The Theta Network is a blockchain protocol for improving the process of creating, streaming, and consuming video content online. Theta Tokens are used in the network to incentivize users to act as peers who share redundant or excess computing and bandwidth resources with other peers. In June 2021, Theta Network added NFTs, e.g. trading cards of media celebrities, to the product portfolio.

Theta Network

Boccaccio

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



One of the key things I like to track in crypto is a subjective criterion I call “where are new interesting developments and proposals taking place.” There are plenty of dashboards and analytics sites for this, the most popular being the Electric Capital site. The issue is that it still shows Polkadot as having a lot of developers. (At Blockworks we solved the noise problem with active users; maybe we can try the same for active developers.) Because of this noise, I prefer to track two simple observations:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>What is the velocity of new products launching, and how much mindshare are these products capturing?</li>



<li>Are many people getting nerdsniped into discussing the novelties and intricacies of the chain?</li>
</ul>



A related point is the caliber of people being attracted to new ecosystems.



For example, over the past few years, Solana (and Ethereum) attracted the majority of talent. Talent generally goes where:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>It can solve interesting problems or create interesting projects.</li>



<li>It can make a lot of money.</li>
</ul>



In a podcast I did <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw5K9o5b--o">with Icebergy about a year ago</a>, we discussed how crypto still wasn’t attracting talent at the levels AI was, despite offering faster exits and more money. AI was (and probably still is) more interesting to most talent and seen as more prestigious. After FTX, crypto lost a lot of credibility and has only recently started recovering as larger institutional players re-entered. Apart from FTX, crypto has also been criticized for being full of low-effort forks and limited utility products. This dynamic isn’t unique to crypto though. Many AI companies are also just building wrappers around GPT, which is as uninteresting as some projects in crypto.



Anyway, to the point: Historically, Solana has captured the majority of attention from talent and developers. Regardless of personal views, launchpads, internet capital markets (RIP), creator capital markets, TCGs and prop AMMs have been popular over the past year, drawing developers to the ecosystem. They offer opportunities to solve problems, build products, and make money.



Solana continues to attract talent. There’s still a lot of money on the chain, high velocity of that money, and constant issuance of new tokens. Developers want to capture some of that revenue by building something unique, slightly different, or just a variation with new incentives. Ethereum has had this dynamic too, and still does. Many new AMM structures were first developed on Ethereum and by Ethereum-native founders. More recently, interest has grown in prediction markets. Many who once focused on perpetual markets have shifted to writing about prediction markets as well.



Beyond this, the main point of today’s note is that Hyperliquid has been gaining increasing attention from builders and talent. In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zavyhzPZri0">recent podcast with Charlie from Felix</a>, we talked about how many of the basic elements of the L1 HyperEVM have already been built. A common criticism Charlie recognized is that most HyperEVM projects are forks or ports of existing products. This criticism is common for new chains, and it makes sense: Every new chain needs certain basic elements to function properly, such as lending markets, AMMs, bridges and so on. Still, aside from the HyperEVM, we’re also seeing growing interest in Hypercore from both talent and researchers.



This is reinforced by the large number of articles and research written on HIP-3.&nbsp; Bedlam Research has also discussed HIP-3 implementations previously, specifically discussing:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Risk tranching and delegated staking: Builders can pool HYPE from multiple holders, letting them share in fees while managing exposure through senior and junior tranches that take on different levels of slashing risk.</li>



<li>Fees and fee structure experiments: Instead of only rewarding stakers, fees can incentivize liquidity providers and takers, or be tokenized into yield streams; alternative fee schedules like charging only on winning trades are also possible.</li>



<li>New market types: HIP-3 allows deployment of markets beyond crypto, including equities, commodities, leveraged tokens, asset baskets, pair trades, event-contingent markets and even markets tied to DEX fee performance.</li>



<li>Collateral management: Since HIP-3 DEXs are siloed, collateral cannot easily move across venues; prime brokerage-style services could emerge to consolidate risk, transfer collateral, and provide margin financing across multiple DEXs.</li>
</ul>



In its HIP-4 proposal posted yesterday, Bedlam discussed how to extend builder-deployed perps into a format suited for prediction markets. It proposes Event Perpetuals as a way to address HIP-3’s limitations, since continuous oracles and capped price adjustments do not work for binary events that resolve instantly. The design represents probabilities directly on the order book, with values between 0 and 1 reflecting the likelihood of a “YES” outcome.



In practice, it operates like this:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Binary payoff, settling at either 0 or 1 once the event resolves.</li>



<li>No continuous oracle or funding, prices set only by trading.</li>



<li>Isolated 1x margining, with collateral depending on buying YES or NO.</li>



<li>Opening auction to determine the first market price before trading begins.</li>



<li>Continuous trading within bands of 0.001 to 0.999, no leverage.</li>



<li>Resolution through a single oracle update, with optional dispute window.</li>



<li>Settlement by halting trading, canceling orders, and closing positions.</li>



<li>Builders stake 1 million HYPE to deploy markets and define event details.</li>



<li>Markets can be recycled after resolution, and builders can set extra fees.</li>
</ul>



I highly recommend that anybody reading today’s newsletter check out <a href="https://www.bedlamresear.ch/posts/hip-4-event-perpetuals/">Bedlam Research</a>. I also encourage you to think about what edge your ecosystem or chain really has. As more chains have launched and gotten faster, differentiation is less about raw tech and more about something else. Many chains fail simply because they are designed to fail. They launch with an “innovation” that is irrelevant (15K TPS vs. 13K is not innovation) or uninteresting (for example, another restaking-focused chain).



Ask yourself: Are you investing in products, applications or tokens on chains that are actually nerdsniping developers and talent? Are there interesting, novel applications and features being discussed? If not, take a step back and ask why. Why is talent ignoring your chain?



Crypto is one of the easiest ways for developers and engineers to make money. If talent doesn’t think they can make money on a chain, consider two things: (1) will this change in the future? (2) are you looking in the wrong places?



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

0xResearch Newsletter

Is Hyperliquid the new frontier for innovation?

Macauley Peterson

Aave Labs has released its official launch roadmap for V4, laying out the final steps ahead of the major upgrade’s Q4 mainnet launch.&nbsp;



Alongside new architectural and security improvements, the <a href="https://governance.aave.com/t/aave-v4-launch-roadmap/23134">roadmap</a> introduces a fundamental shift in how user balances are tracked and highlights a strategic pullback from economically underperforming deployments across <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/layer-2-2">layer-2</a> and alternative layer-1 networks.



The V4 release moves away from aTokens’ rebasing-style mechanics toward <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/erc-4626">ERC-4626</a>-style share accounting, a change that promises cleaner integrations, easier tax treatment, and better compatibility with downstream DeFi infrastructure.&nbsp;



In a recent technical development <a href="https://governance.aave.com/t/aave-v4-development-update/23043">update</a>, Aave Labs confirmed that “tokenization is to remain optional and built using ERC 4626 vaults,” and that internal accounting will eliminate the use of exchange rates or scaled balances. The goal is to “further improve the overall reliability of the protocol.”



ERC-4626 is a widely adopted <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a> standard that expresses user deposits as shares of a vault rather than balances that grow over time. In <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/aave">Aave</a> V3, aTokens accrue interest by increasing a user’s balance directly — behavior that resembles rebasing tokens and often confuses integrations and portfolio accounting tools.&nbsp;



By contrast, ERC-4626 tracks yield through a rising price-per-share metric, leaving token balances unchanged. The result is more predictable behavior for integrators, auditors and tax software, as well as a clearer cost basis for users.



The roadmap also outlines a series of release milestones, including a formal codebase publication, a public testnet launch with a redesigned interface, and the completion of a multi-layered security review involving formal verification and manual audits. Aave Labs said the roadmap reflects the protocol’s “final stages of review, testing, and deployment,” and that additional documentation and launch preparation materials will be released in the coming weeks.



But the most pointed strategic shift comes not from the codebase, but from Aave’s own governance forums.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">“Aave revenue is made on Mainnet”</h2>



In a starkly worded “State of the Union” <a href="https://governance.aave.com/t/aave-dao-s-state-of-the-union-by-aci/23124">post</a> published by delegate Marc Zeller of the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), the DAO signaled a clear intention to consolidate around Ethereum mainnet.



“At this point in time more than half of the Aave instances across L2s and alt-L1s are not economically viable,” Zeller wrote. “Based on YTD data, more than 86.6% of Aave revenue is made on Mainnet; it is now increasingly clear that everything else is a side quest.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">My Modus Operandi for the last years 1) Publish a clear plan on the Aave DAO forum with the why, the how, and the path 2) Most ignore it, some laugh and a few smear because I have not been nice to them or their bags. 3) Execute as announced 4) Aave wins Repeat&mdash; Marc ”七十 Billy” Zeller 👻 🦇🔊 (@lemiscate) <a href="https://twitter.com/lemiscate/status/1967956597118001236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The post goes further, noting that proposals will be submitted to wind down deployments that no longer make sense for the protocol’s bottom line.



“In light of this, the ACI has updated our doctrine toward new network deployments,” Zeller added. “Therefore, we will publish proposals in the near future, aiming to close down shop on underperforming networks.”



Blockworks reached out to Aave representatives for details, such as what metrics will determine which Aave deployments are to be deprecated, but didn’t hear back prior to publication.



The commentary reflects frustration within the Aave community about the “spray and pray” expansion tactics of 2021–2023, when protocols launched instances across dozens of chains to capture incentives, often with little sustained user activity or economic value.&nbsp;



While some deployments — particularly on Ethereum L2s like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/arbitrum">Arbitrum</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/optimism">OP Mainnet</a> — have shown signs of growth, many others have remained dormant or thinly collateralized. With <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/dao">DAO</a> resources stretched across audits, governance overhead, and service-provider budgets, the protocol appears to be tightening its scope ahead of the V4 release.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107966" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-129.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Aave weekly revenue over the past year | Source: <a href="https://blockworks.com/analytics/application-comparison">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



The roadmap also dovetails with broader economic planning within the DAO. ACI estimates Aave’s annual net protocol revenue at around $130 million — even with the protocol controlling a dominant share of DeFi lending. Roughly 80–95% of gross lending revenue is returned to liquidity providers, leaving the DAO with narrow operating margins. This has prompted a renewed focus on more profitable verticals like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/umbrella-reshapes-aave-staking">GHO</a>, Aave’s native stablecoin, where the protocol itself earns the spread by acting as the sole liquidity provider.



For service providers and tokenholders, the V4 launch represents a clean break. The shift to ERC-4626 removes a major accounting complexity from aTokens and aligns Aave with standards already used by protocols like Yearn, Beefy and Pendle. Meanwhile, the governance direction makes clear that “more chains” is no longer synonymous with growth. Instead, the DAO is doubling down on Ethereum mainnet and a small set of strategically differentiated deployments.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Aave

Aave V4 roadmap signals end of multichain sprawl

Blockworks

MoneyGram has launched a new mobile application in Colombia that uses USD-pegged stablecoins to modernize cross-border remittances. According to an <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/moneygram-reinvents-cross-border-finance-with-next-generation-app-302559343.html">announcement</a> on Wednesday, the app allows customers to receive money instantly into a US dollar balance backed by Circle’s USDC stablecoin, which can be stored, spent, or cashed out through MoneyGram’s global retail network. The rollout is designed to address the volatility of local currencies, particularly the Colombian peso.



Built on the Stellar blockchain and supported by wallet infrastructure provider Crossmint, the app marks MoneyGram’s most significant move yet to integrate stablecoins into consumer-facing services.



Colombia was selected as the first market due to its heavy reliance on inbound remittances—families in the country receive more than 22 times the amount they send abroad, according to Statista. The announcement said future expansions will target other remittance-heavy markets.



MoneyGram, which has nearly 500,000 retail locations globally, has experimented with blockchain rails since partnering with the Stellar Development Foundation in 2021. It has since built cash on and off ramps for stablecoins, developed APIs for crypto integration, and incorporated stablecoins into its internal settlement processes.



“This launch is the first step toward a world where every person, everywhere, has access to dollar stablecoins,” CEO Anthony Soohoo stated.



The company emphasized compliance, citing decades of regulatory experience, though stablecoin oversight remains fluid. The US Congress passed the GENIUS Act earlier this year, establishing a framework for stablecoin regulation, which MoneyGram has pointed to as providing clearer guardrails.



This is a developing story.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

dApps

MoneyGram launches stablecoin-powered app in Colombia

Marginfi, a Solana-based lending and borrowing protocol, has patched a critical vulnerability in its flash loan mechanism that briefly placed more than $160 million in user deposits at risk.



The bug, disclosed by security researcher Felix Wilhelm through Marginfi’s bug bounty program, would have allowed an attacker to borrow funds without repaying them. The issue was resolved before any exploit occurred, and no funds were lost, <a href="https://blog.asymmetric.re/threat-contained-marginfi-flash-loan-vulnerability/">according</a> to Asymmetric Research’s report.



Flash loans, a common DeFi feature, allow users to borrow nearly all available liquidity on the condition that the funds are repaid within the same blockchain transaction. Solana protocols typically enforce this by introspecting instructions in a transaction to ensure a repayment step is included.



According to Asymmetric, Marginfi followed this approach but introduced a new instruction, transfer_to_new_account, that unintentionally bypassed repayment checks. This meant liabilities could be shifted to a new account mid-loan, enabling funds to be drained without triggering safeguards.



The report indicates that the Marginfi team swiftly deployed a patch to block account transfers during flash loans and prevent disabled accounts from being used for repayment. While Solana’s architecture limits some common Ethereum-style exploits, the vulnerability underscores that logic errors remain a critical threat.



The swift resolution demonstrates the role of bug bounty programs in preventing systemic losses. Similar past incidents, including attacks on Mango Markets and other Solana-based protocols, have shown how flash loan vulnerabilities can lead to multimillion-dollar losses.



Marginfi representatives did not respond to Blockworks’ request for comment before publication.



This is a developing story.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Cybersecurity

Asymmetric Research discloses Marginfi flash loan bug that risked $160M

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Sept 17, setting the federal funds target range at 4% to 4.25%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20250917a1.pdf">cited</a> slowing economic activity, weaker job growth, and persistently elevated inflation as key factors behind the decision. The Fed said risks to employment have risen, while inflation remains above its long-term 2% goal, underscoring the challenge of balancing its dual mandate.



The rate cut marks the latest adjustment in a cycle that began in 2022, when the central bank aggressively raised borrowing costs to combat the highest inflation in four decades. While inflation has since moderated, it has recently moved higher, prompting concerns that price pressures could become entrenched. The Fed also confirmed it will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, a process known as balance sheet runoff, which tightens financial conditions even as rates fall.



The policy statement revealed a split within the committee. Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a larger 50 basis point cut, highlighting the internal debate over how quickly to ease monetary policy amid uncertainty about the outlook. Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair John Williams, along with the majority of members, supported the more incremental move.



The Fed also adjusted supporting tools: it lowered the interest rate on reserve balances to 4.15% and reduced the primary credit rate to 4.25%. The New York Fed’s open market desk will maintain the new target range through operations including repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements.



This is a developing story.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown">subscribe</a>



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
​​“The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street
</blockquote>



Ten months ago, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, ostensibly in search of evidence that the prediction market he founded, Polymarket, had illegally allowed US residents to place bets on the US election.



Two weeks ago, the CFTC gave Polymarket the green light to allow those very same US residents to place bets on whatever they like.



This is quite the turn of events — and it’s not just about elections or politics.



With its US government seal of approval in hand, Polymarket is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-sees-valuation-skyrocket-in-new-funding-round-2025-9">reportedly</a> raising capital at a valuation of $9 billion — a reflection of the growing belief that prediction markets will be used for much more than betting on elections once every four years.



Instead, proponents say prediction markets can provide a real service to the world by providing it with better information about nearly everything.



I think they might, too — but only if insiders are free to participate.



Yesterday, for example, Polymarket announced new betting markets on company earnings reports, with a promise that it would improve the information that investors have to work with.&nbsp;



Instead of waiting three months to find out how a company is faring, investors could simply watch the odds on Polymarket.&nbsp;



If the probability of an earnings beat is rising, for example, investors would know at a glance that things are going well.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="853" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107902" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-128.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



But that will only happen if enough of the people betting actually know how things are going.



Relying on the wisdom of crowds to magically discern how a business is doing won’t add much incremental knowledge to the world; everyone’s guesses are unlikely to average out to the truth.



If company insiders were allowed to bet, however, prediction-market odds would offer a real-time barometer of a company’s fortunes.



This would be an excellent replacement for quarterly earnings reports if President Trump decides to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-quarterly-earnings-reports-sec-semiannual-cd5fbed69b72e7525848bc11109d0d35">ban them</a>.



In some ways, it might even be an improvement: Why incur the trouble and expense of updating investors so frequently when investors can get the basic idea from a chart on Polymarket?



Ideally, you’d want people at all levels of the company participating.



Early in a reporting period, warehouse managers might have the best idea of how sales are going, and their bets would share that anecdotal information with the market.



Late in the reporting period, the finance department would start to know what the earnings number will be, and their bets would share that more precise information with the market.



If that sounds like insider trading to you, that’s because it is.



But that’s no reason to disallow it: Insider trading is the kind of victimless crime that’s not worth policing.&nbsp;



In fact, non-insiders should not feel victimized at all. If you’re wrong, you’d rather sell to someone who knows you’re wrong, because they’ll give you a better price for your bet and you’ll lose less money.&nbsp;



“Lose less money” is admittedly not much of a selling point, but prediction markets are a zero-sum game (at best), so someone has to lose.



Losing is the cost of getting better information.



In Wall Street, Gordon Gekko got new information by presenting Bud Fox with a check over lunch.&nbsp;



“Astonish me, pal,” he instructed Fox. “New info. I don&#8217;t care where or how you get it, just get it.”



Fox did get it, and Gekko then shared his new information with the world by betting on it.



You probably agree with both moviegoers and lawmakers that this seems unfair. It’s hard to sympathize with Michael Douglas as a hedge fund manager with slicked-back hair.



But why would anyone do the hard work of digging up new information for free?



At their best, prediction markets are a way of paying people to dig up new information.



In the last presidential election, for example, prediction markets incentivized an anonymous Polymarket bettor to put their own poll in the field and then share that information with the world by betting on Trump to win.



More recently, Blockworks <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/native-markets-leads-usdh-race/?nocache">reported</a> that the Polymarket odds of Ethena winning the USDH ticker on Hyperliquid collapsed “after validators dismissed its chances behind closed doors.”



This is precisely how prediction markets are meant to work: Polymarket incentivized someone to go get better information — otherwise hidden “behind closed doors” — and then share that information with the world by betting on it.



Unfortunately, doing the same with quarterly earnings reports will almost certainly be illegal.



In its <a href="https://polymarket.com/tos">terms of service</a>, Polymarket prohibits several things that are universally disallowed in financial markets: front-running, wash trading, pre-arranged trading and spoofing.&nbsp;



“Insider trading” is conspicuously absent, however, which is hopeful.



But there’s also a catch-all prohibition against engaging in any activity “that violates Applicable Law.”&nbsp;



In the US, the laws applicable to prediction markets will be made by the CFTC, and the CFTC’s <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/amaf_factsheet_final.pdf">rulebook</a> seems to prohibit insider trading: “Depending on all of the facts and circumstances, trading on the basis of material non-public information in breach of a pre-existing duty…may violate final Rule 180.1.”&nbsp;



That is more permissive than the SEC’s blanket prohibition on any use of material non-public information, so it might leave scope for the CFTC to allow insiders to participate in prediction markets.



But I’m not hopeful: Every employee of an exchange-listed company has a “pre-existing duty” not to share their inside information with markets.



This is understandable as a rule designed for stock markets, where it’s important to maintain a sense of fairness.



If people think the stock market is rigged, they’ll be less inclined to invest, and companies will have a harder time raising capital.



But what’s the harm in letting insiders share their information with prediction markets?



No one’s betting their 401k money on Polymarket, so there’s no harm in people thinking that the odds are stacked against them.&nbsp;



(Nor will it stop people from participating. Everyone knows the odds are against them in sports betting, but they keep betting on sports.)



If anything, allowing insiders to trade in prediction markets would make stock markets more fair by disseminating information to everyone at the same time.



Without insiders, we’ll learn how uninformed people think a company is doing, which isn’t very helpful.



With insiders, we&#8217;ll learn how informed people know a company is doing, which is.&nbsp;



The purpose of prediction markets is to provide better information to the world, and the best information comes from insiders, so they should be encouraged to participate — even if that means we have to pay them.



“It&#8217;s all about bucks,” Gordon Gekko explained to Bud Fox.&nbsp;



“The rest is conversation.”



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

The Breakdown Newsletter

Let insiders trade

Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction market exchange, rolled out a new program on Wednesday called KalshiEco Hub.



The initiative, <a href="https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1968307024799879505">developed</a> in partnership with Solana and Coinbase-backed Base, is <a href="https://x.com/base/status/1968313776740225179">designed</a> to attract builders, traders, and content creators to a growing ecosystem around prediction markets. By combining its regulatory footing with crypto-native infrastructure, Kalshi said it is aiming to become a bridge between traditional finance and onchain innovation.



The hub offers grants, technical assistance, and marketing support to selected projects. Kalshi also announced that it will support native deposits of Solana’s SOL token and USDC stablecoin, making it easier for users already active in crypto to participate directly.



Early collaborators include <a href="https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/1968322941290172445">Kalshinomics</a>, a dashboard for market analytics, and <a href="https://x.com/VersoTrading/status/1968319644533682223">Verso</a>, which is building professional-grade tools for market discovery and execution. Other partners, such as <a href="https://x.com/brianjckim/status/1968321917657723081">Caddy</a>, are exploring ways to expand retail-facing trading experiences.



Kalshi’s move to embrace blockchain partnerships comes at a time when prediction markets are drawing fresh attention for their ability to capture sentiment around elections, economic policy, and cultural events.



Competitor Polymarket recently <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-acquires-cftc-licensed-exchange-and-clearinghouse-qcex-for-112-million-302509626.html">acquired</a> QCEX — a derivatives exchange with a CFTC license — to pave its way back into US operations under regulatory compliance. At the same time, platforms like PredictIt continue to push for a clearer regulatory footing.



The legal terrain remains complex, with some states <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/massachusetts-accuses-kalshi-running-illegal-sports-wagering-operation-2025-09-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">issuing</a> cease-and-desist orders over whether these event contracts count as gambling, not finance.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



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</ul>

Base

Kalshi debuts ecosystem hub with Solana and Base

The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has instructed banking organizations under its supervision to adopt blockchain analytics tools as part of their compliance frameworks.



The notice, <a href="https://www.dfs.ny.gov/industry-guidance/industry-letters/il20250917-blockchain">issued</a> on Sept. 17, applies to state-chartered banks and branches of foreign institutions licensed in New York. Superintendent Adrienne Harris suggested the move reflects increasing exposure to digital assets through both customer activity and bank-led virtual currency initiatives.



The department first issued guidance in April 2022 requiring licensed virtual currency firms to employ blockchain analytics to trace transactions and assess risk. It later expanded oversight in December 2022, mandating prior approval for new or materially different virtual currency-related activity.



With traditional banks now engaging in similar activities, the regulator said analytics tools should be used to screen customer wallets, verify fund origins, monitor exposure to high-risk virtual asset service providers, and detect money laundering or sanctions evasion.



NYDFS emphasized that the guidance is not a formal rulemaking but a supervisory expectation. Institutions are expected to tailor controls to their risk appetite and business models, while reassessing them regularly as market conditions evolve.



The regulator warned that growing adoption of digital assets increases the potential for illicit finance. “Covered institutions play a critical role in safeguarding the integrity of the financial ecosystem,” the agency said in its notice.&nbsp;



The directive underscores New York’s role as one of the strictest crypto oversight regimes in the United States, alongside its BitLicense framework.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Banking

New York regulator directs banks to use blockchain analytics

At EDCON 2025 in Osaka, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin delivered fresh details of Ethereum’s technical roadmap, delineating both short-term scaling goals and longer-term protocol transformations.



The immediate priority, <a href="https://x.com/_FORAB/status/1968167088784281921">according</a> to slides from the presentation, is scaling at the L1 level by raising the gas limit while maintaining decentralization. Tools such as block-level access lists, ZK-EVMs, gas repricing, and slot optimization were highlighted as means to improve throughput and efficiency.



A central theme of the presentation was privacy, divided into protections for on-chain “writes” (transactions, voting, DeFi operations) and “reads” (retrieving blockchain state). Write privacy could be achieved through client-side zero-knowledge proofs, encrypted voting, and mixnet-based transaction relays.



Read privacy efforts include trusted execution environments, private information retrieval techniques, dummy queries to obscure access patterns, and partial state nodes that reveal only necessary data. These measures aim to reduce information leakage across both ends of user interaction.



In the medium term, Ethereum’s focus shifts to cross-Layer-2 interoperability. Vitalik described trustless L2 asset transfers, proof aggregation, and faster settlement mechanisms as key milestones toward a seamless rollup ecosystem. Faster slots and stronger finality, supported by techniques like erasure coding and three-stage finalization (3SF), are also in scope to enhance responsiveness and security. The roadmap also includes Stage 2 rollup advancements to strengthen verification efficiency, alongside a call for broader community participation to help build and maintain these improvements.



The long-term “Lean Ethereum” blueprint emphasizes security, simplicity and optimization, with ambitions for quantum-resistant cryptography, formal verification of the protocol, and adoption of ideal primitives for hashing, signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs. Buterin stressed that these improvements are not just for scalability but to make Ethereum a stable, trustworthy foundation for the broader decentralized ecosystem.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin lays out new Ethereum roadmap at EDCON

Botanix Labs has launched stBTC, a liquid staking token designed to turn Bitcoin into a yield-bearing asset by redistributing network gas fees directly to users.



The protocol will begin yield accrual later this week, with its Genesis Vault <a href="https://botanixlabs.com/blog/introducing-stbtc-cold-hard-bitcoin-yield-on-botanix">scheduled</a> to open on Sept. 25, capped at 50 BTC. The initiative marks one of the first attempts to generate Bitcoin-native yield without relying on inflationary token models or centralized custodians.



stBTC works by allowing users to deposit Bitcoin into Botanix’s permissionless smart contract, receiving stBTC tokens that represent their share of the staking vault. As transactions occur, 50% of Botanix network gas fees, paid in BTC, flow back to stBTC holders.



Over time, the value of stBTC increases relative to BTC, enabling users to redeem their original deposit plus yield. Botanix estimates early returns could reach 20–50% annually before stabilizing around 6–8%, a level similar to Ethereum staking but fully denominated in Bitcoin.



Botanix says that security audits have been completed by Spearbit and Sigma Prime, and the protocol is built on the EIP-4626 vault standard, which also underpins Ethereum-based staking products.



The company’s Spiderchain architecture, operated by 16 independent entities including Galaxy, Alchemy, and Fireblocks, secures the network. If adoption grows, Botanix argues the system could make Bitcoin a productive, composable asset for decentralized finance, while reinforcing network consensus.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Bitcoin

Botanix launches stBTC to deliver Bitcoin-native yield

Wormhole is changing how its W token works by creating a new reserve designed to hold value for the long term. <a href="https://wormhole.com/blog/wormhole-announces-w-token-2-0-upgrade">Announced</a> on Wednesday, the Wormhole Reserve will collect onchain and offchain revenues and other value generated across the protocol and its applications (including Portal) and accumulate them into W, locking the tokens within the reserve.



The reserve is part of a broader update called W 2.0. Other changes include a 4% targeted base yield for tokenholders who stake and take part in governance. While staking rewards will vary, Wormhole said active users of ecosystem apps can earn boosted yields through features like Portal Earn.



The team stressed that no new tokens are being minted; rewards come from existing supply and protocol revenues, keeping the cap fixed at 10 billion.



Wormhole is also overhauling its token release schedule. Instead of releasing large amounts of W at once under the old “cliff” model, the network will shift to steady, bi-weekly unlocks starting October 3, 2025.



The aim is to avoid sharp periods of selling pressure and create a more predictable environment for investors. Lockups for some groups, including validators and investors, will extend an additional six months, until October 2028. Core contributor tokens remain under longer contractual time locks.



Wormhole launched in 2020 as a cross-chain bridge and now connects more than 40 blockchains. The W token powers governance and staking, with a capped supply of 10 billion. By redirecting fees and revenues into the new reserve, Wormhole is betting that its token can maintain value as demand for moving assets and data between chains grows.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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</ul>

Wormhole launches reserve tying protocol revenue to token

Ethereum Layer 2 project Taiko has named Chainlink Data Streams as its official oracle infrastructure, introducing sub-second, tamper-proof market data across its rollup network.



The integration, <a href="https://taiko.mirror.xyz/s45LBZf_0OwIRc4j2kJv0hFAJG1hEvxL4g94OcXraiI">announced</a> Wednesday, is designed to accelerate DeFi application development on Taiko’s based rollup architecture, which relies on Ethereum validators for transaction sequencing and censorship resistance.



Chainlink oracles, which have already secured more than $100 billion in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, have facilitated over $25 trillion in transaction value. By embedding Chainlink’s infrastructure into its ecosystem, Taiko aims to give developers access to liquidity-weighted bid-ask spreads, flexible reporting schemas, and institutional-grade market data.



The integration also allows macroeconomic data, including figures from the US Department of Commerce, to be posted onchain.



Taiko Chief Operating Officer Joaquin Mendes said adopting Chainlink ensures the network has “secure, high-fidelity market data” that can support advanced financial products such as lending protocols and derivatives platforms.&nbsp;



Mendes emphasized the project’s alignment with Ethereum’s decentralization ethos and its ambition to attract institutional capital.



Chainlink Labs’ Chief Business Officer Johann Eid said the partnership positions Taiko to “unlock significant DeFi innovation” while providing institutions with reliable infrastructure. Beyond DeFi, the collaboration is framed as a step toward enabling tokenized real-world assets and enterprise smart contract applications.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Chainlink

Taiko adopts Chainlink oracles to power market data

Bullish has secured a coveted BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, clearing the way for the crypto exchange to operate in one of the toughest US jurisdictions.



The license, <a href="https://bullish.com/news-insights/news/bullish-secures-new-york-bitlicense-from-the-nydfs-paving-way-for-u-s-launch/">confirmed</a> in a company statement on Wednesday, positions Bullish to expand into the American market after years of focusing abroad.



New York’s BitLicense, created in 2015, is widely seen as one of the strictest state regimes for digital asset firms. It requires licensees to meet stringent anti-money laundering and know-your-customer standards, hold sufficient reserves, and demonstrate strong cybersecurity protections. Fewer than 40 firms have obtained the license to date, underscoring the regulatory hurdles facing newcomers. Blockchain firms have long cited US entry as risky because of murky rules and aggressive enforcement by regulators. However, the current administration has brought about rapid changes aimed at clarifying the playing field, leading to a perceived opening for exchanges seeking to establish credibility in the world’s largest capital market.



For Bullish, the approval eliminates a major barrier to US entry and could help attract institutional investors who value regulatory clarity. Still, that approval is only the first step: License holders remain under close scrutiny and must file detailed reports to maintain good standing.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Bullish

Bullish secures New York BitLicense from NYDFS, paving way for US launch

CME Group is preparing to launch options on SOL and XRP futures next month, giving traders new ways to manage exposure to the two assets.&nbsp;



The contracts are set to go live on October 13, pending regulatory approval, and will come in both standard and micro sizes with expiries offered daily, monthly and quarterly.



The new <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-to-launch-options-on-solana-and-xrp-futures-302558956.html">listings</a> mark a major step for CME, which first brought bitcoin futures to market in 2017 and added ether contracts in 2021. Solana and XRP futures have quickly gained traction since their debut earlier this year.



CME says more than 540,000 Solana contracts (worth about $22.3 billion), and 370,000 XRP contracts (worth $16.2 billion), have already been traded. Both products hit record trading activity and open interest in August.



Market makers including Cumberland and FalconX plan to support the new contracts, arguing that institutional investors want hedging tools beyond bitcoin and ether. CME’s move also highlights the growing demand for regulated ways to access a broader set of digital assets.



The launch, which still needs the green light from regulators, follows the end of XRP’s years-long legal fight with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. A federal court ruling in 2023 found that institutional sales of XRP violated securities laws, but programmatic exchange sales did not. The case officially closed in August 2025 after Ripple agreed to pay a $125 million fine, removing one of the biggest uncertainties hanging over the token.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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CME Group

CME Group to launch Solana and XRP futures options in October

Forward Industries is continuing to bet big on Solana. The Nasdaq-listed company said on Wednesday that it will raise up to $4 billion through an at-the-market equity program, with proceeds aimed at expanding its SOL holdings.



The program, arranged with Cantor Fitzgerald, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250916485458/en/Forward-Industries-Announces-%244-Billion-At-The-Market-Equity-Offering-Program">allows</a> Forward to sell shares directly into the market over time instead of in a single issuance. The company said the flexible structure will support its Solana-focused treasury strategy, which has already included the purchase of more than 6.8 million SOL this year.



Chairman Kyle Samani described the program as a way to keep building the company’s Solana position while giving it room to fund other growth initiatives. Forward’s strategy is backed by investors including Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital, positioning it as one of the largest public firms centered on Solana rather than Bitcoin or Ethereum.



Forward acknowledged that its stock price may become tightly linked to the value of SOL, a token known for sharp volatility. US regulators have also raised questions about how companies account for and disclose crypto holdings, leaving open the possibility of shifting compliance requirements.



Still, the scale of the raise highlights how some public companies are using traditional capital markets to double down on digital asset strategies. If fully executed, the $4 billion program would make Forward one of the most aggressive corporate buyers of Solana to date.



This is a developing story.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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DATs

Forward Industries launches $4B Solana treasury equity plan

Kraken announced on Wednesday that it has partnered with Circle to expand access to USD Coin (USDC) and launch support for Circle’s euro-backed stablecoin, EURC.



Kraken says the <a href="https://blog.kraken.com/news/circle-partnership">move</a> will provide its clients with deeper liquidity, reduced conversion fees, and new ways to deploy stablecoins across the exchange’s suite of financial applications. Circle, the issuer of USDC and EURC, has positioned its products as fully reserved and regulated alternatives to traditional banking rails.



USDC, first launched in 2018, has become one of the most widely used dollar stablecoins, while EURC extends that model to Europe’s common currency. Kraken first listed stablecoins in 2017 and has seen accelerating demand as regulatory clarity improves in key jurisdictions.



Kraken Global Head of Consumer Business Mark Greenberg said stablecoins are “permissionless, programmable and global by default,” emphasizing their alignment with crypto’s original design.&nbsp;



Circle Chief Commercial Officer Kash Razzaghi highlighted the company’s ambition to build the world’s largest stablecoin network by partnering with established trading venues like Kraken.



The announcement follows broader industry trends where exchanges and issuers are working to integrate stablecoins into payments, lending, and settlement systems. Kraken indicated more product details tied to the partnership will be released in the coming months.



This is a developing story.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeffrey Albus</a>&nbsp;before publication.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

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