Research

Kinetiq has established itself as Hyperliquid's dominant liquid staking protocol, holding 82.5% of LST market share with $610M in TVL. The protocol is now expanding beyond its kHYPE staking core into higher take-rate verticals: iHYPE for institutional custody rails, Launch for HIP-3 capital formation, and Markets for builder-deployed perpetuals. We view Markets, launching Jan. 12, as the highest-potential product line given its mechanically scalable, activity-linked unit economics. Near-term revenue remains anchored by kHYPE's KIP-2 fee schedule (~$1.6M annualized), while Markets provides embedded optionality if HIP-3 economics normalize post-Growth Mode. KNTQ's setup is relatively clean: zero insider unlocks until November 2026, 6.2% buyback yield from staking revenue, and cleared airdrop overhang. Risks center on unproven Markets execution, declining kHYPE TVL despite ongoing incentives, and competition from Hyperliquid's native initiatives.

Research

Fully homomorphic encryption is emerging as the leading cryptographic approach to onchain confidentiality, enabling computation directly on encrypted data without exposure. We are constructive on FHE as a category and Zama as the clear leader, though the 1,000x+ computational overhead and hardware dependency represent material execution risks that make throughput scaling the key variable for valuation.

Research

Solana's spot trading landscape will remain bifurcated: prop AMMs will own the short-tail of highly liquid pairs, while passive AMMs continue drifting toward the long-tail. Both can win via vertical integration, but in opposite directions: passive AMMs are moving closer to users through token issuance platforms (e.g., Pump-PumpSwap, MetaDAO-Futarchy AMM), while prop AMMs are moving down the stack into transaction landing services and infrastructure (e.g., HumidiFi-Nozomi). The venues most at risk are legacy AMMs with limited end-user control and no durable, launch-driven source of order flow.

Research

Neutrl is a synthetic dollar protocol designed to monetize structural inefficiencies in crypto markets, with a particular focus on hedged OTC token arbitrage. By pairing discounted locked-token purchases with delta-neutral hedging, the protocol offers yields that are less dependent on funding rate cycles than traditional cash and carry strategies. Early traction has been strong, with TVL growing from $120M to $210M following the removal of deposit caps, while sNUSD currently yields materially more than competing yield-bearing stablecoins. The key question for Neutrl is scalability: whether access to high-quality OTC deal flow and disciplined liquidity management can support continued TVL growth without compressing returns.