Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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In a real 11-hour move, Congressional leaders have unveiled a stopgap bill to fund the government for three more months.&nbsp;



Should it pass, lawmakers will narrowly avoid a government shutdown. However, the new deadline to agree on a budget would come during President-elect Trump’s crucial first 100 days in office.&nbsp;



Lawmakers now have until Friday to pass the highly-anticipated <a href="https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf">continuing resolution</a>, all 1,500 pages of it. The House Rules Committee will have to approve a violation of the 72-hour rule, whereby bill text is released three days ahead of a vote. Over in the Senate, unanimous approval is needed to break procedure for passage before the deadline.



As we’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/congress-in-final-weeks-of-session">written about before</a>, Republicans and Democrats largely agree that a CR is the best way (and at this point, the only way) to avert a shutdown.



Some highlights from the bill:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>$110.4 billion in total disaster aid, most of which would go to southern US states in the wake of hurricanes Milton and Helene. </li>



<li>There’s a provision that would give DC control over Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium, an agreement that would help the District bring the Commanders back to the city. </li>



<li>A 3.8% “cost of living” increase on Congressional salaries, which currently stand at $174,000.</li>
</ul>



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Congress kicks the can

Ben Strack

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Industry insiders have predicted <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ipos-bringing-back-retail">more crypto IPOs</a> in 2025. In a possible preview, today we saw a segment player uplisted to a major exchange.



Shares of crypto wallet provider Exodus became available on the NYSE American stock exchange Wednesday. It was a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/exodus-wallet-post-election-check-in">“finally” moment</a> for the company, which had prepared for this in May before an unexpected <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/05/09/2878404/0/en/Listing-of-Exodus-Class-A-Common-Stock-Delayed-by-NYSE-American.html">delay</a>.



Exodus considers itself “a pure-play crypto company” at a time when more investors seek exposure.



CFO James Gertneztke said access to capital markets could be helpful for product and marketing initiatives, or for buying other companies.&nbsp;



The focus in 2025 is to launch and (extend the reach of) products that bridge the TradFi-crypto gap (i.e. passkeys and XO Swap), he noted.



“We have a large warchest already so this is not necessarily an immediate impact,” Gertneztke said of the capital markets access. Part of that warchest he’s referring to is a treasury comprising 1900 BTC and 2,660 ETH.&nbsp;



Exodus has held bitcoin since its 2015 founding. The company receives most of its revenue in BTC and USDC; revenues linked to its exchange aggregator processing record volume in Q4 helped Exodus recently add <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">100 BTC to its treasury</a>.



“We have no debt, so our holdings are not ‘levered,’” the CFO added. 



The company’s BTC holdings might seem small relative to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-bitcoin-bet">MicroStrategy’s</a> (439,000 BTC). But 1,900 BTC (currently worth ~$200 million) is nothing to sneeze at, and corporate <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/marathon-buying-btc-momentum">BTC buying sprees</a> seem poised to continue.



Gertneztke, indeed, made it clear to me: “We don’t plan on stopping in the new year.”



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A long-awaited NYSE American listing

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The FOMC today, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. Committee members cited a commitment to achieving “maximum employment” and getting inflation closer to its 2% target as reasons for the decision. It’s the central bank’s third consecutive rate cut, but projections show committee members expect to slow their pace of decreases in 2025.&nbsp;



Odds of another 25bps cut in January are now at 82%, according to <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a> from CME Group.&nbsp;



Committee member projections published Wednesday show the median interest rate target by the end of 2025 falling in the 3.75% — 4% range. This is 50bps higher than previous projections showed.&nbsp;



The FOMC’s forward guidance (see what we did there) from this week’s meeting was mostly unchanged but a key phrase was added: “extent and timing.”



“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” Wednesday’s <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20241218a1.pdf">statement</a> read.&nbsp;



It’s the decision we saw coming, so markets shouldn’t be surprised. Still, the “Trump trade,” i.e., the rally we’ve seen across the board since the election, appears to have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-equities-recover-after-trump-fueled-rally">stalled</a>. Stocks, with the exception of Big Tech, have largely traded sideways for most of the month.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500 is up just 0.2% since Dec. 2. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, has gained around 3.7%. Not too shabby of a return, but still down from November, when the index gained almost 6%.&nbsp;



What gives? Politics. And I’m not just saying that because I’m writing this newsletter from Reagan International.&nbsp;



“Since Trump announced several unorthodox <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-cabinet-selection">cabinet nominations</a>, there has basically been an inverse correlation between cyclical stocks and the likelihood these cabinet nominations get confirmed,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said. “Prior to Trump’s announcement of Matt Gaetz as AG, Pete Hegseth as Defense, RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary and Tulsi Gabbard as National Intelligence Director, the market was marching steadily higher.”



The slowing Trump rally has markets poised for a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bullish-december-rally-possibility">Santa rally</a>, some analysts say. We’re still a few days out from the true “Santa rally window” (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two days of the new year), and with the Fed’s decision coming in as-expected, a breakout in equities and crypto could be imminent.&nbsp;



The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently on its longest losing streak since 1978 (nine days), but historically slumps preempt runs, at least the vast majority of the time. As a reminder, this is not trading advice!



The S&amp;P 500 was down 0.6% over today’s session in the moments after the Fed’s decision, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had also lost 0.6% just after 2 pm ET.



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Fed delivers expected 25bps cut as investors speculate a Santa rally 

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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Focusing on EVM chains, the Flipside’s Onchain Users Report tracked both record growth and emerging challenges in maintaining engagement quality. Here are a few trends to watch in 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Record user growth</h2>



Newly acquired users reached a record 19.4 million in October, with Base contributing 13.7m — “almost 8x the runner-up, Polygon,”​ the report notes. This explosive growth was attributed to Coinbase’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-safeguarding-crypto">vast user base</a> and Base’s focus on “trending sectors like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/meme-coins">memecoin</a> trading and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/artificial-intelligence">onchain AI</a> via new initiatives like Based Agents.”​



An “acquired user” is defined as a user who has conducted at least two transactions in 2024​.



Ethereum also saw consistent user growth, averaging 1.56m new users monthly. <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/arbitrum">Arbitrum</a> peaked in May with 3.3m acquired users, fueled by GameFi and SocialFi​.



Bitcoin usership, however, remained relatively flat despite BTC reaching its historic <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-new-all-time-high-100k">$100k milestone</a>. This reflects speculative activity rather than meaningful onboarding.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Superusers: Base and Polygon dominate</h2>



Flipside terms “superuser” as those who executed 100 or more transactions on a chain, at any point.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/base">Base</a> led the way here with 15.1m wallets executing 100+ transactions, 38% more than Ethereum’s 10.7m superusers. Meanwhile, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polygon">Polygon</a> recorded 1.5m new superusers in 2024, underscoring its strength outside of DeFi. According to the report, “Polygon’s superuser activity also surpassed that of every other observed chain, with 867.7m monthly super-user transactions.”​



Ethereum retained its position as the DeFi hub with 10.9m DeFi-related superusers, more than Arbitrum and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/optimism">Optimism</a> combined.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Blast’s surge and sharp decline</h2>



Among newly launched chains, <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/blast">Blast</a> made headlines with a record single-month peak of 134.9k acquired users in June. This was driven by its ability to incentivize “a wide range of gamified onchain activities.”



However, the chain experienced a significant user drop-off in Q4. Despite the evident exodus of points farmers from the chain, the report highlights Blast’s upside potential: “The remaining users are still active on multiple fronts, suggesting that the chain has the potential to outlive, and exceed, its initial hype.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Uniswap’s DeFi dominance</h2>



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/uniswap">Uniswap</a> solidified its dominance, capturing 91.3% of DEX activity on Base and increasing its share on Ethereum by 27.72% compared to 2023. This points to a broader trend, “a ‘winner-takes-most’ DeFi market [that] disproportionately favors larger incumbent players with deeper liquidity and brand familiarity,” the authors said.



Meanwhile, LFJ (née Trader Joe) retained its lead on <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/avalanche">Avalanche</a>, growing its market share by just over 6% from 2023, thanks to innovations like Auto-Pools.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The challenge</h2>



While 2024 saw record user acquisition, Flipside emphasizes the need for quality engagement. As the report notes: “Behind the headlines of record user growth lies a deeper challenge: building ecosystems that create meaningful, lasting engagement, not just fleeting speculation.”



For instance, despite Base attracting massive numbers of users, the report underscores the “narrow range of onchain actions its new user base is currently engaged in,” such as simply gambling on a memecoin or two. It’s not clear whether apps can execute on the opportunity to redirect users toward deeper activities like DeFi.



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Base leads explosive growth: Flipside

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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MicroStrategy is sucking most of the air out of the room right now. But there are even bigger forces at play.



As debate rages over whether Saylor is a once-in-a-lifetime financial genius or just another overleveraged trader, stablecoins are bringing even more liquidity to crypto.



At least, that’s in terms of raw dollar value being pumped into the space right now.&nbsp;



MSTR has now spent $17.5 billion on bitcoin in the past two months alone, as shown by the orange areas on the chart below. Most of that cash has come from buyers of its infamous zero-percent convertible bonds.



MicroStrategy’s purchases can then be viewed simply as accepting dollars with one hand and plowing them into bitcoin with the other. Fast and cheap liquidity in return for exposure.



In the same period, bitcoin ETFs in the US have gained an additional $16.5 billion in net inflows. ETH ETFs have otherwise net added $3 billion, and together those flows are in blue on the chart.



ETFs follow much the same process as MicroStrategy but without the bonds. They take investor cash to buy an equivalent amount of bitcoin or ether, passing on exposure to shareholders minus a fee.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcJPlSGdszNXxp79rxY9T0mI7qszP2QnJSmS1AphMLhSVzNi5f8UZfExCVfAuO7hgZh9e1uLfSFkDHTP7Ah3h74KE96N8wNOIaXlZnrQaxRj86c89FerbJp6Q6B4IPz9ln2EOfQ?key=LkPy9etj0hhgnPeOxAZhbQCx" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Stablecoins, MicroStrategy’s bitcoin buys and ETF inflows converged in November</figcaption></figure>



And then there’s stablecoins. Since mid-October, stablecoins issuers have collectively minted an additional $30.8 billion tokens. Over 92% of those inflows have gone to USDT and USDC.&nbsp;



Outside of Sky’s USDS and the more exotic alternatives that have emerged, such as Ethena’s USDe and <a href="https://empire-31ed59.beehiiv.com/p/weekday-month-day-6e60b2af555c25f5?utm_source=empire-31ed59.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=public-good-public-stock&amp;_bhlid=2b21ca86ef6b71e210d195fa6ed6c7f1d096d6a0">Usual’s USD0</a>, stablecoin managers generally take US dollars, buy short-dated Treasurys and other cash equivalents and then issue the same amount of fresh token supply to whomever wired them cash.&nbsp;



Obviously, stablecoins flows aren’t really the same thing as ETF inflows or MSTR’s cash pipeline.&nbsp;



But they do represent something similar: a widespread urge to enter crypto markets across a multitude of avenues.



That’s now to the tune of almost $68 billion in the past nine weeks — easily the biggest liquidity wave on record, at least by my count.



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MicroStrategy spent $17.5B on bitcoin in the last 2 months

Sonic Labs has officially launched its Sonic mainnet, a next-generation EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain built to empower developers with robust features and compelling incentives.



With the capability to handle up to 10,000 transactions per second and near-instant finality, Sonic sets a new benchmark for performance. It also features a native decentralized bridge that seamlessly connects to Ethereum, making it a powerful platform for building innovative, high-impact applications.



Spearheaded by the team behind Fantom, Sonic is rooted in proven technology. The introduction of the S token propels Sonic far beyond Fantom and FTM, reshaping the landscape of DeFi. It’s engineered to provide developers with cutting-edge tools while offering users rapid access to abundant liquidity.



For FTM holders, the transition to Sonic couldn’t be easier—thanks to a simple 1:1 token upgrade to S.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Empowering Developers: Sonic’s Innovative Fee-Share Model</h2>



Sonic Labs is revolutionizing how blockchain developers are rewarded. Unlike traditional platforms that prioritize extracting value, Sonic takes a radically different approach: channeling a substantial portion of network fees back to the developers themselves. This strategy reflects a strong commitment to fostering an ecosystem rooted in innovation, growth, and long-term sustainability.



The <a href="https://docs.soniclabs.com/funding/fee-monetization">Fee Monetization</a> (FeeM) program is a game-changer. Developers can earn up to 90% of the fees generated by their applications—similar to revenue-sharing models seen in Web2 platforms like YouTube, but implemented within a decentralized environment. The model incentivizes app success, meaning developers earn more as their applications attract greater engagement and usage.



By blending proven digital monetization strategies with cutting-edge blockchain technology, Sonic empowers developers to build, scale, and profit from their applications efficiently and sustainably.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Introducing Sonic Gateway: The Decentralized Bridge</h2>



As blockchain ecosystems grow, the demand for secure and efficient cross-chain solutions is at an all-time high. Unfortunately, many existing bridges rely on centralized structures, making them prime targets for hacks and failures.



Sonic Gateway by Sonic Labs changes the game. This decentralized bridge seamlessly connects Ethereum and Sonic, offering a secure and user-friendly experience. Here’s what sets it apart:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Uncompromising Security: Sonic Gateway prioritizes your asset safety. If the bridge becomes inactive for two weeks, a built-in fail-safe allows you to recover your funds directly on Ethereum. This permanent safety net ensures peace of mind and reliable protection. </li>



<li>Blazing-Fast Transfers: Transfers occur in predictable intervals—every 10 minutes from Ethereum to Sonic, and hourly in reverse. Need faster access? Opt for the Fast Lane feature to bridge instantly by paying a minimal fee. </li>



<li>Fully Decentralized Operation: Unlike centralized bridges, Sonic Gateway is managed by Sonic’s validator network across both chains. This removes single points of failure and ensures the bridge maintains the same level of decentralization as the Sonic network.</li>
</ul>



How to Bridge Your Assets:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Visit the <a href="https://gateway.soniclabs.com/">Sonic Gateway platform</a>.</li>



<li>Connect your Web3 wallet.</li>



<li>Choose the asset you want to transfer.</li>



<li>Review the expected amount on Sonic.</li>



<li>Approve the transaction.</li>
</ol>



Sonic Labs has big plans to expand the reach of Sonic Gateway, adding support for more blockchains and enabling frictionless access to native assets across ecosystems. By maintaining decentralized custody, Sonic Gateway eliminates the vulnerabilities of centralized and third-party bridge solutions, ensuring your assets remain secure and accessible at all times.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Switching from FTM to S: Your Step-by-Step Guide</h2>



As Fantom transitions into Sonic, it’s time for FTM holders to upgrade to the new S token. To make this process hassle-free, Sonic Labs has introduced an easy-to-navigate upgrade portal on MySonic. Converting your FTM to S tokens is simple and maintains a 1:1 exchange rate.



Here’s how to upgrade:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Head to the <a href="https://my.soniclabs.com/upgrade">FTM-to-S upgrade portal</a>.</li>



<li>Connect your Web3-compatible wallet.</li>



<li>Enter the amount of FTM you wish to convert.</li>



<li>Confirm the amount of S tokens you’ll receive (it’s a direct 1:1 swap).</li>



<li>Approve and submit the transaction.</li>
</ol>



The process is quick and seamless. Your new S tokens will show up in your wallet on Sonic within moments after completing the swap.



For the first 90 days after launch, the portal offers full flexibility, allowing you to swap back and forth between FTM and S. Once this period ends, the portal will only support FTM-to-S conversions.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Unlocking Growth: 190.5 Million S Airdrop</h2>



Sonic Labs is rolling out a major airdrop, distributing <a href="https://docs.soniclabs.com/funding/airdrop">190.5 million S tokens</a> to developers and users to accelerate growth on the Sonic network. The initiative is divided into two reward systems: Sonic Points and Sonic Gems.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sonic Points are designed for users, rewarding activities like early adoption, asset holding, app usage, and overall engagement within the Sonic ecosystem. This encourages active participation and long-term loyalty. </li>



<li>Sonic Gems focus on developers, incentivizing applications that drive user interaction and innovation. Developers can convert their earned Gems into S tokens, which can be used to reward their app users, boosting growth and sustained activity.</li>
</ul>



The distribution of Sonic Points and Gems will happen across multiple seasons, ensuring a steady and adaptable rewards program. The first season is scheduled to wrap up by June 2025.



With its groundbreaking technology, developer-first incentives, and seamless user experience, Sonic Labs is poised to redefine the blockchain landscape, empowering a new era of innovation, scalability, and decentralized success.



This content is sponsored and does not serve as an endorsement by Blockworks. The veracity of this content has not been verified and should not serve as financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research before making financial decisions. 



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Sonic Labs unveils Sonic mainnet: The future of fast, EVM-compatible blockchains

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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ICYMI: Crypto custodian BiT Global took action against Coinbase last week for delisting wBTC.&nbsp;



Coinbase first announced its decision to delist wBTC back in late November, just a few months after it launched cbBTC, its own wrapped bitcoin.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">We regret and are surprised by Coinbase’s decision to delist WBTC. As the core team behind Wrapped BTC, we have always been committed to providing the community with the most compliant, transparent, and decentralized BTC tokenization product. Over the years, WBTC has established…&mdash; WBTC (@WrappedBTC) <a href="https://twitter.com/WrappedBTC/status/1858932022569587023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Growing up with a parent who was a lawyer, I was always told there are three sides to every story: Each party’s own side and then the truth.&nbsp;



Last night, Coinbase <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/c5bd0wqjc7v0/59OyVZocZqtlU9B2lTEHDr/fc3854730ce855db79d5111b029122c8/as-filed_Coinbase_opp.pdf">responded</a> to BiT Global’s suit, and both parties have made some, well, interesting arguments.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">We&#39;ve filed our response to BiT Global’s effort to stop our delisting of wBTC before any discovery or even formal response to their bogus claims. We lay out why this lawsuit lacks any semblance of merit and why their request for a TRO should be denied. You can read it all for…&mdash; paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) <a href="https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1869114052179542381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Coinbase’s filing centers around Justin Sun, who’s been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitgo-wbtc-custodial-changes">linked to wBTC</a> since August. Basically, the firm said that wBTC failed its listing standards because of the “unacceptable risk” Sun poses due to his “material involve[ment].”&nbsp;



“Consistent with that process, Coinbase conducted careful diligence, including asking BiT questions about who ultimately owned and controlled BiT. BiT refused to answer, presumably to conceal Mr. Sun’s role, much as it has done here. At the conclusion of its diligence, Coinbase concluded that Mr. Sun’s affiliation with—and potential control over—wBTC presented an unacceptable risk to its customers and the integrity of its exchange,” it said in its filing Tuesday.



BiT, on the other hand, argued that Coinbase had ulterior motives to delist wBTC, which is to throw around its weight as one of the top exchanges — forcing users to only have access to its own wrapped bitcoin offering, rather than enabling a choice between the two.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Coinbase’s decision to delist WBTC, without any concrete reason beyond a vague “recent review” goes against everything the DeFi and crypto industry stand for. It’s clear that Coinbase’s decision is an attempt to gain a competitive advantage, pushing forward their own wrapped…&mdash; BiT Global (@BiTGlobalTrust) <a href="https://twitter.com/BiTGlobalTrust/status/1859265686012596275?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 20, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“Having achieved the network effects that were its goal, it has now embarked on an effort to use that power to replace cryptocurrencies created by others with its own knock-off versions—with Coinbase taking short term-losses to keep profits for itself longterm as its knock-off gains market share. And wBTC is Coinbase’s first target,” BiT argued last week.



BiT claims that this is “a tale as old as Silicon Valley,” and mentions that Google, Microsoft and Facebook have all tried to take out the competition.&nbsp;



“A centralized platform gains more and more users from a first mover advantage. It creates a moat for itself using network effects which lock those users into its platform. And then it starts changing the rules that got it there. After the bait-and-switch, smaller entrepreneurs find themselves the victims of a corporate goliath that sees their innovations merely as a resource to be grabbed by any means possible and absorbed into itself,” it said.



Coinbase, however, argued that the exchange makes up for a “de minimis (less than 1%) portion” of wBTC traded. Per Coinbase, there’s not enough evidence to justify a court executing a temporary restraining order to force the exchange to keep hosting wBTC.&nbsp;



A hearing in California is set for later today, so we’ll soon see how both arguments play out.



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Coinbase and BiT Global prepare for their day in court

Jack Kubinec

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Crypto asset manager Bitwise has launched a solana staking ETP in Europe with the ticker BSOL, Lightspeed has learned exclusively. Solana staking firm Marinade will be Bitwise’s staking provider.



The move comes less than a month after Bitwise <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-ceo-solana-ncredible-emerging-asset">signaled its plans</a> to list a solana ETF in the US by registering a statutory trust in Delaware. Bitwise’s decision to build out its SOL staking infrastructure could also give it the capacity to offer staking rewards for its US spot SOL ETF. Current US applications all have staking rewards stripped out due to securities law concerns, but some are speculating that might change under a Paul Atkins-led SEC.&nbsp;



Another US-based crypto asset manager made a similar move in recent months when VanEck <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-begins-sol-staking">began a SOL staking partnership</a> with Kiln.



Bitwise first offered a European solana ETP when it <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitwise-europe-acquisition-crypto-etps">acquired London-based ETC Group</a> and its ESOL product, which currently holds $24 million in assets under management, down from $27 million a month ago. Investors’ problem with ESOL is likely its lack of staking rewards, which have been quite lucrative for solana investors in recent months. BSOL has staking rewards baked in.



Solana staking rewards come from SOL issuance, priority fees and MEV tips that users and the network pay out to validators who run the blockchain’s software. Validators pass these rewards onto stakers to compete for staked SOL. For stakers, the reward rate is around 8% annually, according to Solana Compass. This is more than double the <a href="https://ethereum.org/en/staking/">average</a> staking APY on Ethereum.



To be clear, solana ETP issuers don’t pay this full amount. 21Shares’ solana staking ETP, the fifth-largest crypto ETP in Europe, pays 5.49%. Bitwise will pay 6.48%, according to a document shared with Blockworks, and it is using Marinade as its staking provider, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said. 21Shares also charges a 2.5% management fee, while BSOL will cost investors 0.85% per year.



Again, none of the US solana ETFs would include staking rewards as currently constructed. But that order of things may not last. Bitwise’s staking provider Marinade <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/315725/marinade-hires-fidelity-digital-asset-services-founding-president-as-chief-commercial-officer">hired</a> New York-based banking executive Hadley Stern to be its chief commercial officer in September, perhaps to prepare for a rush of US institutions looking to access solana staking yield.



It’s impossible to know exactly how the future might play out, but with VanEck and now Bitwise adding solana staking ETPs to their portfolios, something like this is plausible: Atkins comes to power, SOL staking rewards are deemed not to be securities, spot ETF issuers re-file with staking rewards attached, and firms use their European staking ETP infrastructure to offer the same products in the US.



But I wouldn’t bank on that happening very soon. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/315725/marinade-hires-fidelity-digital-asset-services-founding-president-as-chief-commercial-officer">said</a> today he expects SOL ETFs to be approved in the US only after BTC and ETH combo, Litecoin, and HBAR products all have gotten the go-ahead.



Updated Dec. 18, 2024 at 3:40 pm ET: Clarified that Solana’s staking rewards come from priority fees and MEV tips in addition to SOL issuance.



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Bitwise launches solana staking ETP in Europe as US applications linger

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The Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday decided to abandon its effort to re-confirm SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.&nbsp;



The news, somewhat ironically, was leaked while Sen. Tim Scott, the Republican gunning to lead the Banking Committee next session, was wrapping up his remarks at the Blockchain Association event.&nbsp;



Crenshaw’s confirmation vote, initially scheduled <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-commissioner-crenshaw-vote-delayed">for last week</a>, was postponed after Senate Republicans successfully blocked it.



“Having fought ‘train Crenshaw’ for the last several months… to have a resounding victory of not having her go forward last week, I was so excited,” Scott said before learning the vote had been canceled.&nbsp;



The vote was rescheduled for this week, but the committee “just didn’t have the votes,” a person familiar with the matter said. A spokesperson from the committee disagreed, saying they “had the support,” but “ran out of time.”&nbsp;



A representative for Crenshaw did not immediately return a request for comment.&nbsp;



Now that Crenshaw is out and Chair Gary Gensler and Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga, both Democrats, will be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">resigning</a> in the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-departures-regulation-changes">new year</a>, President-elect Donald Trump now has three seats to fill.&nbsp;



In the meantime, Trump will name either Commissioner Hester Peirce or Mark Uyeda as acting chair while his pick for the top job, Republican <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-nominee-crypto-past">Paul Atkins</a>, is confirmed.&nbsp;



So the commission is going to be small — at least for the first few weeks of 2025. This will not be the first time the SEC has operated with only two commissioners, and precedent largely supports allowing these two commissioners to vote on matters and conduct business as usual.&nbsp;



The more provocative these actions are, though, the greater the likelihood of a legal battle. When it comes to making the agenda, the chair, or acting chair, holds all the power.



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Senate Banking Committee cancels confirmation vote for SEC’s Caroline Crenshaw

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It’s been half a year since Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago meeting with <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-bitcoin-mining-meeting">bitcoin mining executives</a>, and his engagement with the industry has persisted.



After vocalizing support for American BTC mining in June, Trump unveiled more crypto-related promises at Nashville’s Bitcoin 2024 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-2024-nashville-recap">conference</a>.



Then, in November, the Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-11-18-2024/card/exclusive-trump-to-meet-privately-with-coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-DDkgF0xW1BW242rVeuqx">broke news</a> about his scheduled meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.



The latest rendezvous? A conversation with Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek on Monday.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Honored to have a seat at the table. <a href="https://t.co/KvK0XyEdYZ">pic.twitter.com/KvK0XyEdYZ</a>&mdash; Kris | Crypto.com (@kris) <a href="https://twitter.com/kris/status/1868812557525697004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“They discussed appointments related to the crypto industry, the Bitcoin reserve and the overall optimism for [the] US crypto market,” a person familiar with the conversation told Blockworks.&nbsp;



A Crypto.com spokesperson declined to comment on details.&nbsp;



We’ve seen Trump nominate crypto-friendly people (i.e. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-commerce-dept-leader">Howard Lutnick</a>) to key positions and bring on a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">so-called crypto czar</a>. The proposed national bitcoin reserve too remains something everyone is watching.



Lawmakers in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/brazil-bill-for-national-bitcoin-reserve">Brazil</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomerniv/2024/12/16/the-cold-war-of-national-bitcoin-reserve-global-race-for-digital-gold/">Japan</a> have started discussing such purchases. Trump preaches American superiority, so setting out to win a BTC buying race wouldn’t be much of a stretch.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The president-elect indeed <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8d-2QVdtag">signaled</a> a BTC reserve is being considered. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has said other countries would “stampede to keep up” should the US go this route. 



You probably remember Saylor giving a <a href="https://x.com/saylor/status/1863323760511627565">presentation</a> for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microsoft-btc-shareholder-proposal-vote">Microsoft shareholders</a> on why BTC is worth buying and holding. The question now is when he’ll give a similar one in the White House.



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Trump-crypto CEO meeting about appointments, BTC reserve 

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Bitcoin maxis, it’s time to take notice — sBTC on Stacks is here, and it’s designed to let your bitcoin work overtime, according to Andre Serrano, head of product at Stacks.



&#8220;The nice thing about this is that you are eligible for this yield both by holding it as well as deploying it in DeFi,” Serrano told Blockworks.



Here’s the alpha:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Mint and hold sBTC — by bridging bitcoin into sBTC (a 1:1 bitcoin-backed asset secured via Stacks), users become eligible for rewards (bitcoinismore.org) paid out in bitcoin, not points or inflationary tokens. Rewards are distributed every two weeks —&nbsp; BTC in, BTC out — simple and clean</li>



<li>Deploy in DeFi — The rewards don’t need to stop there. Stacks-native DeFi protocols like <a href="https://www.zestprotocol.com/">Zest</a> offer additional incentives on top of the base 5%. For example, by supplying sBTC in Zest, a bitcoin liquidity protocol, users can stack another 6-7% APY in extra incentives. </li>
</ol>



The kicker? Unlike other BTC-pegged solutions, sBTC stays liquid — you don’t need to stake or lock it up to earn rewards. However, there’s one caveat: Withdrawals back to the Bitcoin network will only be enabled in March 2025. So, for the most trust-minimized way to bridge back, you’ll need to wait.



But sBTC is expected to soon be bridgeable to chains like Solana and Aptos via Axelar, anticipated for January. So, there could be a circuitous route back to Bitcoin via these protocols, subject to liquidity constraints.



On Stacks, sBTC currently relies on a threshold signature 15-key multisig setup, where 15 signers from the community manage deposits and withdrawals. This operates under an honest majority assumption, meaning at least 11 of the 15 signers must act honestly for the system to remain secure.



To bolster trust, Stacks has onboarded reputable, professional signers like Blockdaemon and Kiln, firms known for securing billions in assets across multiple chains. These signers also post collateral and earn bitcoin rewards for maintaining the protocol, aligning incentives to ensure security.



Looking ahead, the plan is to gradually decentralize the system by integrating sBTC into the Stacks consensus mechanism, where all Stacks signers will eventually participate. This will further enhance security, bringing trust assumptions closer to those of Stacks itself.



Updated Dec. 17, 2024 at 3 pm ET: Clarified the honest majority assumption has a 70% majority threshold — meaning 11 out of 15 signers must act honestly, rather than 8 as previously stated. 



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Double-dipping with sBTC on Stacks

Donovan Choy

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Today, Scroll, Axiom, developer <a href="https://x.com/maxgillett">Max Gillet</a> and the Ethereum Foundation’s Privacy &amp; Scaling Explorations (PSE) team are announcing OpenVM, an open-source zkVM framework for instant proving.



OpenVM will be adopted by the Scroll L2 as its zkVM, and plans to validate mainnet blocks in coming months. This transitions Scroll from a currently Type-3 to a Type-1 zkEVM — the most fully Ethereum-equivalent zkEVM type.



Scroll’s upgrade to a <a href="https://l2beat.com/scaling/projects/scroll#stage">Stage-1</a> rollup with a fully functioning proof system will follow soon thereafter.



According to a press release, Scroll’s decision to design a new zkVM from the ground up was driven by a belief that many existing zkVM solutions were “monolithic” and “locking developers into vertically integrated stacks.”



OpenVM’s open-source and modular architecture would enable Scroll to introduce features without making changes to the underlying circuit, and developers to benefit from zkVM improvements without having to modify application code.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The state of ZK</h2>



OpenVM joins a market already crowded with zkVMs. Unlike traditional virtual machines, zkVMs are designed to compile and execute smart contracts into zero-knowledge proofs in a secure and private way that does not reveal underlying data.



Today, the zkVM market carries at least a dozen different zkVMs, such as RISC Zero “<a href="https://dev.risczero.com/api/zkvm/">RISC0</a>” and Succinct’s “<a href="https://blog.succinct.xyz/introducing-sp1/">SP1</a>.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeghMDtaeO_thb6Taoki-q-Ar5eCp0FyLRBGKnG_IupBkpBorriOSXdcflblUBYac9TINzcCabu7-a2joHRIkzv7qEx9_eZSKnXw24f9LILGKP8xSrHiu7feGJtmjR-n_XuKQ5X2g?key=usYGxGdO1mGcCs1Nub8LIt2t" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.cryptomarketmap.org/zk-marketmap.pdf">Electric Capital</a></figcaption></figure>



As seen in the below chart, proofs submitted to Ethereum mainnet saw a peak in December 2023, largely coming from zk rollups like Linea, ZKsync and Scroll, rather than applications. Proof volumes saw a drop in 2024, largely due to two factors.



One, proof generation has been increasingly batched using <a href="https://l2beat.com/zk-catalog">recursive proof aggregation</a> — a technique that verifies multiple proofs within one proof — to reduce costs.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcjR_C_qH558za4fGQ_P44uUjbFLs1fkLskLj66K3G8UChItcz0IxwZGtuk7Sa-wOUQXLLy-K9kwHVXzWn4q-9iKlo1qulvrE_cSX-Hf-z2dE0pUI-CX9jcnx7cwHw9rDRE3ezD?key=usYGxGdO1mGcCs1Nub8LIt2t" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Souce: <a href="https://zkstats.io/">zkstats.io</a></figcaption></figure>



Second, proof verification is getting more efficient, so costs are steeply <a href="https://zkstats.io/">declining</a> from just a year ago.



Prover networks like Risc Zero’s “Boundless” and Fermah have also helped apps and rollups to bring zk-proving costs down. These networks allow teams to outsource proof generation to specialized hardware providers with ASICs and GPUs that compete to generate zk proofs cheaply.



Based on Electric Capital’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/electric-capital-report-solana-developers">recent developer report</a>, there are 2,054 monthly active developers working in zk. The use of zk has seen tremendous growth, with zk contract deployments growing from 40 to 639 today over the last four years.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXca-d9z7BtxsWIVIoK-CZxGGbUF5uti2G0gZEQPnkk5RLxJtTsjbB0unFNqhKhD2YYqKSoLJ93FhLX48Gr-E3QptOVM6Us1cPNvghdZL_m-lLbDZHhQe8Y-YKHZhexXEyS3iVlh3A?key=usYGxGdO1mGcCs1Nub8LIt2t" alt=""/></figure>



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Scroll announces OpenVM, a new zkVM

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I am once again asking: Could we see a Santa Rally?&nbsp;



Kaiko analysts reckon there’s a chance, though they don’t think it’s worth getting your hopes up for bitcoin at $120,000 by year-end (sad).&nbsp;



The options data, as seen below, looks promising for a bullish December finale. There are far more calls than puts.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcywH7K9isWTMLGq3QZo9mz0ZT4iZRLgkLoOZQAFvAvyxLro_oMNUUkNyihVMxZmixzyN5MMRtBKAC-SbtVMpJSl1RMaSQ4088VmaxIJYrAFYWuKoaH56sHOA-dCv5xn47lMrq8UA?key=LFUO1mtb-VM4nCoBe81Q3cDs" alt=""/></figure>



However, analysts think that any rally may be distributed across the ecosystem, with other coins getting a boost.&nbsp;



“Any upcoming rallies will likely be much broader than last year. Since the election smaller layer-1 coins have been outperforming BTC and ETH as traders repricing risk amid regulatory shifts in the US,” the analysts wrote.



Oh, and any Santa Rally we see may not follow the traditional timeline of a rally (meaning that it occurs in the last five days of the year into the first two days of the new year). Let’s just hope Santa and his elves don’t have to work too much harder for everyone’s bags, I guess.&nbsp;



This just underpins what we’ve been hearing from analysts and folks around crypto, which is that they expect crypto to come out looking strong in the beginning half of next year. In <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/8def344e-bc0c-11ef-8858-bb3f77ca0270">this week’s Empire pod</a>, Daniel Matuszewski of CMS Holdings and Roshun Patel from Hack both carried a bullish tone.&nbsp;



Patel, in particular, thinks that there could be big ETF inflows in January but expects seasonality to be a factor once we inch towards the summer.&nbsp;



“I think as you go into March or May, you can maybe think a little bit more about portfolio rebalancing, but for now it&#8217;s like. It feels pretty healthy,” he told Jason Yanowitz.&nbsp;



On the other hand, Matuszewski said that altcoins could have a similar market cycle to what we’ve seen in the past. However, he still expects “crazy swings” from the likes of memecoins and AI chatbot tokens.&nbsp;If I’m being honest, I’d be more afraid if both memecoins and AI chatbots weren’t volatile.



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A bullish December rally could still be in the books

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No question that HYPE is now technically the largest airdrop in crypto history, at least in terms of paper value.



Hyperliquid’s new coin could soon also be the most valuable airdropped token to date.



The team behind the popular perps-DEX-slash-layer-1 initially designated 310 million tokens for the airdrop, with more than 94,000 addresses eligible.



So far, about 270.94 million HYPE has been claimed, per this <a href="https://data.asxn.xyz/dashboard/hype">dashboard</a> from ASXN, equivalent to ~87% of the total.



At current prices, the HYPE sent out would fetch almost $7.6 billion altogether.&nbsp;



That officially beats Uniswap’s UNI distribution from September 2020, which until now was generally considered crypto’s biggest airdrop.



At UNI’s peak in May 2021, the paper value of the airdrop <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/biggest-crypto-airdrops">surpassed</a> $6.4 billion, more than a billion less than the current value of HYPE’s.



UNI’s airdrop was still larger in scope. Tokens were initially sent to more than a quarter of a million addresses that had, at some point, used the DEX.&nbsp;



Almost 94% of those addresses netted under 412 tokens, which was only slightly above the minimum allotment of 400 UNI (now worth $6,500).&nbsp;



According to a Dune <a href="https://dune.com/blog/uni-airdrop-analysis">analysis</a>, more than 250 addresses — liquidity whales, $SOCKS holders and power users — had meanwhile received an eye-twitching 250,000 UNI ($4 million at current prices).



Two years later, 93% of recipients had dumped all their tokens. At that point, only 2% were still holding and only 1% had increased their position.



It’s been less than three weeks since the HYPE airdrop, so it’s too early to say whether its token generation event will be any stickier.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdtdx6x0dNLU5uGlaAvsaJIcT7kp5M9hI-VEbSKRj3lWWSkPdgOqUyuFdiWWPPKQWTnTVZUgjarJlT-Me68DSA0xCrECU90oNJgIcDO-KwhZDBQkzl_UH_tQHcpgI3jZm8HHh9CoQ?key=LFUO1mtb-VM4nCoBe81Q3cDs" alt=""/></figure>



HYPE has, however, only gone up since, tripling from $3.81 to $28 as of this morning.&nbsp;



That gives HYPE a market cap of $9 billion — only 9% short of UNI — and a fully diluted value of $27 billion.



Unlike the UNI airdrop, almost 12% of HYPE recipients received between 5,000 and 10,000 tokens, now worth $140,000 and $280,000, respectively.&nbsp;



4.3% were in the top bracket, which received 10,000 tokens or more, while 57% found themselves in the lowest tranche of up to 100 HYPE ($2,800).



Still, as Hyperliquid’s TVL grows beyond $3.2 billion (now <a href="https://defillama.com/chains">eighth</a> behind Arbitrum and ahead of Sui), some airdrop recipients do appear to have sold their stash.



Earlier today, 182 of the top 500 addresses to receive the airdrop no longer held any tokens at all, according to ASXN data. That includes addresses that netted between 1.95 million ($44.6 million) and just under 100,000 HYPE ($2.8 million).&nbsp;



Dozens of others are now holding up to 75% fewer tokens, although it’s unclear whether they’ve actually sold, as they may have simply moved their tokens to another address, or otherwise deposited them to a supporting exchange.



At the same time, 58 of the top 500 (around 11%) have added to their holdings since the airdrop.



Something tells me many more — especially those who didn’t receive the airdrop — are now waiting for a dip.



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Hyperliquid could have the most valuable airdrop ever

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Eliza Labs, the team behind the ai16z AI agent platform, struck a research partnership deal with Stanford University’s Future of Digital Currency Initiative, Eliza Labs announced this morning.&nbsp;&nbsp;



For the past two months, so-called <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ai-agents-nothing-new">AI agents</a> that generally attach chat bots to memecoins have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-bots-solana-memecoin-trading">raced</a> to hundreds of millions in market capitalization, including ai16z. By funding a lab at Stanford, ai16z is trying to do what all successful memecoin-linked projects have to do — keep the joke going.



“This is the funniest possible thing,” Shaw, Eliza Labs’ anonymous founder, told me on a call after I said I found the memecoin project and research university pairing amusing. “If I could think of the most entertaining thing that we could do, it would definitely be to start a lab at Stanford.”



Eliza Labs is the entity behind ai16z, which is a DAO whose assets are set to be traded by an autonomous AI bot, jokingly named Marc AIndreessen after the real a16z co-founder. The AI version of Marc Andreessen is built using the Eliza framework, which lets agents interact on social media, surf the web and trade tokens. This AI agent technology is buzzy at the moment: ai16z’s GitHub repository has already been forked some 1,400 times.



Once the platform is public, AI Marc will create a so-called marketplace of trust where he ranks DAO members based on how good their advice is.&nbsp;



Stanford’s Future of Digital Currency Initiative brings a number of Stanford professors together to produce crypto-adjacent research and “promote the success of public and private digital currencies and their many use cases.” The research lab is funded by crypto industry members like Eliza Labs, who must pay either $250,000 for a Tier 1 membership or $75,000 for a Tier 2 membership.&nbsp;



Snickerdoodle CEO Jonathan Padilla, a FDCI adviser who co-founded the lab, said Eliza Labs gave Stanford a “larger grant” that exceeded $250,000, though he declined to give an exact number. With its associated ai16z token trading at a market capitalization of over $800 million, Eliza Labs was evidently able to foot the bill.&nbsp;



Stanford researchers will develop trust mechanisms for AI agents, which are known to hallucinate at times, and investigate how agents can coordinate with and govern each other.&nbsp;



Stanford professors David Mazières and Dan Boneh will lead the lab alongside a cohort of graduate student researchers, Padilla added.



“At FDCI, we&#8217;ve been working on technology that vastly increases the [computational] power of blockchains. AI16Z/Eliza is at the cutting edge of applying AI agents to financial problems. We are excited at the possibilities of increasing the onchain computational power available to their applications,” Mazières said in a message to Blockworks.



Eliza Labs’ Stanford partnership didn’t come cheap, but with the AI agent space currently locked in an arms race for attention, Shaw and the rest of the DAO’s leadership evidently found the partnership worthwhile. The founder also hopes the partnership will produce some good science.



“We’re looking for Ph.D’s to blow our minds and expand the realm of what’s possible with the technology that we’re unlocking,” Shaw said.



Updated Dec. 16, 2024 at 5:29 pm ET: Added comment from Prof. Mazières.



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Stanford lab partners with team behind ‘ai16z’ AI agent project

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2025 is fast approaching and industry commentators are busy offering their two satoshis on what’s to come.&nbsp;



With price predictions aplenty as bitcoin posts new all-time highs, we’ll stray away from those this time.



One <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-coin-price-targets">stock price expectation</a>: Per Bitwise, Coinbase (~$324 Monday midday) will hit $700 as it surpasses Charles Schwab as “the most valuable brokerage in the world.”



The investment firm correctly <a href="https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025">predicted</a> MicroStrategy’s <a href="https://x.com/strack_ben/status/1867758690608279661">addition</a> to the Nasdaq 100 index (announced Friday night) and believes COIN will join the S&amp;P 500 next year.



BLOK portfolio manager Dan Weiskopf told me he thinks MSTR’s ascent to that index in 2025 might be “a reach.” Still, it’s only a matter of time, he says.



Weiskopf and the Amplify ETFs team <a href="https://blog.amplifyetfs.com/blok/blok-chain-monthly-commentary-december-2024?utm_campaign=BLOK&amp;utm_content=318841101&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;hss_channel=tw-4756273994">detailed</a> a “fun hypothetical” (should BTC move north of $200k) that MSTR could one day have a larger weighting in the S&amp;P 500 than Bank of America.&nbsp;



Moving on, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote that President-elect Trump’s appointments — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-commerce-dept-leader">Howard Lutnick</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-picks-crypto-czar">David Sacks</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-nominates-new-sec-chair">Paul Atkins</a>, etc. — signal “the start of a policy framework that positions bitcoin as a strategic asset.”&nbsp;



What they really mean: the national bitcoin reserve Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">floated</a> earlier this year.



When asked about a US crypto reserve materializing, Trump himself told market prognosticator Jim Cramer, “Yeah, I think so.” He added: “We’re going to do something great with crypto. …Others are embracing it and we want to be the head.”



With more <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/company-treasuries-btc-reserve-asset">companies holding BTC</a>, bitcoin yielding strategies could become “a new corporate finance norm,” the CoinShares team <a href="https://coinshares.com/fr/resources/research/2025-outlook/">posed</a>.&nbsp;



More on the regulations/policy front: Bitwise is forecasting the US Department of Labor to relax its <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ebsa/employers-and-advisers/plan-administration-and-compliance/compliance-assistance-releases/2022-01">guidance</a> against crypto in 401(k) plans in 2025. This would fit the flood-of-new-buyers narrative spurred by crypto-friendly regulation, with some <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-exposure-pensions-endowments">pension funds</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/advisers-bitcoin-etfs-client-portfolios">RIAs</a> already making moves.&nbsp;



A <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-gensler-sec-overturn-sab-121">repeal of SAB 121</a> (a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-passes-resolution-to-overturn-sab121">bipartisan effort</a> blocked by President Joe Biden) might not even be necessary in 2025. Ava Labs deputy general counsel Wee Ming Choon told me he believes that particular bulletin will be an easy one for a new SEC administration to rescind (more thoughts from Choon are coming in a future Forward Guidance edition).&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Let’s conclude with a shared prediction from Bitwise and VanEck: The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tokenization-updates-rwa-summit">tokenized RWA space</a> will surpass the $50 billion mark.&nbsp;Securitize’s Eric Ervin said during a <a href="https://blockworks.co/recordings?session=195332">panel</a> I moderated at <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/permissionless">Permissionless</a> in October that he thinks BlackRock’s tokenized fund BUIDL, backed by US Treasurys, could grow to $50b on its own in the next few years.



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