New Baby Elephant Houston Zoo

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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The team behind the memecoin launchpad pump.fun began restricting UK users this morning.



The move came days after the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority tagged pump.fun as unauthorized. Most firms need the regulator’s approval to do finance-related business in the country. It&#8217;s apparently the platform&#8217;s first public restriction, despite facing past criticism for its fast-and-loose approach to moderation.



Notably, pump.fun — which allows users to launch Solana-based tokens for around $2 — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pumpdotfun-suspends-livestream-feature">took down</a> its livestreaming feature last week after a number of violent and disturbing streams went viral.



The site’s UK block doesn’t represent a ban per se, Shardspace co-founder Avaunt <a href="https://t.me/c/2346547958/380">said</a> in the Lightspeed Telegram chat. Rather, pump.fun likely never properly registered and complied with the UK’s crypto guidelines, and the regulator is just now holding it accountable.



Pump.fun has some apparent links to the UK. When the then-nascent platform was exploited by former contractor Jarett Dunn in May, he was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pump-dot-fun-exploiter-arrest-london">arrested in London</a>. Dunn, a notorious online troll, did make a seemingly-serious <a href="https://x.com/jarettdunn/status/1792219540060864549">claim</a> that pump.fun is linked to a UK-based entity called Baton Corporation.&nbsp;



“Pump is not legally based in the UK,” the platform’s pseudonymous founder alon told me in a text, but they declined to elaborate further.



Zooming out for a second though, it’s somewhat surprising a pump.fun restriction took this long in the first place. The UK is no crypto libertarian paradise — for example, prediction market favorite Polymarket is already unavailable there. The UK’s financial regulator <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-finds-crypto-ownership-continues-rise-it-delivers-plans-regulate-crypto#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20year%20of,websites%20and%20over%2050%20apps.">claims</a> to have taken down “over 900 scam crypto websites and over 50 apps” since October 2023.



“Thought IP [address] restrictions were pretty common in this industry lol not quite sure why [everyone is] freaking out,” Tom, anonymous contributor to Raydium, told me in a text.



Pump.fun has been the most popular app on Solana — and at times in all of crypto — for much of this year. With that popularity will inevitably come scrutiny, especially when users are beheading chickens on livestream in hopes of making a token’s price go up. If Gary Gensler’s SEC tenure were to continue past this year, it’s hard to imagine the SEC wouldn’t have taken some sort of action against pump.fun, too.



How the fallout from pump.fun’s livestream snafu settles will be something to watch. Perhaps regulators will be able to do what criticism or backlash never could — slow down a startup that has already <a href="https://dune.com/adam_tehc/pumpfun">generated</a> $283 million in revenue in its first year of existence.



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Pump.fun restricts access for UK users

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Remember when the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-sues-coinbase">SEC sued Coinbase</a> last year for alleged securities violations? And then earlier this year, the crypto exchange <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-lawsuit-sec-fdic-foia-dispute">launched suits</a> against the SEC and FDIC after its Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests were denied?&nbsp;



Related, Coinbase on Friday shared letters from the FDIC. The documents, <a href="https://x.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1865036008989106594">according</a> to chief legal officer Paul Grewal, show that “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/chokepoint-2-0-efforts-effective">Operation Chokepoint 2.0</a> wasn&#8217;t just some crypto conspiracy theory.”&nbsp;



A March 2022 letter about a proposed “fintech product” (written by FDIC assistant regional director Eric Guyot) notes, for example, the FDIC “has not yet determined what, if any, regulatory filings will be necessary for a bank to engage in this type of activity.” Guyot then adds: “As a result, we respectfully ask that you pause all crypto asset-related <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/operation-choke-point-2-0">activity</a>.”



The black highlighter tool (i.e., government redactions) was used plenty on that letter and others. The FDIC is “still hiding behind way overbroad redactions,” Grewal explained.



History Associates, a consultancy firm Coinbase hired in 2023 to help <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-sec-foia-lawsuit-continues">retrieve records</a>, said in a Friday court <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/c5bd0wqjc7v0/5JkeqemWbKj7reB6R7O1J7/808b360191cc0e1117482fe5b1d14817/-26-_Joint_Status_Report_Requesting_In_Camera_Review.pdf">filing</a> that it’s not satisfied with what the FDIC produced.



First, the letters appear to redact information about the type of digital asset products or services at issue, History Associates notes. And secondly, heavy redactions in four specific letters “makes it difficult for History Associates to evaluate whether the FDIC has disclosed all non-exempt portions of those letters.”



The FDIC claims, according to the court filing, that the redactions help protect the identity of the banks. An FDIC spokesperson declined to comment further.



Operation Chokepoint 2.0 claims resurfaced recently when a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRj9pIITwEU">said</a> on Joe Rogan’s podcast that roughly 30 tech and crypto founders have been debanked in recent years.



“Law-abiding American businesses should be able to access banking services without government interference,” Grewal added on X, noting the incoming administration can reverse course.



I’m sure there’ll be plenty more on this front.



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Coinbase’s fray with the FDIC continues

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday evening announced his pick for the new AI and crypto czar position: David Sacks.&nbsp;



Sacks, one of Trump’s most vocal and influential supporters in Silicon Valley, is closely tied with administration insiders, including Vice President-elect JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk. Vance has called Sacks one of his “closest friends in the tech world.”&nbsp;



Sacks made a name for himself at PayPal — co-founded by Musk, Peter Thiel and others — in the early 2000s. The three are all members of the so-called “PayPal mafia,” a group of former employees and founders who went on to create and invest in major tech companies like YouTube and OpenAI.&nbsp;



Sacks then went south for a brief stint in Hollywood, during which he produced Thank You for Smoking, a satirical comedy based on the novel by Christopher Buckley.&nbsp;



When he returned to Northern California he founded Yammer, a workplace communications platform later acquired by Microsoft, and venture capital firm Craft Ventures. And then (in what should come as a shock to no one), he started a podcast during the Covid pandemic. “All-In” is co-hosted by fellow VCs Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg.&nbsp;



“David Sacks is the very best of America — a successful entrepreneur, a principled free speech absolutist and a brilliant technologist,” Palihapitiya <a href="https://x.com/chamath/status/1864850804601229351">wrote</a> on X Thursday. “He will make sure the US stays at the forefront of AI and crypto — two of the most consequential technological movements in history.”



So there’s his resume. As for this new job, Trump said Thursday Sacks will “guide policy for the administration in [AI] and cryptocurrency, two areas critical to the future of American competitiveness.” His objective? Make “America the clear global leader in both areas.”&nbsp;



Sounds like a tall order.&nbsp;



On the crypto side, Sacks is expected to be the driving force behind what the Trump Administration <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">has promised</a> will be a new era of digital asset regulation. Trump added on Thursday that Sacks will be working on a “legal framework” for the industry that will help provide the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">clarity</a>” many execs have been requesting.&nbsp;



It’s unclear yet whether Sacks will have a staff of advisers, but we expect he will. I’d imagine stakeholders in both the crypto and AI industries are already vying for a seat at Sacks’ table. 



As for the AI-crypto combo, the decision to make one czar in charge of policy recommendations isn’t shocking, but I’ll be curious how it plays out. These two facets of the broader technology sector are often <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ai-agents-nothing-new">lumped together</a>, especially as both <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-crypto-innovation">continue to grow</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-future-is-decentralized-compute-networks">raise</a> new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-venture-fund-crypto-ai">regulatory</a><a href="https://blockworks.co/news/decentralize-ai-to-curb-big-tech">questions</a>. But they are two distinct industries nonetheless. We’ll be watching.



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Podcaster David Sacks cinches top crypto job in Trump Administration

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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One of crypto’s biggest go-to market strengths are tokens.



The ability to spin up billions of dollars worth of digital tokens with a click, then use them as lucrative grants to attract users and developers has very much become part of the standard Web3 growth playbook.&nbsp;



It works, but the tangible benefits of this spending is hard to measure.



Grant money invites extractive rent-seekers, creating a cycle of fleeting capital that rapidly shifts between projects in search of quick gains.



As such, DAO grant spending has largely been bogged with inefficiencies.



Since November 2023, Arbitrum has distributed 71 million ARB ($81 million) to ecosystem projects through the Short-Term Incentive Program (STIP) <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/arbitrum-dao-grant-program">grant program</a>. This was a significant expenditure at about 3-4% of Arbitrum’s entire <a href="https://www.tally.xyz/gov/arbitrum/treasury">treasury</a>.



Treasure DAO co-founder Karel Vuong, who eventually did not participate in STIP due to the grant’s<a href="https://x.com/karelvuong/status/1709315736483569768"> misalignment</a> with gaming applications, called the grant a “double-edged sword.”&nbsp;



“While it led to some degree of ecosystem growth and usage as well as learnings to inform a longer-term DAO-led program for incentives, this also came at the cost of increased sell pressure of ARB, poor mitigation of sybilling and decreased value capture resulting from the lower sequencer margin post-ArbOS Atlas upgrade,” Vuong told Blockworks.



As part of the Arbitrum Research &amp; Development Committee (ARDC), Blockworks Research <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/stip-analysis-ardc-research-deliverables/23438?u=blockworksresearch">conducted</a> a study of STIP’s impact on 17 Arbitrum projects across the verticals of perpetual exchanges, AMM exchanges and yield aggregators.



An econometric method known as a “synthetic control” was used to compare real-world Arbitrum to a simulated version that received no grants. In terms of ROI, STIP generated $15.2 million in sequencer revenue for Arbitrum against a $85.2 million marketing spend between November 2023 to March 2024.



In sum, Arbitrum’s sequencer revenues would have generated 43% less without STIP.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcVBvuyxSXOYhT86z8EvagEdXIHl_sydMHkZRQq3oJsk2BIqvjWgp1WcjqeLNQbEa5u4x_oeu_TKyU3ppS5YbJtDg2-LSzST3lGbII-664MLZ7tBWwPv7zwPcaFiHYZCWAWGhrtRw?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1820523798543917252/photo/1">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



A subsequent second grant program, the <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/ardc-research-deliverables/23438/14">Long-Term Incentive Pilot Program</a> (LTIPP), has to date distributed another 22.87 million ARB ($26 million) to users over 12 weeks.



To better track its impact, the metric of “volume-adjusted TVL” was used to better reflect growing TVL numbers that were actually translating into real activity. Simply put, volume-adjusted TVL gives more weight to protocols only when trading volumes are growing faster than TVL.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf-MZ_2ausEmFdEMQWknnH04z0I4crm-P07WRr9VVbILB-VT9Qnqb6SWZVR76ZCSY3rS7Cy9ObK4gaXFYDmaRmTjnPfApcza0dD448GvlxDCpSfMR14WVFmmEzxV1ViumVp9yZYfQ?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/unlocked/arbitrum-ltipp-analysis">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



Based on Blockworks Research <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/ardc-research-deliverables/23438/14">studies</a>, LTIPP had a positive impact on sequencer revenues and Arbitrum’s DEX and lending markets, but not its perps markets:



We find that, for lending, DEXs, and perps, TVL market share grew by 25%, 17%, and -5% respectively. We find that volume market share grew by 7%, 21%, and -11.38%, respectively. And finally, sequencer revenue market share grew by 6.54%. As one can see, while incentives have a positive impact on DEX, lending and sequencer revenues, they do not have a positive impact on perps.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdyFOsEyJlJdXlmQQaNSi32_pYJJCqsbG9o9BBW0Rq2w2AT782vqXXLoyPoYPNfiVms38H8IusOpHPnDYFkEwpsocT8a_4AUqfzgbq05JBu5VjxtNJfcUfTRYU_2NHDOhVpYBEzIg?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/></figure>



For more, see Blockworks Research’s latest <a href="https://x.com/BlockworksAdv/status/1864407444069470254">report</a>, Meta-Analysis on Incentive Programs.



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Do DAO grants really work to stimulate growth?

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Happy Friday!



The bitcoin blues are real today, though We’ve been told by many a bull that there’s still a few weeks left in December to hit another new all-time high. We’ll just have to see if that pans out.&nbsp;



Keep calm and carry on, as the UK government once advised. We think it’s pretty relevant right now.&nbsp;



Anyway, this morning, we’re diving into this cycle and why it’s really not that different from past cycles (sorry, y’all) and a lot of people have thoughts on AI agents and where they go from here.&nbsp;



See you bright and early Monday.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This time is no different</h2>



It’s always tempting to go against the grain. To believe this time is different.



The problem with that is, at least in crypto, everything that is happening today has already played out in the past.&nbsp;



Bitcoin bull markets have so far been cyclical and, therefore, even predictable.



With the exception of BTC’s all-time high <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">before the halving</a> this time around — rather than around six months after the fact — the current bitcoin bull market is totally par for the course.



Those who’ve been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/election-impact-bitcoin-bull-market">reading</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-performance">our</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-bitcoin-bull-market-status">emails</a> are familiar with the chart below. It plots our current run (purple) against previous cycles (the others) as if they all started at once.



As you can see, this bitcoin bull run to date is entirely standard. Not especially fast, slow or explosive, and more or less in line with the previous bull run.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcYuiwE0Il7MWIWhjwY6QSol44gfuhQeXiHAsg7D3gdepfzZX8dtscVjoowSTWRoPJDddJBImvqfV-VkbnrekyO0J7KK4VOEZgtP2T8ukLtKWOTxe4eiQBDVsKrXhl3aXehq0JR?key=DvXPs3aNxCdKm5blI_ybMrN6" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Not shown: bitcoin’s first major run between late 2009 and the second half of 2011</figcaption></figure>



Bull market trajectories have indeed been similar over the years. But there are still emerging trends:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. BTC is taking longer to reach cycle peaks each time</h2>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>



Bitcoin topped about 750 days into its first major bull market cycle between 2011 and 2015.&nbsp;



It took 845 days to peak in the following bull market between 2015 and 2018, and more than 1,060 days in the one after, which spanned 2018 and 2022.



Today is day 746 of the bull market. If the trend holds, we could see another 10 months to a year before a real peak.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Returns are shrinking.</h2>



<ol start="2" class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>



Bitcoin went almost 621x in the first run, over 100x in the second and nearly 22x in the third.



Extrapolating that downward trend implies BTC would go about 6x from the bottom of the bear to the cycle top.&nbsp;



Good news: We’ve already smashed those returns — BTC at $100,000 is 6.7x.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf5RAUp5bGjcKqkxcNZXizw6hifiG-E7JYs89hYw3qHr6nfg_W46SgOWFO_fTYq60N3oPh2B1CZbzRKJODmtX810RwWz3O-Y9IaRzdNNfxAA8Wr4GRzT_fuiBhEnNK-48eQ1qEO?key=DvXPs3aNxCdKm5blI_ybMrN6" alt=""/></figure>



Above is the same chart but for altcoins (everything that isn’t bitcoin).



We already know that we’re getting closer to a potential <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/altcoin-market-returns-against-btc">fully-fledged altcoin season</a>. What’s interesting is just how far altcoins will need to run to match their growth from the last cycle.&nbsp;



The market cap of crypto (excluding bitcoin) had gone 49x by the time it peaked in November 2021. To date, altcoins have done 3.7x at most.&nbsp;



It’s reassuring, at least, that it took altcoins more than 1,000 days to peak on the past two occasions.&nbsp;



So, if this time truly isn’t different, there’s still plenty of time for alts.&nbsp;



Nothing quite like hopium on a Friday morning.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Why the bull run so far has been standard

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Jobs week continues with the latest initial claims <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20242507.pdf">report</a> released this morning. The data came in a bit mixed, but is overall consistent with the 13-week moving average. These numbers are also the first we are getting in the holiday season, which is known as a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-november-recap-december-outlook">volatile period</a>.&nbsp;



Initial jobless claims rose in the week ended Nov. 30, coming in at 224,000. This was a bit higher than analysts’ expectations of 215,000+ from the week prior, which was upwardly revised to 217,500.&nbsp;



States with the biggest increases in initial claims include Pennsylvania and Kentucky.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The overall 13-week moving average for initial claims is 226,000.&nbsp;



Continuing claims eased a bit from 1.9 million a week prior to 1.87 million last week. Analysts had expected no change.&nbsp;



Expectations for a 25-basis point interest rate cut later this month eased on the report. Fed funds futures markets now price in a 29.9% chance of Fed officials leaving interest rates unchanged, up from 21.9% on Wednesday.&nbsp;



Stocks dipped a bit following the release, before paring gains later in the session. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading relatively flat midway through Thursday’s session, down 0.04% and 0.06%, respectively, at 2 pm ET.&nbsp;



Bitcoin meanwhile hovered in the $101,000 range this afternoon, sustaining its rally sparked Tuesday evening when the largest cryptocurrency <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">broke $100,000</a> for the first time ever. More on that, and what we can expect next, below.&nbsp;



We’ll need to see more Goldilocks data tomorrow in the November jobs report, which will be released at 8:30 am ET.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Initial jobless claims rise during last week of November, lowers rate cut odds 

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Solana Foundation’s head of strategy Austin Federa announced he would be departing the nonprofit to found DoubleZero, a network of fiber and subsea cables meant to establish a faster and more performant “new internet.”



Federa had been at Solana Labs and Foundation for nearly four years, becoming one of Solana’s more recognizable public figures. He’s now founding DoubleZero — which will start by supporting Solana — alongside cofounders Mateo Ward and Andrew McConnell. Jito CEO Lucas Bruder called the startup “the most interesting experiment in crypto.”



DoubleZero is an ambitious and potentially category-defining project, but I think it could be thought of for now as decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) for the internet. Individuals in the DoubleZero network contribute fiber optic links, which are basically cables that transmit data with light pulses, to a network that can filter out data before it gets to blockchain validators and RPCs. This all seems like it will be incentivized with a native token and enforced with proof-of-stake slashing, but DoubleZero’s <a href="https://doublezero.xyz/whitepaper.pdf">white paper</a> does not explicitly mention what form its “rewards” might take.



Where will DoubleZero find all this unused fiberoptic cable, you might ask? The project’s white paper argues that there is “substantial” spare fiber in the world. This comes from the hundreds of terabits per second modern fiber can handle, “dark fiber” that has been installed but sits unused, and enterprises purchasing more fiber capacity than they need to prepare for doomsday scenarios.&nbsp;



If all this unused fiber joined DoubleZero’s rewards-based network, it could build a faster new internet just with existing real-world infrastructure.&nbsp;



Part of the impetus to create DoubleZero is that fast blockchains like Solana aren’t slowed down by how nice of hardware the blockchain’s software is being run on — they’re kneecapped by the fact that blockchain data is sent over the public internet where it is mixed with web traffic that doesn’t need to run as fast as a blockchain.



As things stand, blockchain validators have to use some of their computing resources to filter out spam and deduplicate transactions. DoubleZero and its network of fiberoptic links will look to be a “common shield” for local validators, so all of their resources can go toward building and verifying blocks.



DoubleZero’s white paper says layer-1 blockchains are the best use case for the network, but outside of blockchain, content delivery networks, games, large language models, and enterprises could all benefit.&nbsp;



In recent weeks, Solana’s community has taken up that mantra of increasing bandwidth and reducing latency. To paraphrase Michael Jordan, Federa and his cofounders took that personally.



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Solana Foundation exec departs for ‘the most interesting experiment in crypto’

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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There’s a lot of confusion about why the Fed might still be cutting rates right now despite what looks to be an economy that is doing pretty well.&nbsp;



The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently forecasting a 3.3% real GDP growth rate for Q4, and it looks to be accelerating:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdtl9J7nJ-Chd9dEqha9r-eF8RhHlDjUFED-ewSIHa9O0DaG1Ic_F5dgASB4SJ80kFgJeTDckpxIhymQvBisYmIu3JpBa_F08RVNdjuymDiZRd6-9C3ieyN0w03vsL-Dyn3eRJebA?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Further, it looks like inflation is beginning to rebound and has bottomed:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdFa_llnSTH6ux-L1_BCid8_SqM6HPI5sdgZDabh21eEudPG4Sndxm1MPZB9L_WoiGTb--lEbmxljH1JzEul1i4W6KehjTuCBZDzdOLMf1at8BuqEKPgurZvnjgYIyVHlfLrLKV?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Also, financial conditions are nearly as loose as they were during the frothy 2021 era: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeAXpvpU9yaAgkFmak91nvN0rFNmNEIZ5P7IOw6t6KgZCK_O_hECeR2kH8WkLD0WopSRljnSyR3MxpDEPb7nYxvzyNELXewar6MQa8jCjfDeTTmLUuZmUZquXQA96_-apzxn5OP?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" width="624" height="371">



Despite all these metrics characterizing an economy that is doing very well, the FOMC is still sitting at a 70% odds of cutting rates this December. This has many people perplexed as to why they would still cut.



The simple reason is that the committee had already guided the market toward them cutting in December. They would hate to rock the boat, reverse that guidance and skip when the forward curve has already assumed they likely will.



The more interesting answer resides in the rationale behind why they guided toward this cut in the first place. It has to do with r* — the neutral interest rate — and how the Fed measures it.



Because r* cannot be directly measured within the economy, policymakers instead rely on models that do their best attempt at estimating it. There are currently two models well-suited for this job: the Lubik model and the Williams model.&nbsp;



The Lubik model is more dynamic and based on a statistical model approach, whereas the Williams model is based on more traditional macroeconomic models that are less sensitive to major shifts in the drivers of r*.



Considering that the creator of the Williams model — John Williams — is the current NY Fed president, this model is weighted more heavily within the confines of the Fed compared to the Lubik model.&nbsp;



As we can see in the chart below, the Lubik model has picked up a significant uptick in r*, whereas the Wiliams model remains at a secular low.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd8vdlQvAUf42gzfRjIKKAwAa5t4YkztvekmMm50HqmCup8AVBP5mLJ1-x2uxRQHTd48xOLNZ9xDEyH0V5Z7MeIcALguJ4zukCVlV4b-tlYpq7g-P3aQnpJg976cT6ZJXvhutMf-Q?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Because of this adherence to the Williams model, the FOMC continues to strongly believe monetary policy is very restrictive, and that they could easily cut to 4% and remain restrictive.&nbsp;



However, if we use the Lubik model instead, there’s an argument to be made that monetary policy is already at neutral (at a bare minimum).&nbsp;



Empirically (as observed in the charts at the beginning of this piece), market signals are firing off all over the place that we are in a very accommodative environment from a policy perspective. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume the Williams model is incorrect when compared to what we’re experiencing in markets and the economy right now.&nbsp;



There’s been a lot of talk from FOMC members lately around where they believe neutral might be. This suggests members might be rethinking their adherence to the Williams model. Some FOMC members, such as Austan Goolsbee, are even preferring to “feel their way” to neutral. See how the economy reacts, and go from there.&nbsp;



Considering how markets across the board continue to hit all-time highs on a daily basis, it’s hard to make the argument that we’re restrictive. Regardless, a cut in December still looks to be the base case as the FOMC remains anchored to bureaucratic inertia with respect to the Williams model.



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Is the Fed making a policy mistake?

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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It seems fitting that bitcoin’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">rise above $103,000</a> came in the final month of a groundbreaking year for the asset.



You already know about the first US spot bitcoin ETFs in January and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-impacts-since-election-outcome">Trump’s election win</a> a month ago. Then there was the president-elect’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">selection</a> this week of Paul Atkins as SEC chair (who many deem to be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">a crypto advocate</a>). And Fed Chair Jerome Powell even recently compared bitcoin <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpfdHNiuf2s">to gold</a>.&nbsp;



The fact that gold’s market cap is still nine times larger than bitcoin’s (about $18T to $2T) “should offer additional insight into how much more room there is for bitcoin to grow from current levels,&#8221; LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in an email.&nbsp;



Momentum driving BTC past the psychological six-figure price mark can beget more momentum — albeit not without volatility.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“It not only validates the long-term belief of the community but also signals to institutions, corporations, sovereign funds, skeptics and sidelined investors alike that bitcoin has entered a new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/matt-hougan-crypto-reputational-risk">phase of adoption</a> and recognition as a store of value and a transformative asset class,” according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.&nbsp;



Bitcoin had dipped to about $99,000 by 3 pm ET on Thursday.



A key next target is $110,000, Mena added, citing Deribit data that shows the majority of Jan. 31, 2025 call option contract volume is concentrated at that price level.



Industry watchers have also pointed to BTC’s history of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-drawdowns">price swings</a> to temper mania from the most bullish of bulls.&nbsp;



After the early years of bitcoin, the road to $100,000 included a rise to $18,000 in 2017 followed by a plummet to around $4,000 the following year. A surge to nearly $70,000 in late-2021 was followed by a severe downward move to $16,000 in 2022.



While optimism is high that the Trump Administration and a crypto-friendly Congress will help spur <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">crypto regulatory</a> and legislative <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mike-novogratz-on-trump-presidency">clarity</a>, Nansen principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere said those might not pan out as expected. 



He said: “Once we witness the first <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">policies and decisions</a> from the Trump Administration in January, there could be some risk of disappointed expectations, especially if the agenda prioritizes <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-trump-potential-tariff-policies">tariff</a> and immigration-related policies first.”



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BTC’s road to $100K, and what to expect next 

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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Coffeezilla: “This is one of the most miserable, horrible launches I’ve ever seen in my life…” Haliey Welch: “Okay, then why the fuck are you on then?”



That snippet came from last night’s <a href="https://x.com/DramaAlert/status/1864585278469390809">X Spaces</a> for the HAWK memecoin launch by Haliey Welch, aka “The Hawk Tuah Girl.”



The majority of memecoin launches end up going nowhere, but none have cratered quite so quickly as HAWK.



In what might be the fastest rug pull of all time, HAWK launched yesterday to a $490 million market cap, and then nuked to a $64 million market cap within 30 minutes.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdre8TJdx9EG8TtmAsKfjfMc6Wsk36mtUVxCUSubfDLyfkcnbfnOtpTMDgLAIXoTJctwNnDzBqz8u_KDuJShvqIPLHBQVrRtsnRWqdby_3WWNC4oRBO6D2rfPZG6rXJl7TIdhlw4w?key=EZUQprTJ8v19R2pI1pheibS2" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://dexscreener.com/solana/exygvxvrvujjryo65vyuhlaccxhwyztkqa7jxqit2tvr">Dexscreener</a></figcaption></figure>



HAWK has since dumped to a $27 million market cap at time of writing.



HAWK’s <a href="https://x.com/HalieyWelchX/status/1864448384326881713">tokenomics</a> might be the most egregious yet: Only 2% was allocated to the public with a 17% “Strategic Allocation” for KOLs that were fully unlocked on token generation.



Welch has publicly <a href="https://x.com/HalieyWelchX/status/1864448384326881713">claimed</a> that the internal team did not sell any tokens, but insiders were caught onchain doing so. According to <a href="https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/1864439521523196046">Bubblemaps</a>, 96% of the token supply was in a related cluster.



“Straight Tuah Prison” (<a href="https://dexscreener.com/solana/apyqx9q3fwhkxnvsa7vt8ib4agm38iamkiacpsnbvyzy">TUAH</a>), an alternative memecoin, launched as a response to the disaster. It has since climbed to a $12.3 million market cap. Maybe something good will come out of this after all.



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‘Hawk Tuah’ girl’s memecoin launch fails spectacularly

I recently chatted with Ledn CEO Adam Reeds about crypto-backed loans. Spoiler: He expects the category could exponentially boom.&nbsp;



One thing he mentioned to me was, “Price is the best marketer.”&nbsp;



BTC’s price rose nearly 40% in November — fueled by the victory of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">pro-bitcoin Donald Trump</a> and scores of crypto-friendly Congressional candidates. It more recently broke the $103,000 barrier.&nbsp;



Ledn, for much of this year, did roughly $1 million per day of crypto-backed collateral financing (mostly BTC). This allows clients to borrow cash without having to sell their BTC or ETH. The company was doing about 2.5x that amount in November, Reeds noted.&nbsp;



“The last cycle institutions did the work and they said this is interesting, what about this bitcoin thing?” he said. “Things take time. You’re in an organization with several hundred or several thousand people; you don’t build consensus overnight.”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">Bitcoin sets new all-time high above $100K</a>



Reeds noted previously seeing retail investors with FOMO (fear of missing out) on crypto. This time the institutions seem to be feeling that fear, the CEO added.



Financial services giant Cantor Fitzgerald said in July that it <a href="https://www.cantor.com/cantor-fitzgerald-to-launch-bitcoin-financing-business/">planned</a> to launch a bitcoin financing business. CEO Howard Lutnick, recently selected by Donald Trump <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-commerce-dept-leader">to lead the Commerce Department</a>, said at the time the firm intended to launch with $2 billion of lending.&nbsp;



Reeds said he estimates the global bitcoin-backed loan market (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/retail-adoption-crypto-cycle">on the retail side</a>) to currently be between $1 billion and $2 billion.&nbsp;



“The analogy I like is, ‘What if this was like real estate mortgages on the residential side?’” Reeds said. “Well, 60% of homes have a mortgage on them, and what if 60% of bitcoin effectively had a mortgage on it? Suddenly the market’s like $400 billion.”



“That’s with bitcoin at $95,000,” he added. “What if bitcoin’s at $250,000? All of these things start to change.”



Keep reading for more excerpts from Blockworks’ interview with Reeds.



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Blockworks: What has changed at Ledn <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-impacts-since-election-outcome">since the US election</a>?



Reeds: We have been approaching more traditional credit funds that would, for example, finance student loan packages — things like that, that are more alternatives.



I would say the gap we’re seeing is that in this market pullback over the last couple years (post-Covid), there was a lot of attractive yield opportunities. So even though institutions kind of get that bitcoin is a pretty safe [asset] (the ones that are forward-thinking), there’s still so much attractive yield to go after…that it’s a bit challenging to say this is why you should finance bitcoin.&nbsp;



But that’s changing. I think as the interest rates come down a bit, now we’re starting to see more interest because people are a bit worried that they’re not going to get the same yield opportunities they did over the last 24 months.



Blockworks: Why are more traditional finance players beginning to recognize bitcoin as good collateral? Reeds: Obviously <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">regulatory clarity</a>. But I think specifically on the financial side, people [are] getting smart about how to fit it in in traditional buckets.&nbsp;



Most institutions have rules and allocations as to where they can place capital, and it’s hard for them to just buy physical bitcoin.



What MicroStrategy is doing is really smart in saying, ‘OK well there’s a pool of capital out here that can buy convertible bonds. And there’s another pool of capital here that can be MicroStrategy equity. And if I allocate that appropriately … I can <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-coin-price-targets">maximize how much</a> I can attract in the markets by sizing it and pricing it accordingly.’



So they’re getting really smart about that, and I think we’re excited to do the same thing on the pure lending side, because we’re spending a lot of time thinking about how we tap into more traditional financial setups.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cme-data-institutional-crypto-moves">CME data suggests institutions are field-testing new crypto moves</a>



Blockworks: What might be some other outstanding obstacles for institutions looking to get more involved in the crypto space?



Reeds: I think the biggest thing that gets in the way is the information knowledge gap on some pretty basic stuff.&nbsp;



For example, custody is not standardized. The next closest thing is saying these are custodians that the ETFs use. And if the [US Securities and Exchange Commission] has approved them for ETF custodians, then that’s pretty safe and we’re using the same custodians; Ledn uses BitGo.&nbsp;



But there’s no stamp on the custodian that says this is the Grade-A custodian, this is the Grade B. And that’s what [traditional finance] needs; [traditional finance] needs someone else to say this is OK so that they feel OK with it.&nbsp;



So I think we’re forcing them to think about too many things, which is adding friction to the equation. And the same goes with liquidity providers or trading venues.



I think that’s where regulation will help, and just more news. If you can say, ‘OK maybe it’s not regulated, but Cantor [Fitzgerald] did it this way,’ then it adds credibility to the explanation in the way we’re getting it done.



Blockworks: What might be your price prediction for bitcoin long-term?



Reeds: &nbsp;What’s interesting about it is…obviously there are fundamentals around user adoption and numbers like that, but there are no sales forecasts or traditional financial analysis of bitcoin.&nbsp;



So if we push BTC to a price of $250,000, well then $150,000 is a bear market. Every time you have these new lows, then it hits a new step function and we get to the next level. So I don’t think $1 million is unreasonable.



A modified version of this article first appeared in Tuesday&#8217;s Forward Guidance newsletter. Subscribe <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">here</a> so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.



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Ledn CEO details path to crypto-backed lending boom

Macauley Peterson

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M^0, a decentralized stablecoin infrastructure layer, is setting a new standard for stablecoin design with its innovative modular architecture, revenue and distribution model. Its first distributor, Noble, is pulling back the curtain on the Noble dollar, USDN, in a bid to shake up the market and disrupt entrenched players.



For the entire history of stablecoin issuance, Tether has been the dominant issuer. Its market share on Ethereum dipped to 30% in 2022 — following growth in Circle’s USDC and Binance’s BUSD — but thanks to its near monopoly on the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/tron">Tron</a> blockchain, Tether’s market cap has reigned supreme in the stablecoin space.



With <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/tether">Tether</a> ostensibly healthier than ever, it maintains a significant moat — but maybe not an insurmountable one. Robbie Petersen of Delphi Digital noted the importance of M^0’s approach in August, writing that “[M^0] could be best positioned to challenge the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tether-competes-stablecoin-project-increase">Tether monopoly</a>.”&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A new framework</h2>



Unlike traditional stablecoin issuers, M^0 operates a multi-issuer protocol, creating a decentralized system where issuers follow protocol rules rather than centralized mandates. Its canonical stablecoin, M, serves as a core building block for custom-branded stablecoins. Known as M-extensions, the Noble dollar is its first.



This system offers issuers full programmability, allowing these branded M-extensions to distribute yield as they see fit — whether to liquidity pools, users or other stakeholders. According to Greg Di Prisco, co-founder of M^0, this structure provides scalability, safety and liquidity unmatched by traditional issuance models.



“We don&#8217;t believe that [a centralized issuer model] can possibly scale. You can&#8217;t have one company controlling the entire world&#8217;s money supply as stablecoins continue to grow. So, we built a protocol that enables a multi-issuer process,” Di Prisco told Blockworks.



Petersen noted the core issue in stablecoins today is that dapps “capture none of the value they create on behalf of stablecoin issuers.” Under M^0’s model, US Treasury yield can become “not only a meaningful source of revenue for apps, but possibly even the principal source.” This transformative potential could lead to a new business model, he argues: “Selling stablecoin distribution as a service (SDaaS).”



Noble intends to pass on 100% of the USDN native yield to holders of the token — at least initially — according to Jelena Djuric, co-founder and CEO of Noble.



&#8220;Our entire growth strategy has been keeping things as frictionless as possible,” Djuric told Blockworks, noting that Noble has no transaction fees to use any of its stablecoins. “We want to keep it like that, and the beauty [of] Cosmos and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ibc">IBC</a> is that it’s low fee and it’s fast — we wouldn’t want to compromise that in any way,” she said.



Noble has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-moves-usdc-to-cosmos">previously been known</a> for bringing USDC to IBC-connected chains, and generally improving the cross-chain routing of Circle’s stablecoins. But Djuric said USDN will complement USDC on the Noble chain, describing M^0 as “if <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/circle">Circle</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/makerdao">MakerDAO</a> [<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/maker-rebrands-as-sky-dai-will-be-changed-to-usds">now Sky</a>] joined forces and had a baby.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Modularity meets interoperability</h2>



M^0 aims to meet the needs of appchains and fintech providers that want to launch their own branded stablecoins without worrying about the collateral backing, or interoperability — both are baked into the protocol underpinning M.



“All of the collateral management is done for them,” Di Prisco said. “The big difference here between other [issuers] like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/paxos">Paxos</a>…is that with Paxos, you’re going through months of negotiations, paperwork, legal documents, lawyers — [but] because we’re a protocol and fully onchain, [we] can give you your own branded stablecoin in minutes,” he said.



Issuers maintain bankruptcy-remote <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spv.asp">SPVs</a>, and are only allowed to hold 0-to-180-day T-bills that are marked to market. Their actual collateral balance is also checked daily.&nbsp; “They effectively can&#8217;t cheat as long as we maintain the right incentives in the ecosystem,” Di Prisco said.



All M-extensions will be fungible by default, although brand partners have some leeway about exchanges with other distributors.



For Noble, this modular design allows them to maintain a focus on ecosystem expansion. With the anticipated IBC Eureka upgrade — facilitating connections with non-Cosmos-based chains — plus integration into wormhole-supported chains, USDN will benefit from a large addressable market.



“You want to go between <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/osmosis">Osmosis</a> and dYdX in one click with two separate tokens? You can do that on Noble,” Djuric explained.



The Noble Dollar will launch with a points campaign tied to a future Noble token, further bootstrapping adoption.



But the launch of multiple stablecoins <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-stablecoin-entrants-payments-focus">like Agora</a> and M^0, which provide inherent yield, cements the idea that in the future, all stablecoin applications will start with a base yield. Whether this model will truly topple the non-yield bearing incumbents remains to be seen.



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M^0 and Noble set sights on Tether’s $136B empire

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto is “really exciting,” former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins said in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLNFa14msRc">podcast interview</a> last year.&nbsp;



In that same interview, he noted that the FTX collapse just happened to occur in crypto but essentially, fraud is fraud. He compared Sam Bankman-Fried’s actions to Bernie Madoff’s.&nbsp;



Aside from public appearances, it’s clear that Atkins — who, in case you somehow missed it, is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">officially President-elect Donald Trump’s pick</a> to take over the SEC — is not only knowledgeable about crypto but has been active in the space for years.



On paper, Atkins looks pretty pro-crypto, but I was curious to get some idea of who Atkins is and what he’s like. Which, of course, could give some readthrough on how he’d lead the SEC if he were to take the helm — which, as my colleague Casey Wagner <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">pointed out</a> — won’t be for a while because he has to get through the nomination process. The deal’s not done yet, so temper your expectations.&nbsp;



He’s been a part of Securitize’s advisory board since 2019, Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo told me.&nbsp;



“He&#8217;s definitely going to bring a different attitude toward the space that is less about enforcement actions and litigation and more about figuring out what&#8217;s the right regulation for letting this industry flourish,” he continued. Domingo knew of Atkins from his SEC days and from his work as co-chair for the Token Alliance which was <a href="https://digitalchamber.336.thegrove.co/initiatives/token-alliance/">launched</a> by the Chamber of Digital Commerce.&nbsp;



Atkins, Domingo said, is likely going to be “less controversial” and he’s more likely to have “a dialog with the industry participants to figure things out … Not having this animosity toward the industry, but somebody can sit with people and understand, you know, what needs to be done, so that there is investor protection and there is a certain type of regulation, but at the same time, the industry can actually grow.”



In the Free the People podcast episode I mentioned above, Atkins said it was “too bad” that a lot of crypto companies “couldn’t comply” with the current rules “the way they’re written.” He also praised Hester Peirce, who he previously worked with.&nbsp;



“If the SEC were more accommodating and would deal straightforwardly with these various firms, I think it would be a lot better” for crypto companies to work directly in the US instead of going overseas, Atkins said.



While Domingo’s sad to be losing Atkins as an adviser, the US is gaining a “really good” potential leader of the SEC, he said.



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What SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins has previously said about crypto

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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A dream is a wish your heart makes… unless that dream is bitcoin topping $100k, which happened <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">late in the night</a> for some of us.&nbsp;



With $100k breached, bitcoin is the “seventh most valuable asset in the world by market cap, just behind the likes of Google and Amazon,” GSR’s Brian Rudick pointed out.&nbsp;



Since November, we’ve seen bitcoin nearly double to hit $100k. And this climb hasn’t been without its challenges.



“Most investors are underestimating the price potential from continued global flows into bitcoin, whether from companies adding to their balance sheet or inflows into ETFs. There’s substantial interest in getting off zero, and there’s a market structure that is very different from traditional finance, which can lead to panic buying, pushing prices up quickly. The outlook for crypto is incredibly strong and returns are likely to outperform other risk assets,” Galaxy’s Chris Rhine said.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-levels-to-watch">We’ve already gone over the price targets to watch</a>, per Ledn’s John Glover, but I wanted to review one more time given bitcoin’s ability to stay above $100k. If it can quickly gain momentum to top $125k, then we could see a top of $160,000. But if we’re hanging around $100k, kind of like what we’ve seen so far, then $125,000 is the magic number.&nbsp;



Oh, and if you need a laugh this morning, might I suggest checking out this 2019 tweet from notorious goldbug Peter Schiff:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Keep dreaming. Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000!&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1192802503856984064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 8, 2019</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Anyway, putting bitcoin aside (stay with me here), I wanted to take a quick look at some other things to watch this month from K33’s Vetle Lunde.&nbsp;



First and foremost: Lunde said any December dips may be buying opportunities.&nbsp;



“The underlying momentum is not to be messed with. I view hypothetical adverse reactions to surprising employment data or unchanged interest rates at the FOMC as opportunities for aggression. The market is well poised to peak near Trump’s inauguration, where I’ll look to de-risk properly. Until then, my allocation reigns long and strong,” he wrote in a note.&nbsp;



Lunde, who penned the note pre-$100k, is of the mind that we’ll see bitcoin “well into the $100,000’s.”



But a top hit could occur next month, which may track with what we heard from Glover if — and while technical analysis is a good thing to watch, it’s not a crystal ball — we see the levels in his reading of the Elliott Wave Theory.



“The average distance between BTC’s first cycle ATH and its last ATH during its past three cycles is 318 days. Under the assumption that average trajectories hold, a peak would occur on January 17. This is not unlikely, given that Trump’s inauguration will take place on January 20,” Lunde wrote.&nbsp;



Thankfully, bitcoin’s holding above $100k for now, so we can all bask in the six-figure glory.



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Why bitcoin’s $100K breakout is just the start

We’ve hit a milestone moment for bitcoin.&nbsp;



A single bitcoin is now worth $100,000 as crypto prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to take office next month. After the fresh all-time high, bitcoin is truly in price discovery mode — all-time highs have now been smashed against <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-close-to-all-time-high-against-gold">gold and benchmark stock market indexes</a>.



It certainly has been a huge year for bitcoin, which started in January around $42,000. It’s now more than doubled that figure.



Bitcoin’s price has continued to climb since surpassing $100,000, and as of press time, is trading around $103,000 on Coinbase, according to TradingView <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD">data</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1786" height="1154" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-95059" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=1786 1786w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=398 398w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=404 404w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=339 339w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/BTCUSD_2024-12-04_23-07-28.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1786px) 100vw, 1786px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD">Image Credit: TradingView/BTC</a></figcaption></figure>



The development came hours after the Trump transition formally announced its nominee for SEC chair Gary Gensler’s job: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair/">Paul Atkins</a>, a former SEC commissioner and current consultancy CEO whose firm has worked with crypto clients.&nbsp;



Bitcoin hitting the milestone underscores “BTC as the revolutionary asset its advocates have long championed. You cannot afford to ignore an asset that capitalized itself from $0 to $2 trillion in 15 years,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn told Blockworks.



Bitcoin has achieved multiple milestones in 2024, from the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">launch of the bitcoin ETFs</a> to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a>. At this point, it’s hard to keep track of how many all-time highs it carved out this year so far. 



Then there are all of the bullish indicators around bitcoin hoarder MicroStrategy and the bitcoin ETFs.



MicroStrategy boosted its latest debt offering from $1.75 billion to $2.6 billion last month, citing high demand. The raise is its largest to date, and ended up <a href="https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024">rounding</a> out to $3 billion.



The firm will, of course, be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/marathon-buying-btc-momentum">spending the cash on more bitcoin</a>, even if it means <a href="https://empire-31ed59.beehiiv.com/p/buying-the-top-forever?utm_source=empire-31ed59.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=buying-the-top-forever&amp;_bhlid=c4cefe09e51e30b94fa732007447380132cfe581">buying the top</a>, co-founder and former CEO Michael Saylor has previously said.



Prior to bitcoin reaching $100,000, GSR’s Brian Rudick said that the firm believed bitcoin could continue <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-could-hit-100k-within-weeks">to push higher</a> after topping six figures. 



“For instance, Trump is likely to appoint pro-Bitcoiners to key agency and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-cabinet-selection">cabinet positions</a>, which can push prices higher. SEC Chair Gensler may resign and the SEC may inform recipients of Wells notices that it will no longer pursue enforcement, or reduce charges / settle existing cases,” Rudick explained. Gensler, on Thursday, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">announced that he’d be leaving the SEC</a> when Trump takes office in January. 



“Further, the impact of having a comprehensive digital assets framework in the US, should it occur, cannot be understated, and would likely ignite a new wave of participation and development, propelling the industry to new heights. And, other countries such as China, wanting to remain competitive in light of the US’s newfound openness, may unban crypto or become more accommodative to the space.”



The $100,000 level values bitcoin at roughly $2 trillion, which — as Rudick pointed out — makes “it the seventh most valuable asset in the world by market cap, just behind the likes of Google and Amazon.”



Whether the six-figure record converts to a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/waiting-for-altcoin-season">fully-fledged altcoin season</a> is the next obvious question for market participants.



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Bitcoin sets new all-time high above $100K

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The crypto asset manager Grayscale joined the Solana ETF fray yesterday.



NYSE Arca filed a 19b-4 form notifying the SEC that it hopes to list and trade shares of Grayscale’s existing Solana Trust. With Grayscale in, only BlackRock, Fidelity, ProShares and Ark are among the major crypto ETF issuers yet to file for Solana ETFs. But all these prospective Solana ETF issuers may have an achilles heel: The ETFs as currently proposed would <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-spot-solana-etf-filing">not offer</a> investors staking rewards.



This omission isn’t necessarily by choice — SOL ETF issuers followed the precedent set by ether ETFs, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/proposed-ether-etfs-not-staking-eth">excluded staking rewards</a> to comply with SEC guidelines. The details of the conversations between ether ETF issuers and the SEC remain unclear. However, it seems <a href="https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2024/08/08/should-ethereum-etfs-include-staking/#:~:text=The%20primary%20obstacle%20to%20allowing,liquidity%20and%20can%20deter%20investors.">likely</a> that the SEC had concerns about staking rewards being <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/staking-eth-no-security">classified as securities</a> and the potential slashing risks associated with staked ETH.



So when firms started filing for Solana ETFs, they left staking out from the jump. Throughout Solana’s unfolding ETF saga, issuers have repeatedly told me that the benefits of getting <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">regulated exposure</a> to Solana’s price action directly in one’s brokerage account make the products attractive despite their lack of staking rewards.&nbsp;



But the opportunity cost of cutting out staking is much higher for Solana than for Ethereum. Ethereum’s current staking APR is 3.4%, <a href="https://ethereum.org/en/staking/">according</a> to the Ethereum Foundation. Solana’s average staking APR over the past week has <a href="https://dune.com/21co/solana-key-metrics">been</a> 11.4%, according to data from 21.co. SOL’s staking reward isn’t always that high, but even in the relative doldrums of August it was yielding over 8%.



The lack of staking rewards would leave SOL ETF buyers diluted by Solana inflation, which happens when validators receive tokens for running the blockchain. As Dan Smith <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FES9-WXxfHc">explained</a> on a recent episode of the Lightspeed podcast, those token emissions get passed onto Solana stakers via staking rewards, so only non-stakers lose value from SOL inflation.



Leah Wald, <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/lightspeed/2449ecc6-8595-11ef-940d-738b11db87b2">CEO of Sol Strategies</a>, said Solana’s appeal is broader than just staking yield, but noted that “staking is undeniably a value-add.” <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sol-strategies-rebrand">Sol Strategies</a>, which is publicly traded in Canada, stakes Solana and runs a Solana validator.



This could all change of course, since perhaps Donald Trump’s presumptive SEC chair nominee Paul Atkins will be more lenient on issuers and allow staking rewards to stand in applications. Todd Ruoff, CEO of decentralized AI shop Autonomys, said the Trump Administration is “likely to approve staking options in the near future.”&nbsp;



There’s no guarantee of that happening, so in a sense, the current question on Solana ETFs is this: Will investors take a 10% lower return to get access to a regulated investment wrapper?



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