Raydium is an automated market maker (AMM) built on the Solana blockchain that uses the central order book of the Serum decentralized exchange (DEX) to fulfill trades. Raydium's swap feature allows users to exchange between tokens through Serum, while its UI also allows for other trading features like limit orders. The exchange also features a token called RAY that will allow holders to claim 0.03% of trading fees.

Raydium

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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A feline-branded conference held in Istanbul this weekend gave away some of the future ambitions of Solana’s top swap app, Jupiter.&nbsp;



At so-called Catstanbul, Jupiter and its colorful founder known as meow made headlines for turning on protocol fees that will lead to token buybacks. It’s also launching a $10 million AI fund alongside AI agent upstart <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stanford-lab-ai16z-partnership">Eliza Labs</a> as well as a multi-blockchain network that would expand beyond Solana.&nbsp;



But the most interesting announcement — to me at least — came when Jupiter said it had taken a majority stake in Moonshot, a memecoin app that Donald Trump directed buyers to use during his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-more-than-a-memecoin">memecoin launch</a>.



Jupiter’s killer feature is its swap interface, which routes user trades across DEXs to achieve the best possible price. For all intents and purposes, Jupiter is where users get the most bang for their buck when swapping one Solana token for another. 39% of Solana DEX trades go through Jupiter, according to a Dune <a href="https://dune.com/ilemi/solana-dex-metrics">dashboard</a>, and Jupiter currently has no real competitor as far as DEX aggregation goes.



But Jupiter has been hinting at bigger ambitions for a while. In May, it announced its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-jupiter-unified-markets-plan">giant unified markets</a> initiative which promised to bring all kinds of assets onchain and index them with Jupiter. But for all the talk of GUM, most Solana blockspace is still being chewed up by memecoins, so Jupiter took a majority stake in Moonshot.



Moonshot is a memecoin app that is easy for normies to use. It caught a considerable boost when the TRUMP memecoin’s website directed users to Moonshot, which rocketed the app to a stint at #1 on the App Store’s finance charts. It’s unclear whether the Trump team cut some sort of deal with Moonshot. A source at Jupiter also declined to comment on the terms of the Moonshot deal.



By acquiring most of Moonshot, which is focused on unsophisticated users, Jupiter now benefits from experienced and inexperienced memecoin traders alike. It also now collects fees on all that trading: In Istanbul, Jupiter <a href="https://x.com/SolanaFloor/status/1883184239396733027">announced</a> that it would begin collecting a 0.1% fee on its default swap feature, which had previously been free. Half of these fees will <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/value-accrual-matters-for-tokens">go toward buybacks</a> of the platform’s JUP token, which briefly surged in price. Moonshot also collects trading fees.



Plus, with Moonshot’s central role in the TRUMP memecoin launch, Jupiter may be getting not just a stake in an app but something much more important in these windfall days for crypto — a connection to President Trump.



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Jupiter takes majority stake in Trump-favored memecoin app

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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It seems Colombia has narrowly avoided a trade war with the US.&nbsp;



The White House last night announced that Colombia had agreed to terms related to accepting newly deported immigrants. As such, Trump has revoked his 25% tariff threat.&nbsp;



It’s clear, though, that tariffs have emerged as one of Trump’s first and favorite tools when it comes to advancing his geopolitical agenda.&nbsp;



While we have yet to see any increases on Canadian, Mexican or Chinese tariffs, the White House has assured <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-modifies-tariff-plan">these are coming</a>. Economists are <a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/tariffs-are-coming-how-trade-dynamics-will-shape-aggregate-demand-and-inflation">busy</a> assessing what the impact on domestic prices will be, and we suspect the Fed is considering this as well.&nbsp;



We already know the Fed tends to take a “wait and see” approach when it comes to responding to tariffs and inflation that ensues. Or at least it did back in 2018.&nbsp;



Trump’s tariff threats (and, to be clear, they are just threats for now), may be rocking global markets in the immediate term. But the actual impact on prices will take longer to see.&nbsp;



The two options for the central bank are:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Raise interest rates. </li>



<li>Take a so-called “see through” policy approach, where FOMC members ride out the (hopefully) temporary higher prices without raising rates. </li>
</ol>



We’re betting they go with option two, but we’ll be curious to see how Fed Chair Jerome Powell responds to any tariff-related questions during Wednesday’s press conference. More on that later this week.



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White House walks back Colombia tariffs 

Ben Strack

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Bitcoin’s price dipped below six figures for the first time in a week. Sounds like a good chance to check in.



Hours after dropping below $98,000, BTC rebounded to ~$102,000 Monday morning. The asset was trading around $99,400 at 2 pm ET.



Price fluctuates, we know. But identifying the factors at play can go a long way in helping new and recurring investors gain a better understanding of this growing asset class.



Ledn CIO John Glover acknowledged on Friday that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-vs-biden-crypto-orders">President Donald Trump’s executive order</a> was enough to keep BTC from selling off last week after achieving an all-time high near $109,000. But he argued there are plenty of market participants looking to take profit — or swap their BTC for other assets that’ve underperformed since Trump’s election win.&nbsp;



Another factor to consider is the strong correlation between bitcoin and equities, which Bitfinex analysts wrote “remains one of the most reliable market dynamics.”&nbsp;



They explained the 30-day rolling Pearson correlation between BTC, the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq reached 0.7 — “highlighting a trend that isnʼt just coincidental but indicative of how bitcoin is increasingly treated like a risk-on major asset class.”&nbsp;



Thus, the Bitfinex analysts note, BTC “reacted with caution” after last week’s Bank of Japan rate hike and sharply fell due to “jitters” stemming from Chinaʼs ability to produce <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinese-ai-startup-deepseek-overtakes-chatgpt-apple-app-store-2025-01-27/">cheaper AI models</a> through startup DeepSeek. Bitcoin options implied volatility declined 13% over the course of last week, they added, “suggesting traders are not expecting to see elevated price action.”



Still, you’ve read here about the bullish signals. The latest crypto executive order and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hester-peirce-reveals-sab-121-rescission">the end of SAB 121</a>, sure — but also ongoing institutional investment into bitcoin ETFs, companies buying BTC, etc.&nbsp;&nbsp;



On those two points, the US spot BTC products nearly reached the $40 billion net inflow milestone last week after just over <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-bitcoin-etf-approval">one year on the market</a>.



MicroStrategy continues its big bitcoin purchases (scroll a bit for more on that) and more companies (like Critical Metals Corp., with a <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/01/21/3012798/0/en/Critical-Metals-Corp-Announces-Commencement-of-Bitcoin-Treasury-Strategy-and-Related-Financing-to-Acquire-Up-to-500-million-of-BTC.html">plan</a> to buy $500 million of BTC) mull, and execute, similar acquisitions. &nbsp;



Blockworks’ David Canellis <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-nears-800-day">pointed out</a> that today marks day 799 of a bull market that — if history repeats — could last about 1,000 days.



While <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-healthy-correction-pre-thanksgiving">corrections are normal</a> within bull markets, Two Prime Digital Assets has observed more sophisticated market participants pulling volatility out of the market through long-term investing behavior and derivatives strategies — going as far to coin a term: “The Silent Put.”



“In short, a new cadre of bidders, including governments and corporate balance sheets, are willing to buy the dip without getting shaken out,” the firm wrote on X.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">It would be foolish to say bitcoin can’t suffer big drawdowns anymore, as the 24/7 open market remains quite wild, but it is growing tamer by the day. Market participants that can adjust to the new reality stand to benefit from this. END🧵&mdash; Two Prime Digital Assets (@two_prime) <a href="https://twitter.com/two_prime/status/1881804323606483422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Glover said in a Friday statement he’s still looking for BTC to trade towards $126,000 over the next two months. That could be a near-term top as “those looking to lock in profits battling with those bulls that are late to the party,” he added.



When I followed up with Glover Monday after the latest correction, he said his thoughts haven’t changed.



He told me he’s expecting “lots of directionless volatility” as we hear from various levels of government (and the central bank) as to how immediate (or not) Trump’s promises may be implemented.



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A market check-in after the latest BTC dip

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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When crypto projects make big announcements using words like “buyback,” “burn,” or “revenue sharing,” that’s usually taken to mean there are bullish investing tailwinds at play.



But I have questions. How much does an annualized 10% buyback yield actually matter when these tokens can plummet 20% in a day?



Does value accrual matter because it is valuable for reasons of fundamental analysis (i.e. cash flows), or merely for narrative optics?&nbsp;



Over the weekend, Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter announced a significant JUP buyback program with 50% of fee revenues.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf_4tsr4zyW0OIP6A97XElGwSCz2SY1JAv4_j0B1x848V5lXNkjh4633xRWc6DC0n_UG5_DOh7wjDsyXh9ZeG6oXQs7uU42ymLxhh_y9n-9g37-oj2wdCJhOvgis3w8Eir4DUsyIA?key=-CDM7sPbxiTlUu9I9v5P6XQq" alt=""/></figure>



Based on estimates by Blockworks Research analyst Carlos Gonzalez, that translates to about $750 million in annualized JUP buybacks, or about a significant 40% of JUP’s circulating supply in a year.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdplw02vMpSaBOU0P0POet9MOc4FNpp3Xw-YxLbQxHfT4ilafp5dMIB2vtvrsBRHQXXvSBiaZnarzkjOeMZfgqnrzmuSS81n4CQdoABpbDgoLUifLfgfcoLWg9dGSbbDO6qlfD74w?key=-CDM7sPbxiTlUu9I9v5P6XQq" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://x.com/0xcarlosg/status/1883902757905510805">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



That’s a pretty impressive annualized buyback yield of about 42%.&nbsp;



But what does 42% matter when token prices can tank 90% in a week?



Well, it’s not a flash in the pan solution, but it helps to sustain against selling pressure. Carlos pointed to <a href="https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1882505809063743582">Raydium’s</a> successful experiment with buybacks: “Raydium has accumulated 20% of RAY&#8217;s supply since the start of their buyback program. In terms of market structure, it adds buying pressure to the token and RAY has outperformed most of Solana DeFi. Fundamentals matter but of course you could also find examples to argue that buybacks aren&#8217;t that bullish. For instance, Maker.”



Virtuals, the leading AI agent launchpad on Base (now expanding to Solana), also <a href="https://x.com/virtuals_io/status/1879474894007927189">committed</a> two weeks ago to an estimated $40 million in buybacks and burns for 10k+ agent tokens over a 30-day TWAP.&nbsp;



Since the buybacks were announced on Jan. 15, the five largest agent token buybacks <a href="https://dune.com/queries/4498300/7524177">by far</a> are GAME, CONVO, AIXBT, SEKOIA and MISATO, all of which have given up all their gains as of yesterday’s market crash.



Over the last year, many blue-chip DeFi protocols with actual product-market fit have also sought to return revenues to token holders.



Compound, for instance, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/compound-considers-fee-switch-governance-attacker">proposed</a> in August a fee switch to allocate 30% of its reserves to COMP stakers.



Marc Zeller of Aave proposed last July a “Buy &amp; Distribute” proposal to buy back AAVE on the open market with “net excess revenue of the protocol.”



Then there’s Uniswap, which <a href="https://gov.uniswap.org/t/temperature-check-activate-uniswap-protocol-governance/22936">planned</a> to implement a UNI fee switch for stakers, but quickly abandoned the proposal after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/uniswap-responds-to-sec-wells-notice">receiving</a> an SEC Wells notice two months later (Uniswap is again <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-uniswap-layer-2">attempting</a> some form of value accrual on its upcoming Unichain).



Major L2s like <a href="https://www.tally.xyz/gov/arbitrum/proposal/52793687237294107439411688810483120161857085958258363826553939061522164665920">Arbitrum</a>, <a href="https://governance.starknet.io/voting-proposals/5">Starknet</a> and <a href="https://forum.gnosis.io/t/gip-100-should-gnosis-dao-conduct-a-large-scale-buyback-program/8556/1">Gnosis</a> have floated proposals last year to return value to token holders who stake their tokens.



Starknet voted last September to enable Starknet staking (<a href="https://www.starknet.io/staking/">12.94%</a> APY) and Gnosis passed a proposal in June to spend $30 million of the DAO’s treasury to buy back liquid GNO over a six-month period.



As far as I can tell, out of all the above-mentioned value accrual proposals, only Starknet and Gnosis have actually implemented their value accretive mechanisms.



Yet from the time these value accrual mechanisms were put in place, GNO has seen a 46% decline, while STRK has stayed flat.



So what are the right mental models to think about value accrual mechanisms? They’re not a magic bullet. But they’re a key ingredient in the recipe of getting a successful token launch right.



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Why value accrual matters for tokens

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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The truth is in the data. That’s kind of our motto if you ask me. And the data around the Trump coin is very telling.



Last week, Chainalysis released some data on the Trump coin launch, breaking down who owns it and where they’ve come from. The most obvious datapoint is that the majority of holders have less than $100 worth, suggesting that it’s heavily owned by retail.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc_hNe9vtu-4rcAOzZ7oP9lYdYVP68VVLCPBPwTqi9jXFomWjmQWnTUswuiX2WRlAxB2WJfHMJSW1_5g38awr5UVK204VXWRQnAdl0nmJN2V1MPMs_7FKb5mruLSpHL9WDlXWBbfA?key=ljKwsRqERWGreFpSbIYVBK8D" alt=""/></figure>



Source: Chainalysis



According to Chainalysis, a survey of the wallet age shows that a lot of these retail buyers are new to crypto. In the chart below, you can see that the majority have just opened the wallets, compared to the 16% of holders who’ve had the wallet for at least a year. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXexypE4ZqicmCK0mK9Q3iyh4wK-FzNkOJF0AovdYlesWcv9bWkRfPvwSo5phNN6nS1noEQ2xvb1ApYPEoUTQ7rZmgagewttGF-l5MXn0fFUxsgLOZzGS69zZcZGOQ9bH14vyPEE?key=ljKwsRqERWGreFpSbIYVBK8D" width="624" height="385">



But the real question, as posed by Dragonfly’s Rob Hadick, is are these new wallet holders going to actually become active participants in the overall ecosystem?



“A lot of people took [the Chainalysis] report to suggest that the TRUMP token was a mass onboarding event, primarily because 50% of TRUMP/MELANIA token holder wallets were net new to SOL altcoins,” he said.&nbsp;



“But that continues to make the same wallet/user fallacies and misses the distinction between interest in TRUMP vs onchain users that are value additive and contribute capital to the broader ecosystem.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">A lot of people took yesterday&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/chainalysis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@chainalysis</a> report to suggest that the TRUMP token was a mass onboarding event, primarily because 50% of TRUMP/MELANIA token holder wallets were net new to SOL altcoins, but that continues to make the same wallet/user fallacies and misses the… <a href="https://t.co/vbghaMW8Qa">pic.twitter.com/vbghaMW8Qa</a>&mdash; Rob Hadick ＞|＜ (@HadickM) <a href="https://twitter.com/HadickM/status/1882858357998191025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The caveat here, he added, is that people outside of crypto have been asking about the space. And, personally, I can attest to that as well. But I think it’s fair to say that attention and action are two very different things, and so far we’re not seeing this lead to mass adoption.&nbsp;



Honestly, perhaps that’s too much to ask. For now, we may have to settle with piquing people’s interest. Adoption can come with use cases.&nbsp;



Or so I hope.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Why the TRUMP launch wasn’t a ‘mass onboarding event’

David Canellis

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Today marks day 799 of the bitcoin bull market.&nbsp;



That’s about 26 and a half months of positive price action. A little more than two years. Cheers to that!



It’s tough to say exactly when bull markets start and end in crypto. Old-world <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#:~:text=One%20definition%20of%20a%20bear,%2Daverse%20than%20risk%2Dseeking.">definitions</a> — based on 20% retracements from local highs and so on — have no power here.&nbsp;



Drawdowns of that size just <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-bull-market-drawdowns">happen way too often</a> on the way up. Still, by my very rough estimates, the past three bitcoin bull markets going back to 2011 have lasted, on average, somewhere in the region of 1,000 days.



So, usually it goes that it takes less than three years for bitcoin to go from the bottom of the previous bear market, through to cycle peaks, down to a crash that in retrospect clearly put an end to any upward trajectory.



The good news: Bitcoin is looking super healthy this cycle when mapped to the previous three. Even after this correction.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1383" height="997" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png" alt="" class="wp-image-96665" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=1383 1383w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=357 357w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=362 362w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=304 304w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXeAlxxmkKXjDgxmhD4dijsqxEe6HRle_Nx-aoKg8Da_YsSavsr_MQ7p1jetuQ4S0IHfGL67GgrWRmiQ3ROeV-MbBFjfyYuCEy-PbWhGBIrWKJ1KeX5ex9c90RbSNiuRA85_xjDCTA.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1383px) 100vw, 1383px" /></figure>



Bitcoin’s performance during this bull market — which started at the end of 2022 — to date is shown on the chart above in log view. It’s done 6.6x so far, going from $15,474 to $99,000 as of this morning.



Notice how, for most of the cycle, BTC has tracked ahead or just below the brown line, which plots its performance during the prior bull cycle between 2018 and 2022.



BTC diverged below around 50 days ago, at the start of December. But that’s okay: We already know bitcoin returns are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-cycle-returns">diminishing every cycle</a>.&nbsp;



Its current trajectory better fits the pattern — all bull market cycles have followed a similar trajectory, it’s just less pronounced each time.



The bad news: We are no closer to a bonafide altcoin season, even after big rallies in coins such as XRP and TRUMP.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1385" height="1001" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png" alt="" class="wp-image-96664" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=1385 1385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=356 356w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=361 361w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=303 303w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD_4nXf9KcQEEkcKO0qDE_OoywwOjrrIh4B3FBo986XZ4s21Z426yp0Zc12_9NgD8novp0qKNANjB1RN4fQEtmzjtdbrOWydFeqoTnX0EAUUUpsOsf57fJcMiTj6miN6l3Ivf9aS5llT.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1385px) 100vw, 1385px" /></figure>



This one charts the market cap growth of bitcoin (in orange) and the altcoin market (purple) for this bull market. As you can see, altcoins are suffering deeper losses but have still done 4.4x.



The blue columns in the back show the relative performance of bitcoin to altcoins — bitcoin is now more than 210% ahead of altcoins, the largest distance of the cycle. That’s too much for any <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/waiting-for-altcoin-season">real altcoin season</a>.



Like bull and bear markets, “altcoin season” has no formal definition. It’s more of a vibe.&nbsp;



Empire has done its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/waiting-for-altcoin-season">best to quantify it</a>: Altcoin seasons potentially begin when the market cap growth of the altcoin market, over the bull market to date, exceeds that of bitcoin’s.



An altcoin season is only confirmed when altcoins have outpaced bitcoin for 90 consecutive days or more.&nbsp;



Ninety days sounds like a lot, but backtesting with those conditions provides three distinct altcoin seasons throughout crypto’s history:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>the early innings of the Ethereum ICO era between mid-2016 and early 2018,</li>



<li>the first half of 2019 when many altcoins outperformed bitcoin, and&nbsp;</li>



<li>most of 2020’s DeFi Summer through to crypto’s all-time high in November 2021.</li>
</ul>



Perhaps the next altcoin season will look a lot different. For now, it’s still all about bitcoin.



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Bitcoin bull market nears 800th day, altcoin season still far away

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Crypto’s new viral app isn’t very new at all.



Solana-based social project Clout saw its downloads take off after launching an iPhone app that lets users buy tokenized versions of social media profiles. This is very similar to the premise behind the viral 2023 app friend.tech, which was itself a rehashing of BitClout, a Crypto Twitter tokenization app that went viral in 2021. Friend.tech’s founding team <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/frienddottech-relinquishes-platform-control">already stepped away</a> from the platform, while BitClout’s founder was just <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-doj-charge-bitclout-creator-crypto-fraud-social-media">charged with fraud</a> by the DOJ and the SEC.



Clout hasn’t leaned away from its forefathers. The project posted a meme today riffing on Justin Timberlake’s famous line as Sean Parker in The Social Network: “Drop the ‘Bit.’ Just ‘Clout.’ It’s cleaner.”



“Integrity and healthy tokenomics!” was Clout founder Ben Pasternak’s reply when I asked him what sets his app apart.



At the time of writing, Clout was #34 on the App Store’s finance chart. The app is so congested that I haven’t been able to land a transaction all day. And Clout isn’t the only so-called SocialFi app grabbing Solana users’ attention.



Tribe.run — which is still in invite-only mode — has also seen some momentum for a tokenized X profile app that creates token-gated group chats called tribes. I managed to snag an invite and have been enjoying the app, which features a nostalgic Windows 98-esque design. Tribe comes with an airdrop feature built in where I was able to send some of my token to my group chat members. This feature is enabled by Solana <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-zk-compression-solana-data-storage">zero-knowledge compression</a>.



When I asked Tribe founder Bill Zheng why he thinks his app can succeed where friend.tech, for instance, failed, he said the former app had a “fundamental flaw” in that creators had no incentive to stay engaged. Tribe employs a subscription model where tribe members must pay a certain amount of SOL to stay in the group chat — giving the tribe creators a reason to stick around.



Outside of Solana, Kaito AI has seen success with its Yaps platform that doles out points for users who are active — or who yap a lot, in internet parlance — on Crypto Twitter.&nbsp;



SocialFi’s resilience underscores the resilience of Elon Musk’s social media platform. X remains the center of the online crypto world, and until that changes, crypto social apps will keep testing out new ways to monetize Crypto Twitter.



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SocialFi makes its return on Solana

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce — two days after being named leader of a new <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">crypto task force</a> — revealed SAB 121 would be no more.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Bye, bye SAB 121! It&#39;s not been fun: <a href="https://t.co/cIwUc0isUE">https://t.co/cIwUc0isUE</a> | Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 122&mdash; Hester Peirce (@HesterPeirce) <a href="https://twitter.com/HesterPeirce/status/1882562977985114185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Some context: A Staff Accounting Bulletin, or SAB, represents interpretations and policies followed by SEC divisions in administering federal securities laws-related <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-staff-call-for-crypto-entities-to-show-liability-on-balance-sheet">disclosure requirements</a>.



The SEC published SAB 121 in March 2022. It notably said that an entity “should present a liability on its balance sheet to reflect its obligation to safeguard the crypto-assets held for its platform users.”



Why does the crypto industry <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-gensler-sec-overturn-sab-121">care so much</a> about the agency <a href="https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/staff-guidance/staff-accounting-bulletins/staff-accounting-bulletin-122">rescinding</a> this?&nbsp;



Cantor Fitzgerald Howard Lutnick explained the issue pretty well in a <a href="https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1831080474124681316?s=46">video</a> he posted to X in September — a couple months before <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-commerce-dept-leader">Trump nominated him</a> to lead the Commerce department.



There’s a misunderstanding that TradFi players don’t want to transact in bitcoin, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-tradfi-btc-transacting">Lutnick claimed</a>. He added that for banks to custody a client’s bitcoin, “they would have to set aside their own money equal to that amount in sort of like a jail.”



Indeed, financial organizations <a href="https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAB-121-Joint-Trades.pdf">told</a> SEC Chair Gary Gensler that the bulletin “has curbed the ability of the associations’ members to develop and bring to market at scale certain digital asset products and services.”



The upshot? As VanEck research execs <a href="https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025/">wrote</a> in a December post detailing 2025 crypto predictions, this repeal “will pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot crypto, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.”



Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer argued in a Friday note that this SAB 121 rescission “represents an even more meaningful game-changer for bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem” than a potential strategic bitcoin reserve does.



While SAB 121 was published in 2022, it wasn’t until last year that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-passes-resolution-to-overturn-sab121">Congress sent a bill</a> overturning the guidance to Joe Biden’s desk. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/biden-backing-gary-gensler-resolution">He vetoed it</a>.



Ava Labs deputy general counsel Wee Ming Choon told me last month that rescinding SAB 121 would be an act of “good will” that a new agency administration could take quickly. It seems that take was correct.&nbsp;



Rest up this weekend, as another wave of developments is sure to come.



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Why SAB 121’s end is a big deal

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



President Trump yesterday issued his first crypto <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/strengthening-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/">executive order</a>.&nbsp;



The news and ensuing chaos on Crypto Twitter reminded me of Biden’s <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/03/14/2022-05471/ensuring-responsible-development-of-digital-assets">crypto executive order</a>, published in March 2022.&nbsp;



Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Here’s what Trump’s report says, and how it differs from Biden’s plans:&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On CBDCs</h2>



Trump’s order prohibits federal agencies from establishing, issuing or promoting central bank digital currencies. It calls for any ongoing projects creating a CBDC to be “immediately terminated.”&nbsp;



CBDCs “threaten the stability of the financial system, individual privacy and the sovereignty of the United States,” Trump’s order reads.&nbsp;



Biden was less resolute on the topic. His administration struck a bit of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bidens-crypto-executive-order-may-be-watershed-moment-despite-lack-of-specifics">middle ground</a>, saying they saw “merit” to a US CBDC but also acknowledged “potential risks and downsides to consider.” In the end, Biden directed agencies to create a report on the future of money and payment systems.&nbsp;



We eventually got this <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Future-of-Money-and-Payments.pdf">report</a>, which, like Biden’s executive order, said little definitively. The Treasury recommended “advancing” work on a CBDC and “prioritizing” improvements to cross-border payments. Spoiler alert, a CBDC was never developed.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On “protection”</h2>



When it comes to security, Biden and Trump hold very different views on how to approach digital assets.&nbsp;



Biden’s order focused on protecting consumers from the risks associated with investing and engaging with crypto. He also highlighted national security concerns, calling digital assets a threat to financial stability and a tool ripe for abuse from illicit actors.&nbsp;



Trump’s EO also includes the term “protection,” but his administration is concerned with maintaining US dollar dominance and shielding citizens from the dangers of CBDCs.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Working Group</h2>



Trump’s order established a Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, to be led by <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">“crypto czar” David Sacks</a>.&nbsp;



Included in this group are the chairs of the CFTC and SEC, attorney general and secretaries of the Treasury and Homeland Security, among other cabinet members.&nbsp;



Trump’s Working Group “shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-gov-unloading-bitcoin-process">digital asset stockpile</a> and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the federal government through its law enforcement efforts.”&nbsp;



As one source on the Hill told me last night, this is a long way of saying the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">strategic bitcoin reserve</a> is going to live in bureaucratic purgatory for a long time, maybe forever.”&nbsp;



Biden did not create any such working group, or any crypto-specific advisory council. But he did task the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to create a report outlining the various risks of digital assets.&nbsp;



This report noted that crypto can pose a threat to financial stability, and it recommended Congress pass legislation designating rulemaking authority to appropriate agencies (something like a market structure bill, for example.)



Spoiler: This, too, has lived in political limbo for years.&nbsp;



Only time will tell if this latest crypto executive order inspires more progress than Biden’s.&nbsp;



But it’s worth noting that the industry excitement around Trump’s EO bodes well. Never underestimate what some well-funded lobbyists can get done on Capitol Hill.



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Executive order deja-vu 

Founded in 2018, THORChain is an OG DeFi L1 chain that rose to fame with its innovative cross-chain swaps (THORSwap). Since then, the chain has expanded to offer lending and savings interest accounts.



As of earlier today, THORChain withdrawals from its Lending and Savers products have been officially halted. THORSwap and the underlying chain are fine.



The halted withdrawals come off the back of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/thorchain-executive-decision-restructuring">painful decision</a> by THORChain co-founder JP Thor two weeks ago to pause deposits into the Savers and Lending program for a six-to-twelve month period — a decision which was <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/this-is-unusual">overturned</a> by Thorchain validators.



The chain is sitting on about $200 million of BTC and ETH-denominated liabilities that it cannot afford to pay out, at least not without further crashing the price of its native token, RUNE.



Wait, why does RUNE enter the picture?



THORChain lending works differently to other DeFi money markets like Aave. On THORChain, lent collateral is instantly sold for its native RUNE token, which is then burned after swapping to a borrower’s desired debt asset.&nbsp;



When borrowers repay their loan, new RUNE is minted again to repurchase the borrower’s pledged collateral from the market and repay it to borrowers.



This effectively places RUNE token holders as the counterparty for each loan.



This somewhat roundabout mechanism is nice if you’re bullish RUNE. The mechanism design places RUNE at the center of the value accrual flywheel and increases its demand.&nbsp;



The key risk here, however, is that this depends on RUNE outperforming assets like BTC and ETH that it is borrowed against. Simply put, THORChain’s protocol design is long RUNE against BTC and ETH.&nbsp;



When RUNE depreciates relative to BTC and ETH, more RUNE needs to be minted at the closure of the loan than the amount of RUNE that was burned initially.



This leads us to the unwanted outcome that is happening today: inflationary (and selling) pressure on RUNE rather than the intended effect of deflationary (and buying) pressure.



RUNE’s tokenomics is also intertwined with its yield-bearing Savers product.



THORChain’s Savers uses a kind of wrapped synthetic asset (called <a href="https://docs.thorchain.org/thorchain-finance/savings">synths</a>) to allow single-sided asset exposure. Roughly, it works like this:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>A user deposits one BTC.</li>



<li>THORChain sells half the BTC for RUNE, and adds the BTC-RUNE pair to a liquidity pool.</li>



<li>The user receives synthetic BTC, which can be staked for yield (accruing from swap fees and liquidity rewards) without the risk of impermanent loss.</li>



<li>When the user chooses to withdraw, THORChain sells the previously bought RUNE to form one BTC, which is then returned to the user.</li>
</ol>



Note the similar “long RUNE, short BTC and ETH” dynamic at play here. This design protects against impermanent losses for LPs, but it also means LPs are taking a leveraged long on RUNE.&nbsp;



Thus, RUNE’s underperformance creates the same kind of downward spiral consequences for Savers, just as it did for its lending product.



The chart below shows the rate of RUNE mints far exceeding the rate of RUNE burn:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfiSVy5SBcqZOeE1vMqrXbbG1FjJcgsKCA0BupvvyTm4FhS3lIv1Qf1YookVVhveDaBqKStl1yBlBcgpVPQXyTRG8Ql7Kxu0Qsk6B_BOKxyosozcryL393shJFdiYkfsJhPs304?key=KJE5_E3vkgQFdC7wkJ4LUElg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://thorcharts.org/thorchain_lending_rune_burned">Thorcharts</a></figcaption></figure>



It’s worth reiterating that THORSwap, the original use case of THORChain, is fine. It’s still swapping about $50-60 billion in weekly trading volumes, and generated about $700k in fees over the past week.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdYVf386ptKZsftpqg5BzGSR8QYXK_XhDgIjbdz0l55Oe50_z4ThDzMdSMI6WyFg1yqH6oSDBQd8CtZqdmVcwrPXkhKpSs8_Lfm2rZXAdYo86jIIXIn76BQLoAam0tbbp_XToT2xA?key=KJE5_E3vkgQFdC7wkJ4LUElg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://thorcharts.org/thorchain_swap_fees_by_chain">Thorcharts</a></figcaption></figure>



The RUNE token, however, is down 44% on the week, which is not fine. It’s the asset that needs to be sold to repay borrowers wanting to close their loans, or savers wanting to withdraw, but doing so would accelerate the crash of RUNE’s price, which in turn leads to deeper insolvency.



Osmosis co-founder Sunny Aggarwal said of the THORChain debacle: “The situation unfolding with THORChain is eerily similar to what happened with Terra/Luna implosion in 2022, where the protocol&#8217;s solvency was too heavily dependent on the price performance of the native token.”



Next steps? THORChain’s co-founder suggests using protocol revenue and incentives from its sister company Rujira (previously Kujira)&nbsp; to make lenders whole over a 2-3 month timeframe while everything is on pause mode.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">If <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24RUNE&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$RUNE</a> hits $2.50 I will be recommending to every node I delegate with to Pause Lending via Node Mimir. 1) Pause lending 2) Tokenise positions on App Layer asap (with maybe even <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24RUJI&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$RUJI</a> incentives) 3) 10% System Income into payback fund to accumulate RUNE to fund payouts 4)…&mdash; JP.THOR | ACEL (@jpthor) <a href="https://twitter.com/jpthor/status/1882573631710200273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“It&#8217;s uncertain whether lenders can be fully compensated. Some have suggested that the shortfall could be covered by protocol fees collected over time. But this overlooks an important point: the bulk of THORChain&#8217;s liquidity comes from its lending and savers platform, ThorFi. So it doesn&#8217;t make sense to consider THORChain and ThorFi as separate entities,” Aggarwal told Blockworks.



For a deeper dive on the mechanics leading to THORChain’s insolvency, see Blockworks Research’s <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/flashnotes/thor-fi-s-unlimited-liability">report</a> by analyst Luke Leasure from last week.



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THORChain halts withdrawals amid $200M insolvency

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“We’re just trying to be the onchain Apple.”



Now that’s a banger of a quote.&nbsp;



James Zhang, founder of Jambo, said it to Empire host Santiago Santos in a <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/ca6f038c-d367-11ef-b4c0-a740d0562de2">bonus Empire episode last week</a>.&nbsp;



Jambo, for those of you who may not be aware, is an onchain mobile network. We’ll get more into it in a bit, but Zhang’s points about really looking to give folks access to the digital economy stood out to me.&nbsp;



Right now, Jambo’s biggest user base is in Latin America. Zhang originally thought the biggest user base would perhaps be Africa, but that hasn’t been the case…yet.&nbsp;



As Santos noted, “the next JPMorgan doesn’t look like JPMorgan. It looks like an MVNO with fintech services layered on top.”



People should be able to digitally access all the integrations without ever having to go into, say, a bank branch.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



For Jambo, that means not only reaching a user base, but ensuring those users are as loyal as I am to Apple. And that’s where crypto comes in.&nbsp;



And now you know.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TWiyUIQV0Bs?si=DfTuS735i6sAgLoF" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>



Check out the bonus Jambo episode of Empire above



I had a chance to chat with Zhang earlier this week, and I was curious how he’d classify Jambo. Is it a DePIN? Is it more? 



What can I say, I’m paid to be nosey.&nbsp;



First let’s start with the basics. Jambo’s been around for a while, having last raised capital from a number of big VCs back in 2022. The round was led by both Pantera and Paradigm, if you want to be specific.&nbsp;



Zhang’s the first one to admit that it was a totally different market when they last raised compared to now, and the team’s been hustling. Even back in 2022, the reception for Jambo was “great,” Zhang noted. There’s an appetite to disrupt the Latin American and African phone markets with a device that is “censorship resistant.”



But after the 2022 raise, Jambo and Zhang had to go into “cockroach mode” to survive the bear. And now, well, we’re here, on the other side.



Zhang wouldn’t turn down the opportunity to raise again, he admitted, especially because he finds this market trickier than a bear market.&nbsp;



“The reason is because in the bear market, we had already raised funding. We had already built our team, and [then] it was just shipping product. And honestly, there weren&#8217;t as many … you could say distractions, and … macro is distractions. But when one memecoin gets launched and sucks 90% of liquidity, it&#8217;s a little tough on the rest of the market or any narrative, so for us, we just honestly want to see more stability going into a token launch,” he told me.



Zhang said that they’ve never specifically branded as a DePIN though Jambo clearly has elements of that, given that it offers both hardware and networks.



“If you take our entire network together, it becomes one of the largest DePIN networks that users can tap into,” he said.&nbsp;



He’d prefer if you think of them as a consumer-facing product, given that it’s their specialty. Outside of the hardware offerings, they also launched a satellite program <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/01/22/3013262/0/en/Jambo-launches-satellite-on-Solana-to-connect-global-network-of-JamboPhones.html">earlier this week</a> to “connect all 700,000-plus devices,” he said.



Maybe Zhang’s really not that far off when he says he wants to be the onchain Apple.



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Why Jambo could be ‘the onchain Apple’

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At face value, President Trump is well on his way to giving crypto what it wants.&nbsp;



A US government strategic crypto reserve. Or maybe it’s a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/23/trump-signs-executive-order-on-crypto-digital-asset-stockpile.html">stockpile</a>. Is there a difference?



Anyone interested in wading into that debate is well <a href="https://x.com/search?q=stockpile%20crypto&amp;src=typed_query">covered</a> on X and so on.&nbsp;



Same goes for those keen to moralize the implications of US government agencies accumulating coins other than bitcoin — perhaps even ones backed by funds and entities controlled by appointed officials like venture capitalist <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">David Sacks</a>.



I’m taking a different path. Let’s put aside the US strategic stockpile. It doesn’t exist, yet.



What does verifiably exist onchain is the growing crypto portfolio of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/world-liberty-financial-kyc-starts">World Liberty Fi</a>, the DeFi project endorsed by the Trump family.&nbsp;



And because this is crypto — and it&#8217;s on Ethereum — we know exactly what it’s doing at all times, and whether it’s underwater or not.



I touched on this <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-strategic-crypto-reserve">earlier this week</a>, but World Liberty Fi has bought more crypto since Trump’s inauguration on Monday.&nbsp;



The chart below treats World Liberty Fi’s stockpile as a fund. Its performance is plotted by the blue line.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdU2hFDWlJ_IL64ZoIYeHIDpjpV6MviJskU6hom-nlRgGkxWvfOIOelF4mTSZcOShafjztA38OAuQuLPugSyGrz02X21vI8GVJLVKsUJvnC340tzO3hnX6ixGDU89MnjkddXOKB?key=r7UJwDSxvmuP7JeyAN-Z78QO" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The crypto World Liberty Fi used to buy more coins came from its $300-million token <a href="https://dune.com/seoul/wlfi">sale</a>. It currently holds a combined ~$53 million in USDT and USDT.</figcaption></figure>



When the blue line goes into the red, World Liberty Fi’s accumulated portfolio is underwater. It’s otherwise ahead on its purchased crypto to date when it&#8217;s in the green area.&nbsp;



The portfolio is ahead by 4.3%, as of this morning, although there would be additional small gains related to liquid ETH staking which were not included in the analysis.



Most recently, World Liberty Fi spent $22.5 million on Thursday, on a mixture of ETH, TRX and wrapped BTC. That’s on top of the $2.65 million in TRX bought on Tuesday.



Those purchases brought World Liberty Fi total spend to $245.3 million across six different coins since it began at the end of November: the three above as well as LINK, ONDO, AAVE and ENA, a set which should integrate with the platform in some capacity in the future.



As you can see, the portfolio, now worth nearly $259 million, has spent about half the time ahead. That makes sense, considering it’s regularly accumulating crypto (although with no real stated goal for what it will be for as yet, other than for strategic purposes).



Sure, handwringing about how all this could go wrong is probably justified. Especially if World Liberty Fi’s portfolio indeed turns out to be Trump’s strategic crypto reserve.



It’s worth appreciating, however, that the very blockchain rails on which the stockpile exists make those concerns much easier to navigate. We can see what it’s doing. We can see when it buys, sells, stakes or otherwise transfers any of the coins it holds. And they will be forever trackable, at least within the current capabilities of analytics software.



The tools for everything to go right are there. We’ll just need to actually use them to make sure that it does.



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World Liberty Fi’s $259M crypto stockpile is off to a good start

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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Yesterday, Liam Heeger announced that he had departed Jump Crypto, where he was working on Solana’s Firedancer client, to found a company named Unto Labs that will build a high-performance layer-1 blockchain. Jump wasn’t happy with this news.



The firm filed a lawsuit against Heeger on Tuesday alleging that the former employee had violated a non-compete agreement by founding Unto. According to the lawsuit, Heeger, who was a lead software engineer for Firedancer, broke his non-compete partly by raising venture capital funds for Unto at the Solana Breakpoint conference while he was still employed by Jump.



Unto is building a “next generation layer-1 blockchain,” Heeger wrote on X. The post thread also notes Unto will not be built to run Solana like Firedancer but will be “re-imagining” blockchain architecture. The company is hiring two engineers, according to its job board.&nbsp;



“Liam and Unto strongly deny [Jump’s] allegations and are confident in the integrity of our business practices,” a spokesperson for Unto said in an emailed statement.&nbsp;



The Solana Foundation contracted Jump to write a high-performance Solana client from scratch in 2022. Heeger, who goes by CantalopePeel on GitHub and X, joined Jump to work on Firedancer in early 2023. As part of joining the company, he signed a non-compete agreement and agreed not to use Jump’s proprietary information to benefit anyone other than Jump, the suit says.



In September 2024, Jump sent Heeger — along with its head of R&amp;D Kevin Bowers — to the Solana Breakpoint conference to give an update on Firedancer’s progress. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-firedancer-testnet">Jump announced</a> that Firedancer was live in non-voting mode, and a limited version of the client called Frankendancer was fully live.&nbsp;



Jump now alleges that Heeger wasn’t just at Breakpoint to speak about Firedancer — he was also meeting with VCs to raise funds for a new blockchain. According to the suit, Heeger ultimately raised $3 million at a $50 million valuation for Unto, and his investors included the crypto-native VC firm Framework Ventures. Framework did not return a request for comment.



After Breakpoint, the suit says Heeger’s colleagues noticed he was texting more than normal, he took a private call in a conference room, and he seemed stressed and distracted from work. He then resigned from Jump in November, saying that he was not enjoying his work anymore. Jump says it was concerned about the “cryptic” reasoning for leaving the company, and it performed a wellness check on Heeger.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The suit says that a month later, Heeger told an ex-colleague he was founding Unto. He also allegedly told a former Jump supervisor that because he had moved from Illinois to California after leaving Jump, he no longer had to comply with his non-compete agreement.&nbsp;



In Jump’s view, by launching a high-performance blockchain, Heeger is now competing with Firedancer — and in doing so, he must be using proprietary information he gained while at Jump.



The lawsuit illustrates a tension between the ethos of the open-source crypto world and the reality of doing business with institutions. Solana fans will undoubtedly be disappointed to see a Firedancer-related lawsuit before a full version of the client.



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Jump sues former Firedancer Solana client engineer

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While CME Group doesn’t yet have concrete plans to launch XRP and/or SOL futures contracts, the company is certainly thinking about it.



The derivatives exchange launched bitcoin futures contracts in December 2017. It followed up with ether futures in early 2021. Fast forward to yesterday, when screenshots floated around social media signaling that XRP and SOL futures would come next month.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdg0aGmyyezCGvlIq5hNT9-VTV7yHOYPMd6JkZxVkMlsK9TBmTmeL6f--bq-dk5nK2mG6ELdpiPRGcLVPxPrrx51coW1gtvXSR9FuOPRB99V5PUOtvhWGnJtmPcgeuEiv8uVDGQOw?key=xSQi6_2RlBakj4huYPfszKO3" alt=""/></figure>



“A beta page from our website was released in error earlier today,” a CME spokesperson told me Wednesday. “Many mock-ups are included in that test environment, and no decisions have been made regarding XRP or SOL futures contracts.”&nbsp;



This glimpse the company inadvertently gave into possible product plans comes as crypto ETF filings have accelerated in recent weeks. Among them are proposed spot XRP and SOL funds.&nbsp;



A number of observers <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-spot-crypto-etf-approvals-outlook">have said</a> spot crypto ETF approvals by the SEC — outside of BTC and ETH — could take a while given the precedent of the regulator wanting to first see a regulated futures market. There’s also the fact that the SEC has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-mango-markets-sol">named SOL a security</a> and is moving forward <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-advances-ripple-appeal">with an appeal</a> in its case against Ripple.&nbsp;



Remember, too, that it was years after bitcoin and ether futures existed that ETFs holding those futures contracts came to market. Those notably preceded spot funds investing in those assets directly.



To that point, VolatilityShares <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1884021/000121390024113152/ea0225648-01_485apos.htm">filed</a> for a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-etf-filing-futures">solana futures ETF</a> in December and ProShares followed that up with a similar <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174610/000168386325000201/f40466d1.htm">filing</a> last week.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEW: ProShares just filed for a Solana Futures ETF. VolatilityShares also filed for one of these back in December. Interesting because there arent CME futures yet and i&#39;m not sure if the Coinbase SOL futures are large and liquid enough? <a href="https://t.co/7dUPIQw37z">pic.twitter.com/7dUPIQw37z</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1880383979238662449?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 17, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Then there are Teucrium <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418925000233/teucriumxrpetfs.htm">planned products</a> that would invest in XRP futures. These filings all appear to be bets that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">a revamped SEC</a> could be more open-minded to such ETFs. We can only <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-crypto-etfs-approval-outlook">wait to see about that</a>.



As we speak of altcoin-focused funds, perhaps it’s worth a quick mention that the Delaware state website shows Bitwise registered a dogecoin trust.



While a Bitwise spokesperson acknowledged the filing, the rep declined to comment further. This isn’t yet a formal product proposal to the SEC, mind you. But it’s yet another indication that we best, as <a href="https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1882231521093787691">some would say</a>, “strap in.”



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SOL, XRP futures coming? And what about a DOGE ETF?

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The US senator pushing for a national strategic bitcoin reserve just got a promotion.&nbsp;



Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican who has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">long championed</a> the crypto industry, will lead the new digital asset subcommittee under the Senate Banking Committee.&nbsp;



Lummis <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">debuted the text</a> for the Bitcoin Reserve Bill last summer at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-2024-nashville-recap">Nashville</a>. She introduced the bill late last Congress but has not yet unveiled an updated text this session.&nbsp;



The original bill sought to have the US government acquire a total of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-as-a-potential-us-reserve-asset">1 million BTC</a> — around 5% of the total supply. The bill permits sales of the asset for only one purpose: paying off the national deficit.&nbsp;



“We will be debt free because of bitcoin,” Lummis said in Nashville.&nbsp;



Now, with her own subcommittee and Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott’s ear, movement on the reserve could come a lot faster. Speculation that President Trump may <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-campaign-promises-bitcoin-reserve">create the stockpile</a> via an executive order seems to have dissipated in recent weeks.&nbsp;



But, it’s very possible we see some sort of presidential action from Trump directing the DOJ to refrain from auctioning seized bitcoin.&nbsp;



In any case, Lummis seems committed to getting the reserve off the ground in Congress, <a href="https://x.com/SenLummis/status/1882454483852255605">saying</a> on Thursday that lawmakers “need to urgently pass bipartisan legislation.”&nbsp;



We’ll be curious to see what the subcommittee selects as its first hearing topic.



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US Senate creates first-ever digital asset subcommittee 

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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A major thesis I have for 2025 is that FX will be one of the key macro assets to focus on.&nbsp;



The big reason is that FX currencies are the exhaust valve for interest rate differentials between other countries, and therefore tariff implementation since that gets directly imputed into global capital flows that are key drivers of global currencies.&nbsp;



With this belief in FX volatility being the key exhaust valve of Trump’s tariff and trade policy this year, I went ahead and interviewed one of the best macro FX traders I know: Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Bz196-fJ0IU?si=ndpDg2aOvPKgXGjk" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







Of course, nothing beats watching the full episode, but here are a few of my favorite takeaways:&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On how much capital flows drive FX currency: </h2>



“The hard thing is that the capital flow stuff kind of happens around the edges. So if you have a good capital flow story, that could be marginally biased in one direction. But if the bigger drivers like rate differentials are pointing in the other direction, it&#8217;s not going to work. So capital flows tend to be more of like an accelerant, not a directional driver.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On how emerging market currencies are mostly driven by carry trades:</h2>



“For an EM it&#8217;s usually all about the carry. So if you can sell USD and buy Brazil and it goes nowhere for a year, let&#8217;s just say you make 10% on that carry. That&#8217;s a really good carry trade. So dollar Brazil is going to go up and down. But if you have the view that dollar Brazil is going to go down, it&#8217;s kind of a free lunch. So like for two years in Mexico, it was basically a free lunch to own Mexican pesos because reshoring was good and that led to a steady and stable carry trade.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On the impact of this week’s Bank of Japan rate hike:</h2>



“They did a hike recently of 15 basis points and they did one of 20 and now the market&#8217;s expecting 25 and 22bps is priced in.



So then the question becomes this: If this hike is priced in, which it is, what are the signals from the central bank at the meeting? They could hike 15 and just say, you know, they are a little bit scared about market stability because they felt like they blew up the world in August. And because of that guidance paired with so much of the hike already being priced into markets, it could end up being a dovish outcome for the meeting.”



There are many more interesting tidbits in the interview, including a deep dive into how Trump’s tariff threats are impacting FX currencies, so I highly recommend checking it out!



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