of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-History-Financial-Bubbles-ebook/dp/B08BKWLR4T/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1P0VUHI6SMQRS&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.zUx4NXn833SvErEgwhQUqYDSpsYEz604QHlW87HGBwiwBkcIul-x3T9oFG1mhSJZsQGe-dkiKcjp9X5A6Lit_VkeycbRHKBX7wmahBpA57lrST_NU0J2hl09grQMy4n7ZRv_HKyf_tK4lZCd1Egt0zjtIPYaUOd2kPG2x18HECC5bGrHGDbxiZREFTnY3Okbe8pucoweHem-lCIM16wajZNh7xvrts8c4DUb70lU5WI.Zy505g6Obv-QP9gZA-IMoe1F-EzUmhQg65lKV9ykTnE&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=boom+and+bust&amp;qid=1766872398&amp;sprefix=boom+and+bust%2Caps%2C134&amp;sr=8-1">Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles</a> describe as “a particularly clear illustration of the usefulness of bubbles.”



Manic investors drove an index of cycle shares 258% higher in the first five months of 1896, which attracted a boom of new stock market listings: In the two years to 1897, 670 cycle, tube or tyre firms floated shares on England’s regional stock markets.



Many of these were of the lowest quality, such as Accles Ltd., which sold £135,000 of shares but reported just £71 in revenue before filing for bankruptcy less than two years later.



Predictably, cycle shares lost <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/who-wins-and-loses-in-a-bubble-evidence-from-the-british-bicycle-mania/AFA0435425A3A550FE032EA6965D75EE">73% of their value</a> from the peak of Bicycle Mania in the early months of 1896 to the end of 1898.



As painful as it must have been for investors, the bust was probably worth it: The investment bubble accelerated improvements in tire quality that later enabled the automobile industry and spurred advances in machine tools and ball bearings that spread throughout English manufacturing and beyond.



Better yet, the flood of affordable bicycles the bubble produced had a modernizing effect on society that no one could have predicted.&nbsp;



The Victorian social expectation that women be chaperoned when traveling was shattered when bicycles became widely available — chaperoning a woman on a bicycle was impractical, and there were simply too many riders for Victorian men to police.&nbsp;



This also sparked a &#8220;rational clothing&#8221; movement, as the impossibility of cycling in restrictive corsets and skirts led to the development of more practical dresses.



It’s hard to overstate what a radical change that was.



“Let me tell you what I think of bicycling,” Susan B. Anthony told the New York World in 1896. “I think it has done more to emancipate women than anything else in the world.”



Such was the popular association between feminism and cycling that the bicycle became the symbol of the suffrage movement — women rode free from Victorian social norms on a booming supply of modern bicycles.



For that, we have the overenthusiastic investors of the 1890s to thank.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Invest like it’s 1999?</h2>



In 1999, Warren Buffett warned that world-changing technologies are often ruinous for the investors that correctly predict them.&nbsp;



The auto industry was one example: “If you had seen at the time of the first cars how this country would develop in connection with autos,” he <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Snowball-Warren-Buffett-Business-Life-ebook/dp/B009MYD9F8/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=189582036234&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Xb2VwsIiT8ool3LsPmJ7m8CyMsVm_pZCnVa4JSMUHanPbD03EojsPrfhbKDoM7hQsZaJU9AgW0oPJabzKOLzKVRvKSaQNA8XtS0-j-hjHcA6UW6-CDiFTO-Q3ZTqBD5eNtiISDdZwM-hD43pJ5XbMBPBORuDdRBIj1aPFKFd7y6bZjnjddQCm8zT6WluD5pOdk0ZnovqjoiYxEcLpvLM0zvRSqO--aKB--KLWrDpNZM._SpQBGIQJoYLdDN0pkFuAgexpPv_C8gEOEa71zHJM4A&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;hvadid=779665860385&amp;hvdev=c&amp;hvexpln=0&amp;hvlocphy=1021047&amp;hvnetw=g&amp;hvocijid=1495674898975822742--&amp;hvqmt=e&amp;hvrand=1495674898975822742&amp;hvtargid=kwd-301575015975&amp;hydadcr=22567_13821264_8257&amp;keywords=warren+buffett+the+snowball&amp;mcid=4c18b671fe2f3ba48fe9fd0678efcb91&amp;qid=1766963105&amp;sr=8-1">told</a> the annual gathering of VIPs at Sun Valley, ID, “you would have said, ‘This is the place I must be.’ But [out of] two thousand [auto] companies, as of a few years ago, only three survived…so autos had an enormous impact on America, but in the opposite direction for investors.”



Airlines were another: “Imagine if you could have seen the future of the airline industry back there at Kitty Hawk. You [would] have decided, this is the place to be.” But “as of a couple of years ago,” he noted, “there had been zero money made from the aggregate of all stock market investments in the airline industry in history.”



That was Buffett’s way of warning his VIP audience they could be right that the internet would change everything — and wrong that investors would profit from it.&nbsp;



The dotcom bubble popped eight months later.



Today, artificial intelligence is the obvious candidate for the next world-changing technology to ultimately disappoint investors: It probably will revolutionize everything; but which companies, if any, will capture the value it creates remains anyone&#8217;s guess.



Crypto is another.



The news this year was shockingly good — the SEC flipped from anti- to pro-crypto, the GENIUS Act legalized stablecoins, prediction markets went mainstream, TradFi institutions scrambled to get involved — but token prices have been shockingly bad.



That might just be because expectations got ahead of reality.



But it might also be a sign that, however much value crypto ultimately creates, little of it will accrue to the investors that funded it.&nbsp;



People are excited about the tokenization of real-world assets, for example. But if most of those assets are tokenized by Robinhood, BlackRock and the DTCC, the crypto investors who financed the infrastructure that made tokenization possible won’t capture much of the value it creates.&nbsp;



Similarly, the crypto industry has devoted billions of dollars to developing zero-knowledge proofs, and it’s easy to imagine how these could be great for the world — they may be humanity’s last line of defense against AI slop.&nbsp;



But they may also be terrible for investors: ZK proving is math that doesn&#8217;t need a tradeable token to function.



There are many more such examples — likely because the value that crypto set out to create was not meant to be captured.



Just the opposite: Composable, open-source, decentralized crypto was meant to disintermediate the rent seekers of technology and tear down the toll booths of finance.



At the end of a disappointing year for token prices, it&#8217;s tempting to conclude that crypto is progressing too slowly toward those goals.



But if crypto turns out to be as good for the world as bicycles, no one should complain if it&#8217;s also as bad for investors.



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</ul>

History

The old story of investing in new technology

Michael Ippolito

Jason Yanowitz

2025 was a line in the sand moment for crypto.



Decades from now, we will look back at these years as 2009 &#8211; 2024. Then 2025. Then everything after.



It’s worth taking a moment to reflect on exactly why that is and what it means for the next decade.



Until this point, crypto could fairly be categorized as “the Wild West” with all the good and bad that entails.



We’ve had a decade of unprecedented innovation in computer science, cryptography, and finance, leading to innovations like 24/7 markets, permissionless financial products, and zero-cost global dollar payments.



Concepts and products that crypto introduced are now changing the world.



But throughout that same decade, frauds, speculation, and a lack of regulatory clarity damaged the optics of crypto and put a ceiling on the industry’s growth.



That all changed in 2025 with the administration’s regulatory embrace of crypto. In a complete reversal, the SEC went from fighting crypto to announcing “Project Crypto” and pledging to bring the world’s financial infrastructure onchain.



We also got our first major piece of positive crypto legislation (GENIUS). Several crypto companies went public. Stablecoins went mainstream. Prediction markets are the fastest growing product outside of AI. Billion-dollar M&amp;A is finally happening. DEXs are eating market share from CEXs. RWAs grew 4x. The list goes on…&nbsp;



For the first time ever, banks, payments providers, startups, and enterprises have an incentive to build onchain.



Everyone loves to compare crypto to the internet, so here is our analogy: We believe we just experienced the equivalent of 2002 for the internet.



The age of speculative capital driving crypto is over, and the slow grind up where innovations truly scale has only just begun.&nbsp;



This has profound implications for investors, builders, and society as a whole.



From our perspective, here’s what it means for Blockworks.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">We’re making our next big bet.</h2>



The theme of the last decade can be described as “assets moving onchain.” $300B moved into stablecoins. $100B moved into DeFi. Another $50B flowed into perps and related markets.



Now, we’ve entered a new era.&nbsp;



We believe the theme of the next decade will be real businesses building onchain.



If you squint, you can see what it looks like. Startups like Hyperliquid, Pump, and Aave generate hundreds of millions of revenue with just dozens of employees. Fintechs like Robinhood, Stripe, and Klarna launched their own chains and stablecoins. Institutions like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, JPMorgan all transact on open, public blockchains.&nbsp;



The world is moving onchain. Slowly at first, then all at once.&nbsp;



In the next decade, we will go from $10 billion in onchain revenue today to more than $1 trillion.&nbsp;



Combined with AI, that shift onchain will create an explosion of opportunity and entirely new types of companies that have never existed before.



We’ve spent this past year positioning ourselves to win what we believe is the biggest opportunity we have ever seen since starting Blockworks.



The problem as we see it today: Even the most talented teams have to run multibillion-dollar protocols and onchain businesses on a patchwork of block explorers, internally built dashboards, and broken spreadsheets.&nbsp;



There is no single operating system and software platform for teams to run their business on.&nbsp;



Blockworks is going to solve that.&nbsp;



Our next phase is about turning the data platform we have built into a true operating system for onchain businesses.&nbsp;



We are building for a world where Blockworks is running the core data and workflows for millions of onchain businesses.&nbsp;



More on this in 2026!



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2025 by the numbers</h2>



Thanks to our team, 2025 was our strongest year in our history. A few highlights:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sales: We grew ARR by more than 10x this year. Data and analytics ARR is now growing faster than any other line of business.</li>



<li>Profitability: We remained profitable, with positive net operating income and more cash on our balance sheet than the start of the year.</li>



<li>Massively scaled our data platform: Our data warehouse now contains more than 2.1 trillion rows of data flowing through 100+ pipelines that ingest data from 82 distinct sources. This data powers nearly 2,600 visualizations and 280 dashboards for 145 different companies.</li>



<li>Shipped 4 major analytics products: We launched Analytics 2.0, with a custom data warehouse, frontend, and studio product, and used that backbone to ship a dashboard builder, chart builder, and the first version of our API (which already has 378 metrics available).</li>



<li>Expanded data beyond just onchain data: We added offchain datasets for ETFs, fundraising, M&amp;A, centralized exchanges, and more. This will be important as we add more offchain data for companies in 2026.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Token transparency framework: After presenting to the SEC and receiving their support, we introduced the Token Transparency Framework, an open disclosure standard for crypto projects. TTF is already being used to rate leading protocols and we’re now in active discussion with exchanges, financial institutions, and other data providers to integrate the framework across the industry.</li>



<li>Podcasts: Our podcast network is by far the most listened to network in crypto. Our creator-led shows now reach several million professionals and investors across finance, crypto, and tech.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Social: We’ve built a community of 800,000+ followers across our creators and brands.</li>



<li>Events: DAS New York was our best conference ever: It was the first time a sitting US president has addressed a crypto conference.</li>
</ol>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Day after day</h2>



When we started Blockworks in December 2017, the mission was simple: Build the best source of crypto insights and information for investors and professionals.&nbsp;



Since then, we’ve built a global team of nearly 100 people. Millions of people listen to our podcasts. Tens of thousands have attended our events. Hundreds of institutions read our research and consume our data.&nbsp;



If you zoom out, the story of Blockworks is not a string of funding rounds, product launches, or headline hires. We are a company that has survived multiple bear markets, stayed default alive, and quietly compounded into something much more ambitious than we ever believed possible.



As we head into 2026, we are more convinced than ever that crypto will improve the world by broadening access to assets, increasing transparency, and reducing financial friction. Blockworks will play an instrumental role in that world.



For those that want it, the crypto opportunity has truly never been bigger or more important to humanity.



See you in the trenches,



Jason and Mike



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</ul>

Blockworks

2025 Reflections

Boccaccio

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Happy Monday, and hope you all had a merry Christmas! We&#8217;re back with updates on recent crypto performance as we move into the New Year.



Gold led traditional benchmarks higher this week while BTC slipped nearly 1%, diverging from the broader risk-on mood. Solana ecosystem tokens outperformed, with JTO and DRIFT posting double-digit gains as L2s and Ethereum-linked sectors bled. Aave still dominates DeFi lending with 86% of protocol revenue, but its grip has loosened from 91% in January as Fluid and newer entrants chip away. Meanwhile, Lighter continues to beat out Hyperliquid on weekly volume, though the looming airdrop may be inflating those numbers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Benchmarks drifted up slowly over the past week: Gold led gains (+3.57%) while the S&amp;P 500 (+1.15%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.84%) also posted modest advances. BTC bucked the trend, slipping 0.90% despite the broader environment.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110624" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector indices showed mixed results over the week. On the upside, Solana Ecosystem (+4.4%) led gains, followed by Launchpads (+3.23%), DePIN (+2.23%), Perps (+2.17%), and Modular (+1.7%). DEXs (+1.42%) and AI (+1.07%) also posted modest advances. On the downside, L2s (-8.27%) and Lending (-6.82%) saw the steepest declines, with Ethereum Ecosystem (-6.57%) and Crypto Miners (-5.97%) also under pressure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="883" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110623" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



JTO led the Solana Eco index with a +10.30% move, followed closely by DRIFT (+8.10%) as liquid staking and perps narratives found renewed interest. JUP (+4.14%), ORCA (+3.81%), and RAY (+3.40%) also posted solid gains, reflecting strength across the DEX sector. On the lagging end, MPLX (-2.68%) struggled to find footing, and PUMP was the clear underperformer at -5.11%, continuing to bleed as memecoin-launchpad fatigue set in.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110625" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for the week</h2>



Aave has dominated the DeFi lending space in 2025, capturing 86% of protocol revenue and generating $120.9 million YTD. That said, Aave&#8217;s grip has loosened slightly over the year, dropping from 91% market share in January to 86% in December. New entrants HyperLend (launched March) and Jupiter Lend (launched July) now account for a combined 3.4% of the market, while Fluid more than doubled its share from 2.4% to 4.9%, making it the fastest growing competitor among established protocols.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/ae5768ea-1528-4ab0-a8d3-7b64084e6716" width="624" height="347"></h1>



Outstanding loans tell a similar story. Aave holds $21.3 billion in loans, representing 74.7% of the market, a share that has remained relatively flat since January. The real movement has been among challengers: Morpho grew from 10.6% to 12.8% of outstanding loans, while Spark collapsed from 11.5% to just 4.7%. Fluid nearly doubled its share from 3.6% to 5.0%, and newer entrants Jupiter Lend (2.1%) and HyperLend (0.7%) have carved out small but growing positions.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110622" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The downtrend in network revenues has continued, with total weekly revenue dropping 21% to $26.4 million, the lowest in at least a month. Hyperliquid saw the sharpest decline among major chains, falling 40% from $11.8 million to $7.1 million, while Ethereum dropped 38% to $2.2 million. Solana held up better, slipping just 2% to $4.7 million. Tron remained the top revenue generator after Hyperliquid at $6.1 million despite an 11% decline. The only notable gainers were smaller players: Arbitrum (+37%), Polygon (+50%), and BSC (+2%), though these moves represent relatively small absolute amounts.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110621" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In August 2025, Hyperliquid saw $396 billion in volume and $121 million in revenue, with trailing 30-day volume peaking at $395 billion and the protocol dominating 80%+ of DeFi perps market share.



Lighter has done $30.9 billion in perp volume over the past seven days and $203.7 billion over the past month, with $1.48 billion in open interest. Aster has seen $26 billion in seven-day volume and $160.6 billion over 30 days, with a larger $7.4 billion in OI. Hyperliquid has fallen behind on weekly volume at $21.5 billion, though it still holds more than double their combined OI at $2.4 billion. With a Lighter airdrop incoming, we&#8217;ll see how the landscape shapes up if volumes drop drastically once the points program ends.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110620" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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The perps wars are heating up

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It’s been a slow week with Christmas, and traditional markets were closed yesterday. BTC slipped slightly (-0.4%) on muted volumes across the board, reflecting the broader holiday lull. With price action quiet, it’s a good moment to step back, reflect on 2025, and think about 2026 positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="858" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110612" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Bitcoin has underperformed stock benchmarks this year, but its performance vs. gold and silver is even more striking. In hindsight, those two will likely be remembered as the standout assets of 2025, a surprising outcome if you’d predicted it at the start of the year. Gold is having its best year since 1979, up around 72% year to date and recently breaking out to new all-time highs above $4,500 an ounce. Silver has done even better, rallying nearly 160% year to date and about 45% in the past month alone, reaching a record ~$75 an ounce yesterday.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="852" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110613" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking ahead, 2026 could present compelling opportunities in liquid tokens. Many quality DeFi names are trading near multi-year lows, even as fundamentals and forward-looking growth remain strong. Crucially, value capture has flipped from infrastructure to applications: On Solana, for example, apps now generate roughly 3x the revenue of the network. The key question for investors is whether, and when, valuations will start to reflect this new reality.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1234" height="684" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110615" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1234 1234w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1234px) 100vw, 1234px" /></figure>



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Gold and silver won 2025

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Maple (SYRUP) is up 26% over the past week, outperforming all other money markets in our lending index. Alongside Sky, it is the only asset in the index with a positive year-to-date performance, and by a broad margin, up 112% vs. Sky’s 7%. What’s driving Maple’s strength, and how has it remained resilient despite challenging market conditions?



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="848" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110605" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Maple, as one of DeFi’s longest-standing lending protocols, was able to come back from the 2022 credit crisis by pivoting away from undercollateralized lending toward a fully secured, overcollateralized model, with an <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/maple-finance-institutional-lending">institutional approach</a>: Permissionless Syrup pools accept USDC or USDT deposits (syrupUSDC, syrupUSDT), while permissioned pools accept only USDC. Capital from these pools is then deployed OTC to institutional borrowers, collateralized by BTC or other highly liquid cryptoassets.



As seen below, Maple has surpassed $4 billion in deposits, with about 63% of deposits coming from the syrupUSDC pool, 27% from the syrupUSDT pool, and 10% from Maple Institutional (its permissioned secured lending pool).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110606" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



How does Maple stack up against other money markets? Among protocols with more than $3 billion in deposits, Maple has been the fastest-growing in every quarter this year except Q3, when it ranked second behind Fluid. Q2 marked Maple’s strongest quarter, with deposits up 225% and borrows rising more than 250%. Year-to-date, deposits have grown an exceptional 701%, while outstanding loans are up 1,118%. Notably, loan origination has outpaced growth in deposits, underscoring increasingly high utilization.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110603" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Maple’s growth has largely been driven by syrupUSDC, which as we mentioned accounts for 63% of Maple’s deposits ($2.66 billion) as of Dec. 21. One of the attractive selling points of syrupUSDC is the sustained high yield, linked to stable demand from Maple’s institutional client base. syrupUSDC has outperformed all other benchmark yields in the cohort year-to-date, with an average APY of ~8%. However, it’s worth noting that in recent months the yield has been declining, with Morpho’s USDC yield remaining competitive since August and outperforming sharply during November.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110607" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding the methodology, we use market-weighted USDC supply rates across competing protocols, based on base interest paid by borrowers (excluding any incentives). We then compute trailing 30-day annualized rates and compare them to the benchmark yield, syrupUSDC.



Another growth catalyst for syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT has been deep DeFi integrations. Maple’s yield-bearing stablecoins have been integrated into Pendle’s PT markets and onboarded as collateral across several money markets (Aave, Fluid, Jup Lend, Spark, and Kamino), enabling looping strategies against non-yield-bearing stables. This kind of distribution can further accelerate Maple’s growth, particularly during periods when syrupUSDC outperforms benchmark yields, including Ethena’s sUSDe.&nbsp;



Putting it all together, Maple has outpaced competing money markets year-to-date in both deposit and borrow growth, as well as USDC supply yields. How has that performance translated into revenue? The table below compares Maple against its peers on quarterly revenue and price-to-sales multiples.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110604" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Based on Q4 2025 revenue figures, Maple (SYRUP) is trading at the most attractive valuation of the cohort on a growth and FDV/Sales basis. Maple’s annualized revenue run rate has increased 533% YoY, from $1.0 million in Q4 2024 to a forecasted $6.6 million in Q4 2025.



Regarding token distribution, all initial team, advisor, seed investor, and public sale allocations were fully vested as of 2023, eliminating supply overhang concerns. Of note, SYRUP scored 37 on the <a href="https://blockworks.co/token-transparency">Token Transparency Framework</a>, indicating that the project has fully disclosed its revenue streams, equity to token holder rights, advisory service providers, and executive team personnel.



Given Maple’s fundamentals, alongside a favorable token structure (limited supply overhang and clear disclosures around value accrual), it’s unsurprising that SYRUP is the best-performing lending token year-to-date and has continued to show notable relative strength in recent days.



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Maple’s fundamentals are driving outperformance

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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“There’s a belief that the world’s GDP is somehow limited at $100 trillion. AI is going to cause that $100 trillion to become $500 trillion.”



— Jensen Huang
</blockquote>



In 1901, US Steel became the first $1 billion company — “an almost unthinkable sum,” a <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/48465/48465-h/48465-h.htm">history</a> of the company marveled just 20 years later.



“Hundreds of millions commanded respect,” it added. “But a billion, a thousand million — that seemed merely a row of figures, something that could hardly be computed.”



Today, the number investors must try to compute is a trillion: There are now 11 publicly traded companies worth more than $1 trillion.



For a sense of scale, consider that if you earned $1 every second of the day, every day (and never spent any of them), you wouldn’t be a trillionaire until the year 33,168.



Investors — unlikely to live that long — will have to hope their trillion-dollar companies earn dollars much faster than that.



More scientifically, Aswath Damodaran does a kind of <a href="https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html">reverse DCF</a> to calculate how much annual revenue the biggest companies will have to bring in to justify current valuations.



To invest in Tesla now, he calculates, you have to believe the company will earn annual revenue of at least $2.2 trillion by the year 2030 — an assumption that’s “pushing the limits of possibility,” he opines.



Nvidia shareholders are not quite as ambitious: They only need the company to do about $590 billion in annual revenue by 2030. “While that is a reach,” Damodaran advises, “it is both possible and plausible.”



Still, $590 billion is a gargantuan number.&nbsp;



For perspective, US Steel in 1901 was worth only about $46 billion in inflation-adjusted terms.



Now, OpenAI is <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/19/openai-is-reportedly-trying-to-raise-100b-at-an-830b-valuation/">reportedly</a> raising more than double that amount — $100 billion — in a single cash call to investors.&nbsp;



SpaceX was also <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/spacex-in-talks-for-share-sale-that-would-boost-valuation-to-800-billion-b2852191?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqc0ft8MJeWnjtxBg1oFY1aNtL70jARUO9PfJhI8oc_VBX6OuuNt9qkDSU4Q0Gc%3D&amp;gaa_ts=694594ec&amp;gaa_sig=mU066MOL6HDz33wVQgVQJ20Dz2HfHE4lFsz1Ds79g3awbjLo69KB2Qixz0-TZaO2-k5JJgbLeu2R5PdKQOQe7w%3D%3D">reported</a> this week to be raising money at an $800 billion valuation, with plans to IPO at $1.5 trillion.



Anthropic, a public benefit corporation that doesn’t aim to maximize profits, might IPO at $300 billion.



Incredible.



It was only 12 years ago that the term “unicorn” was <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/02/welcome-to-the-unicorn-club/">coined</a> to refer to the new phenomenon of startups valued at $1 billion.



Now we have “centicorns” — privately held startups worth 100x more than a unicorn.&nbsp;



Perhaps most incredible, however, is the AI startup — Thinking Machines — that raised $2 billion from investors in a <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/thinking-machines-lab-mira-murati-funding/">seed round</a> earlier this year.



Seed rounds the size of US Steel (admittedly unadjusted for inflation) is a measure of how dramatically financial markets have expanded over the past century.



Will these companies collectively earn the trillions of dollars of revenue required to justify these valuations?



Thought of in dollars per second, it’s hard to imagine.



But we probably need to think bigger than that, as the head of ChatGPT <a href="https://time.com/7339685/person-of-the-year-2025-ai-architects/">recently encouraged</a> us to do: “I think there is near-infinite demand for intelligence.”&nbsp;



If so, I guess there should be near-infinite demand for stocks, too.



Let’s check the charts.



Land of the unicorn:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="970" height="641" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110593" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=970 970w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=395 395w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=331 331w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-156.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px" /></figure>



The US has 712 unicorns, worth a collective $2.9 trillion, vs. just 157 for second-place China. 80 of those were <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/01/at-least-36-new-tech-unicorns-were-minted-in-2025-so-far/">founded in 2025</a> alone.



Big companies are good to have:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="863" height="735" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110597" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=863 863w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=302 302w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=306 306w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=257 257w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-160.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 863px) 100vw, 863px" /></figure>



An <a href="https://x.com/da_fant/status/1998090511807381613?s=20">unofficial tally</a> finds that, in 2024, the EU made more from fining US tech companies than it collected from all public European internet companies. A related stat (<a href="https://x.com/BullandBaird/status/2000953118344003657?s=20">attributed</a> to Goldman Sachs): In the past 50 years, just 14 companies with a market cap greater than $10 billion were founded in Europe vs. 241 in the US.



AI credit worries:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="932" height="516" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110589" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=932 932w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-152.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 932px) 100vw, 932px" /></figure>



Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/oracle-bonds-trade-like-junk-as-spreads-widen-debt-risk-flares">reports</a> that Oracle debt now trades at junk-bond levels.



Jobs are the new prices:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="913" height="676" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110587" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=913 913w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=347 347w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=296 296w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-150.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 913px) 100vw, 913px" /></figure>



Greg IP <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs-could-soon-replace-prices-as-focus-of-anxiety-3ca2416a">writes</a> that with US unemployment up and wage growth down, jobs will soon replace prices as the focus of our economic anxiety.



Where the jobs are being lost:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="910" height="578" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110592" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=910 910w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=405 405w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=411 411w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=345 345w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-155.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 910px) 100vw, 910px" /></figure>



Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-18/small-businesses-and-trump-tariffs">reports</a> that tariffs have hit small firms the hardest, causing them to shed jobs.&nbsp;



The good and bad news on tariffs:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="949" height="577" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110594" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=949 949w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=423 423w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=429 429w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=360 360w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-157.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 949px) 100vw, 949px" /></figure>



A <a href="https://x.com/GitaGopinath/status/2001665207136063755?s=20">new study</a> reports good news: Effective US tariff rates have so far been about half the headline number due to time lags, exceptions and enforcement gaps. The bad news, however, is that “nearly 100%” of tariffs are being passed through to consumers via higher prices.



Just getting started?



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="949" height="574" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110595" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=949 949w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=425 425w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=432 432w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=362 362w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-158.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 949px) 100vw, 949px" /></figure>



Joe Brusuelas <a href="https://x.com/dailychartbook/status/2002023363875582250?s=20">reports</a> that &#8220;The gap between US productivity and the hourly wage paid to non-supervisory employees continues to widen. If anything, the gap is accelerating as the American economy continues to be transformed by the global supply chain and technological advances.&#8221;



Read on:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1105" height="706" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110591" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=1105 1105w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=402 402w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=409 409w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=343 343w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-154.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1105px) 100vw, 1105px" /></figure>



The FT reported earlier this year on the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5dcf01d6-7a70-4990-9ae6-217d07c9d674">decline of reading</a>: The percentage of Americans reading for personal interest is down 10 percentage points since 2005, although the percentage reading to children remains steady. Do newsletters count as personal interest? If so, please consider reading this one to a child.



Fewer kids to read to:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="992" height="531" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110596" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=992 992w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-159.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px" /></figure>



Torsten Slok notes that the percentage of US families with children has been falling.



The YouTube generation:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1045" height="586" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110590" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=1045 1045w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-153.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1045px) 100vw, 1045px" /></figure>



Nearly 50% of US teens say they “hardly ever” read in their spare time, up from 20% in 1990. Seems worrying, but you really can learn a lot on YouTube.&nbsp;



Land of the rising yield:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1135" height="615" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110588" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=1135 1135w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-151.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1135px) 100vw, 1135px" /></figure>



The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds is about 2% for the first time since 1999. Higher yields typically mean Japanese savers will sell US investments to reinvest at home, but <a href="https://x.com/dailychartbook/status/2002038717267980517?s=20">the opposite seems to be happening</a>, likely because of the appeal of US AI stocks.



Prices by weight:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1214" height="894" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110598" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=1214 1214w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=349 349w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=354 354w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=297 297w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-161.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1214px) 100vw, 1214px" /></figure>



Measuring everything in price per pound, <a href="https://x.com/andrewmccalip/status/2000239273954705740?s=20">Andrew McCalip</a> finds that a Tesla Model 3 costs less than Camembert. “We pull sand, oil, and ore from the earth and transmute them into machines cheaper than aged milk.”



Perhaps that is the kind of thinking we need to make sense of trillion-dollar valuations.



Have a great weekend, trillionaire readers.



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The Breakdown Newsletter

The incredible, incomprehensible, possibly impossible world of trillion-dollar tech valuations

Shaunda Devens

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Today’s coverage takes stock of where capital actually went as we move through the end of the year. First, we start with index readings that show a continued rotation into large, proven crypto infrastructure while speculative sectors continue to unwind. Then we quantify the damage across 2025 token launches.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Bitcoin was essentially flat over the past week (+0.3%), underperforming traditional benchmarks — NASDAQ (+1.7%), Gold (+1.1%), and S&amp;P 500 (+0.9%). The divergence accelerated mid-week around Dec. 18, when most crypto sectors sold off sharply while equities held steady, suggesting a crypto-specific risk-off move rather than broader macro weakness.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="863" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110579" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



DEXs (+11%) led all indices, followed by Crypto Miners (+9.5%) and the 2025 Crypto Equity Cohort (+9.2%). DEX outperformance was driven by UNI up +15.4%, following the <a href="https://vote.uniswapfoundation.org/proposals/93">UNIfication vote</a> live onchain, with 69M UNI (40M quorum) voting yes. L1s (-2%) and Exchange Tokens (-2.2%) posted modest losses.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110578" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



AI was the worst-performing sector (-21%), driven largely by TAO (-21%). TAO weakness likely reflects a sell-the-news unwind around Bittensor’s first halving (around Dec. 14), which cut daily issuance in half but did not immediately translate into incremental demand, alongside broader de-risking across the AI token complex.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Negative returns on new tokens</h2>



With year-end approaching, it’s worth zooming out on 2025’s worst tape: new token launches. A recent <a href="https://x.com/ahboyash/status/2002363360327704834">post by Ahboyash</a> put hard numbers behind what many felt intuitively. Across 117 tokens launched in 2025, returns are overwhelmingly negative. The median token is down ~71% versus its listing fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) trade above launch valuation, while roughly 40% are down more than 80%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110581" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



The downside is both broad and severe: 100/117 tokens (85%) are underwater. Losses cluster most heavily in the 50–90% drawdown range, which represents the largest share of launches.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110580" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



At the extreme tail, 15 tokens have declined more than 90%, including high-profile launches such as Berachain (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110582" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



In aggregate, the cohort’s total FDV has compressed from $139 billion at listing to $54 billion today, implying roughly $87 billion (59%) of “paper” FDV destruction, excluding any projects that effectively went to zero.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="692" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110583" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The dispersion on the right tail is real, but concentrated. The worst performers skew toward infrastructure and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, the standout winners are largely later-stage, H2 launches with lower starting valuations, including Aster (+745%), Yooldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).



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The year new tokens died

Luke Leasure

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto and risk assets continue to show weakness heading into year-end, not adding to the holiday spirit. Risk assets are in search of a floor, driven by fundamental flows supported by ETFs or protocol buybacks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



This week closes out with continued weakness across the board, and in crypto risk in particular. Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 moved over a -1% lower this week, with gold being the one instrument showing strength. Concurrently, every crypto index we track has traded lower throughout the week. Notably, exchange tokens, buyback leaders, and the 2025 crypto equity cohort outperformed BTC intra-week, while everything else underperformed. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110565" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



The AI sector was the top loser on the week, trading down -26%. The downside was led by TAO, which notched new multi-month lows after being a top performer in October.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110566" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



Broadly, crypto continues its downtrend, with majors like BTC, ETH and SOL showing weakness while longer tail alts make larger moves to the downside. Risk is in search of a fundamental floor, which still may remain lower until price/buybacks becomes too compelling, and buyback flows from these protocol cashflows can set a low. Similarly, majors may need an uptick in ETF inflows to set their low, while the support provided by these vehicles has been anemic in the weeks past.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Weekend Reading</h2>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Taking a Step Back to Step Forward</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1506" height="1102" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110570" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1506 1506w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=351 351w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=357 357w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=299 299w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1506px) 100vw, 1506px" /></figure>



Michael W. Green published a blog post titled “Taking a Step Back to Step Forward” that reframes US economic precarity through a structural and mathematical lens. Drawing on Ole Peters’ “Equation of Life,” Green argues that wealth naturally concentrates without redistribution (τ &lt; 0), leading to systemic inequality. He critiques distorted CPI measures, technocratic complacency, and housing scarcity as mechanisms of economic extraction. With credit spreads artificially tight despite rising defaults, he warns of financial fragility. Green calls for civic engagement and institutional accountability, setting the stage for further essays and political interviews focused on systemic reform. <a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Annual State of Sky Ecosystem</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="690" height="387" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110568" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=690 690w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px" /></figure>



Sky Frontier Foundation published a research report titled “Annual State of Sky Ecosystem” outlining the protocol’s major achievements and financial growth in 2025. The Sky Ecosystem saw an 86% increase in USDS supply (to $9.86B), outpacing the broader stablecoin market. Sky Protocol generated $435M in revenue and $168M in profits, with substantial SKY token buybacks and staking rewards. With new regulatory clarity via the GENIUS Act and multiple Sky Agent launches, the report projects strong institutional adoption and protocol expansion in 2026, positioning Sky as a leader in decentralized, yield-bearing stablecoins. <a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/malekanoms/status/2001303930379128954">Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110567" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



Omid Malekan published a blog post titled “Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization” that critiques traditional financial institutions (DTCC, Visa, SWIFT, Stripe, PayPal) for selectively embracing blockchain benefits while ignoring its existential threats to their legacy business models. Malekan argues these firms tout tokenization, but avoid decentralization, risking co-opting crypto’s core values. He warns that permissioned chains and regulatory lobbying may dilute crypto’s foundational principles. While he advocates engagement with TradFi, he urges the crypto community to defend public, permissionless networks and resist compromising decentralization for mainstream adoption. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110569" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



@DeFi_Cheetah on X published an article post titled “It’s Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’” arguing that the real barrier to non-USD stablecoin adoption is not demand, but structural limitations in the global banking system. The piece dissects how Basel III regulations, liquidity constraints, and G-SIB penalties discourage banks from holding non-USD inventories or servicing emerging market corridors. The result is a liquidity vacuum in non-USD FX markets. The author calls for DeFi-native solutions to bootstrap non-USD stable liquidity, warning that relying on traditional FX infrastructure will fail by design. <a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Read more</a>



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Grinch rally: Crypto indices track lower through the week

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“I don&#8217;t get it. I still don&#8217;t get it.” — Tom Hanks, Big
</blockquote>



At a holiday dinner last night, I was asked to explain crypto to someone who is so new to the topic they had not previously heard of Ethereum.&nbsp;



I did a terrible job.



From attempting explanations of proof-of-stake, to smart contracts, to DeFi, to DePIN and then back to what a blockchain even is, I’m certain I left my audience far more confused than I found them.



It was a reminder that the best person to learn from is often just one step ahead of you on the subject, not 10 or a 100 — or someone that thinks about a subject twice a year, not every day.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://pca.st/episode/babbbc92-4305-4a04-9039-26eb33d09dfd">Ben Thompson makes the tech case for crypto</a></h2>



For example, the tech expert Ben Thompson, who mentions crypto in his Stratechery newsletter about twice a year, explains why it matters better than any of the crypto experts who think about it daily.



Thompson helpfully starts at the beginning: “Blockchains are the idea that disparate groups can come to a consensus without any kind of centralized authority.”&nbsp;



That decentralization endows crypto with “all the qualities” of digital goods — endlessly duplicable, universally accessible, easily distributed — and yet, “it has scarcity.”



Thompson thinks this is conceptually interesting because it solves a problem he encounters as a writer of digital newsletters: “Digital goods are fundamentally hard to monetize because they are infinitely duplicable.”



In practice, however, he recognizes that crypto is mostly interesting as a way to send money peer-to-peer — which is why the case he makes for crypto is mostly about stablecoins.



Stablecoins, he says, represent “all internet sort of things” that he finds interesting — a universal ledger, scarcity, fast transactions — and none of the “downside” things: “the pure speculation on a coin going up, the wild swings in value.”



Net-net, “what you end up with [with stablecoins] is basically this currency that operates like the internet.”



That’s the definition I needed at dinner last night: Crypto is a currency that acts like the internet.&nbsp;



Thompson also explains why this is useful for the kind of fintech businesses he often writes about: “If you want to set up some kind of financial entity, you don’t have to build out the backend to track everyone’s finances…you can just build it directly on top of the blockchain.”



This allows fintechs to “offload” all the difficult parts of finance to a blockchain: holding money, reconciling accounts, keeping a ledger of transactions, and — perhaps most importantly — establishing trust.



“You get all that for free with blockchains.”



My neighbor at dinner — a real estate guy — would surely have seen the appeal in that.&nbsp;



Thompson’s explainer, offered way back in 2024, feels even more relevant at the end of 2025: Token prices are down bad, but traditional finance companies — like Stripe, BlackRock and Visa — are increasingly excited about offloading parts of their business to blockchains.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Thompson’s podcast will help you explain why.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://medium.com/free-code-camp/explain-bitcoin-like-im-five-73b4257ac833">The best Bitcoin explainer</a></h2>



A Medium post from 2013 offers the most accessible introduction I’ve seen to what Bitcoin is and why it matters — and your best chance to explain it to beginners over the holidays.



The author begins on a park bench, using a simple apple exchange to illustrate the core purpose of blockchains: making digital apples behave like physical ones.



These blockchains, he says, “live in everybody’s computers [where] all the transactions that have ever happened, from all time, in digital apples will be recorded in it.”



As a result, sending one of those apples is “as good as seeing a physical apple leave my hand and drop into your pocket.”&nbsp;



It’s also as permissionless as exchanging real apples: “Just like on the park bench, the exchange involved two people only. You and me — we didn’t need Uncle Tommy there to make it valid.”



Uncle Tommy is a stand-in for banks, of course.



This setup makes for a deft explanation of proof-of-work: “You could participate in this network too and update the ledger and make sure it all checks out. For the trouble, you could get like 25 digital apples as a reward.”&nbsp;



It explains the idea of scarcity, too: “In fact, that’s the only way to create more digital apples in the system.”



With all that established, Bitcoin becomes far more understandable: “That system I explained exists. It’s called the Bitcoin protocol. And those digital apples are the ‘bitcoins’ within the system.”



This makes crypto money near-infinitely divisible and near-instantly sendable. To anywhere, no permission required.&nbsp;



But that’s not all that blockchains can do: “I can even make other digital things ride on top of these digital apples! It’s digital after all. Maybe I can attach some text on it — a digital note. Or maybe I can attach more important things; like say a contract, or a stock certificate, or an ID card…”



Perhaps disappointingly, crypto is only now — 12 years later — starting to put stock certificates and ID cards on blockchains.&nbsp;



But now that it’s finally happening, you should be ready to explain how and why it is.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ERuhks3GNk">Adopt a beginner’s mindset</a></h2>



In the classic movie <a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/lgTf-pYUfzk?si=tH2vVhQdaitNeHbO">Big</a>, Josh (Tom Hanks) is promoted from data entry to vice president of product development just two weeks into the job — all because the CEO is captivated by his childlike wonder for the toys they make.



Josh jumps straight to the top because he has the unfair advantage of being a kid trapped in a man’s body — this gives him insight into the company’s toys that no toy expert can match.



In a high-stakes product meeting with adults, he responds to a pitch for a toy building that transforms into a robot as any kid would: “I don’t get it.”&nbsp;



After the marketing data is explained to him, he shrugs, “I still don’t get it.”



His childlike line of questioning and reasoning then leads to a much better proposal: a robot that transforms into a prehistoric bug.



Josh’s method is not new.&nbsp;



The Zen concept of shoshin — adopting an attitude of openness, eagerness and lack of preconceptions when learning — dates back to the 13th century.



“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities,” a Zen master wrote. “In the expert’s mind there are few.”



This might still be the best way to learn a topic as complex and often bewildering as crypto: Approach it with the open mind of a beginner.



Fortunately, you don’t have to spend decades becoming a Zen master to practice shoshin (or be a 12-year-old boy) — you only have to channel Tom Hanks.



The next time someone explains a complex crypto concept to you (like auto-deleveraging or quantum resistance, to cite recent examples), don’t think you have to immediately understand.



Instead, say, “I don’t get it.” Then, after a second explanation: “I still don’t get it.”



By the third or fourth response, you probably will get it — maybe even well enough to explain it to me.



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A holiday guide to explaining crypto to your relatives

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This Wednesday, BTC outpaced stocks as launchpads rose. More importantly, this week’s update highlights a clear structural shift in how crypto markets are being distributed. 



We also take a look at M&amp;A and fundraising over the past year, and note the drastic growth of mergers and acquisitions activity in crypto. Together, these trends point to a market where infrastructure, not listings, is becoming the primary driver of scale and access.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned modestly risk-on over the last session, with crypto and growth assets leading while defensives lagged. BTC outperformed on the day (+1.6%), while the Nasdaq 100 (+0.1%) and Gold (+0.1%) were effectively flat, and the S&amp;P 500 slipped modestly (-0.4%), reinforcing the view that incremental risk appetite was concentrated squarely in crypto rather than across broader macro assets. Intraday volatility was noticeable across all lines, but dips were consistently bought, particularly during the US trading window.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110507" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Within crypto, today’s tape was defined by aggressive rotation into trading themes. Launchpads (+3.9%) led the complex by a wide margin, followed by the Solana ecosystem (+2.3%) and DEXs (+2.1%). Crypto Miners (+1.9%), tokens with Buybacks (+1.9%), Exchange tokens (+1.9%) and plays like RWA (+1.9%) also finished green. On the other side, several categories saw sharp givebacks. Gaming (-6.4%) was the clear laggard, with Lending (-3.7%), Revenue Leaders (-3.5%), Ethereum ecosystem (-3.5%), and Memes (-3.4%) all posting steep declines.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110508" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Within Revenue Leaders, HYPE (-3.0%) continues to underperform as concerns around sustainability, take fees and competition arise. Meanwhile, AAVE (-3.8%) was the worst performing asset in the index as concerns around Aave Labs and DAO alignment continue. This is despite Aave founder Stani Kulechov <a href="https://x.com/StaniKulechov/status/2000712591144804534?s=20">swapping</a> almost $10 million of wrapped ETH into AAVE to signal “alignment” with the token.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110509" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Overall, the market action suggests tactical rotations rather than a broad risk-off shift. Volatility remains elevated and flows appear selective. Sustained follow-through will likely depend on BTC’s ability to hold recent gains and reassert leadership.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Jupiter has integrated with Coinbase’s onchain trading stack to power swaps for Solana-based assets, bringing one of Solana’s most important liquidity layers directly into a mainstream crypto interface. The integration allows users to trade Solana tokens via Coinbase’s onchain experience, while Jupiter handles routing and execution across Solana DeFi in the background.



On average, Jupiter generates around $4 million in monthly revenue from its aggregator (ultra) offering and this integration paves the way to monetize this further.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110534" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



So what’s actually happening? Well, rather than listing new Solana assets directly on a centralized order book, Coinbase is leaning into onchain rails. Jupiter acts as the execution engine, aggregating liquidity across Solana DEXs, optimizing routes, and settling trades onchain, while Coinbase provides the distribution, UX, and on- and off-ramps. For users, this means access to a much broader universe of Solana tokens than would typically be available through centralized listings, without needing to leave the Coinbase ecosystem.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1286" height="701" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110512" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1286 1286w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1286px) 100vw, 1286px" /></figure>



<a href="https://x.com/solana/status/1999035191323759024"></a>



Coinbase is one of the leading exchanges in the world, with a large user base with roughly $80-$100 billion in average monthly trading spot volume.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1001" height="680" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110513" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=1001 1001w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=378 378w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=384 384w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=322 322w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px" /></figure>



<a href="https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot"></a>Similarly, Jupiter already sits at the center of Solana spot trading activity, with roughly $50 billion in monthly trading spot volume.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110531" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Together, they significantly expand how Solana-native assets reach retail users. Notably, Coinbase isn’t competing with Solana DeFi primitives here, it’s embedding them. This reflects a broader shift where centralized platforms increasingly act as frontends to onchain liquidity. The logic behind this is that onchain trading removes the long lead times associated with centralized exchange listings, allowing markets to form where liquidity already exists. Amid a market downturn, this integration may act as a rerating catalyst for both COIN and JUP by expanding trading volume and revenue potential.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110529" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



However, permissionless markets cut both ways. Access to more tokens also means exposure to illiquid or malicious assets, so verification, liquidity checks and trade sizing remain essential. The Jupiter-Coinbase integration is less about a single partnership and more about a structural shift, where major exchanges increasingly rely on DeFi infrastructure to deliver broader market access and Solana’s trading stack becomes harder to ignore.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fundraising and M&amp;A update</h2>



Crypto M&amp;A activity has experienced drastic growth over the past several quarters. M&amp;A volume in November 2025 alone reached approximately $10.7 billion, driven largely by Naver&#8217;s acquisition of Dunamu (operator of the Upbit exchange) for $10.3 billion.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110517" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This follows a strong Q3 2025 where crypto M&amp;A topped $10 billion for the first time, doubling the previous record of $5 billion and representing a 30x jump compared to the same period in 2024. By November 2025, total M&amp;A deal value reached $8.6 billion across 133 deals (excluding the Dunamu mega-deal), exceeding the combined total of the previous four years. M&amp;A has grown from $457,000 in Q1 2021 to $4.2 billion in Q2 2025, which represents a roughly 9000x increase.&nbsp;



The surge has been led by major exchanges executing aggressive expansion strategies. Coinbase completed six acquisitions in 2025, including the $2.9 billion purchase of Deribit, the current leading crypto options platform. Ripple acquired four companies, including the $1.25 billion purchase of prime brokerage Hidden Road, while Kraken completed five acquisitions, including NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion and Small Exchange for $100 million. Recent deals show continued momentum into December, with Paribu acquiring CoinMENA for $240 million, Stripe acquiring wallet provider Valora, Kraken purchasing tokenization firm Backed, and Galaxy acquiring liquid staking protocol Alluvial.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110518" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto fundraising has grown approximately 41%: from the previous cycle peak of $4.63 billion in January 2021 to the new high of $6.52 billion in July 2025.&nbsp;



Fundraising activity has been robust throughout 2025, though with more variation month to month. Fundraising peaked in July 2025 at $6.5 billion before decreasing to around $4-5 billion monthly through Q3 and Q4. Notable recent raises include Kraken securing $800 million across two rounds in November (including $200 million from Citadel Securities at a $20 billion valuation), Kalshi raising $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation for its prediction markets platform, Monad completing a $188 million public sale at a $2.5 billion valuation, and RedotPay closing a $107 million Series B for its crypto payments infrastructure. Year-to-date fundraising through November 2025 totaled approximately $36 billion, a significant recovery from the crypto winter years of 2023-2024 when monthly fundraising often struggled to exceed $1 billion.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110519" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Coinbase embeds Solana trading

Kunal Doshi

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We start with a risk-off tape across tech, crypto and miners, then zoom in on Robinhood’s prediction market roadmap.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets closed with a clear risk-off tone yesterday. Gold was the lone bright spot, finishing up 0.8%, while the S&amp;P 500 ended flat and the Nasdaq and BTC fell -1.38% and -1.89%, respectively.&nbsp;



The underlying drivers remain unchanged, with continued rotation out of the AI trade weighing on tech-heavy indices. This time, sentiment was rattled by reports that a key Oracle investor pulled out of a data center project. Although Oracle later disputed the claim, the headline was enough to push already cautious investors further into defensive positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="851" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110546" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



That weakness spilled into crypto, with every sector finishing in the red. One surprising holdout was the meme index, which declined just -1.2% despite typically being one of the most sentiment-sensitive sectors. The index found support from M (MemeCore), which was the only constituent to close green and gained 1.96% on the day.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="849" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110547" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The hardest-hit sectors were Crypto Miners and AI, both down close to -9%. Miners continue to feel pressure from fears that the AI trade is rolling over, with IREN now down -31% over the past month. In the AI index, TAO was the weakest performer, falling -9% despite its recent halving.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1219" height="558" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110545" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1219 1219w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1219px) 100vw, 1219px" /></figure>



Some hopium for the readers: Despite the negative market sentiment, BTC ETFs have flipped positive once again and notched $346.1 million worth of inflows yesterday. Let’s hope this trend can continue for at least a few consecutive days to end the year off on a slightly positive note.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



It feels like every other week brings a major development in prediction markets. This week it was Robinhood, which unveiled new prediction-market features at its keynote event. The growing focus makes sense. Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-markets-business-booms-where-135300625.html">fastest growing product by revenue</a>, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million users.



Sports continue to be the clear driver. They now account for about <a href="https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets">35%</a> of volumes on Polymarket and close to <a href="https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets">90%</a> on Kalshi. If we annualize sports volumes from the past four weeks across both platforms, that comes out to roughly $74.5 billion. For context, FanDuel saw about <a href="https://www.deucescracked.com/us-sports-betting-revenue-soars-to-14b-record-in-q4-2024/">$50.7 billion</a> wagered in 2024 and DraftKings around <a href="https://www.deucescracked.com/us-sports-betting-revenue-soars-to-14b-record-in-q4-2024/">$49.4 billion</a>. Prediction markets are no longer a niche product — they are directly competing with established Web2 incumbents.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="779" height="474" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110544" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=779 779w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=422 422w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=429 429w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=360 360w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 779px) 100vw, 779px" /></figure>



The final missing piece has been parlays. Parlays make up roughly <a href="https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-nfl-parlays-volume-1234873711/#:~:text=around%2030%25%20of%20handle%20in%20Maryland%2C%20Illinois%20and%20New%20Jersey%20this%20year">30%</a> of sports-betting volumes and nearly <a href="https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-nfl-parlays-volume-1234873711/#:~:text=around%2030%25%20of%20handle%20in%20Maryland%2C%20Illinois%20and%20New%20Jersey%20this%20year">60%</a> of industry revenues. They bundle multiple wagers into a single bet, offering much higher payouts but with far lower odds of winning. This is precisely why they are so lucrative for platforms.



Robinhood is now moving aggressively into this territory. It <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-presents-yes-no-event/">announced</a> that users will soon be able to trade combinations of outcomes, totals and spreads for individual NFL games. Looking ahead to early 2026, users will be able to create custom combinations of up to 10 outcomes for NFL games. Robinhood will also <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-presents-yes-no-event/">allow</a> trading on individual player performance. This is a meaningful leap from the basic win/lose markets currently offered and opens the door to far more speculation and volume. Robinhood <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/robinhood-is-rolling-out-nfl-parlay-and-prop-bets-on-prediction-markets-platform.html">plans</a> to extend these features beyond football and eventually beyond sports altogether.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="814" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110548" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The remaining question is how Robinhood chooses to build. Will these products be developed in partnership with Kalshi or brought fully in-house? This question became more relevant after Robinhood’s <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-prediction-markets-joint-venture/">recent</a> plans to build proprietary prediction market infrastructure through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Coinbase also entered the picture this week by <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/12/17/coinbase-announces-stock-trading-and-new-kalshi-based-prediction-markets/">announcing</a> a partnership with Kalshi to roll out prediction markets to its users. The arms race is clearly underway.



Sports markets have found clear product-market fit this year. With distribution at scale and increasingly sophisticated products, Robinhood’s latest moves could give it a meaningful edge. If there were a market today for the prediction market leader by volume in 2026, my bet would be on Robinhood.



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Robinhood’s leap shows the prediction-market arms race is underway

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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“A great challenge of life: Knowing enough to think you are right, but not knowing enough to know you are wrong.”&nbsp;



— Neil deGrass Tyson
</blockquote>



“Ideas are so fragile,” Sir James Dyson reflected in a <a href="https://pca.st/episode/d300cd05-42e6-4aab-aa3e-01bd51c8071f?t=3075">recent interview</a>.



He would know, given the extraordinary determination it took to protect the very fragile idea he spent a lifetime pursuing: a bagless vacuum cleaner.&nbsp;



Dyson originally found it so difficult to raise money for his idea that he still owns 100% of Dyson Limited, his maker of “cyclonic” vacuum cleaners (which really are so, so much better than the ones with bags).



Because such ideas are “so easily knocked away” by people who know how unlikely they are to succeed, Dyson warns prospective inventors and entrepreneurs that “experts are dangerous.”



Experience, he argues, doesn’t just add knowledge — it adds reasons to 1) not try things and 2) stop trying hard things.



This is why he hires students as young as 17 to work at Dyson.&nbsp;



“If you’re experienced, you know why not to do something or how not to do something,” he explains. “Whereas if you’re naive and you’re a young engineer&#8230;you don’t have that negativity.”



Having endured such expert negativity himself, Dyson now values the naivety he needed to ignore it.



“I love naivety,” he says, “because it creates a different way of doing things, and we’ve got to find different ways of doing things all the time.”



Similarly, Henry Ford was universally told that his different way of doing things wasn’t worth pursuing: An internal combustion engine could never compete with steam engines.



Ford persisted, of course, and steam engines were soon on the road to extinction.



“That is the way with wise people,” he wrote in his <a href="https://www.amazon.com/My-Life-Work-Autobiography-Henry/dp/149428300X">autobiography</a>. “They are so wise and practical they always know to a dot just why something can’t be done. They always know the limitations.”



Like Dyson, Ford therefore preferred employees with “a state of mind in which nothing is impossible.”



“The moment one gets into the &#8216;expert&#8217; state of mind,” he <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/306037-none-of-our-men-are-experts-we-have-most-unfortunately">warned</a>, “a great number of things become impossible.”



Most of the time, those things really are impossible.&nbsp;



But the opportunity cost of not pursuing the impossible is high: Dyson is now a $20 billion company and the Ford Motor Company is still making four million cars a year.



Such unlikely success stories are evidence that, in business, naivety and ignorance can be competitive advantages.



“If I ever wanted to kill opposition by unfair means, I would endow the opposition with experts,” Ford quipped. “They would have so much good advice that I would be sure they would do very little work.”



Startup investor Paul Graham makes a similar argument, valuing youthful naivety over expert experience.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“One reason the young sometimes succeed where the old fail,” he <a href="https://paulgraham.com/determination.html">says</a>, “is that they don&#8217;t realize how incompetent they are.”&nbsp;



This lack of insight allows youthful entrepreneurs to profit from a form of deficit spending — borrowing confidence from assumed future success: “When they first start working on something, they overrate their achievements,” Graham explains. “But that gives them confidence to keep working, and their performance improves.”



Dyson, for example, so overrated his ability as an engineer he believed it would take him just one year to build a commercially viable cyclonic vacuum cleaner.&nbsp;



It took him 14.



Had he foreseen that, it’s unlikely he ever would have gotten started — so it’s good that he naively didn’t.



“Someone clearer-eyed,” Graham adds, “would see their initial incompetence for what it was, and perhaps be discouraged from continuing.&#8221;



Dyson never got discouraged.&nbsp;



&#8220;I&#8217;d get up excited every morning,&#8221; he later recounted of his time spent building 5,127 non-working prototypes. &#8220;Even though I knew it probably wouldn&#8217;t work, there was always that chance it might.&#8221;&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Never change, crypto</h2>



Crypto ideas are often easily — and often rightly — dismissed: Luna, memecoins, NFTs.



But I admire the industry’s enthusiasm, against all expert advice, in repeatedly pursuing them.&nbsp;



Because the enthusiasm, however naive, does occasionally pay off: Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins.



Sometimes it’s an old idea that crypto reinvigorates with seemingly no knowledge of past failures, as with prediction markets.



Sometimes it’s an idea that people naively refuse to give up on — like Zcash.



On the whole, it’s been a disappointing year for crypto, but the recent success of things like prediction markets and Zcash is evidence that the industry’s youth, inexperience, disregard of experts and unrealistic persistence are all competitive advantages.



Crypto in 2025 is not as youthful as it was when, say, Jai Bhavnani co-founded Rari Capital at the age of 18 in 2020.



And the industry is getting ever more populated with experts coming over from traditional finance.&nbsp;



So it might be losing some of the naive edge that Dyson, Ford, and Graham so value.&nbsp;



But maybe there’s a happy medium to be found?



Dyson was encouraged when people kept telling him his idea for a new kind of vacuum cleaner would never work: “The more it was turned down, the more I realized I had something,” he said, “because they never really gave a good reason.”



In 2026, crypto will continue to be told by many experts it won’t work — often for good reasons.



Its success might be a function of which ones it judiciously ignores.



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