GensoKishi Metaverse

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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One of the more hotly anticipated airdrops is happening today, with the MOVE Token Generation Event (TGE). Movement Labs’ Movement mainnet beta went live on Dec. 5 ahead of today’s “MoveDrop.”



The Movement chain’s big idea is to provide the MoveVM execution environment, but settle to Ethereum, with a focus on the scalability and security sides of the typical blockchain trilemma.



Movement’s approach parallels the Eclipse chain’s use of the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) to extend <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eclipse-svm-ethereum-mainnet">Ethereum&#8217;s capabilities</a>. Just as Eclipse allows Solana developers to interact seamlessly with Ethereum without abandoning the SVM&#8217;s advantages, Movement Labs enables Move developers to branch out from <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sui">Sui</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/aptos">Aptos</a>, while still taking advantage of Move’s safety-focus and a high-throughput environment, according to Rushi Manche, co-founder of Movement Labs.



“We are the first and only Move-based Ethereum scaling solution,” Manche, who comes from an Aptos background, told Blockworks. “So, if you think of it, all the benefits of Move combined with Ethereum’s liquidity.”



The TGE distributes up to 10% of the MOVE token supply, designed to reward community contributions and participation. On the first day of trading, MOVE is seeing an $8 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) down from a high of about $9 billion. That puts it in the vicinity of Celestia (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/tia">TIA</a>) and Mantle Network (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/mnt">MNT</a>) on an FDV basis.



Movement’s token plays a role in the network operations, as “attestants” must stake MOVE tokens to offer finality guarantees for transactions.



Movement Labs has undergone significant architectural changes during its development. Initially, the project was designed as a standard optimistic rollup on Ethereum. However, optimistic rollups typically have a seven-day period to fully settle on Ethereum.



Unlike rollups, Movement does not need to wait for Ethereum finality, thanks to its &#8220;<a href="https://blog.movementlabs.xyz/article/postconfirmations-L2s-rollups-blockchain-movement">post-confirmation</a>&#8221; mechanism. This system, akin to a <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/bellcurve/0345b516-eb15-11ee-854f-cbb5ba1433a1">pre-confirmation</a>, provides a better user experience given a one-second finality, though at the expense of some security guarantees. While Movement does not inherit Ethereum’s security, the economic collateral from stakers is subject to slashing — closer to the Polygon PoS sidechain than to a zk-rollup.



“We need to have an economic stake built up ahead of time, such that if someone’s malicious or transactions go wrong, we have something to slash,” Manche said, in justifying the launch of the token before the production version of the Movement mainnet.



Developers stand to benefit from Movement’s architecture. A high-throughput execution environment and improvements to <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/smart-contracts">smart contract</a> security are at the core of the Move programming language, which is widely regarded as being safer than <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/glossary/#solidity-programming-language-ethereum">Solidity</a>. Some examples of applications already building on the network include the Meridian DEX, lending market Echelon, and Bracket, which offers innovative prediction market tools.&nbsp;



Movement’s competitive strategy is focused on community and developer engagement.



“The moat is in each community, which is something that you can&#8217;t fork,” Manche said, noting their approach avoids unsustainable practices like incentivized liquidity programs.



Manche says Movement is more closely-aligned with other Move-based chains than it is to Ethereum.



“Obviously, we’re an odd duck in the EVM and Ethereum community, given the fact that we&#8217;re doing alternative VMs, we have an alternative rollup framework and the architecture of the token design as well,” Manche said.



But there’s room for the full-range of experimentation in the Ethereum design space to compete with high-throughput chains like Solana, he said.



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MOVE drops following Movement mainnet beta

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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It goes without saying: What’s good for bitcoin is good for bitcoin ETFs.



No surprise then that almost $10 billion net has now flowed into US-listed spot funds since Trump’s win — about 83% going to BlackRock’s IBIT.



Some ETFs are still doing better than others.



To be clear: Share prices for the ETFs, by design, closely track the price of bitcoin. But share prices don’t reflect whether the funds themselves are up or down on their bitcoin purchases to date.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdBtcG8v9xnbBpBH-aO0RfFs8gbaggwf6IERtUb0tjI4KLQ9uCAVZxcZZUDsznAh8hMOIFFx0YaqAh6y5ulfNNBqQrkq199DC77XNZpc0AkflD2Q7muyhv9DWav_9d5wlixySwkJg?key=SqGwdpxRB2p0l4T3I5c5Fq1I" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Blue is IBIT, orange is GBTC. Notice that flows relaxed when bitcoin’s price trended sideways</figcaption></figure>



Every stock market trading day, the funds must spend the cash flowing into them on an equivalent amount of BTC. And vice versa: They must offload coins when net flows are negative.



So, it’s possible to calculate an estimate for how much BTC each fund buys and sells per day, by dividing the daily US dollar flow figures by the price of bitcoin (per CF Benchmark reference <a href="https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRR">rate</a>, which all the major funds use).



Tally those BTC-denominated flows together and you get their cumulative current holdings: over 855,000 BTC ($84.2 billion), not counting Grayscale’s GBTC and BTC, and more than 1.1 million BTC ($108.3 billion) when included. That’s about 5.6% of the circulating supply.



But what we’re after is the value of each fund’s BTC stash compared to how much they paid for all those coins, what I’ve called relative value on the chart below.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcXDv2xjHhAsF_fWQULTJ4FqRlgorCM9e0VahU5dPDl0cYxjfPDP5KsLF0nPlMxRd8tJ6qzPFhfQ_Kju5KE1CZij62xLr0nUib6XNQclC8bJcDlJiGqXhq_1R5g5-4DMX71FIEWaw?key=SqGwdpxRB2p0l4T3I5c5Fq1I" alt=""/></figure>



It turns out that Invesco-Galaxy’s BTCO is far ahead of the rest of the pack — it has acquired around 8,740 BTC net for $418.9 million so far. As of this morning, BTCO’s bitcoin would fetch $860.6 million, putting its shareholder collective ahead by more than 100%.



As you can see on the next chart, three-quarters of BTCO’s net flows to date came in the first two weeks of live trading, when bitcoin was changing hands for under $43,000.



BTCO’s average estimated purchase price per coin: $47,930.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcdqmgWhShsEwz-1EfKg6jcfKhmUDvqA30IOfvAmwVaVgmSxICIct67biDtKWIH4xFFm3L_gepWAgarCN2LTdITLQWF-toF7hamAv4kiaB7NxLRB9M3j5Hm17yym7lk-kxWgYtqug?key=SqGwdpxRB2p0l4T3I5c5Fq1I" alt=""/></figure>



Compare that to BlackRock’s IBIT. It has maintained more steady flows over the past 11 months — acquiring roughly 523,935 BTC from $34.4 billion net flows.&nbsp;



That means the ETF has effectively dollar-cost averaged its bitcoin stash to date, giving it an average coin price of $65,600. 



IBIT is about 50% ahead on its BTC purchases to date and has timed the market worse than any other fund in the cohort.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfe_CRn3P8MvkOXsziSHlAO8wxj-ljSYoGLHOCH1Mdg6FCo1Cyb8-Ol_5qXuv5BnINRYxVqcE8VgXgnFtMm5RRYU8o5SqOSiXiXD-cfDU0TdlPpn9OQ4OKeQhn16k2x8zwux5-taA?key=SqGwdpxRB2p0l4T3I5c5Fq1I" alt=""/></figure>



Of course, IBIT’s BTC has appreciated much more than BTCO’s in raw dollar terms, on account of the sheer size of the fund by comparison.&nbsp;



Still, hats off to BTCO’s contributors. Now let’s see how long they can hold.



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Some bitcoin ETFs are doing better than others

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Need some holiday cheer this Monday morning? Don’t worry, I’ve got you: Bitcoin at $120,000 could be a thing by Christmas.&nbsp;



Or so Steven McClurg, Canary Capital CEO, thinks.&nbsp;



“There’s a lot of appetite” for bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs, which could fuel the run, he added.&nbsp;



I’m not going to sugarcoat it. That type of run looks tough right now. Over the weekend, bitcoin mostly sat below six figures, unable to take — and hold — $100k.



But McClurg told me all of the work he’s done has led him to believe that a rally could happen. And even if $120,000 remains elusive into the next year, he’s hopeful that it’s a matter of when we see it rather than if.&nbsp;



And, if we don’t see that number by Christmas, he’s fairly certain we’ll see it before we ring in the new year.&nbsp;



Keep in mind, McClurg’s price target is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-levels-to-watch">fairly similar</a> (a mere $5k short) to Ledn’s John Glover’s PT.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfUjUtzFoX5Q6DYBLe20tjsHU89i9kB6mMumQ0BVWDXMVbYrNiDSVmGckPRpqufX8kgdcp5qCtG_6JDL0e0CdOhsX7UESiEc7gY0oo6yHzNuhm8C-lICUuGylKkpVJ48nGdNjvOwQ?key=SqGwdpxRB2p0l4T3I5c5Fq1I" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Just look at how far we’ve come this year</figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-100k-breakout-just-the-start">As I wrote last week</a>, some analysts are concerned that late January could mark a turning point for bitcoin.



K33’s Vetle Lunde, in a note, wrote: “The average distance between BTC’s first cycle ATH and its last ATH during its past three cycles is 318 days. Under the assumption that average trajectories hold, a peak would occur on January 17. This is not unlikely, given that Trump’s inauguration will take place on January 20.”



McClurg doesn’t think we’ll see the market peak next month. Instead, he reckons it could last anywhere from June to October, which is specifically based on the fact that bitcoin historically runs for roughly six months after a new president takes office.&nbsp;



When I asked whether or not the four-year cycle will hold moving forward, McClurg said yes…with a twist.&nbsp;



“I believe that cycle will still be there, but that being said, bitcoin will begin to follow the broader macroeconomic cycle closer over time than the typical four-year cycle,” he told me.



Now this is important to note for a few reasons: We have a few macro events incoming. Not only are we getting the all-important November CPI this week, but we also have the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Both of which could have a positive (or negative, depending on the data and what’s said) impact for bitcoin.&nbsp;



It seems like it’ll be par for the course to see continued fluctuation between the upper $90k’s and $100k.



Still, who knows. The market could feel merry and bright in light of the holidays, and a $120k run is just around the corner.



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$120K by Xmas: Why another bitcoin run could be in the cards

Two double-digit rounds led the funding announcements this week. The first came from Spexi, which is a DePIN for drone imagery.&nbsp;



Spexi raised $11.5 million in a Series A led by Blockchange Ventures. The round comes two years after it raised a seed round.&nbsp;



The firm developed “an innovative, blockchain-based ‘Fly to Earn’ network” back in 2017. It seeks to advance “the aerial imagery industry by building a scalable global network of drone pilots to capture and deliver frequently updated, data-rich earth, fully standardized imagery to both the public and private sectors — all with near-zero emissions.”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-exec-founds-internet-depin">Solana Foundation exec departs for ‘the most interesting experiment in crypto’</a>



“With our ability to scale rapidly and deliver superior data with near-zero emissions, I am proud that we are not only supporting essential government and emergency response services at a fraction of the usual cost, but also driving the future of <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/artificial-intelligence">AI</a> and metaverse-powered technologies across industries globally,” said Bill Lakeland, CEO of Spexi.



The company said its dataset is being used to train AI models.



&#8220;Spexi has defined a new category of business by pairing better and cheaper drone imagery with the blockchain&#8217;s ability to ensure image integrity. Spexi is not simply replacing existing satellite imaging use cases, but opening entirely new markets in geospatial, insurance, AI, public safety, government, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/gaming">gaming</a> and more,” Blockchange’s Ken Seiff said.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/depin-monetized-tesla-dashcam-data">Turning Tesla cameras into data engines</a>



Union Labs announced that it raised $12 million in a Series A round led by Gumi Cryptos Capital and Long Hash Capital.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">zkgm, Union Labs is thrilled to announce its $12M Series A round, led by <a href="https://twitter.com/GumiCryptos?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GumiCryptos</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/LongHashVC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LongHashVC</a>, bringing total capital raised to $16M. <a href="https://t.co/nNtzBupy77">pic.twitter.com/nNtzBupy77</a>&mdash; Union (@union_build) <a href="https://twitter.com/union_build/status/1863980783574323309?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The cross-chain protocol helps blockchains communicate with each other.&nbsp;



By using consensus verification, Union remains independent from centralized entities, allowing it to support any ecosystem/asset with minimal trusted actors.



&#8220;This, combined with our hyper-efficient zk architecture, allows us to deliver subsecond transfer times between chains,” Union explained. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other notable funding news:&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Brighty <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/03/2990863/0/en/Brighty-Raises-10-Million-to-Enable-Crypto-Payments-in-the-Real-World.html">announced</a> a $10 million raise. Futurecraft Ventures led the round. </li>



<li>Yuga Labs <a href="https://x.com/FonzGm/status/1863665269975159276">acquired</a> Tokenproof’s tech team for an undisclosed amount.</li>



<li>Avant <a href="https://x.com/avantprotocol/status/1864354170415009876">said</a> it raised $6.5 million in a seed funding round. Avalanche and Superlayer were notable investors.</li>



<li>Fiamma <a href="https://x.com/Fiamma_Chain">announced</a> it raised $4 million in a seed round led by Faction and L2 Iterative Ventures. </li>



<li>Sekai <a href="https://x.com/joinsekai/status/1864703483120951786">said</a> it raised $3.1 million in a seed round led by Hashed.</li>
</ul>



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Funding Roundup: Drone imagery DePIN raises $11.5M

Ben Strack

Coinbase’s former chief architect returned to the crypto exchange as its head of platform.&nbsp;



Rob Witoff led the company’s security and infrastructure from 2014 to 2017 before creating cold storage company Unit 410, Coinbase Chief Operating Officer Emilie Choi wrote in a Dec. 2 blog <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/blog/Welcome-Rob-Witoff-to-the-Coinbase-Exec-Team">post</a>. He became the company’s newest executive team member this week.&nbsp;



“Rob embodies what it is to be a builder,” Choi wrote. “He cares deeply about crypto, developer productivity and empowerment, and creating a seamless user experience.”



21.co also made an executive appointment — multiple in fact.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The crypto-focused firm revealed it would have two distinct business units: <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/21shares">21Shares</a> and 21.co Technologies. As part of that change, the company said Russell Barlow would take over as 21Shares’ CEO.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/former-blackrock-exec-joins-21shares">Crypto Hiring: Former BlackRock leader jumps ship to 21Shares</a>



Overseeing the asset management and ETP business, Barlow will report to Hany Rashwan and Ophelia Snyder — 21.co co-founders who are now 21Shares co-chairs.



Barlow is the former global head of alternative and multi-asset investments at UK investment giant abrdn. Also ex-executives at abrdn are Duncan Moir and Edel Bashir, who were tapped to be 21Shares’ president and COO, respectively.&nbsp;



Finally, Andres Valencia — with 21Shares since 2021 — is now its executive vice president of investment management.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Also this week, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/chainalysis">Chainalysis</a> said Jonathan Levin, the company’s co-founder and chief strategy officer, would now take on the chief executive role.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/chainalysis-hires-former-irsci-agent">Crypto Hiring: Chainalysis enlists high-level IRS veteran</a>



“As CEO, I look forward to continuing to deliver cutting edge data, investigations and risk solutions to our customers while also pursuing new market opportunities,” Levin said in a statement.&nbsp;



Then there was Meanwhile, a life insurance company denominated in bitcoin, which appointed a chief compliance officer. Alice Tregunna is set to fill that position after working as the compliance and financial crime lead at EY.



Finally,&nbsp; Solana Foundation strategy head Austin Federa said he would <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-exec-founds-internet-depin">depart the nonprofit</a> to create DoubleZero, a network of fiber and subsea cables meant to establish a “new internet.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">In case you missed it:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>If you didn’t see during Thanksgiving week, payments platform xMoney Global appointed Dr. Greg Siourounis, a former managing director at Sui Foundation, as its CEO.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sol-strategies-rebrand">Sol Strategies</a> last month added crypto investor Anthony Pompliano as an adviser. The publicly traded Canadian company focused on the Solana ecosystem then, on Thursday, submitted its application to list on the Nasdaq.</li>



<li>Also as November wrapped up, Philipp Wassibauer joined CrunchDAO as its chief technology officer. He was most recently working as director of engineering at Dune Analytics.</li>
</ul>



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Crypto Hiring: Coinbase, 21Shares make key appointments

Donovan Choy

The team behind the blockchain-themed trading card game AceTCG is launching this week 192 unique “Alpha Cards” NFTs that are inspired by crypto’s wacky history and culture.



Alpha Cards are digital collectible cards, and an adaptation of the open-source AceTCG trading card game.



The NFT collection will be released across eight drops over four weeks, with mints every Monday and Thursday. Its first mint, which went live on the Base network, has seen about 2,148 mints as of Friday.



The physical trading card game AceTCG features “Magic: The Gathering”-like combat play with crypto-themed cards that capture many of crypto’s historical moments, memes and technical jargon familiar to industry natives.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/karate-combat-layer-2-blockchain">Web3 Watch: Classic fighter Samurai Shodown comes to Sui</a>



There are summonable creature cards like “dog wif hat” and “SEC Auditron,” or spell cards like “Centralized Sequencer,” “Account Abstraction” and “Fiat Fountain.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfEuA00M24PeOyzmttgYC7cPFkvKwH_2M1GR_zGAmD64EjSJstwTlIvfsDs1-oPNPP9KlczYzBWezD6e3PyUo0ylWf32BfjpDLh5aF1RSiai6phIFgLdS_0edkALXDRoX4rOUqgbw?key=vANeGyf0kT_s55ScNUyWnwHo" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/colton_art/status/1864705975434768619">AceTCG</a></figcaption></figure>



AceTCG’s intellectual property was intentionally open-sourced to keep in line with the ethos of crypto and Web3.



Colton Orr, founder of AceTCG and ex-creative director at Gitcoin, said: “The open-source nature of the game is core to my values and something I’ve committed to continuing so others can build on this work.”



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-patents-open-source-ethos">Crypto can benefit from patents without losing its open source ethos&nbsp;</a>



AceTCG was bootstrapped with a <a href="https://gov.gitcoin.co/t/gcp-006-passed-infinite-garden-trading-card-game/13424">Gitcoin grant </a>in March 2023 and was built over the course of two years on a makeshift “treadmill desk” in the basement of Orr’s parent’s home, based on Orr’s <a href="https://coltonart.substack.com/p/60da9ff9-fadb-4a27-b915-4e1450a2a3c8?postPreview=paid&amp;updated=2024-12-03T18%3A51%3A39.302Z&amp;audience=everyone&amp;free_preview=false&amp;freemail=true">blog</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXditjecvdauHkSOoyRb9Q644HZwY8Y0643MBY-CGOnC3ioHy0RAq5Z7ZHf1rfRikJLOEWvF3E9VasdUQsYwGhVHxApodr9BX8PDAJo94xuh8pqYZmwn7Nzy9fKMLOwZk4Jr0cG7?key=vANeGyf0kT_s55ScNUyWnwHo" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://coltonart.substack.com/p/60da9ff9-fadb-4a27-b915-4e1450a2a3c8?postPreview=paid&amp;updated=2024-12-03T18%3A51%3A39.302Z&amp;audience=everyone&amp;free_preview=false&amp;freemail=true">Coltonart</a></figcaption></figure>



The first “Alpha Edition” of the cards was printed and eventually sold out at <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cosmoverse-istanbul-conference-blockchain.">DevConnect Istanbul</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Evrloot officially launches on Polkadot</h2>



Evrloot, a blockchain RPG built on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polkadot-reaches-major-milestone-with-launch-of-parachain-auctions">Polkadot’s Moonbeam network</a>, has transitioned from closed beta to full launch as of Thursday.



Built by a 13-member team at Chainfood Studio, Evrloot began as a passion project by <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polkadot">Polkadot</a> fans.



In its beta phase, the game recorded over 1.5 million onchain transactions and peaked at 1000 monthly active users.



Tobi “Deckard” Amann, CEO of Chainfood Studio, said of the game’s mechanics: “Through their in-game actions, players shape the story and forge the lore of this world. As RPG enthusiasts, creating a canvas like this has always been our dream — and with Evrloot, we’ve found an exciting and ethical opportunity to bring our vision fully onchain.”



The free-to-play medieval fantasy game uses the <a href="https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-6220">ERC-6220</a> composable NFT standard to tokenize in-game characters and save files, items and achievements.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">One interesting stat:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>NFT trading <a href="https://dune.com/queries/2704953/4502617">volumes</a> are making a comeback, climbing roughly 260% from $30 million to $108 million since early November. At its peak in February 2023, NFT weekly trading volumes reached about $632 million.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Also of note:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Illuvium is <a href="https://x.com/illuviumio/status/1863704769073910143">collaborating</a> with Casio G-SHOCK to release an NFT card collection. The NFTs are usable in Illuvium’s “Beyond” card collection game.</li>



<li>A tokenized 1999 first edition holographic Charizard Pokemon card on the Polygon blockchain is going up for <a href="https://x.com/0xPolygon/status/1865033783398777298">auction</a> on the Courtyard platform Friday. </li>



<li>Chiliz <a href="https://www.chiliz.com/chiliz-announces-strategic-integration-with-fanc/">announced</a> a strategic integration with FanC, the creator economy platform behind the content app CELEBe, which boasts 830,000 monthly active users.</li>
</ul>



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Web3 Watch: Based on crypto’s wild history, AceTCG-inspired ‘Alpha Cards’ NFTs go live

Jack Kubinec

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The team behind the memecoin launchpad pump.fun began restricting UK users this morning.



The move came days after the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority tagged pump.fun as unauthorized. Most firms need the regulator’s approval to do finance-related business in the country. It&#8217;s apparently the platform&#8217;s first public restriction, despite facing past criticism for its fast-and-loose approach to moderation.



Notably, pump.fun — which allows users to launch Solana-based tokens for around $2 — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pumpdotfun-suspends-livestream-feature">took down</a> its livestreaming feature last week after a number of violent and disturbing streams went viral.



The site’s UK block doesn’t represent a ban per se, Shardspace co-founder Avaunt <a href="https://t.me/c/2346547958/380">said</a> in the Lightspeed Telegram chat. Rather, pump.fun likely never properly registered and complied with the UK’s crypto guidelines, and the regulator is just now holding it accountable.



Pump.fun has some apparent links to the UK. When the then-nascent platform was exploited by former contractor Jarett Dunn in May, he was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pump-dot-fun-exploiter-arrest-london">arrested in London</a>. Dunn, a notorious online troll, did make a seemingly-serious <a href="https://x.com/jarettdunn/status/1792219540060864549">claim</a> that pump.fun is linked to a UK-based entity called Baton Corporation.&nbsp;



“Pump is not legally based in the UK,” the platform’s pseudonymous founder alon told me in a text, but they declined to elaborate further.



Zooming out for a second though, it’s somewhat surprising a pump.fun restriction took this long in the first place. The UK is no crypto libertarian paradise — for example, prediction market favorite Polymarket is already unavailable there. The UK’s financial regulator <a href="https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-finds-crypto-ownership-continues-rise-it-delivers-plans-regulate-crypto#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20year%20of,websites%20and%20over%2050%20apps.">claims</a> to have taken down “over 900 scam crypto websites and over 50 apps” since October 2023.



“Thought IP [address] restrictions were pretty common in this industry lol not quite sure why [everyone is] freaking out,” Tom, anonymous contributor to Raydium, told me in a text.



Pump.fun has been the most popular app on Solana — and at times in all of crypto — for much of this year. With that popularity will inevitably come scrutiny, especially when users are beheading chickens on livestream in hopes of making a token’s price go up. If Gary Gensler’s SEC tenure were to continue past this year, it’s hard to imagine the SEC wouldn’t have taken some sort of action against pump.fun, too.



How the fallout from pump.fun’s livestream snafu settles will be something to watch. Perhaps regulators will be able to do what criticism or backlash never could — slow down a startup that has already <a href="https://dune.com/adam_tehc/pumpfun">generated</a> $283 million in revenue in its first year of existence.



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Pump.fun restricts access for UK users

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Remember when the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-sues-coinbase">SEC sued Coinbase</a> last year for alleged securities violations? And then earlier this year, the crypto exchange <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-lawsuit-sec-fdic-foia-dispute">launched suits</a> against the SEC and FDIC after its Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests were denied?&nbsp;



Related, Coinbase on Friday shared letters from the FDIC. The documents, <a href="https://x.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1865036008989106594">according</a> to chief legal officer Paul Grewal, show that “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/chokepoint-2-0-efforts-effective">Operation Chokepoint 2.0</a> wasn&#8217;t just some crypto conspiracy theory.”&nbsp;



A March 2022 letter about a proposed “fintech product” (written by FDIC assistant regional director Eric Guyot) notes, for example, the FDIC “has not yet determined what, if any, regulatory filings will be necessary for a bank to engage in this type of activity.” Guyot then adds: “As a result, we respectfully ask that you pause all crypto asset-related <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/operation-choke-point-2-0">activity</a>.”



The black highlighter tool (i.e., government redactions) was used plenty on that letter and others. The FDIC is “still hiding behind way overbroad redactions,” Grewal explained.



History Associates, a consultancy firm Coinbase hired in 2023 to help <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-sec-foia-lawsuit-continues">retrieve records</a>, said in a Friday court <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/c5bd0wqjc7v0/5JkeqemWbKj7reB6R7O1J7/808b360191cc0e1117482fe5b1d14817/-26-_Joint_Status_Report_Requesting_In_Camera_Review.pdf">filing</a> that it’s not satisfied with what the FDIC produced.



First, the letters appear to redact information about the type of digital asset products or services at issue, History Associates notes. And secondly, heavy redactions in four specific letters “makes it difficult for History Associates to evaluate whether the FDIC has disclosed all non-exempt portions of those letters.”



The FDIC claims, according to the court filing, that the redactions help protect the identity of the banks. An FDIC spokesperson declined to comment further.



Operation Chokepoint 2.0 claims resurfaced recently when a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRj9pIITwEU">said</a> on Joe Rogan’s podcast that roughly 30 tech and crypto founders have been debanked in recent years.



“Law-abiding American businesses should be able to access banking services without government interference,” Grewal added on X, noting the incoming administration can reverse course.



I’m sure there’ll be plenty more on this front.



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Coinbase’s fray with the FDIC continues

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday evening announced his pick for the new AI and crypto czar position: David Sacks.&nbsp;



Sacks, one of Trump’s most vocal and influential supporters in Silicon Valley, is closely tied with administration insiders, including Vice President-elect JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk. Vance has called Sacks one of his “closest friends in the tech world.”&nbsp;



Sacks made a name for himself at PayPal — co-founded by Musk, Peter Thiel and others — in the early 2000s. The three are all members of the so-called “PayPal mafia,” a group of former employees and founders who went on to create and invest in major tech companies like YouTube and OpenAI.&nbsp;



Sacks then went south for a brief stint in Hollywood, during which he produced Thank You for Smoking, a satirical comedy based on the novel by Christopher Buckley.&nbsp;



When he returned to Northern California he founded Yammer, a workplace communications platform later acquired by Microsoft, and venture capital firm Craft Ventures. And then (in what should come as a shock to no one), he started a podcast during the Covid pandemic. “All-In” is co-hosted by fellow VCs Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg.&nbsp;



“David Sacks is the very best of America — a successful entrepreneur, a principled free speech absolutist and a brilliant technologist,” Palihapitiya <a href="https://x.com/chamath/status/1864850804601229351">wrote</a> on X Thursday. “He will make sure the US stays at the forefront of AI and crypto — two of the most consequential technological movements in history.”



So there’s his resume. As for this new job, Trump said Thursday Sacks will “guide policy for the administration in [AI] and cryptocurrency, two areas critical to the future of American competitiveness.” His objective? Make “America the clear global leader in both areas.”&nbsp;



Sounds like a tall order.&nbsp;



On the crypto side, Sacks is expected to be the driving force behind what the Trump Administration <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">has promised</a> will be a new era of digital asset regulation. Trump added on Thursday that Sacks will be working on a “legal framework” for the industry that will help provide the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">clarity</a>” many execs have been requesting.&nbsp;



It’s unclear yet whether Sacks will have a staff of advisers, but we expect he will. I’d imagine stakeholders in both the crypto and AI industries are already vying for a seat at Sacks’ table. 



As for the AI-crypto combo, the decision to make one czar in charge of policy recommendations isn’t shocking, but I’ll be curious how it plays out. These two facets of the broader technology sector are often <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ai-agents-nothing-new">lumped together</a>, especially as both <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-crypto-innovation">continue to grow</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-future-is-decentralized-compute-networks">raise</a> new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-venture-fund-crypto-ai">regulatory</a><a href="https://blockworks.co/news/decentralize-ai-to-curb-big-tech">questions</a>. But they are two distinct industries nonetheless. We’ll be watching.



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Podcaster David Sacks cinches top crypto job in Trump Administration

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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One of crypto’s biggest go-to market strengths are tokens.



The ability to spin up billions of dollars worth of digital tokens with a click, then use them as lucrative grants to attract users and developers has very much become part of the standard Web3 growth playbook.&nbsp;



It works, but the tangible benefits of this spending is hard to measure.



Grant money invites extractive rent-seekers, creating a cycle of fleeting capital that rapidly shifts between projects in search of quick gains.



As such, DAO grant spending has largely been bogged with inefficiencies.



Since November 2023, Arbitrum has distributed 71 million ARB ($81 million) to ecosystem projects through the Short-Term Incentive Program (STIP) <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/arbitrum-dao-grant-program">grant program</a>. This was a significant expenditure at about 3-4% of Arbitrum’s entire <a href="https://www.tally.xyz/gov/arbitrum/treasury">treasury</a>.



Treasure DAO co-founder Karel Vuong, who eventually did not participate in STIP due to the grant’s<a href="https://x.com/karelvuong/status/1709315736483569768"> misalignment</a> with gaming applications, called the grant a “double-edged sword.”&nbsp;



“While it led to some degree of ecosystem growth and usage as well as learnings to inform a longer-term DAO-led program for incentives, this also came at the cost of increased sell pressure of ARB, poor mitigation of sybilling and decreased value capture resulting from the lower sequencer margin post-ArbOS Atlas upgrade,” Vuong told Blockworks.



As part of the Arbitrum Research &amp; Development Committee (ARDC), Blockworks Research <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/stip-analysis-ardc-research-deliverables/23438?u=blockworksresearch">conducted</a> a study of STIP’s impact on 17 Arbitrum projects across the verticals of perpetual exchanges, AMM exchanges and yield aggregators.



An econometric method known as a “synthetic control” was used to compare real-world Arbitrum to a simulated version that received no grants. In terms of ROI, STIP generated $15.2 million in sequencer revenue for Arbitrum against a $85.2 million marketing spend between November 2023 to March 2024.



In sum, Arbitrum’s sequencer revenues would have generated 43% less without STIP.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcVBvuyxSXOYhT86z8EvagEdXIHl_sydMHkZRQq3oJsk2BIqvjWgp1WcjqeLNQbEa5u4x_oeu_TKyU3ppS5YbJtDg2-LSzST3lGbII-664MLZ7tBWwPv7zwPcaFiHYZCWAWGhrtRw?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1820523798543917252/photo/1">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



A subsequent second grant program, the <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/ardc-research-deliverables/23438/14">Long-Term Incentive Pilot Program</a> (LTIPP), has to date distributed another 22.87 million ARB ($26 million) to users over 12 weeks.



To better track its impact, the metric of “volume-adjusted TVL” was used to better reflect growing TVL numbers that were actually translating into real activity. Simply put, volume-adjusted TVL gives more weight to protocols only when trading volumes are growing faster than TVL.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf-MZ_2ausEmFdEMQWknnH04z0I4crm-P07WRr9VVbILB-VT9Qnqb6SWZVR76ZCSY3rS7Cy9ObK4gaXFYDmaRmTjnPfApcza0dD448GvlxDCpSfMR14WVFmmEzxV1ViumVp9yZYfQ?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/unlocked/arbitrum-ltipp-analysis">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



Based on Blockworks Research <a href="https://forum.arbitrum.foundation/t/ardc-research-deliverables/23438/14">studies</a>, LTIPP had a positive impact on sequencer revenues and Arbitrum’s DEX and lending markets, but not its perps markets:



We find that, for lending, DEXs, and perps, TVL market share grew by 25%, 17%, and -5% respectively. We find that volume market share grew by 7%, 21%, and -11.38%, respectively. And finally, sequencer revenue market share grew by 6.54%. As one can see, while incentives have a positive impact on DEX, lending and sequencer revenues, they do not have a positive impact on perps.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdyFOsEyJlJdXlmQQaNSi32_pYJJCqsbG9o9BBW0Rq2w2AT782vqXXLoyPoYPNfiVms38H8IusOpHPnDYFkEwpsocT8a_4AUqfzgbq05JBu5VjxtNJfcUfTRYU_2NHDOhVpYBEzIg?key=AerOXhPGRPbLAf1X5pU_So3u" alt=""/></figure>



For more, see Blockworks Research’s latest <a href="https://x.com/BlockworksAdv/status/1864407444069470254">report</a>, Meta-Analysis on Incentive Programs.



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Do DAO grants really work to stimulate growth?

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Happy Friday!



The bitcoin blues are real today, though We’ve been told by many a bull that there’s still a few weeks left in December to hit another new all-time high. We’ll just have to see if that pans out.&nbsp;



Keep calm and carry on, as the UK government once advised. We think it’s pretty relevant right now.&nbsp;



Anyway, this morning, we’re diving into this cycle and why it’s really not that different from past cycles (sorry, y’all) and a lot of people have thoughts on AI agents and where they go from here.&nbsp;



See you bright and early Monday.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This time is no different</h2>



It’s always tempting to go against the grain. To believe this time is different.



The problem with that is, at least in crypto, everything that is happening today has already played out in the past.&nbsp;



Bitcoin bull markets have so far been cyclical and, therefore, even predictable.



With the exception of BTC’s all-time high <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">before the halving</a> this time around — rather than around six months after the fact — the current bitcoin bull market is totally par for the course.



Those who’ve been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/election-impact-bitcoin-bull-market">reading</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-performance">our</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-bitcoin-bull-market-status">emails</a> are familiar with the chart below. It plots our current run (purple) against previous cycles (the others) as if they all started at once.



As you can see, this bitcoin bull run to date is entirely standard. Not especially fast, slow or explosive, and more or less in line with the previous bull run.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcYuiwE0Il7MWIWhjwY6QSol44gfuhQeXiHAsg7D3gdepfzZX8dtscVjoowSTWRoPJDddJBImvqfV-VkbnrekyO0J7KK4VOEZgtP2T8ukLtKWOTxe4eiQBDVsKrXhl3aXehq0JR?key=DvXPs3aNxCdKm5blI_ybMrN6" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Not shown: bitcoin’s first major run between late 2009 and the second half of 2011</figcaption></figure>



Bull market trajectories have indeed been similar over the years. But there are still emerging trends:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. BTC is taking longer to reach cycle peaks each time</h2>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>



Bitcoin topped about 750 days into its first major bull market cycle between 2011 and 2015.&nbsp;



It took 845 days to peak in the following bull market between 2015 and 2018, and more than 1,060 days in the one after, which spanned 2018 and 2022.



Today is day 746 of the bull market. If the trend holds, we could see another 10 months to a year before a real peak.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Returns are shrinking.</h2>



<ol start="2" class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>



Bitcoin went almost 621x in the first run, over 100x in the second and nearly 22x in the third.



Extrapolating that downward trend implies BTC would go about 6x from the bottom of the bear to the cycle top.&nbsp;



Good news: We’ve already smashed those returns — BTC at $100,000 is 6.7x.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf5RAUp5bGjcKqkxcNZXizw6hifiG-E7JYs89hYw3qHr6nfg_W46SgOWFO_fTYq60N3oPh2B1CZbzRKJODmtX810RwWz3O-Y9IaRzdNNfxAA8Wr4GRzT_fuiBhEnNK-48eQ1qEO?key=DvXPs3aNxCdKm5blI_ybMrN6" alt=""/></figure>



Above is the same chart but for altcoins (everything that isn’t bitcoin).



We already know that we’re getting closer to a potential <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/altcoin-market-returns-against-btc">fully-fledged altcoin season</a>. What’s interesting is just how far altcoins will need to run to match their growth from the last cycle.&nbsp;



The market cap of crypto (excluding bitcoin) had gone 49x by the time it peaked in November 2021. To date, altcoins have done 3.7x at most.&nbsp;



It’s reassuring, at least, that it took altcoins more than 1,000 days to peak on the past two occasions.&nbsp;



So, if this time truly isn’t different, there’s still plenty of time for alts.&nbsp;



Nothing quite like hopium on a Friday morning.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Why the bull run so far has been standard

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Jobs week continues with the latest initial claims <a href="https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20242507.pdf">report</a> released this morning. The data came in a bit mixed, but is overall consistent with the 13-week moving average. These numbers are also the first we are getting in the holiday season, which is known as a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-november-recap-december-outlook">volatile period</a>.&nbsp;



Initial jobless claims rose in the week ended Nov. 30, coming in at 224,000. This was a bit higher than analysts’ expectations of 215,000+ from the week prior, which was upwardly revised to 217,500.&nbsp;



States with the biggest increases in initial claims include Pennsylvania and Kentucky.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The overall 13-week moving average for initial claims is 226,000.&nbsp;



Continuing claims eased a bit from 1.9 million a week prior to 1.87 million last week. Analysts had expected no change.&nbsp;



Expectations for a 25-basis point interest rate cut later this month eased on the report. Fed funds futures markets now price in a 29.9% chance of Fed officials leaving interest rates unchanged, up from 21.9% on Wednesday.&nbsp;



Stocks dipped a bit following the release, before paring gains later in the session. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading relatively flat midway through Thursday’s session, down 0.04% and 0.06%, respectively, at 2 pm ET.&nbsp;



Bitcoin meanwhile hovered in the $101,000 range this afternoon, sustaining its rally sparked Tuesday evening when the largest cryptocurrency <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">broke $100,000</a> for the first time ever. More on that, and what we can expect next, below.&nbsp;



We’ll need to see more Goldilocks data tomorrow in the November jobs report, which will be released at 8:30 am ET.



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Initial jobless claims rise during last week of November, lowers rate cut odds 

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Solana Foundation’s head of strategy Austin Federa announced he would be departing the nonprofit to found DoubleZero, a network of fiber and subsea cables meant to establish a faster and more performant “new internet.”



Federa had been at Solana Labs and Foundation for nearly four years, becoming one of Solana’s more recognizable public figures. He’s now founding DoubleZero — which will start by supporting Solana — alongside cofounders Mateo Ward and Andrew McConnell. Jito CEO Lucas Bruder called the startup “the most interesting experiment in crypto.”



DoubleZero is an ambitious and potentially category-defining project, but I think it could be thought of for now as decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) for the internet. Individuals in the DoubleZero network contribute fiber optic links, which are basically cables that transmit data with light pulses, to a network that can filter out data before it gets to blockchain validators and RPCs. This all seems like it will be incentivized with a native token and enforced with proof-of-stake slashing, but DoubleZero’s <a href="https://doublezero.xyz/whitepaper.pdf">white paper</a> does not explicitly mention what form its “rewards” might take.



Where will DoubleZero find all this unused fiberoptic cable, you might ask? The project’s white paper argues that there is “substantial” spare fiber in the world. This comes from the hundreds of terabits per second modern fiber can handle, “dark fiber” that has been installed but sits unused, and enterprises purchasing more fiber capacity than they need to prepare for doomsday scenarios.&nbsp;



If all this unused fiber joined DoubleZero’s rewards-based network, it could build a faster new internet just with existing real-world infrastructure.&nbsp;



Part of the impetus to create DoubleZero is that fast blockchains like Solana aren’t slowed down by how nice of hardware the blockchain’s software is being run on — they’re kneecapped by the fact that blockchain data is sent over the public internet where it is mixed with web traffic that doesn’t need to run as fast as a blockchain.



As things stand, blockchain validators have to use some of their computing resources to filter out spam and deduplicate transactions. DoubleZero and its network of fiberoptic links will look to be a “common shield” for local validators, so all of their resources can go toward building and verifying blocks.



DoubleZero’s white paper says layer-1 blockchains are the best use case for the network, but outside of blockchain, content delivery networks, games, large language models, and enterprises could all benefit.&nbsp;



In recent weeks, Solana’s community has taken up that mantra of increasing bandwidth and reducing latency. To paraphrase Michael Jordan, Federa and his cofounders took that personally.



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Solana Foundation exec departs for ‘the most interesting experiment in crypto’

Felix Jauvin

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There’s a lot of confusion about why the Fed might still be cutting rates right now despite what looks to be an economy that is doing pretty well.&nbsp;



The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently forecasting a 3.3% real GDP growth rate for Q4, and it looks to be accelerating:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdtl9J7nJ-Chd9dEqha9r-eF8RhHlDjUFED-ewSIHa9O0DaG1Ic_F5dgASB4SJ80kFgJeTDckpxIhymQvBisYmIu3JpBa_F08RVNdjuymDiZRd6-9C3ieyN0w03vsL-Dyn3eRJebA?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Further, it looks like inflation is beginning to rebound and has bottomed:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdFa_llnSTH6ux-L1_BCid8_SqM6HPI5sdgZDabh21eEudPG4Sndxm1MPZB9L_WoiGTb--lEbmxljH1JzEul1i4W6KehjTuCBZDzdOLMf1at8BuqEKPgurZvnjgYIyVHlfLrLKV?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Also, financial conditions are nearly as loose as they were during the frothy 2021 era: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeAXpvpU9yaAgkFmak91nvN0rFNmNEIZ5P7IOw6t6KgZCK_O_hECeR2kH8WkLD0WopSRljnSyR3MxpDEPb7nYxvzyNELXewar6MQa8jCjfDeTTmLUuZmUZquXQA96_-apzxn5OP?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" width="624" height="371">



Despite all these metrics characterizing an economy that is doing very well, the FOMC is still sitting at a 70% odds of cutting rates this December. This has many people perplexed as to why they would still cut.



The simple reason is that the committee had already guided the market toward them cutting in December. They would hate to rock the boat, reverse that guidance and skip when the forward curve has already assumed they likely will.



The more interesting answer resides in the rationale behind why they guided toward this cut in the first place. It has to do with r* — the neutral interest rate — and how the Fed measures it.



Because r* cannot be directly measured within the economy, policymakers instead rely on models that do their best attempt at estimating it. There are currently two models well-suited for this job: the Lubik model and the Williams model.&nbsp;



The Lubik model is more dynamic and based on a statistical model approach, whereas the Williams model is based on more traditional macroeconomic models that are less sensitive to major shifts in the drivers of r*.



Considering that the creator of the Williams model — John Williams — is the current NY Fed president, this model is weighted more heavily within the confines of the Fed compared to the Lubik model.&nbsp;



As we can see in the chart below, the Lubik model has picked up a significant uptick in r*, whereas the Wiliams model remains at a secular low.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd8vdlQvAUf42gzfRjIKKAwAa5t4YkztvekmMm50HqmCup8AVBP5mLJ1-x2uxRQHTd48xOLNZ9xDEyH0V5Z7MeIcALguJ4zukCVlV4b-tlYpq7g-P3aQnpJg976cT6ZJXvhutMf-Q?key=qAf1CRvedcywTe8jLwyvg6z0" alt=""/></figure>



Because of this adherence to the Williams model, the FOMC continues to strongly believe monetary policy is very restrictive, and that they could easily cut to 4% and remain restrictive.&nbsp;



However, if we use the Lubik model instead, there’s an argument to be made that monetary policy is already at neutral (at a bare minimum).&nbsp;



Empirically (as observed in the charts at the beginning of this piece), market signals are firing off all over the place that we are in a very accommodative environment from a policy perspective. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume the Williams model is incorrect when compared to what we’re experiencing in markets and the economy right now.&nbsp;



There’s been a lot of talk from FOMC members lately around where they believe neutral might be. This suggests members might be rethinking their adherence to the Williams model. Some FOMC members, such as Austan Goolsbee, are even preferring to “feel their way” to neutral. See how the economy reacts, and go from there.&nbsp;



Considering how markets across the board continue to hit all-time highs on a daily basis, it’s hard to make the argument that we’re restrictive. Regardless, a cut in December still looks to be the base case as the FOMC remains anchored to bureaucratic inertia with respect to the Williams model.



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Is the Fed making a policy mistake?

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It seems fitting that bitcoin’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">rise above $103,000</a> came in the final month of a groundbreaking year for the asset.



You already know about the first US spot bitcoin ETFs in January and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-impacts-since-election-outcome">Trump’s election win</a> a month ago. Then there was the president-elect’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">selection</a> this week of Paul Atkins as SEC chair (who many deem to be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">a crypto advocate</a>). And Fed Chair Jerome Powell even recently compared bitcoin <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpfdHNiuf2s">to gold</a>.&nbsp;



The fact that gold’s market cap is still nine times larger than bitcoin’s (about $18T to $2T) “should offer additional insight into how much more room there is for bitcoin to grow from current levels,&#8221; LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in an email.&nbsp;



Momentum driving BTC past the psychological six-figure price mark can beget more momentum — albeit not without volatility.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“It not only validates the long-term belief of the community but also signals to institutions, corporations, sovereign funds, skeptics and sidelined investors alike that bitcoin has entered a new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/matt-hougan-crypto-reputational-risk">phase of adoption</a> and recognition as a store of value and a transformative asset class,” according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.&nbsp;



Bitcoin had dipped to about $99,000 by 3 pm ET on Thursday.



A key next target is $110,000, Mena added, citing Deribit data that shows the majority of Jan. 31, 2025 call option contract volume is concentrated at that price level.



Industry watchers have also pointed to BTC’s history of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-drawdowns">price swings</a> to temper mania from the most bullish of bulls.&nbsp;



After the early years of bitcoin, the road to $100,000 included a rise to $18,000 in 2017 followed by a plummet to around $4,000 the following year. A surge to nearly $70,000 in late-2021 was followed by a severe downward move to $16,000 in 2022.



While optimism is high that the Trump Administration and a crypto-friendly Congress will help spur <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokens-new-era-crypto-regulation">crypto regulatory</a> and legislative <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mike-novogratz-on-trump-presidency">clarity</a>, Nansen principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere said those might not pan out as expected. 



He said: “Once we witness the first <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">policies and decisions</a> from the Trump Administration in January, there could be some risk of disappointed expectations, especially if the agenda prioritizes <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-trump-potential-tariff-policies">tariff</a> and immigration-related policies first.”



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BTC’s road to $100K, and what to expect next 

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Coffeezilla: “This is one of the most miserable, horrible launches I’ve ever seen in my life…” Haliey Welch: “Okay, then why the fuck are you on then?”



That snippet came from last night’s <a href="https://x.com/DramaAlert/status/1864585278469390809">X Spaces</a> for the HAWK memecoin launch by Haliey Welch, aka “The Hawk Tuah Girl.”



The majority of memecoin launches end up going nowhere, but none have cratered quite so quickly as HAWK.



In what might be the fastest rug pull of all time, HAWK launched yesterday to a $490 million market cap, and then nuked to a $64 million market cap within 30 minutes.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdre8TJdx9EG8TtmAsKfjfMc6Wsk36mtUVxCUSubfDLyfkcnbfnOtpTMDgLAIXoTJctwNnDzBqz8u_KDuJShvqIPLHBQVrRtsnRWqdby_3WWNC4oRBO6D2rfPZG6rXJl7TIdhlw4w?key=EZUQprTJ8v19R2pI1pheibS2" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://dexscreener.com/solana/exygvxvrvujjryo65vyuhlaccxhwyztkqa7jxqit2tvr">Dexscreener</a></figcaption></figure>



HAWK has since dumped to a $27 million market cap at time of writing.



HAWK’s <a href="https://x.com/HalieyWelchX/status/1864448384326881713">tokenomics</a> might be the most egregious yet: Only 2% was allocated to the public with a 17% “Strategic Allocation” for KOLs that were fully unlocked on token generation.



Welch has publicly <a href="https://x.com/HalieyWelchX/status/1864448384326881713">claimed</a> that the internal team did not sell any tokens, but insiders were caught onchain doing so. According to <a href="https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/1864439521523196046">Bubblemaps</a>, 96% of the token supply was in a related cluster.



“Straight Tuah Prison” (<a href="https://dexscreener.com/solana/apyqx9q3fwhkxnvsa7vt8ib4agm38iamkiacpsnbvyzy">TUAH</a>), an alternative memecoin, launched as a response to the disaster. It has since climbed to a $12.3 million market cap. Maybe something good will come out of this after all.



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