Huralya

David Canellis

Katherine Ross

Today, enjoy the Empire newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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We’re here. We’ve made it to Friday. For those of you still traveling back from Token2049, I hope your flight was much more peaceful <a href="https://x.com/jade_defi/status/1836440938014511320">than the last one.</a>



Fall is just around the corner, so have a nice, restful weekend and we’ll see you here bright and early next week.&nbsp;



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">So far, so good</h2>



Remember how everyone was so worried about September at the end of last month?&nbsp;



Well, maybe that was a tad overhyped.&nbsp;



GSR’s Toe Bautista thinks that “crypto could display outperformance and buck its recent seasonality woes” depending on how equities perform.&nbsp;



Obviously, the macro environment has benefitted bitcoin so far this month, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-up-since-fed-rate-cut">it’s up 6%</a> since the Fed announced a 50 basis point cut. Though, funnily enough, solana outperformed bitcoin, jumping nearly 12% in the same time span.&nbsp;



But let’s zoom out: 24 hours is nothing when we’re looking at the bigger picture.



In the last 30 days, bitcoin and dogecoin are the only two on <a href="https://www.gsr.io/market-commentary/daily-market-update-september-19-2024/">GSR’s crypto leaderboard</a> to stay in the green. On the other hand, solana is flat.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdotdHF6xUMIrZ9WHSXhj5HY5EyMDb4RC4GGP1HiU64tnhEnqLoAuOuKQ82GQ0g3Er1f7m51HTqTjXZAEkNx8z_eQWVJqdbNEl9F5OYI3IZfd8_ARG04Pt9zojQBqmENLfTJ6G0hkG5Zdx6snVX-feq6zV1?key=Srv4a44tNC5g64zZ3IJ8tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: GSR</figcaption></figure>



“Throughout 2024, altcoins have generally lagged behind bitcoin’s price, and unless there is an unexpected catalyst, this pattern is expected to continue. However, sustained strength in equity markets should provide continued upside for all crypto assets,” Bautista noted.&nbsp;



Over the past 30 days, memecoins have proven to be resilient even as folks wonder if we’ll ever see another altcoin season. In comparison to other categories, memes are up 26%. Meanwhile, gaming and entertainment is only up 9%.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXebZ_61q779ugTQcjXGkHc5-3-51zf2zVXYoaLmDqSMUpeQoc9iROECwgkA8N9xtyqYKt-uqJ2cehrNhR5J5ytgvv5biIHKlxRcBj1Z0vxAPlx7YVunKt63-lAZse4yKiAjhzr3_bGoSYGN7ixPqDqwB-8?key=Srv4a44tNC5g64zZ3IJ8tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: GSR</figcaption></figure>



“Memecoin strength may continue due to the recent surge in speculative appetite,” he continued. “On the other hand, DeFi sits in an awkward middle ground. A Trump election win likely leads to regulatory easing, offering potential DeFi outperformance, while a Harris win could bring continued hostility. Idiosyncratic memecoins may outperform in the short term due to speculative fervor, but sustained outperformance remains in question with an uncertain political backdrop.”



But it might be a tad too early to celebrate these 30-day numbers (and not just because it’s nearly October). Glassnode’s <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-38-2024/?utm_campaign=WoC_38_24&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter">weekly onchain report</a> found that investors are feeling stagnant right now.&nbsp;



“HODLing remains the primary investor dynamic, with all measures of actively tradable supply declining and large volumes of coins maturing into Long-Term Holder status,” Glassnode wrote.



Okay, I also have to point out stablecoins, even though I know we’ve talked a lot about them recently. As Glassnode noted, the current capital could be a readthrough to investor demand (or lack thereof).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe8kPeGnW0D2Czrj2lIQOUFIOakmNS3Tk7qWc2zdhmJNgUV-SrlC2Cq8Uo96DtHLRyGjo74CcsXx2rAyBDwru9_ypGfZdHgBA6xwtGRv4ZzD-vyRLR5BVgbE0MItMp1Lw3EO4q9pJSWfeQAoxhZCT62lB9s?key=Srv4a44tNC5g64zZ3IJ8tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The above chart shows the aggregate supplies of stablecoins</figcaption></figure>



“The divergence between a range-bound bitcoin market cap and a growing stablecoin supply has pushed the SSR Oscillator to a historic low. This suggests that investor stablecoin-based buying power is increasing, with a recursive effect where higher purchasing power can lead to an improving demand side in the future,” Glassnode wrote.&nbsp;



All eyes still remain on the November election, though crypto’s macro ties continue to prevail.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">all i want for xmas this year is for crypto to not be reliant on macro please&mdash; salience (@saliencexbt) <a href="https://twitter.com/saliencexbt/status/1836629393340551248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Let’s hope that, by Christmas, we have a better idea of where this market’s going.&nbsp;



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">IYKYK</h2>



Empire hosts Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos were both in Singapore for Token2049 this week, which led to a <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/e40bcfa6-76f0-11ef-9d1e-4790a6c9aa76">very cozy episode of Empire.</a>&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">I bump into <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JasonYanowitz</a> at the hotel where the conference is. He looks at me in the eyes and says “want to come up to my room” There is an awkward silence as the two other people with us have no idea we’re going to the room to record an <a href="https://twitter.com/theempirepod?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@theempirepod</a> pod Banger podcast No…&mdash; Santiago R Santos | #9159 (@santiagoroel) <a href="https://twitter.com/santiagoroel/status/1836724689441566723?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The trip, if anything, seems to have boosted Yanowitz’s bullishness on Asia’s crypto scene.&nbsp;



The “sheer number” of people using crypto in Asia is “hands down bigger than the United States,” Yanowitz said.&nbsp;



We wrote about the newest stablecoin, a yield-bearing stablecoin from BitGo, in Thursday’s edition, and it’s something that Yanowitz has his eye on too.&nbsp;



“So I think actually we&#8217;re gonna see some really fun stablecoin competition for the first time in years,” Yanowitz noted, specifically citing the entrance of yield-bearing stablecoins.&nbsp;



And Asian crypto exchanges are really benefiting, the two noted. The US has Coinbase and Kraken, but Asian exchanges like Bybit outshine them. Yanowitz noted that Bybit is set to rake in $3 billion in profit this year.&nbsp;



To put that number in perspective: Coinbase <a href="https://investor.coinbase.com/news/news-details/2024/Coinbase-Releases-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Shareholder-Letter/default.aspx">reported</a> a whopping $3.1 billion in revenue last year with only $95 million of profit.&nbsp;



And now you know.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdh8Ll0rDqogShOtv23PoQV7rtlpeyKAbueJl00iTl2Dg_w0Mz8VTK9OGg-ue10LWZ-eeDFl6tSw1qzpSdWJ2JH42vxxgLSUg1WCZ_HUSo9nF3lthlqbtxpYbd3E76T1o58fpNMMvdZxKpIB65PivRDcVOg?key=Srv4a44tNC5g64zZ3IJ8tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">70% of USDT transfers on Tron are worth $1,000 or less, and 93% are $10,000 and under</figcaption></figure>



As was pointed out in today’s Empire, Tron is considered to be super-popular in Asia.&nbsp;



So much so that Tron is second only to Ethereum for user fees <a href="https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/metrics/fees?v=YjZlY2M0OTMxZmU1MDhjY2ZhYzU3ZTYw">spent</a>, having raked in $1.29 billion this year compared to $1.86 billion. Solana users have, meanwhile, paid less than $330 million.



Tether is Tron’s secret to success. On Ethereum, most fees <a href="https://ultrasound.money/">come</a> from apps: DEXs, aggregators and swap protocols like Uniswap, MetaMask and 1inch, as well as Telegram trading bots like BananaGun and Maestro.&nbsp;



Over the past 30 days, USDT and USDC together contributed only 7.5% of the total fees burned on Ethereum mainnet, half that of Uniswap.



Tron onchain activity, meanwhile, is overwhelmingly USDT transfers. 94% of all smart contract calls on the network right now are to Tether — a number that’s been steady in the past few years — with the bulk of the rest going to token launchpads.



All those calls have translated to over 2 million USDT transfers per day, equaling anywhere from around $5 billion volume to almost $18 billion.



It’s hard to say whether all that activity is truly coming out of Asia specifically. I have a theory: that users in countries experiencing rampant inflation, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-report-market-capitalization">particularly Nigeria</a>, could be contributing just as much.&nbsp;



The chart above plots the number of USDT transfers on Tron by the hour over the past week. Notice that USDT activity is at its highest at midday UTC — 1 pm in Nigeria, prime foot-traffic hours for stores and sellers — and at its lowest at midnight UTC, or 1 am local time.



You can find the same chart, but also mapping Singapore and New York local times, <a href="https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/19484908/">here</a>. Just click the swatches at the top to toggle the time zones to see they don’t align so neatly.



— David Canellis and Katherine Ross



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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A ‘speculative appetite’ may push memecoins higher: GSR

The lawsuit launched by Consensys against the Securities and Exchange Commission and SEC Chair Gary Gensler was dismissed in a Texas court on Thursday night.&nbsp;



The Consensys suit was originally filed in April and contained some bombshells including the allegation that the SEC had opened an investigation into Ethereum and that the regulator had issued the company behind MetaMask a Wells notice.&nbsp;



“On April 10, 2024, the SEC staff sent <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/consensys">Consensys</a> a ‘Wells Notice’ stating its intent to imminently recommend that the Commission bring an enforcement action against Consensys for violating the federal securities laws through its MetaMask Swaps and MetaMask Staking products,” the April filing said.



The notice gave the company a heads-up that the SEC had concluded an investigation and was mulling a lawsuit, but it didn’t necessarily mean that the regulator would file a suit.&nbsp;



Though the SEC has, since the April filing, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-lawsuit-against-consensys-securities">filed its own lawsuit against Consensys</a>. The regulator targeted MetaMask Swaps, and claimed that Lido and Rocket Pool are unregistered securities.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-has-it-in-for-consensys">The SEC still has it in for Consensys</a>



Judge Reed O’Connor noted that in his decision on Thursday as he dismissed the claims about <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/metamask">MetaMask</a>’s offerings.



“Similarly, the enforcement actions do not constitute final agency actions,” he wrote. “The Notice neither marks the consummation of the agency’s—i.e., <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/securities">SEC</a>’s— decision making process nor establishes Plaintiff’s legal rights or obligations.”



The claims <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/consensys-files-lawsuit-against-sec">around ETH brought by Consensys</a> were dismissed as moot — unsurprising given that the SEC announced it was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-drops-ethereum-consensys-investigation">dropping its investigation into ETH</a> earlier this summer right as it gave the ether ETFs the green light.&nbsp;



“Unfortunately, the Texas court today dismissed our lawsuit on procedural grounds without looking at the merits of our claims against the SEC,” Consensys said in a statement. “The Texas court today recognized that the SEC already gave Consensys the relief it sought on that critical issue for the Ethereum ecosystem.&nbsp;



“Outside of court, we have also seen signs of what could be a momentous step change in Washington’s sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and digital assets during a crucial period for US politics. We are on the right path, but must remain vigilant. Consensys is resolved to keep fighting for the rights of blockchain developers in the US as we contest the SEC&#8217;s action in Brooklyn.”



The SEC didn’t immediately return a request for comment.



Updated September 19, 2024 at 5:56 pm ET: Added statement from Consensys.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Texas court dismisses Consensys lawsuit against SEC

Ben Strack

Bitcoin has risen roughly 6% since the Federal Reserve revealed its first interest rate reduction in more than four years.



Industry watchers say that while the rate cut has so far proved to be a short-term catalyst for crypto, the longer-term economic outlook remains uncertain.



Bitcoin stood at roughly $63,600 at 2 pm ET Thursday — up from $60,000 24 hours prior.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-interest-rate-cut">Powell pitches 50 bps rate cut to support ‘strength of the economy and the labor market’</a>



Lower interest rates generally drive more investment into riskier assets like crypto, due in part to the diminished returns from traditional investment vehicles, noted Bybit institutional head Chris Aruliah.



“However, the broader global economic slowdown stipulated by softer economic indicators and geopolitical complexities is tempering investor sentiment,” he said in a statement.&nbsp;



While the rate cut offered a “short-term boost” to crypto markets, Aruliah added, “it is crucial to remain vigilant regarding the potential challenges posed by economic uncertainty and market fluctuations.”



Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, offered a similar warning.



The cut is favorable for equity markets and offers a “risk-on signal” for traders in the short term, he explained. It could even push BTC closer to its all-time high (above $73,000, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-all-time-high">reached in March</a>).



But the move, as some indicated prior, could be seen as an “emergency measure” that suggests the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/federal-reserve">Fed</a> “misjudged the optimal timing for easing,” Lienkha added.&nbsp;



“Over the next three months, it will become clearer whether the Fed can guide the economy toward a soft landing and avoid a recession in this cycle.”



Wednesday’s cut was likely just the first of several expected rate reductions in the coming months.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Fed Chair <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/jerome-powell">Jerome Powell</a> said at yesterday’s press conference that the Fed is “not on any pre-set course,” adding that rate decisions would be made meeting by meeting based on evolving economic data.



The US central bank “has a lot going for it” in terms of averting a deep recession, said FalconX research head David Lawant.&nbsp;



“This cooldown commences from a comparatively elevated interest rate baseline, household balance sheets appear relatively robust, and inflation generally seems to be trending in the right direction,” Lawant added. “Nevertheless, unforeseen shocks should never be ruled out.”



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-expectations-ahead-of-rate-decision">Observers had debated</a> whether the Fed’s cut would be sized at 25bps or 50bps. CME Group’s FedWatch tool had pegged the probability of the latter at 55% in the hours leading up to the decision.&nbsp;



&#8220;The Fed has given the market what it was looking for with the bigger 50-basis point rate cut,” LMAX group market strategist Joel Kruger said in an email. “Our concern from here will be the market’s ability to continue to feel good about buying risk assets on future accommodative Fed gestures now that the accommodation has been priced to this extent.”



A modified version of this article first appeared in the daily On the Margin newsletter. Subscribe <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">here</a> so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter</a>.



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Bitcoin is up 6% since the Fed rate cut. What’s next?

Felix Jauvin

Casey Wagner

Today, enjoy the On the Margin newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter</a>.



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Welcome to the On the Margin Newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Felix shares his takeaways from yesterday’s Fed cut, and the FOMC’s future economic/rate projections.</li>



<li>A former president walks into a bar and buys burgers…with bitcoin. Big deal, or no?</li>



<li>What analysts and execs are saying about the latest 50bps rate cut, and a look at what to watch for next.</li>
</ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Digging deeper into yesterday’s FOMC meeting</h2>



And so concludes the most uncertain Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the past decade. Going into the meeting, implied probabilities were evenly split between the Fed going for a cut of 25 basis points and 50bps.&nbsp;



As it turned out, the Fed went for a 50bps reduction with a 10-1 vote. The one dissenting vote, from Governor Michelle Bowman, was the first governor dissent since 2011. Considering Fed president speeches right before the blackout period, I would have expected more dissent, as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-fluctuates-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision">many were talking up going for 25bps</a>.&nbsp;



The one thing we do know, however, is that Powell gets what he wants and he is a pro at consensus building. So 50bps it is, for the first rate cut since March 2020.&nbsp;



Setting aside the rate decision, we also received the quarterly update on the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that includes its economist forecasts and projection of the federal funds rate.



Let’s dig into the economic forecast first:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdUN1VZIAUiigh7AzjObaZaoLEWCspwBAPSAm5s-zeAUIjepqBbPLF342n9j33B4L-Uz9znyXVHZjTdt1Gr3gVcscAmImEbcrmQVerf6-8fpKNUhPsOayd6V9mtVotav1hcte083_7-P5i-b8br6yMT4r8B?key=te8l-ycZANhbPLbcMR32_Q" alt=""/></figure>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The FOMC revised its end-of-year forecast for the unemployment rate (UR) from 4% to 4.4%, expecting it to remain flat in 2025 before decreasing in 2026. Considering we are already at 4.2%, and it was at 4.3% just a month ago, I find this forecast to be a bit complacent and optimistic. The UR tends to trend and has high momentum, so when it starts going it tends to continue higher. To think it will just go up a couple of basis points from here seems unlikely. But similar to the June SEP, during which they forecasted 4%, the FOMC could be setting itself up for further easing given the committee has said they don’t welcome further labor market weakness. This could be viewed as the strike price of the Fed put, in which any surprise uptick in the UR will lead to further ratcheting up of easing. </li>



<li>I find the lack of change on the Fed’s GDP forecast surprising. To think we will just sit at 2% for the next four years is simply ridiculous. I would view this as the FOMC just not having a clear read on economic growth from here.</li>
</ul>



That uncertainty around the path from here on out is also reflected in the FOMC’s dot plot forecast of future interest rates:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf41idT6YXGyizM2l3YIG5O3n5AoEvpaXSkLTfPyGKc49sQETQ1ALgiNnvHHxua4dZHVsPx0W7c6JuhLRWwIi4keaEC17fNZ-LVzMzSuqrxWrjmFB8PdUMGsHDiD59hc-w63NmnCyMCc9BUaBHIK_G_dys?key=te8l-ycZANhbPLbcMR32_Q" alt=""/></figure>



The dispersion in views of where the federal funds rate will be is huge, and that dispersion gets wider as we get further into the future.&nbsp;



Some FOMC members see the funds rate netting out around 3% in 2025 — what many see as the post-pandemic neutral rate. However, others actually view us to be below that neutral rate, which could imply an accommodative monetary policy.



Into the more distant future, the FOMC expects us to settle somewhere between a range of 2.5% and 3.75%.



Overall, yesterday’s meeting emphasizes a few things:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>The FOMC does not welcome any further weakness in the labor market. Considering where inflation stands, it is ready and willing to go big on easing if need be to ensure this occurs.</li>



<li>The committee is highly uncertain about the medium-term outlook, and there is a large dispersion in economist forecasts with respect to where the economy goes from here. </li>



<li>The FOMC’s trajectory of cuts is less aggressive than what the market has priced in, although not by as much as some had thought. </li>
</ol>



— Felix Jauvin



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">49</h3>



The number of days until the next FOMC meeting, set for Nov. 7.



Yes, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-interest-rate-cut-50-bps">50bps reduction happened just 24 hours ago</a>. But it’s always good to keep looking ahead, right? The countdown is especially relevant given the Fed is expected to cut interest rates again this year.&nbsp;



Committee member projections published Wednesday show the median interest rate target by the end of 2024 falling in the 4.25%-4.5% range — 50bps lower than the current level.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The BTC transaction heard ’round the world (or at least Crypto Twitter)</h2>



Stopping into an NYC bar on a Thursday night is hardly groundbreaking. But Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump turned it into a historic event when he made a purchase using bitcoin at crypto hotspot PubKey.



PubKey — a so-called “bitcoin-themed bar” in Greenwich Village (they have a live ticker displaying BTC’s price and a sign proclaiming “central bank digital currencies enslave”) — received the first payment made in bitcoin by a former US president (and his aides).&nbsp;



Trump paid roughly $950 in bitcoin for a round of burgers and diet cokes. The transaction was largely hands-off for Trump, as in he didn’t appear to be the one holding his devices. See <a href="https://x.com/LJMoynihan/status/1836525367970193630">here</a> for a video.&nbsp;



There was some confusion as to why the transaction seemed to take longer than normal. The delay was caused by the many camera flashes creating a glare on the screen, plus the invoice having been left open for a while in preparation for Trump’s arrival, <a href="https://x.com/willcole/status/1836613046879289462">according</a> to Will Cole, head of product at bitcoin payments company Zaprite.&nbsp;



Regardless of whether or not Trump actually knew how to pay in bitcoin (or if he even cared about the transaction in the first place) seemed irrelevant to his bitcoin-maxi fans. Last night’s event was largely hailed on Crypto Twitter as a massive success and turning point for an industry that has felt misunderstood and targeted by the government and public.&nbsp;



We are 47 days out from the election, so we will have to see if Trump releases a formal crypto policy plan or shares plans to appoint crypto-focused cabinet members.&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts, execs digest the Fed rate cut&nbsp;</h2>



We wrote about the Fed rate cut <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-interest-rate-cut">moments after it happened yesterday,</a> and Felix gave valuable additional insight above.&nbsp;



But how are industry analysts and executives digesting the move? The consensus seems to be: We must keep an eye on what has so far been a tailwind for crypto, as the longer term economic outlook remains uncertain.



Bitcoin has jumped about 6% since the FOMC revealed the 50bps cut — going from about $60,000 at 2 pm ET yesterday to roughly $63,600 just 24 hours later.&nbsp;



As Bybit’s Chris Aruliah pointed out: Lower interest rates generally drive more investment into riskier assets like crypto, due in part to the diminished returns from traditional investment vehicles.



“However, the broader global economic slowdown stipulated by softer economic indicators and geopolitical complexities is tempering investor sentiment,” he said in a statement.&nbsp;



While the rate cut offered a “short-term boost” to crypto markets, Aruliah added, “it is crucial to remain vigilant regarding the potential challenges posed by economic uncertainty and market fluctuations.”



Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, gave a similar warning.



The cut is favorable for equity markets and offers a “risk-on signal” for traders in the short term, he explained. It could even push BTC closer to its all-time high (above $73,000, reached <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-all-time-high">in March</a>).



But the move, as some indicated prior, could be seen as an “emergency measure” that suggests the Fed “misjudged the optimal timing for easing,” Lienkha added.&nbsp;



“Over the next three months, it will become clearer whether the Fed can guide the economy toward a soft landing and avoid a recession in this cycle.”



To that point, yesterday was likely just the first of several expected cuts.&nbsp;



Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at yesterday’s presser that the Fed is “not on any pre-set course,” adding that rate decisions would be made meeting by meeting based on evolving economic data.



The US central bank “has a lot going for it” in terms of averting a deep recession, said FalconX research head David Lawant.&nbsp;



“This cooldown commences from a comparatively elevated interest rate baseline, household balance sheets appear relatively robust, and inflation generally seems to be trending in the right direction,” Lawant added. “Nevertheless, unforeseen shocks should never be ruled out.”



There’s a presidential election coming up too, of course, slated for the same week as the next FOMC meeting. That should make for a fascinating few days for journalists like us and readers like you.&nbsp;



— Ben Strack&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>BMO Capital Markets raised its 2024 year-end forecast for the S&amp;P 500 to 6,100 on Thursday. Brian Belski, the firm’s chief investment strategist, famously was one of the few analysts to correctly predict the 2023 stock market rally. </li>



<li>Two important central bank meetings were scheduled for Thursday. The Bank of England met this morning and opted to hold interest rates, which was expected. And later this evening, we will hear from the Bank of Japan. Analysts doubt the BOJ will raise rates today, but are eyeing an increase in December. </li>



<li>In yet another instance of a historic crypto payment, the state of Louisiana accepted its first payment over the Bitcoin Lightning network. It was a fine paid to the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. </li>
</ul>



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The Fed cut upshot and FOMC future projections

Jack Kubinec

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Roughly a year and a half after it debuted the Saga, Solana Mobile has unveiled details about its second Solana phone, the Seeker.&nbsp;



Slated for a 2025 release, the phone boasts a native wallet built in tandem with SolFlare that integrates with Solana Mobile’s secure seed vault and (it looks like) will be secured by a thumbprint. Other new features are typical phone things — a better display, camera, and battery life as well as an updated “dApp Store.”&nbsp;



But what Solana natives are bound to be even more excited about is the prospect of token airdrops.



If you’ll remember, airdrop hype was a key component in Solana’s first phone go-round. Critics <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRSMJGs0YMg">didn’t</a> love the Saga, and Solana Mobile <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-saga-phone-price-cut">cut its price by 40%</a> amid lackluster sales four months after launch.&nbsp;



But late last year, Solana Mobile suddenly <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-phones-sold-out">sold out of the phones</a>, and the Saga started reselling for <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/267991/solana-saga-phone-sells-for-5000-on-ebay-as-bonk-hype-continues">thousands</a> of dollars. This was caused by the success of the BONK memecoin, which was airdropped to the phones in amounts that became <a href="https://x.com/0xGumshoe/status/1737142716553634140">worth</a> hundreds of dollars during Solana’s bull run.



Solana Mobile seems to be leaning into airdrop hype in its early marketing campaign for the Seeker.



Every Solana Seeker comes with a Genesis Token NFT that can serve as a sort of verification for Solana OGs, Solana Mobile general manager Emmett Hollyer told me. This can help airdrop token liquidity go directly to the hands of authentic users, Hollyer added.



“The excitement we’ve seen already with the Chapter 2 Preorder Token suggests to us it will be a powerful force,” Hollyer concluded when asked whether airdrops will help drive the go-to-market for the Seeker. A <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-zk-compression-solana-data-storage">zk-compression</a> partnership announced with Helius will <a href="https://x.com/solanamobile/status/1836614443167551509">make</a> it easier and cheaper to auto-allocate airdrops to Seeker users, and an exclusive app with the memecoin platform Moonshot will <a href="https://x.com/solanamobile/status/1836614433943982537">let</a> memecoins be sent to other Seeker users.&nbsp;



The Seeker had already been pre-ordered over 140,000 times by the time the phone came out of stealth, Solana Mobile says. At $450 a pop, that’s over $63 million in revenue for Solana Mobile.



And despite a dearth of specifics, some Solana fans feel the phone’s price tag is well worth it.&nbsp;



“Just preordered another @solanamobile Seeker. If you&#8217;ve been here long enough, you know this phone will pay for itself,” one user wrote on X, adding in a reply that they had purchased three Seeker phones in total.



Months ago, I briefly messaged with an airdrop farmer who claimed to have purchased 40 of the new Solana phones — before basically anything was known about the Seeker.



Solana Mobile hopes that there will be other use cases for the phone, of course: Hollyer mentioned DePIN, DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and AI as app categories coming to the Seeker. I wouldn’t count on those being too earth-shattering because, as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethcc-2024-attendees-want-web3-apps">many in crypto have lamented</a>, apps that don’t heavily revolve around speculation on token prices are currently few and far between.&nbsp;



On the other hand, it’s notoriously hard to break into the mobile phone space, which is currently dominated by a handful of rich incumbents. By leveraging airdrops to sell phones, Solana Mobile may gin up enough revenue to build future phones that will be ready for, say, three to five years from now when Web3 apps are ready for prime time.&nbsp;



But for now, I’d be curious to know how many users will actually be making phone calls from their airdrop machines.



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Solana’s second phone is nearly here — and so are the airdrops

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">It’s ‘Gensler Fall’</h2>



Whatever the cost of innovation, Rari Capital has footed at least some of the bill.



Both it and Fei Protocol debuted in the aftermath of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/will-defi-summer-return">DeFi Summer</a> in 2020 — a precursor to the 2021 bull run. Yield-farming protocols had run wild, paying out hundreds of percent interest and, in many cases, driving token prices sky-high.



With so much token liquidity flowing into all sorts of pools and protocols, a tidal wave of new projects sought to enable new ways of generating yield.



Simultaneously, more centralized lending firms like Celsius, Nexo and BlockFi leveraged those same tools in their own offerings. That <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/13/celsius-pays-off-last-defi-loan-reclaims-nearly-200m-of-wrapped-bitcoin-from-compound/">entanglement</a> two years later contributed to a mess of settlements, bankruptcies and liquidations, both on and offchain, including for Celsius and BlockFi.



Rari Capital embodied DeFi Summer’s scrappy spirit. Even to the point that its founders were <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/rorymurray/2020/08/03/teen-crypto-entrepreneurs-may-be-the-real-adults-in-the-room/">teenagers</a> when it was built.



Rari’s lending pools were, in essence, tools intended to remove a lot of the grunt work and anxiety around yield-farming for the regular crypto user. The protocol ran algorithms to find corners of DeFi with the highest yields — such as Curve, Compound and Aave — and deployed the pooled capital appropriately, paying out interest.



The SEC claimed the tokens used by the protocol to manage pool positions represented interest in the pools themselves. Rari’s native governance token was also flagged as a security, so the SEC’s position is that the team should’ve registered the tokens and their offerings with the regulator before they were launched — as if it could’ve launched at all under that premise.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeq_Qjanc150zFK8xXqnniZxT1RYNVqDy6sb5Y2bzpFIZf888uCy0dOXfQIDJ5_vDIvZAs5-kaOv5Gs4jtEBIZDp5EyBr65AwJqFt7hE9MU2Avh5yf5Emz_xsMsMzhZcLV9F8QsSNIVngX4wlCtwjAeV2A_?key=eaikkoWSWNWvRNURqKlgdA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Rari and Fei altogether had $2.5 billion TVL at their peak in late 2021</figcaption></figure>



Much of the SEC’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/complaints/2024/comp-pr2024-138.pdf">complaint</a> also hinged on Rari Capital itself dogfooding its own protocol — maintaining Fuse pools and marketing the potential returns users would receive.&nbsp;



Although, the SEC alleged that “Rari Capital and its co-founders falsely told investors that the Earn pools would automatically and autonomously rebalance their crypto assets into the highest yield-generating opportunities available when, in reality, the rebalancing mechanism often required manual input, which Rari Capital sometimes failed to initiate.”



The agency further claimed that one-third of Earn users lost money due to network and protocol fees outweighing the yield. So, perhaps, the platform wasn’t perfect, but it was experimental and, even more critically, fairly early.



In any case, Rari Capital has already been through the wringer.&nbsp;



Two hacks, a class action lawsuit, a debilitating forced pool liquidation and the departure of a co-founder in the space of two years. Not to mention an ongoing <a href="https://unicourt.com/case/ca-la23-justin-yu-vs-rari-capital-infrastructure-llc-a-delaware-limited-liability-company-et-al-893105">lawsuit</a> with a former employee over allegedly unpaid vested tokens, with $2.4 million in damages sought.



We don’t know how much money the Rari team forked out as part of its settlement with the SEC.&nbsp;



But it joins at least a dozen crypto-related companies, individuals and entities who have settled cases with regulators and other parties in the past year including Uniswap Labs, eToro, Abra, Silvergate, FalconX, Genesis, OKX, ShapeShift, KuCoin, Coinlist, which altogether paid over $126 million. Binance also settled with the DOJ this past year for $4.2 billion.



There are additional penalties for Rari, particularly five-year officer and director bars for its co-founders.&nbsp;



Is all that just the cost of innovation? It sure looks like it. At a minimum, it’s become the cost of doing business in crypto — at least until the more landmark cases play out in court over the next year or two.&nbsp;



— David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Data Center</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>BTC and ETH have rallied around 6% apiece on the daily following the Fed rate cut and Trump’s bitcoin burger purchase. (BTC: $63,100; ETH: $2,450.)</li>



<li>Memecoin POPCAT leads the front <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/">page</a> with 35% gains, followed by SEI (26%), TAO (22%), TIA (20%) and SUI (17.5%).</li>



<li>Aave’s total ETH <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/aave?denomination=ETH">locked</a> is at its highest point August 2022: 7.96 million ETH, up from 4.4 million ETH at the start of the year.</li>



<li>Ethena USDe has shed <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoin/ethena-usde">almost</a> $1 billion supply since it peaked at over $3.6 billion in July.</li>



<li>Standard BTC transactions make up 97% of Bitcoin <a href="https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes">activity</a> right now.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Off to the races</h2>



Watch out, we have some new entrants to the stablecoin market.&nbsp;



BitGo announced Wednesday that it planned to launch USDS, a yield-bearing stablecoin backed by Treasury bills, in January of next year. There was also a <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/18/fintech-giant-revolut-said-to-be-planning-stablecoin/">report</a> that Revolut is plotting its own stablecoin venture, though they declined to comment.&nbsp;



The timing of the launches is interesting, given that we just talked about how successful stablecoins are right now. They’re sitting at a total market cap of $171 billion, slightly down over the past 30 days.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcAapG6FIqFgS2KDPUMLO5ukP0QN9vbnWKdiS4KY6FJZtVPopwWyo_07AVOyss4Bt-RM5nwrFWlmut0x56brgWKRocBe-50cUbgECRM_qTY5VrLcxMpPpJb0biw6wDRWpH7Bu9g6aTVnkcmoyt_QZ76-5NU?key=eaikkoWSWNWvRNURqKlgdA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: rwa.xyz</figcaption></figure>



So let’s talk about BitGo.&nbsp;



The press release shows some spice, with BitGo saying they plan to “challenge the existing stablecoin market dynamics, specifically targeting the dominance of single-issuers like Circle and Tether.”



“&#8230;USDS introduces a novel reward system that deploys up to 98% of earnings to participants who support the ecosystem. This approach ensures that all eligible institutions, exchanges, liquidity providers, and users are incentivized to support and grow the USDS network, fostering a more inclusive and balanced ecosystem,” the release continued.&nbsp;



To be clear, though, institutions would be the beneficiaries of the yield. But this hits on something Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures said <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-report-market-capitalization">last week</a>: “…I do think that the interest-bearing stablecoins will out-compete the ordinary ones at the margin with time.”



Tether and Circle are obviously the two heavyweights in the category — shown by the green and blue areas on the chart above — but the BitGo offering would change things slightly. Though, in such a crowded space, there’s no way to tell at this point just how much consumer appetite there is for another stablecoin.&nbsp;



And, if we’re continuing to compare, Tether isn’t US-based, though Circle just announced that it was moving its headquarters to New York as the firm eyes a public offering.&nbsp;



The BitGo New York Trust Company, which is registered under a state trust charter, would issue USDS. Circle’s able to issue USDC through money transmitting licenses while Tether is not regulated here.&nbsp;



There’s also PayPal’s stablecoin, which sits far below both USDT and USDC on the list, but is issued by New York firm Paxos.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">5/ USDS will publish its proof-of-reserves in real-time to <a href="https://t.co/QqUudhFRXn">https://t.co/QqUudhFRXn</a> where users can see the daily balances held on behalf of USDS token holders. In addition, USDS will conduct monthly audits and publish those results.&mdash; Matt Ballensweig (@mtballensweig) <a href="https://twitter.com/mtballensweig/status/1836433825435357519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Carter also noted last week that he wanted to take his stablecoin study to US lawmakers and push for them to issue stablecoin regulation. Partially due to the fact that, as we noted above, he said that most stablecoin issuers are wary of the SEC to offer interest-bearing stablecoins in the US.



“We have no control or insight into how [stablecoins issuers] operate. And so if you want them to be more legible and accountable, it&#8217;d be better if we have a favorable regulatory environment,” he said. “If you want us to really benefit from them, ask some rules so that stablecoin issuers can actually issue here with confidence.”



Bring it on, USDS. Let’s see how this race plays out.



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Works</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Germany’s Commerzbank will begin <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/19/commerzbank-to-offer-bitcoin-ether-trading-through-crypto-finance/">offering</a> bitcoin and ether trading through Crypto Finance.</li>



<li>The founder of Inception Capital disappeared before reappearing right as investors voted to wind down the fund, Fortune <a href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/09/19/inception-op-crypto-disappear-founder-china-vc-ackman/">reported</a>.</li>



<li>Binance CEO Richard Teng said that the exchange <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/binance-ceo-40percent-growth-in-institutional-corporate-investors.html">saw growth</a> in institutional and corporate investors this year.</li>



<li>Bernstein says <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/09/19/stablecoins-are-becoming-systemically-important-bernstein-says/?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=rss&amp;utm_campaign=headlines">stablecoins</a> are becoming “systematically important.”</li>



<li>Former president Donald Trump treated folks to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/donald-trump-buys-fans-burgers-and-pays-with-bitcoin-at-new-york-bar">burgers</a> at New York’s Bitcoin bar, Pubkey last night.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Riff</h2>



Q: How historic was Donald Trump’s bitcoin burger purchase?



If we’re just looking at it from the angle of ‘has this been done before,’ then it’s pretty historic.&nbsp;



But I’m ready to die on one hill: We still haven’t seen any actual policy plans. A strategic bitcoin reserve sounds great, but there’s a bit of <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/91175437/bitcoin-reserve-cynthia-lumis">doubt being shed</a> on the idea and it’s not wholly clear how it would be executed.&nbsp;



Burgers (unfortunately) don’t change a candidate’s thoughts on an issue like crypto. If we want something truly historic, then I’d rather have a presidential candidate lay out their plans to regulate crypto and ensure that the regulation-by-enforcement we’ve seen would come to an end.&nbsp;



In all fairness to the last point, Trump has said that he’d fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, which is something he could <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-gary-gensler-sec-post-election-outlook">potentially do</a>. We’re hearing crickets from the Harris camp, even as her donors <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=dems+unseat+lisa+kan+gary+gensler&amp;rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS1087US1087&amp;oq=dems+unseat+lisa+kan+gary+gensler&amp;gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORigATIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigAdIBCDgwMjlqMGo0qAIAsAIA&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8">allegedly call for the unseating</a> of both Gensler and FTC Chair Lina Khan.&nbsp;



Maybe I’m jaded, but one bitcoin burger doesn’t a crypto candidate make.&nbsp;



— Katherine Ross



Would’ve been much cooler if Trump actually signed the transaction himself. But he just stood there, watching QR codes being scanned. At least he watched.



Trump didn’t really have to understand what was happening. Had this been an early credit card transaction — via one of those clunky old <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_card_imprinter">machines</a> from the sixties — he probably would’ve had the same look of faint bewilderment.



That’s the cool part about technology. Most of the world will only ever have abstract understandings of how it all works. Bitcoin included.&nbsp;



Was it a cheap, pandering photo op? You could look at it like that.&nbsp;



But that anyone at all is still excited about BTC being used as money, over 14 years after the ill-fated Bitcoin Pizza purchase, is a win for crypto.



— David Canellis



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SEC settlements are becoming the cost of doing crypto business

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced a settlement Wednesday with crypto lending startup Rari Capital and its co-founders Jai Bhavnani, Jack Lipstone and David Lucid.&nbsp;



The settlements are subject to court approval but don’t disclose a financial sum.&nbsp;



The SEC claims that the co-founders “falsely told investors that the Earn pools would automatically and autonomously rebalance their crypto assets into the highest yield-generating opportunities available when, in reality, the rebalancing mechanism often required manual input, which Rari Capital sometimes failed to initiate.”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etoro-sec-settlement">eToro to cease most crypto offerings after SEC settlement</a>



Additionally, the project “misleadingly” claimed that investors would receive a higher annual percentage yield without disclosing fees that would eat into the initial yield.&nbsp;



“The SEC alleges that Rari Capital and its co-founders engaged in unregistered broker activity through their operation of the Fuse platform,” the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a> said Wednesday.



The founders and Rari Capital, without admitting or denying the investigation’s findings, settled with the SEC.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/a-match-made-in-defi-rari-capital-and-fei-protocol-merge-to-feirari">A match made in DeFi: Rari Capital and Fei Protocol merge to ‘FeiRari’</a>



They “consented to the entry of final judgments ordering various forms of relief, including permanent injunctions, conduct-based injunctions, civil penalties, disgorgement with prejudgment interest and equitable officer-and-director bars against the co-founders for a period of five years.” The court has not yet signed off on the settlements.&nbsp;



Rari also agreed to a cease-and-desist from the SEC regarding the broker registration, with the caveat that the team neither admitted to nor denied the findings.



The protocol, alongside Fei Capital (the two merged back in 2021), was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hacked-crypto-platform-offers-no-questions-asked-10m-bounty-for-stolen-funds">exploited for $80 million two years ago</a>. Fei offered a $10 million bounty to retrieve the assets taken by the hackers.&nbsp;&nbsp;



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DeFi startup Rari Capital settles with the SEC 

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Welcome to the On the Margin Newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack and Casey Wagner. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut just arrived. Ben shares an initial breakdown.</li>



<li>Two US Congressmen say regulators have “misapplied” securities laws to airdrops. Casey points out legal precedent on the topic.</li>



<li>House members discussed the SEC’s “politicization” of crypto regulation. The hearing was more or less what you’d expect. </li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The rate cut is in</h2>



After weeks (if not months) of anticipation, the Federal Reserve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-interest-rate-cut-50-bps">reduced interest rates</a> by 50 basis points Wednesday.



Bitcoin’s price rose on the news.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Fed Chair Jerome Powell <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/powell-confirms-september-rate-cut">had made it clear</a> the central bank intended to reduce rates, noting last month: “The time has come for policy to adjust.”



In a statement this afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said the 50bps cut came “in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.”



Powell called the economy “strong overall” just moments ago, noting that the labor market has “cooled from its formerly overheated state.” Inflation, meanwhile, has “eased substantially,” he added — dropping from its 7% peak to about 2.2%, as of August. “This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance,” the Fed Chair said during a post-release presser.&nbsp;



Ahead of the expected rate reduction from its previous 5.25%-5.50% range, many debated whether the cut <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-fluctuates-ahead-of-fed-rate-decision">would amount to 25bps or 50bps</a>.



CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 55% probability of a 50bps cut a few hours before the FOMC’s statement.&nbsp;



Some industry analysts and executives had said that while investors could view a 25bps cut as a normal measure, a 50bps cut could spur fears of a recession and bring on volatility.&nbsp;



“The Fed has only cut 50bps in a non-emergency situation once in the past 40 years,” Astoria Portfolio Advisors founder John Davi wrote in a blog <a href="https://www.astoriaadvisors.com/single-post/cio-thoughts-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-a-50bps-cut-would-imply-a-recession-and-potentially-a-s">post</a> earlier this week. “In our view, the Fed would be making a mistake as it would imply the economy is much weaker than currently suggested.”



The Fed opted for the 50bps cut anyway.



Feel free to interpret the Fed’s decision how you will. The broader market will do the same.



Bitcoin’s price — at about $60,000 just before 2 pm ET — saw a bump above $60,700 in the minutes following the rate cut announcement. BTC rose to above $61,100 after Powell started speaking at 2:30 before retreating below $61,000 as we were about ready to publish this newsletter.



Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, said earlier today that “some degree of market re-pricing is inevitable, regardless of the decision” given the differing cut expectations.



The FOMC meeting countdown clock now restarts, as segment observers expect the Fed to ultimately cut rates further during sessions slated for Nov. 7 and Dec. 18.&nbsp;&nbsp;



A number of analysts had said the market was pricing in a total of 100bps of rate reductions (including Wednesday’s cut) by the end of the year. New projections released Wednesday show committee members have a median expectation of rates falling in the 4.25%-4.5% range (down from the current 4.75%-5.0% range) by the end of the year.



“We are not on any pre-set course,” Powell said today. “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”&nbsp;



The long-term effects of this rate cut (and potential others to come) are multifaceted.&nbsp;



Erald Ghoos, general manager of Europe at crypto exchange OKX, noted before the rate decision that an increase in USD liquidity could lead to more capital flowing into various asset classes, including crypto.



“However, it&#8217;s crucial to consider that crypto markets are influenced by a complex interplay of factors beyond just monetary policy, including whether or not we’re headed into a recession, which would be bearish for digital assets overall,” Ghoos added.



Along with the FOMC meetings, investors best keep an eye on geopolitical tensions and the US election as other potential crypto (and traditional) market movers.&nbsp;



In other words, the relatively quiet summer is over.&nbsp;



— Ben Strack



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">$1.95 million&nbsp;</h3>



The amount of money accounting firm Prager Metis agreed to pay the SEC to resolve two separate actions alleging misconduct.&nbsp;



In one action, the SEC claims Prager Metis “misrepresented its compliance with auditing standards regarding FTX” when the firm issued two audits for the now-defunct crypto exchange. Prager has neither confirmed nor denied the allegations.&nbsp;



“Because Prager’s audits of FTX were conducted without due care, for example, FTX investors lacked crucial protections when making their investment decisions,” Gurbir Grewal, director of the SEC&#8217;s Division of Enforcement, said in a statement.&nbsp;



Curiously, these allegedly faulty audits did not come up during former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial last year.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gensler’s two-week countdown begins</h2>



The deadline to pass a federal budget is looming. But Congressional leaders — at least in the House — are still making time to prioritize digital asset regulation.&nbsp;



Reps. Tom Emmer and Patrick McHenry have penned a <a href="https://emmer.house.gov/_cache/files/5/0/50176829-99c6-40ec-87dd-96421f659fd0/58E2521AD98881EC6DB7696DEC1C2A6C.congressionalletter.sec.9.17.24.pdf">letter</a> to SEC Chair Gary Gensler, expressing concern that regulators have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/reps-ask-sec-for-clarity-securities-airdrops">“misapplied” securities laws to airdrops</a>, a technology, they say, that plays a “crucial role in the development of a decentralized blockchain system.”&nbsp;



Airdrops, which Emmer and McHenry define as digital assets distributed to early users of certain protocols, have, like many parts of the crypto industry, occupied a regulatory gray area in recent years.&nbsp;



There’s not a lot of legal precedent to rely on, but here are two cases which have dealt with the question of airdrops and their status as securities:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>In 2018, the SEC sued Tomahawk Exploration over its initial coin offering. Even though the ICO tokens were distributed for “free,” like airdrops, regulators said these assets were still securities since they created a public trading market. Airdrops are normally given to early community members or others who perform menial tasks (such as downloading an app or promoting a project), the SEC added. But even so, there does not need to be a transfer of money to constitute a “sale.”  </li>



<li>In an ongoing case brought earlier this year, crypto advocacy group the DeFi Education Fund and Texas-based clothing company Beba Collective sued the SEC. It was a preemptive measure of sorts; the plaintiffs are trying to get a court to rule that Beba’s airdropped tokens are not securities even though there hasn’t yet been an enforcement action. The next deadline in the case is coming up next month when DEF and Beba will have to file their opposition to the SEC’s motion to dismiss the case. </li>
</ol>



Emmer and McHenry say airdrops are no different from airline miles or credit card points, which are often gifted to consumers. They asked the SEC to respond to their inquiry by the end of the month.



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SEC in the hot seat (again)</h2>



In yet another crypto-related move by the House, members of the Financial Services Digital Asset Subcommittee gathered today to discuss the SEC’s “politicization” of digital asset regulation.&nbsp;



The hearing was more or less what you’d expect.&nbsp;



To wit: Most Republicans expressed frustration with how the SEC handles digital assets and most Democrats said the industry is simply uncooperative. There were some deviations from party lines, though. New York Dem Ritchie Torres, for example, emerged as a crypto advocate on the left.&nbsp;



“Did the SEC <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lawmakers-frustrated-with-sec-crypto-approach">invent the term out of thin air</a>?” Torres asked during the hearing, referring to the asset class of “digital asset securities,” which the SEC seems to have recently created.&nbsp;



Subcommittee Chair French Hill, R-Ark., said the SEC’s refusal to adjust current policies to better fit the digital asset ecosystem is unacceptable.&nbsp;



Robinhood Market’s CLO Dan Gallagher, a witness on Wednesday, agreed.&nbsp;



Gallagher testified that Robinhood attempted to “come in and register” for the SEC’s coveted special purpose broker-dealer license, but found the requirements to be at odds with how crypto works.&nbsp;



“We recommended modifications that would make it work, and we were submitting to full regulation by the commission,” Gallagher testified on Wednesday. “It was a fruitful process. It was very cordial with the SEC staff until about early 2023, when we got a very perfunctory note from the chairman&#8217;s office telling us that there&#8217;s no reason to talk anymore.”&nbsp;



Gallagher did not specify what changes Robinhood recommended.&nbsp;



Consider today’s mostly uneventful hearing a warm-up for the big event next week, when all five SEC Commissioners will face the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. Buckle up!



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Another $187 million entered US-listed spot bitcoin funds on Tuesday, Farside Investors <a href="https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/">data</a> shows — marking four straight days of net inflows. Total net money moving into the ETF segment totals $17.5 billion a little over eight months since the launches. </li>



<li>BlackRock published a <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/literature/whitepaper/bitcoin-a-unique-diversifier.pdf">report</a> called “Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier.” Likely drivers of long-term bitcoin adoption are “the intensity of concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, US fiscal sustainability and US political stability,” according to company executives. Rather than classifying bitcoin as a risk-on or risk-off asset, BTC’s long-term return drivers are “fundamentally uncorrelated with other sources of portfolio returns,” they wrote.  </li>



<li>Non-custodial exchange TrueX — set to use stablecoin PayPal USD as the default settlement currency — exited from stealth Wednesday. Vishal Gupta, Coinbase’s former head of exchange, and Patrick McCreary, an ex-senior staff engineer at the crypto exchange, founded the new firm.</li>



<li>WisdomTree unveiled the “direct-to-business counterpart” to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockchain-wisdomtree-app">“blockchain-enabled” consumer app it launched</a> last year. The new platform is designed to unlock tokenized real-world asset access to more users, enabling them over time to interact with any WisdomTree-issued token across wallets and supported blockchains.</li>
</ul>



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Powell pitches 50 bps rate cut to support ‘strength of the economy and the labor market’

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday — a divergence from some industry watchers who expected a more conservative initial cut.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Fed Chair Jerome Powell had <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/powell-confirms-september-rate-cut">made it clear the central bank intended to reduce rates</a>, noting last month: “The time has come for policy to adjust.”



In a statement this afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said the decision came “in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.”



“The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward [2%], and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the committee noted. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”



Ahead of the expected rate reduction from its previous 5.25%-5.50% range, the question remained whether the cut would amount to 25bps or 50bps.



CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 55% probability of a 50bps cut a couple hours before the FOMC’s statement.&nbsp;



Some industry watchers and executives had said that while investors could view a 25bps cut as a normal measure, a 50bps cut could spur fears of a recession and bring on volatility.&nbsp;



“The Fed has only cut 50bps in a non-emergency situation once in the past 40 years,” Astoria Portfolio Advisors founder John Davi wrote in a blog <a href="https://www.astoriaadvisors.com/single-post/cio-thoughts-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-a-50bps-cut-would-imply-a-recession-and-potentially-a-s">post</a> earlier this week. “In our view, the Fed would be making a mistake as it would imply the economy is much weaker than currently suggested.”



Still, the Fed opted for the cut of 50bps.



Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, said in a statement earlier today that “some degree of market re-pricing is inevitable, regardless of the decision” given the differing cut expectations.



Bitcoin’s price — at about $60,000 just before 2 pm ET — initially saw a bump above $60,700 in the minutes following the rate cut announcement.&nbsp;



Many expect the Fed to cut at the FOMC’s upcoming meetings slated for Nov. 7 and Dec. 18. A number of analysts had said the market was pricing in a total of 100bps — including Wednesday’s cut — in rate reductions by the end of the year.



FOMC members’ median projection in June was 25bps of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Latest projections released Wednesday show committee members have a median expectation of rates falling in the 4.25%-4.5% range (down from the current 4.75%-5.0%) by the end of the year. One policy maker anticipates 75bps of additional rate cuts by the year’s end.



Powell was set to give remarks during a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.&nbsp;



“Beyond the initial headline cut … the market will focus on forward guidance and the rate path through 2024-2025,” Ostrovskis said. “Questions surrounding the strength of the labor market and reaction function will likely be asked during the Q&amp;A session.”



Casey Wagner contributed reporting.



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First Fed interest rate cut in 4 years sized at 50 bps

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No matter how crazy things get, Jupiter’s market share seems impenetrable for the time being.&nbsp;



Last week, the swap aggregator and Solana DeFi everything app had two of its programs closed by an unauthorized user who gained access to its private key used for program deployments.&nbsp;



User funds were safe, the engineer in charge of the programs <a href="https://x.com/defiracer/status/1835367370472452167">disclosed</a> on X, implying that he meant to make the program only upgradeable by multiple key signatures but didn’t get around to it in time. The programs have since been changed — they are now governed by a multisig that takes multiple keys to be opened. Having just one private key guarding programs with real users is a serious security mishap, and Jupiter is probably thanking its lucky stars that no funds were stolen.



But despite this, no one seemed to care much. One commenter chastised the Jupiter engineer for leaving the “keys in the ignition,” but otherwise, the oopsies was met with a collective shrug.&nbsp;



On one hand, you could point out how near misses happen all the time in DeFi, and the space moves far too quickly for the crypto world to take stock of seeming minutiae like this. But the non-incident also perhaps points to something that doesn’t get talked about as much: Jupiter’s seemingly-uncrossable moat in Solana DeFi.&nbsp;



Jupiter’s calling card is its swap function which algorithmically routes trades across various liquidity venues to execute swaps with the best possible prices for users. When I set up a test swap of PYUSD for JitoSOL, it first proposed to route the funds through Raydium then to Meteora and onto Orca before returning to my wallet. This product is widely-used in Solana DeFi, and it tends to outperform competitors. While writing this article, I set up a quick few different swaps on Jupiter and Phantom, and Jupiter gave me a better price every time.



Because of this product, Jupiter finds itself somewhat immune to controversy — for now. Around a month ago, Jupiter founder meow penned a mea culpa <a href="https://discord.com/channels/897540204506775583/903114583126974494/1271507281586159778">apologizing</a> for poor user experience with things like gas fee estimation, adding that the Jupiter felt “quite hurt” that their products weren’t performing as intended.



But despite it all, there seems to be little negative impact on Jupiter. Its native token has traded essentially in tandem with SOL over the past few months. The platform has risen to become the third-largest in Solana DeFi by TVL, and it’s seen the most inflows over the past week of any Solana protocol with over $50 million — despite two of its programs being compromised.



Unless a better competitor emerges, Jupiter just seems to have a pretty good thing going on at the moment (though for what it’s worth, I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-pump-dot-fun-memecoin">made a similar case for pump.fun</a>, which may finally be running out of steam). 



In the meantime, Jupiter is building out a host of other features as part of its utopian “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-jupiter-unified-markets-plan">grand unified marketplace</a>” vision. There’s a lot of benefit to having one killer product prop up other lines of business. Amazon famously used its web services to bankroll its online marketplace for many years.



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Solana’s top swap venue seems immune to criticism

Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle on Wednesday expressed frustration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s current approach to digital assets.&nbsp;



The House Financial Services Committee Digital Assets Subcommittee on Financial Technology and Inclusion convened Wednesday to discuss how crypto market participants are navigating the current regulatory landscape —&nbsp;and what additional clarity is needed.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/bXxufU9EYX4">hearing</a>, entitled “Dazed and Confused: Breaking Down the SEC’s Politicized Approach to Digital Assets,” featured legal experts and market participants as witnesses, including Robinhood Markets Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher and Teddy Fusaro, the president of Bitwise Asset Management.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Committee members were largely interested in discussing how the SEC defines “crypto asset securities,” a term that the agency made up, one Democratic representative claims.



“Did the SEC invent the term out of thin air?” Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., asked, somewhat rhetorically, when questioning Gallagher.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/rep-torres-sec-reconsider-regulation-by-enforcement">Rep. Torres asks SEC to reconsider ‘crusade against crypto’ in wake of Ripple</a>



Robinhood, Gallagher said, attempted to follow SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s instructions to “come in and register,” but found that the current structure for the special purpose broker dealer license the exchange sought was incompatible with digital assets.&nbsp;



“We recommended modifications that would make it work, and we were submitting to full regulation by the Commission,” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/bXxufU9EYX4">Gallagher</a> testified on Wednesday. “It was a fruitful process. It was very cordial with the SEC staff until about early 2023, when we got a very perfunctory note from the Chairman&#8217;s office telling us that there&#8217;s no reason to talk anymore.”&nbsp;



The SEC’s refusal to adjust its framework is not consistent with securities laws, Subcommittee Chair French Hill, R-Ark., asserted. In federal court, the SEC continues to have “legal face plants,” when trying to defend their stance that virtually all cryptocurrencies are securities, he added.&nbsp;



Not all Committee members feel the same, though, and despite some bipartisan cooperation, Wednesday’s hearing also highlighted <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/maxine-waters-cbdc-bill-anti-innovation-republicans">party disputes</a> that have existed around digital assets for years.&nbsp;



Why would the vast majority of companies who have faced enforcement actions from the SEC since 2021 have opted to settle and pay a collective $5.5 billion in penalties if they hadn’t done anything wrong, Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Cali., asked the witnesses.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fincen-hearing-crypto-illegal-financing">House hearing on FinCEN oversight turns into crypto debate</a>



Lee Reiners, a lecturing fellow at Duke University, responded by saying that he feels the SEC — under both former Chair Jay Clayton and current Chair Gensler — has overwhelmingly been in the right when bringing various enforcement actions against crypto players.&nbsp;



There has been “one notable partial loss,” Reiners said, when <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/judge-rules-ripple-xrp-not-security">Ripple partially won against the SEC</a> in 2023, but even this ruling has since been “repudiated by several other federal judges in that same federal district court.”&nbsp;



Rep. Sean Casten, D-IL, later expressed concern with how current legislative proposals do not sufficiently protect the investing public from fraud, as exemplified, he said, by the recently-announced World Liberty Financial project, which the Trump family has been promoting. 



The World Liberty team said they <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-family-defi-venture">would retain control of 20% of the token supply</a>, which, based on the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act — passed in the House in May — would mean the project is “decentralized and not subject to regulation,” Casten said.



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Rep. Torres: SEC invented ‘crypto asset security’ out of thin air

The vibes are off for Ethereum right now.&nbsp;



And it seems that <a href="https://x.com/moonpay/status/1836282139513602413">Vitalik Buterin singing</a> at Token2049 isn’t the bullish signal everyone’s looking for.



But it’s not Buterin’s fault given that Bitwise’s Matt Hougan <a href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/a-contrarian-bet-on-ethereum?utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8myxcJG_lpfITufcPu7eyKNK2h8zNEh5ABsX2gxZ5zgvBkUrweNJDM_98m_l6kz_DXzlrob25arL9ArwoopVCKLh8AGQ&amp;_hsmi=325026337&amp;utm_content=325026337&amp;utm_source=hs_email">penned</a> a note on ethereum ahead of the network creator taking the stage. Hougan pointed out that the ETH/BTC ratio hit its lowest level in three years. ETH has struggled with upward momentum in the past few quarters, unlike both bitcoin and solana.



“The vibes in the community are tough,” Hougan wrote.&nbsp;



It’s a fair, if somewhat unfortunate statement given that some believed the momentum around ETH could pick up after ETF approval earlier this year. Bitcoin received ETF approval earlier this year and then carved out all-time highs just a few months later, and ETH tracked the momentum like a loyal dog.&nbsp;



But no such move manifested for ETH when its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nine-us-spot-eth-etfs-live-post-approval">own ETFs were launched</a>.&nbsp;



“A key factor is the timing of Ethereum ETFs, which launched during the summer — a typically slower period for both the crypto and ETF markets,” Federico Brokate of 21Shares told Blockworks. “This is also partly due to Ethereum having a less straightforward narrative compared to Bitcoin, which is widely regarded as ‘digital gold.’”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/21shares-us-crypto-etf-adoption-outlook">21Shares exec talks US crypto ETF adoption, where we go from here</a>



Hougan said that there are a few other reasons as well: the election risk, competitors and tokenomics.&nbsp;



“While Bitcoin has largely passed regulatory scrutiny — even [Securities and Exchange Commission] Chair Gary Gensler admits it&#8217;s not a security — Ethereum has not. The SEC appears to think that staked ETH is a security, and the agency has significant worries about the broader DeFi ecosystem that drives much of Ethereum’s value. If Harris wins and continues the Biden administration’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kamala-harris-crypto-policy-reset-outlook">skeptical posture toward crypto</a>, Ethereum could face challenges,” he added.



ETH has, in a legal sense, notched a few wins. The SEC <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-has-it-in-for-consensys">dismissed its investigation</a> into ethereum over the summer. And, more recently, the eToro settlement gave some indication into the SEC’s current thought process.



It seems as if the SEC is dismissing any potential action against ETH by allowing the US-based trading platform to continue offering ether to customers. Keep in mind that the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etoro-sec-settlement">settlement cut quite a few of its offerings</a>.



Neither <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/matt-hougan">Hougan</a> nor Brokate are too concerned about the potential death of Ethereum. They’re both cautiously optimistic that it’ll bounce back and that the “price of ether will ultimately reflect the growing adoption of its various use cases,” Brokate said.



“There are several positive catalysts for <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a>. Investor education will be key to driving further adoption. As Ethereum’s narrative around real-world assets, tokenization and decentralized finance becomes better understood by both retail and institutional investors, demand is expected to grow. Ethereum’s role as a technological innovator is also gaining traction, particularly among those with a deeper understanding of blockchain technology,” he continued.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eth-fundamentals-bearish-bullish">ETH’s fundamentals remain ‘strong:’ Analyst</a>



Hougan pointed to Polymarket’s dependence on ETH — even though Polymarket <a href="https://polygon.technology/blog/project-spotlight-polymarket-the-biggest-decentralized-prediction-market-in-blockchain">runs on</a> Polygon, it “ultimately settles on Ethereum.” There’s also the fact that over half of all stablecoins are issued on Ethereum, according to <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/stablecoins">data</a> from rwa.xyz.



To Hougan, Ethereum is the “Microsoft of blockchains.” It is perhaps an apt comparison given that Microsoft is one of the largest tech giants, and yet isn’t seen as particularly sexy. Remember all of the hype around the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) a few years ago? Microsoft was notably left out. Though that never meant it was not competitive in its industry.&nbsp;



“Ethereum remains a foundational technology platform with immense potential. Although it may lag behind Bitcoin in terms of brand recognition, its role in decentralized finance, tokenization and as a programmable blockchain makes it a crucial part of the future digital economy,” Brokate explained.&nbsp;



“Ethereum represents a bet on blockchain innovation, which will only grow in importance as tokenized assets and decentralized financial applications continue to expand. While short-term bearishness may persist, the long-term outlook for Ethereum remains highly positive.”



Perhaps, like Microsoft, Ethereum just needs some time to fully blossom in the eyes of adopters and investors. With FAANG’s fall from grace, Microsoft finally got a seat at the table in the new grouping of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/investing/magnificent-7-stocks">Magnificent 7</a>.



“Despite these short-term headwinds, Ethereum’s fundamentals remain strong. The number of developers joining the Ethereum ecosystem is higher than ever, with more projects launching on the network and an expanding range of use cases. These developments should provide solid support for ETH in the long term,” Brokate said.



A modified version of this article first appeared in the daily Empire newsletter. Subscribe <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">here</a> so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.



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The ETH vibes are ‘tough,’ Bitwise CIO says

Just hours away from the Federal Reserve’s expected rate reduction from its current 5.25%-5.50% range, the question remains whether the cut will amount to 25 basis points or 50bps.



The Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/fomc">FOMC</a>) is set to release a statement at 2 pm ET before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm ET.&nbsp;&nbsp;



One of the final data points to look at before the central bank’s decision was US retail sales for August.&nbsp;



The Census Bureau’s report Tuesday morning showed these sales slightly rose last month — amounting to a month-over-month increase of 0.1%. The increase was a bit unexpected, as economists polled by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-august-2024-09-17/">Reuters</a> had estimated a 0.2% decline.



21Shares research analyst Leena ElDeeb noted the retail sales “beating expectations” were well-received by the market, “alleviating recession fears for now.”



Bitcoin’s price rose toward $61,000 by Tuesday afternoon — a level nearly 5% higher than 24 hours prior. BTC dropped closer to the $59,000 level early Wednesday before again increasing to about $59,800 at 9:30 am ET.



Off The Chain Capital CEO Brian Dixon told Blockworks the better-than-expected retail sales numbers could pressure the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/federal-reserve">Fed</a> to cut rates by only 25bps, “as the economy is still somewhat strong but clearly showing signs of slowing.”&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-expectations-ahead-of-rate-decision">What to watch for heading into the next Fed rate decision</a>



The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 50bps stood at 59% at 9:30 am ET Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.



This chance of a 50bps cut has fluctuated in recent days after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-rate-decision-countdown">jumping markedly higher</a> late last week. Before that, the markets viewed a 25bps cut as more likely.



A 50bps cut could spark investor fears of a recession and potentially increase volatility, some <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/september-events-that-could-move-markets">industry analysts and executives have noted</a>.



“I think the overall data picture shows that the Fed is probably thinking that it might be better to gradually taper down rates rather than initiate cuts in a big way,” Dixon added.



Such a gradual drop would go against the wishes of three Democratic senators who urged the Fed (in a Monday <a href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/warren_hickenlooper_whitehouse_letter_to_fed_re_september_rate_cut.pdf">letter</a> to Powell) to cut rates by 0.75% at the September meeting.&nbsp;



Front-loading rate cuts could help the US economy “avoid sliding towards a potential crisis,” Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse and John Hickenlooper wrote.



A number of analysts have said the market is pricing in 100bps in rate reductions by the end of the year.



“Obviously, even as inflation has eased, there’s certainly concern that it could return if overall monetary loosening takes place in a fashion that is too big and too fast,” Dixon said.



A modified version of this article first appeared in yesterday’s On the Margin newsletter. Subscribe <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">here</a> so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.



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BTC price fluctuates ahead of expected Fed rate cut

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The vibes are off&nbsp;</h2>



Ethereum’s got a lot of haters right now. Perhaps <a href="https://x.com/moonpay/status/1836282139513602413">Vitalik Buterin singing</a> isn’t the bullish signal everyone’s looking for.



As Bitwise’s Matt Hougan <a href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/a-contrarian-bet-on-ethereum?utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8myxcJG_lpfITufcPu7eyKNK2h8zNEh5ABsX2gxZ5zgvBkUrweNJDM_98m_l6kz_DXzlrob25arL9ArwoopVCKLh8AGQ&amp;_hsmi=325026337&amp;utm_content=325026337&amp;utm_source=hs_email">pointed out in a note</a> yesterday, the ETH/BTC ratio hit its lowest level in three years. ETH has struggled with upward momentum in the past few quarters, unlike both bitcoin and solana.



“The vibes in the community are tough,” Hougan wrote.&nbsp;



It’s a fair assessment, given that the expectation for ETH to follow in bitcoin’s footsteps may be a fair one. Bitcoin received ETF approval earlier this year and then carved out all-time highs just a few months later, and ETH tracked the momentum like a loyal dog.&nbsp;



And yet… it failed to see a huge boost when its own ETFs were approved earlier this year.



“A key factor is the timing of Ethereum ETFs, which launched during the summer — a typically slower period for both the crypto and ETF markets,” Federico Brokate of 21Shares told me. 



“This is also partly due to Ethereum having a less straightforward narrative compared to Bitcoin, which is widely regarded as ‘digital gold.’”



Hougan, in his note, said that there are a few other reasons: the election risk, competitors and tokenomics.&nbsp;



“While Bitcoin has largely passed regulatory scrutiny — even SEC Chair Gary Gensler admits it&#8217;s not a security — Ethereum has not. The SEC appears to think that staked ETH is a security, and the agency has significant worries about the broader DeFi ecosystem that drives much of Ethereum’s value. If Harris wins and continues the Biden administration’s skeptical posture toward crypto, Ethereum could face challenges,” Hougan added.



From the legal standpoint, Hougan is right. It’s worth noting that ETH could be seen as notching a few wins of its own.&nbsp;



Looking closely at the eToro settlement, it seems as if the SEC is dismissing any potential action against ETH by allowing the US-based trading platform to continue offering ether to customers.&nbsp;



Mind you, eToro’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etoro-sec-settlement">settlement cut quite a few of its offerings</a>, so this could be worth reading into.



Either way, neither Hougan nor Brokate are too concerned about the potential death of Ethereum. They’re both cautiously optimistic that it’ll bounce back and that the “price of ether will ultimately reflect the growing adoption of its various use cases,” Brokate said.



“There are several positive catalysts for Ethereum. Investor education will be key to driving further adoption. As Ethereum’s narrative around real-world assets, tokenization and decentralized finance becomes better understood by both retail and institutional investors, demand is expected to grow. Ethereum’s role as a technological innovator is also gaining traction, particularly among those with a deeper understanding of blockchain technology,” he continued.&nbsp;



Hougan pointed to Polymarket’s dependence on ETH, and the fact that over half of all stablecoins are issued on Ethereum according to <a href="https://app.rwa.xyz/stablecoins">data</a> from rwa.xyz.



To be clear, Polymarket <a href="https://polygon.technology/blog/project-spotlight-polymarket-the-biggest-decentralized-prediction-market-in-blockchain">runs on</a> Polygon, but Hougan noted that it “ultimately settles on Ethereum.”&nbsp;



To Hougan, Ethereum is the “Microsoft of blockchains,” perhaps an apt comparison given that Microsoft is one of the largest tech giants, and yet isn’t seen as particularly sexy. Those of you who remember all of the hype around the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) will remember how Microsoft was left out. But that doesn’t mean it’s not competitive in its industry.&nbsp;



“Ethereum remains a foundational technology platform with immense potential. Although it may lag behind Bitcoin in terms of brand recognition, its role in decentralized finance, tokenization and as a programmable blockchain makes it a crucial part of the future digital economy,” Brokate explained.&nbsp;



“Ethereum represents a bet on blockchain innovation, which will only grow in importance as tokenized assets and decentralized financial applications continue to expand. While short-term bearishness may persist, the long-term outlook for Ethereum remains highly positive.”



Perhaps, like Microsoft, Ethereum just needs some time to fully blossom in the eyes of adopters and investors. With FAANG’s fall from grace, Microsoft finally got a seat at the table in the new must-watch grouping of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/investing/magnificent-7-stocks">Magnificent 7</a>.



After all, Ethereum secured itself as essential to crypto, even if the price doesn’t always reflect it. Let it cook.



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Data Center</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Ether has outperformed Microsoft stock in the past year — 42% to 32% — although it’s lagging behind slightly over the year-to-date.</li>



<li>ETH is flat in the past day while bitcoin is ahead 1.2%. (BTC: $59,800; ETH: $2,300.)</li>



<li>Tron lending protocol JustLend has added the most <a href="https://defillama.com/">TVL</a> in the past week, out of apps with $1 billion or more, gaining 4.9% to $5.85 billion.</li>



<li>DEX trading bots are actioning about 250,000 <a href="https://dune.com/whale_hunter/dex-trading-bot-wars">trades</a> per day right now, down from over a million in March.</li>



<li>Solana has flipped Ethereum for weekly derivatives <a href="https://defillama.com/derivatives/chains">volume</a>: $2.666 billion to $2.624 billion.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The flip that flopped</h2>



Something about crypto breeds bombastic calls — but ether flipping bitcoin has long been one of the most lofty.



The ETH/BTC ratio focuses on relative cost. “The flippening” is instead about market caps — whether one asset is valued higher than the other in broad strokes.



Market caps can grow quicker than prices can appreciate, and can even trend in opposite directions.



Take solana: It’s still 50% below its all-time high from November 2021, but its market cap is less than 20% below where it was at its peak — and even set a new capitalization record earlier this year.&nbsp;



Inflation is the culprit. SOL’s circulating supply has swelled by 60% in the past three years, the equivalent of 178 million SOL ($22.6 billion at current prices), or 37% of its market cap right now.



As for ether, it was much closer to flipping bitcoin in the leadup to the 2017 bull run, before the Cambrian explosion of rival layer-1s began pulling market attention away from Ethereum.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc3yafYW7p3_RHCUhhLm1JElgf9cK2yUSDJTrnr-AVCX9coGKnvbVWJW3KFSmHXwYkrNBL864UH4asaGJ49-H5jiYxIe4w1Vf1fvVxKIGhs46n5GWPCF79oXxihZ8tPDUDaNH7VDCn6qNgOVx1xj1TfaKQa?key=MObAuVMr6ep4cIMiv4j2yQ" alt=""/></figure>



The Ethereum flippening was over 83% complete in June 2017 (when BTC traded for under $2,500 and ETH under $350). Now it’s at less than 25%.



There are loads of other rivalries in crypto, both explicit and implicit.&nbsp;



Shiba inu briefly flipped dogecoin in late 2021 but is now back down to about half its value.&nbsp;



Sui and aptos both debuted around the same time (between late 2022 and mid-2023) with similar market positionings — resulting in similar valuations. SUI flipped APT for the first time earlier this week.



And perhaps the market doesn’t realize it now, but it could be that BNB and TON are more alike in vibes, development styles and user adoption than Solana is to Ethereum.&nbsp;



TON is about 20% of the way to eclipsing BNB right now, mostly on account of stalled growth for BNB.



Still, with ETH flipping BTC looking less likely these days, solana flipping ether should be the go-to call for think-posters moving forward.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfaqPqa-LS71aAvGbUJ9CfPKc-mu7yUtb2RCZSUk0Sz4SyHdwhl9EfP_wKU5cJmmR7IuBhS9fway4hjSBJBilozt2l2AJav86LItUH9t4e5lFG5ZYskf59RtarDUh1X0MVEvvtN-URQmmgdie8saX1kzvFR?key=MObAuVMr6ep4cIMiv4j2yQ" alt=""/></figure>



SOL actually recorded its highest ever progress at the end of last month: $68.46 billion to $295.64 billion — 23% flipped.



A complete flipping from here would require SOL to rally by over 330% while ETH trades flat.&nbsp;



Seems unlikely without an explosive catalyst, but watch for the gap to close between this cycle and the next.



— David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Works</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Revolut could be looking into creating its own stablecoin, CoinDesk <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/18/fintech-giant-revolut-said-to-be-planning-stablecoin/">reported</a>.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Jamie Dimon <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/316956/jamie-dimon-says-jpmorgan-chase-is-probably-one-of-the-bigger-users-of-blockchain?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss">said</a> that his company, JPMorgan Chase, is one of the larger users of blockchain.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Prager Metis, FTX’s former accounting firm, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-133">settled</a> with the SEC for $1.95 million over audit negligence.</li>



<li>SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci expressed optimism for pro-crypto regulation in an interview with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/scaramucci-expects-bitcoin-btc-record-on-rate-cuts-clearer-us-rules">Bloomberg</a>.</li>



<li>Republicans have some <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/reps-ask-sec-for-clarity-securities-airdrops">questions</a> for SEC chair Gary Gensler over airdrop regulations.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Riff</h2>



Q: Will crypto become more like traditional markets, or will traditional markets become just like crypto?



A line in the Bitcoin maxi handbook says that there’s “bitcoin” and there’s “crypto.”



It goes that Bitcoin is the immaculately conceived cryptocurrency — pure, unable to be gentrified, cypherpunk to the core.



Crypto by comparison is the product of an “industry” of corporate executives. Salaries. Press departments. HR. Not so rock and roll.



One would’ve thought, in that case, that “crypto” would gravitate further toward traditional finance than bitcoin.&nbsp;



From a pure markets perspective, bitcoin is becoming a lot more like TradFi in terms of how and when it’s traded — Kaiko found that weekend BTC trading <a href="https://research.kaiko.com/insights/btc-etfs-impact-on-spot-market-structure">volume</a> had hit an all-time low of 16% this year, down from 28% in 2019, with the very Wall Street bitcoin ETFs accelerating that trend.



“Crypto,” meanwhile, is fighting to ensure that decentralization and permissionless-ness are lines in the sand that can never be crossed. Ripple, Uniswap, Coinbase and Kraken and others aren’t going quietly into the regulated night.



That could result in the two worlds bumping off each other, rather than completely merge.



— David Canellis



I think there’ll be compromises on both sides, but I wouldn’t be surprised if crypto ends up making more compromises than traditional markets.&nbsp;



And that’s okay.&nbsp;



Look at it this way, traditional markets have been around for a lot longer. Sure, some of the pieces making up the larger puzzle are outdated and crypto fixes that but the foundations of finance are still incredibly strong, especially in the US.&nbsp;



We’re already seeing the correlation between bitcoin and parts of the wider market, as well as the impact that macro events like potential rate cuts have on crypto.&nbsp;



I mean, have you had many conversations lately that haven’t gone back to the relationship between the Fed and crypto? I sure haven’t.&nbsp;



And, despite the SEC’s attempt to weaponize TradFi cornerstones — like Howey — to put down the industry, we’ve seen <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/judge-rules-ripple-xrp-not-security">courts use the same test</a> to push back against the SEC’s claims.&nbsp;



— Katherine Ross



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Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter</a>.



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Ethereum is looking more like the “Microsoft of blockchains” every day

Macauley Peterson

Hemi Labs, the brainchild of former Bitcoin core developer Jeff Garzik, has secured $15 million in a funding round led by Binance Labs, Breyer Capital and Big Brain Holdings to develop its new blockchain network, Hemi.



The network is designed to integrate Bitcoin and Ethereum into a single, modular system. The investment will support Hemi’s development ahead of its planned mainnet launch in late 2024. The project’s incentivized testnet is already live.



Garzik is skeptical of most of the projects calling themselves layer-2’s whether on Ethereum or Bitcoin. He prefers an approach that tries to “unify the experience across both chains.”



“What comes next after Bitcoin L2s? A next generation network marrying the king and queen of crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum,” Garzik told Blockworks.



A central feature of the network is the Hemi Virtual Machine (hVM), which embeds a Bitcoin node within the Ethereum environment, specifically a custom version of the Geth execution client.



Hemi’s consensus mechanism, <a href="https://docs.hemi.xyz/foundational-topics/the-architecture/proof-of-proof">Proof-of-Proof (PoP)</a>, is also novel, arising out of field tests by Veriblock, prior to Hemi Labs’ acquisition of the company in 2023. Veriblock co-founder Max Sanchez came aboard as Hemi’s CTO.



“We have myself, Max and other Bitcoin core dev-level developers building deep in the Geth and Bitcoin core engine,” Garzik said.



This integration allows developers to create dapps that operate across both networks using familiar Ethereum tools.



Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are evolving into settlement layers, with transaction activity migrating to connected networks.



“Where we think our special sauce is on the Ethereum side, where there is very little strong marriage to Bitcoin,” Garzik said, in contrast to the “ton of L2s” on Bitcoin. “They’re all staple gunning [Ethereum Virtual machine (<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/evm">EVM</a>)] on some sort of Bitcoin anchoring, but it&#8217;s a very poor integration.”



The hVM incorporates new byte codes into the EVM that talk directly to Bitcoin, Garzik explained.



“In <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/glossary/#solidity-programming-language-ethereum">Solidity</a>, we can trigger Bitcoin transactions sent out on the Bitcoin main chain. We can parse incoming Bitcoin <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/glossary/#unspent-transaction-output-utxo">UTXOs</a> that are inbound payments from Solidity from the EVM,” Garzik said.



The Hemi Bitcoin Kit (hBK) enables developers to work with Bitcoin more effectively, unlocking features such as trustless smart contracts and decentralized financial products that were difficult to implement directly on Bitcoin.



“This is the Bitcoin [developer] experience that I&#8217;ve wanted for almost 14 years of my being in Bitcoin,” Garzik said, pointing to the difficulty in working with Bitcoin’s limited scripting.



“Only recently have you had technologies like the BitVM vault and some of these more advanced technologies and Bitcoin anchoring,” he said.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-rollups-closer-than-expected">Bitcoin rollups may be closer than we think</a>



The PoP consensus mechanism predates <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research/issue/post_f52d90f1-b169-4430-a3cb-f54e5c37ee66">BitVM</a> but enables what Garzik calls &#8220;superfinality,&#8221; securing transactions with minimal delay — 2 hours or 12 Bitcoin blocks for “full finality” — in contrast to other optimistic fraud proof systems.



By using normal Bitcoin transactions, “it&#8217;s maximally censorship resistant [and] maximally compatible,” Garzik said.



Hemi does plan to support BitVM vaults as a primary Bitcoin bridging solution&nbsp;—&nbsp;Garzik prefers the term “tunneling” as one on-ramp, in addition to an Ethereum bridge. In 2025, he expects to add bridging capability to Solana, Avalanche, and “other ones that have staying power in the market.”



The team also plans to implement the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/lightning-network">Lightning Network</a> for instant payments.



Garzik described the Hemi project as a practical step toward greater interoperability between leading blockchain platforms. He emphasized that the network is designed to offer developers a modular approach that can adapt to changes in the ecosystem while maintaining strong security guarantees.



“I like to call Ethereum the Grand Central Station of crypto, and Bitcoin the root of the crypto tree.”



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Hemi Labs focused on ‘marrying the king and queen of crypto’

Two Republican Congressional Representatives are demanding clarity from the Securities and Exchange Commission about how regulators view airdrops.&nbsp;



Reps. Tom Emmer and Patrick McHenry penned a <a href="https://emmer.house.gov/_cache/files/5/0/50176829-99c6-40ec-87dd-96421f659fd0/58E2521AD98881EC6DB7696DEC1C2A6C.congressionalletter.sec.9.17.24.pdf">letter</a> to SEC Chair Gary Gensler Tuesday, expressing concern that regulators have “misapplied” securities laws to airdrops, a technology, they say, that plays a “crucial role in the development of a decentralized blockchain system.”&nbsp;



Airdrops, which Emmer and McHenry define as digital assets that are distributed to early users of certain protocols, have, like many parts of the crypto industry, been in a regulatory gray area in recent years.&nbsp;



In a 2018 <a href="https://www.huntonak.com/blockchain-legal-resource/assets/htmldocuments/uploads/sites/31/2018/08/33-10530-1.pdf">enforcement action</a> against Tomahawk Exploration’s initial coin offering (ICO), the SEC claimed even tokens distributed for “free,” like airdrops, are <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/securities">securities</a> because they create a public trading market. <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/airdrop">Airdrops</a> are normally given to early community members or others who perform menial tasks (such as downloading an app or promoting a project), the SEC added, but even so, there does not need to be a transfer of money to constitute a “sale.”&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/defi-hearing-lawmakers-clash">House lawmakers clash at first-ever DeFi hearing&nbsp;</a>



It’s a similar argument to the ones securities regulators made in the 1990s during the dot-com craze with “free stock” enforcement actions, attorneys at Hunton Andrews Kurth wrote in a blog <a href="https://www.huntonak.com/blockchain-legal-resource/sec-brings-enforcement-case-involving-airdrop-securities">post</a>.&nbsp;



“In what have become known as the ‘free stock’ cases, investors were typically required to sign up with issuers&#8217; websites and disclose personal information in order to obtain the ‘free’ shares,” the post reads. “The <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a> likewise took the position that the issuers received value (and did not make a gift) by creating a public market for their shares, increasing their business prospects, creating publicity, increasing traffic to their websites and generating possible interest in future public offerings.



Crypto advocacy group the DeFi Education Fund sued the SEC earlier this year alongside Texas-based clothing company Beba Collective in an effort to get a court ruling confirming Beba’s airdropped token was not a security. Plaintiffs in July filed an amended complaint, which the SEC is seeking to dismiss, and are awaiting ruling.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/defi-education-fund-sec-foia">DeFi Education Fund seeks FOIA amid SEC inaction on securities dispute</a>



In their Tuesday letter, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/tom-emmer">Emmer</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/patrick-mchenry">McHenry</a> ask securities regulators to explain if airdrops constitute securities under the Howey test. They also ask why airdrops should be treated any differently from other rewards programs companies routinely engage in, like airline miles or credit card points, which are often gifted.&nbsp;



The Reps. ask that Gensler respond to their inquiries by Sept. 30.&nbsp;



The letter comes a week before the House Financial Services Committee is set to hear from SEC Commissioners during an oversight hearing scheduled for Sept. 24. McHenry, who is not running for re-election this November, chairs the committee, of which Emmer is a member.



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