ZetaChain

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Truth Arts — formerly known as Truth Labs, the team behind the 2022 Goblintown Ethereum NFT collection — has released NFT “licenses” inspired by driver’s licenses.



To become eligible to mint a Goblintown license, aspiring drivers had to wait for a seemingly endless amount of time with no end in sight in a DMV. In this case, the wait was at the Goblintown DMV, which was a webpage with a DMV simulator. You took a number, waited, waited some more, and ultimately submitted your email address to the team. (You also need to create a DYLI account with that same email address to claim your license.)



When I stumbled upon the DMV simulator shortly after it launched April 1, I didn’t know what the endgame was, but I figured it would probably end in some exclusive reward. I clicked on it to check it out.&nbsp;



I took a number, saw the depressing knowledge of a long wait and some extremely high numbers (like 99,999), and gave up after about 30 seconds.



I had work to do, okay?&nbsp;



Truth CEO and cofounder Alexander Taub said in a <a href="https://x.com/ajt/status/1907117106295967809">post</a> that wait times were anywhere from one to five hours per customer.



The Goblintown DMV is now closed. If you didn’t get the chance to pass idle hours waiting, the NFTs can be bought on secondary marketplaces.



The “license” NFTs can be claimed until this Friday, April 11, according to an X <a href="https://x.com/goblintown/status/1910041909483163757">post</a>. They’re minting on the Abstract blockchain. There are six possible character designs: “pumplescroob,” “lord buttbat,” “jug,” “gromblar,” “urki,” and “gobbie.”&nbsp;



When asked why the Goblintown team chose Abstract for its latest NFTs, Taub told Blockworks via email: “We are big fans and friends of Luca, Pudgy Penguins, and the Abstract team. The licenses were first and foremost something that we wanted people to be able to physically redeem (if they choose to),” he said, adding: “We are also building more things for Abstract, this just happened to leapfrog those things.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf3bPtvLx5P55AOt_Ee1r95vlmBwApcvVAOD6gIhtrKmj-5MVCtoQBnv_90eOOvIkba0I5kKjF3aB9RcRDQn1utjtR0YBsvM1QieM0cMUZ4aD_IGUfgORZWqqxrxmi8HQ5KEiFa4w?key=_wpzkD5qD2jCe8WvVXiLWgnj" alt=""/></figure>



The NFTs can be “burned,” or removed from the blockchain permanently, in exchange for real-life physical versions of the licenses.



The licenses are thematically tied to the upcoming Goblintown racing game, <a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/3417510/Goblintown_Really_Hard_Driving_Game/#:~:text=Goblintown%3A%20Really%20Hard%20Driving%20Game%20on%20Steam&amp;text=Do%20you%20have%20the%20skill,don't%20forget%20to%20SCREAM!">Goblintown: Really Hard Driving Game</a>, which was announced back in February.&nbsp;



It’s technically not a crypto game, though. The game won’t require any NFTs to play, but it won’t be free-to-play, either (exact pricing is TBD).



“This game is very purposefully a non-Web3 game. The first reason is that you cannot have anything crypto- or token-related and be in good standing on Steam, which is where we will be first distributing the game. This is the number one marketplace for indie games, so that made the decision for us,” Taub explained.



“The second reason is we wanted to make a game that is fun and entertaining and something people WANT to play, not because they might make money or speculate on it. We are building an entertainment and technology company, and creating entertaining games is something we need to deliver on outside of speculative digital assets. So the game has IP origins with Goblintown and our original digital collection, but it is our attempt to build ourselves into a character IP brand,” the CEO continued.



On April 20, Goblintown is <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/goblintown-hosts-high-stakes-gaming-challenge-in-nyc--beat-the-really-hard-driving-game-win-10-000--302422857.html#:~:text=Launching%20Sunday%2C%20April%2020%2C%202025,first%20look%20at%20the%20challenge.">hosting</a> an IRL event in New York City where invitees can try to beat the game for $10,000 in cash.



The game will also be on offer IRL at Pax East in Boston next month and at DreamHack in Dallas at the end of next month. At all of these events, those with NFT licenses will be able to cut the line to play the game.



“We figure you waited at the digital DMV for a minimum of an hour (to 5 hours!), so we can let you skip the line. In the future, we might come up with more fun little things, but tying it to the actual in-game is not something we plan to do,” Taub told Blockworks.



Like Really Hard Driving Game’s title suggests, it’s intended to be very difficult to play.



“This isn&#8217;t just about skill — it&#8217;s about nerves, instinct, and maybe a little bit of chaos. Goblintown has always thrived on unpredictability, and this challenge is no exception,” Taub said in a press release.



Goblintown: Really Hard Driving Game has echoes of Yuga Labs’ Dookey Dash, which was a difficult driving game with obstacles that was released for a limited time beginning in January 2023.&nbsp;



The original Dookey Dash was also for degens and competitive gamers, but it required a “Sewer Pass” NFT to access the game. The winning Dookey Dash key ultimately sold for $1.6 million in February 2023. In September 2024, Yuga Labs released a free-to-play, newer version of the game.



Goblintown’s Really Hard Driving Game will launch before the end of this month, Taub confirmed to Blockworks.



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Goblintown launches driver’s license NFTs ahead of ‘Really Hard Driving Game’ release

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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What happens when a stablecoin isn’t stable, and the founder’s response is “no crying in the stablecoin casino”?



The vibes in the Synthetix and Infinex Discords are down bad. So is <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/susd">sUSD</a>, the Synthetix-native stablecoin, which dropped below $1 in March, but today has slipped dramatically below $0.90 — hitting a low (so far) of about $0.835.



While founder Kain Warwick insists that this is temporary and that the overcollateralized stablecoin is fundamentally safe, the community’s patience is wearing thin. So is its trust.



The root of the problem? The 420 pool, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/synthetix-staking-stablecoin-fix">an upgrade</a> that made sUSD more capital-efficient by letting a pooled SNX staking system mint sUSD at a lower 200% collateralization ratio. In the process, it also forgave $60m in staker debt over 12 months — removing the reflexive peg defense that previously incentivized stakers to buy discounted sUSD to repay debt. That incentive is now gone. And so is the peg.



While the protocol hasn’t sold sUSD, according to Warwick, the new issuance mechanics have flooded liquidity pools, skewing Curve’s sUSD stableswap pools 90%+ toward sUSD. Users trying to exit are getting crushed. One posted a screenshot showing a USDC/sUSD LP with literally 0% USDC remaining.



There are about 51 million sUSD in circulation between Ethereum mainnet and Optimism, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/usd-stablecoin">according</a> to CoinGecko.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/lightspeed/1bd088c0-3f45-11ef-8d0e-33cba733fb4d">Infinex</a>, the frontend product meant to onboard normies, hasn’t helped. It launched an incentive campaign to hold sUSD in the Infinex wallet <a href="https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/wednesday-january-15">not long before</a> the depeg, which has been renewed twice. Now Infinex <a href="https://blog.synthetix.io/collectsnx-rewards-on-infinex/">wants</a> people to stack SNX to farm even more rewards. This has users fuming.



“You guys promote sUSD through campaigns, you take responsibility,” wrote one user on the <a href="http://discord.gg/infinex">Infinex Discord</a>.



“Liquidate the collateral and get out of the damn stablecoin business,” wrote another on the <a href="http://discord.gg/synthetix">Synthetix Discord</a>.



Kain’s replies? A mix of sarcasm and stoicism.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe9AkEyW9xTAeKkvho6ezcBXJ1ily5P6203AIra3rTKhPof126metYJXe811E4EaGXup-lJJXU22nVLpzv_XyK_2X-ZCWtorYzXZ88QaIxqTN7fTHsE9iWQaST-cn4418WqUmeOoQ?key=xDlpETItJAmhbYXrOPgoIiCW" alt=""/></figure>



Fair or not, it’s a tough look as users are down 13% on what was marketed as a stable asset.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">So…what now?</h2>



If you bought sUSD for yield expecting stability, you’re in damage-control mode.



Short-term: The peg won’t snap back quickly. No active treasury buybacks, no peg-stabilizing module yet.



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Exit now if you need capital or can’t stomach further drawdown, or</li>



<li>Hold and wait if you believe the peg will recover to $0.95+ via incentives, integrations or treasury action.</li>
</ol>



Or maybe you’re considering buying now, fancying yourself a distressed asset investor.



This is obviously a speculative trade, not a passive stablecoin yield play. A bet on recovery assumes:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>SNX price holds or rebounds (key to overcollateralization premise).</li>



<li>The team executes on liquidity and incentives.</li>



<li>The peg restoration becomes a top short-term priority.</li>
</ul>



A slow grind back to $0.99 is plausible — but so is more chop around $0.85–$0.90 if treasury action lags.



While sUSD isn’t <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/terra">Terra</a>, it’s showing some of the same reflexive fragility. Overcollateralization only helps if the market believes it. Right now, confidence is depegged about as much as price is, and until that’s restored, the status quo will remain.



The “s” in sUSD may really stand for “Synthetix,” but this week, it sure feels more like it stands for “suspect” or “suffering.”



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Synthetix’s sUSD stablecoin sees continued depeg to $0.86

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Bitcoin’s first Ponzi scheme was nothing special — but it was early.



After the 1906 inception of the international reply coupon, it took 14 years for Charles Ponzi to come along with his <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/in-ponzi-we-trust-64016168/">legendary</a> scheme, which he peddled across Boston society to the tune of $20 million at the time ($319 million in today’s money).



Meanwhile, it only took Trendon Shavers, aka Pirateat40, less than three years to pull off something similar on the Bitcoin blockchain: Bitcoin Savings &amp; Trust.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">On This Day – Bitcoin Savings &amp; Trust&nbsp;</h2>



Shavers originally launched the scheme as First Pirate Savings &amp; Trust in November 2011, having cultivated an online persona of a savvy over-the-counter bitcoin trader in IRC channels and on Bitcointalk.



Bitcoin had opened the year at $0.30, hit $30 in June, and had since settled at around $3. Shavers’ supposed OTC desk was now running dry, with requests for more coins only “getting larger and more frequent.”&nbsp;



“Over the last few months I have been selling BTC to a group of local people,” Shavers wrote in his launch <a href="https://pastebin.com/yH0jr6KY">post</a>. “Now this is a ‘don&#8217;t ask don&#8217;t tell&#8217; group of people, so I can&#8217;t tell you exactly where and to whom the coins ultimately end up with, but so far it&#8217;s been pretty painless.”



To help source liquidity, he devised two ways to inspire early adopters to send him their bitcoin, starting at a minimum of 50 BTC ($150 then, $4 million now).



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The “on-demand” tier would pay a 3.5% fee for filling buy orders over what the desk has available.</li>



<li>The “storage” tier would pay 1% per day for bitcoin sent to First Pirate Savings &amp; Trust, with a promise that “you can withdraw your balance at any time.”</li>
</ul>



As was the case with the original Ponzi scheme, initial inflows were rather small, only $60,000 in total over the first two months.&nbsp;



But after rebranding it to “Bitcoin Savings &amp; Trust” on this day in 2012 (with a new website) Shavers’ wallets saw that much on an average day, despite repeated warnings of the community, including <a href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/ponzi-schemes-the-danger-of-high-interest-savings-funds-1338461999">from</a> Vitalik Buterin.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcVSRh9xXbGUjnpZ8nUZKHr8BqN4bpwt-Pg2qCs4Lxmu6UsQVdHYSyYDygREXaEff6H2bBuJlPQw_wZd72pVBvWkvYT2QpZcpGMn00SGIy2jS1WEb0D6L8sWakXDRtnMLYPpBsN?key=xm2WtSBqbG4DoznrxKgR4WvZ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin’s push to $15 was interrupted by Bitcoin Savings &amp; Trust’s sudden closure, but BTC quickly rebounded.</figcaption></figure>



Just like the real Charles Ponzi almost a century earlier, Shavers never really did any of what he said. To go back in time a bit: Ponzi had promised up to 100% returns to investors who’d backed his wacky plan to arbitrage postage stamps between Italy, where they were cheap in the wake of World War I, and the US, where they were still expensive.



Ponzi couldn’t actually redeem his stamps for cash, or ship enough of them from Europe in any case. Still, he easily paid out interest with the waves of fresh capital, splitting the difference with a mansion, luxury car and a honeymoon vacation. Ponzi was sentenced to five years in prison.



Similarly, Shavers was simply selling coins to cover rent, car payments, shopping and casino gambling. Both plans were over and done in under 12 months.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdgGVAZESOhrEeoQfAYeJIfmlI6CeFPdP09OBF4jHYJiBuHdeUSpfU1p3JVVvmEUWjVGEQ5CEWTlRCwyMnpsJRk96bvDPWwt0oa15wQW7p89qyeGzxOvLhBKmA57lbhKu5e7kDmrA?key=xm2WtSBqbG4DoznrxKgR4WvZ" alt=""/></figure>



Shavers’ username is a reference to a Jimmy Buffett song, “A Pirate Looks at 40,” which laments about a man born too late in history to get away with adventurous crimes.



The Feds calculated that Shavers, drawing from about 100 investors, had siphoned 193,000 BTC for himself, worth up to $1.5 million back then and $16 billion today (coincidentally similar to the BTC supposedly held by the US government). He was <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/lawyer-reveals-details-about-the-man-behind-bitcoins-45-million-ponzi-scheme/">fined</a> $40 million and sentenced to 18 months in prison.



Look onchain and you can still spot the robbing of Bob to pay Alice: On every other day, total flows for Shavers’ wallets would be divided fairly evenly between inflows and outflows. Coins in from new investors, coins out to older ones.



And you can still see almost 1.18 million BTC flowing through wallets linked to Bitcoin Savings &amp; Trust in its short history — the equivalent of around 10% of the entire circulating supply at the time.



At risk of searching for a silver lining in the fraud, there’s this: Whereas actual physical records of Charles Ponzi’s scheme are presumably long gone, we’ll at least forever have a perfect account of Bitcoin’s first-ever imitation.



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Bitcoin’s first Ponzi scheme would be worth $16B today

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Agora CEO and co-founder Nick van Eck is pretty realistic about where the space stands right now. 



Clearly, there are plenty of reasons to maintain a bullish attitude. But he cautioned folks to rethink the time horizons when it comes to adoption.&nbsp;



The CFOs and CEOs of large US corporations aren’t necessarily aware of the developments in crypto, even when it comes to something like stablecoins. Van Eck believes we’re looking at a much longer time horizon for adoption — three to four years — versus the optimistic outlook of one to two years.&nbsp;



Van Eck told me he’s having plenty of conversations with folks in the TradFi space — including some of the largest hedge funds in the US — and that there’s still a lack of understanding when it comes to the role that stablecoins play.&nbsp;



“We live in our own bubble in crypto…We think everything that&#8217;s going on…everyone else in the world is aware of [it], right?” But that’s not the case.&nbsp;



The real curve we have to tackle is educational. We’re in the early innings here, and that’s the big hurdle now that the regulatory picture is so much better for crypto.&nbsp;



However, once people understand, van Eck is pretty bullish on the stablecoin sector taking off in four to ten years.



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Stablecoin adoption is still 3 to 4 years away: van Eck

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We’re thinking about stablecoin classification all wrong, Agora CEO Nick van Eck told me.&nbsp;



It’s easy to lump all of the stablecoins into one single bucket, but the reality is that the offerings are quickly becoming more unique and different as the space matures.&nbsp;



A lot of stablecoins are “very different, and have very different user profiles,” which means they “ultimately don’t even end up competing.”



“Someone who is looking to use USDe as a form of collateral is 95% of the time probably not the same user of AUSD or USDC. Maybe they&#8217;ll use it for trading, but [if]… you want to buy a treasury bill or a treasury bond, you don&#8217;t buy a corporate bond, right?”



You have centralized high-trust stablecoins, which include Agora or Circle. Then there’s centralized opaque, which would be Tether. The difference between the two is the amount of transparency offered, but both categories are focused on the global monetary network perspective.



Another is “centralized captive distribution,” which includes gaming companies or banks like Bank of America (CEO Brian Moynihan previously <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/02/26/bank-of-america-ceo-says-stablecoins-coming-very-soon-cfo/">teased</a> that the bank’s interested in such an offering). The idea here is that companies in this category are more interested in keeping their stablecoin offering within their business rather than expanding globally, van Eck explained.&nbsp;



The fourth and final one is decentralized stablecoins. This broader category captures the likes of Ethena, which van Eck praised as a “very good operator,” and some of the more experimental forays into stablecoins.&nbsp;



Agora’s customer base, van Eck noted, is usually made up of folks just coming into crypto, not more seasoned people who want to make a return on their collateral.



The team aims to create a global stablecoin network.&nbsp;



“We see a world where AUSD is traded on every single exchange and has global liquidity,” he told me. This opens the door for folks to build on top of Agora and “tap into our tooling and cross-chain infrastructure, our centralized exchange infrastructure, our FX on and off ramps.”



As lawmakers mull and vote on stablecoin legislation, van Eck is excited about what it means for the space. While he told me never say never when it comes to yield-bearing stablecoins — that’s not going to be a priority for Agora.&nbsp;



“From day one, I was very much expecting that the US government and the SEC would not allow interest-bearing stablecoins, which is why we designed our model as one-to-one, where we just share underlying economics with the businesses, versus it being natively yield-bearing.”



No skin off of Agora’s back, especially since it seems lawmakers aren’t too keen on yield-bearing stablecoins, either.



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Agora CEO has 4 stablecoin classifications

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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We&#8217;ve got a fresh market <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/flashnotes/solana-march-2025-update">update from Blockworks Research</a>, and if it makes anything clear, it&#8217;s this: March was not kind to Solana.



Revenue cratered 87% from January&#8217;s all-time high, DEX volumes dropped 74%, and SIMD 228 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/what-simd-0228-failing-means-for-solana">failed to pass</a>.&nbsp;



SIMD 228&#8217;s loss wasn&#8217;t due to a lack of effort. The proposal sparked the highest stake participation of any vote in Solana&#8217;s history (74.3%). It drew input from institutional players like Coinbase, Kraken and Bybit for the first time.



And while small validators mostly opposed it, native builders like Helius, Jupiter and Jito overwhelmingly supported the change; a sort of philosophical split between those extracting yield today and those betting on Solana&#8217;s long-term sustainability.&nbsp;



Small validators (s &lt; 0.05%) voted “No” by a wide margin. Large ones (0.5% to 1.0%) were 85% in favor. Strategic abstention became a weapon: Voting “No” counted toward quorum, so many opponents waited until the last minute, hoping the vote would fail without their input.



SIMD 123, which introduces protocol-level revenue sharing, did succeed, though, showing validators are open to changes that increase optionality rather than those which remove incentives outright. SIMD 248, proposing TPU feedback to reduce spam and improve UX, and SIMD 268, which raises the CPI nesting limit to deepen composability, are both in discussion.



Turning to DeFi, Solana apps pulled in $131m in revenue, maintaining their lead across all chains and setting a record-high revenue-to-REV ratio of 1.84. Institutional momentum hasn&#8217;t disappeared. SOL&#8217;s open interest in CEXs is near all-time highs. CME launched SOL futures in March, which are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cme-planned-solana-futures">often a prelude</a> to a spot ETF. Meanwhile, bridge inflows from other ecosystems reached $158m despite a market-wide cooldown.



Takeaway: March was painful, yes. But also a pressure test — one Solana didn&#8217;t fail. Engagement is up, institutional interest is sticky, and apps are still building. If this is what a lousy month looks like, the ecosystem is in far better shape than the charts suggest. SOL prices remain volatile at publication time, hovering around $118.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
</ul>

Solana shrugs off a bearish March

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Investors may still be recovering from tariff policy whiplash, but the world keeps spinning.&nbsp;



Representatives on the House Financial Service’s Digital Assets Subcommittee met today for a hearing on US crypto policy. That topic may not be top of the news cycle, but is still big in Washington.&nbsp;



Rep. Brad Sherman from California, who has long been skeptical of any legislation deemed “pro crypto,” had an interesting take. “New coins” will overtake “old coins,” he said, and he’s all for new coins. 



We aren’t sure at all what he means here, but we think he’s saying he’d like to see some disruption in the crypto space. 



The hearing comes after six Financial Services Committee Democrats voted to advance the House’s STABLE Act last week. The legislation is similar to the GENIUS Act <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-stablecoin-bill">in the Senate </a>(which also received bipartisan support), but the House’s version gives more power to state regulators to oversee issuers.&nbsp;



The next step for both bills will be a full floor vote. Should the trade war continue to escalate, we expect crypto legislation will move to the back burner. Still, insiders on the Hill tell us stablecoin legislation should be the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-top-priority">first crypto measure</a> to pass. Up next is market structure, which has the industry much more divided.&nbsp;



Meanwhile, in the Senate, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paul-atkins-sec-chair-hearing">Paul Atkins’ nomination</a> to the SEC today passed the cloture vote, 51-45. The final vote could be scheduled as soon as this evening.&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
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Congress keeps talking crypto amid trade war shifts

US equities and cryptocurrencies surged Wednesday after President Trump issued a stark reversal on tariff policies.&nbsp;



The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2,600 points Wednesday afternoon while the S&amp;P 500 surged 9.1%, marking the biggest intraday rally for both indexes in five years.&nbsp;



The Nasdaq Composite rallied almost 12%, a daily gain not seen since 2008. Bitcoin and ethereum gained as much as 6% and 11%, respectively.&nbsp;



The moves followed Trump’s announcement that reciprocal tariffs on all countries except for China will be delayed for 90 days. He also said the levy on Chinese imports will be raised from 104%, which took effect just after midnight, to 125%.&nbsp;



Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs on all countries other than China will remain at 10% in the interim.&nbsp;



The 10-year Treasury yield, which spiked to 4.51% overnight, also declined to 4.3% following the White House’s announcement.&nbsp;



The cooling follows a better-than-anticipated 10-year auction Wednesday, indicating that demand remains high. Indirect bidders, which represent an imperfect proxy for foreign buyers, made up about 88% of accepted bids.&nbsp;



Wednesday’s changes marked a change from the White House’s previous stance on tariffs. Since last week, the administration’s insisted that the new “Liberation Day” tariffs would proceed as scheduled.&nbsp;



Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday maintained that “there is no postponing.” Also on Sunday, Peter Navarro, White House senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, said “this is not a negotiation” when asked about potentially adjusting tariffs.



While investors breathe a sigh of relief, though, the volatility is far from over. Markets now face another three months of uncertainty about where tariffs will land. Still, analysts’ general outlook has improved.&nbsp;



Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok and Goldman Sachs analysts both rescinded their forecasts for a 2025 recession Wednesday afternoon.



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US stocks, cryptocurrencies surge on tariff reversal

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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You know what the stock market is doing broadly. And how BTC has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-volatility-this-week-stocks">trended lower</a>, too. 



But what about crypto equities — particularly the one many deem to be the purest of them all?



Coinbase’s stock price hovered around $165 at 1:30 pm ET — down 35.6% year to date. That’s worse than BTC and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which have decreased 13.6% and 15.2%, respectively, since the start of 2025.



Still, Cantor Fitzgerald kicked off its coverage of Coinbase by giving the crypto exchange’s shares a buy rating and a $245 price target.



“We expect we will soon see a ‘ChatGPT’ moment when it comes to Web3, and there is, in our view, no better way to play this dynamic than COIN given it has its hands in virtually every aspect of the crypto ecosystem,” Cantor Fitzgerald analysts wrote in a Tuesday note.&nbsp;



They highlight the “robust” user growth on Coinbase’s layer-2, Base. And the potential for Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue ($910 million in 2024) to grow as stablecoins have a chance to displace traditional cross-border payment rails.&nbsp;



“As such, we expect COIN&#8217;s business to be perceived less as a cyclical trading platform and more as a mission-critical infrastructure layer of the crypto economy,” the analysts wrote.



Morningstar analyst Michael Miller’s current fair value estimate for COIN remains at $170. He <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-q4-earnings">said in February</a> he believed the company’s shares were “overvalued.” When I connected with Miller this morning, he said he now sees the stock as “slightly undervalued.”



“The obvious caveat here is that Coinbase&#8217;s business remains heavily exposed to cryptocurrency valuations,” Miller noted. “It has significant influence on their trading revenue and a direct impact on their custody and staking revenue, as those segments generate revenue based on assets held.”



As for other stocks tied to crypto, Strategy (MSTR) and Marathon Digital (MARA) are down 9.3% and 33.2% year to date. Galaxy Digital, which we noted yesterday <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/galaxy-sec-listing-nasdaq-ipo-market-crypto">could go public</a> in the US next month, is down 48%.



Meanwhile, the share price of Robinhood, which saw crypto revenue of $358 million in Q4 2024, is right about where it was at the year’s start.



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The outlook for COIN as macro uncertainty persists

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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As equities posted a modest rebound, it was US Treasury markets that had Wall Street worried this morning.&nbsp;



The 10-year yield climbed above 4.51% around midnight, just as President Trump’s 104% tariff against Chinese imports went into effect. The question on everyone’s mind now is why.&nbsp;



I know I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/treasury-yields-remain-elevated-as-stocks-waver">wrote yesterday</a> that foreign bond holders could be selling, and this is still a possibility. But the overnight moves point to a perhaps more frightening reality: The basis trade is unwinding.&nbsp;



Hedge funds frequently employ a Treasury basis trade strategy. It’s an arbitrage trade that looks to exploit the tiny price differences between Treasurys and futures. It’s low-risk and low-reward, but huge when leveraged — so funds typically borrow to fund these trades and multiply their bets.



Mass selling causes Treasury yields to spike, like we saw last night. The lower the price falls (remember Treasury prices and yields are inversely correlated), the more margin calls we see, and the more selling we see to meet those calls. Plus, liquidity evaporates when the number of sellers is vastly greater than buyers. 



“If it’s not a case of selling winners to pay up margin elsewhere, then maybe it’s a market bracing for a deep recession that would start with a 7% deficit that will then only get worse,” Pepperstone research strategist Michael Brown said. “I’m honestly not sure which of those scenarios is worse.”



So either way — bad. As Joseph Wang <a href="https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1909848492010266921">said</a>: “This might become a legitimate market functioning issue.” 



We saw an unwinding in 2020. Yield on the 10-year went from a record low of 0.3% to 1.2% in a matter of days in March 2020. The Fed intervened with quantitative easing on March 23, 2020, and by the end of the month the 10-year yield had retreated back to around 0.7%.&nbsp;



There is a little bit of good news, though: The Treasury’s <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20250409_2.pdf">10-year auction</a> today was strong. Indirect bidders, which represent an imperfect proxy for foreign buyers, made up about 88% of accepted bids (higher than the average).&nbsp;



In yesterday’s <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/A_20250403_6.pdf">three-year auction</a>, 73% went to indirect bidders. Direct bidders however were down 45% from January.&nbsp;&nbsp;



We don’t know exactly who is selling, which is why you’ve seen a lot of speculation around what’s fueling the selloff in Treasurys (including in this newsletter). The Treasury reports foreign holder data monthly, but there’s a six-week lag. We won’t get February’s holdings until next week.&nbsp;



We also don’t know what the Fed will do. Odds of an interest rate cut in May actually decreased today, hovering around 38% after spiking to 45% yesterday, per CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a>.&nbsp;



You’ll be the first to hear, though, when we have some answers. 



In the meantime, maybe take a screen break. 



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Trade war hits Treasurys

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">subscribe</a>.



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US-based startup Axal is combining crypto trading with AI agents. They’re starting with automated trades through their <a href="https://www.ax.al/autopilot">Autopilot</a> tool, which lets users set a risk tolerance level and other restrictions to automate trading with crypto and stablecoins.



The team told me in an interview that the tool currently uses Ethereum L2 chains Base, Optimism and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/arbitrum">Arbitrum</a> on the backend, with plans to add <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/solana">Solana</a> in the coming weeks.&nbsp;



Autopilot users can fund their accounts via crypto wallets, or by using an email and funding with Venmo. Once personal trading preferences and settings are set up, Autopilot’s AI agents can get to work.



There’s a wide range of functionality with Autopilot, but it’s more newbie-friendly and ideal for non-technical crypto fans who like crypto but aren’t day-traders or DeFi experts. Autopilot can collect stablecoin yields, engage with DeFi tools, and trade BTC, ETH, memecoins and other tokens. Users can also make a custom index of specific tokens for the AI agents to trade.&nbsp;



It’s not an intimidating tool, and it seems like there are enough parameters that can be set to ensure there will be no major surprises. But like with any AI tool, hallucinations are still possible.



Axal’s team is aware of this flaw, but they see the blockchain as one way to verify that requested tasks are actually completed per instructions.&nbsp;



“You can literally look onchain that this thing that you wanted this agent to do, it actually did,” Axal Head of Strategy and Operations Ari Santos said.



Under the hood, Axal’s also using <a href="https://blog.axiom.xyz/what-is-a-zk-coprocessor/">zero-knowledge co-processors</a> and <a href="https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-work">Optimistic oracles</a> to verify information.



“If a model hallucinates, it still has collateral at stake and it gets slashed. Whoever’s running the model, or the model itself, if it has very low accuracy, it’s just taking that risk,” Axal founder Ashlan Ahmed told Blockworks, explaining that hallucinating models are essentially punished for mistakes.



The team has plans for future AI tools, including one that can automate more daily tasks such as ordering food for delivery based on a general request or booking travel when given travel dates and preferences.



“There’s a lot of different people in the agentic space,” Axal Head of Growth Jacob Kozhipatt acknowledged. “What we believe is that in order for the agentic feature to happen, people need some form of guarantee that it&#8217;ll actually be done the way that you asked to be done.”



This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.



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Crypto startup Axal automates trading with AI agents

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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NFT marketplace Magic Eden is acquiring trading app Slingshot.



As of Tuesday, the deal has been signed and is expected to close soon, a spokesperson for Magic Eden confirmed to Blockworks. Jack Lu, Magic Eden’s CEO and cofounder, also spoke to us about the deal.



“Why Slingshot, right? The way we would think about it is, if you look at the market today, there was a time everyone was launching L2s,” Lu told Blockworks. “But it was pretty obvious that the market was pretty over it. And our conviction in this cycle — but also over the long term — is [in] the apps. It&#8217;s the apps that are going to win and get the most attention.”



Lu explained that he enjoys a number of Slingshot’s features, including what he describes as super-fast trading and the ability to trade across any chain without bridging tokens. He also likes that more tokens are available to trade on Slingshot, compared to a centralized exchange like Coinbase.



Magic Eden is also planning social features for Slingshot in the future.&nbsp;



“Our vision for Magic Eden has always been all chains, all assets,” Lu said. “This is not just an app that allows you to trade memecoins.”



Support for HyperLiquid, XRP, Cardano, Sui, TON and Chainlink is in the works on Slingshot, he added. 



Lu clarified that while there might be integrations between Slingshot and Magic Eden in their long-term vision, nothing’s imminent in the short-term. However, there could be a user identity tie-in at some point in the future, where users of both trading platforms are able to see all their assets in one place, under one account.



“We don&#8217;t want to create too much interdependency between Magic Eden and Slingshot. [Slingshot is] a really fast team. They ship super fast,” Lu explained.



When asked how much Magic Eden paid to acquire Slingshot, Magic Eden’s rep said both sides of the deal prefer not to share the financial details behind it.&nbsp;



Slingshot’s app is available on iOS and Android, and can be <a href="https://help.slingshot.finance/en/articles/10949185-who-can-use-slingshot">used almost worldwide</a>, including in the US, as long as you comply with its terms of service. It launched in February 2023, according to one of its <a href="https://x.com/SlingshotCrypto/status/1630614199905796108">posts</a> on X.&nbsp;



Slingshot lets users connect Apple Pay, Venmo, PayPal, credit card or debit card to make crypto purchases. It offers a non-custodial wallet for users and is a decentralized app, meaning all swaps occur onchain and users retain custody of their crypto at all times. There’s no option for Slingshot to custody user assets.



Slingshot is a mobile-first app, and has a simplicity to its interface and design that reminds me of Robinhood.



But it has to compete with Robinhood — which has a market cap of $30 billion — as well as other behemoths like Coinbase and Binance. Plus it’s in the ring with DeFi platforms and other smaller crypto trading tools. But Slingshot seems to have an ease-of-use that could make it appealing to crypto newcomers.



The app’s Google <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.slingshot.finance&amp;hl=en_US">Play Store page</a> shows Slingshot has over 10,000 unique user downloads, which means its Android version has more than 10,000 but less than 50,000 downloads (“50K+” would appear as the download count if the app has over that amount).&nbsp;



Magic Eden’s move to expand beyond just NFTs is something other NFT marketplaces have been exploring, as NFT <a href="https://dune.com/sealaunch/NFT">trading volumes</a> stagnate. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/opensea-announces-token-and-open-beta">OpenSea</a> has said it wants to add fungible tokens to its latest marketplace, OS2, to expand beyond just NFTs.



Despite markets being down this year, Magic Eden’s Lu isn’t worried about the broader sentiment and state of crypto because he’s taken a builder’s perspective — a stance execs and devs often take in bear markets.



“Now is the best time,” Lu said. “Right now when it’s really quiet, we actually find it the best time for us to cool our minds and really bet deep on our thesis and build really hard.”



Lu’s interview was edited and condensed for clarity.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
</ul>

NFT marketplace Magic Eden acquires Slingshot trading app

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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PancakeSwap’s new Tokenomics v3 <a href="https://forum.pancakeswap.finance/t/cake-tokenomics-proposal-3-0-true-ownership-simplified-governance-and-sustainable-growth/1237">proposal</a> promises “true ownership, simplified governance and sustainable growth.” Central to this shift is the deprecation of veCAKE replaced with direct emissions management and a max one-year lock, aimed at boosting capital efficiency and simplifying participation.



However, critics warn the proposal sets a dangerous precedent. Some question its effect on governance integrity and emissions control. <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/curve">Curve</a> founder Michael Egorov called it a “governance attack at its finest,” arguing that <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/cake">CAKE</a> insiders effectively wipe out governance rights of existing veCAKE holders and could force-unlock their own tokens after the vote. “Upgradability is a bug,” Egorov <a href="https://x.com/newmichwill/status/1909678061202944035">cautioned</a> on X. “Don’t make your veGovernance upgradable, especially the lock part.”



Others, like forum member Hubert, <a href="https://forum.pancakeswap.finance/t/cake-tokenomics-proposal-3-0-true-ownership-simplified-governance-and-sustainable-growth/1237/5">criticized</a> the motivation behind the change: bribes from Magpie Finance and similar <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/top-defi-protocols-by-revenue">Convex</a>-style forks that siphoned emissions with little benefit to <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/0xresearch/6785d6c8-e264-11ee-8a8c-aff4ad4d0af2">PancakeSwap</a>. The solution wasn’t killing veCAKE, “one of the best veModels” in the market, Hubert argued, but rather capping emissions to depegged mAsset pairs and restructuring incentives around fee generation.



Magpie mAssets are synthetic versions of real assets that users receive when depositing tokens into Magpie. They have a tendency to depeg due to low liquidity or limited redemption mechanisms.



Supporters of v3 counter that veCAKE has failed to curb CAKE sell pressure and now adds inefficiency and opacity. The new model aims to cut emissions by 43% and redirect incentives to high-volume, high-fee pools.



If there&#8217;s consensus or strong support, a discussion proposal is promoted to a formal vote through PancakeSwap’s own <a href="https://pancakeswap.finance/voting">Governance Portal</a>. In its first day, the topic has already accumulated about 150 comments from 50 users.



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PancakeSwap veCAKE gets sliced in new proposal

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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MegaETH is an EVM L2 that settles to Ethereum.&nbsp;



What makes it special? 



Well…it’s fast.



MegaETH markets itself as the first “real-time” blockchain. It theoretically claims to be able to process about 1.7 gigagas/s (or 1,700 Mgas/s) in transaction speeds on its current testnet.



Let’s put that into context.&nbsp;



1,700 Mgas/s completely dwarfs the speeds of the major L2s like Optimism (15 Mgas/s) and Arbitrum (128 Mgas/s).



It also eclipses Base’s announced target <a href="https://x.com/base/status/1838639094995521831">goal</a> to hit 1000 Mgas/s, or Monad L1’s <a href="https://www.monad.xyz/post/how-monad-works">300 Mgas/s</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeH5jqOMei6bXEKkdW6mejZCp5BIsBJT2J0iFxv1B_fRNKpz2mXUfJu2Fwh3D7Z6XfSygrN8ctYYXD53WA1YrISu78TsdzD3A3fNivI-Lz_9TUNCJWThnFno8Hra36UFEOGa98LOw?key=ZzvywRr-rMHZKJj_3aSe2fFe" alt=""/></figure>



Source: <a href="https://x.com/megaeth_labs/status/1903099485846180291">MegaETH</a>



The chain claims to have 10 ms block times, which seems to check out on its three-week-old testnet’s <a href="https://www.megaexplorer.xyz/">block explorer</a>.



MegaETH’s secret sauce?



MegaETH makes a few crucial trade-offs on the consensus layer that centralizes block production, or what is sometimes referred to by the team as “node specialization.”&nbsp;



Explained simply, the network uses a single sequencer that is consensus-free. Typically, blockchains have geographically dispersed nodes. The network is more decentralized, but it comes at the cost of latency overhead concerning distributed node consensus. MegaETH’s decision to use one sequencer removes the execution redundancy for nodes to execute all transactions, allowing MegaETH to achieve its very low sub-10ms latencies.



Another technical innovation that MegaETH made is replacing Ethereum’s default Hexary Patricia Merkle Tree with a custom state tree, which allows for up to 10x higher write bandwidth at the cost of full EVM-equivalency.



For a technical overview, listen to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/0xresearch/5ebe22de-d4ee-11ef-81f4-8f9bcb7de357">0xResearch podcast episode</a> with MegaETH founders Lei and Namik.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">MegaETH ecosystem</h2>



Unlike most chains raising at billion-dollar valuations from VCs, MegaETH has sought to signal community alignment by enabling retail access to its rounds at attractive valuations.&nbsp;



In December 2024, MegaETH opened its round at a $200 million valuation to retail investors on Echo, <a href="https://x.com/hotpot_dao/status/1867619258504491457">raising</a> about $10 million in a record two-to-three minutes. Subsequently, MegaETH also raised 10k ETH in its “Fluffle” soulbound NFT sale, equivalent to about 5% of the MegaETH token supply.



MegaETH had previously <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vitalik-buterin-backs-megalabs-raise">raised</a> $20 million in June 2024 from VCs in a seed round backed by Dragonfly and which included angel investors such as Ethereum co-founders Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin.



Also of note is how MegaETH’s apps have together seemingly raised more money than the MegaETH protocol itself. This <a href="https://x.com/Solofunk30/status/1909265841050570809">indicates</a> investor belief in the MegaETH application layer, which suggests the blazing fast performance of the MegaETH protocol may be creating uniquely new apps that can’t be built elsewhere.



Such notable apps include the GTE DEX, the TikTok-gamified derivatives exchange Euphoria, and <a href="https://mirror.xyz/0x83c21bb4Bf0EC116f5a1945AaeF847Fe3b321B32/-Fw6wiyvnSV5aOYeKhaADvEqXdwngJfWMfZJuFv6iA4">CAP</a>, a stablecoin protocol that leverages EigenLayer restaking to outsource stablecoin yield generation.



DeFi apps like GTE and Euphoria in particular leverage “Bolt,” the “fastest oracle ever,” built by RedStone for high-performance chains like MegaETH. RedStone claims Bolt will be able to push new prices onchain at a speed of ~every 2.4 ms — making it the only oracle fast enough to keep up with MegaETH.



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Understanding MegaETH’s need for speed

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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When it comes to whether bitcoin is (or was ever) a bubble, the late John McAfee <a href="https://x.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337">said</a> it best. 



“Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not [care] enough to try.



“Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else.”



That was in early December 2017, when bitcoin traded at under $17,000. It peaked one week later, stopping just shy of $20,000 to cap off a nearly three-year bull market.



Four months passed, and bitcoin slipped by two-thirds to less than $7,000, marking the first act of a bear market that lasted only one year.&nbsp;



If only Bloomberg and Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett had listened to McAfee.



On this date in 2018, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/bitcoin-seen-popping-like-the-greatest-bubbles-by-bofa">Bloomburg posted an article</a> called “Bitcoin, the Biggest Bubble in History, Is Popping.&#8221; In analysis cited the article, Hartnett’s team plotted bitcoin’s most recent bull market against well-known asset bubbles — the Wall Street crash that ended the Roaring Twenties, the South Sea Company and Mississippi bubbles in the 18th century, and the often-cited Dutch tulip craze a century earlier.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeYDx_tmaJE1uCWA6HV8er6ulG9wIriJCxr5AQDI1M_O10Sqp0gUHT-akgDAOxq6vwGBG6WO4bMlYODsj4K8GPGXh7RuwvEICquy1UUf8OMbfJzw-7pJee1HxdODymUavsOId2ODw?key=EWy5H33Q5JDD9iYKGCNA-ra2" alt=""/></figure>



But there are bubbles, and then there’s price discovery.



Dutch tulips had indeed exploded from a single guilder in early 1635 to 60 guilders two years later — a 5,900% rally — before collapsing by more than 99% in a matter of weeks.&nbsp;



Bitcoin, meanwhile, had managed 8,900% in the three years leading up to its December 2017 all-time high, starting at $224.



That’s more returns than the South Sea Company, Mississippi Company, and Roaring Twenties bubbles combined.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfXZkAKH0mY9GAxKLVU0Xj1P9LW97hNeR_CqkwN5BD4rlwQbIdMt4q6XvKBTiGQ3W4CxQHe3nLC9e82bFS5-UmmI0sQsVEVWfKxeeE1xaksRzNOigyV5ZoOSV1vpFEQJWi4fkxy?key=EWy5H33Q5JDD9iYKGCNA-ra2" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The original BofA chart implied bitcoin was the “greatest asset price bubble” in history</figcaption></figure>



But where the South Sea and Mississippi Companies folded entirely after their individual markets tanked, and the Dow languished for nearly a decade through the Great Depression, bitcoin itself never suffered such a drastic fate.



Despite a string of bankruptcies for over-leveraged bitcoin miners — which helped to push bitcoin down by another 50% in the nine months following Hartnett’s note — bitcoin reversed course significantly over the next two quarters in what’s <a href="https://thedefiant.io/news/research-and-opinion/charting-history-s-rhyme-understanding-the-cyclicality-of-crypto-markets">considered</a> a short but legitimate bull market cycle.



Bitcoin returned to its December 2017 all-time high three years later almost to the day, whereas it took 15 years for the Nasdaq to do the same following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and almost a decade longer for Japan’s Nikkei 225 after its own market mania in the late ‘80s.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe4Ile4r5R8p2iFXwBrK28GoWDoYEgtpU7oWwWhmd106Isv-pnSfq6cuj_DbioayNjPjhMUJ8vfvIe3rY_-e4pH_yHjW0d5ZjXZ7SEEeM2V-lYIvfgU0b4lIOp364ZKTwluSCPHUQ?key=EWy5H33Q5JDD9iYKGCNA-ra2" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Take that, tulips!</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin has been declared <a href="https://bitcoindeaths.com/">dead</a> 67 more times since Bloomberg’s article, and it’s up more than 1,000%.



Which, of course, makes the notion of a “bitcoin bubble” mathematically impossible, just like McAfee said. RIP.



— David Canellis



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Did You Know?</h2>



If Sir Isaac Newton — the famed mathematician who defined our modern laws of physics — was alive today, there’s a good chance you’d see him in the trenches.



Newton <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsnr.2018.0018#:~:text=It%20is%20easy%20to%20imagine,of%20%C2%A320%20000%20or%20more">built</a> up a strong diversified portfolio of government bonds and stocks in the early 18th century, and he was even appointed as Master of the Royal Mint for more than 30 years due to his scientific achievements.



Despite this, Newton was still caught in a pump and dump for a stock he’d been holding for years — the South Sea Company.



The South Sea Company was a joint-stock government enterprise intended to stymie spiraling national debt by exploiting what were supposed to be massively lucrative trade routes with Spanish territories across South America.



Despite very low revenue at the time, hype in Britain quickly reached fever pitch and the stock went nearly 10x in the first six months of 1720.



But with no actual profits, it resembled a Ponzi scheme more than a bona fide company, while insiders manipulated the market for massive personal gain.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcUePvht7vsqUCTIruoe1mle9rhUwOo6nbTa2L8JsawjCkumjUMVNQUzHVcoZD8g7YvFhKepIXnXJXz3RaPpdQeYIyYMXWPJ2hRkO35hmJyJwyMJ39bhEM4k-H97VHLQVX0Db8j?key=EWy5H33Q5JDD9iYKGCNA-ra2" alt=""/></figure>



<a href="https://newtonandthemint.history.ox.ac.uk/global-financial-world/newton-and-the-south-sea-bubble#:~:text=It%20is%20likely%20that%20Newton,out%20arrangements%20for%20the%20Company">Legend</a> has it that Newton had, unfortunately, cashed out too early, FOMO&#8217;d back in at the top, and bought massively on the way down, losing today’s equivalent of $25 million in the crash.



“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people,” he supposedly said, and forbade anyone in earshot from mentioning “South Sea” ever again.



If only they’d heard of HODLing in the 1700s.



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BofA’s blunder: How bitcoin turned a ‘crash’ into a 1,000% surge

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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When looking at data throughout the market, it’s fairly easy to find some bright spots right now.&nbsp;



For example, BTC volatility offers a “sharp contrast” to that of equities, according to K33.&nbsp;



“Following its massive sell-off, the S&amp;P 500 recorded its largest one-week volatility since April 2020, whereas BTC’s 7-day volatility of 3.1% sits moderately above its 1-year average 7-day volatility level of 2.5%,” analysts wrote.&nbsp;



“This orderly and relatively regular 7-day volatility of BTC amidst the broad market chaos is an unusual sight to behold, as steep movements in equities tend to be mirrored by even sharper BTC moves.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcu1yVpYIkWomz2WrVxAlGS7S7FpmEvQ9Z8UQtjCMO3sJEchs4v2sF34gfqFCzyul7nCCBg_wkw1kpbQ7pi2qzosb4jA4NP6KDG-5SWDW59taVl7oNOhxhV7WMz1j6vme_PD_gK?key=vRZeGRCNXAHvOm2_TjgnUTtO" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: K33</figcaption></figure>



This supports another piece of data you all know I’m fond of: CME trader sentiment. As of last week, traders were holding on to their defensive positions, but seemed relatively unfazed by what was happening in equity markets.&nbsp;



“CME yields are starting to show a mild uptrend over recent weeks, indicative of slightly improved market sentiment. However, current premiums remain soft at 6.3%, reflecting cautious positioning, while open interest remains flat at 11-month lows. VolatilityShares outflows largely offset inflows from active market participants, as the futures-based ETF now holds 43,930 BTC – its lowest level since July 2024,” the analysts wrote.&nbsp;



The real test will be looking at this same data in a week to ensure it’s holding up, given that volatility has taken us on some wild rides so far this week. My read right now is that cautious positioning without panic is a good sign. Though, after this week (and, yes, it’s only Wednesday), I’m not sure that’ll still be the case.



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