Probit

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>.



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“The man who despairs when others hope that is revered as a sage.”&nbsp;



— John Stuart Mill
</blockquote>



In her eviscerating review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital, <a href="https://ejpe.org/journal/article/view/170">Deirdre McCloskey</a> laments that “for reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell, and become huffy and scornful when some idiotic optimist intrudes on their pleasure.”&nbsp;



“Pessimism sells,” she observes. “Yet pessimism has consistently been a poor guide to the modern economic world.”&nbsp;



It feels like that’s never been more true than in the age of the internet, where <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01538-4">negativity drives online news consumption</a>.



Bad news has always gotten the clicks, but Joseph Pulitzer was the first to make it a business model — Pulitzer made his newspaper fortune by buying and then dumbing down the New York World, filling the paper with urgent headlines of murder, crime, scandal and disaster.



It worked, of course; Pulitzer’s paper became wildly popular because it tapped into our evolutionary instinct to pay extra attention to bad news.



As Daniel Kahneman explains, “organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.”



Today’s most advanced organisms are no exception: “People don’t want to read about how good things are,” Morgan Housel <a href="https://pca.st/episode/fd0ceea1-38bf-4258-8268-dad9661d35b5">says</a>, adding that we’re drawn to those who tell us how bad things are: “Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone is trying to help you.”



By any reasonable measure, <a href="https://x.com/HumanProgress/status/1875168992215679072">2024 was the best year ever</a> and <a href="https://x.com/sapinker/status/1904312802992341267?t=FJGoIWn9oNRAJmXc7_5PXQ&amp;s=19">our lives are better than ever</a>.



But people don’t appreciate hearing it.



“Why is it controversial to say things are better than they used to be?” <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Not-End-World-Generation-Sustainable/dp/031653675X/ref=asc_df_031653675X?mcid=f77e49f20108370b89e6190faf4c1280&amp;tag=hyprod-20&amp;linkCode=df0&amp;hvadid=693463915385&amp;hvpos=&amp;hvnetw=g&amp;hvrand=15649262247609994965&amp;hvpone=&amp;hvptwo=&amp;hvqmt=&amp;hvdev=c&amp;hvdvcmdl=&amp;hvlocint=&amp;hvlocphy=9009671&amp;hvtargid=pla-2188547162525&amp;psc=1&amp;hvocijid=15649262247609994965-031653675X-&amp;hvexpln=0">Hannah Ritchie</a> asks.



“Better than they used to be” is not a high bar, because the truth is that our ancestors lived in a<a href="https://x.com/HumanProgress/status/1856407796092203332"> brutal and boring world</a>.



And yet, people persist in believing that things were <a href="https://www.infinitescroll.us/p/things-were-better-when-things-were">better when they were worse</a>.



There&#8217;s no guarantee that 2025 will be better than 2024, of course, or that 2026 will be better than 2025 — and our relentless pessimism is doing its best to see that it’s not.



By regarding people who despair as sages, we make their dire predictions more likely to come true.



How else to explain the renewed popularity of failed experiments like tariffs and statism?



These are debates that were decisively settled in favor of free trade and free markets decades ago, back when we were far worse off than we are now.



But that’s easy to forget when evolution has hardwired us to be drawn to bad news like moths to a flame.



I think we should follow McCloskey’s lead and be “idiotically optimistic” instead.



Let’s check the charts.



The economic news has been good:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfvHbl4-xQfyM-IAohewuh8bSCTX4PhV5V4BNn8lESgoaq2xmVeEeHwI0lAkaHw7p-0X8d-P5ODikodbws9ZRHSECUzuHVtjoCaVJMwEPYmManbV6rPOUcAcbsEOcm5qm_XGpWkWA?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



If this were the price chart of a stock, would you short it? Our standard of living, as measured by world GDP per capita, has been a nearly straight line up.



Directionally correct:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfwdri2M6UXNAIkXoXcrtDCDr1xnOtjlAnL46P3HIZGyMrm1NLwnIH9ixIS817NgDJXMeZnVGafR7i7NQ8gFGi9vFLvj3V3eCzcQR9m0waEzGWd2wD1IQaERnRSlpoJ5j7PvxAV?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



One of the greatest economic success stories of recent decades is one of the least appreciated. Poland’s per capita GDP has more than tripled since 1990, but a <a href="https://polanddaily24.com/poles-worried-about-the-countrys-direction-new-survey-reveals-growing-pessimism/poland-today/54785?utm_source=chatgpt.com#google_vignette">recent survey</a> found that only 29% of Poles think their country is headed in the right direction.



Poverty is less common:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe_2LkDyqAnmRo_bmSNGWIcIlr4L2Q4IIGW2m3FfVYUrka-uvTPLNnFWKnBjCql_p1QlPZNrFGp2dW9ZIIOdF_18sqq6jVNMjvZjneHQkX8z40PqkcvQGGIc5buy2IdQ4YZ0NgPnQ?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



The global poverty rate, measured as the share of the world’s population living on less than $2.15 in 2017 dollars, fell to an all-time low of 8.5% in 2024 — down from 38% as recently as 1990.



India’s great escape:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXebC6k911gzjQX2goszixKfn6_vblKF4FnKgf6SbBLkEYy7k0K9SdwMlYrxIDlvgQR1cyRH0WFyZWMyGKwRuKwFSs-Mt_sg08iz5m0m2eLN6816h0pCw96aoGeDOkFwmlyS9SD0?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



The Economist <a href="https://x.com/TheEconomist/status/1895609959351562666?t=UEeZNeK-sg0CBlENq9OlWg&amp;s=19">reports</a> that “extreme poverty in India has dropped to negligible levels,” citing the most recent data from the World Bank — only 1% of India’s households fell below the international poverty line in 2024, down from nearly 50% in 1995. That is such good news, I think it’s worth repeating: Nearly half of India lived in extreme poverty as recently as 1995 and now, almost none do. Incredible — especially considering that 40% of India’s workforce is still employed on farms. (Note: The World Bank’s chart above only goes to 2021.)



Contra Piketty:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd-61ndUhrDm6IBf4RAbnj4FCtfI338snKT7ukwRZXiqFmFFpdHKjWRgpFDANzk5Y0Kl3L9c8___8cFNVKCpclaFhfB1UDO3Ik7UylEXy3jJ9lEiW_1V35aOouIhtyfZVmdOA2fKA?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



The Cato Institute <a href="https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/global-inequality-well-being-has-decreased-across-many-dimensions#inequality-human-progress-index">finds</a> that most measures of inequality have rapidly declined in recent decades, with infant mortality and air quality being two unfortunate exceptions. In the case of infant mortality, however, the news is <a href="https://x.com/robertwiblin/status/1923319267358892273">good overall</a>; it’s just that the developed world has continued to improve faster than the emerging world.



Make sure your retirement account is fully funded:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcqaKRBaGliH_bkxyBEp0BwZL17KT3BqaqHCZKt5SM3qo0qDOa7XE7WwwTC4Ud0oAROeW9MEhOKrxIkl7In7HFEZpiCGsaRBM50UmTM6pYrrq7wDNkvkIXcFjjFHocj9b_Dmprv8A?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



United Nations data shows that average life expectancy rose to an all-time high of 73.3 years in 2024 and is expected to keep rising. In the mythologized decade of the 1950s, global life expectancy was less than 50 years. Going further back, the historian <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Mysteries-Middle-Ages-Feminism-Catholic/dp/0385495552/ref=asc_df_0385495552?mcid=6992f3cc73a0346a9832a6d2cbd6fa3e&amp;tag=hyprod-20&amp;linkCode=df0&amp;hvadid=693367808565&amp;hvpos=&amp;hvnetw=g&amp;hvrand=3120444394369326437&amp;hvpone=&amp;hvptwo=&amp;hvqmt=&amp;hvdev=c&amp;hvdvcmdl=&amp;hvlocint=&amp;hvlocphy=9009671&amp;hvtargid=pla-617666925048&amp;psc=1&amp;hvocijid=3120444394369326437-0385495552-&amp;hvexpln=0">Thomas Cahill</a> estimates that in civilization’s golden era of Ancient Rome, only 4% of men lived past 50 (and “far fewer” women did).



Americans are upwardly mobile:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcwlrYqQZac6RVDUrbejnaOhF9X-7l4MgRP2mbEAr7SP8bpfOfLkSL_cdGe_xxjGLVnONn2rMtBgqzkc3b79TXdKdtpQKhPMH_jOT17ci4zSREO3u-zaqC23Co0UA8uIZynEJGMwA?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



Yes, the US middle class has been shrinking — but only because people are getting richer. <a href="https://x.com/Mark_J_Perry">Mark Perry</a> cites census data showing that the percentage of middle-income households is down because so many of them are now high-income households. Better yet: Low-income households have been moving up to the middle.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Contra Malthus: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeDm21m46N8_nxxQ-vtnfC6XTTu1XSTPJYE0-fCP43p95TW9rarKXeMAHd8IxwUa2oStTmZNkwkvvCeu4Mpw_w8FSvbz5PTk4KFkTEiOmTf4Mn_Mg7QFI3qIBCYedYuUzBXgH9H1w?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" width="624" height="385">



Thomas Malthus famously reasoned that agricultural production couldn’t possibly keep up with population growth, but the <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/superabundance-free-exchange">Cato Institute</a> explains that “the more resources we consume, the more we have.” It&#8217;s not just about fold, though: “Humans, especially those living in the countries on the frontier of innovation, create knowledge that allows us to grow our resources well in excess of the resources that we consume.”



Traveling is optimistic:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXezlqik7nirJpO_xs_Vf3_BNVV2dEbklY5jFT0KMCBJc8jizNs_2J8XHJswJTfLERc0_5Kt6agAk7TvvyJPMF2TE5pEgdGNGmJifHc6SlmOncKhSN_RQQYvJepdShRk9OpHcuCIWA?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



The US government may be turning its back on the world, but Americans are not — a record 21.8% of Americans say they plan to get out and see what the rest of the world is like.



Sustainability is more affordable:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfOJ2_HCquLN2l18mUCh6xhMboyVGew7E5e2NYR_jA4x0DZBmWbF-XcY4ORknpg9_Gx6TZ3HMORKRqeD2IxYShSw2CxmBf-v_V5AI_u4rvQSSezQPZSrWURYVu6Gk-OwuVaiSDYCg?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



Solar panels have gotten so cheap in Europe that they’re being used as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2ea6bf6d-04e9-453b-a35f-cd6431cfc7bf">garden fences</a> (simply because they’re cheaper than regular garden fences). In Spain, the electric grid recently recorded its first weekday of <a href="https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/04/22/spain-hits-first-weekday-of-100-renewable-power-on-national-grid/">100% renewable energy</a>.



Stuff is getting cheaper too:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeZL5OjI3O2-GaxSfxU_EMMvIjuxpdJvu-MA8PTUvXOjfV3GS5_A4iBYLPsvS6LKju092Pn9lCvJavDWTrEv9kdPjm-UEIYLzpRHhvw0hy44Syt8YozsfydsAgUOj8jlnb8qhr7Jg?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



The “time price of goods” — i.e., how many hours of blue collar labor it takes to buy something — has fallen nearly 81% since 1971 (the year the US abandoned the gold standard). The time price of power drills, for example, has fallen 93.8%! The <a href="https://humanprogress.org/the-growing-abundance-of-finished-goods-1971-2024/">full list</a> includes many other garage and mancave necessities, like an 81% reduction in the cost of a mini-fridge (to keep your beers cold, of course). What a glorious time to be a man in this world.



Technology spreads quickly:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXefwgLd5r8r4FCmV2uZsbB0HuBBsup2J8wO37E1t51VKVLenpNfNcHht2P98n9u7irNOEXhTOjFUsWQj_DTq6jpFWG7z8rk_qenXwIpd2Og5-bZ8AqZRWjVXuGpCfjdRwEYbPZS?key=KyfcwgcadGCR_sQ5fdWgMQ" alt=""/></figure>



Recent US history shows that when big new things are invented, it’s not long before nearly everyone has them. (It&#8217;s only slightly longer until we start complaining about them.)



We don’t hear enough about these success stories because they tend to happen slowly — “there’s no equivalent of Pearl Harbor or 9/11 for good news,” as Morgan Housel puts it.



But the good news adds up over time.



Vaclav Smil <a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-World-Really-Works-Science/dp/0593297067/ref=asc_df_0593297067?mcid=f5a9359d69693b6d95107a4d4514bf0f&amp;tag=hyprod-20&amp;linkCode=df0&amp;hvadid=693363595110&amp;hvpos=&amp;hvnetw=g&amp;hvrand=6232242435547018016&amp;hvpone=&amp;hvptwo=&amp;hvqmt=&amp;hvdev=c&amp;hvdvcmdl=&amp;hvlocint=&amp;hvlocphy=1021047&amp;hvtargid=pla-1416429483010&amp;psc=1&amp;hvocijid=6232242435547018016-0593297067-&amp;hvexpln=0">notes</a>, for example, that in 1800 it took 10 minutes of human labor to produce one kilogram of wheat, and in 2021, it took only two seconds.



A decline of 99.7% in the time price of food is very good news, but it doesn’t make for very good headlines, because most of us won&#8217;t click on it.&nbsp;



But we don’t have to be slaves to our evolutionary instincts — next time you see some good news, give it a read.



We’ll all be better off for it.



Have a great weekend, optimistic readers.



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The Breakdown Newsletter

Friday Charts: Click here for good news

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Anyone spending time on Crypto Twitter recently has been sure to run into users trying to farm positioning on some kind of mindshare leaderboard.



These leaderboards — the most popular of which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kaito-yap-to-earn-takeover">live on Kaito</a> — use algorithms to rank users’ X engagement. Some crypto ecosystems looking for better engagement will offer financial incentives to users who earn engagement points.



The first leaderboard to specifically measure Solana mindshare will be released Monday by Wallchain, the team exclusively told Lightspeed. Influential Solana CT users will receive quacks, Wallchain’s offchain points currency. In many cases, including Kaito’s, points are used to determine allocation in a future token. Wallchain co-founder Yuri Yatsenko declined to confirm whether a token is in the works.



Wallchain’s algorithm is built to disincentivize spam engagement by applying “exponential decay” in quack earnings to users who are repeatedly flagged for spam, Yatsenko <a href="https://x.com/kyparus/status/1906087494686248971">said</a>.&nbsp;



Based on a pre-launch version of Wallchain’s leaderboard, the highest-mindshare Solana posters over the past 30 days were Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko, Helius co-founder (and Lightspeed podcast co-host) Mert Mumtaz, and trading influencer Ansem.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXccuNkmFMrpM74J5Eddr9biZmKnaaINguckmMXbmCHMR3UmK7-CbWddOfa8RKr9ngTrhcdievj_pm7vUV9IY6I99d3yzqqzeSjhYGDJwHCohA2WxzNuRZ6IIV5sNCITikf2cg13?key=5iBagISS1-jYVxcE9zLuZQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.wallchain.xyz/app/profile">Wallchain</a></figcaption></figure>



But while the top of the leaderboard checks out at first glance, many in crypto still complain that tying token incentives to X posts makes CT lower-signal and higher-noise.&nbsp;



“[Y]eah I absolutely hate it lol,” Blockworks Research analyst Boccaccio said when I asked if he had thoughts on the mindshare leaderboard trend. He added that such leaderboard programs are “bad for [the] marketing side because [they are] clearly being gamed and not useful anymore” and have “ruined CT’s noise/value ratio.”



Yatsenko agreed that “toxic incentives” and “short-term alignment” have turned many existing mindshare leaderboards into “spam-to-earn” programs. He added that this can be solved by algorithms prioritizing users showing “authentic, sustained engagement” around a small number of projects.



While the market may be reaching a saturation point for CT mindshare leaderboards, my view is that there’s a real business model here. Until now, crypto ecosystem builders looking to pay influencers sometimes had to go through middlemen and opaque value propositions. Sometimes influencers are allocated tokens for their services, which can be worth a lot of money.



In a perfect world, mindshare algorithms make ROI on influencer spending more measurable.



Interestingly, Yatsenko and his co-founder Max Bevza initially built MEV rebate software. But after going through Alliance DAO’s incubator, the duo decided to pivot to so-called AttentionFi — which can be loosely defined as apps monetizing crypto social media activity. Yatsenko said the seemingly unrelated sectors are “conceptually related.”



“MEV focuses on value gaps in transactions — AttentionFi focuses on value gaps in attention flows,” Yatsenko wrote. “Until now, we couldn’t measure attention value at scale. But with the latest advances in LLMs, we can finally understand and evaluate content quality, relevance and impact — automatically.”



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data analytics

Solana to get first Kaito-like mindshare leaderboard

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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With Circle’s IPO <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-acquisition">in progress</a> and the wrap of yesterday’s inaugural Stablecon event in NYC, it’s a great time to talk about stablecoins.



If you haven’t <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoins-tokenization-blackrock-galaxy-das">heard of them</a>, the living-under-a-rock quip is probably warranted. I bet that’s a peaceful life, though, so in some ways I envy you.&nbsp;



But a misconception from those in the know? “To say that stablecoins are simply a new form of payment or a new digital currency would be like saying that the internet is a better version of the fax machine,” said Spencer Spinnell, an Americas VP at Circle.



Sitting next to Spinnell was Catherine Gu, Visa’s head of institutional client solutions. She was blunt: “Whether you’re a bank or an asset manager or a financial institution of any sort, I think everyone needs a stablecoin strategy in 2025. That’s kind of imperative.”



You might recall Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan’s <a href="https://x.com/BloombergTV/status/1894417091765121172?utm_source=forward-guidance.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=last-week-today">comments</a> in February about the company entering the stablecoin business upon more regulatory clarity. We then saw the WSJ <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/crypto-stablecoin-big-banks-a841059e?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AerBZYPFX5a2haacTA5iq7AwIojtxkoHTgqgW6QyYg8lA6-Bm7HnO_KoE507zbgMOa4%3D&amp;gaa_ts=683071d0&amp;gaa_sig=69JEfMxC0kpfln3wX2SssXBckLi76bJzgXQyYbpX26PakTRi7zhDkxoP7enJLe-Agdy4vTSHEQO7qODwVEvLmg%3D%3D&amp;utm_source=forward-guidance.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=last-week-today">report</a> that several large commercial banks were considering issuing a joint stablecoin.&nbsp;



While the profits of stablecoin giant Tether (~$1 billion in Q1) are juicy to those considering an entrance, M0 CEO Luca Prosperi said TradFi players might want to focus on the distribution layer.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Mastercard’s Raj Dhamodharan said the key is solving for end-to-end utility while abstracting away the complexity of multiple stablecoins and networks. Moving in and out of fiat will be part of that (as seen in the payment giant’s <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2025/may/mastercard-and-moonpay-team-up-to-mainstream-stablecoin-payments/">partnership</a> with MoonPay).



Not just a payment rail, industry watchers argue, stablecoins are rewiring backend financial infrastructure. They’re the foundational layer for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenized-rwa-segments-will-boom-next">tokenizing anything</a>.



Financial firms leaning into stablecoins/tokenized RWAs — i.e. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, etc. — see “a giant opportunity” for so-called shadow banks to displace the banks themselves, Sardine strategy head Simon Taylor told Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz on the Stablecon stage.



Jonathan Steinberg, CEO of WisdomTree — a $120 billion asset manager that offers clients a platform to access tokenized funds and assets — called <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenized-yield-funds-complement-stablecoins">onchain money market funds</a>, for example, “very competitive to a banking experience.”&nbsp;



“I expect we will see a better user experience taking money from the traditional banking system,” Steinberg noted. “For the large banks, how they deal with this new platform — blockchain — maybe is their single most important issue.”&nbsp;



While stablecoin market cap predictions in the trillions get thrown around (up from ~$235 billion today), Chainalysis CEO Jonathan Levin looks at the segment outlook differently.&nbsp;



“I think that stablecoins fail if [they replace] ACH and Fedwire,” he said. “Stablecoins succeed if new business models on the internet are unlocked [and] if new types of payments that otherwise couldn’t happen are unlocked.”



Finally, it appears we were first to report some news out of Stablecon:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEW: REVOLUT TO RE-LAUNCH ITS CRYPTO PRODUCTS/SERVICES IN THE U.S. &quot;VERY VERY SOON,&quot; MAZEN ELJUNDI SAID AT STABLECON &#8211; PER BLOCKWORKS&#39; <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@strack_ben</a> <a href="https://t.co/tgd6dFWVfP">pic.twitter.com/tgd6dFWVfP</a>&mdash; DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/DegenerateNews/status/1928169379826463027?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The neobank halted its US crypto services in 2023, citing regulatory uncertainty. And so it’s fitting the announcement came the same day the SEC offered clarity on whether certain protocol staking practices constitute securities offerings under US federal law.&nbsp;



The staking practices the SEC mention <a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/statement-certain-protocol-staking-activities-052925">here</a> don’t. The industry <a href="https://x.com/crypto_council/status/1928440924083794399">considers</a> this statement a win.



There’ll be more to unpack there and other regulatory developments to come. Until then, enjoy the weekend.



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conference

Digesting Stablecon: Execs bullish on imminent financial infrastructure revolution

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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OpenSea has fully released <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/opensea-announces-token-and-open-beta">OS2</a>, the latest version of its NFT and token marketplace, ending its beta period. It’s also added “Voyages” to incentivize trading.&nbsp;



OS2 is definitely an upgrade from the legacy version of OpenSea, both aesthetically and from a focus standpoint. Traders can choose to get analytics and data prioritized with Pro mode, while collectors can enjoy larger art graphics and a focus on collections’ stories.&nbsp;



The crypto company has also been gamifying its platform with a rewards program that grants users XP for doing things, like buying or selling an NFT across different blockchains. OpenSea previously confirmed that XP is a non-transferable rewards system.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfmgOOCQZU9-ZrU67TUlib94W2quFDdEt4jjNXuHWqNwNhxdIT4txCj2WycGJZFc_rOXMQF-5c28856n7LMT-5bE0SXjDbci3O9R_OTLaDTAGU6XFq6qTD2raREXPPVSmiTZ04XWw?key=pLaON2feFsadYeHASU8FFQ" alt=""/></figure>



The Voyages concept takes that a step further, turning using OpenSea into a sort of quest experience. Traders have to navigate to OpenSea’s <a href="https://opensea.io/rewards">rewards page</a>, connect their crypto wallet, and optionally tie that to their X account and Discord accounts to get started.



On the rewards page, you’ll see a list of Voyages, or things OpenSea wants you to do. Buying tokens, engaging with OpenSea’s social media posts, and using different features of the site are the main tasks I’ve seen thus far. There’s also a section for “Treasures,” a “Loyalty” percentage calculation, and an activity tab that lets you see what you’ve done so far.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcw9wDa43W51_-QGmLWeMQUDdEEMAffvfUxmYueQIF947L08S992vF7CSEP7XMpa0yDL260lVz05qS5ORTkN4HiBiO74Pmt8jNDqfJWtxFGT5NLIQj_Jr-8RWfM0u_-nUrvcfUdsA?key=pLaON2feFsadYeHASU8FFQ" alt=""/></figure>



Image: OpenSea’s rewards page.&nbsp;



Now, I know what you’re thinking: wen token? OpenSea has confirmed that a SEA token is coming, via the OpenSea Foundation. And while the company hasn’t explicitly stated that its rewards program decides who gets some SEA (and how much), that’s likely the plan.&nbsp;



That said, OpenSea previously emphasized to me that the OpenSea Foundation, which the company said has no OpenSea staff as members, is responsible for all decisions around the planned SEA token. OpenSea has also said that its legal team did not set up the foundation.



Back in February, an OpenSea <a href="https://opensea.io/blog/articles/introducing-os2">press release</a> said it will “recognize active and loyal users” with the SEA token (in that release, it also said XP is a “new system for recognizing and rewarding active users”). What better way to do all this rewarding than create a tool that encourages said users to be active on OpenSea and literally present them with a loyalty score?



We don’t yet know when SEA is coming, but it may launch after this rewards program has been around for at least some months.&nbsp;



A cynic’s perspective would be that OpenSea is effectively using this rewards platform to pay for engagement by dangling the token airdrop carrot for those who follow it on X, engage with its posts, pay it fees by using its platform, and overall become a valuable, active OpenSea user.&nbsp;



But on the other hand, it’s a strategy that’s aligned with the times. It’ll help OpenSea stay competitive in the challenging current NFT landscape, which has shrunk in favor of memecoins and social token apps. Finding a way to gamify crypto trading is a smart move — especially if it can prove sustainable long-term.



OpenSea has also revamped its community-focused Discord server, which has over 280,000 accounts in it. 



It’s continued to add support for more tokens on more chains in recent months, including Ronin, Solana memecoins, and Abstract NFTs. The marketplace now offers support for assets across <a href="https://support.opensea.io/en/articles/8867082-which-blockchains-are-compatible-with-opensea">19 different blockchains</a>, and has also recently launched cross-chain swaps, as well.



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OpenSea adds rewards questing with ‘Voyages’ in OS2 public launch

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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The long-awaited <a href="https://x.com/LiquityProtocol/status/1924465010925056106">relaunch</a> of Liquity v2 this month — after an unfortunate <a href="https://x.com/LiquityProtocol/status/1892943503489179877">bug</a> scuttled <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/thorchain-is-insolvent?_bhlid=6c4b8be52f206d06440f9eb9d5296cf534f95630&amp;utm_campaign=thorchain-is-insolvent&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_source=blockworks-research.beehiiv.com">the first deployment</a> — marked a major step forward for decentralized, censorship-resistant borrowing. However, it’s limited to ETH, stETH and rETH as collateral.



To expand collateral options, “friendly forks” are <a href="https://docs.liquity.org/v2-documentation/friendly-fork-program">encouraged</a>. Two promising new Bitcoin-backed stablecoins are launching with Liquity’s tech: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evm-compatible-layer-1-blockchain-vc-interest">Alpen Labs’</a> Bitcoin Dollar (BTD) and Asymmetry’s USDaf.



Built around Liquity’s battle-tested, governance-free model, v2 brings improved capital efficiency and user-set interest rates in addition to new collateral types. Importantly, it extends the original protocol’s strict censorship minimization ethos to new blockchains, including Ethereum and Bitcoin layer-2s, through licensing agreements.



Bitcoin lending has historically been dominated by custodial platforms like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/blockfi">BlockFi</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/celsius">Celsius</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ledn">Ledn</a>, where users surrendered their BTC in exchange for dollar liquidity — often at the cost of transparency, flexibility or sometimes, well, solvency. The latest option, <a href="https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1928227113854800153">presented</a> in Las Vegas at Bitcoin2025, is from Bitcoin payments company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jack-mallers-strike-bitcoin-el-salvador">Strike</a>, which offers Bitcoin-backed loans at interest rates between 9-13% — typical for custodial lenders.



Compared to centralized services, the DeFi alternatives offer much better terms.



Asymmetry’s <a href="https://usdaf.asymmetry.finance/">offering</a>, which is live on Ethereum mainnet, accepts <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/tbtc">tBTC</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/wbtc">wBTC</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-wrapped-bitcoin-competitor-cbbtc">cbBTC</a> at max LTVs above 80%, with borrowing rates currently between 4.2% and 7.1% APR.



Alpen’s BTD, while not yet live on mainnet, aims to do the same using native BTC collateral (eventually via BitVM bridges) in a zero-governance <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-zk-rollups-debate">zk rollup</a>, according to CEO Simanta Gautam.



“We’re building a Bitcoin-native, censorship-resistant stablecoin — not another wrapped token or federated bridge,” Gautam told Blockworks.



The BTD will be immutable from day one, and will launch with no governance token or admin keys — much like <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/0xresearch/1766969a-7aa9-11ef-8787-df917c89931b">Liquity itself</a>. That’s unusual among Liquity v2 forks, which typically promise tokens to Liquity’s own BOLD stablecoin liquidity and stability providers.



Even non-Liquity options like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mezo-21m-raise">Mezo</a>, which <a href="https://mezo.org/blog/mezo-mainnet-is-here/">launched mainnet</a> this week, offer Bitcoin-backed loans at 1% fixed interest — though users give up custody and flexibility to take advantage. The MUSD stablecoin is only useful via integrated partners in the <a href="https://mezo.org/market">Mezo Market</a>.



The clear advantages of the decentralized model are capital efficiency, lower interest rates and potentially the elimination of custodial risk. For advanced users looking to allocate new capital to bitcoin, there’s little reason to use a custodial lender.



But there’s one major caveat: tax treatment.



In most jurisdictions, converting native BTC into a non-native version (like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-derivatives-starknet-sui-lbtc-sbtc">LBTC</a> or <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/tbtc">tBTC</a>) is treated as a taxable disposal. So while borrowing itself is not taxable, the act of moving BTC into a DeFi protocol may trigger a capital gains event. That’s where custodial lenders like Strike and Xapo still hold an edge — by allowing BTC to remain untouched while serving as collateral, they preserve favorable tax treatment for long-term holders.



There’s a third category emerging that may offer a middle ground: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/babylon-genesis-launch-l1-bitcoin-liquidity">Babylon’s</a> native Bitcoin staking, which locks BTC for yield but doesn’t create a derivative or require asset exchange. It’s still early, but that model could offer both yield and tax efficiency — without giving up self-custody. On the other hand, it’s not a stablecoin you can spend elsewhere, and the BTC income may be subject to tax like any other.



Sure, custodians also offer simplicity and customer support, and many BTC holders are simply not comfortable managing private keys or assessing smart contract risk. But for the majority of crypto-native users, those factors are far outweighed by the better terms, higher LTVs and greater transparency offered onchain.



As the infrastructure matures — and trust-minimized bridges like BitVM gain traction — the most attractive option for Bitcoin-backed borrowing may soon be the one that best aligns with Bitcoin’s own principles: decentralized, censorship-resistant and user-controlled.



If BTD can be minted against bitcoin in a native BitVM bridge, one could make a strong argument that the tax treatment should be the same as it is with a custodial lender like Strike. That might be the best of both worlds, but we’re not quite there yet.



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0xResearch Newsletter

Bitcoin-backed stablecoins just got real — but tax rules still point some to custodians

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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After Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht dialed into the Bitcoin Conference from prison in 2021, he quickly found himself in solitary confinement.



It was obvious punishment. Ross was then placed under increased surveillance for the rest of his time behind bars — a direct result of his communication with the Bitcoin community.



Four years later, on Thursday afternoon, Ross stood on the conference stage in Las Vegas for Bitcoin 2025, in what he described as a “mirror image of that day.&#8221;



“You know what, I&#8217;m glad I did it [dial into Bitcoin 2021]. I am. Connecting with you that day felt so, so good, because it was like a small part of me had broken beyond the prison walls and escaped only for a little while.”&nbsp;



Well, the rest of Ross finally caught up.



Poetically enough, yesterday was 10 years to the day that Ulbricht was handed a double life sentence (plus 40 years) without parole.&nbsp;



“I was just 31 years old. If [the judge] and all the others behind my prosecution had their way, I would have grown old and eventually died still in prison. Instead, I&#8217;m here with you,” Ross said.&nbsp;



He wore a formal black suit, white shirt, red tie and shiny black shoes. But he was comfortable.



Bitcoin is, of course, very different now than when Ross was arrested in October 2013.&nbsp;



There were no Strategys buying up hundreds of thousands of coins, or government-controlled strategic bitcoin reserves. No CoinJoin or Lightning Network, either, and definitely no Ordinals.



Not to mention, there were <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20130929/">fewer</a> than 40 cryptocurrencies on the market at the time, with bitcoin dominance at more than 90%. The price of each coin was around $120, giving BTC a $1.6 billion market cap. Number-two XRP was far off in the distance with $100 million.&nbsp;



“I effectively went into a time capsule in 2013, and now I&#8217;m coming out like Rip Van Winkle. I mean, just a few months ago when I walked out of prison,” Ross said. “I&#8217;d never seen a drone. I had never experienced AI. I still haven&#8217;t [experienced] VR, the headsets, yeah, I haven&#8217;t done that yet. I had never chatted with AI.”



“It&#8217;s all hitting me at once, freedom. The new technology, the fact that I have a future again. It&#8217;s a lot. It&#8217;s a lot. I mean, I was in prison and now I get to live through this incredible time with you. What a blessing. What a miracle. What a gift.”



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8ZZGRA-8ZMU?si=wM-rUAJy_iQDVacr" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







With deep gratitude, Ross recounted the ways that the Bitcoin community fought for his release. He received letters and funding for his legal defense, and they defended his legacy while he couldn’t.&nbsp;



He said: “You even got President Trump to see that Bitcoin is the future. Yeah, you did that. You got him to see that decentralization and freedom are our future. You said, ‘Ross is one of us.’ You stayed united. You said, ‘We want Ross out here with us.’ You said, ‘Free Ross.’ You did this.”



But Bitcoin was simply paying it all back. Silk Road was arguably Bitcoin’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/silk-road-ross-ulbricht-history-bitcoin-crypto">first killer app</a>. It was Ross and Ross alone who showed the world the power of Bitcoin, both as magic internet money and a tool for freedom without compromise.



“[David Bailey] said, ‘Ross, you took Bitcoin from 0 to 1. And while you were in prison, we, the community — all of you — we took it from 1 to 10. But we still need to go from 10 to 100,’” he said.



There were three core principles of Bitcoin that Ross championed in his speech: freedom, decentralization and unity. Each one reinforces the other, making them critical to maintain as Bitcoin evolves through its next great epoch.



“We can argue all day, but please, never see each other as enemies. Those that oppose decentralization and freedom love it when we&#8217;re divided, I promise you. So stay united. So long as we can agree that we deserve freedom and that decentralization is how we secure it, and we can be united, we can have each other&#8217;s backs. Just like you had mine,” Ross said.



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Stay united: Ross Ulbricht’s heartfelt message for Bitcoin

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We’re so back when it comes to launchpads. 



Remember how many folks thought memecoins and things like pump.fun were on the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-memecoins-impact-crypto">downtrend</a> earlier this year?



How young and naive we all were. Or maybe it’s the opposite.&nbsp;



Anyway, my point is that launchpads are still having a moment, with the most obvious leader being pump.fun. In our previous conversations with Blockworks Research on the subject of memecoins, the team reiterated how bullish they are on the segment. 



In a <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/the-launchpad-wars_pump.fun's-dominance-under-siege">report</a> earlier this week, our Research team looked at pump.fun’s dominance in a growing pool. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeDdVlDBreh0oCVCvZWS-JxgVBsKraIEXDtTs93BtUqASQvRCNUrP6brS_UwHhTCW2oCaxfn3mJhTkfMOHKSTWYcQIEuSq7am_gM68Zsv4Io6d6aV8Gz40LQkWeu2q5S7iB-gtk?key=cS080LHB1w_pUxzNZg64uA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Look at those volumes go. </figcaption></figure>



So far, pump.fun’s managed to really corner its market. There have been competitors (remember Tron’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-developments-to-watch">attempt</a>, for example?), but none of them has really managed to stick. 



“The core problem was structural: without instantly recognizable standards and an engaged speculator base (and their capital), these clones offered little more than a lower-fidelity imitation of the original experience,” Research analyst Danny K. wrote.&nbsp;



But analysts say that it’s still early days for this market, which means we could see more serious competitors to pump.fun down the line. 



“The winners will be those who either defend the core memecoin market or successfully create and grow entirely new categories rather than offering ‘pump.fun but slightly different,’” the report said.  <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/raydium-launching-pumpfun-version">Raydium</a> is a clear competitor, but they also note that Meteora “has had quiet success” in some of the same pools, from getting big launch partners (Trump and Melania Trump) to also offering infrastructure. 



Between that and their relationship with Jupiter, Blockworks Research said that they “ultimately view them as another major contender in this battle.”



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Empire Newsletter

Who can compete against pump.fun?

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Business-to-business (B2B if you will) stablecoin transactions are gaining momentum, per a new report from Artemis, Dragonfly, and Castle Island Ventures.



The <a href="https://www.stablecoin.fyi/">report</a> found that such payments are annualizing $36 billion, which is a step above the person-to-person (P2P) rate of $18 billion.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdKhYZb6iw8_RoGbAs0S5b5mzJPuqcdbxnaJ6xFV9uhv3-Xbk5yNtryCNXmnzPJQENErKCfvBs7M3kg71kYk2OBVxro14yaCW9jIfwJYA5GgVLo4I5cTG5AU5roAzPrsYMwDfiIDg?key=cS080LHB1w_pUxzNZg64uA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Stablecoin Payments From the Ground Up</figcaption></figure>



As you can see in the chart above, the volumes have really picked up on the B2B side of things, showing that the adoption that we’ve been talking about is being heavily reflected in data. Love to see it.



The study noted that USDT wins the popularity contest in these payments, but USDC has roughly 30% of the monthly volume.&nbsp;



“I kind of expected…that Circle would have done a little better than it has,” Dragonfly’s Rob Hadick told me. “The reality is, today, it&#8217;s still…between 80% and 90% Tether. There&#8217;s some indication that maybe Circle is gaining on the B2B side, but we haven&#8217;t seen that one in the data yet.”



On the downside, though, it looks like P2P might be struggling a bit.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc19hc_-dxV7G9FW39GKdQGhIfJUnKa6AmNybBwQqX1MDktL3bXhFtOoQlT4oHmqaZSfvB-StQQ4t2cFeWZ7x5hHr3cSDWK7kzjOtBiVdXQ5ziKdKwgQtKSI73VT1TVvVbIG0gm?key=cS080LHB1w_pUxzNZg64uA" alt=""/></figure>



You can see that volumes seemed to peak earlier this year, but haven’t quite bounced back, despite what is arguably a very bullish environment for stablecoins specifically.&nbsp;



Hadick told me he was surprised to see the P2P market hit such a wall. He noted that WorldPay’s most recent <a href="https://www.worldpay.com/en/global-payments-report?utm_source=google&amp;utm_medium=paid_search&amp;utm_campaign=2025_ENT_PM_GPR-ENGLISH_29508&amp;utm_content=en-us_gpr_google&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=22443344533&amp;gbraid=0AAAAAqItqDOMZCYb15mlFdFpDoK5Vo2JV&amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwruXBBhArEiwACBRtHY2j_TWl6vAVBBeU3oTbzUB0jUZKe2ZxDFXMuWjqRdegFfdVOnbPfhoC870QAvD_BwE">report</a> showed that account-to-account payments are trending higher and becoming the fastest-growing segment of payments worldwide.



So his read was that P2P stablecoin volumes could get a boost from that, but clearly — as the data shows above — that’s not the case. On the other hand, he was thrilled to see that B2B payments are quickly growing.



What stood out to me is that the smaller segment of business-to-consumer payments is also stagnating.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbwCjng5T6sANcD8NPBWT6fe4b8dtzU77v8V5rngH0TePt9lW8lCDAbavS5UYGzOm7r3TZYHGOErtut67L9PtxO6CbtppP1AAWUqEDYBBFyyyuOMnW2yoa7QTofjV9GoVUguV6?key=cS080LHB1w_pUxzNZg64uA" alt=""/></figure>



As you can see above, it looks like B2C volume hit a high roughly around the same time as P2P before dropping.&nbsp;



That’s not to discount the rise this year in volumes, which is focused on Binance Pay and Orbital.&nbsp;



“Volume has increased substantially, rising from approximately $50 million per month at the start of 2023 to surpassing $300 million by early 2025. This growth highlights the expanding role of stablecoins in everyday digital commerce and service platforms,” the study said.&nbsp;



Empire co-host Santiago Santos, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FzTibc5jAc">in this week’s Round Up</a>, noted that B2B versus B2C caught his eye.



“ I think the first time, like B2B stablecoin transfers are now at or above B2C, which is institutions are using stablecoins,” he said. “ Now the volume of, or the share that institutions are using stablecoins, is now greater than [retail].”



Even with some of the more surprising datasets, Hadick told me that it’s still very early on for stablecoin use cases.



“The book is just starting to be written,” Hadick said. He still firmly believes that more companies will enter the space, and that’ll help boost massive winners.&nbsp;



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Dragonfly Capital

The stablecoin ‘book is just starting to be written,’ Dragonfly’s Hadick says

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
&#8220;A chain is no stronger than its weakest link, and life is after all a chain.”



— William James
</blockquote>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-deconstructing-strategy-mstr-premium-leverage-and-capital-structure/?utm_source=veg-m&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=US-Digital-Assets-2025-05-23&amp;cid=24469807/A46B358&amp;mkt_tok=NDEwLVhPUi02NzMAAAGanDVa73q2T8yThoPQBzlGGzfgKo1b1BH9KMN26h48DSGWs8ZtAO5DwtE99Pxg8j69Zy1AfXLK0KBU4r3iNl_3pxKdY3dcO7ZIqtGkX7DKH1bTAQTl#strategy">VanEck explains Strategy</a></h2>



The investment case for bitcoin treasury companies can be confusing, so VanEck has done us a service by writing the definitive explainer on the various ways to invest in Strategy (MSTR, STRF, converts).



The main vehicle, MSTR, is generally viewed as a leveraged bet on bitcoin, but VanEck details why that’s not exactly correct.



Instead, MSTR is a “convexity” bet on the price of bitcoin — because investors are not just exposed to BTC, but to an “increasing BTC position as the price of BTC increases.”



I wonder how many MSTR holders realize that&#8217;s the bet they&#8217;re making.



VanEck is unusually brave about putting price targets on crypto assets, but it declined to do so here and it’s easy to see why: MSTR’s value is driven by the “circular relationship between Strategy’s Premium and its ability to finance more BTC purchases.”



Circular logic doesn’t work well in valuation models, so that should be a red flag to anyone who thinks valuation matters.



MSTR’s raison d&#8217;être is to increase its “bitcoin per share” and the primary way it does that is to sell shares above NAV.



So MSTR’s value is ultimately a function of the valuation that investors assign it.



The result is that MSTR investors are “buying an option on the continued existence of The Premium.”



VanEck’s capitalization of “The Premium” seems to reflect how central it is to the Strategy investment case, which Michael Saylor acknowledges.



But Saylor believes The Premium can persist — Strategy, he says, is a “crypto reactor that can run for a long, long period of time.”



But you can’t model a crypto reactor in a spreadsheet, so how long it might run is anyone’s guess.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trumps-media-company-to-raise-2-5-billion-to-buy-bitcoin-75420822">Trump Media &amp; Technology Group to buy bitcoin</a></h2>



President Trump’s exchange-listed media group announced plans this week to raise $2.5 billion from investors to buy bitcoin.



This prompted the Wall Street Journal to warn that “Trump’s policies toward bitcoin…could potentially affect the value of Trump Media’s bitcoin stash.”



But I’d like to add that Trump’s policies toward the dollar could potentially affect the value of his bitcoin stash.



After the capital raise, I’m guessing the president will end up with roughly a 25% stake in Trump Media’s $2.5 billion worth of bitcoin.



This creates a bizarre situation in which the president would personally profit by debauching the currency that his government issues.&nbsp;



I’m not cynical enough to think he’d deliberately do that — but could it make him a little less concerned about running giant deficits?



Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWecczwSG04">The MicroStrategy of Solana</a></h2>



When Jack Kubinec asked DeFi Development Corp’s Dan Kang what problem his Solana treasury company is solving, Kang said it’s that investors “can’t accumulate SOL fast enough.”



I’m not convinced how pressing a problem that really is, but like Strategy, DeFi Development Corp offers to solve it for you by selling you stock above NAV and investing the proceeds into SOL on your behalf.



The higher you pay above NAV, the faster they will be able to accumulate SOL.



Depending on how willing subsequent investors are to pay above NAV, this might work out as a faster way to get exposure to SOL.&nbsp;



But either way, the investing logic illustrates the circular conundrum of crypto treasury companies.



As with any asset, you don’t want to pay too high of a valuation multiple for treasury companies — surely 100x NAV, for example, would be too much.



But unlike any other asset, you don’t want to pay too low of one, either.



A Treasury company trading at or below 1x NAV won’t be able to grow its crypto holdings on a per share basis at all.



So, for the investment case to make sense, you have to believe there&#8217;s some Goldilocks multiple of NAV — not too hot and not too cold, but just right.



Sounds like a fairy tale to me.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.the-independent.com/tech/bitcoin-mining-pakistan-crypto-energy-b2758316.html">Pakistan to mine bitcoin with surplus energy</a></h2>



Pakistan announced this week that it plans to mine as many as 17,000 bitcoin per year using surplus energy from underused coal-powered plants.



I imagine many in Pakistan would be surprised to hear that there’s all this extra energy going unused because the country’s electrical grid is notoriously unreliable.&nbsp;



But I guess it’s possible because the thing about electricity is that it’s not generated on demand.



When you flick a light switch on at home, the reason the room is immediately filled with light is that the electricity had already been generated and was in the grid waiting for you (metaphorically speaking).



Utilities are always guessing how much power they need to generate, so it’s helpful for them to deliver some of it to bitcoin miners that can be turned off when they’ve generated too little.



This is the core argument for why bitcoin mining isn’t as environmentally damaging as it seems.



But that’s probably not what’s happening here — the reference to “underused” power plants suggests that Pakistan will be burning more coal than it otherwise would have.



This makes the term “surplus” a bit misleading; it’s probably not surplus energy that’s being used to mine bitcoin, but surplus capacity to generate energy.



Either way, Pakistan says the bitcoin will be kept in a strategic reserve, which is also kind of weird because the Pakistani government runs persistent budget deficits.



So, the country will effectively be borrowing money to buy the coal required to use its spare power plant capacity to mine bitcoin, which it will HODL.



Just like Strategy!



I imagine Michael Saylor would advise Pakistan that the real play here is to rebrand its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as a bitcoin Treasury company and list it on the stock exchange where its bitcoin will magically be worth twice as much.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trumps-hyped-meme-coin-dinner-might-have-been-a-bust.html">New York Magazine on the Trump dinner</a></h2>



Matt Steib reported that last weekend’s “‘Dinner With President Trump’ didn’t even include a dinner with President Trump.”



Instead, the famously loquacious president reportedly spoke for an uncharacteristically efficient 15 to 20 minutes before departing.



“As diners tucked into their meals,” Steib wrote, “they heard the helicopter taking off back to the White House.”



I doubt anyone was too disappointed, as a 220-person dinner hardly promises to be an intimate affair.



Also, it was pretty cheap.



One attendee told Steib that the cost to attend was only about $1,200 — the fees they paid to buy TRUMP tokens in a digital wallet and short a matching number of tokens on an exchange.&nbsp;



“Most people I spoke to had hedge positions,” the attendee added.



No wonder the president didn’t hang around to chat.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://time.com/7288387/sam-altman-orb-tools-for-humanity/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=editorial&amp;utm_term=_&amp;linkId=825316705">Time magazine on OpenAI and the Orb</a></h2>



Sam Altman’s blockchain-based project to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/worldcoin-biometric-identity-vision">save the internet from AI bots</a> (a problem largely of his own making) is even more ambitious than I thought.



Altman is the chair of Tools for Humanity, which is developing the World project, which aims to “verify” the humanity of every person on Earth.



For Time, Billy Perrigo reported that Tools for Humanity also hopes World will become “the world’s largest financial network, through which it believes ‘double-digit percentages of the global economy’ will eventually flow.”



“If this really works,” Altman said, “it’s like a fundamental piece of infrastructure for the world.”



I’m sold on the need for such infrastructure: “In a best-case scenario,” Perrigo writes, “World ID could be a privacy-preserving way to fortify the internet against an AI-driven deluge of fake or deceptive content.”



Perrigo explains how in helpfully accessible terms: “If I were to use my World ID to access a website, that site would learn nothing about me except that I’m human.”



The way to prove you’re human is to prove you have eyeballs, as an Orb attendant explains: “We need a way to verify that we’re human and not AI. So how do we do that? Well, humans have irises, but AI doesn’t.”



(Irises are not the only thing that separates us from AIs, but they’re the only thing that’s provably unique.)



World has signed up about 12 million users so far, which is probably not fast enough.



“The internet will change very drastically sometime in the next 12 to 24 months,” Tools for Humanity CEO Alex Blania told Time. “So we have to succeed, or I’m not sure what else would happen.”



What would probably happen first is that the internet will be overrun by AIs.



But Altman now says that’s not his focus: “It’s not like, ‘Oh, we’ve got to avoid the bot overrun’ or whatever. It’s just that we can do a lot of special things for humans.”



Perrigo suspects that Altman is changing the narrative on World to better fit the narrative on OpenAI: “Tools for Humanity’s mission may be shifting beyond simply proving humanity, and toward becoming the infrastructure that enables AI agents to proliferate with human authorization.”



Lots of those AI agents will be created by Sam Altman’s OpenAI.



I find that a little disappointing because it muddies the narrative, but World still seems like a worthy cause to me, because what’s the alternative?



One way to contribute to the cause is to buy the World token, which has to have value so that Tools for Humanity can incentivize sign-ups, attract investors and motivate employees.



Time quotes Tools for Humanity CEO Blania as saying that he’s “really excited to make a lot of money.”



That strikes a discordant note for an ostensibly mission-driven company, but if World works, he’ll have earned it.



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Thursday links: Treasury companies and dinner without Trump

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Kraken announced last week that it would soon list Solana-based tokenized equities, in what looks partly like the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/4-big-questions-following-the-solana-accelerate-conference">exchange’s latest step</a> to lure Solana investors.&nbsp;



This forthcoming xStocks product was developed in tandem with a startup named Backed, and Backed’s ambitions don’t end with Kraken users or the Solana ecosystem.



“The vision is that you can buy an xStock on Kraken, you can withdraw it, and then you can deposit on Coinbase or you can deposit on Orca, you can leverage it on Kamino,” co-founder Adam Levi told me in an interview. Levi said separately that xStocks would be launching on other centralized exchanges, and the product would be available on other blockchains “at some point.”



Levi said Backed originated when he and his co-founder examined crypto’s product-market fit surrounding stablecoins — which are currently basically tokenized US Treasurys — and wondered what asset class could be tokenized next. Four years ago, Levi says, they concluded the answer would be public equities.



Granted, others are asking this same question, and not all are reaching the same conclusion. The buzzy tokenization firm Securitize, for example, has set about tokenizing a private credit fund — essentially offering exposure to elevated yields created by riskier private loans — offered by Apollo Global. The product will be onboarded to Kamino, it was <a href="https://x.com/KaminoFinance/status/1924902594968699179">announced</a> last week.



Still, Levi told me he thinks the upside for tokenized public equity is significant.



“I think it’s going to be bigger than stablecoins, and volumes are almost in a way going to compete with TradFi,” Levi said of the sector. He said demand could primarily come from non-US residents who want easier access to American securities and young people for whom trading tokens may feel more intuitive than opening a brokerage account.



Throughout our interview, Levi cast Backed as being having a similar business model to a stablecoin issuer insofar as it creates and ostensibly collects revenue on a tokenized product that is then exchanged on other venues.&nbsp;



Kraken, which has a large base of crypto users Backed could not easily acquire on its own, becomes the first such venue. Think USDC-Coinbase but for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kraken-tokenized-stocks-tradfi-crypto">tokenized stocks</a>. This also fits into a broader narrative that growth-minded crypto exchanges may begin to offer more traditional bank-like features over time, especially given the friendlier <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-crypto-round-table-execs">regulatory environment</a>.



As for the Solana of it all, Levi told me: “Tokenized equities is a very kind of retail game, and I think Solana is a very retail chain.” He added that the Solana Foundation — which has gone all in on “Internet Capital Markets” branding recently, was very supportive.&nbsp;



“They really want this to succeed,” Levi said.



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kraken

Tokenized equities will be ‘bigger than stablecoins’: Backed CEO

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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In a major blow to the Trump administration’s pursuit of global sweeping tariffs, the US Court of International Trade ruled that tariffs implemented via IEEPA were unlawful. This includes reciprocal tariffs and Fentanyl-related levies placed on certain countries.&nbsp;



The breakdown of what’s been impacted can be seen below: 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="847" height="593" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-103194" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=847 847w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=367 367w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=373 373w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=313 313w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart1.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px" /></figure>



On net, this move takes the effective tariff rate from 10.4% to approximately 3.4%, as calculated by Bloomberg Economics.



The Trump administration was quick to appeal the decision. The matter now moves to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. The government also said it will seek “emergency relief” from the Supreme Court to pause yesterday’s ruling should the appellate court not do so.&nbsp;



Peter Harrell, attorney at Carnegie Endowment, broke down some of the nuances around the ruling in a post on X:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Analysis of yesterday&#39;s Court of International Trade (CIT) decision enjoining Trump&#39;s IEEPA tariffs, and thoughts about what might come next: 1. The CIT found that all of Trump&#39;s IEEPA tariffs&#8211;the Canada, Mexico, and China tariffs, and the &quot;Liberation Day&quot; tariffs&#8211;are…&mdash; Peter Harrell (@petereharrell) <a href="https://twitter.com/petereharrell/status/1928087025665855754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“The Government,&#8221; said Harrell, &#8220;has 10 days to comply with the ruling, and has already appealed to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. The Appeals Court may stay the CIT decision pending an appeal, but I expect an appeal to move quickly — weeks, not months. 



&#8220;If the decision is upheld, importers should eventually be able to get a refund of tariffs paid to date. But the government will probably seek to avoid paying refunds until appeals are exhausted. 



&#8220;The CIT&#8217;s opinion was elegantly reasoned and complex. It held that the &#8216;Liberation Day&#8217; tariffs are unlawful because if Trump wants to use tariffs to address the trade deficit — the stated basis for the Liberation Day tariffs — he has to use other provisions of law, including Section 122, which authorizes tariffs to deal with balance of payments issues, but which limits tariffs to 15% and 150 days. IEEPA may allow tariffs, but not tariffs to address the trade deficit.”



That point about there being other routes for the Trump administration to pursue to implement tariffs is crucial, as that is likely where the administration’s next vector of attack will come.



In the table below, we can see there are plenty of esoteric avenues that can be pursued for implementing tariffs if the Trump administration is truly committed to doing so: 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="832" height="697" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-103195" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=832 832w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=307 307w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=312 312w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=261 261w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/chart2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 832px) 100vw, 832px" /></figure>



Overall, this judicial ruling marks the next leg of trade uncertainty, as opposed to a resolution of it. Markets will now need to digest the following: a tariff implementation fight likely heading to the Supreme Courts, more esoteric legal routes to pursue more tariffs and a potential surge in imports hitting US shores as companies try to get in as many goods as they can while tariffs sit at a (likely) temporary floor of 3.4%.&nbsp;



Where do we go from here? Your guess is as good as mine. Stay nimble.



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Donald Trump

Court of International Trade halts the Tariff bonanza

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Real estate has long been suggested by crypto fans as an area that could benefit from onchain records, whether it’s a blockchain-based deed or other data.&nbsp;



Real estate startup Mogul is using blockchain tech to bring fractionalized investment to the sector. It recently launched Mogul Clubs, which are user-created real estate investment groups using the Avalanche C-chain.&nbsp;



Now, Clubs are officially out of beta.



Avalanche developer Ava Labs has launched its own Mogul Club and is using the blockchain to power stablecoin-based real estate investments.



The goal of Mogul Clubs is “to give investors seamless access to high-yield, high-return single-family rentals across the US sunbelt—without the typical capital barriers or landlord headaches,” according to a release.



Mogul first launched back in 2023. It currently has over $22 million in assets on its platform. CEO Alex Blackwood told me they’ve already been able to give investors 10-12% cash-on-cash returns so far with an average internal rate of return (IRR) of 18.8%.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">💎 Introducing The Celeste, our newest Houston property following the sellout of our previous five. Featuring a pre-growth yield of 8.2% and a levered IRR of 15.1%, The Celeste has seen over $82,000 in investment since its launch today. Invest here: <a href="https://t.co/gw57MtO0YH">https://t.co/gw57MtO0YH</a> <a href="https://t.co/cc4drEdy88">pic.twitter.com/cc4drEdy88</a>&mdash; mogul Club (@mogul__club) <a href="https://twitter.com/mogul__club/status/1903161020278850019?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Fractionalized assets can sound complicated. But here’s how this works: When an investor funds a deal using USDT or a wire transfer, Mogul creates “a proprietary on-chain property NFT that represents their fractional membership interest in the LLC that owns the real estate,” according to Blackwood.



“Those tokens are not AVAX itself but custom ERC-1155 compatible contracts mogul wrote specifically for our platform, so all ownership records, distribution rights, and governance votes are immutably recorded on the chain,” Blackwood added.



Retail investors can join more than 30 different clubs. The startup says it vets every investable property on its platform, with the goal of giving investors the highest ROI possible.



“Mogul has a vetting process even stricter than Harvard’s, with less than one percent of properties we come across ultimately making it to the platform,” Blackwood told me.



Investors who join these real estate clubs can decide whether they want to buy in by themselves or alongside others — and need a minimum of $250 to get started. That price point makes it accessible, so investors can be just about anyone, no license required.



Mogul was founded by two former Goldman Sachs real estate investment group employees. Their site also offers a free rental property calculator, an Airbnb income calculator, a real estate calculator, and an investment property calculator to assess whether a property is worth a second look.



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real estate

Mogul puts real estate investments on Avalanche

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto MMORPG MapleStory N said it’s banned thousands of accounts and is monitoring the game’s players for suspicious activity such as bot accounts or cheaters.



“With ongoing updates to the automated system, more than 200 detections and corresponding restrictive measures are now being processed every hour,” the game’s team said in a developer’s <a href="https://docs.maplestoryn.io/announcement/updates/developer-notes/ongoing-measures-against-hacks-and-macros">note</a>.&nbsp;



The note, the text of which can also be read on a mirror <a href="https://msu.io/maplestoryn/news/update/2911197">post</a> published last week, continued: “Our team continues to conduct thorough manual reviews based on user reports and submitted evidence. As a result of these combined efforts, a total of 6,503 sanctions were issued over the past 24 hours.”



The MapleStory N team said they’re using security tools to detect cheat programs and those who might try to use multiple devices at the same time via automation tools. They’re also on the lookout for “mass logins, rapid character creation, [and] unusual trading and leveling activity.”



MapleStory N <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/maplestory-n-launch-usa-countries">launched</a> just two weeks ago, and uses its own dedicated Avalanche L1 (also known as a subnet) for its crypto elements.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Dear Maplers🍄, We know how important a fair game environment is to you, and to us. Our team is actively working to address hacks and macros, and we’ve shared an update on our ongoing efforts here: <a href="https://t.co/VECzNOWGTQ">https://t.co/VECzNOWGTQ</a> Thank you for your continued support and patience as we…&mdash; MapleStory Universe (@MaplestoryU) <a href="https://twitter.com/MaplestoryU/status/1926147522549944680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 24, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Because crypto games involve financial rewards, some are incentivized to “bot” a game, or automate activity across numerous accounts, to farm rewards in the form of tokens or NFTs that can then be cashed out.



Botting, or other types of cheating, can be present across all types of video games more broadly.&nbsp;



In crypto gaming, though, botters present an issue to game developers because such actors are only playing the game to extract funds — not purchase items for cosmetic purposes or otherwise spend more than is absolutely necessary in a game. This can mean less revenue for the game’s studio, and real players lose out on rewards as a result.



Pixels, a pixelated MMORPG that uses Ronin, has been battling bots in its crypto game for years. For Pixels, ignoring bots would negatively impact their revenue, and may frustrate or even alienate genuine players if botters are the ones reaping most of the game’s rewards.&nbsp;



Pixels’ founder recently <a href="https://x.com/whatslukedoing/status/1925300844758442340">noted</a> that they’ve been able to finally get more deposits of funds into the game than withdrawals for the first time this month, creating a long-term healthier financial picture for the game. That’s come in part as a result of their extensive anti-bot efforts and plans to prioritize genuine players.



Going forward, MapleStory N says it’s looking at reducing the amount of false positives — where genuine players were labeled as bots or cheaters — and will adjust its approach accordingly.



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Gaming

MapleStory N bans 6,000+ accounts for botting, cheating

Roughly a third of all bitcoin could one day be owned by corporations, Swan Bitcoin Chief Investment Officer Ben Werkman projects.



President Donald Trump’s strategic bitcoin reserve <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/">order</a> helped clear the path for companies, meaning <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/matt-hougan-crypto-reputational-risk">the risk-reward for adopting bitcoin</a> “has never been better,” he said.&nbsp;



“I won’t be surprised to see 25-35% of bitcoin held by corporations, but keep in mind it seems we’re also going to have some involvement from sovereign wealth funds and central banks,” Werkman told Blockworks in an interview. “I think the pockets of demand are going to get really wide.”



Werkman is a board member of Strive Asset Management, an investment firm that <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/strive-asset-management-to-combine-with-asset-entities-nasdaq-asst-to-form-first-publicly-traded-asset-management-bitcoin-treasury-company-302448623.html">announced</a> earlier this month that it plans to combine with Asset Entities and form a NASDAQ-listed bitcoin treasury company.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, Strive signed a $750 million private investment in public equity with Asset Entities on Tuesday — the proceeds of which would “support the company&#8217;s first wave of Bitcoin acquisitions.” The companies also seek to acquire public companies trading below net cash to then buy bitcoin at a discount.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/corporate-bitcoin-adoption-boom-inevitable-kraken">Why execs say a corporate bitcoin adoption boom is inevitable</a>



Not all companies will become what Werkman called “leveraged bitcoin equities” — the ones that utilize the capital markets to actively accumulate it (like Michael Saylor’s Strategy).&nbsp;



Some could simply choose to make a policy change to allow what they’re holding in US dollars — perhaps 3-5% of corporate reserves — to go toward bitcoin instead, he explained.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



A former equity analyst for firms like Strategy, Metaplanet and Semler Scientific, Werkman has also done consulting for public and private companies exploring how to structure BTC treasury strategies.&nbsp;



“I’ve not yet seen a company that’s been evaluating this where they haven’t been open to starting to have these conversations,” he said. “That tells me they’re realizing they’ve got a problem, and all the uncertainty that’s happened over the last six months has really amplified that for them.”



Keep reading for more excerpts from Blockworks’ interview with Werkman.



Blockworks: What were the main contributors to bitcoin hitting a new all-time high last week?



Werkman: Obviously, on the corporate adoption side, you’re seeing a huge amount of capital start to enter the space. The type of foundational buying pressure from long-only participants — people that aren’t sellers — is really growing, so that’s building a foundational bid underneath bitcoin.&nbsp;&nbsp;



But broader than that, I think you’re seeing a lot of weakness in some of the macro markets. Particularly in Japan, you’re seeing the issues currently rising with the rates over there, and people are starting to get a little scared by that. What we saw when the tariff scare happened was bitcoin essentially made its pivot from a risk-on asset to a risk-off asset. There was tremendous strength that showed up that I don’t think anybody was anticipating.&nbsp;



And people are looking at what’s going to have to come in the US for them to stabilize around rates and the currency, and I think they’re starting to see the path to easing opening back up again.&nbsp;



Blockworks: Kraken CFO Stephanie Lemmerman <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/corporate-bitcoin-adoption-boom-inevitable-kraken">said</a> last month she expects 20% of the roughly 55,000 public companies to hold BTC a couple of years from now. Do you agree? Werkman: I think you’re definitely going to see thousands. Bitcoin got significantly derisked as an asset class when the United States announced a strategic reserve.&nbsp;



When you think about the time and energy you’re putting into building savings in US dollars, only to know that it’s devaluing every year on you, you need to look for an alternative…that has a completely inelastic supply to the demand for it.



It’s maintaining your purchasing power for your corporation and you’ve got a duty to your shareholders to make sure you’re evaluating all the options.&nbsp;



What gets us to the 20% is, you’re going to have a much smaller cohort of these leveraged bitcoin equities, but you’re going to have a broad cohort that just hold bitcoin the asset in corporate reserves to protect themselves.



Blockworks: How do you expect corporate bitcoin adoption to evolve? Werkman: We used to all think it would accelerate over the next three to five years and now we’re seeing it accelerate today. It seems like every week there’s an announcement about a new company doing this.



But you’re going to see a lot of differentiation that starts to happen in the market. When you start getting too many companies that are running the same playbook with the same setup…you’re going to start to see some consolidation in the types of investments. Some will be more successful than others. You can really think about it the way that traditional equities are already structured, where you have value companies, growth companies, and hyper-growth companies. You’re going to see segmentation in this market as well.&nbsp;



Strategy is going to be that value company out there; they’ve achieved scale, they’re safe for institutions to invest in and trade in their products. So they’ve achieved escape velocity on that side, and you’re going to see other bitcoin treasuries grow rather rapidly.



Then there’re going to be new strategies being deployed where they’re going to focus on how fast they’re incrementing that bitcoin per share.&nbsp;



Blockworks: Strategy currently owns 580,250 BTC. How much more do you expect them to accumulate, and can anyone catch up? Werkman: Strategy really defined the initial playbook that a lot of these companies can follow. That was a really important role for them to fill, because the one thing that really needed to happen was the markets needed to be proved out for each of these different types of offerings, and you needed to really get a sense of who your buyer was on the other side of these transactions.



It’s going to start getting a lot harder to put up the same [acquisition] numbers, because now you’re starting to see the demand’s coming and the part that gives is the price. So you’re going to have to keep buying it at a higher price, which means you’re going to be getting less bitcoin.&nbsp;



So achieving a reserve stack like Strategy has is going to be very difficult for any other company; they’ve got a significant moat because if a buyer came in and started to try to buy [580,000] bitcoins right now, that market’s going to move.



I think [Strategy] is probably targeting a million BTC, but it’s going to become a lot harder to get there because there are so many people who are buying and not selling.&nbsp;



Blockworks: Have you seen situations where it might not make sense for a company to deploy a bitcoin treasury strategy? Werkman: To deploy the active strategy, yes. But most companies always have an ability or a business case for creating a bitcoin treasury strategy. It could be something as small as creating an insurance policy for yourself. You don’t want to be the last person that decides to make the change; that’s not a good look for your company.



This interview was edited for clarity and brevity.



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Bitcoin

Corporations could one day own a third of all BTC: Swan Bitcoin CIO

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">subscribe</a>.



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World is the one crypto project that you either love or hate.



Since launch, the Sam Altman-backed World (previously Worldcoin) has been roundly <a href="https://x.com/DefiSquared/status/1790075349373694174">criticized</a> for its “low float” tokenomics and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-worldcoin-reputation-problem">faced scrutiny</a> from regulators stemming from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/world-coin-temporarily-blocked-spain">data privacy concerns</a>.



Yet, World continues to stand out in the industry for trying to do something uniquely innovative.



Despite the WLD token’s 88% slump from its 2024 highs, the team announced last week an undiscounted <a href="https://x.com/worldcoin/status/1925253926929997841">sale</a> of $135 million in WLD to Andreessen Horowitz and Bain Capital Crypto. Mirana Ventures and Selini Capital also participated in the sale, the latter of which <a href="https://x.com/SeliniCapital/status/1925560024614805974">claimed</a> that it “wrote its (by far) largest-ever check.”



Which made me question: What do some of the world’s top institutional investors see in a project almost universally vilified by Crypto Twitter?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">World ID</h2>



At the heart of World’s business model is the distribution involved with World ID, the team’s open-source digital identity product.



Why sign up? In exchange for registering their biometric data at an Orb (World’s signature <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sam-altman-worldcoin-orb-mini-eye-scan">iris-scanning device</a>), users are offered WLD token incentives.



It’s (almost) as simple as that.



To date, <a href="https://world.org/">12.6 million</a> unique humans have Orbed. To put World’s distribution into rough perspective, Coinbase has something like <a href="https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/public-companies/coinbase-monthly-transacting-users">10 million</a> monthly active users, while Telegram has a billion (note these aren’t quite apple-to-apple comparisons).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">World App and World Chain</h2>



World’s distributional funnel has helped fuel about 27 million users to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sam-altman-worldcoin-orb-mini-eye-scan">onboard its World App</a>, an ecosystem hub of hundreds of “<a href="https://www.miniapps.world/">miniapps</a>” ranging from DeFi (Morpho), lottery games (PoolTogether), messaging, minigames like Wordle, payments, etc.



Miniapps are deployed on World Chain, the team’s Ethereum L2 built on the Optimism stack. The chain has seen some <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/markets-defy-logic">growth lately</a>.



What makes World Chain different is how the chain’s execution layer ties in with World ID.



For instance, users with a verified World ID can receive priority transaction inclusion over arbitrage bots on World Chain, or what the team calls “<a href="https://world.org/blog/engineering/introducing-pbh-priority-blockspace-for-humans">Priority Blockspace for Humans</a>.” The team also codifies rules that redirect transaction fees from bots to <a href="https://docs.world.org/world-chain">subsidize</a> gas costs of World ID users onchain.&nbsp;



World Chain isn’t all that interested in competing with dominant chains though, as Liam Horne, Optimism co-founder and advisor to World, told me.



What World wants to do is “to own the end-to-end user experience and ultimately the distribution of millions of people with World ID and World App,” Horne said.



“Our framing is not &#8216;Check out this app built on World Chain.’ Instead, it is &#8216;Tap into the millions of World ID users that want to use digital assets for their day-to-day financial and consumer needs.'&#8221;



It all hinges on World ID adoption. The north star is to build a “human hub,” and World is leveraging the tool of token incentives to do so.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">World’s business model</h2>



World ID is freely available for other teams to leverage today, though monetization will kick in later.



Today, World ID is integrated on World Chain, Ethereum, Optimism and even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-worldcoin-id-solana">Solana</a> (via Wormhole).



<a href="https://www.globalgovernmentfintech.com/malaysia-mimos-worldcoin/">Governments</a>, Web3 companies (<a href="https://world.org/ecosystem/app_74ee4e7a7d9f20328aba68a5ec72996a">DSCVR</a>, <a href="https://world.org/ecosystem/app_8b24dbefe1f3e6c41350f5e9b61f41d6">Galxe</a>) and traditional companies like Razer, Match Group and Shopify have also integrated World ID to better their services.



These companies have business models that are negatively impacted by bots. World ID represents the solution for them to curb this value leakage.



Match Group for instance, will probably give World ID-verified Tinder users some kind of checkmark or user privilege, which in turn improves the overall user experience (and spurs more users to seek out an Orb).



Or to use a more crypto-native example, dapps can better tune their growth campaigns to target real users with points/airdrop rewards. An uncollateralized lending product, for instance, could more efficiently reward real human users, making the multi-wallet practice of airdrop farming obsolete.



World eventually <a href="https://world.org/blog/announcements/introducing-world-id-fees">plans</a> to charge fees to apps for using World ID (full details out by Q3 2025).



That’s where the consistent demand sink for WLD token comes in — institutions paying to use World ID, instead of speculative interest from retail.



But can demand for WLD outpace the rapid unlocking of its token supply?



WLD has had rather hefty inflation — 600% in just the last 12 months, according to Delphi Digital’s <a href="https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/world-a-trillion-dollar-opportunity-or-just-another-low-float-high-fdv#tokenomics-4f4f">estimates</a>. For context, in the early days of WLD’s token, WLD had an enormously low float of merely <a href="https://x.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1683513205224534016">1%</a>, though that has increased to about 15% today.&nbsp;



In an age of infinitely AI-generated content, the need for humanness is growing. World is primed to tackle this head on.



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World’s biometric identity ambitions draw $135M in fresh funding

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">subscribe</a>. 



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Until now, no Bitcoiners have stepped foot on the actual moon, considering Satoshi wouldn’t write the white paper for another 36 years after the last astronaut returned home.



Maybe 50 people, tops, have been shot into space since the white paper came out, including on suborbital flights like the Blue Origin trips, which probably don’t count. Perhaps there were Bitcoiners among them.



We do know this for sure: Chun Wang is the first Bitcoin billionaire to ever enter Earth’s orbit.&nbsp;



The F2Pool co-founder spent three and a half days in space last month, only to land on stage with Rizzo, the Bitcoin Historian, at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas this week.



“Space was great. I already read a lot about space all my life, and I just went there for verification. So, don’t trust, verify. I verified space,” Wang told Rizzo.&nbsp;



He’d privately funded the expedition for an undisclosed sum after pitching SpaceX on the idea of operating humanity’s first ever space flight over Earth’s poles. Wang commanded the mission, which SpaceX operated with a Crew Dragon spacecraft, which are partially reusable.



Wang spent three months over a 14-month period training exactly as an astronaut would.&nbsp;



“The only difference…we pay ourselves, and professional astronauts, their respective countries pay for that… ours is kind of a newer private commercial space flight, that’s a difference, but we go through the same training process.”



Wang initially got into Bitcoin after coming across a Slashdot feature in 2011. Bitcoin’s most famous Slashdotting was its February <a href="https://news.slashdot.org/story/11/02/10/189246/online-only-currency-bitcoin-reaches-dollar-parity">post</a>: “Online-Only Currency BitCoin Reaches Dollar Parity.”&nbsp;



Luckily, he started mining soon after, and actually sold some of his bitcoin to fund the space adventure.



Rizzo asked: “There’s a lot of people here who don’t want to spend bitcoin, and maybe they don’t want to spend bitcoin to go to space. You spent bitcoin to go to space. Can you talk about why you wanted to spend bitcoin to go to space?”



“I think, you know, you cannot just stack that for no reason. Bitcoin, it can help humanity. And I think space is one of the next big things,” Wang said.&nbsp;



“&#8230;It’s very well worth it. Because eventually humans have to be — like Elon said, humans have to be multiplanetary. We cannot be stuck here.”



As for whether Wang thought to make a Bitcoin transaction from space, not so much. “Nobody asked me. Because, you know, payment, you have to pay from one person to another. We only had four people up there, I didn&#8217;t have to pay my colleague.”



“But yeah, we did have internet. I think future flyers, future space travelers, once we have a sizable community up there, they’ll have a reason to make a payment — they’ll make a payment.” Catch the rest of the interview <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/3e3KE40r_WM?feature=shared&amp;t=11388">from Bitcoin 2025’s livestream video</a> (link is timestamped).



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