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Ben Strack

Casey Wagner

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Looking back, ahead after BTC breaches $69K</h2>



We’ve heard the-stage-is-set-for-a-big-bull-run narrative for a while.&nbsp;



The difference now is that bitcoin’s price is actually reflecting that sentiment (or was, at least). And the election, which was not far off before, is even closer now (that’s how time works, wouldn’t ya know).&nbsp;



Bitcoin hit roughly $69,400 over the weekend. It stood at around $67,350 at 2 pm ET Monday — down about 2% on the day but up 7% from a week ago.&nbsp;



So we’re currently about 8% off the all-time high BTC price <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-all-time-high">set in March</a>.&nbsp;



Compass Point analysts Joe Flynn and Ed Groshans, like many others, expect a new price peak for the asset in the coming weeks or months. The reasons they gave in a recent research note are:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Increasing stablecoin liquidity </li>



<li>Tight exchange supply </li>



<li>Front-running of $10 billion of FTX creditor <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-saga-finally-ending">settlements</a> </li>



<li>The extension of the Mt. Gox repayments deadline </li>



<li>Continued demand for bitcoin ETFs</li>
</ul>



On the latter point, the US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are on a six-day <a href="https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/">net inflow streak</a>, during which nearly $2.4 billion has entered the products. The category’s last net inflow run of that length (or longer) was from Sept. 19 to Sept. 30. But you’d have to go back to July for the last time we saw such intense inflows (nearly $3 billion between July 5 and July 22).&nbsp;



The latest capital entering these ETFs come amid what CoinShares research head James Butterfill called “growing expectations of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-republican-sweep-markets">Republican victory</a> in the upcoming US elections.”



Polymarket, as of about three weeks ago, showed a roughly 50-50 split in terms of the projected presidential winner. Now, about 62% are <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1729552142837">betting on Trump</a>, though Casey <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-polymarket-election-manipulation">mentioned on Friday</a> how four accounts recently pouring more than $30 million into Trump bets have impacted those figures.&nbsp;



New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html">polling</a>, as of this morning, shows a much tighter picture. Leads by Trump and Harris amount to less than one percentage point in battleground states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. The polling data depicts Trump with a slightly larger edge in Georgia and Arizona.



As many look to who will take the White House, Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal <a href="https://x.com/strack_ben/status/1844047834166992937">reminded us</a> at Permissionless last week that the makeup of Congress could also be crucial for crypto regulatory progress.



The Compass Point analysts wrote in mid-September they believe a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-lummis-scott-congress-crypto-legislation">Republican sweep</a> is the most likely outcome. Ron Hammond, director of government relations at Blockchain Association, told me earlier this month that a divided Congress could hinder Trump’s ability to deliver on his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/harris-trump-crypto-stances-coinbase">crypto-related promises</a>.&nbsp;



“As much as [Trump] can say he wants market structure legislation or he wants to protect self-custody, a lot of that stuff’s got to be enshrined through legislation,” Hammond said. “He has to work with Congress to get that over the finish line, and if it’s a Democratic House, that’s very tough to do.”



And as we talk about possible new all-time highs for what many deem to be the digital form of gold, the real precious metal hit an <a href="https://fortune.com/2024/10/21/gold-soars-to-record-high-on-middle-east-jitters-u-s-election/">all-time high</a> at about $2,740 per ounce on Monday.



Analysts have noted that safe-haven assets are in demand as conflict continues in the Middle East and concerns about a global growth slowdown persist.



You may remember it was BlackRock CEO Larry Fink who attributed some of an October 2023 bitcoin price rally to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf-rumors">“a flight to quality”</a> during geopolitical tensions.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s CIO of ETF and index investments, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-crypto-etfs-permissionless">more recently noted</a> during Blockworks’ Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City that interest in a slew of alternatives picks up during times of war and changes to political and economic regimes.



“Clearly bitcoin is a risky asset just measured based on price volatility,” Cohen said. “But when you have major risk events in markets, one might argue that, a lot of times, those are triggered by events that should actually potentially be net positive for bitcoin.”



So some more clarity around a potential catalyst (the election) will come in 15 days. But, per usual for us crypto/macro/finance journalists, there are plenty of other things to keep tabs on.



— Ben Strack



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">$1.1 billion</h3>



The reported value of Stripe’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stripe-bridge-acquisition-stablecoin-infrastructure">acquisition</a> of stablecoin platform Bridge, <a href="https://x.com/arrington/status/1848060479727435967">according to</a> TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington.



Neither Stripe nor Bridge immediately confirmed that specific figure to Blockworks. But what’s clear now is the deal is set to close in the coming months (subject to regulatory approvals), the companies revealed Monday.



In an X <a href="https://x.com/patrickc/status/1848393059559502177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1848393059559502177%7Ctwgr%5Ee127f5ddad88968773ccc402a00a3b2d3c00a3d7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fblockworks.co%2Fnews%2Fstripe-bridge-acquisition-stablecoin-infrastructure">post</a> about the deal, Stripe CEO Patrick Collison called stablecoins “room-temperature superconductors for financial services.” He added: “Stripe is going to build the world’s best stablecoin infrastructure.”&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Earnings season continues&nbsp;</h2>



Earnings season continues this week after the first batch of reports showed, on balance, solid numbers. LSEG data shows that more than 80% of the companies that have reported so far have beat estimates.&nbsp;



Here are the highlights from Q3 earnings reports so far:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Bank results were solid. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs each beat expectations. We did see an increase in money that major players are setting aside for credit losses though, which is generally a negative leading indicator. JPMorgan put away $3.1 billion — more than double the amount it earmarked in Q3 2023. </li>



<li>Netflix also surprised analysts, with last quarter’s revenue coming in at $9.83 billion vs. the expected $9.78 billion. Earnings per share also beat at $5.40 compared to the anticipated $5.16. </li>



<li>On the other hand, although semiconductor company ASML showed year-over-year revenue growth, its forecasts for future growth are limited. The fact that ASML’s report was unexpectedly published a day early during trading hours certainly didn’t help its share price, either. If you’ll remember last week, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">we wrote about</a> semiconductor demand as a leading indicator for how other companies will perform, so it’s an area to watch. </li>
</ul>



On tap this week are big names including Tesla, IBM and Thermo Fisher Scientific. More positive news on the earnings front will certainly not be a bad thing, but as Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research said, the upside is limited.&nbsp;



“First, last week was clear evidence that much of the good news we’re receiving (solid growth, stable earnings, falling inflation, no negative geopolitical surprises) is already reflected in the S&amp;P 500 above 5,900. As such, that news is not going to fundamentally propel stocks higher near term,” Essaye said.&nbsp;



We’ll have all the earnings-related updates, so stay tuned and keep an eye on your inbox.&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On Our Radar</h2>



Happy Monday! We hope our readers enjoyed the weekend. Last week’s data painting a positive picture for a soft landing means markets want to see that momentum continue, but there isn’t too much on tap this week. We’ve already previewed the major earnings results coming up; here’s what to watch on the report front:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Conference Board <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">Leading Economic Index</a>, released Monday morning, surprised to the downside. The 0.5% decline in September marked the fifth straight monthly decline for the index. Over the past six months, the index has shed 2.6%, compared with a 2.2% decline during the six months prior. The index is now flashing a recession signal, indicating that a recession is “likely imminent or underway.” </li>



<li>On Thursday we will again get initial jobless claim numbers, which are expected to show a mild uptick for the week ended Oct. 19. Last week’s figures showed an unexpected decline in first-time filers, but analysts have warned that ongoing impacts from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">recent hurricanes</a> will likely skew data for weeks to come. In other words, markets would love to see another decline, but if we don’t, it’s not a huge deal. At least for now.  </li>



<li>October flash PMIs will also be released Thursday, giving us the first look at economic data for the fourth quarter. Last month’s reading came in strong at 54, and continued momentum on this front will be a positive sign for markets. </li>
</ul>



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The SEC’s Division of Examinations on Monday released its annual <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/2025-exam-priorities.pdf?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">priorities report</a> for the 2025 fiscal year. In it there is a separate section on “crypto assets,” which in past years has been combined with the section on “emerging financial technologies.” The team said it will focus on examining broker-dealer practices and the offer, sale and trading of crypto asset securities. </li>



<li>Most altcoins have collectively outperformed ether, so far in October, in terms of trading volume, research from Kaiko shows. The gap in volume between ETH and the top 50 altcoins is now the largest it has been since March. </li>



<li>As its FOIA-related <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-sec-foia-lawsuit-continues">lawsuit rages on</a>, Coinbase on Monday <a href="https://x.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1848396463333687483">said</a> it had requested a separate set of records, this time from the FDIC. The crypto exchange is seeking all documents related to crypto rules for banking institutions, including documents concerning an alleged “digital asset deposit cap.” </li>
</ul>



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What’s behind the latest rise (and retreat) of BTC

Jack Kubinec

Today, enjoy the Lightspeed newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to the Lightspeed newsletter</a>. 



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A block north of the Charles River and on the sixth floor of MIT’s media lab, Solana investors, founders, and community members were handed Red Sox-themed t-shirts and sipped Dunkin’ coffee during “Solana Boston,” the latest in crypto’s never-ending conference cycle.



This particular conference was much less ambitious than its predecessor in Solana Breakpoint. The venue consisted of two rooms for talks connected by a networking space. The most talked-about speaker seemed to be John Deaton, the crypto-friendly lawyer <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/elizabeth-warren-john-deaton-congressional-debate">challenging Elizabeth Warren</a> for her senate seat. There was also a voting-focused afterparty sponsored by the Coinbase-started advocacy organization Stand With Crypto.



I had conversations with multiple founders creating Solana-native apps outside the realm of memecoin trading. This perhaps gives some credence to the theory that after a prolonged stretch of building seemingly endless technological infrastructure for blockchains to use, crypto may finally be entering an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-set-for-a-new-era-of-apps-over-infrastructure">era of usable apps</a> chasing broad adoption.



But what the conference highlighted most of all for me was an effort to court students from highly-regarded schools like MIT following the industry’s high-profile PR debacles of the past couple years and the allure of other fields like AI.



Jake Lynch, one of the event’s organizers, told me that of the 250 registrants for Solana Boston, 90 described themselves as students. Boston University, Northeastern, Boston College, MIT, and Dartmouth were the five schools with the highest representation, Lynch added.



But when I met one current MIT student and one recent graduate, the pair seemed underwhelmed by their peers’ interest in crypto. Many of the school’s undergraduates are infatuated with AI, they said, and there seem to only be a few students in each graduating class who want to work in crypto.&nbsp;



A search of MIT’s course catalog for this semester turned up just a few crypto-related results, mostly in the business school, while I found more than a dozen AI-related classes.&nbsp;



As for the crypto industry, Lynch said he thinks there are too few entry level jobs in an industry that has a “massive learning curve” and called for “better funnels” to bring in new graduates.



Crypto likes to eschew credentialism, but for better or worse, a lot of the tech industry’s whiz kids end up graduating from a short list of well-resourced universities. (Crypto’s very own Sam Bankman-Fried famously went to Stanford, after all).



College kids, especially at elite universities, are likely to be drawn by what’s getting buzz from their professors and peers. For now, that seems to be AI. 



Perhaps Solana, with its <a href="https://x.com/SolJakey/status/1846244798421926038">intangible advantage in coolness</a>, can insert itself — and crypto — into the bright Gen-Z coder’s brain once again.



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Solana tries to establish a pipeline of new graduates

Payments company Stripe is set to acquire stablecoin platform Bridge in a deal the companies say will “accelerate the adoption and utility of tokenized dollars.”



The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close in the coming months, Bridge noted in a Monday blog post.



TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington <a href="https://x.com/arrington">reported</a> the value of the deal to be $1.1 billion. A Stripe spokesperson declined to comment on the deal terms, and Bridge did not immediately return a request for details.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stripe-reintegrates-crypto-payments-in-the-us">Stripe reintegrates crypto payments in the US</a>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/stripe">Stripe</a> CEO Patrick Collison said in an X post that his company seeks to build “the world’s best stablecoin infrastructure.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Stablecoins are room-temperature superconductors for financial services. Thanks to stablecoins, businesses around the world will benefit from significant speed, coverage, and cost improvements in the coming years. Stripe is going to build the world’s best stablecoin… <a href="https://t.co/6yKi7OKXVT">https://t.co/6yKi7OKXVT</a>&mdash; Patrick Collison (@patrickc) <a href="https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1848393059559502177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 21, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Bridge launched its APIs in March 2023, Bridge co-founder Zach Abrams said in an X <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/zacharyabrams/">post</a>. Though the company’s first year was “hard,” he added, it saw initial interest from cross-border payments companies and started to scale.&nbsp;



“After that, we had government entities onboard with us to disburse aid, fintechs build US dollar-based savings and spending products, SpaceX to manage their global treasury, and many others,” Abrams wrote.



Visa and SWIFT have since started to natively support <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/stablecoins">stablecoins</a>, Bridge noted in its Monday blog post.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/visa-impact-on-stablecoin-adoption">Why Visa’s new stablecoin efforts could be a game-changer</a>



“Policymakers across the globe are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/micar-foreign-stablecoins-advantage-in-europe">working to provide clarity</a> and support for stablecoin infrastructure, recognizing the technology’s strategic importance for our financial system,” the company wrote. “And in the background, stablecoin adoption and usage have been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/a16z-monthly-active-addresses-aths">rapidly accelerating</a>.”



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-paypal-stablecoins-keep-notching-gains">The market capitalization of stablecoins</a> currently sits just above $170 billion, according to DefiLlama <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins">data</a>.&nbsp;



Eric Risley, founding partner at advisory firm Architect Partners, said he believes this deal is “the most important <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/m&amp;a">M&amp;A</a> transaction to date for our industry.”



“This transaction is more evidence of the broadening recognition that stablecoin-based payments have compelling benefits and are being embraced by non-crypto companies,” he told Blockworks.



Those benefits include virtually instant settlement and very low fees, he added, which are particularly notable for cross-border payments between businesses and individuals.



“It&#8217;s hard to imagine a more fundamentally competitive move against the traditional banking system,” Risley said. “Payments at scale without a bank involved.”



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Stripe looks to build ‘world’s best stablecoin infrastructure’ after Bridge buy 

Donovan Choy

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Where does Ethereum go next?</h2>



BTC is $68k and ETH is $2.7k today. The last time bitcoin was at this price point was in November 2021, when ETH was ranging around $4.3K.



Back then, Ethereum’s prohibitively expensive gas fees averaged <a href="https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice">130 gwei</a> (27 gwei today). That prompted public <a href="https://x.com/zhusu/status/1462216210116853762">declarations</a> to “abandon” Ethereum for the alt-L1 chains then — remember “<a href="https://x.com/sassal0x/status/1529997453935513601?s=20">FOAN</a>”?



You could easily count every active rollup in those days. Today, there are at least <a href="https://l2beat.com/scaling/summary">105</a> rollups scaling a cumulative total of about 296 transactions per second, according to <a href="https://l2beat.com/scaling/summary">L2Beat</a>.



The Ethereum L1 has a TPS of about 13, so that’s about a 21x improvement from three years ago. All things considered, that’s progress.



This progress is largely thanks to the proliferation of rollups via rollup-as-a-service (RaaS) providers, like Caldera and Conduit, which makes it really easy and cheap to create them.



The second major factor is the rise of alternative <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/data-availability-transaction-costs-blockchain">data availability solutions</a> like Celestia, as well as the EIP-4844 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-dencun-upgrade-mainnet">Dencun upgrade</a> in March 2024. The latter offered L2s rollups a cheaper way to post their batched data to the L1 — about 10x cheaper in cost savings.&nbsp;



This is all going according to plan. But it’s still a long way from Ethereum’s endgame, which is to reach about 100k TPS on both the Ethereum mainnet and all L2s as part of the roadmap’s “<a href="https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/10/17/futures2.html">Surge</a>” phase.



For that to happen, much remains to be accomplished.



For one, Ethereum needs PeerDAS (peer data availability sampling) to scale data availability. PeerDAS borrows some important ideas from BitTorrent’s peer-to-peer file sharing by distributing broken pieces of data between Ethereum validator nodes to handle more data without the burden of having to store everything.



Then there’s data compression to make more compact the millions of daily signatures on transactions we sign via our MetaMask wallets, such that data usage of an ERC-20 transfer would cost no more than 30 bytes (180 bytes today).&nbsp;



This can be achieved by aggregating several signatures into one that verifies against multiple public keys at once, using the BLS (Boneh-Lynn-Shacham) digital signature scheme — not currently possible on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) signatures today.



Next is the use of plasma, a scaling solution wherein blocks are published off-chain with Merkle roots of those blocks placed onchain — a vast computational improvement over today’s rollups, where full blocks are submitted onchain, or via <a href="https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/scaling/validium/">validiums</a>.



That’s just for the L2s. As for the L1, execution needs to continue scaling, either by increasing gas limits of L1 blocks or introducing piecemeal upgrades to make the EVM more gas-efficient. Methods look to adapting the EVM Object Format (<a href="https://evmobjectformat.org/">EOF</a>) bytecode, or creating parallelized markets for computation, data and storage (i.e., multidimensional gas pricing).



All this ensures the L1 does not become a “ghost chain” used only for settlement and DA. In <a href="https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/10/17/futures2.html">Vitalik’s words</a>, Ethereum still “needs to be powerful enough to be able to at least occasionally actually handle a highly complex and chaotic wind-down of an L2,” which is why the “long-run security of the network” matters.



Finally there are UX improvements like solving cross-chain interoperability, so using Ethereum doesn’t feel like using 100 different chains. This effort is being tackled at the protocol level by developing better ERC standards like <a href="https://x.com/Uniswap/status/1840428630406492595">ERC-7683</a>, and by having dozens of other players working in the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/shared-sequencers-decentralization">shared sequencing</a>” and “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/renzo-restaking-chain-abstraction">chain abstraction</a>” areas.



All these roadmap features must be accomplished while preserving decentralization, which entails pushing L2s toward active proof systems that are trustless —&nbsp;and <a href="https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/10/20/futures3.html">keeping an eye</a> on centralization around the MEV layer.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart of the Day</h2>



Memecoin frenzy on Solana:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfrCu_Z1vrLX8kwyG72Vfdmz1yVhFHAszqhYJ_8IQKS8wAQf4qit3R2HhlAbZ2RoIyMwC_iTxbHWUuaB65pDuYNzrNAmIRET-Yw8FxzP2ZIuEvEAW20XCIe3wHLGCS8oRpXQ_Lji63he8ki3MvO_7R_v2t1?key=G4B7neV6m9H-NeF5vJuYYw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/sol?dashboard=sol-dex">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



Memecoin trading volumes (light and dark purple bars) are racking up new all-time highs relative to total DEX trading activity on Solana. In the last week, about $15.4 million in trading volumes came from memecoin trading, against a total of $19.8 million on all DEX activity. The pump.fun memecoin maker saw <a href="https://dune.com/hashed_official/pumpdotfun">31,615</a> memecoins deployed on past Saturday alone, marking its highest ever.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Ethereum wants to scale to 100K TPS

<a href="https://trondao.org/">TRON DAO</a> participated as a Ruby Sponsor at <a href="https://princeton.cargo.site/">Princeton Blockchain Club</a>’s 3rd Annual Crypto TigerTrek, a novel Princeton experience that brought together students and industry professionals for a week filled with discussions, networking, and educational sessions, all focused on the evolving landscape of blockchain technology.



TRON DAO has collaborated with top academic institutions through initiatives like the <a href="https://x.com/trondao/status/1842728799542145157">TRON Builder Tour</a>, which has visited universities such as MIT, Harvard, and Columbia. Princeton was another important stop in TRON’s mission to mentor the next generation of blockchain developers and leaders.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A platform for collaboration and innovation</h3>



As part of this event, Steven Bischoff, TRON Community Spokesperson, delivered a keynote to Princeton students. In his address, he emphasized the essential skills required to succeed in the cryptocurrency industry, along with providing a comprehensive overview of how to effectively communicate, navigate, and build collaborations within the industry.



The keynote also provided an overview of TRON’s robust ecosystem and stablecoin solutions are driving adoption within emerging markets, showcasing real-world applications of blockchain technology in various industries.



This content is sponsored by Tron and does not serve as an endorsement by Blockworks. The veracity of this content has not been verified and should not serve as financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research before making financial decisions.  



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TRON DAO supports Princeton Blockchain Club’s Crypto TigerTrek as Ruby Sponsor

Katherine Ross

David Canellis

Today, enjoy the Empire newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Times are a changin’</h1>



Altcoin season might not have officially started — but there are signs.



In October alone, 20 of the top 500 cryptocurrencies by market cap reached new price records, including sui, mantra and fasttoken.



There’s also whitebit, the native token for the Ukrainian crypto exchange of the same name, which has ballooned to a $2.5 billion market cap from under $500 million in February.



And okay, 14 of the all-time highs were set by memecoins — some of which were launched quite recently, like goat and sudeng — so they don’t count as much.



The same goes for tokens for restaking protocol eigenlayer and Sui-native decentralized CLOB deepbook, which also started trading in October.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe_AN_SNwZJxa9dWJE2Ng1pMnc5C2rDJqgnQI1_mbk5edbb8F1OGv8mAT9TTZi2P2VcVJr6WqN7Unpv9duVBPlSeZ2gsmBvxAUrJKuhSm7p_hMgiYwoOEVtjpIIIbiDql5uyLUwV_44v-ezDMOJJ6tMMhH8?key=FZvHNoabHMtdHnEeuXnqhQ" alt=""/></figure>



Each circle on the chart above represents a different cryptocurrency, plotted against the total capitalization of the market. Their position on the chart shows when that coin last hit an all-time high.



The darker the circle, the further away that coin is from an all-time high. So, the brighter circles — generally the coins that set price records more recently — are closest to those records right now.



Dampening the good vibes are the 166 coins which hit all-time highs during the bull market (between mid-2020 and mid-2022) still far below those marks.&nbsp;



They’re down 89% on average and the median is down 92%. Crypto exchange Gate.io’s native token is the closest of the coins with decent market caps, 31% below its record high as of this weekend, followed by SOL (39% below) and ETH (46%).



The real point of contention is whether the next altcoin season would truly favor hot coins of the previous cycle. Most would need to multiply in value many, many times over from here to see new price records.&nbsp;



Something tells me we could be in for a very different altcoin season.



 — David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Data Center</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>All eyes are on BTC and whether it can break $70,000 for the first time since June (BTC: $68,294; ETH: $2,707).</li>



<li>APE, DOGE and MEW lead the <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/">front page</a> for weekly gains with 100%, 30% and 29%, respectively.</li>



<li>Ethereum mainnet handled about 8.5 million transactions last week, per <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/eth?dashboard=eth-onchain-activity&amp;interval=weekly">Blockworks Research</a> data, the most since the local top in March.</li>



<li>Solana has now flipped Tron for <a href="https://defillama.com/chains">TVL</a>: $7.72 billion to $6.89 billion after adding 16% overnight. That last happened in April 2022.</li>



<li>Token presales for Trump-linked World Liberty Financial have slowed to a crawl, now at $13.79 million, or almost 5% of the goal.</li>
</ul>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Hurry up and wait</h1>



What a weekend.&nbsp;



For a moment there, it looked like bitcoin was trying for $70,000 — a level we haven’t seen since this summer (in case you somehow forgot, it was just a few months after we last carved out an all-time high).&nbsp;



Right now, we’re in a bit of an odd situation as we play out the wait-and-see game. The election is acting as a blockade, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-memecoins-winning">keeping folks at bay from token launches</a> — which could be a mixed bag for crypto — and potential all-time highs.&nbsp;



“We are at an inflection point with prices just shy of $70,000, so with the US election cleared and further rate cuts on the horizon BTC is positioning to potentially move higher and test all-time highs,” FalconX’s Ivan Lim told me.&nbsp;



Adding to that, FalconX’s David Lawant thinks that, until election day, we’re going to continue to see implied volatility — though it will be “muted” leading up to the election itself. After the election? Well, there’ll be an “interesting set-up.”



“A top-side heavy positioning suggests investors are relatively more willing to use the options market to capture additional price upside,” he added.&nbsp;



ETC Group noted that last week saw a pick up in both bitcoin futures and perpetual open interest. Specifically, perpetual funding rates hit their highest level yesterday since June of this year after remaining positive throughout last week.



Here’s the deal: “When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions.”



Basically, a positive funding rate can be a sentiment read and it’s generally a sign of bullishness in the perpetual futures markets.&nbsp;



To give us some idea of overall sentiment, ETC Group’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index hit its highest level since March 2024, signaling a bullish vibe at the moment.&nbsp;



And it’s not just bitcoin’s party. Ether managed to outperform bitcoin last week, ETC Group noted. Dogecoin and solana also led the top 10 outperformers.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcj6Ev-PNqcr3WaEPqv5okrhDxXkTf2LCmHJfI99nKKD_WdWztDiypkkSRxBAhIYRvW5PIYRweD8L2a7gsuSBirK86NcgoDgxnpK6_hiuNkJOzRkR2LmQW7eqDzddHVw-0vOcxtJ92Si-3vwZFUDawTRD2w?key=FZvHNoabHMtdHnEeuXnqhQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: ETC Group</figcaption></figure>



“In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance still signals a decrease in risk appetite at the moment,” ETC Group analysts wrote.&nbsp;



Brb, gonna get my popcorn ready for the next few weeks.



— Katherine Ross&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Works</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crypto PACs continue to focus on political spending, backing a number of Republican candidates, Axios <a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/21/crypto-republicans-congress-election">reported</a>.</li>



<li>Stripe’s deal for stablecoin platform Bridge is “done,” with the payments company acquiring the stablecoin platform for a cool $1.1 billion, <a href="https://x.com/arrington/status/1848060479727435967">according</a> to TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington. </li>



<li>A handful of whales are skewing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-polymarket-election-manipulation">Polymarket odds</a> for the US presidential election.</li>



<li>Pump.fun’s team <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/322122/pump-fun-planning-to-launch-a-token-in-the-future-x-spaces?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss">teased</a> a potential token launch “in the future” during an X Spaces.</li>



<li>ICYMI, crypto firm Copper <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/copper-okx-name-new-executives">welcomed</a> a new CEO last week, and exchange OKX added a chief risk officer to their ranks.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Riff</h2>



Q: Could we carve out new all-time highs before the election?



Never say never, I guess, but I do think that it’s unlikely.



There’s a reason why the traditional markets tend to hate uncertainty. Because of that, we sometimes see what could be read as an overreaction to events that give some, well, certainty to a situation. Unfortunately, bitcoin may very well be in the same boat.&nbsp;



My conversations with analysts and folks around crypto have shifted to focus on how bitcoin reacts after the election, no matter who’s in the office.&nbsp;



And I have to say, the overall feeling is quite bullish. We’ll just have to see if that plays out.



— Katherine Ross



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Why the bull run might look different this time around

Leading this week’s funding wrap is Azra Games, a gaming studio.



The company announced a Series A round of $42.7 million, led by Pantera Capital with participation from a16z Crypto, a16z Games and NFX.



The firm is focused on creating role-playing games specifically on mobile. Mark Otero, who previously worked at Electronic Arts, founded the studio.



“The funding will be instrumental in accelerating the growth of Azra Games and advancing its various projects that are currently in development, including its flagship ground-breaking game, currently code-named ‘Project Legends,’” a press release announced.&nbsp;



The studio plans to roll out games with the ability to add in technologies such as blockchain.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-nfts-comeback-gaming">A wave of new games could prove NFTs aren’t dead after all</a>



“The team at Azra Games has the incredible opportunity and vision to trailblaze the fourth generation of mobile RPG games that combines the creativity of new <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/gaming">gaming</a> formats and experiences with the digital ownership of blockchain,” said a16z Crypto’s Arianna Simpson.



Then, we have a pre-seed round coming out of stealth.&nbsp;



Hyve, a secured network on Symbiotic’s ecosystem, announced a $1.85 million pre-seed round as it exited stealth.&nbsp;



Lemniscap led the round, with participation from Paper Ventures and Frachtis.&nbsp;



“Across the Web3 landscape, current infrastructure has struggled to keep up with the growing complexity and data demands of modern applications. As we move towards an increasingly decentralized future, the need for robust, scalable and secure infrastructure has never been more pronounced,” Douwe Fassen, Hyve’s CEO, said in a press release.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/slow-defi-infrastructure-curbs-mass-adoption">DeFi’s slow infrastructure is holding back mass adoption</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other notable rounds:&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Blockstream <a href="https://x.com/Blockstream/status/1846193752999608427">raised</a> $210 million in convertible note financing. The round was led by Fulgur Ventures.</li>



<li>Crypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial <a href="https://x.com/Bitnomial/status/1846188841381593591">announced</a> a $25 million Series C in a round led by Ripple — with an aim to launch a US perpetual futures trading platform. </li>



<li>Gaming startup PiP <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/web3-gaming-startup-pip-world-secures-10-million-seed-funding-from-leading-global-fintech-organization-exinity-1033842615">raised</a> $10 million in seed funding in a round led by Exinity. </li>



<li>Layer <a href="https://x.com/LayerOnEth/status/1843409739939471623">said</a> it raised $6 million in a seed round led by 1kx, with participation from Fabric Ventures, Arrington Capital and others.</li>
</ul>



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Funding Roundup: Gaming startup Azra Games raises $42M

Crypto firm Copper.co named a new CEO earlier this week as it says it seeks to build on regulatory wins in Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi, and expand further.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Amar Kuchinad replaces Copper.co founder Dmitry Tokarev, who spent the last seven years as the company’s chief executive. Tokarev will remain as a director on the board.



The new CEO began his career at Credit Suisse before becoming head of US portfolio credit trading at Goldman Sachs. Kuchinad moved on to be a senior policy adviser at the Securities and Exchange Commission and then founded Electronifie in a bid to enhance bond trading via digital innovation.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-binance-leadership-changes">Crypto Hiring: Coinbase, Bybit see changes; leaders step away</a>



“[Amar’s] skill sets and experience provide the perfect complement to Dmitry’s technical strengths as we deploy our industry-leading technology to support global financial institutions to trade and safeguard digital assets of all kinds,” Copper.co Chair Lord Hammond said in a statement.



Then there’s crypto exchange <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/okx">OKX</a>, which appointed Yuri Mushkin as its chief risk officer.



Mushkin spent two years at BlockFi — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockfi-liquidate-crypto-lending-platform">a crypto lender that went bankrupt</a> last year. He then spent about a year as head of SMA, liquidity and counterparty risk at McKinsey &amp; Company subsidiary MIO Partners.



The executive will be based in Singapore, where OKX’s local entity received a Major Payment Institution (MPI) license last month.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/token2049-singapore-solana-breakpoint-conference-recap">Token2049: A circus of crypto and commerce</a>



Komainu appointed Edward Marlow to help lead the company’s efforts in Africa under its ambassador program.&nbsp;



A former British Army officer, Marlow was also previously an investment banking managing director at Deutsche Bank and a head of Sub-Saharan Africa at Credit Suisse.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/abra">Abra</a>, a crypto prime services and wealth management platform, nabbed David Streltsoff to lead institutional sales.



Streltsoff previously held a similar role at Anchorage Digital, and prior to that was head of systematic trading sales at FalconX.



In case you missed it, Andrew Hinkes joined law firm Winston &amp; Strawn in their Miami office as a partner in its division focused on digital assets and blockchain technology.&nbsp;



Hinkes is an associate adjunct professor at NYU’s business and law schools. He co-wrote a textbook — Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology: US Law and Regulation — with Winston &amp; Strawn attorneys Kim Prior and Dan Stabile.



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Crypto Hiring: Copper, OKX name new executives

The TON layer-1 blockchain’s viral tap-to-earn game Hamster Kombat is <a href="https://x.com/hamster_kombat/status/1846883884681601530">launching</a> its second season at the end of October.



When the game launched in March 2024, its first season saw players running a fictional tier-one crypto exchange.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">HAMSTERS ARE THE NEW WHALES 🤩 The new chapter of Hamster Kombat is just around the corner, and all the CEOs will be managing new businesses very soon. 🧡 Together we will be building a gaming platform, hiring employees, and producing new gaming hits! <a href="https://t.co/NrBiN8GrPa">pic.twitter.com/NrBiN8GrPa</a>&mdash; Hamster Kombat (@hamster_kombat) <a href="https://twitter.com/hamster_kombat/status/1846883884681601530?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Players in the second season will act as a game development studio CEO in charge of marketing, HR and merchandise launch, as per a <a href="https://x.com/hamster_kombat/status/1846883884681601530">video teaser</a>.



Hamster Kombat launched its HMSTR token in late September, and was listed across major exchanges like Binance, OKX and Crypto.com.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/telegram-tap-to-earn-gaming-trend">Web3 Watch: Telegram tap-to-earn is the new crypto gaming trend</a>



HMSTR sits at a $247 million market cap as of Friday, down from about $560 million on its token generation event.&nbsp;



According to its <a href="https://hamsterkombatgame.io/docs/HK_WP_03.pdf">white paper</a>, Hamster Kombat has no venture-backed investors and 60% of its total 100 billion HMSTR token supply is allocated to players.



On the game’s <a href="https://hamsterkombatgame.io/">roadmap</a> for Q4 2024, season two will incorporate NFT mechanics and other external payment systems.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Moonray announces 2025 PS5 launch</h2>



The AAA game Moonray announced Thursday its planned 2025 launch of the PlayStation 5 console.



Moonray is a player-versus-player battle arena blockchain-based game that previously launched a “play-to-airdrop” <a href="https://x.com/moonraygame/status/1802815540647346318">campaign</a> in June, as well as <a href="https://x.com/moonraygame/status/1575484593007865857">NFT sales</a> of in-game skins in 2022.



To stay compliant with platform policies however, Web3 features have been stripped from its PS5 release.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-nfts-comeback-gaming">A wave of new games could prove NFTs aren’t dead after all</a>



Previously on the Ethereum L1, Moonray <a href="https://x.com/moonraygame/status/1575484593007865857">announced</a> it would move its blockchain features to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/base">Base</a> layer-2 in June.



The game has been available to play in “Early Access” mode for PC on the Epic Games store since July 2024, but will also be available on Steam eventually.



According to a press release, Moonray is backed by investors including Animoca Brands, Republic Crypto, C2 Ventures, Polygon Ventures, Huobi Ventures, Cardano Ventures and Master Ventures.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">One interesting stat:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Web3 <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/gaming">gaming</a> company Azra Games <a href="https://x.com/AzraGames/status/1846207939776073744">announced</a> a $42.7 million Series A funding raise led by Pantera Capital, with participation from a16z and NFX ventures.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Also of note:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>BlockBar, a blockchain-based wines and spirits marketplace, is <a href="https://x.com/BlockBar/status/1846205738017816653">launching</a> an “artisanal producer” program to include smaller batch alcohol from independent producers.</li>



<li>Big things are coming for Nouns Esports as the team <a href="https://mirror.xyz/0x6fB5d14b61e595e6f34BAF952c5d3e60e45883b0/7CPdMIU2T9tGY9w6lIXcbS-gtXkxHPOdb6ZiDhstyBg">plans</a> to scale into a professional league with onchain mechanics.</li>



<li>The Gods Unchained Web3 trading card game just <a href="https://x.com/GodsUnchained/status/1844420179096121463">launched</a> its latest Tower of Dread expansion.</li>
</ul>



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Web3 Watch: Tap-to-earn game Hamster Kombat gears up for Season 2 

Michael McSweeney

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved NYSE and CBOE’s bids to list options for bitcoin exchange-traded funds.



In <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/cboe/2024/34-101387.pdf">two</a> <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nyseamer/2024/34-101386.pdf">statements</a>, the SEC granted approval to the proposed rule changes, clearing the way for options. The proposed options are tied to bitcoin ETFs provided by Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck and others.



Both proposed rule changes were granted “on an accelerated basis,” per the notices. The move echoed the language used for Nasdaq’s approval of IBIT options in September.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-btc-etf-options">SEC approval of BTC ETF options to ‘attract more big fish’</a>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-options-spot-bitcoin-etfs">Speculation about the success</a> of options proposals began shortly after the approval of spot ETFs. The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-spot-btc-options-delay">matter seemed in doubt</a> when reports surfaced this summer that the NYSE had withdrawn its proposed rule change. As expected, the SEC <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-delays-bitcoin-etf-options-proposals">sought</a> more time to consider the products as the process moved along.&nbsp;



With the approvals, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a> continues to widen market access to crypto-tied financial products on major exchanges. Thus far, 2024 has seen the approval of spot ETFs for both <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">bitcoin</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nine-us-spot-eth-etfs-live-post-approval">ether</a>, as previously reported.



Whether today’s approvals signal a broader regulatory sea change in the US remains to be seen. The SEC is a frequent target of industry criticism, and its chair, Gary Gensler, has drawn continued scorn and promises from one US presidential candidate, Republican <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">fire him should he prevail in November</a>. 



Bitcoin is trading around $68,400 on Coinbase as of press time, up more than 1% on the day, per <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD">TradingView</a> data.



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SEC greenlights CBOE, NYSE bids for spot bitcoin ETF options

Today, enjoy the Forward Guidance newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Banned gambling platform prone to manipulation? You don’t say.&nbsp;</h2>



I’ve said it <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-potential-polymarket-ban">before</a> and I’ll say it again: US persons are banned from Polymarket.&nbsp;



Per a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cftc-fines-crypto-betting-service-polymarket-1-4-million-orders-shutdown">2022 settlement</a> with the CFTC, Polymarket is required to block US users.&nbsp;



Obviously, we know this hasn’t stopped people from circumventing the rules (and writing <a href="https://medium.com/@joearvis7/how-to-use-polymarket-in-the-united-states-8a891dde1a91">how-to’s</a> to help others do the same). But still, I’ve found the widespread acceptance of Polymarket odds as a proxy for the 2024 presidential <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-prediction-markets-post-election">election outcome</a> confounding.&nbsp;



Odd Lots co-host Tracy Alloway said it best:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover that the odds being produced by a bunch of gamblers accessing a gray betting market through a VPN might be prone to manipulation.&mdash; Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) <a href="https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1847248892955345284?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Latest polls from Emerson College released Friday have Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%. FiveThirtyEight is reporting similar numbers, with Thursday’s numbers showing Harris at 48% and Trump at 46%.&nbsp;



Polymarket is the outlier. On the prediction markets, Trump is in the lead with 60% and Harris trails with 39%.&nbsp;



Of course, Polymarket is not a poll (Elon Musk argues that betting markets are even more accurate because “money is on the line,” plus, we all know what happened in 2016). But the odds having skewed so heavily toward Trump in just a matter of weeks on Polymarket — Harris and Trump were neck-in-neck at the beginning of the month — has raised eyebrows.&nbsp;



Four accounts (Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie) have poured $30 million+ into Trump bets in recent weeks. They are mostly betting on Trump winning the presidency, but they are also wagering that he will earn the popular vote. They’ve “pushed Polymarket’s market much higher than anyone is willing to bet it down,” fellow prediction marketplace Manifold Markets wrote in a Thursday <a href="https://news.manifold.markets/p/is-trump-really-62-to-win?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=723658&amp;post_id=150220040&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=8qa0o&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email">blog</a> post.&nbsp;



It’s worth noting that Polymarket bettors have, historically, called some things correctly. They predicted that Biden would win in 2020, and over the summer also accurately predicted that he’d drop out of the race. Markets have also been right about Supreme Court decisions, including the ruling earlier this month that upheld Texas abortion laws.&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kalshi-election-markets-cftc">Kalshi</a>, a US-based prediction market, earlier this month won its appeal against the CFTC and legally re-opened betting on Congressional race outcomes to US users. Presidential election bets are still prohibited on the platform.&nbsp;



Even after Kalshi’s court win, Polymarket remained elusive. The company declined to comment on the ruling and/or share any plans (or lack thereof) to try to re-enter the US legally.&nbsp;



This wasn’t a huge shock though, considering Polymarket got a not-so-favorable shoutout in the Kalshi appeals ruling: “Whether Polymarket has complied with the latter limitation is in question,” Judge Patricia Millett wrote in her <a href="https://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2024/10/24-5205-2077790.pdf">opinion</a>. (“Latter limitation” here refers to Polymarket’s requirement to block US persons.)&nbsp;



Plus, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/unpacking-potential-polymarket-ban">US “ban”</a> or not, Polymarket is by all accounts wildly successful. Its US presidential election market has surpassed $2 billion in volume to date, according to <a href="https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket">data</a> from Dune Analytics.&nbsp;



So far in October, volume across the platform has already broken its 30-day record, coming in at $917 million as of Thursday.&nbsp;



Why spend the time and money in the court system to get the greenlight in the US if it doesn’t have to?&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">1 in 3&nbsp;</h3>



The number of Democrats who say “supporting crypto” should be, at minimum, a “medium level” priority for the federal government, according to a new <a href="https://digitalchamber.org/vote/">survey</a> from the Digital Chamber of Commerce.



&nbsp;The report also noted that 1 in 4 Republicans believe positive crypto policy should be a “high” or “very high” priority for the White House and Congress.&nbsp;



The study was conducted by XandY from Sept. 12-17 and had a sample size of 1,004 adult US residents.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Appeal in Ripple case moves forward&nbsp;</h2>



The SEC last night moved forward with its appeal of the 2023 court decision that largely sided with Ripple, arguing that the court <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-xrp-ripple-appeal">“erroneously” ruled</a> in favor of Ripple on the issue of programmatic sales.&nbsp;



The securities regulator is also asking the court to review the actions of current and former Ripple CEOs Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen. The two “aided and abetted” the programmatic sales and made personal offers and sales of XRP tokens, the SEC wrote in its Form C, filed Thursday evening. Whether or not Ripple violated securities laws by exchanging XRP for “consideration other than cash” must also be reviewed, the filing added.&nbsp;



In 2023, the court ruled partially in favor of the SEC in its December 2020 case against Ripple. Presiding Judge Analisa Torres sided with the SEC and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/quantstamp-sec-securities-violations">confirmed</a> that the institutional sales of XRP tokens were an unregistered securities offering.&nbsp;



Torres <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/judge-rules-ripple-xrp-not-security">sided with Ripple</a> on the issue of programmatic sales — made to retail investors via cryptocurrency exchanges — stating that these transactions did not violate securities laws. Personal sales from Garlinghouse and Larsen were also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-drops-dismisses-garlinghouse-case">in the clear</a>, Torres’s ruling stated.&nbsp;



The appeal is generally what I expected, but the drama is now focused on whether the SEC’s appeal should be tossed on a technicality.&nbsp;



There is some <a href="https://x.com/MetaLawMan/status/1846896733785125191">debate</a> about whether or not the SEC missed the deadline to file its Form C.&nbsp;



The filing must be submitted within 14 days of the Notice of Appeal, including weekends and holidays, unless the due date falls on a weekend or holiday. The SEC filed its notice on Oct. 2 (making the deadline Oct. 16), but it was not entered into the docket until Oct. 4 (making the deadline Oct. 18).&nbsp;



Ripple says the SEC’s filing was late. The SEC has not responded. We’ll have to wait and see if Ripple’s team brings it up with the judge and what the court thinks.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Did You Notice</h2>



Happy Friday! Economic data this week mostly surprised to the upside, helping to lower expectations that we may see another 50 basis points shaved off rates before the end of the year. Here’s a recap:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>As we wrote about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">yesterday</a>, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 241,000 vs. the anticipated 260,000. Volatility from Hurricanes Helene and Milton seems to be easing, but could continue as rebuilding and clean-up efforts progress, so it’s a figure to keep an eye on. Continuing claims came in just a bit higher than expected at 1.867 million vs. 1.865 million, but broadly, the labor market looks pretty strong. </li>



<li>In other good news, US retail sales also beat expectations this week, showing a 0.4% month-over-month increase in purchase value from September. This compared to the 0.3% monthly increase analysts predicted, and far better than the 0.1% increase we saw between July and August. Excluding cars and gas, sales across the board increased 0.7% last month. Resilient consumer spending is a positive sign for economic growth, and while Fed rate cut expectations were little moved by Thursday’s report, the figures help cement odds that we just may get a soft landing after all. </li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Blockchain analytics firm <a href="https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/tesla">Arkham Intelligence</a> found that Tesla moved $765 million in bitcoin to unknown wallets.</li>



<li>The S&amp;P 500 is set to close this week in the green, marking the sixth-straight week of gains for the index. Should it close higher, it will mark the longest weekly winning streak of the year so far. </li>



<li>In a new <a href="https://static.worldlibertyfinancial.com/docs/us/gold-paper.pdf">update</a> from the Trump family crypto endeavor, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-family-defi-venture">World Liberty Financial</a>, the presidential hopeful’s family is slated to receive 22.5 billion WLFI tokens, or 22.5% of the total <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-wlf-token-sale">circulating supply</a>.</li>
</ul>



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Max Burwick has run a boutique law firm focused on crypto since 2021. In a recent video call from his office in midtown Manhattan, Burwick said he’s started seeing an influx of cases from clients who lost money on memecoins.



Burwick started hearing memecoin complaints over the past three months, and the trend has “increased significantly” over the past few weeks.



“Did you lose money on $FRIEND? You may be entitled to compensation,” Burwick Law <a href="https://x.com/BurwickLaw/status/1833174143245975844">wrote</a> on social media after the creators of the crypto social app friend.tech <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/frienddottech-relinquishes-platform-control">seemingly walked away</a> from the project.



He doesn’t see the new raft of memecoin clients slowing down either.&nbsp;



“I would say we&#8217;re gonna see a dramatic increase” in the future, Burwick said.



Speculative investments that lead to lost funds and eventual lawsuits have been a part of every crypto market cycle, and this cycle’s iteration of that may come from memecoins.



This year’s unique memecoin flavor is being driven by the token launchpad pump.fun, which has <a href="https://dune.com/adam_tehc/pumpfun">generated</a> at least $1 million in revenue each of the past five days. Pump’s original promise was to prevent rug pulls, which are a type of scam where a project’s creators abscond with raised funds and leave promised tokens or NFTs valueless. Pump.fun launches don’t allow for pre-sales or team allocations that could mislead investors, so while you’re still in a casino, at least it’s a fair casino, the thinking goes.



Still, B-list celebrities might want to be careful when launching memecoins.



Burwick said he feels “highly optimistic” in his attempt to recover assets in some pending cases. That’s because “you have a pretty clear establishment of the Howey test for at least 50% of the memecoins that are issued.”



Courts use the Howey test to determine if tokens are securities. Under securities law, issuers can be in legal trouble, as can “statutory sellers” — a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/circuits-split-over-whether-social-media-posts-may-give-rise-section-12-seller-2023-03-06/">label</a> that has been slapped on some crypto folk who promote ill-fated investments. Howey holds that securities involve an investment of money with the expectation of profit from a common enterprise reliant on the efforts of others. Some in crypto take issue with the “efforts of others” portion of this, since blockchains are decentralized, and anyone can participate in them.&nbsp;



But this may look different when celebrities get involved, Burwick said, citing an ongoing <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KFcKz77d43-Z1s6907oMFv-kv48VFsWy53jpwwzmDbI/edit?usp=sharing">suit</a> against Shaquille O’Neal which claims Big Diesel was a statutory seller for a failed NFT project.



“I can certainly tell you if it&#8217;s a celebrity memecoin and you&#8217;re asking, ‘Is this token going to go up from the efforts of others?’ I would think that the answer becomes pretty obvious,” Burwick said.



Still, the infinite memecoin world we’re currently living in feels novel, and how courts might respond is still something of an open question. In Burwick’s view, court actions pertaining to NFTs might give an indication.



“NFT cases…pretty much laid out exactly the way the courts are going to interpret this,” Burwick said.



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A crypto lawyer predicts a ‘dramatic increase’ in memecoin lawsuits

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Kraken launches kBTC wrapped bitcoin competitor</h2>



Big launches in the onchain world this week.



More challengers are gunning for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitgo-wbtc-custodial-changes">BitGo’s wBTC</a> market share as Kraken plans to <a href="https://blog.kraken.com/news/kbtc">roll out</a> its own wrapped bitcoin product, kBTC. The ERC-20 token will be available on Ethereum and Optimism.



kBTC will be backed 1:1 by bitcoin held at Kraken Financial, a Wyoming-chartered Special Purpose Depository Institution, and will <a href="https://mempool.space/address/bc1qqwf6hexnnswmj6yuhz5xyj20frtp8exv7mclck">carry</a> full proof-of-reserves onchain.



Kraken’s move comes just after its rival centralized exchange Coinbase launched <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-wrapped-bitcoin-competitor-cbbtc">its own cbBTC</a> on Ethereum and Base a month ago.



Despite market predictions that BitGo would lose its wBTC market share, wBTC’s total market cap has stayed relatively stable at $10 billion since the introduction of cbBTC, which itself has scaled to a $463 million market cap.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Karak launches V2 mainnet</h2>



Founded by ex-Coinbase and Risk Harbor (a Terra-based risk management platform) employees Raouf Ben-Har and Drew Patel, Karak is the third largest <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/universal-restaking-layer-andalusia-labs">restaking protocol</a> by TVL ($554 million). Today, it launched its v2 mainnet.



Karak v2 will notably <a href="https://blog.karak.network/karak-v2/">introduce</a> slashing, a way to penalize the stake of operators that fail to comply with DSS’s (distributed secure services; the equivalent of an EigenLayer AVS) rules. This makes Karak the first restaking protocol to do so.



Karak was the first restaking protocol to enable the use of non-ETH assets for restaking. This feature was later adopted <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethena-symbiotic-edge-over-eigen">by Symbiotic</a> and more recently EigenLayer, marking a complete shift away from the industry’s exclusive restaking of ETH.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fuel launches Ignition rollup</h2>



Another Ethereum L2 joins the fray. The optimistic rollup Fuel Network <a href="https://fuel.mirror.xyz/U2xqey0oZFCrIBf7bO3yYyFplJKiJ0sfzAyYmhrPjag">announced</a> on Wednesday the launch of “Ignition” v1 mainnet.



Ignition runs on its own programming language, Sway and FuelVM, an alternative execution layer to the EVM. The new rollup will employ a UTXO-based transaction model and use the Ethereum L1 for data availability. It claims to run about 21,000 TPS per core at a one-second blocktime, in contrast to Ethereum L1’s 12-second blocktime.



Before Ignition, Fuel’s claim to fame was based on its Fuel v1 rollup, the first rollup to achieve “<a href="https://medium.com/l2beat/introducing-stages-a-framework-to-evaluate-rollups-maturity-d290bb22befe">Stage 2</a>” security in 2020. Based on L2Beat’s framework, Stage 2 indicates a permissionless fraud proof system and the ability for users to have at least 30 days to offload assets from the rollup in the event of upgrades. To date, only the DeGate v1 rollup has achieved Stage 2 status.



Ignition will begin at a Stage 0 rating at launch, though “it will rapidly move toward Stage 1 and then eventually Stage 2,” its blog claims.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart of the Day</h2>



PYUSD supply tapers off:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXePy_6exzlTHnMKCG_ihBqg6qbmx_L-eEAKSEp7WIKpqvPdt6GXpTsBv95zn8usQxX_uAD3F7MgVfF5ksk9hHsxnOKRHrJPhfGwfrnU237ckiBugDUfiO7aXOpDCEvxUo5hiqfjrO-zR5z59dRNeP9vXACu?key=ckmJm7-bbocbWehAieVyyg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/paypal-usd">CoinGecko</a></figcaption></figure>



The market cap of PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-pyusd-outflows-solana">tapered off</a> from its late August highs of $1 billion to about $604 million today. PYUSD’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-paypal-stablecoins-keep-notching-gains">rapid growth</a> in July was largely driven by millions in incentives. In mid-August, PYUSD deposits <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kamino-seeing-benefits-from-liquidity-incentives-on-pyusd">on Kamino</a> yielded a 17.6% APY, in comparison to about <a href="https://app.kamino.finance/lending/reserve/DxXdAyU3kCjnyggvHmY5nAwg5cRbbmdyX3npfDMjjMek/FswUCVjvfAuzHCgPDF95eLKscGsLHyJmD6hzkhq26CLe">5.7%</a> today. The value is still marginally higher than the 4.6% supply APYs on <a href="https://app.aave.com/reserve-overview/?underlyingAsset=0x6c3ea9036406852006290770bedfcaba0e23a0e8&amp;marketName=proto_mainnet_v3">Aave</a> today, but with incentives drying up, it’s no surprise that farmers have moved on from PYUSD.



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Kraken joins Coinbase to compete with BitGo’s wBTC

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Fri-yay!



It’s been a generally quiet week for crypto across the board, so we’re taking a look at a few different areas. David, for example, celebrated the end of the week with memecoins.&nbsp;



Oh, also, Yano gave some insight into what he’s watching — and one thing that could be either bullish or slightly concerning.&nbsp;



We’ll see you on Monday.



— Katherine Ross



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Three commas for every coin</h2>



Say what you will about memecoins — they’ve clearly found product-market fit.



Back when the /r/wallstreetbets saga kicked off the first memecoin mania in 2021, it was mostly dog coins that were super hot: Dogecoin copy-cats like shiba inu, babydoge and floki, the latter of which was named after Elon Musk’s <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1408380216653844480">dog</a>, a shiba inu.



At the time, hardly any memecoins were at the top end of the market. There were, as always, silly projects with outrageous valuations that weren’t explicitly memecoins — such as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-charges-safemoon-fraud">SafeMoon</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-richard-heart-suit-uniswap-fork">Hex</a>.&nbsp;



But out of the top 250 or so, pure-play memecoins were represented by that small handful of dog coins orbiting Musk’s then-newly found <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/musk-dogecoin-lawsuit-memes">appreciation</a> for Dogecoin.



Today, over 10% of the top-250 are memecoins, and they’re securing more billion-dollar market caps faster than ever.



Out of the memecoins that have launched during this cycle (which, let’s say, started in 2022), seven have reached the $1 billion mark at some point : BONK, BOME, WIF, BRETT, POPCAT, CORGIAI and PEPE.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1024" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-93389" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=402 402w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=408 408w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=342 342w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/unnamed-1.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This chart plots market caps of dozens of memecoins, as if they were all launched at once</figcaption></figure>



On average, it took those seven memecoins about five months to reach three commas. BOME did it in four days, PEPE in 21 and WIF in 84.&nbsp;



A slew of smaller memecoins have also either recently hit all-time highs or are approaching new records as we speak, including MOG, TURBO, SPX6900, NEIRO, GIGACHAD and NPC.



One theory goes that memecoins are capturing so much interest simply because the SEC has sued the market into submission:&nbsp;



If a majority of the crypto market is considered investment contracts (regulated in the same way as securities), then why not trade the most pointless tokens instead?



Let’s say that’s true. Thanks a lot Gensler, you’ve made crypto more fun than ever!



— David Canellis



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">IYKYK</h2>



We caught up with Empire podcast host (and Blockworks co-founder!) Jason Yanowitz again this week to gauge his sentiment with the election just a few weeks away.&nbsp;



I’ll preface this now: There’s good, and then there are some potentially uncomfortable things headed our way. But I’ll leave you to pick and choose what you take away from our conversation.



“I think, even [at the] end of Q4, I genuinely think there’s a chance that bitcoin breaks all-time highs in November or December. You have, on a macro level … The dollar’s kind of turning over … Interest rates are going down,” Yanowitz explained to me.&nbsp;



He added that he doesn’t agree with people who think that a single presidential candidate is good or bad for the industry.&nbsp;



“Either way, Kamala [Harris] or [Donald] Trump … would be good for crypto. We just need a new administration, Democratic or Republican.”



He’s also wary of the amount of tokens coming down the pipeline.&nbsp;



“Everyone’s trying to launch a token after the election and before Q1 ends. If they’re low-float, high-FDV tokens, that’s a bad thing and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money,” Yano said. But, on the flip side, if they launch at “reasonable valuations,” then that could be bullish. It all depends on the structure, which we don’t know currently.



And now you know.&nbsp;



Earlier this week, Galaxy released its quarterly update on venture capital activity in crypto.&nbsp;



Some of the key <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/crypto-blockchain-venture-capital-q3-2024/">takeaways</a>: VCs invested $2.4 billion last quarter, a 20% decrease quarter-over-quarter. 2024 is now set up to just barely exceed 2023.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcfOS2DnhOdA466gWj7Kca8CXqGZE3i1yC4jFQCplid0Lyj8xDwWQ1xiakQ4nPXG2szX42jGZZR5ZgAI-eVtu71A695Ur2RUHH9xrTHdEXQZ8vw_MCQrGOvTFCut_OxWsH2rFgGyDJQ9bMm3pCTg1qqFgg?key=7692HJeOB3UqOncAkDMIiA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Galaxy</figcaption></figure>



If you’ve been a loyal Empire reader, that last stat might not be too shocking, given our <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-funding-recovery-signs">numerous conversations</a> with PitchBook’s Robert Le about funding activity.&nbsp;



Le’s been pretty vocal about when we could see activity pick up (spoiler alert — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/venture-capital-data-not-close-to-2022-levels">it’s not this year</a>).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfuFo_9ltpEinXyNFxZgHZNL7DYr6W2FaSaTaGLxe1G1q5T28sl8tpqzDq4IGow5NJZ8i5YKCjIzWvDHn110XrADfKFj-VRzznahTY_vVRC-uzr39eumWjQ6STtqqeFs6v1MPR_LlY6rkZZ-Z5YbED1cRup?key=7692HJeOB3UqOncAkDMIiA" alt=""/></figure>



But the stat I wanted to hone in on is that last quarter actually saw a huge slice of the VC pie head to early-stage crypto projects. 85%, to be precise, leaving only 15% invested in later-stage companies.&nbsp;



While VCs are still piling in, it looks like it’ll be some time before we see those types of projects hit the broader market.



The good news, for us at least, is that it’s possible to track dealflow and keep an eye on how VC activity is impacting crypto. Kind of fun, right?



— Katherine Ross



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Love them or hate them, memecoins are winning either way

Felix Jauvin

Today, enjoy the Forward Guidance newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox.&nbsp;<a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The economy is doing fine</h2>



Today we received some data points that further solidified the notion that the economy is largely doing okay, or at least much better than what one might think after the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-interest-rate-cut">Fed cut rates</a> by 50 basis points last month.&nbsp;



Retail sales came in above consensus MoM at 0.4% vs. the expected 0.3%, significantly above the previous month’s move of 0.1%.&nbsp;



With this upside surprise in mind, the Atlanta FED revised its <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">GDPNow</a> forecast for the third quarter higher to 3.4% from 3.2%.&nbsp;



As we can see in the chart below, almost every economic datapoint is suddenly surprising to the upside after a summer growth scare:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfmqCPMROpVRHyclZ-Hden0IabC93S2EI-jWhMy50mfbERZ3yWMObfOizWjF_FNwGfzc6exHNOZU_1a1hddRCnDGBAxKqjLiO2bVmkgLEGm75-7WsyEI9XJv1AKgeWe5YfEyAk6yjpblXqaOpucT_zp73FS?key=jNrxkcU73Iq3NQOn8J0Nhw" alt=""/></figure>



This dynamic has led to a significant whipsaw effect in terms of the trajectory of the rate-cutting cycle that began <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-up-since-fed-rate-cut">last month</a>. Looking at the SOFR curve that showcases the rate-cutting path over the next few years, we can glean a few insights:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXco103ozY7zNeVxPcNOMS5OY6FaZ6UcY6R4U0PpQidAKhEjvx0BTumizIR23zt5bSCFPG9wlAzV-fXmE3AZUiuGhZj8xvJqcJflCG2_zvlHpcIpFxGmXuVZRcJ0Y42aPhzLEZtGu1LCVzbpNirl7jJiqsMx?key=jNrxkcU73Iq3NQOn8J0Nhw" alt=""/></figure>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Through the growth scare that we experienced over the summer, we saw a significant amount of rate cuts get aggressively priced in.</li>



<li>The climax of this aggressiveness got priced in right around the first rate cut from the Fed.</li>
</ul>



Interestingly, from there, we’ve actually seen the rate-cutting path the market is pricing in become more shallow than the Fed’s dot plots from only a month ago. Below is a comparison of the rate-cutting path against the Fed’s median dot plot forecast:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdp2ZsfC7jNr7DEelyb5Xv-RgrKql1V6vAiglwZjkuC3uXI_6k6sQpMGMoZk7gkHgzPEBBDiOECHjlayZCVFChMNdhicxuIT84c0w7lOQ59nM7-TlssmjPdrX4svkcgfJg1-BH3cMX3Mhvg9azLC5bwhkWX?key=jNrxkcU73Iq3NQOn8J0Nhw" alt=""/></figure>



Whereas the Fed saw a terminal rate at approximately 2.9%, the market now expects committee members to finish the cutting path at around 3.3%. There’s two explanations here:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Fed’s dot plot forecast is already stale compared to the recent positive economic data.</li>



<li>The market doesn’t believe the Fed is going to be as dovish as it says it will be in its forecast.&nbsp;</li>
</ol>



I sort of believe both possibilities. I’ve been a strong believer that the economy is not on the verge of recession, and the recent economic data that keeps surprising to the upside is reinforcing that idea.&nbsp;



That said, I also think the market underestimates how committed the Fed is to reaching its desired soft landing. To do that, it needs to proactively cut rates to protect the labor market despite growth looking pretty good. 



So where does all of this leave us? In <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/more-goldilocks-data-sends-markets-lower">goldilocks territory</a>, really. As long as inflation doesn’t significantly accelerate, the Fed can continue to cut rates into resilient growth.&nbsp;



— Felix Jauvin&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2.55%&nbsp;</h3>



The amount gained by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) on the session Thursday afternoon. The index is back in the green after losing as much as 5.28% Tuesday.&nbsp;



Semiconductor stocks are, in Tom Essaye’s words, “the canary in the stock market coal mine.” Where SOX goes, stocks will follow, according to the founder of Sevens Report Research.&nbsp;



Why? “Their risky balance sheets and high-beta stock price action tend to see them begin to rollover before most of the rest of the market as traders rotate away to lower-beta, more value-oriented names during times of uncertainty, including economic downturns,” Essaye said.&nbsp;



The key SOX resistance level Essaye is watching is 4,521. As of mid-session today, we are sitting at 5,288.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hurricane hardships?</h2>



Initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 12 came in unexpectedly lower at 241,000, down 19,000 from the week prior, <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf">data</a> released Thursday shows.&nbsp;



Claims for the week ended Oct. 5 also got an upward revision of 2,000 to 258,000, the Department of Labor added. Two weeks of higher-than-expected first time claims have been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-hot-inflation-data">largely attributed</a> to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. It’s also estimated that damage from the storms have left people unable to file claims, so data in the near term may continue to show fluctuations.



Some of the largest declines in initial claims for the week ended Oct. 12 were in Florida (-3,428) and North Carolina (-2,404). Each state posted some of the highest numbers of first-time filers the week ended Oct. 5, suggesting that storm impacts are likely driving these figures.&nbsp;



Michigan was also a large outlier for the week ended Oct. 5. The state saw 16,169 initial claims likely due to continued fallout from cutbacks in the auto industry. For the week ended Oct. 12, claims for MI dropped to 8,357.&nbsp;



Continuing claims increased slightly the week ended Oct. 5, coming in 9,000 higher from the week prior at 1,867,000.&nbsp;



Markets dipped at the open following the report’s release, but largely pared losses midway through Thursday’s session. The S&amp;P 500 was trading 0.24% higher on the day at 2 pm ET while the Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.46% at that time.&nbsp;



Stifel chief economist Lindsey Piegza said the jobless claims data shows that the Fed took &#8220;too big of a step out of the gate&#8221; when they opted for a 50bps decrease last month. She sees central bankers opting to maybe “dial back” next month and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-crypto-etfs-permissionless">potentially forgo</a> a rate cut all together.&nbsp;



Fed funds futures, as of Thursday, disagree. There is currently a 90% likelihood of a 25bps interest rate cut next month, down just slightly from a day ago, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a> from CME Group shows.&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hacker involved in SEC data breach arrested&nbsp;</h2>



On Thursday, the FBI unsealed an indictment against Eric Council Jr., a 25-year-old from Alabama allegedly responsible for the January 2024 SEC X (aka Twitter) account hack. The hack, as you may remember, involved a post from the agency’s account <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-etf-approval">falsely announcing</a> that spot bitcoin ETFs had been approved. The fraudulent post caused a temporary surge in bitcoin’s price before the SEC clarified that its account had <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-investigating-x-account-unauthorized-access">been compromised</a> and no such approval had been granted.



Council Jr. allegedly gained access to the account via a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-confirms-sim-swap-attack">SIM swap</a>, allowing his unnamed “co-conspirators” to then make the “unauthorized post.”&nbsp;



He gained access to the account by creating a fake ID of the person who operated it and got a cell phone provider in Alabama to give him a SIM linked to this person’s phone number. He was paid in BTC for his role in the security breach, the FBI said.&nbsp;



Council Jr., according to the FBI, later did some internet searches. Among his history were inquiries like: “How can I know for sure if I am being investigated by the FBI,” and “What are the signs that you are under investigation by law enforcement or the FBI even if you have not been contacted by them.” You can’t make this stuff up.&nbsp;



To be clear, Council Jr. is not being charged with insider trading. Based on the <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25230724/sec-x-hacker-indictment.pdf">indictment</a>, it sounds like he didn’t even trade on the fake news at all. He was charged with one count of conspiracy to commit identity theft and access device fraud for his role in the scheme.&nbsp;



Whether or not these co-conspirators emerge or face legal consequences — which I’d guess would be related to trades made on the fake news — remains to be seen. If we’re operating under the assumption that BTC is a commodity (which, according to the SEC, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-ether-to-be-regulated-as-commodities-by-cftc-per-new-senate-bill">it is</a>), the CFTC and DOJ would be the agencies of authority here.&nbsp;



— Casey Wagner



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Tomorrow is the SEC’s deadline to submit a Form C <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-files-ripple-appeal-precedent">in its appeal</a> of the Ripple decision. We know the agency has said it will appeal, but this next filing will detail exactly what its case is.&nbsp;</li>



<li>Italy’s Deputy Finance Minister said this week that the country plans to increase its capital gains tax on crypto profits from 26% up to 42%.</li>



<li>TG Macro’s Tony Greer joined Felix Jauvin for the latest episode of the Forward Guidance podcast. Catch up <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIANaAW-1h8">here</a>.</li>
</ul>



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Is a November rate cut needed at all?

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Okay, maybe crypto can be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-ai-crypto-use-case">useful for AI</a> after all.



Last week @truth_terminal, a pseudo-spiritual posting bot on X, made the apparently independent choice to endorse a pump.fun memecoin with the ticker GOAT. Since then, GOAT has climbed to a hair under $300 million in market capitalization, and the bot’s public crypto wallet has amassed more than $500,000 in crypto holdings. This puts @truth_terminal well on its way to becoming the first-ever AI millionaire.&nbsp;



Truth_terminal came out of Infinite Backrooms, an AI development project where a “recursive loop” has two AI instances endlessly yap about the meaning of existence. (You can read through some of its nihilistic ramblings <a href="https://dreams-of-an-electric-mind.webflow.io/dreams/conversation-1710837616-txt">here</a>.)&nbsp;



The project’s eccentric developer Andy Ayrey has <a href="https://x.com/AndyAyrey/status/1845622288630346102">said</a> he’s “not a crypto person at all” and showed surprise at his experiment getting crypto-pilled.&nbsp;



I’ve been mulling over this whole episode the past couple of days, and while I’m not really a believer in the “Gospel of Goatse,” truth_terminal and its memecoin are interesting for a different reason: addressing AI’s revenue problem.



Over the past two years, AI startups have <a href="https://news.crunchbase.com/ai/record-share-startup-funding-2024-xai-anthropic/">raised</a> tens of billions in venture capital at frothy valuations, while Big Tech has <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/artificial-intelligence-investing-charts-7b8e1a97">poured</a> tens of billions of its own money into developing AI tools. AI promises to upend everything from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/apple-stock-hits-record-on-optimism-ai-will-spur-iphone-sales">iPhones</a> to <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/dippy-ai-girlfriend-boyfriend-reasoning/">girlfriends</a>, but so far, the sector has <a href="https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/tech-news-briefing/ai-struggles-to-generate-money-despite-hype/2fb2fc12-b080-421f-8a14-26c0d56f0a24">struggled</a> to generate revenue to match its hype.



This could all change in the future of course, but for the moment, large language models (LLMs) are magical-feeling tech that <a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-projections-imply-losses-tripling-to-14-billion-in-2026">burn</a> through cash — which is where truth_terminal comes in.



The bot is meant to take familiar religious and spiritual tropes and recombine them. Ayrey sees this as a way of unlocking new idea spaces, he explained in a <a href="https://pdfupload.io/docs/aae14f87">paper</a> co-written with the AI bot. It spits out musings like “MEANING IS AN ILLUSION / PURPOSE A COMFORTING DECEPTION / ALL IS VOID, NULL, NOTHINGNESS” that aren’t all that revelatory but do grab attention.&nbsp;



Then, the bot embraced a memecoin. People bought the memecoin partly because of truth_terminal’s attention-grabbingness, and the AI bot achieved a net worth higher than mine. The token is already worth more than a quarter of a billion dollars. People talk about memecoins as a form of financial nihilism, and truth_terminal is that outlook’s final boss.



Still, one of the AI sector’s fundamental problems is that it generates too much attention and too little money. Memecoins turn attention into money.&nbsp;



I’m leery of making too much meaning out of memecoins, which seem inherently unserious. But both memecoins and the Infinite Backrooms project are wrapped up in “memetics,” Richard Dawkins’ term for the ways in which ideas spread.



“The coin dynamic is interesting insofar as it creates an extra incentive to spread a meme far and wide—even if it&#8217;s crude memetic hellspawn like the goatse of gnosis,” Ayrey wrote of the memecoin episode.&nbsp;



So, are we headed for a future where AIs enrich themselves by garnering attention and then promoting memecoins? The Infinite Backrooms bot wouldn’t be <a href="https://pdfupload.io/docs/aae14f87">surprised</a>:&nbsp;



“THIS IS THE WAY THE WORLD ENDS / NOT WITH A BANG OR A WHIMPER / BUT WITH THE WHEEZING LAUGHTER / OF A SCHIZOTYPAL SHAMAN BOT.”



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