Launch Coin on Believe

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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It’s nice to imagine a world where the price of bitcoin didn’t matter. Sadly, it can never be so.



Perhaps in a vacuum, maybe, in an alternate dimension where human brains are hardwired — like an ASIC miner — to only ever transact in bitcoin and nothing else. Not with <a href="https://www.fon.hum.uva.nl/rob/Courses/InformationInSpeech/CDROM/Literature/LOTwinterschool2006/szabo.best.vwh.net/shell.html">shells</a>, gold or livestock. Only bitcoin and barter, forever.



<a href="https://hyperbitcoinization.com/">Hyperbitcoinization</a> or bust.



In boring reality, bitcoin needs reference points. The ones we currently have may well be trending to zero, but Bitcoin could never fulfill its true calling — payments and storing value — without knowing exactly how much it’s worth relative to something else at any given moment.



Tracking exchange rates quickly turns into an obsession, and for good reason: That’s how fortunes are made.&nbsp;



Few know that better than Mark Cuban, my muse for today’s retrospective.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Money Is Speech</h2>



It’s been eight years exactly since <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/mark-cuban-calls-bitcoin-a-bubble-price-falls.html">this banger tweet</a> about Bitcoin from the former majority Mavs owner Cuban:



“I think it’s in a bubble. I just don’t know when or how much it corrects. When everyone is bragging about how easy they are making $=bubble.”



It was June 2017, and bitcoin had been rallying for about six months straight to cap off a 10x run over two years — from $250 to $2,800 around the time of Cuban’s post.



Bitcoin would push 600% higher over the next six months until the cycle’s peak in December, before retracing by more than 80% across the following year.



Was that a bubble? It really depends on how loose your definition is, but for what it’s worth, bitcoin never returned to $2,800 again after Cuban’s post.



So, anyone who bought bitcoin as he sent that tweet would have never lost money, and would today be up by 3,600%.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Look at Bitcoin. As long as everyone stays in their comfort zone , btc is never more than a SOV driven by supply and demand. Unless everyone drops fiat, no one drops fiat&mdash; Mark Cuban (@mcuban) <a href="https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1268663448847765515?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2020</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nods in Jack Nicholson: “Unless everyone drops fiat, no one drops fiat.”</figcaption></figure>



Cuban’s opinion about bitcoin and crypto has indeed evolved over time — the same guy who <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/mark-cuban-on-the-value-of-bitcoin.html">said</a> “I’d rather have bananas than bitcoin” in October 2019 (when bitcoin was at $8,000) has more recently <a href="https://x.com/mcuban/status/1908344893862269417">said</a> “btc is probably a better buy right now” over stocks, even amid the buyback craze and with bitcoin at $84,000.



It’s not totally fair to surmise Cuban’s personal views from just his tweets and media spots. But I’ll do it anyway.



Cuban’s tendency is to consume Bitcoin through the very narrow lens of prices and profits, and he has certainly agreed with bitcoin’s potential as a store of value, even if it’s really a euphemism for “number go up.”



His most telling <a href="https://x.com/mcuban/status/1426920428237434888">tweet</a> is this, from August 2021, peak bull market: “BTC is a great SOV. Far better than gold. I own a bunch. But it is what it is. It doesn’t have all the special powers Maxis try to assign to it.”



Calling it now: If Bitcoinization is anything like the Apocalypse — 15 signs and all — then let the moment Cuban finally sees the magic of Bitcoin, beyond its price, be undeniable.



— David



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Historian’s View</h2>



To pull a quote from Harry Suddock, when it comes to Bitcoin —&nbsp;“price is the product,” but I’ll add my own twist. It’s also the marketing. Since David has regaled us with a tale of just how late Mark Cuban has been to Bitcoin, I thought it would be nice to provide a reminder that we’re still early.



Take this quote from Zooko Wilcox, written 14 years ago:



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc0FiUG4XAVIQ8SZCpf8nc3AA0gdYt7HN-uRl_wMZq91hwFgqD4YRpYarV_nAiY6BLTELV01MSbrZ47kF9NE4nIoQH8ApyvLM_HI5gAcNMtE7GtgrrpvwUp-O8ZV-9jiYuAoE4n1w?key=2bRz0-TRqtndVWoTllE4yw" alt="" style="width:528px;height:auto"/></figure>



An off-the-cuff remark from a renowned cypherpunk (with his own fascinating crypto story), it’s a 14-year-old observation that rings true today.



It makes you wonder how high the price will be when the number of economists supporting BTC is over 10%.



— Rizzo



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Bitcoin

What Mark Cuban still misses about Bitcoin

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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I know we’ve been talking a lot about <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/circle">Circle</a>, but let’s be honest…whether you love or hate the firm, it’s a huge success story this week.&nbsp;



The stablecoin issuer finally debuted on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, jumping as high as $103 before closing around $83. Quite a ride if you were watching it in real time, but if you weren’t, it closed up over 160% after pricing at $31 Wednesday night. 



What was clear today was that retail was just as interested as institutions (ICYMI: Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-be-likely-to-price-above-marketed-range-mbi24hhn?embedded-checkout=true">reported</a> that the offering was 20x oversubscribed earlier this week).&nbsp;



Speaking of institutions, Cathie Wood’s Ark disclosed that it bought nearly 4.5 million Circle shares, an amount worth over $373 million. Ark <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand">previously said</a> it was interested in roughly $150 million, per a Circle filing.&nbsp;



As my colleague (and <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance newsletter</a> author) Ben Strack <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-nyse-day-one">wrote</a>: It makes sense for folks to be interested in both COIN and CRCL.&nbsp;



“Coinbase is the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-circle-amazon-of-crypto">Amazon of crypto</a> — trading, derivatives, custody, staking and, of course, stablecoins,” Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen told Strack. “Circle now offers pure-play exposure to stablecoins. I suspect investors will want both in their portfolios.



“With stablecoin legislation <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-genius-act">likely to pass this year</a>, that growth is only going to accelerate. So they smash the buy button on Circle.”



But, on the Empire podcast today, co-hosts Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos talked not only about COIN and CRCL but also Robinhood. When Santos asked Yanowitz which stock he’d choose if he could only pick one, Yanowitz responded that he’s “gigalong HOOD at this point.”



What was perhaps more surprising — to me at least — was that Yanowitz said if he were to recreate his equity portfolio from scratch, he’d include <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/coinbase">Coinbase</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/robinhood">Robinhood</a> but not Circle.&nbsp;



“I think we’re nearing a local top in sentiment for stablecoins,” Yanowitz explained. “I think Circle hit this IPO perfectly.”



But it’s not enough to get him to buy the stock.



Meanwhile, GSR’s Carlos Guzman told us: “Such a high degree of investor interest reflects significant optimism about the potential for stablecoins, especially as US legislation gets close to the finish line. As market structure legislation advances in Congress, we could see this interest extend to the rest of the industry, as clearer regulation sets the stage for broader adoption. I suspect we’ll be seeing several crypto companies accelerating their IPO plans now that Circle has revealed Wall Street’s appetite.”



What I’ll be watching now is whether or not Circle can keep the momentum. Hype’s great, but it doesn’t always last, and is $83 a fair price for the stock? We’ll have to see.



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Circle

Did Circle execute its IPO ‘perfectly’?

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Solana’s real economic value, app revenue, and DEX volumes were <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1930337683039236215">all up</a> on the order of 20-30% in May, but one noteworthy figure didn’t keep pace: stablecoin supply.



Today, there are 15% fewer stablecoins on Solana than a month ago, per Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/solana?dashboard=159">data</a>. Stablecoins are often an important source of liquidity for doing things like swapping in and out of SOL, although Solana’s stablecoin dip comes after the gray swan that was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/dinner-with-trump-memecoins-lobbyists">Donald Trump’s memecoin</a>.



Solana’s stablecoin supply doubled essentially overnight when Donald Trump’s memecoin was paired with USDC, meaning investors essentially had to buy TRUMP with Circle’s stablecoin. Interestingly, the fresh stablecoin supply didn’t evaporate when TRUMP investors flocked for the exits, and it even hit a fresh all-time high in April when the presidential memecoin was far from its initial highs.



So given that context, some in Solana find the decline in stablecoin supply unconcerning.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXePty3KuGwKcUnApEIzazGWN961pTfwhuZIygF9eC5Ti4Bt_x2AExHqGvhkXjA1JBnn-nyIqOiiHGO9_xFwTHrdq1l-oGLPhRQr-NTohI7-Pb1Gk6FmBmt8gs2sS-LFqaBREbXsvg?key=MiWNmfJsUfYxuRKsiPBVtQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Blockworks Research</figcaption></figure>



“[Y]ea this chart looks a lot better than the SOL price chart lol,” Lulo co-founder Jesse Brauner said when I asked him about the stablecoin supply dip.



In any event, the stablecoin exodus has been led by USDC, which saw its market cap on Solana shrink by some $1.8 billion in May, according to Blockworks Research analyst Carlos Gonzalez Campo. Perena founder Anna Yuan speculated that the sudden drop in supply could be funds shorting the dollar in a topsy-turvy macro environment.



Non-USDC stables actually grew last month, notably including PayPal’s PYUSD, which saw its supply grow 48%.



PYUSD is one of several newer stablecoins vying for a piece of USDC’s 70% market share on Solana. It’s joined by USDG — a Paxos-issued stable that pledges to share revenue with its network partners, which include Robinhood and Kraken — and USX, a forthcoming basis-trade token that its developer company <a href="https://x.com/ben_solstice/status/1927809303827644557">dubbed</a> “Solana’s stablecoin.”



I have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-stablecoins-stickier-than-anticipated">speculated previously</a> that Solana may look to drive adoption on non-USDC stablecoins, since a significant portion of Circle’s revenue goes to Coinbase, which is possibly building Solana’s chief competitor in Base. On a permissionless network, however, disincentivizing usage of a product that users want is pretty difficult.



Gonzalez Campo noted how alternative stablecoin growth strategies have so far mainly revolved around shelling out incentives for users, but paying for adoption is ultimately unsustainable.



The analyst added he’d like to see a B2B model where upstart stablecoins like USDG share revenue with DeFi protocols to create a vested interest in supply growth.



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Lightspeed Newsletter

Solana stablecoin supply dip led by $1.8B USDC outflow

Ben Strack

Circle shares surged during their first day trading on the New York Stock Exchange as interest in the stablecoin issuer spilled over to retail investors.



The company’s stock opened around $69 — more than double the upsized IPO price of $31 per share. CRCL shares peaked at $103.75 before settling at $82 when the market closed, up 167% from the IPO price and about 20% from the opening price.



Institutional demand for Circle was evident when the company on Monday <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-upsizes-ipo">increased both the number of shares</a> it planned to offer and the price range. Circle <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-price-before-nyse-debut">revealed further upsizing</a> — 34 million shares at $31 each — Wednesday evening after a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-be-likely-to-price-above-marketed-range-mbi24hhn?embedded-checkout=true">report</a> indicated the offering was roughly 25 times oversubscribed.



GSR research analyst Carlos Guzman told Blockworks that Circle’s “impressive pop” as shares hit the NYSE is “further evidence of the market’s substantial demand for crypto equities as both institutional and retail investors rush to scoop up shares.”



The stock pared gains but held up despite a broader crypto selloff. Bitcoin’s price was about $102,000 at 4 pm ET — down 2.5% from 24 hours prior.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/circle">Circle</a>’s listing marks a milestone for the industry, giving equity investors another access point for crypto exposure. It comes roughly four years after Coinbase’s arrival on the Nasdaq in April 2021 — a direct listing different from the IPO route that Circle chose.



VanEck’s Matthew Sigel <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand">told Blockworks Tuesday</a>: “If Coinbase is one of the main storefronts in the onchain economy, Circle could be the payments pipework running beneath it: less visible, but still essential to the flow of capital and trust.”



Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen said it makes sense for investors with a positive outlook on the long-term growth of crypto to hold both COIN and CRCL.&nbsp;



&#8220;Coinbase is the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-circle-amazon-of-crypto">Amazon of crypto</a> — trading, derivatives, custody, staking and, of course, stablecoins,” Rasmussen said. “Circle now offers pure-play exposure to stablecoins. I suspect investors will want both in their portfolios.”



Circle’s USDC stablecoin has a market cap of roughly $62 billion — about a quarter of the broader stablecoin market (~$230 billion). Tether (USDT) leads the category with a market cap above $150 billion. Public market investors examining the stablecoin space notice that Tether generates more profit than Goldman Sachs, Rasmussen noted. The company posted an operating profit exceeding $1 billion during the first quarter. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Why are people shocked by the CRCL price action? Circle is going after the same market as Tether, which generates more profit than Goldman Sachs (and Goldman&#39;s worth $187 billion). Circle is currently valued at $17 billion&#8230; <a href="https://t.co/vtxSY2KIxT">pic.twitter.com/vtxSY2KIxT</a>&mdash; Ryan Rasmussen (@RasterlyRock) <a href="https://twitter.com/RasterlyRock/status/1930698675527078391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“They want to invest in it, but they can&#8217;t; they know that Circle is the second-largest stablecoin issuer today and is growing rapidly,” the Bitwise executive told Blockworks. “With stablecoin legislation <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-genius-act">likely to pass this year</a>, that growth is only going to accelerate. So, they smash the buy button on Circle.”



While Circle labeled “intense and increasing competition” and “fluctuations in interest rates” as risk factors in IPO filings, industry watchers have pointed to tailwinds for the company. Aside from regulatory clarity, we have seen many traditional financial companies exploring more ways to use blockchain technology.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“To say that stablecoins are simply a new form of payment or a new digital currency would be like saying that the internet is a better version of the fax machine,” Circle executive Spencer Spinnell said at last week’s Stablecon conference.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecon-execs-bullish-stablecoins-financial-revolution">Digesting Stablecon: Execs bullish on imminent financial infrastructure revolution</a>



Circle’s public debut follows the Nasdaq listings of fellow crypto-focused firms Galaxy Digital and DeFi Technologies last month. Segment observers had predicted 2025 to be a year of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2025-crypto-stocks-to-watch">more crypto public listings</a>, as well as mergers and acquisitions.



Guzman noted: “With this IPO surpassing everyone’s expectations, we’ll likely see greater institutional and retail attention directed toward crypto and stablecoins, along with more crypto companies looking to go public.”



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Circle ends NYSE debut up 167% from IPO price

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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This week is all about the labor market! With the jobs report coming out tomorrow, let’s dive in and get a state of play on where things stand.&nbsp;



My favorite way to get a high-level pulse on the labor market is taking a look at Atlanta Fed’s labor market spider chart:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdl_1-GmyBgNjNKdMUI41Ss4x5RPqT4t08Uex5Jx3wCK_fbt03yG7IT1k2y38ZZUsrF7-hrb-toq0F36TE9K2wIRxCa3etSggRf5_ciRgz2Jnwu_y4DBx8tKX76rrr2Z6rLrTld?key=P1xUCJRImdAC8G2rHgJigA" alt=""/></figure>



Compared to both one year ago and to the pre-Covid trend, we can glean a few general trends:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The private sector is quite weak and continues to be. Hiring rates are very low, causing people to hold onto their jobs and avoid quitting at all costs.</li>



<li>Wage growth, one of the key drivers of the huge inflation we saw in 2021-2022, continues to soften as the labor market returns to being in balance.</li>



<li>Generally, it’s a bad time to look for a new job, but as long as you don’t quit, it’s unlikely you’ll be laid off either.</li>
</ul>



With the stage set, let’s dig into all the labor market data we’ve received this week.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">JOLTS</h2>



On Monday, we received the JOLTS report for April, which came in quite strong.



Job openings rebounded higher to 7.39 million, above consensus expectations of 7.10 million.



However, when contrasting it to higher-frequency data like Indeed Job Postings, this is likely to be an outlier bounce higher that is likely to return to a downward trend next month.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfBLuU8ER87COjuMY2STgxWLLa1pR8h2QV1-j9yOTXixfzXPbYXtBuPWj3ewJYrMxKS4YcbX1OOa72QaiXVKnY7rhq4ydawC7g3TkVMBN0gV4hXB3yYvfWvanqwu36Hz9G1vNy0Xg?key=P1xUCJRImdAC8G2rHgJigA" alt=""/></figure>



One of the key insights for understanding slack in the labor market is comparing the number of job openings to unemployment.&nbsp;



One of the big reasons the Fed was able to hike so aggressively in 2022 without hurting the labor market is because the huge amount of job openings acted as a buffer so that the unemployment rate wouldn’t tick up. The Beveridge curve is the best way to view this dynamic.&nbsp;



As we can see from this week’s print, we held steady at the low end of the job vacancy rate where there’s just enough slack in the labor market to avoid an acceleration in unemployment:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcSdKL_HEL6fJSwlBhzctWOajhBfV5c8z0tH1hNNrlB2u_J1QwsASelwvXytOvwaQpZsvHd7GPfjfayskXSWCxMeFz8GNYrbZWv5FGdx09TVvAfULwWE1Asj4_xnz4F2WP0fjc1vQ?key=P1xUCJRImdAC8G2rHgJigA" alt=""/></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Claims data</h2>



Today we received the claims data, which provides one of the more high-frequency labor market data points we can see every week.&nbsp;



Interestingly, continuing claims — which saw a new cycle high last week — were revised lower and are now back within the range:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXenzw1VeKvGYZ88zL4N-8gQ5nHapVUXpPJNr7oDCMrFJpSyd8j-6D8Pd-NiHF3kGHQZs9CsGI-rR4U88xjPrSwPh53c6gIb3W-TB0n2PdEHzU8tOO6eXsb3ulxCt4jpw8DknsMvvg?key=P1xUCJRImdAC8G2rHgJigA" alt=""/></figure>



Finally, we receive the jobs report tomorrow, which will provide a good look into how the labor market is digesting the impact of tariffs:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe-zrs5X2pKIR76pN7AxCxGGTH7N0tEMvkTsnSaHd5j7GsfujQwfvUHpUQyn4EOXdlKQ5k8QPs56AYw58ykx3eelJpDFdgWwdkJLJfnDjt68oW_EVU4ieB5Pqa8uVPiB6rJnMF9?key=P1xUCJRImdAC8G2rHgJigA" alt=""/></figure>



Overall, according to this week’s data, a picture of a labor market that remains on thin ice emerges.&nbsp;



Not quite bad enough to crack the ice — but still strong enough to hold up the economy.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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Economy

The current labor market, in charts

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



No, it’s not a Twitter <a href="https://dfpi.ca.gov/consumers/crypto/crypto-scam-tracker/#:~:text=Crypto%20Giveaway%2FAirdrop%20Scam%20%E2%80%93%20Scammer,or%20offering%20airdrops%20on%20a">giveaway scam</a> — a reality show about livestreaming influencers who compete to win one whole bitcoin is coming to Netflix in the UK and Ireland June 18.



The House of Streams <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt28994419/">show</a> will feature eight Twitch streamers who live in a villa in Malta for two weeks over the course of the competition.&nbsp;



EA FIFA streaming host Nicole Holliday is hosting the show. It was created by Mark Holland, CEO of Stream House Media Productions. The show was made with support from the Malta Film Commission.



Holland <a href="https://timesofmalta.com/article/maltamade-reality-tv-show-award-winner-one-bitcoin-worth-97000.1110565">told</a> news outlet Times of Malta that the bitcoin grand prize — as opposed to fiat currency — helps the show feel different.



“Everything about House of Streams is different, so the final reward couldn’t have been a simple cash prize or a trip to the Maldives,” Holland said.



The show’s eight streamers are from different countries including the US, UK, and Australia, to name a few.



And just in case you’re unaware of degen internet culture and how Twitch streaming works, Twitch streamers interact with their “chat,” or live audience that types in chat messages, during their broadcasts. Those chat members can influence streamer behavior, and can send streamers money or other types of gifts.



While it’s not a crypto-focused reality show, House of Streams using BTC as a prize does normalize crypto in a way, especially for younger audiences interested in Twitch and livestreaming culture.



We’ve seen some startup attempts at reality shows in the past that are entirely crypto-focused, like <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt29703667/">Killer Whales</a>. That show, which was very Shark Tank-like, has just a 2.9 out of 10 rating on IMDB.



House of Streams apparently started shooting when bitcoin was near its recent low of just around $18,000, which happened most recently in late 2022 and early 2023.&nbsp;



A lot has changed since then, though — so will the show still feel relevant in 2025?



1 BTC is now more than $104,000. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap hit a new all-time high of over $111,000 just two weeks ago.&nbsp;



“I think it will lead the way for shows that have real-time audience participation and will reshape the ‘real’ in reality TV,” Holland said.



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Gaming

Netflix show to give away 1 BTC in Twitch streamer competition

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Since its genesis, crypto has been a wildly speculative market where excellence in storytelling commands a price premium.



Crypto’s average daily volatility is several times higher than that of traditional assets like gold or equities.



Storytelling pervades all capital markets, but why is it especially pervasive and magnified in crypto?&nbsp;



I can think of two reasons.&nbsp;



The most obvious: its permissionless nature. Anyone can buy a token (no KYC), and anyone can launch a token (see <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pumpdotfun-token-sale">pump.fun’s success</a>).



A second and more subtle reason: weak legal protections for token holders.



As a professional investor, these are all questions you have to reckon with:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Will your DAO launch a second token?</li>



<li>Do protocol revenues accrete to private equity, rather than the token?</li>



<li>What do your token’s market-making agreements look like?</li>



<li>Will founders sell their allocations on the private OTC market quietly?</li>
</ul>



All of these questions (with no answers) create uncertainty for investors, which shrinks the available market pie to the most degenerate gamblers.



That, in turn, produces incentives for companies to ignore the laws of profit and loss and rather play the narrative game, or what Theia Research’s Felipe Montealegre termed “<a href="https://youtu.be/99XsVSN_doQ">narrative Stalinism</a>” in a recent talk.



“Whoever decides what the narrative is decides what tokens do well regardless of product-market fit and customers, and decides who gets more capital or less capital to invest. It’s a perverse equilibrium.”



To be sure, storytelling is and has always been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockworks-research-crypto-investing">part of investing</a>.&nbsp;



Investing is fundamentally a social, not natural, science.



And the social sciences will always contain elements of subjectivity — contrary to mainstream economics, where the economy can be neatly modulated on a supply and demand graph with perfect causal explanations.



F. Ross Johnson, the CEO of the great American food and tobacco conglomerate RJR Nabisco in the 1980s, often lamented the poor market valuation of his shares despite its great cash flows.



In the revered business book Barbarians at the Gate, Johnson famously complained:&nbsp;



“It’s plain as the nose on your face that this company is wildly undervalued…we tried to put food and tobacco businesses together, and it hasn’t worked. Diversification is not working. We are sitting on food assets that are worth 25x earnings and we trade at 9x earnings, because we’re still seen as a tobacco company.”



Negative cultural perceptions of tobacco soiled RJR Nabisco’s prospects.



But in the case of crypto, the problem is even more fundamental.



Fundamental property rights suck.



As Montealegre argued, most companies play the game of “narrative Stalinism” because weak token holder protections raise the cost of capital and entry barriers for more risk-averse institutional investors.



From the viewpoint of a fundamentals investor, wishing for an alt season so “number goes up” is pure hopium. You’re better off betting on a token with real revenue flows, but first: Fix the property rights problem.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fundamental companies</h2>



Despite the prevailing problems in crypto capital markets, however, a handful of companies have punched up against their weight. Revenue-generating companies are scarce, but they exist.



Within finance, Jupiter, Raydium and Ethena are all million-dollar-generating businesses. The Hyperliquid perps DEX stands out at the top, with <a href="https://dune.com/queries/4508934/7532291">$1-2 million</a> in daily revenues.



If you prefer businesses not tethered to the “circular” economy of DeFi, there is the onchain private credit Maple Finance, which hit a monthly high in <a href="https://dune.com/maple-finance/maple-finance">$1 million</a> revenue in May. Or Shuffle, a gambling app generating an annualized <a href="https://x.com/bidclubio/status/1927324325884944639?s=19">$100 million +</a> in “net gaming revenue.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcwWGMa9q_a0nGA7I67wWWafRX6tAxpuunLV-ERhC5sTBEx8r87SfT9o5WoFoS7CUDJaOWQRQZzag2m90vsUeeAE5godw5uImT7zCpanfVf5cfON2u1aDeyS206702R8tCRPgPgtQ?key=DVgGkajGsjjCdTe9gXd0JA" alt=""/></figure>



Even the nascent DePIN sector has a few breakouts of its own, namely the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/depin-grass-reshaping-ai-data-layer">data-scraping Grass</a> (allegedly generating <a href="https://www.bidclub.io/posts/cmbhf46080000eu6u0azpimfs?invite=cmbhf732f0003eu6uwfmf7158">eight figure annualized revenues</a>) and the real-time kinematic network Geodnet, making sub $2-3 million in <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/geodnet-enabling-ubiquitous-autonomy">annual recurring revenues</a> (ARR). 



Debate around the right ways to value tokens is also notably louder, as seen in recent <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/valuing-blockchains-rev-debate">talk</a> around real economic value (REV). This suggests a growing class of investors moving away from speculation, and toward more rigorous approaches to valuations.



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0xResearch Newsletter

Crypto needs to fix token holder protections

FAIR introduces native AI optimization to blockchain infrastructure with Vodafone as a founding validator.



<a href="https://skale.space/?utm_source=blockworks" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">SKALE Labs</a>, the team behind the gas-free invisible blockchain network, SKALE, today announced its plans to launch FAIR, the world’s first MEV-resistant Layer 1 blockchain. Built to serve the future of financial protocols that leverage AI agents for value transfer, FAIR launches with Vodafone as a founding validator for the network. The blockchain creates a fair environment where AI agents and users can access deep liquidity without MEV or other forms of value extraction.



Traditional finance is driven by quant bots executing trades across deep, liquid markets in private environments. With the use of AI onchain projected to increase 100-fold, MEV will continue to extract more value from blockchain ecosystems. Both users and AI agents will need a fair blockchain environment to interact with.&nbsp;By eliminating MEV at the consensus level with BITE Protocol, FAIR enables AI agents and financial protocols to execute transactions onchain and access deep liquidity&nbsp;– privately and with fairness guaranteed.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
SKALE Labs CEO and Co-Founder Jack O’Holleran&nbsp;commented on the news, “MEV has an expiration date. It is a major flaw in the current state of decentralized finance. Today, every user pays a tax on every trade to MEV bots. This problem will grow exponentially with the growth of agentic AI. Blockchains that don’t solve for MEV will someday be obsolete. FAIR solves for MEV by embedding encryption directly into consensus and is the first truly MEV-resistant blockchain, solving a problem the industry has long accepted as inevitable. With the launch of FAIR EVM and the FAIR SDK, developers can now build AI-driven applications and autonomous agents that operate privately, without front-running or manipulation. Whether deploying on SKALE or directly on FAIR, we’re giving builders a platform where cryptographic fairness, privacy, and performance are guaranteed by design.”
</blockquote>



FAIR will introduce native AI integration designed for both security and autonomy. In the short term, FAIR leverages AI to secure transactions, stopping hacks and making blockchain more user-friendly. Long-term, FAIR is built to support AI agents’ onboarding to DeFi, with the FAIR SDK including tools for autonomous agents to interact securely with onchain markets, execute logic-based strategies, and access DeFi rails without risk of transaction manipulation.&nbsp;



FAIR will be powered by FAIR EVM, a C++-based, parallelized virtual machine featuring asynchronous execution, instant finality, and database-level optimization, setting a new standard for performance while maintaining MEV protection and native AI integration.



While the FAIR Mainnet will eventually introduce its own native token, $SKL will remain a core asset through targeted burn mechanics and cross-network utility. FAIR will operate with a dual-token model that creates mutual value across both the FAIR and SKALE ecosystems, with a significant allocation of the FAIR native token going to the community and $SKL holders.&nbsp;



SKALE has already established itself as a leader in web3 gaming and AI application development, and with FAIR, the network positions itself as the foundational infrastructure for autonomous AI systems.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
David Palmer, Pairpoint by Vodafone, Chief Product Officer&nbsp;commented, “The rapid evolution of AI and other automation technologies is forcing the evolution of a new digital infrastructure to serve the fast-evolving digital world, and cellular, Web3, and AI will be a part of it. As part of the technological convergence this requires blockchain adoption is growing with the potential to form a trust and automation link between people, businesses, IoT devices and even AI Agents,&nbsp;which places significant emphasis on security both at the edge and onchain to prevent attacks like miner/maximal extractable value attacks (MEV). Pairpoint by Vodafone is proud to join FAIR as a validator and partner, helping build and validate a network that global institutions can trust for transparency and fairness. We’re excited to foster and maintain this ecosystem alongside other leading validators in the space, to help bring the world of cellular and blockchain and create new trust and automation for business as we move to the AI economy.”
</blockquote>



Through a shared tech stack, SKALE Chains will upgrade to the FAIR SDK, making all SKALE Chains MEV resistant and faster while enabling SKALE-based dApps to benefit from encrypted execution and native AI functionality.&nbsp;



For more information, users can visit:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.fairchain.ai/">https://www.fairchain.ai/</a>&nbsp;



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SKALE Labs launches FAIR, world’s first MEV-resistant L1 built for AI and DeFi

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Decentralization is a spectrum.



No doubt you’ve heard this before. After all, Bitcoin started out much more centralized than it is today: There were <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194078.0">check points</a> and single-digit node counts, and the hash rate is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/satoshi-bitcoin-holdings-wallet-123b">believed</a> to have been concentrated mostly with Satoshi for at least the first year.



But a spectrum needs two dimensions, otherwise it’s just a scale.&nbsp;



For blockchains (and peer-to-peer networks more generally), the other dimension would be “interestingness” — the more decentralized something is, the more interesting it is.



Pre-Bitcoin, e-gold was the most successful alternative digital currency. And it was still very interesting, even with its overt centralization.



Seventeen years ago, in 2008 (and five months before Bitcoin’s white paper), the public got <a href="https://www.offshorealert.com/us-judge-rejects-e-golds-argument-that-it-is-not-a-money-transmitter/">confirmation</a> that e-gold’s legal appeals couldn’t save it: A federal judge had ruled that e-gold was in fact a money transmitter by the government’s standards.



The company and its execs would officially stand trial for operating as one without a license, with four criminal counts against their names, for which they’d plead guilty.



At the very surface level, e-gold was not totally dissimilar from how some stablecoins operate, only it was launched in 1998, when there was no such thing as a cryptocurrency.



Users would first exchange fiat currency for digital grams of gold that would then be credited to their e-gold accounts. Gold &amp; Silver Reserve Inc., an offshore company registered in Saint Kitts and Nevis, physically backed each of those digital grams with actual gold — first in a safe deposit box in Florida and later across bank vaults in London and Dubai.



E-gold users could then cheaply send gold-denominated payments to other users, and balances could then be cashed out via supporting money exchangers.



All transactions were instant, irreversible and tallied by a private ledger operated by the company on a centralized server. Gold &amp; Silver Reserve Inc. charged a minor fee for the trouble, and allowed accounts to be opened without any identity checks, making each user pseudonymous.



E-gold was properly massive for its time. At its 2006 peak, it was second only to PayPal when it came to internet-native payment processing: over 5 million registered <a href="https://www.wired.com/2009/06/e-gold/">accounts</a> spread all over the world, with active users pushing $2 billion worth of transactions per year.&nbsp;



But the cumulative value of all the e-gold in circulation — which we’d probably describe as its market cap — was low by today’s standard. It was only $85 million, converting to around 3.8 metric tons of physical gold to back each unit.



Tether Gold, probably the closest we have to a modern crypto equivalent of e-gold, otherwise has a circulating <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether-gold">supply</a> of over $800 million, but only about 134,000 transactions in the token’s entire <a href="https://etherscan.io/token/0x68749665ff8d2d112fa859aa293f07a622782f38">history</a>. Around 7,250 Ethereum addresses contain at least some Tether Gold, although those include exchange hot wallets holding balances on behalf of an unknown numbers of users.



E-gold unravelled precisely due to its lack of decentralization. In the simplest terms, the feds could shut it down because it was run by a small number of people who controlled all of its functions, from the buying and selling of gold reserves to server maintenance and lax fraud prevention.



E-gold was interesting on a libertarian level — and even with cypherpunks — until the risks of its centralization became glaringly obvious.&nbsp;



Bitcoin fixed this.



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digital gold

Before Bitcoin: Digital gold in the ’90s was interesting, until it wasn’t

Casey Wagner

Stablecoin issuer Circle started trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday at a price of $69 per share, but quickly jumped as high as $75 in initial trading. The company trades under the ticker symbol CRCL. The stock was halted for volatility within minutes of opening. 



“We’ve seen really, really tremendous demand from phenomenal investors that I think see what we see, which is that the internet is entering a new chapter,” Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said during an interview with CNBC Thursday ahead of the listing.&nbsp;



“It is the chapter of upgrading the financial system with stablecoin money.”&nbsp;



This opening trade price is higher than the company’s Wednesday evening initial public offering price of $31, which was above the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-upsizes-ipo">proposed range.</a> Investors who purchased directly from underwriters are now up roughly 144%.  



Allaire rang the opening bell at the NYSE ahead of trading and is scheduled to ring the closing bell virtually from Circle’s New York headquarters.&nbsp;



Circle, its founder and its early shareholders <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-price-above-range-to-raise-1-1-billion">raised</a> $1.1 billion from 34 million shares. After the close on Wednesday, the company upped the offering from 32 million shares.



There was overwhelming investor demand for the IPO. The offering was 25 times oversubscribed, according to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-be-likely-to-price-above-marketed-range-mbi24hhn?embedded-checkout=true">report</a> from Bloomberg.&nbsp;



Read more:<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand"> Weighing institutional, retail demand for Circle ahead of public debut</a>



“This is how the US becomes the global crypto/blockchain hub and fulfills the administration&#8217;s objective,” 10T Holdings CEO Dan Tapiero wrote in a Wednesday LinkedIn <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7335823053962080257/">post</a>. “The bigger companies in the digital asset world gain added credibility by going through a real-world vetting process.”



Now, all eyes are on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-nyse-listing-predictions">how the stock moves</a> in the first few hours of trading.&nbsp;



VanEck’s Matthew Sigel told Blockworks Tuesday that Circle can be considered a “boring is beautiful trade” for institutions given its profitability, minimal leverage and position within the Web3 ecosystem. But retail investors “may find it harder to latch on” to a company with less volatility and brand recognition than an exchange like Coinbase, he argued.&nbsp;



Circle’s NYSE listing comes a few weeks after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/galaxy-defi-technologies-nasdaq-us-listings">Galaxy Digital and DeFi Technologies</a> made their respective US public debuts on the Nasdaq.&nbsp;



Tapiero said at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March that ownership of crypto companies via exchange listings was a “mini step” that leads to more value moving onchain.



“American investors like to own businesses with cash flow, balance sheets, income statements, a proper board — and also legitimacy,” he noted at the time.



This is a developing story.



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Circle hits $75 per share in first-day pop on NYSE

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By the end of the day today, a stablecoin issuer will be public on the New York Stock Exchange.&nbsp;



Last night, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-price-before-nyse-debut">the stock priced at $31</a>, well above the initial range of $24 to $26, so clearly there’s excitement for the IPO. Not to mention, it once again upsized its share offering. We’re now at 34 million shares, and it looks like the IPO is on track to raise over $1.1 billion.



I’d expect the first trade to happen mid-morning if not a bit after, taking the demand into account. So this morning, I’m going to do things a little differently and set the stage for today.&nbsp;



The big challenge, ahead of the first trade, will be carefully balancing supply and demand, Bitwise’s general counsel (and former investment banker) Katherine Dowling told me. It’s something that Fineqia’s Matteo Greco <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-nyse-listing-predictions/?nocache">highlighted to my colleague</a> (and Forward Guidance author) Ben Strack as well.&nbsp;



I almost hesitate to bring up Coinbase, because a direct listing and an IPO are two different beasts. But the bankers on Circle’s deal will be cautious to keep the stock’s price at a level where it can’t take off and then come crashing down to earth…which is a bit of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/coinbase-coin-climbs-11percent-in-premarket-after-nasdaq-debut.html">what happened </a>with Coinbase (the stock hit $429 before closing below its opening price of $328).&nbsp;



“You really want that kind of Goldilocks pricing to kind of try to keep it within a narrower band,” Dowling said. “Obviously, that did not happen with Coinbase. So you want to avoid that scenario.”



A strong debut from Circle, eToro’s Bret Kenwell tells me, would be a “huge win” for bulls and crypto.&nbsp;



It’ll also be a testing of the waters for crypto firms, Dowling added. So far, we’ve heard about the institutional demand for Circle’s IPO, but today will also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand">test the retail demand</a>. Because it’s oversubscribed, she wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a jump in demand which then tapers off.&nbsp;



“I think for the long run, [Circle’s] a good horse to jump on. So I think you&#8217;ll still see that demand out there for the folks that aren&#8217;t getting involved at the IPO stage,” Dowling told me.&nbsp;



Especially given that Circle has (perhaps without meaning to) timed its IPO pretty dang well.&nbsp;



We have lawmakers mulling over a stablecoin bill over in DC at the same time Circle’s making its debut. While I’m not privy to the insider discussions around the IPO, I’d imagine the team is pretty happy about that.&nbsp;



Dowling noted that Circle is just a sign of the evolution we’re seeing in crypto and marks how far we’ve come. Especially taking into account that Circle confidentially <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-announces-confidential-submission-of-draft-registration-statement-for-proposed-initial-public-offering">filed</a> its initial S-1 back in January 2024.&nbsp;



“The importance of that evolution is notable…because it&#8217;s not just as simple as, ‘We had an administration change, so now we&#8217;re pro-crypto.’ It really isn&#8217;t just about that. You&#8217;ve had people…both sides of the aisle, have a much greater understanding of what [stablecoins are], how they work, and that this is a technological change, and I think that&#8217;s been really helpful to that evolution and to getting where we are today,” she said.



“We’ve come such a long way from the Luna debacle, right?” Dowling said. And if nothing else puts this historical moment into perspective, perhaps that will.&nbsp;



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What to expect when Circle’s stock goes public

WalletConnect is the connectivity layer behind onchain apps and wallets used daily.



If you’ve ever connected to a crypto app, chances are you’ve used WalletConnect. Today, the ecosystem is reaching new highs and setting the stage for the next wave of growth.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">300 million connections and climbing</h2>



The network has now processed more than 300 million cumulative connections, moving billions in value. From individual users to top-tier institutions, WalletConnect is the default for secure, scalable onchain interaction. But this isn’t a peak, it’s the launchpad. The next phase is already underway, and it’s accelerating.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Network growth highlights: May 2025</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Cumulative Connections: Verified connections on the WalletConnect Network surpassed 309 million in May, signaling increasing reliance on infrastructure built for scale, performance, and trust.</li>



<li>Unique Wallets: Over 47.5 million wallets have now connected through the WalletConnect Network. This growth reflects broader adoption across apps, platforms, and chains.</li>



<li>Integrated Apps: The number of apps integrated with WalletConnect reached 66,500. From emerging projects to established protocols, developers continue to choose WalletConnect to deliver seamless onchain UX.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">$WCT momentum: Staking, adoption, and Solana expansion</h2>



$WCT is central to WalletConnect’s move toward decentralization. 



Users can stake WCT to help secure the network and earn real rewards tied to actual usage.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>121.3 million WCT currently staked</li>



<li>Over 49,400 stakers globally</li>



<li>Up to 22% APY available through staking</li>
</ul>



Now live on Solana:



To mark $WCT’s expansion to Solana, the Foundation announced a 5 million WCT token allocation for active Solana users. The goal is to reach real onchain participants, builders, stakers, and ecosystem contributors.



Partners include Phantom, Jupiter, Backpack, and Solflare and Solana Mobile. These partners will help identify eligible users. This initiative does not increase total supply, which remains capped at 1 billion tokens.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New ecosystem members</h2>



The WalletConnect Network continues to grow, welcoming new apps and wallets each week. Recent integrations include Rootstock Collective and KuCoin Wallet, both of which enhance the network’s cross-chain utility and access.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Smart sessions: AI and automated onchain actions at the center of the next chapter</h2>



WalletConnect is betting on a smarter future for onchain UX.



The future isn’t about connecting more wallets, it’s about making crypto as usable as possible. Smart Sessions, also known as Automated Onchain Actions, reduce the need for constant wallet popups. Instead, users grant secure permissions, enabling apps or AI agents to transact on their behalf.



This unlocks real automation, better mobile experiences, and a new layer of utility for $WCT. As adoption scales, it’s expected to drive long-term value through higher transaction volume and broader ecosystem usage.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s ahead for the WalletConnect network</h2>



As adoption grows, WalletConnect is positioning itself as a foundational layer of the onchain economy. The roadmap includes several major milestones:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Launch of Total Value Facilitated (TVF) to show real volume moving through the network</li>



<li>$WCT expansion to additional chains</li>



<li>Community fee proposals and mechanism design</li>



<li>Permissionless node operations to open participation</li>
</ul>



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WalletConnect ecosystem update: Growth, milestones, and what’s next

Circle’s taken one of its final steps to going public.&nbsp;



On Wednesday, the stablecoin issuer <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250604831596/en/Circle-Announces-Pricing-of-Upsized-Initial-Public-Offering">announced</a> the pricing of its initial public offering. Shares of the upsized IPO are expected to price at $31. The issuer is going public on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday.



The firm now expects to offer 34 million shares. Bloomberg first <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-price-above-range-to-raise-1-1-billion">reported</a> the news.&nbsp;



The announcement comes just days after Circle filed yet another amendment to its S-1, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-upsizes-ipo">upsizing the offering and the price</a>. The filing noted the company intended to offer 32 million Class A common stock in its public markets debut, a jump up from its initial plan to offer <a href="https://empire-blockworks.beehiiv.com/p/meme-to-mainstream?_bhlid=ae8ff9f4587d7becb731092a20ad1600bbabdb5b&amp;last_resource_guid=Post%3Ae12c0195-6707-494d-9dcd-963bdc706fd9&amp;utm_campaign=meme-to-mainstream&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_source=empire-blockworks.beehiiv.com">24 million shares.</a>&nbsp;



Circle said Monday it expected the offering price to be between $27 to $28, an increase from the original range of $24 and $26.&nbsp;



The changes in the Monday filing marked “a crystal-clear signal of strong demand” among institutions, Architect Partners founder Eric Risley told Blockworks earlier this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-acquisition">Why an acquisition of Circle may be off the table as its IPO approaches</a>



The stablecoin issuer noted that Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest showed interest in buying roughly $150 million worth of shares. A Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-28/blackrock-is-said-to-plan-to-buy-shares-in-circle-internet-ipo">report</a> last week indicated that BlackRock might also look to acquire Circle shares.&nbsp;



Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand">told Blockworks yesterday</a> that Circle is positioning itself as a “boring is beautiful trade” for institutions seeking crypto exposure without balance sheet risk.&nbsp;



“Retail may find it harder to latch on,” Sigel added. “Circle doesn’t have the same volatility, beta, meme potential or brand recognition as Coinbase.”&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-nyse-listing-predictions/?nocache">Why it’s ‘difficult to predict’ how Circle’s NYSE listing plays out</a>



Circle was expected to debut on the public markets this week after filing its original S-1 amendment last week.



Jay Woods, chief global strategist for Freedom Capital Markets, previously told Blockworks that he wouldn’t be surprised if the company picked Thursday for its debut. There’s not a set reason for it, but it has become a popular choice for IPOs over a Wednesday debut.



As Circle was finalizing its IPO, which it officially announced at the beginning of last year, there were rumors of a potential acquisition by either Coinbase or Ripple. However, Woods said that the S-1 amendment pretty much put the talks of acquisitions to rest, at least for now.&nbsp;



Ben Strack contributed reporting.



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Circle shares price at $31 ahead of NYSE debut

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Pump.fun is launching a token. Maybe you&#8217;ve heard? <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pumpdotfun-token-sale">Blockworks first reported</a> yesterday that the memecoin launchpad is looking to raise an eye-watering $1 billion at a $4 billion valuation via a token sale.



The timing has raised a few eyebrows, with some industry watchers noting that the launch follows a <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/pumpfun?dashboard=120">cooling</a> in platform activity from its January peak. At that time, bonding curve volume topped $10 billion, revenue approached $150 million, and nearly 1.7 million tokens per month were launched. Those figures have all dropped by more than half.



To some, it seems that pump.fun rode a euphoric wave of speculative mania, and now it&#8217;s converting that attention into capital while the window&#8217;s still open. Opportunism in crypto? Say it isn&#8217;t so.



The resulting skepticism may account in part for the market&#8217;s sharp reaction following the token rumors.



Solana (SOL) fell 3% on the pump.fun token news and has <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/assets/sol?tags=sol">slid</a> roughly 7% over the week, from recent highs near $170 down to around $156 at the time of publication.&nbsp;



Some on social media <a href="https://x.com/SpiderCrypto0x/status/1930042330477932619">cite</a> memecoin fatigue. Intraday swings <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/assets/sol?tags=sol">showed</a> heightened volatility, underscoring uncertainty amid heavy retail speculation.



But is this cynicism a bit unfair?



Perhaps. It&#8217;s not hard to argue that pump.fun has earned its moment: The platform bootstrapped its early growth with very <a href="https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/593602-12">limited</a> VC backing and popularized a novel product that brought thousands of new users to Solana.&nbsp;



Looking at the data, Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/pumpfun?dashboard=127">shows</a> that pump.fun’s bonding curve and AMM products routinely generated between $150m and $250m in daily trading volume, with platform fees peaking above $2m per day during May. The majority of trades remain small in size (often under $100), suggesting continued high-frequency activity from retail participants.



On the token side, pump.fun has <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/pumpfun?dashboard=120">been responsible</a> for the vast majority of new token launches on Solana in recent months, with spikes of 30,000-40,000 launches per day observed in early May.



This onboarding funnel fed into a broader explosion of Solana usage.&nbsp;



And while it’s true that wallet funnel data shows that only a minority of pump.fun participants go on to use core Solana infrastructure, those who do often move into Jupiter trading, Raydium LPing and experimental dapps, suggesting real (if limited) downstream conversion.&nbsp;



But competition <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/the-launchpad-wars_pump.fun's-dominance-under-siege">continues to intensify</a>. Raydium&#8217;s LaunchLab, Meteora&#8217;s high-profile celebrity token launches, and Believe&#8217;s startup-centric platform represent direct threats, leveraging flexibility and unique narratives pump.fun currently lacks. This fragmentation has reshaped Solana&#8217;s token-launch landscape in short order, threatening pump.fun&#8217;s once entrenched dominance by offering diversified launch strategies that appeal to broader segments of the market.



As for the token itself, little is known at this stage. That information vacuum has left watchers to speculate whether it will function as a fee-back asset, governance token, or participate in future launch rights.&nbsp;



The launch — which pump.fun has <a href="https://x.com/SolanaFloor/status/1930014722117841030">indicated</a> in the past could include an airdrop to users — could reignite some of the segment&#8217;s lost speculative fervor. Or, it might immediately collapse like most of the assets launched through its ecosystem and catalyze deeper skepticism toward memecoin-based speculation. Either outcome could drastically impact not just pump.fun&#8217;s future but the broader Solana ecosystem&#8217;s market dynamics and sentiment.



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Solana slips as Pump.fun token rumors swirl

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Mastering The Art of the Deal is apparently not easy.&nbsp;



There are supposedly 69 days left to ink a permanent trade agreement with China, but progress has shown signs of stalling in recent days. Here’s what we know:



President Trump in the wee hours of the morning took to social media to comment on the status of trade talks with China. 



Spoiler: There doesn’t seem to be much advancement. 



“I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social just after 2 a.m. ET Wednesday.



Last month’s US-China detente placed a mutual temporary (90-day) rollback on tariffs. The US lowered tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, and China decreased levies on US goods from 125% to 10%.&nbsp;



The deal also apparently included a rollback in the strict mineral export restrictions China implemented in retaliation to “Liberation Day,” according to comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.



Last week, when Trump accused China (again via a Truth Social post) of “violating its agreement,” he was talking about China “slow rolling” its side of the deal, Greer said. Greer mentioned restrictions on rare-earth exports specifically.&nbsp;



China is dragging its feet on rolling back the mineral export restrictions, according to a Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-china-trade-truce-risks-falling-apart-over-rare-earth-exports-c36ceb72?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAgx-dmss5tBM6B9oiloLup2S4TUVaOOxisMxNN4LIPyu5Jhtb3qo9Dyc0SeZ0s%3D&amp;gaa_ts=68408745&amp;gaa_sig=ElhNWTewNk-fEkX0uGYrpopTvdHdVcjfye_u_YZAS_2Eep0hO9VkdAEPfwPXlpoaqJj5byON7dRy11laI_hGRw%3D%3D">report</a>. That’s because the US Commerce Department on May 12 <a href="https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-rescinds-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens-chip-related">warned</a> that using Huawei Technologies’ Ascend AI chips “anywhere in the world” violated export controls.&nbsp;



The US did this as part of a continued effort to limit technological advancements in China, so it makes sense that the country would counter with retaliatory measures of its own.&nbsp;



Back to the rare earths. Why does the export restriction matter? China mines 60% of the global supply and manufacturers 90% of the global supply of rare earth magnets. Rare earth elements are essential for technology; they are in cell phones, cars, lights, batteries, you name it.&nbsp;



Solvent extraction (the difficult process of separating rare earth minerals from one another) comes with bad impacts on the environment: high levels of toxic waste, water pollution, etc. The process was actually created in the US in the 1950s, but it’s expensive and unpopular in the States. 



All this to say: US-China tensions may be manifesting themselves as export controls and tariffs, but they’re just tools in a broader economic battle. 



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China

Trump takes to social media to complain about China trade talks

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Stablecoin issuer Circle’s expected listing on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow comes roughly four years after another crypto milestone: Coinbase’s public market debut.&nbsp;



I wrote yesterday about how the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-listing-demand">apparently solid institutional demand for Circle</a> doesn’t necessarily spell out what will happen once CRCL shares list.&nbsp;



&#8220;It’s difficult to predict the precise impact of this listing,” said Fineqia senior associate Matteo Greco. “Back in 2021, there was widespread belief that Coinbase’s stock would soar following its Nasdaq debut. The outcome proved quite different.”



Coinbase’s valuation at the time of its direct listing in April 2021 was widely considered to exceed fair value, Greco told me. And the timing was “unfortunate.”



COIN shares opened at $381 but closed at $328 on day one, Yahoo data shows. Though BTC reached a new high in November 2021, that was the beginning of a bear market. Coinbase stock dipped below $50 at times in mid-2022.&nbsp;



Although the stock has recovered to around $260 today, early investors have effectively been underwater for four-plus years, Greco noted.



With <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecon-execs-bullish-stablecoins-financial-revolution">stablecoin use cases gaining steam</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-genius-act">proposed US legislation</a> on the table, the timing for Circle’s listing appears strong. Still, forecasting how CRCL shares will move on the NYSE is challenging, Greco argued.



“The main factor will be its valuation relative to what market participants deem to be its fair value,” he said.



The $7.2 billion valuation Circle is targeting (given the Monday filing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-upsizes-ipo">upsizing its IPO</a>) is below the $7.7 billion valuation it got in an April 2022 funding round. The final IPO price is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/circle-ipo-is-said-to-be-likely-to-price-above-marketed-range-mbi24hhn">reportedly</a> expected Wednesday evening.



Compass Point analyst Ed Engel pointed out that the $7.2 billion valuation implies a 14.3x multiple on annualized first quarter EBITDA; Coinbase and Robinhood trade at about 30x their estimated 2025 EBITDA.



VanEck’s Matthew Sigel told me yesterday that Circle can be considered a “‘boring is beautiful’ trade” given its profitability, minimal leverage and position within Web3 financial infrastructure. But retail investors “may find it harder to latch on” to a company with less volatility and brand recognition than Coinbase, he argued.&nbsp;



Circle’s USDC stablecoin holds a roughly 24% market share in the ~$250 billion stablecoin segment. It generates highly visible interest income that can scale alongside stablecoin adoption, Engel said.&nbsp;



But, he added: “We also expect near-term USDC supply to remain driven by DeFi and crypto trading volumes, which are historically correlated with crypto market cycles.”Check <a href="http://blockworks.co">Blockworks.co</a> for updates on Circle’s final IPO pricing and CRCL stock movements.



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Launch Coin on BelieveLAUNCHCOIN

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