Liquity USD

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The FOMC meeting was yesterday, and not a whole lot happened.&nbsp;



The Fed committed to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-holds-interest-rates-steady">pausing rate cuts</a> for this meeting, as has been priced into the SOFR curve for many months now.&nbsp;



As is always the case for FOMC meetings, the statement comes out first before Fed watchers comb through it to sort out what new changes have been made.&nbsp;



Interestingly, a shift in language was made around how they’re viewing inflation: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeIlLAfLSWQcL2IBRiIfSTzHUjZEoYs_b1d1CkxjDXmaOr-0bDU7GKSN0IGeYSf6HrBVONPUu-LEgBuj8a0H-h2r47lN-EEazwri0EHnyQeCUiDf8zJrvIGegtf1Hs7cAYdgMBGsg?key=edPN4LwnCuFKP2YW88OM0sqy" width="624" height="55">



Initially, this sent risk assets lower on the interpretation of a more hawkish Fed. Shortly after however, during the press conference, Chair Powell mentioned that this was simply them cleaning up language and shouldn’t be taken as a change in policy stance. This then sent risk assets in the opposite direction — higher. What a whipsaw!&nbsp;



This whipsaw showcases just how important it is to discern which side of the dual mandate the Fed is prioritizing at any given time. So with that in mind and no meeting until March, let’s take a look at where the economic data stands:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Labor market</h2>



Today we received the weekly initial jobless claims data, some of the most up-to-date and high frequency labor market data that we can get our hands on. Notably, we saw a major down-move in claims: 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1008" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-96855" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=408 408w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=348 348w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-5.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Further, we saw continuing claims continue to flatten out:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="721" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-96856" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=1200 1200w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=434 434w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=364 364w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/unnamed-1-2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></figure>



Overall, these data points hint at a labor market that continues to remain in balance and has no cause for concern from the Fed.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Growth</h2>



Achieving solid economic growth without inflation being its driver is the golden goose of central banking. When it happens, it&#8217;s magic.



Today, we received preliminary GDP growth data that shines a light on an economy that remains solid.&nbsp;



Although the print came in at 2.3%, below the consensus of 2.6%, the underlying drivers remain solid.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfVw-djYj4Lbq4U9muneH7y_ngvOj7t1s-r41CRUB4aTV_pqX3VLUEb5VKvrG8-tPdOhdi7uve_Wue4Njo-uOD9tZfLqyfmqouo3AsnHiqK9r_uNT6aBXKYpNn0XQ36IO_ZBkg5gA?key=edPN4LwnCuFKP2YW88OM0sqy" alt=""/></figure>



Consumption remained the primary driver of the growth, at 4.2%. The consumer is the engine of the US economy; so as long as this remains strong, there’s little to worry about in terms of the growth outlook.



Notably, however, fixed investment saw its first contraction since 2023 — of -0.6%. It’ll be interesting to see how the Fed digests this dispersion in growth between the investment sector and the consumption sector. Overall, however, there’s nothing of major concern yet.



Piecing it all together and contrasting it with the Fed’s dual mandate, we have a labor market that is in solid balance and no major concern of deterioration. Further, we have a consumer that remains strong and spending that doesn’t hint at major worries of a growth slowdown at the moment.&nbsp;



This all sets the stage to validate the Fed opting to pause cutting rates here as it takes time assessing how its 100-basis point cuts during this cycle so far impact the economy.&nbsp;



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The Fed committed to pausing rate cuts. Why?

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Advance Q4 GDP <a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/gdp4q24-adv.pdf">estimates</a> show growth slowed more than expected at the end of 2024, but annual growth still came in at a healthy level.&nbsp;



The Bureau of Economic Analysis says the US economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, down slightly from 2023, which saw a 2.9% increase. 2% is the accepted threshold for developed countries.&nbsp;



Inflation-adjusted GDP for the final months of 2024 came in at 2.3%, lower than projections of 2.4%. Q3 GDP was adjusted to 3.1% growth.&nbsp;



Personal spending in Q4 was up again, coming in at 4.2% annualized. Consumers spent the most on healthcare and recreational goods and vehicles, the report showed.&nbsp;



While the figure may show consumer resilience, some argue the boost in spending is just a reflection of higher prices.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Q4 GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 2.3%, powered by a 4.3% surge in personal spending. My guess is that higher spending resulted from price increases that were well in excess of the 2.2% deflator used to calculate real GDP. Underreported inflation is masking a recession.&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1884965321603207263?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 30, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The figures come on the heels of the latest FOMC decision to hold interest rates. Chair Powell yesterday took a more dovish stance, reiterating that central bankers are in no hurry to lower rates.



Looming tariff policies also contribute to economic uncertainties, Powell added. Duration, size, targeted nations and consumer impact are all up in the air, making forecasting a challenge.&nbsp;



Imports were down slightly in the fourth quarter, BEA data showed. Inventories also fell, subtracting from GDP. Both will be key figures to watch as Trump’s tariff plans take shape.&nbsp;



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Q4 GDP declined, consumer spending grew 

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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After two years of development, five independent audits and a rigorous code competition, Symbiotic officially <a href="https://x.com/symbioticfi/status/1884266642416492713">launched</a> on Ethereum mainnet yesterday. As the first feature-complete shared security protocol with slashing, Symbiotic provides an immutable, decentralized framework that eliminates single points of failure and external risks for networks looking to secure their ecosystems.



&#8220;The logic behind Symbiotic was quite simple,&#8221; one of its co-founders, Misha Putiatin, <a href="https://x.com/defi_dad/status/1884698966731706443?s=46&amp;t=yjAdM2ddX0KgGQimu7jcDQ">explained</a> on The Edge podcast. &#8220;How do we do this protocol in a way that has the least amount of drawbacks?&#8221; The result is a security layer that is immutable and permissionless.



&nbsp;&#8220;The core is immutable, we can&#8217;t gatekeep, we can&#8217;t change politics, add fees, do break-offs. Do any stuff that can be hurtful, and people should calculate before they choose Symbiotic,” Putiatin said.



While blockchain infrastructure has become more modular and accessible, security implementation around new networks has been a cutting-edge design space. Traditionally, these networks faced a difficult trade-off: either invest heavily in building bespoke security solutions or compromise sovereignty by adopting pre-packaged security frameworks.



Symbiotic resolves this dilemma by offering a neutral coordination framework that allows networks to define every aspect of their security model — from collateral selection and operator management to slashing mechanics — while maintaining full control. Its non-upgradeable core contracts ensure an immutable security foundation,&nbsp; <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/symbiotic-seed-round-shared-security">like Uniswap</a> or <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/liquity-v2-staked-ether">Liquity</a>, preventing governance takeovers and external interventions.



With its mainnet launch, Symbiotic has already integrated 13 networks spanning a wide variety of blockchain use cases. To give just a few examples: Capx is an Ethereum layer-2 for AI agent deployment, secured through Symbiotic. HyveDA is a high-throughput decentralized data availability protocol leveraging Symbiotic’s restaking infrastructure. <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/expansion/9861c7a8-4979-11ef-b690-b3dbcd2508c2">Hyperlane</a> is a cross-chain messaging framework for seamless interoperability. And iBTC (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/building-better-wrapped-bitcoin-for-defi">formerly DLC.Link</a>) uses Symbiotic restaking to secure its Attestor Network, enabling trust-minimized bitcoin-backed DeFi participation.



Symbiotic cites nearly 50 networks, 78 operators and 55 vaults already integrating the protocol.



The architecture is centered around Vaults — smart contracts that facilitate stake delegation, ensuring economic security through configurable accounting and slashing mechanisms. Stakers deposit assets, operators receive delegations and networks access the security they need, enabling efficient capital utilization across multiple ecosystems while preserving decentralization.



Post-mainnet launch, Symbiotic’s focus is shifting to enhance user experience and tooling for network integrations. By standardizing shared security primitives, Symbiotic is positioning itself as the foundational layer that enables networks to achieve self-sovereignty while benefiting from a robust, shared security model.



&#8220;In the future, I see absolutely anybody being able to tap into this kind of shared network to build app chains or verify anything onchain that they need, on demand,” Putiatin said.



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Can Symbiotic revive the restaking narrative?

Katherine Ross

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We’ve been talking a lot about institutions and their interest in crypto now that the environment is more crypto-friendly.



Or, perhaps we should say more crypto-tolerant based on Fed chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s tone shift.&nbsp; He acknowledged yesterday that banks can serve crypto customers so long as risks are managed.&nbsp;



Anyway, there’s another angle I wanted to dig into after Powell’s press conference and Trump Media’s announcement that it’ll potentially put money to work in crypto.



Maple CEO Sid Powell told me that one potential area for institutional entry is lending. He says he’s receiving a lot of calls from TradFi firms exploring the possibility.&nbsp;



“I think the reason lending and borrowing works for them is that private credit is one of the fastest growing sectors in TradFi. It&#8217;s worth over one and a half trillion dollars and … they understand loans and borrowing as products, so it&#8217;s less of a leap” for them to enter crypto, Powell explained.



It’s likely we see more activity in the bitcoin margin loan space given the contraction that happened after so many lenders failed, and the familiarity that TradFi firms have with the space.&nbsp;



The market is “very liquid” and therefore “very manageable from a risk perspective.”



“We&#8217;ve also spoken with a couple of alternative credit shops … bigger names from traditional finance, who&#8217;ve also expressed interest in the sector,” Powell continued.&nbsp;



“I think that&#8217;ll be one of the first places they start for those reasons: bitcoin is a very large asset that you can use as collateral. It&#8217;s very liquid, and it&#8217;s very similar to traditional equities margin lending.”



Just like the TruthFi announcement yesterday, interest is great. But we need to see money at work before we get really bullish.



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Why TradFi firms could turn to bitcoin margin loans: Maple CEO 

David Canellis

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Can you still be in crypto “for the tech?”



The idealist in me would like to say yes — but it’s an increasingly tricky question to answer.



Cryptocurrency and blockchain, in the most general sense, are money technologies. That’s quite different from something like media software, where being in it “for the tech” can be more easily expressed by keeping the software free to use.



Jean-Baptiste Kempf, the creator of VLC media player, has over the years <a href="https://www.welcometothejungle.com/en/articles/kempf-interview-vlc-videolan">refused tens of millions of dollars</a> from advertisers in order to do exactly that.&nbsp;



In crypto, it’s not so clear. If you’re in crypto for the “tech,” you’re also in it for the “money.”



Take Bitcoin. Those who’ve built out the protocol have helped provide uncensorable technology to send and receive money peer-to-peer.&nbsp;



And it would be impossible to send “money” peer-to-peer if bitcoin was worth zero in fiat terms. The money is the technology and vice versa.&nbsp;



Ethereum is slightly different. Its smart contracts can support non-financial use cases, so someone developing on Ethereum might be building software as a public good — like VLC media player — with no intention to make money from it.



That culture is fast becoming untenable with modern crypto markets. Vitalik, for instance, has faced renewed pressure to morph into a “wartime CEO” whose primary purpose is to maximize tokenholder value (i.e. pump the price of ETH).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">gm <a href="https://t.co/3w3uX9wgpJ">pic.twitter.com/3w3uX9wgpJ</a>&mdash; vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) <a href="https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1882784657202458647?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Vitalik’s new Milady profile picture is wartime coded</figcaption></figure>



To <a href="https://x.com/not_qz/status/1881300604313842106">some</a>, Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation have focused too much on “the tech.” Prioritizing decentralization and a commitment to onchain public goods — nifty use cases with no obvious path to value accrual at the base asset, such as Fileverse, Ethereum’s <a href="https://x.com/ethereum/status/1884646531489247562">answer</a> to WeTransfer, which doesn’t have its own native token.



Maximizing value for Ethereum tokenholders would otherwise look more like funneling all energies towards apps that have a better shot at boosting the price of ETH, which has lately lagged rival SOL.



A difficult task in the Ethereum world. The most profitable apps in the current meta (launchpads, DEXs and prediction markets) have mostly been pushed onto layer-2s like Base and Polygon, a sidechain — too far away to directly impact ETH.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Not trying to defend Vitalik or EF, but just remind people of some facts. Vitalik got incredibly burned early on in Ethereum by people who were almost solely focused on money and willing to sacrifice decentralization for it. This went against his ideals. Maybe he swung too far…&mdash; Laura Shin (@laurashin) <a href="https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/1881703644812206266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The Cryptopians’ Laura Shin weighs in</figcaption></figure>



Still, Ethereum has clearly made Vitalik <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-chain-billionaires-buterin-nakamoto">wealthy</a>, perhaps similarly so to Linux founder Linus Torvalds, another superstar dev with legitimate <a href="https://ideas.ted.com/the-wisdom-of-linus-torvalds/">cred</a> when it comes to “being in it for the tech.”



It’s this divide that’s fast becoming a chasm. A <a href="https://www.salon.com/2002/04/02/stallman/">Richard Stallman-esque stubbornness</a> for FOSS sensibilities is a tough sell to a crypto market trained to hunt for the next 1000x, especially coming from those who have already “made it,” so to speak.



There’s no easy fix. The reality is that focusing on tech — functional use cases over money-making ideas — may simply come at a cost of less market attention.



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Ethereum holds the line between ‘in it for the tech’ and ‘for the money’

Jack Kubinec

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The Solana NFT marketplace Tensor will now split revenue from its social trading app, Vector, between the TNSR treasury and Tensor’s developer shop.



Vector is a mobile social trading app with a built-in crypto wallet that lets users broadcast their trades to other users. With Vector adopting TNSR, the Tensor Foundation — which oversees Tensor’s token — will “steward” the protocols powering Vector, although Tensor’s labs entity will build the product.&nbsp;



50% of Vector’s revenue is set to go to the TNSR treasury, which can be used for things like airdrops and grants. The other half of the revenue will go to Tensor.



Vector is a bit like if Robinhood and X had a baby that loved memecoins. The app is still invite-only, but it is currently earning more than $90 million in annualized revenue from a 1% trading fee, which would be 10x the revenue Tensor earns from its NFT marketplace, Tensor said. A Flipside dashboard <a href="https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/pine/vector.fun-solana-metrics-1rL0A3">suggests</a> Vector has between 4,000 and 5,000 daily returning wallets.&nbsp;



Tensor co-founder and CEO Ilja Moisejevs told me the company launched Vector because it saw the NFT sector dying out and wanted to pivot to a “1000x larger market” in memecoins.&nbsp;



For context, Tensor’s NFT platform earned $9 million in marketplace trading revenue over the past year, according to NFT Pulse. Memecoin launchpad pump.fun made $9 million in revenue yesterday.



For now, the Tensor Foundation treasury will only accrue value from Vector, but Moisejevs told me that in the future the platform’s community could vote to do something like buy back and burn tokens, as the DEX aggregator <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/value-accrual-matters-for-tokens">Jupiter just did.</a>



In any event, TNSR holders will hope the new revenue stream can help turn around the token’s trajectory. TNSR launched at $1.70 in April 2024, according to CoinGecko, and it now trades at $0.39 — despite the whole crypto president <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-declared-president-2024-election">being elected</a> thing that happened in between.&nbsp;



Key to that turnaround will be Vector cracking the code of social trading, which has been attempted before in crypto to limited success.&nbsp;



“What we think is different this time is a) memecoins are inherently social and b) we found a form factor for shared trades that people actually like,” Tensor co-founder and CTO Richard Wu said in a statement.



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Tensor’s memecoin app to send 50% of revenue to TNSR treasury

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Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan last week said that the US banking industry will have to adapt their businesses to allow for crypto payments, should regulations progress.&nbsp;



“If the rules come in and make it a real thing that you can actually do business with, you’ll find that the banking system will come in hard on the transactional side of it,” Moynihan told CNBC at the World Economic Forum.&nbsp;



Crypto exchange Kraken today launched a new payments platform — <a href="https://blog.kraken.com/product/kraken-pay#:~:text=Kraken%20Pay%20is%20available%20for,in%20the%20world%20for%20free.&amp;text=Geographic%20restrictions%20apply.,another%20when%20making%20a%20transfer.">Kraken Pay</a>, which allows customers to transfer assets directly from their exchange accounts. Kraken Pay supports more than 300 fiat currencies and crypto tokens. Sending assets is free, but converting assets from one currency to another when making a transfer will come with fees.&nbsp;



​​“Crypto isn’t just the future of finance — it’s the now,” Kraken global head of consumer Mark Greenberg said. “We’re eliminating the barriers of slow payments and outrageous fees while bringing real-world utility to your fingertips.”&nbsp;



Kraken Pay is only the latest product in the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/moonpay-acquires-solana-payments-startup">growing</a> crypto payments landscape.&nbsp;



Payment service Venmo dipped its toe in the crypto pool back in 2021. Ripple says its <a href="https://ripple.com/insights/crypto-momentum-in-the-us-whats-next-for-ripple-payments/">payments</a> product is getting a facelift this year.&nbsp;



The payments space, from cross-border and remittances to peer-to-peer transactions, has long been an area crypto fans insist is ripe for disruption. 



With more crypto-friendly federal regulators in charge and increased retail and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-inevitable-institutional-digital-assets-involvement">institutional</a> investor interest, 2025 just may be the year we really start to see this sector of crypto take off.



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US crypto firms expand offerings as Trump takes over

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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I know it’s a Fed rate decision day, but let’s also take a moment to go over the latest crypto ETF filings.



Solana and XRP ETF proposals appeared not long after the milestone US spot bitcoin and ether ETF launches of 2024.



Movement on a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-crypto-etfs-approval-outlook">litecoin fund plan</a> preceded REX Shares and Osprey last week <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771146/000199937125000494/rexosprey-485apos_012125.htm?utm_source=forward-guidance.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=46-for-47&amp;_bhlid=ef92a76978d08f6fd573ae2de8a8083020c36a9b">proposing</a> ETFs that would hold assets including DOGE, BONK and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-launch-not-mass-onboarding-event">Trump’s memecoin</a>. Tuttle Capital Management — further testing the limits — more recently <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771146/000199937125000689/crypto-485apos_012725.htm">floated</a> leveraged ETFs linked to 10 different crypto assets.&nbsp;



And just yesterday, Bitwise <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2053791/000121390025007545/ea0228742-s1_bitwise.htm">filed</a> its S-1 for a <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1884351102335721671">dogecoin ETF</a>. Cboe also <a href="https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1884354998231769411">re-filed</a> its 19b-4s for solana ETFs from Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck and Canary Capital. The Gensler-led agency was <a href="https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1864874666445152672">reportedly</a> not interested in considering those.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Politics aside, it’s wild how much the party in control determines investment products everyday investors can access… Look at these crypto ETF filings over past week. We’ll see what happens, but message from ETF issuers is “we now think SEC is open for business”. Big shift.&mdash; Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1884409898244473225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Some have <a href="https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1884352025682694385">theorized</a> that Elon Musk’s backing of DOGE could help fast-track approval of Bitwise’s latest proposal, for example.&nbsp;



A person close to the filings told me it remains to be seen how the SEC will approach the so-called “Winklevoss standard.” The name reflects the agency’s interpretation of the Exchange Act when it rejected the Winklevoss twins’ bitcoin ETF proposal in 2018 — requiring the existence of “a regulated market of significant size.”



The SEC has historically wanted to see such a regulated futures market in particular, for which only BTC and ETH currently exist. Whether CME Group will soon launch SOL and XRP futures contracts is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cme-group-considering-sol-xrp-futures">up in the air</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“How the SEC changes, or doesn&#8217;t change, its view on this specific interpretation is the key for these new filings,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity amid issuer conversations with regulators.&nbsp;



The SEC has not yet publicly signaled whether or not it’s open to changing its stance on this matter. But the person pointed out that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce — now <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">leading a crypto task force</a> — “notably” <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/peirce-dissent-34-83723">dissented</a> to the SEC’s interpretation in the first order that established this requirement.



Mark Uyeda is serving as acting SEC chair after Gary Gensler’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">departure</a>. The senate must still confirm Trump’s nominee to lead the agency: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">Paul Atkins</a>.&nbsp;



Adrienne Gurley, an ex-SEC senior counsel and partner at Venable LLP, labeled Atkins as “pro-innovation” and “not in favor of onerous requirements that are cost-prohibitive for companies.”&nbsp;&nbsp;



Ultimately, she expects there will be “a case by case evaluation” of the proposed crypto products.&nbsp;



“Further, the SEC will have to coordinate with the CFTC on certain guidelines,” Gurley told me. “So I don’t expect an overnight response to this, [but] rather a slow rollout of approvals.”



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Questions remain amid crypto ETF frenzy

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The FOMC today, as expected, held interest rates steady.&nbsp;



The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said. Inflation, on the other hand, “remains somewhat elevated.”&nbsp;



“The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20250129a1.pdf">statement</a> read. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”&nbsp;



Today’s pause comes after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/treasury-yields-on-the-rise">three consecutive</a> interest rate cuts at the end of last year. In the committee’s most recent <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20241218.pdf">projection materials</a>, the majority of participants expected to end 2025 in the 3.75%-4% range. The current target range is 4.25%-4.5%.&nbsp;



Whether or not we see two 25-basis point cuts in 2025, though, is anyone’s guess at this point.&nbsp;



President Trump’s policy plans — mainly <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-trump-potential-tariff-policies">on tariffs</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-revokes-colombia-tariff-threat">mass deportations</a> — are expected to have significant impacts on inflation and the labor market, potentially undercutting the central bank’s mandate of reaching maximum employment with stable prices. Trump <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-presidency-news-01-23-25#cm69u7nzs00003b6md9fbi6gv">last week</a> said he knows “interest rates much better” than FOMC members.&nbsp;



Markets are largely expecting the FOMC to continue this pause through March, calling for only a 28% chance of a pause, according to data from CME Group.&nbsp;



Equities were little changed in the moments after the decision. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite remained in the red, trading 0.7% and 1% lower, respectively, as of 2:10 pm ET.



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Fed holds interest rates after trio of cuts 

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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From the storied halls of The Met museum to crafting a new generation of hallowed Hollywood stories, crypto is making inroads. Two novel projects — The Met’s Art Links and Incention’s Emergence — hint at how crypto is evolving audience engagement with art and narrative.



The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York has launched its first blockchain-powered experience, Art Links, in an effort to gamify art history. This interactive game invites players to explore The Met’s collection by identifying thematic connections between artworks. Art Links rewards players with NFT badges and real-world perks, such as private museum tours and exhibition catalogues. Built on Base, the experience offers some in-game purchases using crypto, alongside free NFTs for players.



The Met’s project is one that falls in the “Phigital” category — blending digital and physical experiences in a bid to modernize the museum-going experience. The inclusion of “Web3” as one of four connection types in the game shows “how artists across time have engaged with core concepts underpinning the blockchain, such as randomization, security and ledgers,” according to the developer TRLab.



In its first week, Art Links recorded nearly 20,000 plays, with over 1,600 NFTs claimed. A new game is set to roll out each Thursday at 12:01 am ET for the next three months.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Emergence: Collaborative storytelling</h2>



While The Met is gamifying art appreciation, Incention and Story Protocol are looking to redefine franchise storytelling. Their new sci-fi project, Emergence — developed with The Dark Knight and Foundation creator David S. Goyer — offers a blockchain-powered platform where fans and creators can co-develop expansive narrative universes.



The project uses Story’s blockchain, which recently <a href="https://x.com/StoryEngs/status/1881403316686762206">launched</a> a developer mainnet, to ensure that all contributions — such as characters, worlds and plotlines — are recognized and compensated via smart contracts.



Incention’s AI co-pilot, Atlas, is also part of the creative process, supporting the ability to generate ideas, visual assets and narratives. The <a href="https://x.com/StoryProtocol/status/1884245147791286528">goal</a> is to allow intellectual property holders to open their worlds to collaborative storytelling while maintaining clear licensing and revenue-sharing models. Is this yet another instance of AI-boosted productivity that streamlines Hollywood’s relationship with digital content creation? Or will AI-driven contributions dilute the originality and emotional depth that comes from human writers?



Either way, powerhouse institutions like The Met and Hollywood embracing these tools is indicative of where we’re headed — the lines between creator, audience and collector will continue to blur.



Crypto’s applications are primarily financial, but it’s worth being on the lookout for novel ways the provenance of a distributed, shared ledger can unlock new experiences and shape culture in era digitalis.



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State of the art: Experiments from The Met and Hollywood

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Let me introduce crypto’s killer app: stablecoins.&nbsp;



I know we just talked about stablecoins, but I wanted to, well, circle back. Duong said he’s frequently being asked by institutional investors if some of the forecasts for stablecoins (like Jeremy Allaire of Circle <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%243-trillion-in-stablecoins-by-2030-jeremy-allaire-usdc/id1499409058?i=1000653902855">saying</a> that stablecoins will hit $3 trillion by 2030) are realistic.&nbsp;



“You think about the level of M2 money supply in the United States, and it&#8217;s <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2">$21 trillion</a>. So we&#8217;re just at around 1% of that if we go to $3 trillion, that&#8217;s still only less than 15% of the entire M2 mining supply as it is so I really don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s far off. I think that the opportunity on that side of things is still huge,” Duong explained.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe3wI-Ls5zgbK7dxI6Kr_IycYP_7P0sdKi6GoIGnHSTGKczI-TRRPtPWLodPbM3chf5KcJXTLjFn2mXf7E1uS60wmkp_PC0nJ4bCNSh_zcrpd4clCwH8tYxNxZ7qH7_PQhB7kUB?key=AxxiNq_JlFrtiF2i8cwol0f0" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Look at stablecoins go</figcaption></figure>



He also thinks that Cicle’s recent acquisition of Hashnote shows its interest in yield-bearing stablecoins, given that Hashnote <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-hashnote-deal-tokenized-money">already has one</a>. Institutions, at least, are very interested in the potential yield-bearing offering due to the macro environment. Basically, high rates lead to more folks sniffing around to see where they can make or save some extra money.&nbsp;



Even with the Fed currently going into an easing cycle, Duong thinks that the interest will remain, backing up <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoins-big-2025-narrative">some of the points</a> made by Marc Boiron of Polygon Labs last week.&nbsp;



“In terms of utility, stablecoins are meaningfully disrupting the payments landscape, bringing crypto and fiat banking solutions closer together,” Duong wrote in the report.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfuRYqDuDAU71ccQbQFjtj3e9a0pplyvTVtv82-MBkIRUcTL3xxDazkQ9IUVxqyvYKdWUcyIxgZDjTmgZpREioKwBVjgysbV91SnthYso1W7TqIzg2YOIW_L_rI_KvWLASYIvzf?key=AxxiNq_JlFrtiF2i8cwol0f0" alt=""/></figure>



Stablecoins really seem to be in the can’t stop, won’t stop stage of growth.&nbsp;



“Behind this growth lies a simple but powerful fact: Stablecoins can make it faster and cheaper for both businesses and individuals to move money around the globe,” Coinbase wrote.



And that, dear readers, is exactly what we want from a potential killer app.



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Stablecoins are ‘meaningfully disrupting’ payments landscape: Coinbase

Institutional investors seeking the most secure and sustainable path to staking rewards have a new advanced option. GlobalStake, the premier next-generation staking platform, joins forces with Ledger, the world leader in Digital Asset security for consumers and enterprises, through its Ledger Enterprise platform. This strategic collaboration delivers a groundbreaking staking solution, setting a new standard for security, unwavering commitment to customer satisfaction, environmental responsibility, and ultra-high-performance services.



“Ledger has always prioritized security and innovation, and GlobalStake offers the option for further diversification across providers and technologies,” says Sebastien Badault, VP of Enterprise at Ledger.&nbsp; “Collaborating with GlobalStake perfectly aligns with our mission. Through Ledger Enterprise, we&#8217;re setting a new standard for institutional staking, offering unparalleled security, performance, and sustainability.”



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Revolutionizing Staking: Security and Performance You Can Trust</h3>



Sophisticated institutions are moving beyond staking providers reliant on centralized clouds like AWS, Google, and Microsoft and the numerous risks of Big Tech dependency. GlobalStake&#8217;s industry-leading advantage lies in its self-owned, bare-metal infrastructure housed in globally distributed Tier 4 and Tier 5 data centers. GlobalStake is pioneering the MultiStake model, an evolution of traditional finance&#8217;s “multi-prime” approach. This strategy encourages institutions to diversify their staking activities across multiple providers, hardware, and approaches to reduce risks, enhance operational resilience, and optimize returns. This translates to:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Unmatched Security: GlobalStake&#8217;s SOC 2 Type II and CCSS certifications guarantee institutional-grade security for your assets. Ledger Enterprise&#8217;s best-in-class Ledger Vault platform further strengthens the security posture.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Unparalleled Choice and Performance: Unlike competitors, GlobalStake offers complete control and flexibility. Stake over 40 blockchains, select specific jurisdictions for regulatory compliance – and experience superior global performance with our independent bespoke staking-tuned infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sustainability: Stake with a Conscience: GlobalStake is 100% carbon-negative, removing more greenhouse gases than generated. The more you stake with GlobalStake, the more significant the positive impact on the environment.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Cost-Efficiency and Higher Returns: Thanks to GlobalStake&#8217;s self-owned infrastructure, this partnership translates to competitive pricing, allowing you to maximize returns on your staked assets.</li>
</ul>



“We&#8217;re thrilled to partner with Ledger and bring our advanced infrastructure and superior customer service to their highly demanding clientele,” says Tom Kiblin, Global Head of Infrastructure at GlobalStake. “This collaboration represents a significant leap forward, offering unparalleled value and confidence for institutional investors.”



About Ledger Enterprise



Ledger is a trusted leader in secure digital asset management, providing cutting-edge solutions for institutions. With a strong focus on security and innovation, Ledger Enterprise helps institutions manage their digital assets with complete confidence.



ABOUT GLOBALSTAKE



GlobalStake is the leading next-generation non-custodial institutional staking platform. Through self-owned, Web3-tuned bare-metal infrastructure, we deliver superior security, diversification, and returns. Operating globally in Tier 4/5 data centers, GlobalStake is SOC 2 Type II &amp; CCSS certified, and committed to sustainability, with 100% carbon-negative operations.



For more information, please visit:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="http://globalstake.io/">globalstake.io</a></li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="http://enterprise.ledger.com/">enterprise.ledger.com</a></li>
</ul>



ABOUT LEDGER



Celebrating its 10-year anniversary in 2024, Ledger is the world leader in Digital Asset security for consumers and enterprises. Ledger offers connected devices and platforms, with more than 7 million devices sold to consumers in 180 countries and 10+ languages, 100+ financial institutions, and commercial brands. Over 20% of the world’s crypto assets are secured by Ledger.&nbsp;



Ledger is the digital asset solution secure by design. The world’s most internationally respected offensive security team, Ledger Donjon, is relied upon as a crucial resource for securing the world of Digital Assets. With over 14 billion dollars hacked, scammed, or mismanaged in 2023 alone, Ledger’s security brings peace of mind and uncompromising self-custody to its community.



Don’t buy “a hardware wallet.” Buy a LEDGER™ device.



LEDGER™, LEDGER LIVE™, LEDGER RECOVER™, LEDGER STAX™, LEDGER FLEX™ and LEDGER FREE FROM COMPROMISE™ are trademarks owned by Ledger SAS



Bluetooth® word mark and logos are registered trademarks owned by Bluetooth SIG, Inc., and any use of such marks by Ledger is under license.



E Ink® is a registered trademark of E Ink Corporation.



Media Contacts:



Phillip Costigan, Global Head of Strategic Communications, Ledger &#8211; phillip.costigan@ledger.fr



Julie Aurand, Global Head of Partnerships, Ledger &#8211; julie.aurand@ledger.fr



Jordan Knecht, Global Head of Institutional Strategies and Partnerships, GlobalStake &#8211; jknecht@globalstake.io



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GlobalStake and Ledger forge partnership to revolutionize secure, sustainable staking for institutions

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released a report focused on the trends we’ve seen so far this year. Some of the data is somewhat expected, but there were also some fun nuggets that show just where crypto is growing.&nbsp;



Take, for example, this chart from a16z.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdEWkWKoCS-zAeFY8jHd5V-q_yQuo3yktHmlsi7a_67Kq6xhofZ-SLfiYMjqpj-x_f6QV0pBaSijMltUbrRaXsYi2ELDy3TIe7-5M2kYG5EwZPTqrvpDewDXIL3H5JzSvVAYjAmig?key=AxxiNq_JlFrtiF2i8cwol0f0" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Coinbase Institutional, a16z</figcaption></figure>



See how large January was in comparison to other months? Perhaps it’s not jaw-dropping, but that’s pretty dang impressive. And before you ask, no this data doesn’t reflect any of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-launch-not-mass-onboarding-event">wallets opened by people</a> when TRUMP dropped.&nbsp;



Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong explained to me that the chart was produced prior to the launch of TRUMP. Though, he added, the president’s memecoin “was also pretty impressive [because] there are a lot of market players who had never touched crypto before who adopted crypto mainly to trade [TRUMP].”



But the attention shouldn’t just be on wallets or memecoins, let’s give altcoins their moment to shine too.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfMNUUvODRjtA9O93M_HBf7RNA_iS1Hap-CxktXaVKddWD_w3GqZxLB8SO2g-jBVwEhjpp-vCr-KyywG_1yy3YN3F82wTrjDjaiIZ66mxLCL_BAkR-O-kugt12Uo2kxl0oNiR9Pzw?key=AxxiNq_JlFrtiF2i8cwol0f0" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Not time for an altcoin season just yet.</figcaption></figure>



Duong thinks that bitcoin’s selfishly been hogging the attention, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for altcoins. He thinks folks are still looking for the “1000x opportunity in the space.”



Perhaps that means that we’ll see more newcomers enter the playing field, challenging the “blue chip names” and the dino coins from the early 2020s.



“When it comes to smart contract platforms or other things, I think people are content with having like ETH, SOL and SUI, but many people are kind of saying, ‘Yes, but what other platforms are out there, what could come next?’ So I think that&#8217;s still a theme now that people are playing the space again,” he explained.&nbsp;



A side effect of this: Sectors are becoming more and more clear within crypto. As Duong explained, we’re seeing memecoins fully carve their own path and separate from other parts of crypto while DeFi is starting to see its own pickup following the shift in the regulatory environment.&nbsp;



AI agents are a good example of the branching out we’re seeing, Duong added, given that they’re focused on the “attention economy” inside of crypto. On the other hand, DEXs are close to 20% of the volume of centralized exchanges.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeWIO9TL8gLxT1Ik29sAqu0SmFRfZSRCzWD5VVMb4h8pe9RKDGaWFq3DWVy2aWuMabNg23FIDEH7nOSX0xto0fmXZddmd9czU4gBOBAnIZZTgzzUs5ipPXaI1b_eXQ9yPk4bxs0?key=AxxiNq_JlFrtiF2i8cwol0f0" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">We’re so back.</figcaption></figure>



“Many of the market players are trying to assess the market at the moment, so they are looking at the sectors, and they know what could be attention-grabbing or getting more revenue. But now it&#8217;s a question of … what&#8217;s going to actually garner the attention?”&nbsp;



So many trends to watch, so little time.



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Institutions are looking for ‘1000x’ opportunities in crypto: Coinbase

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Solana watchers will hope 2025 brings some of those fabled bullish unlocks.



If you search for “SOL unlocks” on X, you’ll find a cascade of warnings that the token’s circulating supply is set to greatly increase in 2025 alongside grainy screenshots of an unsourced spreadsheet showing big unlock figures. While these unlocks are real, industry watchers I spoke to didn’t seem too concerned that the newly-sellable tokens — which account for a small percentage of the overall supply — will add much downward pressure to the asset.



In Solana’s early days, FTX purchased a ton of SOL tokens that came with yearslong lock-ups. After the exchange went bankrupt, the FTX estate sold off a number of still-locked tokens to investors at a significant discount to the market price. The biggest FTX estate Solana unlock is slated for March 1, when $2.58 billion will come available, according to data from Messari. That represents a little more than 2% of Solana’s current market capitalization. 97.5% of SOL is unlocked in total.



“The FTX estate sale of Solana tokens … attracted many new investors to SOL. We will soon learn how many of them stick around for the long term,” VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel said.



Matt Maximo, an investor also at VanEck, said the buyers of locked SOL tokens he knew were looking for 10x returns and had some appetite to hold. He doubts too many of the locked SOL tokens will hit the market.&nbsp;



A second potential source of SOL selling could come from the Grayscale Solana Trust, an investment vehicle for SOL. Private placement investors were able buy GSOL shares at the net asset value of the trust, which represents a discount against the market value of the shares. These investors agree to a one year lockup before they can sell their shares, and a number of those private placement shares were sold a year ago this week, per SEC filings.&nbsp;



When private placement shares unlock, investors can sell those shares to collect their premium, and this sell pressure has already <a href="https://www.grayscale.com/crypto-products/grayscale-solana-trust#stage2">closed</a> some of the gap between GSOL’s market value and NAV.



GSOL only has $125 million in assets under management compared to a $112 billion market cap for SOL, so the GSOL premium may disappear, but it likely won’t show up too much in the asset’s overall price movement.



“None of the [Solana] price action we’re seeing has to do with Grayscale’s instrument regarding SOL,” Jlabs Digital founding partner Ben Lilly said today on a crypto trading <a href="https://x.com/xchanging_good/status/1884244878046961694?s=46&amp;t=0mG6XTvWo-VxuftPqpEz2w">podcast</a>, adding that the unlocked shares represent a small fraction of the total shares. “It is very small, like a drop in the bucket in terms of the size of the market.”



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SOL investors shrug off unlocks

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Blockchain Association published its <a href="https://theblockchainassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/BlockchainAssociation-Digital-Asset-Market-Structure-Principles.pdf">“consensus position”</a> on digital market structure policies amid optimism of legislative/regulatory progress from a pro-crypto Congress and revamped SEC.&nbsp;



The advocacy group crafted these with help from its 100-plus member companies.



The 12 points are not exactly groundbreaking; we’ve heard most or all of them before. But I could see it being helpful to lawmakers and regulators needing a refresher on priorities.&nbsp;



One bullet calls for a regulatory framework that positions the US as the “preferred hub” for investment and technological advancement. Another seeks to safeguard the right to self-custody digital assets using non-custodial wallets.



Further down: “Policies should be carefully designed to avoid favoring specific solutions and focus on regulating specific activities rather than foundational infrastructure.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">3/ Smart, fit-for-purpose regulation must be precise. Our principles on scope and infrastructure emphasize focusing on financial activities while protecting foundational blockchain technology.&mdash; Blockchain Association (@BlockchainAssn) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlockchainAssn/status/1884216793021178314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 28, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Then there’s one stressing that developers of open-source software should be protected from liability when the software’s used by separate, bad actors. Does that remind anyone else of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockchain-association-amicus-brief-tornado-cash">Tornado Cash saga</a>?



Another point with a clear link to the past is making sure there’re clear classifications for tokens — “delineating securities, commodities, and other asset types with precision.”



You might remember <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/regulatory-clarity-ethereum-gensler">Gary Gensler not giving a straight answer</a> to whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Or the SEC lawsuits against <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-sues-coinbase">Coinbase</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities">Binance for alleged securities violations</a>. The agency earlier this month <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-advances-ripple-appeal">moved ahead with an appeal</a> in its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-files-ripple-appeal-precedent">case against Ripple</a> … and the list goes on.



The new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">SEC crypto task force</a> appears to be a step toward change, but what Congress-crafted crypto legislation ends up looking like will be key. The bottom line: lawmakers might want to give these principles a read.

Blockchain Association crafts ‘consensus position’ on market structure policy

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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A new survey weighing industry leader sentiment shows an optimistic outlook for crypto — with a dose of skepticism too.



It includes opinions from some 230 executives gathering at the CfC St. Moritz 2025 conference. Among them are the CEOs of Binance and Ripple, chair of the CFTC, and executives at TradFi giants like BlackRock, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.



The biggest opportunities are going to be in the US, 61% of survey respondents agree — followed by the APAC region, then Middle East and Asia. That comes despite America being back of the pack on the favorable jurisdictions list (as legislation sits today), behind the UAE, Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, the EU and the UK.



Developers moving or staying in the US will be a crucial piece to the country’s chance to leapfrog others, an anonymous respondent noted. The person pointed to a year-old <a href="https://www.developernation.net/developer-reports/dn26/">report</a> showing 19.6% of developers in Western Europe and 19.2% in North America (the two top spots).&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-bitcoin-etf-approval">The popularity of crypto ETFs</a> in the US also contributes to the bullishness for growth there. To that point, 57% expect such wrappers around the top 20 coins in the not-so-distant future. A refresher on proposed funds in front of the SEC can be found <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-crypto-etfs-approval-outlook">here</a>.&nbsp;



Other interesting tidbits:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>76% say the global macroeconomic backdrop is either “highly favorable” or “conducive” for the crypto industry’s growth.</li>



<li>The most interesting opportunities are in fintech, payments and trading tech (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenization-depends-on-use-cases-benefits">tokenization</a>/stablecoins is the runner-up).</li>



<li>About a third of respondents expect TradFi institutions to take over the crypto space, while roughly another third believe there will be a 50/50 retail-TradFi split.</li>
</ul>



Back to regulations, there’s a big “but” coming — as optimism doesn’t cover all feelings.&nbsp;



Roughly 70% believe supervisory scrutiny remains just as intense, or that those risks could even increase.



On the task ahead of the new US administration, ex-CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo is quoted as saying: “It&#8217;s one thing to end bad policy, but it&#8217;s an entirely different thing to create good policy.”



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

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