Sam Martin

<div id="highlights-block_617725d07bf3f" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>BTC is up 78.5% from Jan. 1, 2021</li>
                <li>BTC investment vehicles could be absorbing demand that would otherwise take place on-chain</li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>BTC is up 78.5% from Jan. 1, 2021, with a current drawdown of 24.4% from previous all-time highs.</p>



<p>2.214 million BTC has traded hands between $45,500 and $50,800, according to data from Glassnode.</p>



<p>Long-term bitcoin holders have grown by ~16% over the course of this year.</p>



<p>Bitcoin investment vehicles, such as BITO, could be absorbing demand that would otherwise take place on-chain.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Macro:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>S&amp;P 500: 4,793, +0.14%</li><li>NASDAQ: 15,766, -0.10%</li><li>Gold: $1,804, -0.13%</li><li>WTI Crude Oil: $76.52, +0.71%</li><li>10-Year Treasury: 1.558%, +0.077%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Crypto:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>BTC: $47,357, -1.10%</li><li>ETH: $3,732, -2.70%</li><li>ETH/BTC: 0.0787, -1.32%</li><li>BTC.D: 40.24%, +0.62%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2021 BTC price action</h3>



<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s price is up 78.5% from Jan. 1, 2021, with a current drawdown of 24.4% from the all-time high seen on Nov. 10, 2021, according to data from <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-52-2021/?utm_source=Email&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=WOC-52" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode</a>.</p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13302" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-2.46.02-PM-1024x576.png?w=1155 1155w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Glassnode</figcaption></figure></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Unspent transaction output realized price distribution</h3>



<p>&#8220;A reasonably large volume cluster has been established in this week&#8217;s price range, equivalent to 2.214M BTC (11.7% of supply). This indicates that a non-trivial degree of demand has been mobilsed during the consolidation, with a large proportion of coins changing hands between $45k and $50k,&#8221; reads a <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-52-2021/?utm_source=Email&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=WOC-52" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode report</a>. </p>



<p>This has helped establish a relatively strong floor for bitcoin&#8217;s price in the mid $40k range, assuming investors don&#8217;t begin selling their underwater positions. </p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="608" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13303" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=440 440w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=369 369w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.03.39-PM-1024x608.png?w=1158 1158w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Glassnode</figcaption></figure></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Long-term holders are stacking sats</h3>



<p>Long-term holders have increased their holdings over the past year, taking advantage of any price dips to acquire more of the number one digital asset.</p>



<p>This week&#8217;s <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-52-2021/?utm_source=Email&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=WOC-52" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode report</a> states:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><strong>Long-Term Holders </strong>added 1.846 million BTC to their holdings, bringing their total stack to 13.33 million BTC. This reflects an increase of 16% over the year.</li><li><strong>Short-Term Holder </strong>supply has declined by 1.428 million BTC, with this cohort currently holding 3.01 million BTC. This reflects a decline of 32% on the year.</li><li><strong>Sovereign Supply</strong>, defined as all coins held outside exchange reserves, is currently at an all-time-high of 16.34 million BTC.</li></ul>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="585" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13305" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=457 457w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=384 384w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.21.50-PM-1024x585.png?w=1156 1156w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Glassnode</figcaption></figure></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BTC on exchanges close to flat for 2021</h3>



<p>The amount of bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is down 67,800 BTC on the year, representing a decline of 2.6%, according to <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-52-2021/?utm_source=Email&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=WOC-52" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode</a>.</p>



<p>It is worth noting that the BTC inflation rate has been hovering around 1.75% since the halving took place in May of 2020, according to data from <a href="https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">woobull.com</a>. This implies long-term holders and miners are keeping freshly minted BTC off of exchanges. </p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="535" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13306" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-3.37.16-PM-1024x535.png?w=1172 1172w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: charts.woobull.com</figcaption></figure></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Futures and BTC volatility</h3>



<p>The <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-52-2021/?utm_source=Email&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=WOC-52" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode report</a> continues: &#8220;Whilst futures open interest is still some way off all-time-highs, rapid increases in leverage can indicate a clustering of stop-losses and liquidation levels in close proximity to the current price. This adds higher probabilities to a potential short, or long squeeze in the more immediate term.&#8221;</p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="583" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13309" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=459 459w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=385 385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.12.08-PM-1-1024x583.png?w=1160 1160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure></div>



<p>Some industry experts, such as Caitlin Long, believe that the increase in derivatives surrounding BTC, such as a futures-backed ETF, has led to price suppression.</p>



<p>She took to <a href="https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1292988036704161792?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Twitter</a> over a year ago saying, &#8220;This question has been gnawing at me: how does all the price suppression that has hit Bitcoin in the past ~3yrs (as the bad kind of financialization started permeating the mkt) jive with Plan B&#8217;s stock-to-flow model? Answer: gold, silver, etc are massively rehypothecated too. An asset that has a fixed emission schedule &amp; HASN&#8217;T been rehypothecated yet logically performs better than one that already has been, all else equal.&#8221;</p>



<p>Her point is that demand for bitcoin is being absorbed by investment vehicles, such as BITO and leveraged trading on various exchanges, that would otherwise flow into the Bitcoin network on-chain and be shown via price appreciation. </p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">NFTs</h3>



<p>Trading data from <a href="https://opensea.io/rankings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenSea</a> and <a href="https://solanalysis.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solanalysis</a> of some of the top Solana and Ethereum projects can be found below:</p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="333" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13310" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.01-PM-1024x333.png?w=1227 1227w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Ethereum Projects</figcaption></figure></div>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="359" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13311" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-29-at-4.13.09-PM-1024x359.png?w=1198 1198w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Solana Projects </figcaption></figure></div>



<p>If you made it this far, thanks for reading and Happy New Year! I am looking forward to catching up in 2022.</p>



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