Qtum (pronounced Quantum) is a smart contract platform that uses a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism to validate transaction blocks and provide security assurances. It combines different aspects of the Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains. Qtum uses Bitcoin core as the base of its network for security and stability reasons and, therefore, operates via a UTXO model. The project also integrated Ethereum's virtual machine (the EVM) so the chain could run Turing complete code needed to support smart contracts, and thus decentralized applications (dApps). Qtum's stack features a middleware layer, dubbed the account abstraction layer (AAL), to ensure the UTXO set was compatible with the smart contract execution layer. Qtum's native token (QTUM) allows users to pay transaction fees, participate in network security, and vote on protocol upgrade proposals. 

Qtum

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“I believe that at the end of the century…one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.”



— Alan Turing, 1947
</blockquote>



Did the AI bubble just have its Burning Up moment? In March 2000, Barron’s published a cover story — <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB953335580704470544">Burning Up</a> — detailing how quickly internet stocks were going through cash, predicting that investors would be reluctant to give them more.



“When will the Internet Bubble burst?” the article began. “For scores of &#8216;Net upstarts, that unpleasant popping sound is likely to be heard before the end of this year.”



Incredibly, the article was published within 10 days of the Nasdaq’s peak after a five-year, 570% rally — and the start of a 78% crash.



In hindsight, the Barron’s story looks less like coincidence and more like a catalyst: By spotlighting the cash burn, it helped cut off the flow of investor money keeping the bubble inflated.



Now, investors are having similar doubts about keeping the AI bubble inflated after a <a href="https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf">report from MIT</a> concluded that “95% of organizations are getting zero return” on their generative AI spend.



Shares of Palantir fell as much as 20% this week in response, with Nvidia and AMD down 8% and 11%, respectively.&nbsp;



If that turns out to be the beginning of the end of investors’ love affair with those types of AI stocks, the MIT report will surely get the blame.



“These [AI] tools primarily enhance individual productivity, not P&amp;L performance,” the report found, casting doubt on why companies would continue to invest in them.&nbsp;



The problem could be structural, too. Unlike human intelligence, the report finds that “most GenAI systems do not retain feedback, adapt to context or improve over time.”&nbsp;



If that makes companies decide to stop buying AI services from software providers, software providers will stop buying cloud services from the hyperscalers, and the hyperscalers will stop buying GPUs from the chipmakers.



That would be traumatic for investors, of course — and for the whole of the US economy, which has arguably been kept afloat by the hyperscalers’ giant investments in data centers and energy.



But we should remember that this is an investment bubble and not necessarily a bubble in AI itself.



Consider that Alan Turing conceived of artificial intelligence in the 1930s, a decade before the first working computer even existed.



The current investment bubble, if that’s what it is, has dramatically accelerated the realization of Turing’s vision, but his vision is hardly dependent on it.



As the internet before it, AI might do even better after its investment bubble has popped.&nbsp;&nbsp;



If big corporations give up on AI, other more innovative companies will make the most of the infrastructure they leave behind.



When Procter &amp; Gamble <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/p-g-slashed-digital-ad-spending-by-another-100-million-1519915621">said</a> in 2018 it was cutting spending on Facebook ads because it wasn’t getting a return on them, many took it as an indictment of Facebook.



In truth, it was an indictment of Procter &amp; Gamble, whose failure to figure out how to use online ads made room for new competitors who did.



The MIT study that so worried investors this week may similarly have surveyed corporations that just don’t know what to do with a new technology.



But it’s not just corporations — the latest iteration of ChatGPT has widely been considered a <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/openai-gpt-5-backlash-sam-altman/">disappointment</a> because it’s not as much of a step-change improvement as previous versions were.



But the new version is also <a href="https://x.com/VraserX/status/1958211800547074548">creating</a> “original research-level mathematics” that human mathematicians could not come up with themselves.



And AI is also designing physics experiments that a human physicist never would: “The outputs that the thing was giving us were really not comprehensible by people,” one researcher told <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/ai-comes-up-with-bizarre-physics-experiments-but-they-work/">Wired</a>. “They were too complicated, and they looked like alien things or AI things. Just nothing that a human being would make.”



If physicists don’t quite know what to make of AI, it’s no wonder that corporations are struggling to.



Even Alan Turing did.



“Machines take me by surprise with great frequency,” Turing<a href="http://www.loebner.net/Prizef/TuringArticle.html"> wrote in 1950</a>, in response to skeptics who said machines will only ever do what we tell them to.&nbsp;



The surprise may not be that the bubble bursts — it presumably will, eventually — but that AI, like the internet, will just be getting started when it does.



Let’s check the charts.



Palantir v. Cisco:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfpdC8lZDBfYU2JmKbwdUzXremQB1Bog9t5sZEQHHV-iQhzCuCGe8nL6HbTKPXnSMCYakxzr0WPT11Bztu1Sbxr8h7_vyerIywXO7Q3AQoOy8wcmVlHePj3l8mXdCkFnAIq7F21YA?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



John Authers notes that the run-up in Palantir dwarfs even the historic Cisco move in 1999. Appropriately, Cisco is finally approaching its all-time highs from 2000, thanks to a <a href="https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1958665424926908793">booming AI business</a>.&nbsp;



The data center boom:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfM0BP_nL2cgo7x14LBIvFFEeEMjQMk4hpvfWDrzb4pNNtBMrcT8rGccal7W-ezLj5xcWNTEkWXjnGX91_fWrXcr9M8v0mH_MarffmKCOlwag0Mp9npymuEbmabToc-5yjiKvKRmA?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



The US will soon be spending more on data centers than it does on office buildings.



Back to school:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXckLcJse5hiHG9h2SsdUvgSOKNCqRayUXKajDvakK3FtspTPS4exITjRwCcl2VqTrVqhifnRFuEA5Pu2C9Kzr2Z4tZqX3qxCQgb6Hps9Dfx2hJ6pd6y0GvSfbD06iCghoSwWKY4iw?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



<a href="https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/08/the-human-toll-of-artificial-intelligence/">Ben Carlson</a> notes that a steep drop in OpenAI usage coincided with the end of the school year. Investors will have to hope that AI finds a better use case than students outsourcing their homework.



The US is exporting government debt and AI investments:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc_B80UyE5BFWpNQG7B45L5JLvSbswLfAqpVXo572gtvKRrnq6VQGeYHBuH80ZswkzVWIVmHZEanxDpvTluEptIPyvWAZv8-ub5EqyufpPXWu_Ft1Q3uZFWnQtVfxckf6NkRIpxTA?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



Brad Setser <a href="https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1958665424926908793">explains</a> that the AI bubble is funding the US’s current account deficit. The blue area above is thought to be mostly investment flows into US equities. The green area is mostly government debt.



Generation degen:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfneb0L_4F-MCgmS-cuKvizPgcCbedzmRvgXCxzaq_WdVkVoNEM8kWD1MYOSN_zjTQZaOkpSjAl64dYoawASJMAd30JFouxHq6GjyT-NdxWOqFU7wItdxxcZD86nJM73-PR4EtO?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



This fun chart from BofA (via @MikeZaccardi) suggests millennials are driving the surge in trading volumes on US stock exchanges.



Someone is buying all the debt, too:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdQ167816WkD_62ZgKXjGPUXRSqJbDLOAEcvtVE_tZmec4idAgdpz4NIQSHWsD62DTwD1nOTz62q0XdqckGQk8r_tcQ0P1BITUNMjjm8kvJMqGTK-DYuEaqliSQ0RbI-nCFbb6IFw?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



Despite all the hand-wringing over unsustainable government deficits, investors are pouring more money into bond funds than ever before.



The market is ignoring the indicators:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdlSgvapTTOitDNOmnDu1QDPm_kyyXarTeSIA5MLm0jQk2qK0Xh7yCl_8Uuo9TpuyySd6yqwoNCxtw5IMGbR-CtZjMeYCQj6WFMAxB-KLrpjCm7K5y-yJT-IrfGaMhxowmHbg1yHw?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (in blue) has turned sharply lower. But stocks (in red) have continued to go higher.



The long view:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeh8Mhat59fzKS3leZkrnleRLsdozphl45yFfVIxj4oKkPDCi2Ux2mEHUWaRiLWVSyPzkROOfDwqu2Yozwz2EwEULO5AtcYeq8ypLOenwhyHz9CUxj-A9Pjxq2vhRcE6vPrizPo?key=Gs_roawT9tnrA5MJOblb4w" alt=""/></figure>



It’s always tempting to try to time the next investing bubble, but here’s a reminder of the opportunity cost: Adjusted for inflation, the S&amp;P 500 is up 5,462% over the past five decades.



Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, of course, and the AI investment bubble may well be due to pop. But Alan Turing might advise you to let yourself be surprised.



Have a great weekend, naturally intelligent readers.



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The Breakdown Newsletter

Friday charts: Bubbles then, and now

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



There will soon be a lot more avenues to get crypto exposure.&nbsp;



Like, a lot.&nbsp;



That’s good for choice, sure — even if those options will be consolidated down the line once we get a better sense of where the space is headed. I wrote earlier this week about the demand for crypto equities (and how some <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evaluating-crypto-stocks-ipos-on-deck">are evaluating those</a>) as more such stocks (like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-nyse-day-one">Circle</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bullish-closes-89-ipo-nyse">Bullish</a>) hit major exchanges.&nbsp;&nbsp;



This IPO chapter is set to collide with regulatory clarity around more crypto ETFs, setting up an all-around boom in how people can access the segment within their brokerage accounts.&nbsp;



I imagine not all these ETFs (i.e. those looking to hold SOL, XRP, DOGE and even TRUMP) will see a whole lot of demand, particularly not right away. So for fund issuers, these next months and years will be about experimentation.&nbsp;



21Shares filed for three more ETFs yesterday. One would offer broad crypto exposure via tokens themselves, ETFs, derivatives and equities. Two others offer leveraged exposure to dogecoin and SUI via derivatives.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Looks like this 21Shares ETF would invest in crypto ETPs, futures, equities. Active management &quot;lets us move beyond simple exposure and deliver strategies that adapt in real time to a rapidly evolving market.&quot; &#8211;<a href="https://twitter.com/Fede_Brokate?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Fede_Brokate</a>, head of US business (and ex-BlackRock exec). <a href="https://t.co/rCSIEgebFG">pic.twitter.com/rCSIEgebFG</a>&mdash; Ben Strack 🟪 (@strack_ben) <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben/status/1958525507655335937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“With both active and leveraged ETFs, we’re moving past replication into the next chapter of crypto investing — research-driven, forward-looking and built to give investors new ways to capture long-term growth across the digital asset ecosystem,” 21Shares’ Federico Brokate said in a statement.



Brokate previously worked at BlackRock as an iShares business strategy director — helping the world’s largest asset manager get its bitcoin ETF, IBIT, off the ground. He shifted to lead 21Shares’ US business in mid-2024.



I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/21shares-us-crypto-etf-adoption-outlook">chatted</a> with Brokate a few months before Trump’s election win. Among his points was how a solana ETF would “sit really nicely” in a portfolio alongside BTC and ETH funds.&nbsp;



Fast forward a year and the SEC again, just last week, delayed its decision on 21Shares’ proposed SOL product (and other similar proposals). Signs point to solana funds and <a href="https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1957993497912332734">single-asset ETFs</a> holding other crypto assets gaining approval once the SEC greenlights a set of so-called “generic listing standards.” Perhaps October.&nbsp;



Crypto investment product AUM hit an all-time high of $244 billion on Aug. 13, according to CoinShares. Here’s a look at this year’s impressive flows (before this week, during which capital has leaked from BTC and ETH products): <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7qxBRxxMh4TYTg5uvIjm2tZYYkN28aQluSNOZKqgc1LMsnD9tZ_BOVRN9RCfFUfPnswABaimwOz_9IDXXfZquD7XMEVcq9n7USt1JIUyWI-jZBXP7Es25xuLxBpFaBNpxsoziSg?key=_vmt4Y3LYDVg_0FeFnbkkg" width="624" height="469">



Another point Brokate made last August? Advisers in the US are likely going to one day be the biggest buyer of crypto ETFs. Those financial pros don’t want to have to pick winners and losers.&nbsp;



As Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage told me: “When multiple assets become investable, crypto index investing will be the natural path forward — offering diversification, risk mitigation and a simpler way for advisers and investors to gain exposure to the crypto economy.”



Hashdex has sought to expand the investment universe for its crypto index fund that currently just holds BTC and ETH. Crypto index funds by Grayscale and Bitwise <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-greenlights-grayscale-crypto-fund-etf">gained SEC approval</a> — but the agency issued stay orders to prevent them from listing for now.



You might recall Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evaluating-crypto-stocks-ipos-on-deck">telling me</a> earlier this week that index funds will be all the rage on the crypto stock side too as more segment firms go public.



Investors just want easy and ample access to a market poised to benefit from more institutional adoption and (buzz phrase incoming) regulatory tailwinds. From an index of 10 crypto tokens to dogecoin leverage, there will be plenty to choose from.&nbsp;



With how nascent this industry is, issuers might as well try to bring to market as many tools as possible. They can always cull their lineups later on once we see how the industry evolves.



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ETFs

Issuers keep filing ahead of expected crypto ETF launch frenzy

Macauley Peterson

A proposal to pre-mint 60 million crvUSD to bootstrap Curve’s new Yield Basis AMM is sparking debate across the <a href="https://gov.curve.finance/t/pre-mint-crvusd-allocation-to-yield-basis/10774">governance forum</a> and social media, raising deeper questions about the DAO’s authority, risk management, and how to safely scale the protocol’s stablecoin footprint.



Yield Basis, led by Curve founder <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/michael-egorov">Michael Egorov</a>, is a new Curve-native AMM that uses constant leverage to eliminate impermanent loss in Bitcoin pools. To launch its first three pools — wBTC, cbBTC and tBTC — Yield Basis is asking for a 60 million crvUSD allocation, which it says would be borrowed and paired with BTC to create LP positions on <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/curve">Curve</a> without selling the stablecoin into the market.



CrvUSD currently has a market cap of about $127 million, placing it around the 25th-largest stablecoin. Among decentralized stablecoins, however, it’s the third-largest behind <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/usds">USDS</a>/DAI and <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/gho">GHO</a>.



Proponents argue the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/michael-egorov-yield-basis-protocol">Yield Basis</a> design solves a key bottleneck for scaling <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/crvusd">crvUSD</a>: demand-side absorption.&nbsp;



“In a way, the pre‑mint is just a borrowing cap,” community member Llamaste <a href="https://gov.curve.finance/t/pre-mint-crvusd-allocation-to-yield-basis/10774/5">wrote</a>, since crvUSD is paired with BTC inside Curve pools rather than sold. Other backers compare the mechanism to Curve’s existing <a href="https://docs.curve.finance/crvUSD/pegkeepers/PegKeeperV2/">PegKeepers</a>, which also hold pre-allocated crvUSD that doesn’t count toward circulating supply.&nbsp;



But some are more skeptical.



TokenBrice, a builder of the DeFi transparency tool <a href="https://www.defiscan.info/">DeFiScan</a>, <a href="https://x.com/TokenBrice/status/1958071708776104004">called it</a> “a proposal suggesting to mint out-of-thin-air, unbacked, 60M crvUSD,” adding that this kind of “upgradability risk” contributed to Curve’s “Stage 0” rating in DeFiScan’s decentralization framework. That designation reflects Curve’s powerful DAO permissions, including the ability to arbitrarily mint crvUSD or assign control of key contracts.



Curve contributor Saint Rat, who helped draft Curve’s DeFiScan profile, defended the DAO’s structure but acknowledged the optics.&nbsp;



“The Curve DAO could choose to mint $1 trillion crvUSD… but that would kill the DAO,” they <a href="https://x.com/saint_rat/status/1958416971223245111">wrote</a>. Still, perception matters.



One way to contain the risk: structure the ask more explicitly as a credit line. Multiple governance commenters, including benoxmo, krypthye, and Saint Rat, have called for a capped, on-demand facility that only mints crvUSD when needed, with explicit per-pool limits and a kill-switch controlled by DAO governance.



Risk mitigation remains a core concern. The June 2025 <a href="https://www.halborn.com/blog/post/explained-the-resupply-hack-june-2025">Resupply exploit</a>, which led to nearly $10 million in losses due to a “donation attack” on a crvUSD-adjacent vault, was cited by several participants.&nbsp;



“[Resupply] was audited, yet a vulnerability was missed,” Saint Rat <a href="https://gov.curve.finance/t/pre-mint-crvusd-allocation-to-yield-basis/10774/6">warned</a>, asking what backstops would exist if Yield Basis is exploited while holding an active crvUSD balance.



In response, Yield Basis contributor ybllama <a href="https://gov.curve.finance/t/pre-mint-crvusd-allocation-to-yield-basis/10774/9">said</a> the system has undergone six audits and is currently running a <a href="https://audits.sherlock.xyz/contests/1102">Sherlock contest</a>. They reiterated that crvUSD is only minted when BTC is deposited, and that caps would be enforced at launch.



Still, the proposal as written does not include a first-loss insurance vault or an explicit risk fee paid to the DAO for underwriting systemic exposure. Several in the thread are now urging those additions, alongside telemetry dashboards and staged rollout — for instance, starting with WBTC only.



Yield Basis is being launched as a separate protocol with its own token (YB), which also raises some hackles, given that crvUSD bears the systemic exposure. Supporters counter that Curve will receive a portion of YB emissions to use for vote incentives in crvUSD/USDC and crvUSD/USDT pools, which should reinforce liquidity and fee generation for veCRV holders.



Yield Basis may offer a novel way to scale crvUSD, but several commenters argued that if Curve bears so much risk, the governance structure must evolve to reflect that.&nbsp;With veCRV <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/curve-governance-votes-on-6m-team-funding-proposal">voting power</a> already fragmented across liquid lockers and participation trending low on high-stakes votes, the outcome may hinge on whether the proposal is revised to include stricter constraints and safety levers.



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Curve

Curve debates 60M crvUSD pre-mint for Yield Basis amid governance pushback

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Ethereum researchers <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/08/22/protocol-update-002">published</a> a new protocol update today, outlining a multi-pronged strategy to expand blob throughput for layer-2 scalability while maintaining decentralization and censorship resistance.



Following on <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/08/05/protocol-update-001">from</a> Protocol Update 001, this update details how PeerDAS, the centerpiece design for the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, will permit nodes to sample rather than fully download blob data. This enables up to eight times higher throughput without significantly increasing hardware requirements.



Between major upgrades, “Blob Parameter Only” (BPO) forks will incrementally raise blob limits, while bandwidth optimizations like cell-level messaging <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/06/03/checkpoint-3">reduce</a> redundant data transfers.



According to AllCoreDevs discussions, Fusaka is targeting an early November mainnet launch, just <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/03/05/devconnect-2025">ahead</a> of Devconnect Buenos Aires. PeerDAS (EIP-7594) has been confirmed as Fusaka’s headliner, and a BPO mechanism (EIP-7892) has been scheduled for inclusion.



Fusaka testing is already underway on devnets, with client teams preparing for public testnet deployments through September and October before mainnet activation. 



Meanwhile, developers are <a href="https://blog.ethereum.org/2025/07/29/checkpoint-5">preparing</a> Glamsterdam, the subsequent network upgrade expected around mid-2026, which will further extend PeerDAS with advanced networking and pipelining techniques.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Ethereum protocol update details plan to boost transaction capacity with blobs

This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm">keynote</a> at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium delivered a cautiously optimistic signal that seems to have renewed momentum across crypto markets.&nbsp;



Bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">rebounded</a> to trade near $115,800, up around 2% in the last 24 hours, responding to Powell’s implicit dovish lean on monetary policy. ETH and other major tokens are also showing strength, reflecting renewed investor interest heading into what could be a pivotal September Federal Reserve meeting.



Markets had pulled back in the days leading up to the speech, with BTC dipping below $112,000 and ETH <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/eth">sliding</a> over 4%. Traders positioned defensively amid uncertainty, but Powell’s measured tone, emphasizing flexibility and data reliance, appears to have reassured markets enough to trigger a modest relief rally. Price action suggests crypto remains highly sensitive to shifts in central bank policy expectations.



Interest rate easing typically increases liquidity and investor risk appetite, which could further boost capital flows into DeFi platforms, stablecoin infrastructure and tokenized financial instruments. Institutions and retail alike may view this environment as more conducive to launching and scaling in Web3.



However, market watchers caution that Powell’s approach was more observant and data-driven rather than decisively dovish, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/view-feds-powell-opens-door-september-easing-2025-08-22">suggesting</a> any further rallies could hinge on forthcoming economic data and Fed communication.

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech sparks renewed momentum amid rate‑cut hopes

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Investing is about beliefs in the future, and what to do when they’re wrong.”&nbsp; — Rohit Krishnan
</blockquote>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<a href="https://dba.xyz/fundamentals-vs-flows/">Fundamentals vs. flows</a>



The crypto investor Jon Charbonneau explains that crypto investing is just investing.



Whatever the asset class, he argues, there are only two basic ways to approach investing: forecasting fundamentals or predicting flows.



Fundamental investors form beliefs about future cash flows: “The whole point of fundamental investing is that you don’t need other people to agree with you” (aka the Warren Buffett way).



Flow investors form beliefs about future trading flows: “You’re just hoping someone else will buy it from you at an even higher multiple” (aka the greater fool theory).



These are familiar concepts, but it’s helpful to see them framed so thoughtfully in the context of crypto.



Either approach can work, Charbonneau says, but things get muddled if you don’t know which one you’re taking.



For example, is ETH a fundamental investment or a flows one?&nbsp;



It seems to be a little of both, which makes the investment case more complex: “It requires taking more leaps of faith around human behavior and market psychology.” That sounds difficult.&nbsp;



The simplicity of Bitcoin’s flows-based investment thesis, by contrast, has been so successful that it “can straddle the line of ‘fundamental investing’ and ‘greater fool investing’ depending on how you quantify monetary utility.”



I personally think “monetary utility” is mostly fake news, but I also think bitcoin has probably hit escape velocity and can now be considered a fundamental investment, like gold.&nbsp;



Crypto investing more generally may be at a similar inflection point.&nbsp;



“Historically, it has paid off to be primarily flows-driven as a crypto investor,” Charbonneau notes. “Looking forward though, I believe that focusing more on fundamentals&#8230;could finally produce more alpha as the industry matures.”



That would be good news because, as Charbonneau adds, “narrative trading” is a zero-sum game (I’d call it negative sum), while “allocating capital to projects capable of generating cashflows can be a positive-sum game.”&nbsp;



Charbonneau highlights digital asset treasury companies as flows-based investments, so it’s perhaps ironic that they’re catching on with TradFi investors at the same time that fundamentals are catching on in crypto.



“Crypto investing is becoming relatively more fundamentals-driven,” he says, while “TradFi investing is becoming relatively more flows-driven.”



“Someday they’ll converge, and we’ll just be talking about investing.”



Let’s hope they meet somewhere on the fundamentals side of center.



<a href="https://ritholtz.com/2024/02/transcript-david-einhorn/">Rethinking the value game</a>



To Charbonneau’s take on fundamental investing, I would add that people who think they are investing on fundamentals are often investing on flows.&nbsp;



Last year, David Einhorn declared that &#8220;markets are fundamentally broken,&#8221; because his standard playbook of buying a stock at, say, 10x earnings and then selling it at 15x earnings was no longer working.



&#8220;The competitors have effectively left the field,&#8221; he explained.



That sounds like good news — it’s always good to have less competition, right? But fewer competitors gave Einhorn fewer opportunities to play his preferred game of &#8220;anticipating the anticipations of others.&#8221;&nbsp;



So he was forced to find a new game: “We can’t count on other long-only investors to buy our things after us,” he <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-09/uk-house-prices-perk-up-but-stresses-remain">explained</a>. “We’re going to have to get paid by the company.”



Charbonneau and Buffett would approve.



<a href="https://youtu.be/n02QEe2AHnY?si=GpAeUlAvcGPWZKXn&amp;t=355">The revenue meta</a>



Luca Netz is also hopeful that crypto investing will become more fundamentals-driven: “The days of no revenue being worth billions of dollars has to be over,” he told Laura Shin. “I think this is going to be the era of result-driven success and less speculative success.”



This, he says, will help crypto build “disruptive technologies that change the world&#8221; and not just “pseudo-disruptive technologies that you tell a story around.”



Let’s hope so.



Note: Netz runs a cartoon-penguin business based on an NFT collection and an affiliated memecoin.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/bitcoin-treasury-companies">Chanos is winning</a>



MSTR is down 21% over the past month, vs. bitcoin down just 2.5%.



That has taken MSTR’s all-important “mNAV” metric to just 1.34x (i.e., the stock is worth 34% more than the bitcoin it holds).



The falling mNAV represents a profit for short-seller Jim Chanos and a problem for Michael Saylor.



Saylor has said that Chanos doesn’t understand Strategy’s business model, but his <a href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1957413273122287738">decision</a> to continue selling stock at current levels seems like a tacit admission that the investment case for MSTR remains circularly dependent on the premium investors are willing to pay for it.



I’m not sure how investors should think about this.



The Ethereum DAT BTCS, for example, now trades at 0.65x NAV — does that make it a better or worse investment than, say, the Ethereum DAT BMNR at 1.35x NAV?



You usually want to pay as little for a stock as possible, but if the value of that stock is a function of people paying more for it, maybe you want to pay more?



I really don’t know. But falling multiples are certainly not good for existing shareholders.



Metaplanet (the Japanese version of Strategy) now trades on <a href="https://metaplanet.jp/en/analytics">1.95x NAV</a>, down from 8x just two months ago.



What’s the math on breaking even if you bought the stock at 8x NAV and you’re getting diluted by new sales at 1.95x?



Flows-based investing is hard.



<a href="https://reducibleerrors.com/prediction-markets/">The case against prediction markets</a>



Trader-philosopher <a href="https://x.com/AgustinLebron3">Agustin Lebron</a> says prediction markets are 1) bad at being markets and 2) bad for society.



They fail as markets, he explains, because every participant is trying to do the same thing: to make money trading.



This is different from financial markets, which work because “different participants have different risk preferences.”&nbsp;



Differing preferences means that both sides of a trade can benefit — like an airline buying a futures contract from an oil company, for example.



In prediction markets, where the buyer and seller have the same motivation, trades are zero-sum (just like the flows-based investing).



Supporters of prediction markets say they provide a service by giving people better information.&nbsp;



But Lebron (who, no, does not play for the Lakers) argues that “most or all of the supposed value of [prediction markets] for hedging evaporates under closer inspection.”



In short, he argues there’s no risk that can be effectively hedged by betting on something like a presidential election.



And since there’s no benefit from hedging, “prediction markets only work when there is a steady supply of dumb money.”



Casinos, sports betting and memecoins have proved there is a steady supply of dumb money, so I’d note that prediction markets might well be a successful market.&nbsp;



Lebron hopes they don’t, though, because “the very existence of the prediction market influences and hence distorts the underlying event that&#8217;s being predicted.”



He cites the example of someone who claims to have bet on Zoran Mamdani to win the New York City mayoral race and then funded Mamdani’s campaign to win the bet.&nbsp;



I’m not sure how likely or repeatable that is, but it illustrates the feedback loops that might amplify the kind of chaotic events that people like to bet on.



As a result, Lebron warns that, if prediction markets get big enough, “they might just kill our society.”



Let’s hope everyone does some fundamental investing instead.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



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Thursday links: Investing, revenue meta, DATs, prediction markets

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-drop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Did Shopify dropping Ye push him to promote his own crypto payments processor — and memecoin?



The rapper formerly known as Kanye West’s X account, which has been frequently purged after bizarre bouts of antisemitic and incoherent tweets <a href="https://www.adl.org/resources/article/unpacking-kanye-wests-antisemitic-remarks">for years</a>, is now promoting “YZY Money.”&nbsp;



Earlier this year, Shopify stopped powering payments for Ye’s Yeezy apparel website after the rapper began selling swastika t-shirts, resulting in the website’s temporary disappearance.&nbsp;



A Shopify spokesperson <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2025-02-11/ye-kanye-west-swastika-shirt-yeezy-demonetized-shopify">said</a> at the time back in February that the Yeezy site “did not engage in authentic commerce practices and violated our terms.”



Shopify’s legal counsel ultimately <a href="https://thelogic.co/news/shopify-takes-down-kanye-west-nazi-tshirt-store/">clarified</a> that the Yeezy Shopify site was taken down due to a risk of fraud to consumers, not because of the Nazi swastika itself.&nbsp;



Details of an internal Slack memo from Shopify legal counsel described the t-shirt as a “vile, disgusting, and inexcusable” stunt. They also said it “was not a good faith attempt to make money” and “brought with it the real risk of fraud.” 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1208" height="1461" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-106456" style="width:460px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=1208 1208w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=248 248w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=847 847w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=212 212w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=216 216w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=181 181w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/image-3.png?w=66 66w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1208px) 100vw, 1208px" /></figure>



Now there’s a YZY memecoin, Ye Pay, and the YZY Card.&nbsp;



Let’s all take a moment and ask ourselves: What could go wrong?



The memecoin is live and a contract address is visible on the Yeezy website and the rapper’s X account.&nbsp;



But RugCheck’s <a href="https://rugcheck.xyz/tokens/DrZ26cKJDksVRWib3DVVsjo9eeXccc7hKhDJviiYEEZY">analysis</a> of the token cautions: DANGER.



“The contract creator can make changes to the token contract such as contract metadata, disabling sells, changing fees, unrestrictive minting of more tokens, transferring tokens etc.,” a <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yzy">warning</a> from RugCheck that appears on CoinGecko reads.



The YZY Money website <a href="https://money.yeezy.com/">claims</a> the whole point here is to “put you in control, free from centralized authority.”



But of course, if you buy in, it’s helping Ye free you of some of your cash.



Here’s a look at the “YZYNOMICS” of this token:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd4ZzMdPLKlnDQOYcSmb_Jrei4o70d8toUSEo-KwgrFZWqswpQXMr_thukdECZ29QTCPMtskxjNIryS3maeuldAIGeEE3ewQ56Frk5omNo5RklnhkqIZcR1W9lecnu4lPPss72s9g?key=1ULqmJqXnQH-tthM7R4w4Q" alt=""/></figure>



The YZY Money website suggests Ye Pay is a “payments processor” that will be available to other online merchants.&nbsp;



The non-custodial Yzy Card is not currently available, but a waitlist has seemingly been opened for it. It’s envisioned as a way to spend YZY and Solana-based USDC.



The Yeezy site currently accepts credit card and debit card payments, as well as USDC on Solana. It promises that payments in the YZY token are “coming soon.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXecqOzJiUFVezYLRxwd37g6nTFIzmdGz4HmqNlLI8MYtWaQYbJP_FZb5SgCTzbJRr1WvptsppQTlJNmGE5QFap4syOzjwKNY3Pzxz0lFXqNKJ3nbLBd5AomUl-4_nH9IMahY7jMKQ?key=1ULqmJqXnQH-tthM7R4w4Q" alt=""/></figure>



Symbolically, all of this is the last thing crypto needs. Crypto does not need more <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/arts/music/ye-takes-back-apology.html">Nazis</a>,<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/arts/music/ye-takes-back-apology.html"> </a>self-described <a href="https://prasad.dyson.cornell.edu/doc/USATd.12Jan24.pdf">or otherwise</a>.&nbsp;



Do we really want figures like Ye being the spokespeople of our industry? Do we want this to be the thing your Average Joe thinks about when he thinks about crypto?



Crypto still has a bad PR problem — and moves like this will only make that worse.



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The Drop newsletter

Kanye West’s YZY memecoin is the last thing crypto needs

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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As we reach the end of August, all eyes are once again on the Grand Tetons.&nbsp;



Not because of its striking views, but because the annual Woodstock of central banking is about to go down.&nbsp;



Tomorrow morning, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his keynote speech. Historically, these speeches have served as key inflection points for the Federal Reserve’s thinking on monetary policy from a high level. More importantly, it’s an opportunity for Powell to speak for himself and not on behalf of the whole FOMC committee.



There are two key catalysts to consider as we await tomorrow&#8217;s speech.&nbsp;



The first: any indication about whether a rate cut will come in September.&nbsp;



Right now, CME futures project a 71% odds of a cut, down from 92% odds last week: 



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdxi8FHpRLLE0Ds3c6oBluGhKF7Rj6c57hFUDN2RsI3bHGduMaRqvJK9owVNicqYccB_UCn3tE4c56dmvt_2MEaCwNANYvqkPGwxchlRA5jr0LwFH-FLn3G9vCmhzMk_QrYHIEp?key=Nxka_Imr3e70r4FrpKLjbA" alt="" style="width:692px;height:auto"/></figure>



The crux of this consideration is a very weak jobs report last month, combined with inflation that seems to keep surprising to the upside and shows no signs of returning to the Fed’s 2% target.&nbsp;



Andy Constan <a href="https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1958145296195579914">tweeted out</a> a helpful framework of how to think about the probabilities of what could happen here:



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdFsxHS3n3ZWRCOoDBtJe7GRElR0a1UVi-bp9aRcEV4ImAmbPLQUuMDCWt9mmOhBqS3EP3X9mB5OS6BMlvfzi1tUZlGfYE9Vl_TQeBmEU__nJWoLdVfJsHma79vBOCf1n1Kv53rLg?key=Nxka_Imr3e70r4FrpKLjbA" alt="" style="width:615px;height:auto"/></figure>



The second potential catalyst: The Fed will publish the results of its five-year monetary policy framework review.&nbsp;



In its last review in 2019, the FOMC introduced its flexible average interest targeting (FAIT), which targeted an average of 2% of inflation over the long term. With inflation running above its 2% target for nearly five years now, this framework is expected to be retired and a return toward a hardline target of 2% is anticipated.&nbsp;



Underlying this shift are implications around what the Fed perceives to be the neutral rate.&nbsp;



Right now, the Fed sees the current federal funds rate as slightly above neutral. This opens the possibility of Fed cuts without an easing stance. If the Fed were to move its neutral rate higher, such a move could indirectly imply that it no longer thinks the cuts are restrictive and thus dampen expectations of imminent reductions.



Personally, I believe the FOMC meeting minutes from July lay the groundwork for a hawkish surprise tomorrow.&nbsp;



The minutes were outright hawkish and hinted at a committee that is not inclined to cut at all: 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdQ_p01JGnqvfSZriRG3RTUhYb90af9JwOMQIic-Ufq35sV6J7MjeVGSun6f363lQQFY8d7LvzF_qY-GSxprB8RZOSLMVyHi92vzTbtW711F3SHuQLKLHeJjEj4ebFtU-FxO5miXg?key=Nxka_Imr3e70r4FrpKLjbA" alt=""/></figure>



That said, these minutes were written before the weak jobs report that sparked expectations of rate cuts in September, so they could be seen as stale. I disagree with that notion.&nbsp;



These minutes can be tweaked up until right before they are released and every FOMC member needs to sign off and approve them —&nbsp;including non-voting presidents and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/powell-resolute-amid-rate-dissents">the dissenters</a> from the last meeting.&nbsp;



I believe that despite the weak jobs report from last month, the inflation story is still so volatile that Fed officials were keen to still showcase these hawkish minutes. Knowing that these were going to be the last breadcrumbs of monetary policy stance before Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, I believe they hint at a committee that is much less committed to a September rate cut compared to what markets currently believe.



Let’s see how much of that ends up being correct tomorrow or whether I’ll be eating crow.



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Economy

Could FOMC minutes be hinting at a hawkish Jackson Hole speech?

DBS, Singapore’s largest bank, has taken a notable step onchain by moving its structured-note tokenization efforts onto <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a> mainnet.&nbsp;



The bank announced Thursday that it will issue crypto-linked structured notes as $1,000-denominated tokens, distributed through three digital investment platforms: ADDX, DigiFT, and HydraX.



This is DBS’s first use of Ethereum’s public blockchain for token issuance, expanding beyond earlier experiments on permissioned networks. The bank framed the launch as part of a larger strategy to “scale this ecosystem by fostering responsible innovation” and meet demand for more flexible portfolio tools, according to Li Zhen, Head of Foreign Exchange and Digital Assets, Global Financial Markets at DBS.



Unlike traditional structured notes, which typically require a $100,000 minimum investment and are tailored individually, tokenization breaks instruments into smaller, fungible units. DBS said this “bite-sized” format should make structured notes more liquid and accessible to accredited and institutional investors.



Still, the extent of that liquidity is bounded. Compared to crypto-native structured products — such as <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/boros-pendle-tokenizes-funding-rates">yield instruments from Pendle</a> — DBS’s notes will not circulate freely across Ethereum’s open ecosystem.



Kelvin Tan, who heads tokenization at DBS’ global financial markets group, said the aim is to help investors “manage their portfolios across platforms with greater precision and agility.”



“Tokenising a structured note on the Ethereum public blockchain provides eligible accredited and institutional investors with greater flexibility to transfer and trade individual ‘bite-sized’ tokens between whitelisted wallets across different platforms, compared to an entire structured note,” Tan told Blockworks.&nbsp;



That design reflects how banks are approaching Ethereum: as settlement rails and programmable infrastructure rather than an open market. Tan acknowledged the bank will not deposit tokens in decentralized liquidity pools, a contrast with DeFi tokens, which often circulate unrestricted.



DBS also sees Ethereum as a foundation for future features.&nbsp;



According to Tan, “the Ethereum public blockchain gives DBS the flexibility to explore future on-chain use cases for the bank&#8217;s tokenised structured notes. This could include atomic settlement of token issuances with stablecoins, as well as wrapping tokens for re-distribution across other blockchains.”



For now, distribution remains confined to accredited and institutional investors via DBS’s selected partner platforms. That ensures compliance with KYC and AML requirements, but it also highlights the difference between bank-issued and DeFi-native instruments. Standards such as ERC-1400 and ERC-3643 exist to allow issuers to embed compliance into token behavior. However, DBS has not disclosed whether it’s using one of these established frameworks, or a custom, proprietary contract.



But the bank did say the demand for such instruments is rising.&nbsp;



In the first half of 2025, its clients traded more than $1 billion of crypto options and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-tradfi-degen-products">structured notes</a>, with volumes up nearly 60% quarter-on-quarter. The tokenized offering extends access to accredited and institutional investors who are not already DBS clients.



The bank’s first issuance is a cash-settled crypto-linked participation note, designed to deliver payouts when cryptocurrency prices rise while capping potential downside. Beyond that, DBS plans to tokenize equity-linked and credit-linked notes.



Singapore’s financial sector has been at the forefront of tokenization efforts under the country’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/project-guardian">Project Guardian</a> initiative. While open finance broadly thrives on open liquidity and permissionless composability, DBS’s experiment on Ethereum highlights both the promise and the limits of tokenization when banks come onchain.



Updated 8/21/2025 at 4:00 p.m. ET to clarify that DBS&#8217; tokenization is not part of Singapore&#8217;s Project Guardian.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Banking

DBS taps Ethereum for tokenized structured notes, but trading stays fenced

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



The Solana ecosystem revolves heavily around the aptly named Jupiter protocol, and for good reason.



They’re an ambitious team trying to do damn near everything in DeFi.



In 2021, Jupiter launched a DEX aggregator on Solana, the dominant venue today for routing order flows to DEXs and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solanas-proprietary-amms">prop AMMs</a>. Alongside the aggregator, Jupiter founder meow also launched Mercurial DEX, rebranded today as Meteora.



A perps DEX followed in 2023, then a memecoin launchpad in 2024, and then a majority stake <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jupiter-majority-stake-moonshot">acquisition</a> in the Moonshot memecoin trading platform earlier this year. There’s also the upcoming omnichain network “<a href="https://meow.bio/jupnet.html">JupNet</a>,” which plans to aggregate liquidity across chains.&nbsp;



But all eyes this week are on Jupiter Lend, the superapp’s first formal foray into the Lending vertical.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">jupiter lend public beta coming this week 👀👀👀 devs had a last-minute idea to make it even better, can&#39;t wait to show you all&mdash; Jupiter (🐱, 🐐) (@JupiterExchange) <a href="https://twitter.com/JupiterExchange/status/1958228036555313204?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 20, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Jupiter’s lending product is built on Fluid’s liquidity/risk engine. If you’ve never heard of Fluid, it’s a protocol that took the Ethereum world by storm over the past year.



To see the promise of Jupiter Lend requires a baseline understanding of how Fluid actually works. It’s not the most straightforward product, but here’s the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/defi-superapp-competitor-to-aave-uniswap">gist</a>.



Fluid (previously Instadapp) is an integrated application consisting of DEX, lending and borrowing. All three draw from a unified liquidity layer, which enables unique features that just aren’t possible on other DEXs or lending protocols.



For instance, a borrower on Fluid can denominate their debt to serve as liquidity for Fluid DEX (what the team calls “smart debt”), rather than letting it sit idle as posted collateral.



This, in effect, puts a borrower’s debt to “work.” As traders on the DEX side are paying fees to trade, that lets borrowers earn fees to reduce their debt. It’s somewhat unintuitive, for it inverts the logic of how we commonly think of debt as an unproductive asset that needs to be paid down.



This is how Fluid opens up billions of dollars in “TVL” that isn’t actually TVL, at least not in the conventional DeFi sense. Which leads to memes like these:



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeD-OeW5i3Mb0RfbF0-sfWmO04iAlUfag15JjUB1Nv9PbJe3drG1tqWZNLwmpO7B5NxH9gGFg2CDfrDbmYxCdKk4thi6BK75EPHxLYtflMIEI56kJ4DMeRqrIzhUUu_jg-6l1wd?key=oyKFHnWHafLE8mY6xJPfeA" alt="" style="width:671px;height:auto"/></figure>



Fluid also has perhaps one of the most advanced liquidation engines in DeFi. Its borrowing vaults bucket positions into “ticks,” which liquidates positions partially as markets move, rather than in one fell swoop.&nbsp;



Again, Fluid’s tight integration allows liquidations to simply settle as ordinary swaps on its own DEX.



This combo drastically reduces slippage and penalties (~0.1%). And the end result is that it enables abnormally high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of 90-95% on its lending product. For context, even highly liquid assets like WBTC/WETH have LTVs of 70-85% on Aave.



As a testament to Fluid’s success, its lending has $1.4 billion in active loans since its launch on Ethereum less than a year ago, per Blockworks Research data.



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdBGcx0EQFgjZUbmUK6e7lza9DjxgN5oMfIKeN2nIVeuP08SL4dp_bvQfSQYoDOEi2VW_sVOgZB-lUoYNSXqHmdKMXM5het0ycDcUhkNsQeh8DMyycRQPAgT2AVdjGjTeXo9bXt?key=oyKFHnWHafLE8mY6xJPfeA" alt="" style="width:668px;height:auto"/></figure>



And you can see strong traction on its DEX product too.



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcLRTxoWd7arKoZfXozpSlcyQ4GEjyDlRH-vnYgrimJHpBpioI69b-SA2Ha4p1oI4rC24MlHM29tRHb45W9lCtC-wsawuFeIHVzjKylboFEyoutMHLy9BiRMpqppFcOEsYx5tzJDA?key=oyKFHnWHafLE8mY6xJPfeA" alt="" style="width:677px;height:auto"/></figure>



Jupiter founder meow has a close relationship with the Fluid founders. You can read more about that <a href="https://meow.bio/fluid">here</a>.



It’ll be interesting to see how well Jupiter can replicate Fluid’s success in the SVM world. Kamino has a stronghold on that market, but market leader positions in DeFi are fleeting. Definitely one of the major battles to watch on Solana.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Lightspeed Newsletter

Jupiter Lend readies for public beta launch this week

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Kanye did it. He launched a memecoin on Solana.



Some say this is the top signal for which we’ve been waiting, making Yeezy the Lisan al-Gaib of bears.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="730" height="376" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png" alt="" class="wp-image-106383" style="width:481px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=730 730w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1958346810801697237">Source</a></figcaption></figure>



Maybe so. Although the top signals were much, much louder last time around.



For one thing, Yeezy has fallen off. I’m not sure YZY on Meteora in 2025 will ever have the same impact as if it was sold at the height of the Yeezy brand circa 2020.



Still, I spent my morning going over archives of crypto headlines from the tail-end of the monster 2021 bull market.



What were the signs that crypto would peak at a $3-trillion market cap in the second week of November?&nbsp;



Any top signal would need to come within six months of that cycle peak, I decided. You probably remember that 2021 saw two major tops, in May and November, so really any signal that came before May would’ve ultimately pointed to much higher prices (making them bullish signals).



And yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But tell me that these headlines weren’t screaming that a top was soon near.



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-closes-900m-series-b-round-valuing-exchange-at-18b">FTX Closes $900M Series B Round Valuing Exchange at $18B</a>” — July 20, 2021 (yes, that’s a $900-million raise).



“Tim Berners-Lee sells web source code NFT for $5.4m” — June 30, 2021 (132 days until top).



“CityCoins Community Officially Launches with MiamiCoin, Its First City-Based Token” — August 3, 2021 (remember these?)



“El Salvador buys bitcoin as the digital currency becomes legal tender” — September 6, 2021.



“OpenSea admits insider trading of NFTs it promoted” — September 16, 2021 (arguably the most compelling yet).



“China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal” — September 2, 2021 (68 days until top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbases-new-direct-deposit-feature-allows-users-to-get-paychecks-in-crypto">Coinbase’s New Direct Deposit Feature Allows Users to Get Paychecks in Crypto</a>” — September 27, 2021.



“TikTok Is Auctioning Its NFT Collection Featuring Lil Nas X, Grimes, Bella Poarch, More” — October 1, 2021 (NFT = Nearly Freakin’ Top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/celsius-valued-at-3-25b-after-400m-raise-amid-regulatory-headwinds">Celsius Valued at $3.25B After $400M Raise Amid Regulatory Headwinds</a>” — October 12, 2021 (narrator: Celsius would file for bankruptcy nine months later and its CEO would eventually be sentenced to 12 years’ prison for fraud).



“Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX raises a $420.69M Series B-1 at a $25B valuation from 69 investors, including BlackRock and Tiger Global” — October 21, 2021 (I mean, this one was a doozy, especially paired with the Celsius saga).



“Facebook Changes Company Name to Meta in Focus on Metaverse” — October 28, 2021 (12 days until top).



“Incoming NYC Mayor Eric Adams: Pay Me In Bitcoin” — November 4, 2021.



“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/technology/nft-nyc-metaverse.html">Crypto Is Cool. Now Get on the Yacht</a>” — November 5, 2021 (all about NFT.NYC, the New York conference that attracted a record 5,000 attendees just four days before the top).



“About 5% of Sotheby’s, Christie’s Contemporary Art Auctions Are NFTs” — November 8, 2021 (one day before the top).



To cap it off, Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-reports-q3-net-revenue-dropped-39-to-1-234b">released</a> on the exact day that crypto peaked. Revenue had dropped 39%, from $2 billion to just over $1.2 billion, lower than estimates, and the number of monthly transacting users dipped 16%. COIN tanked 12% in postmarket trading as a result.



So, does a lame ChatGPT 5 release, a new SPAC from Chamath, Meta hiring freeze and a memecoin from washed entertainer stack up to this monumental run of headlines? Not really.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The top signals rolling in fast. Chamath SPAC, Meta hiring freeze, OpenAI admitting GPT-5 is a “miss”, Kanye coin. All in 48h. <a href="https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S">https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S</a>&mdash; Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1958353499848147190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



But then again, it may be another cycle or two before crypto runs back its cultural significance, as it was in 2021. The signals might be quieter this time around.



Read More: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paris-hilton-bitcoin-celebrity-indicators">Was Katy Perry a top signal in 2022?</a>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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Empire Newsletter

If Kanye’s memecoin is a top signal, then crypto has fallen off

Kraken has become the first major crypto exchange to fully adopt Distributed Validator Technology (DVT) across its Ethereum staking infrastructure, using the open-source SSV Network protocol.&nbsp;



The move marks a major shift towards a more decentralized validator architecture for <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a>.



“Following the successful transition, [100%] of Kraken’s ETH staking infrastructure runs on distributed validator clusters, rather than single-machine validators,” a <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/kraken">Kraken</a> spokesperson told Blockworks.



DVT decentralizes validator operations by splitting responsibilities across multiple independent nodes that cooperate to perform attestations and block proposals. Kraken said each validator is now operated by “a cluster of typically four independent nodes,” with deliberate diversity in both software and geography.&nbsp;



“We design for maximum diversity: nodes are spread across different regions and run a mix of Ethereum client implementations to avoid any single-client bug impacting the whole cluster,” the spokesperson added.



Key management was also overhauled as part of the migration. “As part of our transition to DVT, validator keys were split and distributed to cluster operators to ensure no single operator holds the entire key,” Kraken said. For newly created validators, keys are generated in a distributed manner “so the full private key is never assembled.”



To reduce slashing risk, Kraken’s operators use a synchronized, distributed slashing-protection database. “If a node goes offline, it can sync the history of signed duties from the cluster before signing anything new,” the spokesperson explained.



SSV Labs, which is a core contributor to the DVT protocol, emphasized the modularity and configurability of its approach. “The nature of DVT is more diversity by design, and it is more of a ‘user’ choice. Every participant can optimize for diversity, whatever that means for them,” an SSV spokesperson told Blockworks.



Kraken’s implementation gives a strong boost to DVT adoption, according to Alon Muroch, SSV Labs founder and core contributor. “It demonstrates that the technology is ready for use at scale in institutional staking environments,” Muroch said.



Originally known under Blox.io and CoinDash brands, the team behind SSV Network pivoted, beginning in early 2021, launching the <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/ssv">SSV</a> token, to focus on noncustodial ETH staking infrastructure, and later DVT, <a href="https://medium.com/%40researchcoindelta/ssv-network-transforming-ethereum-staking-with-unrivaled-security-9c69aa7dbad7">supported</a> by an Ethereum Foundation grant. SSV Network was created <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ssv-network-decentralized-staking-infrastructure">to help decentralize staking infrastructure</a>.



The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/obol-launches-obol-token-validator">rise of DVT solutions</a> like SSV and Obol help Ethereum <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/bellcurve/dca8d3ea-2574-11ee-b0e7-1b2252d58a45">reduce centralization risks</a> by distributing validator duties across diverse operators and geographic locations, enhancing uptime, slashing safety, and the overall robustness of network consensus.



Updated August 21, 2025, at 1:00 pm ET: Kraken clarified that all its validators are now on distributed clusters. Updated August 22, 2025 at 4:08 am ET: Clarified SSV Networks&#8217; role in DVT infrastructure.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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</ul>

Ethereum

Kraken completes full DVT integration for Ethereum staking using SSV

Kunal Doshi

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



The weakness in the market continues, with BTC and ETH down 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively, over the last seven days. With majors showing a first real sign of correction in weeks, it’s an apt time to ask if the local top could be in.&nbsp;



One segment of the market I like to watch is retail interest. When retail participation surges, it often signals that the crowd is in, which historically marks the local top in markets.&nbsp;



The first key indicator is weekly spot volume on CEXs. Last week, spot volumes reached $465 billion, approaching levels seen in January and March this year when the market was hitting new highs. Since most retail users trade through CEXs given the ease of onboarding, elevated volumes here provide a clear signal of growing retail engagement.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdsqsxAIBX1fsW9isKUsLqvY7vqxmSMOOerKhK4188P1Mn-klqSAEVNaHOJvasn9AQsLfiUSrH2LQEDtb71ngDkKs12_JwcY6E-O6RmagNotrbLDP8ug-cPbcm0Qph53pdvHss9KA?key=7EbrmKQzVODYrpHPXbYHAw" alt=""/></figure>



Search trends offer another powerful lens into retail sentiment. Interest in terms like “Crypto”, “Ethereum”, and “Altcoins” is climbing sharply, set to reach levels last seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcYlbO3tbIIWZqAxNu-hE7gWZ7UFtvHrXR9q04jm9f-ycWnDtxyyP_2dXzBm0uMj2VM0LNd-FFwnhVTkkyMB0dRHfgQHxjLgq8I6VVDrs-hKHAPl92ONYahwC4SVRhK45jivyUcgg?key=7EbrmKQzVODYrpHPXbYHAw" alt=""/></figure>



Even anecdotal signals matter. I am noticing more friends asking how to get started in crypto, which always catches my attention. While retail adoption is positive for the long term, sudden FOMO-driven spikes in these indicators often reflect emotional, late-stage buying from people chasing quick gains.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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0xResearch Newsletter

Same game, new players — but retail’s now smarter

Katherine Ross

Stablecoin payments processor Loop Crypto raised a strategic round co-led by VanEck and Fabric Ventures, the firm exclusively told Blockworks.&nbsp;



This brings the total funding raised by the firm to $6 million, but the team declined to give specifics on the most recent round.&nbsp;



Co-founders Eleni Steinman and Shane van Coller noted that they — like many in crypto — couldn’t have foreseen the rapid rise in stablecoins.&nbsp;



For Steinman specifically, Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge earlier this year showed that bigger players “see the value in rebuilding the payment rails and that it&#8217;s working…people really are choosing stablecoin payments because of their value proposition of being faster, cheaper, and just inherently global.”



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/vaneck">VanEck’s</a> Wyatt Lonergan said: “Once you start moving to stablecoins, like everything is instant, and in fact, that win, win, lose is inverted. The losers are kind of the banks that sit between you and the merchant, and the merchant can get access to their funds, and you can do all these really expressive, interesting things with stablecoins.”



“And that&#8217;s a lot of the tools that Loop has built to enable what feels like the same payment process for a merchant or a business to accept money,” Lonergan added.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/two-vaneck-funds-back-depin-dawn">Exclusive: 2 VanEck funds back Solana-based DePIN DAWN</a>



Loop has, as an example, built out the ability to charge a subscription using stablecoins.&nbsp;



“We basically get an approval from the user who&#8217;s paying in that stablecoin for our smart contract to spend that stablecoin on their behalf. So when they sign up for the subscription, the first thing that they do is sign this approval transaction, which gives us the ability to go and pull money from their wallets when that subscription becomes due in the future. So it really is a pull payment from the wallet, versus a payment that a lot of other payment solutions do,” van Coller explained.&nbsp;



Loop currently serves merchants such as Helius, OpenPay, Kaito, and Privy, just to name a few. A press release noted that paid transaction volume in the second quarter of this year jumped by 344% in comparison to the same time period last year.&nbsp;



Loop, the team noted, has had both crypto native and non-crypto native merchants looking for stablecoin payment solutions.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-venture-fund-crypto-ai">Is crypto’s ‘ChatGPT’ moment nearly here?</a>



“​​Our game plan is to keep trying to grow…basically, how many merchants are using us, right? Are we solving their problems? And the quality of that merchant really matters to us too, so we don&#8217;t want to serve just like 1,000 merchants who are maybe doing a few transactions, but can we solve problems for 10 really good merchants and build tools that really meet their needs,” Steinman told Blockworks.&nbsp;



Lonergan added that he sees a “huge role” for projects in the space that are “neutral,” meaning that they aren’t pushing their own stablecoin and instead allow merchants to have a slew of choices based on their needs.&nbsp;



“It feels like even though it&#8217;s been massive growth, like it&#8217;s still really tiny compared to the payments. B2B payments is a $190 trillion category…And so I&#8217;m not quite sure that we know what businesses and consumers want yet. I think the winners are going to be ones that still could play that neutral role and just, again, facilitate whatever the customer needs,” Lonergan said.&nbsp;



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raise

Exclusive: Loop Crypto raises round led by VanEck, Fabric Ventures

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking of them.”



— Alfred North Whitehead
</blockquote>



Investors love the pricing power of “last mile” businesses.&nbsp;



Comcast charges $75 a month for internet access because it buried the cable outside your house that connects you to the world wide web.&nbsp;



Walmart is the last mile of consumer goods because its shelves are where supply meets demand, and brands pay dearly (in discounts and promotions) to win a place on them.



Amazon charges third-party sellers as much as 45% of their sale price for access to its virtual shelf space and last-mile network of warehouses and delivery trucks.



Is this how the stablecoin business will work as well?



Last week, we learned that both Stripe and Circle are building stablecoin-optimized blockchains, and the timing (on the same day, even) inevitably frames this as a competition: “Circle and Stripe now appear to be converging on the same goal: building rival financial networks for digital money,” Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/circle-bets-on-its-own-blockchain-in-challenge-to-payment-giants">reported</a>.&nbsp;



If so, they will likely be converging from different directions.&nbsp;



Stripe’s blockchain, Tempo, is expected to focus first on retail-merchant payments, while Circle’s Arc sounds more like behind-the-scenes infrastructure — “an enterprise-grade foundation for stablecoin payments, FX and capital markets applications,” as they pitch it.



It’s tempting to say Stripe starts with an advantage here, since it’s already a last-mile business — it owns the checkout button and the customer relationship, connecting directly to more than a million merchants.&nbsp;



Circle, by contrast, has no direct contact to its end-users at all — we get our USDC on exchanges, not from Circle itself.



But the last mile isn’t always the place to make money.



Gas stations, for example, earn only pennies on each gallon of gas they sell while the oil majors they buy from make much bigger profits upstream. Retail brokers have to offer customers free trading while the exchanges they connect to mint money from data and transaction fees.



In other industries, however, the last mile and the infrastructure can be equally profitable: Nvidia and AWS, for example, both do very well for themselves.



The business of moving money that Stripe and Circle are both hoping to disrupt is enormous: Austin Campbell <a href="https://youtu.be/cULv9k3ExdM?si=Zk9cEvnFaOvDG9xY&amp;t=621">notes</a> that international transfers alone move roughly $1.25 quintillion annually. The all-in cost for a bank to make an international wire transfer is <a href="https://www.financialprofessionals.org/docs/librariesprovider8/default-document-library/determining-your-true-cost-of-payments.pdf?sfvrsn=52b5166b_2&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">over $8</a>, so I imagine there’s a lot of money for Circle to make just from banks (without ever reaching the end user) if it figures out how to do it cheaper with stablecoins.



Payments are also highly complex.



A single dollar spent on a YouTube ad, for example, might be collected in euros, split between Google in Ireland, a content creator in India and a publisher in Brazil, then routed through multiple banks, in multiple currencies — all of which is set in motion by a click on a website.



If Stripe can use programmable money to automate that complexity at the de minimis cost of a stablecoin transaction, its Tempo blockchain could be a hit.



There are many more niches of the payments world to disrupt, so even if Stripe and Circle are destined to converge, it might be a long time before they actually compete.&nbsp;



There should be plenty for both to do — it’s reasonable to imagine that every kind of payment could someday be made in stablecoins.



Guillaume Poncin, CTO of the crypto infrastructure provider Alchemy, told me that banking infrastructure “will run on blockchain rails,” noting that stablecoins are particularly well-suited for cross-border payments, ACH transfers and interchange payments between banks.



It might happen fast. “In five years,” Cosmo Jiang told <a href="https://youtu.be/QX6jxGQlM-w?si=s6g2i_xxfXP0md8z&amp;t=4617">Empire</a>, &#8220;I&#8217;d be shocked if not all the financial applications on your phone were running on blockchain rails.”



If so, it probably won’t happen on a general-purpose chain like Ethereum.



For stablecoins to be used at scale in the real world, they will probably have to be on a specialized blockchain like what Circle is <a href="https://6778953.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/6778953/Arc%20Litepaper%20-%202025.pdf">building</a> — with predictable fees, dispute resolution, privacy for users and transparency for regulators.&nbsp;



I’m sure Stripe’s yet-to-be-announced chain will have similar functionality. But that doesn’t mean it will be a direct competitor.



If the stablecoin market gets as big as they think it will, it might not be Stripe vs. Circle, but Stripe and Circle both.



Or neither, maybe.



Austin Campbell believes that in the race to build stablecoin payment rails, “the answer to who will win is none of the people on the field.”



The race itself is only in its first mile.



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The stablecoin marathon enters its first mile

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Recent developments in Congress and comments from senators indicate that a market structure bill won’t be as easy to pass as the GENIUS Act.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Clarity on CLARITY?</h2>



Before Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the Jackson Hole spotlight Friday, other bigwigs in the same valley gave us some regulatory tidbits to chew on at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium. 



US Sen. Tim Scott and SEC Chair Paul Atkins shared the type of praise for Donald Trump you’d expect from a Republican leader and an agency head nominated by the president. Making the US “the crypto capital of the world,” yada yada yada.&nbsp;



But between the lines, there were some more substantial soundbites. For example, Scott — chair of the Senate Banking Committee — addressed market structure legislation. Perhaps you remember Scott, Cynthia Lummis and others introducing a “discussion draft” last month that built upon the CLARITY Act <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-house-passes-clarity-act">passed by the House</a>.



It looks to define “ancillary assets” in a bid to clarify which digital assets are not securities, and it directs the SEC to “tailor existing requirements to digital asset activity.”



Eighteen Democrats voted for the GENIUS Act. Scott said he thinks he’ll have between 12 and 18 Dems at least open to voting for a market structure bill.&nbsp;



But it’s “a far more complicated piece of legislation,” he acknowledged, and someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren standing in the way of Democrats wanting to participate is, in his words, “a real force to overcome.”



Patrick Daugherty, head of the blockchain and digital assets practice at law firm Foley &amp; Lardner, agreed that this legislative effort is no sure thing. He also emphasized the difference between what the House passed and what the Senate Banking Committee revealed.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The CLARITY Act would help layer-1 blockchain builders, for example, raise capital more efficiently and protect them from failing to register with the SEC, the lawyer told me. Crypto exchanges would also be safer from attack for trading unregistered tokens.



Side note: To the contrary, it seems crypto project leaders may have to fend off overly friendly commissioners wanting to get coffee near their hometowns.



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeLzxBefKCZDDMAL8wKNkXH-Grfs0UA3qpnt15WCkY-_MRBywz_vX7J_20aPpr1vSlN0RqSUfcaWuZeWSWTItQnRF9qYep96CrRv15Vzr7DZlgi8IZyeEr9zECtr_r2waX1Uh0lSg?key=8kOZ-8YQc2Z_Vp7WC6s7Iw" alt="" style="width:772px;height:auto"/></figure>



This CLARITY legislation would give both the SEC and CFTC jurisdiction over certain parts of the industry — with regulation around this technology able to shift from one agency to the other, Daugherty added.&nbsp;



Scott’s proposal puts more of the rule-making and regulation burden on the SEC. It’s worth noting, though, that the Senate Agriculture Committee — with oversight of the CFTC — is expected to soon introduce its own draft language focused on digital commodities.



“More than the stablecoin statute, either market structure statute, if enacted, will require considerable rulemaking and interpretation by the SEC and the securities bar who are following developments closely,” Daugherty said. “Will CLARITY clarify the law? Yes, but less than some would like.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Atkins doubles down on ‘super-app’ approach</h2>



Atkins hammered home some of his “Project Crypto” priorities in a discussion later that morning — with some relating to the regulatory jurisdictions mentioned above. If you forgot the gist of the SEC chair’s broad plans:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">A portion of SEC chair Paul Atkins&#39; response to yesterday&#39;s White House report. &quot;Project Crypto&quot; underway &#8230; <a href="https://t.co/yO5g0S806i">pic.twitter.com/yO5g0S806i</a>&mdash; Ben Strack 🟪 (@strack_ben) <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben/status/1950975816323493918?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Atkins had also noted, in the July 31 remarks, that he would help the Senate craft a market structure bill “that future proofs our markets against regulatory mischief.”



He then said Tuesday: “I didn’t come to Washington to engage in a turf battle,”



He doubled down on themes of being flexible as the marketplace and technology evolves, as well as implementing a so-called super-app approach.&nbsp;



“Five or 10 years from now, things will be completely different I’m sure,” Atkins said. “And we can’t put things into little cement-surrounded pockets that are immutable.”



Friendly competition and a balance of power is key, he noted — in part to guard against one regulator becoming “too obstinate.”



Related is the super-app piece. Atkins is talking about (as elaborated on a few weeks ago), letting securities intermediaries offer a bunch of products and services “under one roof with a single license.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfqdwpPcuNa8UKy_-j5QRSXTYqzGlfD0aPdGQnkmwF9BC0SHOFi3iktxkZUaklGhNmBFSZPk0xo-0kH6IpSUlbUdxbU31J9a-qNPuZK3jm2H-hHcBIkp3FstM7bJtfxlFhYgWft0g?key=8kOZ-8YQc2Z_Vp7WC6s7Iw" alt=""/></figure>



Republicans previously <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/what-they-are-saying-support-for-scotts-september-deadline-on-digital-asset-market-structure-legislation">aimed</a> to advance market structure legislation by Sept. 30, and Scott reiterated on Tuesday the urgency of getting this done: “Executive action is not enough. Period.”



Between future-proofing this bill and getting enough bipartisan support, it seems this tall task could take longer than some hope.



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