Byron Gilliam

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“If you can’t make money, you may want to consider being quiet. Maybe the market knows more than you do.”



— Jeff Yass
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Today, The Breakdown looks at developing stories and links from around the cryptoverse.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/moontower/p/spooky-jeff-yass-on-prediction-markets?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=android&amp;r=3qcul">Jeff Yass says prediction markets will stop wars</a></h2>



After Jeff Yass brought his math and poker skills onto trading floors in the 1980s, global options markets stopped looking like a casino and started looking like a science.



Yass thinks prediction markets could do the same for the world.



First and foremost, he says, “It will stop wars.”



Yass cites the second Iraq War, which President Bush said would cost the US $20 billion but is now thought to have cost at least $2 trillion, and maybe as much as $6 trillion.



It’s unlikely prediction markets would have settled on such an astronomical number, but Yass believes they might have predicted something like $500 billion, in which case “people might have said, ‘Look, we don’t want this war.’”



That would have saved many, many lives, as well: “If people know how expensive it’s going to be and how disastrous it’s going to be, they’ll try to come up with other solutions.”



Prediction markets, he says, “can really slow down the lies that politicians are constantly telling us.”



He also cites applications in insurance, technology and even dating.



Asked by the 16-year-old podcast host what advice he’d give young people, Yass suggested they could avoid relationship mistakes by creating an anonymous prediction market for their friends to bet on.



“I believe in markets,” he concluded.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://nodumbideas.com/p/does-momentum-exist-in-prediction">Do prediction markets trend?</a>&nbsp;</h2>



It sounds like a dumb idea: Unlike stocks with their open-ended valuations, prediction markets should converge toward the single fixed probability of a binary outcome.



But the author of No Dumb Ideas crunched the numbers and found that prices in political prediction markets do, in fact, trend: A market that trades up one day is more likely than otherwise to trade up the next day, too.



“Momentum seems to be real, at least for a day or two.”



The author speculatively attributes this to prediction markets making news, the dynamics of political campaigns and/or because momentum trading is fun.



I’d also cite Cliff Asness’s <a href="https://youtu.be/e1Iok2wyoCw?si=EFtXXTKtKE66hgs8">observation</a> that stocks exhibit momentum in part because they tend to underreact to news — so maybe prediction markets do, too.&nbsp;



Whatever the reason, the study by No Dumb Ideas suggests that prediction markets are subject to many of the same behavioral finance drivers as stock markets.



So there should be something in them for everyone: momentum traders, swing traders, quants…most of whom, I suspect, will lose money.



That would be good news, if so, because it will create a stronger profit motive for experts to participate — giving us better information on subjects like how much a war is likely to cost.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cohen-co-inc-cohn-q3-110037508.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHrSRTmsAd6lSyvfTxRqPzte0umEmVDKNnADyPHwr54NKAQ4WbFoz-zVgj36EUv3GH-Tm6yHRdBnPcglpxzKJrr7HW8A8pV-KJzerF8rJf86v9KznGkfmFGeAvdZxtzyZ4kUIoO00KcT4RQq3Sdzp8YBxgnFNLGVmFEzxr1L1eEm">Cohen cashes in on DATs</a></h2>



The boutique investment bank Cohen &amp; Co. booked $179 million of revenue for its advisory work on a single DAT merger, Nakamoto Kindly MD.&nbsp;&nbsp;



That’s an astonishing haul given that the company currently holds just $594 million of bitcoin, per data from <a href="https://blockworks.com/analytics/treasury-companies">Blockworks Research</a>.



Even worse, Kindly MD now has a market capitalization of $267 million.



Cohen unfortunately took much of its compensation in shares, which have fallen 90% from the merger announcement. As a result, it booked a $146 million non-cash loss for the quarter, reducing its profit on the deal to only $33 million.



That’s still 5.5% of the company’s NAV and 12% of its market cap.



Nice work if you can get it.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/1987990314997739625?t=e9VD7PIDjoziGT5ONb8LCA&amp;s=19">Uniswap flips the switch</a></h2>



Uniswap Labs has made a financially underwhelming but symbolically significant proposal for the Uniswap Protocol to collect fees and return them to token holders.



The <a href="https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/blog/unification?utm_source=blockworks-research.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=unification&amp;_bhlid=26d5152c813ec755cdd95b31c94dbd1712ab5600">proposal</a> would retroactively burn 100 million tokens held in its treasury, “representing the protocol fees that could have been burned if fees were turned on at token launch.”



That amounts to a 16% buyback over five years, which is…not a lot?



<a href="https://x.com/0xSharples?s=20">0xSharples</a> of Blockworks Research <a href="https://x.com/0xSharples/status/1988256449806372906?s=20">estimates</a> that, excluding wash trading, Uniswap would have generated about $6 million of fees over the past month, which annualizes to just 1.5% of UNI’s $4.8 billion market capitalization — also not a lot for what looks like an ex-growth business.&nbsp;



More importantly, though, the proposal states that “Labs will stop collecting fees on its interface, wallet, and API to supercharge distribution and adoption of the Uniswap protocol.”



Beyond the fees that will reroute to token holders, this carries <a href="https://x.com/TheiaResearch/status/1988241585834734001?s=20">symbolic weight</a>: It unwinds crypto’s most prominent dual equity-token structure, which has been so fraught with conflicts of interest.



I’d argue this comes at a cost, though.



When the UNI token was launched in 2020 as a pure governance token, it became Exhibit A for why tokens were not stocks and protocols were not companies.&nbsp;



Anecdotally, it felt like most UNI holders did not view themselves as owners of the Uniswap protocol — a protocol, it was thought, could not be owned in the same way a company could.



Token holders were only stewards of the protocol, and the best thing for the protocol was to either keep whatever fees it earned in its treasury or not charge fees at all.&nbsp;



Now, though, once the protocol starts collecting revenue and returning it to token holders, how is it not just a company?&nbsp;



Jake Chervinsky says the proposal will “<a href="https://x.com/jchervinsky/status/1988333836611011037?s=20">minimize governance, maximize ownership</a>” for UNI token holders — which makes Uniswap look a lot more like a company and UNI a lot more like equity.&nbsp;



This is probably for the best: The industry needs investors and investors need a profit motive to invest.&nbsp;



But minimizing governance and maximizing ownership also makes crypto less special.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/atkins-111225-securities-exchange-commissions-approach-digital-assets-inside-project-crypto">Project Crypto</a></h2>



If tokens are less special, do they risk being securities?



SEC Chair and crypto enthusiast Paul Atkins warns that calling something a token does not make it exempt from securities laws “if it in substance represents a claim on the profits of an enterprise and is offered with the sorts of promises based on the essential efforts of others.”



UNI now represents a claim on the profits of the Uniswap enterprise, so, to avoid being security, it will have to argue that it’s not making any promises on the efforts of others.



Chair Atkins promises to tread lightly, but warns that Project Crypto “is not a promise of lax enforcement at the SEC. Fraud is fraud.”



But he’s not asking a lot: “If you raise money by promising to build a network, and then take the proceeds and disappear, you will be hearing from us.”



That’s a pretty low bar for crypto projects to clear, although plenty would not have in recent years.



Nevertheless, Atkins will do everything he can to be sympathetic: “We will not forget that behind every token debate, there are real people.”



Sounds like he’s not on Crypto Twitter much.



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Prediction markets, DATs, the fee switch, and Project Crypto

Blockworks

Trump Media &amp; Technology Group announced that it will launch Truth Predict, a prediction-market product built into its Truth Social platform.



The prediction market will launch through an integration with Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse.



Truth Predict will allow users to trade event contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including U.S. elections, interest-rate decisions and sports results. The platform’s real-time price updates will reflect shifting market sentiment as events unfold.&nbsp;



A beta version will debut “in the near future” before a national rollout, with global expansion to follow once additional regulatory requirements are met.



Under the arrangement, Truth Social and its sister platforms Truth+ and Truth.Fi will integrate with CDNA’s infrastructure, enabling users to convert in-platform rewards called “Truth gems” into Cronos (CRO) tokens for use in prediction contracts.&nbsp;



The system builds on Trump Media’s existing partnership with Crypto.com to establish Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, Inc., a digital asset treasury vehicle formed through a proposed SPAC merger.



Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said the integration aims to “democratize information” and “turn free speech into actionable foresight.” Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek called prediction markets a “multi-deca-billion dollar opportunity” and said the collaboration aligns social engagement with transparent market sentiment.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Michael McSweeney</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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Crypto.com

Trump Media unveils prediction market Truth Predict

Prediction market operator Kalshi is receiving investor offers valuing the company at more than $10 billion, according to a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-22/prediction-market-kalshi-fields-investor-offers-at-over-10-billion-valuation?srnd=phx-crypto">report</a>.&nbsp;



That valuation would make Kalshi one of the largest prospective valuations yet for a regulated event-trading platform.&nbsp;



The offers come just weeks after Kalshi closed a $300 million round co-led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, which pegged the New York-based startup at around $5 billion.



Founded in 2018, Kalshi lets users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes — from U.S. elections and economic data to sports contests and government shutdown durations.&nbsp;



The company operates under a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license, distinguishing it from crypto-native venues such as Polymarket, a major rival. After a court victory in October 2024 allowed Kalshi to list presidential-election contracts, trading volumes surged to new highs.&nbsp;



Chief executive Tarek Mansour said this month the exchange has reached an annualized volume of $50 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Kalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others. Since then, we&#39;ve grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world. And today…Kalshi goes global. 140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool. <a href="https://t.co/Z2myzRw9bA">pic.twitter.com/Z2myzRw9bA</a>&mdash; Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) <a href="https://twitter.com/mansourtarek_/status/1976641515549348160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 10, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The competition in prediction markets is intensifying. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently pledged up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8 billion valuation. The National Hockey League became the first major sports league to partner with both Kalshi and Polymarket under multiyear agreements announced this week.



This is a developing story.



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This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor&nbsp;<a href="mailto:jeffrey@blockworks.co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Michael McSweeney</a>&nbsp;before publication.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>
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