Neon

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Before we get into the groove and craziness of 2025, I want to reflect on my favorite interviews and biggest takeaways of 2024.



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Warren Mosler is the father and pioneer of the modern monetary theory (MMT) movement, and has very unique views compared to traditional macroeconomic thinking. I had him on the show as I wanted to understand his views of the current economic environment.&nbsp;



One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it. When debt levels become as elevated as they are, interest payments made to Treasury holders act as income.&nbsp;



Therefore, to Warren, for inflation to come down the Fed needs to actually cut rates.



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Jeff Park is the head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise and an absolute powerhouse on all things options and derivatives. We sat down right as options on the US spot bitcoin ETFs <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-cboe-nyse-options-btc-etfs">started trading</a> and had a fascinating 201-level discussion.



One of the biggest takeaways: Because crypto options marketplaces like Deribit operate 24/7 and ETF options hew to standard market hours, prices on each marketplace should actually be different. When there is more time for the option to trade (Theta), the probability of it expiring in the money is higher — which comes with a higher price for the option.



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Dr. Stephen Miran is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and worked at the US Treasury during the last Trump Administration. He’s a leading academic on the potential economic impact of Trump’s incoming trade policies, namely around <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-trump-potential-tariff-policies">tariffs</a>.&nbsp;



I had Stephen on the show for an exclusive launch interview for his latest paper, in which he unpacked the mechanical impacts of what tariffs could do to the US economy. He highlighted them as a necessary tool to help the US alleviate symptoms of what he calls the Triffin’s Dilemma — the associated residual effects of what happens when a country’s money is the global reserve currency.



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George Robertson is a veteran macro trader and a true maven.&nbsp; He has a unique view on what drives the economy and markets. The core of his revolutionary view: The Fed has no actual impact on the economy in terms of its mechanical policy implementations; it&#8217;s almost entirely psychological.&nbsp;



These episodes were my favorite because each guest held unorthodox views that they developed independently to become leading thinkers within their domains.&nbsp;



As we head into another year of wicked episodes on Forward Guidance, I encourage you to revisit some of these truly excellent podcasts!



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Best of the best: Top 2024 lessons from Forward Guidance

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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If I am to believe AI agents are the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-welcomes-ai-overlords">next big thing</a>, here’s what I’d like it to minimally do:



“Dear AI agent, take control of my wallet and generate a minimum 30% APY while maintaining a conservative risk profile to avoid excessive exposure.”



30% is not a lot in crypto terms, but it’s enough to beat the S&amp;P 500. Because I specified “conservative,” that agent would presumably err on the side of caution and only interact with DeFi smart contracts that have been battle-tested for at least a year.



For instance, the agent might look to Pendle to lock my capital in a PT yield trade involving only “blue-chip” protocols like Ethena (USDe) or Aave (GHO), while avoiding new risky collateral like USUAL (<a href="https://app.pendle.finance/trade/markets/0xb9b7840ec34094ce1269c38ba7a6ac7407f9c4e3/swap?view=pt&amp;chain=ethereum">currently 147%</a>).



Since I specified “30% APY,” the agent would presumably avoid a low yield PT like stETH (currently <a href="https://app.pendle.finance/trade/markets/0xc374f7ec85f8c7de3207a10bb1978ba104bda3b2/swap?view=pt&amp;chain=ethereum">3.2%</a>).



The agent may alternatively rationalize that given a bull market year, ETH would see a price point high of $5k, a 44% increase from today’s price. Rather than yield farming, the agent would simply invest my money into ETH and maybe stake it on Lido for a risk-free yield of 3%.



Depending on market volatility and black swans that may crater the price of ETH, the agent should be quick enough to swap it back to a stablecoin in a timely fashion.



Because I told the agent “conservative,” airdrop farming should strictly be out of the question given the long window of time between points farming and the projects’ actual airdrop (too much risk!).



This isn’t an unreasonable benchmark — “Non-KYC AI agents on blockchain rails” are, after all, the rallying cry Crypto Twitter has coalesced around.



As far as I can tell though, there isn’t a reliable way for AI agents to navigate DeFi yet (Frax Finance’s <a href="https://iqai.com/">IQ AI</a> project may be one).



As Haseeb Qureshi from Dragonfly Capital put it on a recent Steady Lads <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbEAc67X_2A">podcast</a>, AI agents right now are more akin to “Wizard of Oz”-style agents that lack long-term plans, and which aren’t making money transfers to accomplish goals.



Instead, what we do find amid the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-the-ai-agent-meta">AI-crypto hysteria</a> are AI-branded memecoins, AI virtual chatbots and lots of infrastructural plays.



We already have plenty of memecoins, and slapping “AI” on is just marketing. The virtual chatbots like Luna already exist in Web2, and introducing a token doesn&#8217;t make it particularly new.



The infrastructural frenzy around <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-the-ai-agent-meta">launchpads and frameworks</a> is probably necessary, but there’s still a ways to go before we see actual agentic and autonomous agents.



The closest we have to “utility-based” agents right now are ones that scrape social media data to produce an alpha feed, such as aixbt.



I realize this entire train of thought is probably missing the point, which is that the biggest narrative in what looks to be the most bullish year in crypto is going to see “number go up” regardless.



What AI agents still seem to lack, however, is plausible credibility for why the unthinking investor can wholeheartedly buy into their narrative.



NFTs in 2020, for instance, had that veneer of legitimacy. The story that propelled NFTs — immutable art pieces — into the mainstream was a stretch, but all the technological pieces were in place. For AI agents, the distance between meme and reality is still too wide.



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AI agents are not agentic

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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It’s honestly difficult to recap the biggest narratives of 2024 simply because there were so many, but if I were to engage in that exercise then I’d have to say that tokenization — and BlackRock’s grand entrance into crypto — would high be on the list.&nbsp;



Tokenized treasurys currently sit around $4 billion, according to RWA.xyz, making up a small portion of the RWA pie. Currently, total RWA onchain (excluding stablecoins) tops $15.2 billion. 



However, Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, thinks that you could realistically cut out some of the tokenization efforts that took place on private chains that no one’s using, which might drop the total value to around $5 billion.



Both VanEck and Bitwise think that the RWA space could grow to $50 billion — a number Domingo believes is within reach.&nbsp;



“If you look at the pace that we&#8217;re gonna grow, the Treasury space, that, by itself, should grow to several billion dollars next year, because stablecoins are at $200 billion now. So that should be $10 to $20 billion in treasuries. And then you start adding some of the new products we&#8217;re gonna roll out … rolling integrations with DeFi, etc. I think aggregating the industry … should get to $50 billion within the next 12 to 18 months, and hopefully, we will maintain our 20% [to] 25% market share as the leader of the industry,” Domingo said.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXepKyoorljBwzuB2DVXM_LCmYEPe3lhGDxbz5Aa9VCpOcc8aTh37PyHTB3Gc76npRpJq-4gDDCZGeYkzkberySrK8DFO7DFTNOjrygA56_RAgOpil6dTTmD6G8436Xw0ab2VR9yfw?key=GWxgBr4s90_BqfzY10_jT82j" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A look at the biggest tokenized treasurys</figcaption></figure>



As for the success this year, Domingo thinks that tokenization hit the mainstream not only because of bigwigs entering the space, but also because there was “utility of the tokens.”



“We started with simple features like peer-to-peer transferability, so faster transferability that makes the asset more useful onchain, like the use cases we&#8217;ve been working on — using BUIDL as collateral — et cetera. That is all predicated on being able to move the security onchain efficiently [and] the liquidity through some redemptions with stablecoins, etc,” he explained.



Obviously, Domingo doesn’t think that tokenization’s moment in the spotlight is a one-and-done affair. He’s a pretty firm believer that we’ll continue to see the RWA space adapt and evolve throughout the next year.&nbsp;



For Domingo, the big catch is the aforementioned integration with DeFi, which is what Securitize is exploring as its next venture.&nbsp;



“That’s going to make the industry grow 10x. That’s my personal view,” he told me. But it’ll be good for both RWA and DeFi, which will be able to feed off of each other’s success.



When it comes to the challenges of the next year, it’s going to be two-fold for Securitize.



First, Domingo semi-jokingly told me he has to stop being a bottleneck (which, he added, was why Securitize was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ex-grayscale-ceo-tokenization-shift">thrilled to bring on</a> Michael Sonnenshein late last year) and then it’s all about talent acquisition.&nbsp;



Domingo said that hiring in a bull market is very “challenging” because of the amount of competition in the space but it’s not a bad problem to have, given that the regulatory overhang is no longer a big concern once we transition to this next administration.&nbsp;



Forget the year of the snake — this is the year of tokenization.



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RWA integration with DeFi could grow the market ‘10x,’ Securitize CEO says

Jack Kubinec

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I’m putting my crystal ball abilities to the test this year.&nbsp;



As we turn the page on 2024, here are five Solana predictions for 2025:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Elon Musk’s X will debut a native Solana token</h2>



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It’s time. When Elon Musk bought Twitter in 2022, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-faithfuls-await-elon-musks-blockchain-plans-for-twitter">crypto fans speculated</a> that the dogecoin-loving billionaire would integrate crypto into the social media platform. Those predictions have so far been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/elon-musk-crypto-dogecoin">quashed by Musk</a>, but with the incoming Trump administration expected to loosen US crypto regulations and bring crypto-friendly voices to the table, I think an X token is finally on the way.&nbsp;



“Crypto Twitter” is still a vibrant community, so there would be demand for such a token, and Musk’s other companies are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tesla-keeps-holding-184m-worth-of-digital-assets-on-its-balance-sheet">known to hold crypto</a> on their balance sheets. X Premium users could pay for their subscriptions using the X token, which Musk could cheaply on- and off-ramp with help from his stablecoin <a href="https://cryptoslate.com/elon-musks-spacex-uses-stablecoins-to-hedge-against-foreign-exchange-risks/">buddies</a> over at Bridge. Solana has the high throughput and low transaction fees to make this all feasible.&nbsp;



To sweeten the deal, Solana Blinks could make ecommerce happen natively on X without users leaving the app — a feature from which TikTok recently found <a href="https://www.morningbrew.com/stories/2024/12/03/is-tiktok-an-emerging-e-commerce-behemoth">success</a>. If X wants to be an everything app, why wouldn’t that moniker extend to currency too?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Solana’s stablecoin market cap will quadruple</h2>



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Solana’s onchain volume and demand woke up in a major way in 2024, but stablecoins stayed sleepy. The blockchain currently houses roughly $5 billion in stables, which ranks it fifth among blockchains behind Ethereum, Tron, BSC, and Arbitrum, according to DeFiLlama.&nbsp;



This is partly because Solana transactions often don’t require stablecoin pairs for actions like memecoin trading, but stables can play an important role in other use cases like DePIN or payments. With <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-stablecoin-infra-provider">startups like Perena</a> and Lulo focused on growing the Solana stablecoin pie and issuers like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paypal-pyusd-stablecoin-live-on-solana">PayPal</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sky-deploys-stablecoin-on-solana">Sky launching</a> on the chain, Solana could be primed for major growth in 2024.



I think Solana’s stablecoin market cap will cross $20 billion by the end of the year, which equates to a 4x increase from its current levels. That would still leave Solana far behind Ethereum, which holds some $110 billion in stablecoins at the moment.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Solana ETFs will be approved but will underperform ETH</h2>



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Ok, time for some cold water: I’m not bullish on solana ETFs.&nbsp;



I think solana funds are likely to be approved this year as a Paul Atkins-led SEC takes a less stringent stance on defining cryptoassets as securities, but I don’t think SOL ETFs are likely to find all that much demand.&nbsp;



Crypto ETFs’ raison d&#8217;etre is giving investors regulated access to crypto within things like brokerage accounts. With bitcoin, this makes sense. Its “digital gold” narrative is sticky, it is by far the largest crypto, and curious boomers could be interested in allocating 1% of their portfolios to see where things go. Ether ETFs have done okay partly due to the novelty of the products, but it’s been a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eoy-ether-etf-check-in">little harder to sell</a> investors on them.&nbsp;



Solana is more degen and less boomer than either BTC or ETH. A lot of SOL buyers seem to be more likely to onboard via Phantom or Coinbase than with their retirement accounts. By the time SOL ETFs get approved, BTC/ETH combo, Litecoin, HBAR, and possibly XRP will all also have ETFs, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1869064627591496170">said</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Look, all I’m saying is there’s a reason BlackRock and Fidelity are yet to file for SOL ETFs. ETH ETFs have <a href="https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot?from=moved">seen</a> $35 billion in inflows in their first five months of trading. I expect SOL ETFs will have fewer inflows over their first five months.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. Pump.fun won’t collect the most fees among memecoin platforms</h2>



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One of the most interesting stories to watch in Solanaland this year has been the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-pump-dot-fun-memecoin">unprecedented rise</a> of memecoin launchpad pump.fun. Since launching in early 2024, pump has already crossed $330 million in revenue. Multiple times, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/moonshot-vertical-integration-memecoins">purportedly-better</a> versions of pump.fun have come out, but no one has been able to snatch the crown in the memecoin sector.



But all good things must end, and I think pump.fun will be passed by another app this year. Speculative platforms tend to have a short shelf life in crypto — just ask the investors who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/business/opensea-13-billion-valuation-venture-funding.html">valued</a> OpenSea at $13.3 billion in 2022.&nbsp;



I think memecoins will continue to be a very large contributor to Solana’s onchain volumes this year, but I don’t think the majority of that volume will play out on pump.fun. If I had to guess, I’d say the heir apparent will be something AI-related.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Solana will not experience a major outage</h2>



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Solana has experienced a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-downtime-post-mortem">number of outages</a> in its four-year lifetime. This might be naive of me, but I don’t think it will add another outage to that ledger in 2025.&nbsp;



This is a bold take because Firedancer, a fully unique Solana client, is set to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-firedancer-testnet">take its training wheels off</a> and greatly increase Solana’s throughput this year. This will create a lot of unseen potential risk vectors that could bring the chain down.&nbsp;



But Solana’s frequency of outages has fallen over the past two years, presumably as the network’s developers learned from previous mistakes. The Solana Labs spin-off Anza recently <a href="https://www.anza.xyz/blog/strengthening-solana-the-invalidator-team">created</a> an invalidator team meant to stress test the network. Plus, Jump’s Firedancer client took years to build, and the rollout has taken place over multiple phases.&nbsp;



What’s another outage-less 12 months?



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Lightspeed’s 5 predictions for Solana in 2025

Casey Wagner

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Happy New Year from the Forward Guidance team! We launched this newsletter in 2024 and are excited to continue delivering our readers macro and crypto insights in 2025.&nbsp;



As we head into Q1, let’s take a look at where markets could be headed next.&nbsp;



After getting <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-reaction-to-fed-rate-cut">snubbed</a> of a Santa rally at the end of December, Wall Street may be due for a bump in January. The so-called “January effect” is not a sure thing, but it has happened.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500 in January 2023 had a 5.8% return for the month. The index gained 2.12% during the first month of 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has also been in the green for the last two Januaries, returning 1.95% in 2024 and 9.68% in 2023.&nbsp;



But 2025 brings a new —&nbsp;well, old —&nbsp;administration to the White House, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/congress-in-final-weeks-of-session">Republican-majority</a> Congress and a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-dovish-hawkish-2024-conduct">slower</a> rate-cutting pace from the Fed. It’s a situation ripe for volatility, both in equities and crypto markets.&nbsp;



In January 2017 (when Trump was inaugurated the first time), the S&amp;P 500 had a 1.21% monthly return and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.49%. Republican wins are generally followed by a boost in stocks (remember what we saw last November?), so keep that in mind.&nbsp;



Coming up: The next US employment report coming out on Jan. 10, which should give us more clarity on where central bankers may send interest rates.&nbsp;



As of yesterday, the odds of the FOMC holding interest rates steady later this month sat at 89%, according to CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">data</a>.&nbsp;



On the crypto front, uncertainty is just as high.&nbsp;



The euphoria from November <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2024-eoy-sleepy-market-action">has eased</a>, and it seems like investors are in a holding pattern waiting to see if Trump comes through on his big <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-lenient-crypto-regulation">industry promises</a>. Leadership <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">changes</a> at the SEC, plus <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-crenshaw-confirmation-vote-cancelled">three new</a> commissioners, could be a major catalyst. Any movement in Congress on a revised <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fit21-crypto-bill-advances-to-senate">FIT21 bill</a> (or a newly introduced bitcoin strategic reserve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">bill</a>) would likely have a similar effect.&nbsp;



But — as I’m telling my friends and family who’ve asked me countless times over the holidays — no one really knows what’s going to happen, with bitcoin or otherwise.&nbsp;



Buckle up, because I’m certain we’re in for an eventful 2025.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Could ‘January effect’ lift markets?

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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One word might be enough to sum up crypto investing in 2025, according to Franklin Templeton’s Roger Bayston.



Diversification.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The asset management titan, alongside competitors, launched bitcoin and ether ETFs last January and July, respectively. The SEC earlier this month approved 19b-4s for crypto index funds (from Franklin and Hashdex) that would hold both assets — and potentially other coins in the future.&nbsp;



“It feels like ETF legal staffs will be busy in the first part of the year,” Bayston, the firm’s digital assets lead, told me. “And I think the story about blockchain and its utility — whether it’s bitcoin as a store of value or these composable chains — is what’s going to be extended in 2025.”



We’ve seen some spot crypto ETF filings focused on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">solana</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/xrp-etf-contingent-on-election-and-sec-appeal">XRP</a>. There is optimism a new SEC administration could be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">friendlier</a> to such plans, though there are no regulated futures markets for those assets, which the agency <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">wanted to see</a> for BTC and ETH.



David Mann, Franklin Templeton’s head of ETF product &amp; capital markets, said his division chats with Roger’s digital assets team to figure out which other assets are exciting (and why). Such convos help guide the product path. 



Franklin Templeton’s research team continues to evaluate crypto assets like the firm has done for public equity markets and credit markets for decades.



“We have opinions for sure,” Bayston said.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While the ETFs are essentially “taking crypto and moving it back to TradFi,” Bayston said, he noted part of boosting adoption is going where clients are comfortable holding it.&nbsp;



Outside of those vehicles though, Franklin Templeton offers an OnChain US Government Money Fund (FOBXX). It had ~$430 million in assets as of Nov. 30. That segment appears <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenization-depends-on-use-cases-benefits">ripe for growth</a>.&nbsp;



“Tokenized money funds can be both a substitute and also a complementary resource to stablecoin users,” Bayston said.&nbsp;



He noted the massive use case for stablecoins as collateral in derivative transactions, for example. FOBXX offers a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-with-yield-franklin-templeton">yield-bearing alternative</a>.



Franklin Templeton launched the tokenized fund in 2021. It enabled peer-to-peer transfers of its shares in April and made FOBXX available on Coinbase’s layer-2 blockchain in October.&nbsp;



The focus for 2025? 



“BENJI has been a US product only,” Bayston told me. “But what you’re going to see right away as we get into the new year…is an expression of BENJI in a global context.”



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Franklin Templeton eyes more ETFs, tokenized fund in 2025

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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As we step into 2025, the rise of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-powerful-defi-potential">Bitcoin DeFi</a>, the acceleration of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/squid-cross-chain-liquidity-protocol">cross-chain</a> interoperability, stablecoin expansion, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-welcomes-ai-overlords">integration</a> of AI and crypto, and the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-potential-shift-enforcement-actions">maturation</a> of regulatory frameworks are all driving anticipation for a bullish year.



The consensus is that technological advances are now poised to deliver real-world utility to the masses, paving the way for broader adoption and innovation.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin’s resurgence in DeFi</h2>



Bitcoin’s role in DeFi is expanding, challenging Ethereum’s dominance, predicts Alisia Painter, COO of Botanix Labs.



“By 2025, we’ll see more Bitcoiners diving into DeFi…Bitcoin DeFi reached $7.5b in TVL by December 2024, highlighting the growing competition and users’ strong desire to bring DeFi back to Bitcoin or leverage their HODL’d bitcoin for staking, re-staking, and other DeFi activities on Bitcoin.” Naturally, she hopes <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/chainlink-integration-bitcoin-l2-spiderchain">Spiderchain</a>, an EVM sidechain built on Bitcoin, stands to benefit from this trend.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Cross-chain interoperability</h2>



The fragmentation of blockchain ecosystems is gradually being resolved through enhanced interoperability frameworks. Jon Kol, co-founder and CEO of Hyperlane, <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/expansion/9861c7a8-4979-11ef-b690-b3dbcd2508c2">predicts that</a> “L2 fragmentation will soon be a thing of the past.”



“Permissionless interoperability bridges will seamlessly connect ecosystems, rendering the old debate obsolete,” Kol said. As these solutions mature, they’re unlocking new opportunities for cross-chain innovation, doing away with the concept of bridging and leading to better, safer user experiences.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stablecoins as the killer app</h2>



Stablecoins are cementing their position as crypto’s most practical use case, with market capitalization projected to surge beyond $3 trillion over the next five years.



Kevin Lehtiniitty, CEO of Borderless, sees this as the dawn <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-new-age-in-2025">of a new era</a>: “2025 will mark the beginning of the payments industry transitioning to fast, cheap and internet-native money through stablecoins.” Their utility in global capital flows, commerce and financial inclusion is driving this growth, making them indispensable for both businesses and consumers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The crypto/AI convergence</h2>



The integration of AI and crypto rails is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-agent-crypto-innovation">gaining traction</a> and spawning multidisciplinary consequences, according to Clara Tsao of the Filecoin Foundation.



“Founders and developers working at this junction now are early, but we can expect to see the overlaps between <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/artificial-intelligence">AI</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/depin">DePIN</a> expanding rapidly in 2025,” Tsao notes.



This convergence addresses persistent challenges in scaling and trust, unlocking new efficiencies in computation and data reliability through blockchain-enabled verifiability.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption</h2>



The incoming US administration and global regulatory initiatives — like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/micar-foreign-stablecoins-advantage-in-europe">MiCA</a> in Europe — are creating a favorable environment for crypto adoption. Eran Barak, CEO of Midnight, posits this “will redefine the regulatory landscape, offering the clarity needed for businesses to innovate.” Change in this area is also expected to further fuel institutional interest, particularly in tokenized real-world assets, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/parafi-2030-predictions-rwas">grew over</a> 60% in 2024 to $13.5 billion.



In sum, as Nick Forster of Derive puts it, “the breakthroughs and advancements of 2025 could very well determine the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry for decades to come.”



Together, technology, regulation and utility are shaping crypto’s evolution from speculative fervor to mainstream financial infrastructure.



Here’s to a profitable, educational and fun 2025!



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2025: Crypto bridges the gap between hype and utility

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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A battle has brewed behind the scenes of tech over the past few years. For power. As in, electricity.



Energy demand from tech giants has skyrocketed due to the AI arms race, to the point that companies are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-ai-data-centers-power-grids/">reportedly</a> facing years-long waits to access local grids.



With the biggest players set to continue their stranglehold on the market, energy is now fertile ground for disruption — perhaps even via DePIN.



That’s what Framework Ventures is betting on. Co-founder Michael Anderson recently told Empire’s Katherine Ross that energy has been a huge focus for the firm over the past six months.



Anderson reasoned that most major narratives in crypto right now are aligned with general consensus — the two most obvious being memecoins and ETFs.



Energy is, on the other hand, fairly non-consensus, and should pair perfectly with DePIN — which has now proven that it can work, according to Anderson.



“But where it hasn&#8217;t lived up to the expectations is on the demand side. You know, [DePIN] is basically building a supply and demand network, where you source supply and then there&#8217;s demand for whatever resource the network provides. And historically, it seems that the supply side has been accomplished, but the demand side has been lacking,” he said.



Peer-to-peer energy startups have already had boom and bust cycles in crypto. Although they generally weren’t positioned under the DePIN umbrella.&nbsp;



Powerledger would be the largest — allowing solar panel owners to sell energy they generate back to the grid. POWR hit an all-time high market cap of about $680 million in 2018 but still trades 80% below that mark.



So much has changed for energy markets since then, and it could be that Powerledger and others like it were simply too early.&nbsp;



Framework has recently backed crypto startups in the energy space including <a href="https://glow.org/blog/what-is-glow">Glow</a> — which aims to greenify energy grids by rewarding solar farm builders with USDC and GLW on Ethereum — and <a href="https://www.daylight.world/">Daylight</a>, a project backed by IoTeX which is similarly working on decentralizing green energy via crypto rewards.



“Energy is the most liquid, fragmented and highly demanded ecosystem that could be registered over a blockchain, and is purpose-built for DePIN,” Anderson said.&nbsp;



“DePIN kind of becomes energy — it&#8217;s sort of like how DeFi becomes financial services. I think that we&#8217;re gonna see that transition become more pronounced next year.”



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Why Framework Ventures is focused on energy DePINs

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Earlier this year, Solana’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-network-congestion-transaction-volume">network congestion</a> created a lot of concern over traders’ ability to land transactions onchain.&nbsp;



Today, traders have a much easier time landing trades, but the concern has refocused on the prices they get while doing so.&nbsp;



Widespread <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sandwich-attack-mev-ethereum">sandwich attacks</a>, whereby sophisticated traders exploit price spreads at the expense of unsophisticated traders, have proven to be a long-running and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sandwich-attacks">tricky-to-solve</a> issue. The Solana swap app and market infrastructure firm DFlow put an interesting new solution on the table when it proposed conditional liquidity, which tasks new market intermediaries with separating toxic from non-toxic order flow.



When a DEX trader tries to swap one cryptocurrency for another, they are quoted a price and allowed to set slippage, which is the percentage that the quoted price can change after the order is submitted. Solana sandwich attackers exploit slippage by front-running transactions to artificially raise the price a few basis points before selling the asset right after at a profit — leaving the user with a worse price. In the aggregate, sandwich attackers can make <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/researcher-encourages-solana-public-mempool">millions per day</a>.&nbsp;



DFlow proposes adding a new class of market participants called segmenters to divide toxic from non-toxic order flow and limit sandwich attacking.&nbsp;



Segmenters, which will initially be chosen by DFlow, sit between users who submit the transactions and the DEXs that receive them, and basically sort good from bad transactions. When DEXs receive these labeled transactions, they can then charge higher fees to sandwichers and lower fees to everyone else.&nbsp;



Conditional liquidity “doesn’t completely solve sandwiching” but can reduce it by charging different rates, DFlow founder Nitesh Nath said. “The magnitude of sandwich reduction is proportional to the difference in the higher rate for toxic flow and the lower rate for non-toxic flow.”&nbsp;



DFlow already <a href="https://x.com/DFlowProtocol/status/1870126515876204892">launched</a> a segmenter called DFlow Aggregator and a conditional liquidity DEX called Clearpool.



Segmenters are meant to create a marketplace for order flow, where the better the prices segmenters achieve for users, the more order flow DEXs and wallets send them. Segmenters make money by collecting some of the price improvement they provide.&nbsp;



“Conditional liquidity aligns the interests of retail traders, DEXs and the network — a win-win-win for all parties involved. We expect conditional liquidity to be one of the big breakout trends of 2025,” JR Reed, partner at DFlow investor Multicoin Capital, said.



Chris Chung, CEO of the Solana swap app Titan, said he believes conditional liquidity could give honest traders better prices, but it could be hard to get DEXs to start accepting the new market structure. DEXs would only start altering their fees if there was sufficient demand for conditional liquidity from the venues where traders are placing orders, but those venues will also want to see DEXs integrate the feature first.&nbsp;



“It becomes a chicken and [egg] problem,” Chung said in a text, adding that the demand question may be partly why DFlow launched its own segmenter and DEX.



Nath told me a “handful” of large wallets and apps have inquired about integrating conditional liquidity, though he declined to say which ones.&nbsp;



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This Solana swap app is trying to make sandwich attacks more costly

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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We’ve heard the “increased adoption” answer plenty when asking industry players about 2025 crypto market <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2025-crypto-industry-predictions">expectations</a>.&nbsp;



Beyond retail, an array of big players particularly want in on BTC, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-appoints-crypto-council-head">forecasted</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-potential-shift-enforcement-actions">regulatory</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-york-state-crypto-regulations">clarity</a> will help fuel that shift, many believe.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Though bitcoin adoption looks different for various investors, BlackRock’s guidance earlier this month gives us a sense of the buying wave that is possible.&nbsp;&nbsp;



During a busy month in which Donald Trump nominated a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">new SEC chair</a> and the Fed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/market-reaction-to-fed-rate-cut">again cut rates</a>, some might have missed the asset management giant’s December “investment perspectives” edition.



A couple weeks back, BlackRock execs <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-zz/literature/whitepaper/bii-investment-perspectives-december-2024.pdf">wrote</a> that the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks (in a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds) each, on average, account for roughly the same share of overall portfolio risk as a 1-2% BTC allocation.



“We think that’s a reasonable range for a bitcoin exposure,” they added.



Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was among those who saw the guidance, reacting as follows:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Slowly and then all at once&#8230; <a href="https://twitter.com/BlackRock?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BlackRock</a> recommending up to a 2% Bitcoin allocation is massive. The world&#39;s largest asset manager now sees <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> alongside tech giants like Apple and Tesla. Institutions are here.&mdash; Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) <a href="https://twitter.com/novogratz/status/1867256095229522375?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 12, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in an X space a week or so later that the news went unnoticed by many.



It was sort of funny, Hougan added — “not just that people missed BlackRock saying you should add bitcoin to a portfolio, but all of a sudden we doubled the allocation.”



Hogan is alluding to the not-uncommon 1% allocation to bitcoin for those who have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/wealth-managers-feel-pressure-bitcoin-etfs">jumped</a> into the space. A March <a href="https://franklintempletonprod.widen.net/s/rzwcnv2drr/dacfp-franklin-templeton-digital-assets-advisor-pulse-survey-final">survey</a> found that of the financial advisers allocating to the space, 15% recommended to clients a 1% allocation. Of those saying they planned to allocate, 23% expected to start with a position of that size.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Many investors Bitwise speaks with opt for a 5% allocation, Hougan added — a level he noted would often get you laughed at a year ago.&nbsp;



“[It’s] not just 2% for a few people at a wealth manager; [it’s] 2% for the base rate for a portfolio across every exposure,” he noted of the BlackRock guidance. “I think it’s really significant, and if you think it’s the end of the story, you’re wrong.”



While US bitcoin ETFs have helped wealth managers <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/advisers-bitcoin-etfs-client-portfolios">wade into crypto</a>, many still haven’t. Then there are the other interested institutions, whether it be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">companies</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve">governments</a> or <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jersey-city-pension-funds-btc-exposure">pension funds</a>. Hougan said as bitcoin volatility goes down in a year or two, perhaps BlackRock will recommend a 5% allocation to BTC.&nbsp;



BlackRock execs indeed note that wider adoption and trading could make BTC’s low correlation with equities more stable — trimming the asset’s contribution to portfolio risk and enabling investors to up their position in it.&nbsp;



“Yet broad adoption could also mean bitcoin loses the structural catalyst for further sizable price rises,” they explain. “The case for a permanent holding may then be less clear-cut and investors may prefer to use it tactically to hedge against specific risks, similar to gold.”



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Sizing up a 2025 adoption wave 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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As we close out a historic year for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, some crypto-related equities are poised to end 2024 well into the green. Here’s a round-up of some of the best performers:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Coinbase&nbsp;</h2>



COIN shares started the year around $156. The stock rallied into the high-$200s in March, coinciding with bitcoin’s run-up to what was then a new all-time high of around $73,000. COIN’s big breakout came in the latter half of the year, though. Shares gained 67% between election night and Nov. 11, a sign investors saw <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">Trump’s win</a> as a major turning point for the industry.&nbsp;



Boutique equity research firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-coin-price-targets">raised</a> its price target for the exchange from $245 to $390 earlier this month. Analysts cited the Trump Administration’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">potential plan</a> to create a strategic <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-strategic-bitcoin-reserve">bitcoin reserve</a> as a positive catalyst for Coinbase’s custody services.&nbsp;



COIN shares were up 58% year to date (to ~$247) at 2 pm ET Tuesday.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">MicroStrategy&nbsp;</h2>



MicroStrategy, an unprofitable business intelligence company, started buying bitcoin back in 2020. Today, the firm has 446,400 BTC (acquired for an average price of $62,428 per coin), and execs say they have no intention of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-btc-purchase-recap">slowing down</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/marathon-buying-btc-momentum">anytime</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-shares-audacious-plan-to-buy-more-bitcoin">soon</a>.&nbsp;



These days, MSTR is essentially a leveraged trade on BTC, and for those who bought shares at the beginning of the year, it’s paid off. The stock has gained more than 60% since Election Day alone.&nbsp;



MSTR shares stood at $290 at 2 pm ET — up 323% in 2024.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Miners Hut 8, Core Scientific&nbsp;</h2>



Bitcoin miner Hut 8 made its public market debut in 2018 at around $17 a share. The stock hit a record high of almost $80 in 2021, a rally analysts attribute to bitcoin’s run and Hut 8’s mining <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hut-8-mining-ceo-interview">operation</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-miners-spending-strategies">expansion</a>.&nbsp;



After shares stalled in 2022 and 2023, Hut 8 saw another surge this year, once again thanks to record-high bitcoin prices and new mining technology. Recent price targets from Cantor Fitzgerald and Craig Hallum are in the mid-$30 range.&nbsp;



HUT shares were up 63% year to date at 2 pm ET Tuesday, just north of $20. 



Up even more is the share price for rival miner Core Scientific, which has increased roughly 300% in 2024.



The company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/core-scientific-relisting-shares-tumble">emerged from bankruptcy</a> in January, relisting on the Nasdaq. Core Scientific’s stock surged to above $7 in June right after inking its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/core-scientific-rejects-coreweave-buyout-bid-after-big-hpc-deal">first hosting deal</a> with cloud provider CoreWeave. CORZ’s share price hovered around $14 on Tuesday afternoon.



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2024’s crypto stock winners

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Marc Andreessen sparks the AI agent rally</h2>



Before there was VIRTUALS, LUNA and FART, there was GOAT, the memecoin inspired by creator Andy Ayrey’s experiment which pitted two Claude AI models in an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-goatse-memecoin">endless chatter</a>.&nbsp;



But it was none other than a16z’s Marc Andreessen, who provided the catalyst to send the entire sector into a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-pushing-memecoins-into-next-phase">frenzied rally</a>, when he sent a $50k “research grant” to Ayrey in July.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">For clarity, I sent a personal $50K no-string-attached unconditional research grant to <a href="https://twitter.com/truth_terminal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@truth_terminal</a> and its creator <a href="https://twitter.com/AndyAyrey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AndyAyrey</a> this summer. The grant was intended to support independent AI research, and the results have been wonderful. However, I have nothing to do with the…&mdash; Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 (@pmarca) <a href="https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1846374466101944629?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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With that, “AI agents on blockchains” was cemented as a go-to bullish talking point, gripping the imaginations of Crypto Twitter like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-the-ai-agent-meta">never before</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">12-year-old rugs memecoin</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf8s7JfOrHnjR8aXRa6IsaTKaPgi_ay4_VMxwc9ae-ftjNGgeDC6dWprQqDjD7EwIwkjCw0GclSZ5eq3_7KnxdIa83k4nhQTTHTuLEUaX6lxJF0rOe-2svPdlWjJXmKQTAEz0fOJw?key=EZmiEedqATiiJZS3Vdg_kSiF" alt=""/></figure>



Attention is the currency of memecoins, and in this case, the rugpull was the catalyst.



In this ironic twist of fate, a 12-year-old middle schooler launched the QUANT memecoin on a live stream, dumped his tokens for a $30k profit and jubilantly flipped off the camera.



The virality of the moment proceeded to pump QUANT to an $84 million market cap in the next two hours, leaving our young comrade with at least $4 million in missed profits.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The SEC’s fake bitcoin ETF approval tweet</h2>



It was a publicity stunt straight off a Hollywood script when the SEC’s official Twitter account was hacked on Jan. 10, 2024 and posted a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-confirms-sim-swap-attack">false announcement</a> of the approval of bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin’s price saw a thousand dollar pump before Gensler officially clarified that its account was compromised.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The <a href="https://twitter.com/SECGov?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SECGov</a> twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.&mdash; Gary Gensler (@GaryGensler) <a href="https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 9, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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In October, the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/fbi-arrests-alabama-man-january-2024-sec-x-hack-spiked-value-bitcoin">hacker</a> turned out to be a 25-year-old American who deployed a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fbi-arrests-alleged-hacker-behind-fake-sec-bitcoin-etf-x-post">SIM swap</a>” technique using an SEC employee’s personal details.



Shortly after the SEC account hack, the bitcoin ETFs was then actually officially <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">approved</a>, ushering in crypto’s first ever market pump before the Bitcoin halving. Never a dull day in crypto.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ansem vs. BitBoy for Crypto Fight Night</h2>



A number of things had to happen for this fight to take place.



Someone had to propose the ridiculous idea of pitting two men — who had absolutely no business being in the ring — against each other in a boxing match. That idea had to evolve into selecting and inviting two of crypto’s most hateable KOLs, and a lot of money had to be spent to make it happen.



Kudos to whoever executed that BD miracle — even Dana White would’ve been proud.



The fight concluded in a lackluster draw, but Bitboy’s use of a much-needed inhaler post-match will forever hold a place in the venerable hall of fame of crypto memes.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfo0kGXyi9uUPxXLYRbXH6nLwyaRDzbdeeT3M94irsQNzAkIVgxFTpIiaT1E7mMF__CiI-5dpvNXc2EnX_FMMt7odCpDq8BPy0JJvN9bq3v50UslEL09c73dIad-agRwVJ2zUT5?key=EZmiEedqATiiJZS3Vdg_kSiF" alt=""/></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SLERF memecoin creator accidentally burns investor money</h2>



What could possibly go wrong with a memecoin investment which involves sending money to an anonymous stranger’s wallet on the internet?



After developer Slerfsol raised an eye-popping $10 million for the SLERF memecoin, he then <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/slerf-investor-lose-money-crypto">accidentally sends</a> $10 million worth of the token supply meant for investors to a burn address, irreversibly destroying it.



“Guys I fucked up. I burned the LP and the tokens that were set aside for the airdrop. Mint authority is already revoked so I can not mint them. There is nothing I can do to fix this. I am so fucking sorry,” Slerfsol tweeted, before jumping on a Twitter Space to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/slerf-investor-lose-money-crypto">apologise</a> profusely amid tears.&nbsp;



But scarcity is good… right? Like QUANT, the hilarity of the moment ironically sent SLERF to a $450 million market cap.



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5 of crypto’s most hilarious moments in 2024

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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If there’s one thing ParaFi wants you to know, it’s that it’s not like other venture capital firms. ParaFi Technologies, the tech infrastructure arm, helps make it stand out against the rest of the pack.&nbsp;



Outside of the well-known venture capital arm, ParaFi Technologies has validator systems running with over $1 billion in assets staked, operating as an Ethereum validator in addition to Aptos and Solana. 



“In a simple sense, we’re an investment and technology firm,” ParaFi partner Kevin Yedid-Botton told me. “We really view ourselves as a public utility provider to the blockchain ecosystem.”



“From a purely business perspective, our revenue is diversified. We&#8217;re not dependent on a single stream of revenue from a single fund. We have our quant fund, we have our venture fund, we have our token fund, and we have these other auxiliary businesses, the GP business and the technology business,” he further explained.&nbsp;



One big benefit — outside of revenue — that Yedid-Botton found in ParaFi’s approach to their multi-business structure is that there’s open communication between the teams, who all have different skill sets. From engineers to legal, ranging from really crypto native to not-so-crypto native, Yedid-Botton thinks the firm created a “unique combination” to “find alpha in ways other firms can’t.”



While a bull market has its own set of difficulties, bear markets are, well, a beast to survive.&nbsp;



Yedid-Botton said that the firm saw assets under management “compression from prices going down but our quant fund was actually flat to up that year.”



Which he noted was an example of “how, despite certain strategies underperforming, because we have a platform of strategies, we&#8217;re able to mute the volatility and the cycles that the market gives you because we&#8217;re diversified.&nbsp;



“Today, that&#8217;s even more true, because even in 2022 to be intellectually honest, we were in the early stage of setting up what the ParaFi of today looks like. We didn&#8217;t have as big of a business” as they do now.



Despite the bearish vibes we saw just last week, though, it’s pretty clear that the bullish cycle isn’t exhausted just yet.&nbsp;



For ParaFi, this next cycle is going to be focused on growing the existing businesses. With over $1 billion in assets under management, Yedid-Botton says ParaFi plans to do over 5x that in the next few years.&nbsp;



“I don&#8217;t see you know why we couldn&#8217;t be at a five to $10 billion-plus easily. And we have a very unique LP based too, that is mostly institutional, mostly family office … from a technology standpoint, as a firm, I think we&#8217;re going to cement [our] flag and say ParaFi is not just a VC firm.”



See, mom, they’re not just an investment and technology firm, they’re a cool investment and technology firm.



Updated Dec. 31, 2024 at 3:17 pm ET: Emphasized distinction between ParaFi and its technology arm. 



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ParaFi Technologies aims to be a ‘public utility provider’ to blockchain ecosystems

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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A curious filing landed on the SEC’s database Friday.&nbsp;



Volatility Shares filed for a Solana futures ETF, which would issue securities that track the price movements of underlying SOL futures contracts trading on a CFTC-registered exchange. There’s a catch though: No such SOL futures contracts exist. ETF analysts nevertheless said the filing bodes well for spot Solana ETFs’ chances of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">being approved</a> sometime in 2025.&nbsp;



“Many believe that with Paul Atkins <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">as SEC chair</a>, a wider range of products will be possible. This filing appears to be a bet on that,” Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in a direct message.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/volatility-shares-eth-futures-etf">Volatility Shares</a> is a leveraged ETF specialist based in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The smallish firm has arguably still helped shift the overton window for regulators: Grayscale <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-lawyers-sec-approval-volatility-shares-etf-lawsuit">argued</a> in 2023 that Volatility Shares’ leveraged bitcoin futures ETF was riskier than Grayscale’s proposed spot bitcoin ETF, so Grayscale’s product should be approved.&nbsp;



Now, Volatility Shares is offering another nonconsensus product in a Solana ETF space that is currently built on making bets. Its Solana futures ETF would give some investors exposure to 2x or the inverse of the daily price change of SOL futures. SOL futures contracts don’t currently trade (bitcoin and ether both have futures trading on the CME), but Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said the filing is probably a good sign that SOL futures are “on the way.”&nbsp;



Regulators could be more likely to approve spot ETFs if they see “a healthy market that&#8217;s liquid enough for SOL to trade,” <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-sol-strategies-rebrand">Sol Strategies CEO</a> Leah Wald said, noting that bitcoin and ether ETFs were only approved by the SEC after CME futures began trading.



Conventional wisdom used to hold that futures were a needed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">prerequisite</a> for crypto ETFs, but that math seemingly changed with the possibility that a Trump electoral victory would end Gary Gensler’s tenure as SEC chair. At least five firms have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sol-etf-filing">already filed</a> for spot SOL ETFs over the past six months despite the lack of futures.



Still, a futures market likely wouldn’t hurt the spot SOL ETFs’ approval odds.



“Alright, I’ve seen enough…Registering formal prediction,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, wrote on X. “Spot solana ETFs will be approved in 2025.”



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Solana gets a leveraged ETF filing for non-existent futures

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Fund issuers continue to dream up crypto ETFs they hope to launch in 2025.&nbsp;



We recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-and-bitcoin-standard-etf-filing">highlighted</a> Bitwise’s filing for a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF to invest in those with at least 1,000 BTC.&nbsp;



Related, Strive Asset Management <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1592900/000159290024002726/strivebitcoinbondetf485a.htm">filed</a> last Thursday for a Bitcoin Bond ETF that would seek exposure to convertible securities issued <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-btc-purchase-recap">by MicroStrategy</a> and others expected to use a big portion of proceeds to buy BTC.&nbsp;



REX Advisers then shared <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1771146/000199937124015836/rex_485apos-122724.htm#:~:text=REX%20Bitcoin%20Corporate%20Treasury%20Convertible%20Bond%20ETF's%20(the%20%E2%80%9CFund%E2%80%9D,bitcoin%20in%20their%20corporate%20treasury.">plans</a> to launch a Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF that (you guessed it) would invest in convertible bonds issued by companies holding the largest crypto asset.



ProShares also plotted three bitcoin-related funds. A so-called S&amp;P 500 Bitcoin ETF would take a long position in S&amp;P 500 stocks and a short US dollar/long bitcoin position. The latter piece is done via bitcoin futures as a way “to currency hedge the US dollar exposure of the S&amp;P 500 stocks position,” a company filing notes.



Two other planned products similarly aim to replicate the performance of bitcoin-denominated investments in Nasdaq 100 stocks and gold.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">ProShares files for S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq-100, &amp; gold ETFs denominated in btc… Basically a long position in underlying stocks or gold &amp; then a short usd/long btc position using btc futures. I’m calling these btc hedged ETFs. Bitcoin is starting to eat tradfi. <a href="https://t.co/6gsThIWvFT">pic.twitter.com/6gsThIWvFT</a>&mdash; Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1872816010908320094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 28, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Perhaps more interestingly, Volatility Shares <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1884021/000121390024113152/ea0225648-01_485apos.htm">filed</a> for an ETF that would invest in solana futures contracts “that trade only on an exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.” These do not yet exist.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The company did not immediately return my request for comment.&nbsp;



Volatility Shares, which offers leveraged BTC and ETH futures ETFs, is also the firm that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/volatility-shares-eth-futures-etf">revived the effort</a> to launch ether futures funds in mid-2023. Though it ditched those plans when many others followed suit by re-filing for similar products, some credited the firm as being crucial to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-consider-ether-futures-etfs">achieving approval</a> of those (and ultimately <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-ether-etf-proposals">spot ETH</a>) products.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Several firms — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-spot-solana-etf-filing">VanEck</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/lightspeed/f1b64556-a070-11ef-be46-37ac229013df">21Shares</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/canary-capital-sol-etf-filing">Canary Capital</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">Bitwise</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-sol-etf-filing">Grayscale</a> — have active filings for spot solana ETFs.&nbsp;



It remains uncertain whether the SEC will deviate from its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">precedent</a> of requiring a regulated futures market — such as those available for BTC and ETH but not for solana — before approving other spot crypto funds.



One thing’s for sure (as <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1872836779243700683">stated</a> on X by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas): “Damn. ETF issuers don’t sleep (or take the week [between] xmas and new years off).”It’s probably a sign there’s plenty more filings to come in the new year.



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Crypto ETF filers hard at work for the holidays

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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There was no shortage of crypto price <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2025-crypto-industry-predictions">predictions</a> this year, particularly (it seemed) in November and December after the election. Some had been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-levels-to-watch">eyeing</a> the $125,000 level for BTC at the end of 2024, while others did warn of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-market-holiday-pullbacks">pullback</a>.



Where we stood at 2:10 pm ET Monday: BTC at ~$94,300 and ETH at ~$3,400.



Bitcoin has dropped roughly 12% since rising above $108,000 on Dec. 17. Ether was trading higher than the $4,000 mark that day, but has fallen 15% since.



21Shares research strategist Matt Mena attributed this in part to the more hawkish vibes from the Fed heading into 2025. The forecast of two rate cuts next year (instead of three) “dampened market sentiment and is a key factor behind the recent downturn in prices for BTC, ETH and other risk assets,” he argued.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Mena also noted that the six-month high in the 10-year Treasury yield further diminishes the appeal of crypto assets, as investors shift toward safer and more predictable returns.



Then there’re those who are locking in gains realized over the year, Mena said. At the same time, others are employing tax-loss harvesting strategies — selling assets that have declined in value to offset capital gains and reduce taxable <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/irs-new-form-crypto-accountants">income</a>.



He and other analysts have called this a “healthy” correction, typical for bitcoin after a significant run-up. If BTC can stay above $85,000, the 21Shares exec told me he thinks it will sustain the uptrend seen in recent months. Otherwise, we could see accelerated selling and further price declines.&nbsp;



“The next major psychological price level to watch is $110,000,” Mena added. “Once bitcoin breaks through this resistance, we could see a swift surge to $120,000, with the potential to target $150,000 by the summer as momentum builds.”



Sergei Gorev, head of risk at YouHodler, predicts the corrective sentiment in the crypto market to persist into 2025. He cited the historical correlation between BTC and the declining M2 money supply as a key factor.



But Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote in a Friday research note that he expects BTC to ultimately reach 20% of gold’s market capitalization in 2025 (it’s currently slightly more than 10%).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeVUeG6rMBFCWBhadnMnqQbdOziE-js4YT4n3xAyqjRnfEbSLOlUdVl3R0uKJKZoH0eQcUqkme4CmpT3TKIKHlDlB2WBUbGBx3CI4mTq4MaVltYQjMI8kZDTlUC2G-6uNdtD7e5?key=iWDKfoDTfKflPburT4vWpoTj" alt=""/></figure>



Thorn thinks BTC will cross $150,000 in the year’s first half — as well as a “test or best” of $185,000 in Q4.“A combination of institutional, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">corporate</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve">nation state adoption</a> will propel bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” the Galaxy research head wrote. “Throughout its existence, bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&amp;P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025.”



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