David Canellis

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Kanye did it. He launched a memecoin on Solana.



Some say this is the top signal for which we’ve been waiting, making Yeezy the Lisan al-Gaib of bears.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="730" height="376" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png" alt="" class="wp-image-106383" style="width:481px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=730 730w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1958346810801697237">Source</a></figcaption></figure>



Maybe so. Although the top signals were much, much louder last time around.



For one thing, Yeezy has fallen off. I’m not sure YZY on Meteora in 2025 will ever have the same impact as if it was sold at the height of the Yeezy brand circa 2020.



Still, I spent my morning going over archives of crypto headlines from the tail-end of the monster 2021 bull market.



What were the signs that crypto would peak at a $3-trillion market cap in the second week of November?&nbsp;



Any top signal would need to come within six months of that cycle peak, I decided. You probably remember that 2021 saw two major tops, in May and November, so really any signal that came before May would’ve ultimately pointed to much higher prices (making them bullish signals).



And yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But tell me that these headlines weren’t screaming that a top was soon near.



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-closes-900m-series-b-round-valuing-exchange-at-18b">FTX Closes $900M Series B Round Valuing Exchange at $18B</a>” — July 20, 2021 (yes, that’s a $900-million raise).



“Tim Berners-Lee sells web source code NFT for $5.4m” — June 30, 2021 (132 days until top).



“CityCoins Community Officially Launches with MiamiCoin, Its First City-Based Token” — August 3, 2021 (remember these?)



“El Salvador buys bitcoin as the digital currency becomes legal tender” — September 6, 2021.



“OpenSea admits insider trading of NFTs it promoted” — September 16, 2021 (arguably the most compelling yet).



“China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal” — September 2, 2021 (68 days until top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbases-new-direct-deposit-feature-allows-users-to-get-paychecks-in-crypto">Coinbase’s New Direct Deposit Feature Allows Users to Get Paychecks in Crypto</a>” — September 27, 2021.



“TikTok Is Auctioning Its NFT Collection Featuring Lil Nas X, Grimes, Bella Poarch, More” — October 1, 2021 (NFT = Nearly Freakin’ Top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/celsius-valued-at-3-25b-after-400m-raise-amid-regulatory-headwinds">Celsius Valued at $3.25B After $400M Raise Amid Regulatory Headwinds</a>” — October 12, 2021 (narrator: Celsius would file for bankruptcy nine months later and its CEO would eventually be sentenced to 12 years’ prison for fraud).



“Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX raises a $420.69M Series B-1 at a $25B valuation from 69 investors, including BlackRock and Tiger Global” — October 21, 2021 (I mean, this one was a doozy, especially paired with the Celsius saga).



“Facebook Changes Company Name to Meta in Focus on Metaverse” — October 28, 2021 (12 days until top).



“Incoming NYC Mayor Eric Adams: Pay Me In Bitcoin” — November 4, 2021.



“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/technology/nft-nyc-metaverse.html">Crypto Is Cool. Now Get on the Yacht</a>” — November 5, 2021 (all about NFT.NYC, the New York conference that attracted a record 5,000 attendees just four days before the top).



“About 5% of Sotheby’s, Christie’s Contemporary Art Auctions Are NFTs” — November 8, 2021 (one day before the top).



To cap it off, Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-reports-q3-net-revenue-dropped-39-to-1-234b">released</a> on the exact day that crypto peaked. Revenue had dropped 39%, from $2 billion to just over $1.2 billion, lower than estimates, and the number of monthly transacting users dipped 16%. COIN tanked 12% in postmarket trading as a result.



So, does a lame ChatGPT 5 release, a new SPAC from Chamath, Meta hiring freeze and a memecoin from washed entertainer stack up to this monumental run of headlines? Not really.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The top signals rolling in fast. Chamath SPAC, Meta hiring freeze, OpenAI admitting GPT-5 is a “miss”, Kanye coin. All in 48h. <a href="https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S">https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S</a>&mdash; Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1958353499848147190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



But then again, it may be another cycle or two before crypto runs back its cultural significance, as it was in 2021. The signals might be quieter this time around.



Read More: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paris-hilton-bitcoin-celebrity-indicators">Was Katy Perry a top signal in 2022?</a>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>
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Empire Newsletter

If Kanye’s memecoin is a top signal, then crypto has fallen off

Shalini Nagarajan

<div id="highlights-block_62bade286c2a8" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their Coinbase price target from $70 to $45</li>
 <li>The Wall Street bank expects Coinbase to make further staff cuts</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



Coinbase stock fell more than 10% on Monday after Goldman Sachs downgraded it to a sell, citing potential for large revenue drops this year.



Goldman analysts, led by Will Nance, said in a research note that current cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes indicate further declines in Coinbase income. 



Coinbase has historically generated more than 90% of its revenue from trading fees.



The analysts expect Coinbase&#8217;s revenue to fall 61% year on year in 2022 and by 73% in the second half of the year alone, as the soured macro outlook continues to inflict pain on industry heavyweights.



Goldman’s latest rating lowers its price target for Coinbase from $70 a share to $45. The top US exchange&#8217;s stock was worth around $56 during pre-market trade on Tuesday, having recovered 1% from Monday&#8217;s losses.



If Goldman analysts are on point, Coinbase could see its share price shed another 20% from here.



Coinbase recently said it would <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/coinbase-cut-workforce-ceo-wary-of-potential-recession/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">slash its workforce by 18%</a> — or 1,100 employees — in anticipation of a US recession. The company warned its trading revenue could be hurt by the crypto winter, a period marked by an extended downturn across digital assets.



Goldman expects Coinbase to make further staff cuts as its layoffs thus far only bring its headcount back to where the company was at the end of this year’s first quarter. 



The Wall Street mainstay&#8217;s analysts reckon Coinbase must &#8220;make substantial reductions in its cost base&#8221; to stymie its cash burn as &#8220;retail trading activity dries up.&#8221;



Goldman is also bearish on Coinbase’s decision to sunset its professional trader-focused platform and <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/coinbase-to-replace-its-pro-service-and-buddle-it-under-one-roof/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unify all trading</a> into a single application.



“We believe that combining these platforms will reduce switching cost friction between the two platforms and potentially lead to fee rate compression,” the analysts said.



Coinbase’s stock has drifted downward ever since it went public in April 2021 at a valuation of more than $86 billion. The company’s market value is now under $12.5 billion, having collapsed 85% since its direct listing.


[stock_market_widget type=&#8221;accordion&#8221; template=&#8221;chart&#8221; color=&#8221;#832ED0&#8243; assets=&#8221;COIN&#8221; start_expanded=&#8221;true&#8221; display_currency_symbol=&#8221;true&#8221; api=&#8221;yf&#8221; chart_range=&#8221;1mo&#8221; chart_interval=&#8221;1d&#8221;]





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Coinbase

Coinbase Stock Tumbles as Goldman Sachs Cuts Rating to ‘Sell’

Casey Wagner

<div id="highlights-block_61f0284cec47a" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>Federal Reserve policy makers meet this week as markets reel and inflation rises </li>
 <li>Bitcoin’s rising correlation to equities could mean a further pullback in coming days</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



Cryptocurrency market participants are closely watching a Tuesday meeting of the Federal Reserve as rising concerns over stimulus pullback and heightened inflation have sent equity and digital assets markets reeling.&nbsp;



Analysts anticipate interest rate increases starting in March, and this week’s policy-setting meeting may confirm the suspicion.&nbsp;



“The Wednesday Fed meeting will be critical, and we don’t expect recent market volatility to have softened Chairman Jerome Powell’s stance on rates and balance sheet runoff,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.&nbsp;



The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comes as the correlation between bitcoin and equities <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/january-effect-bitcoin-tightens-correlation-with-sp-500/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">continues to tighten</a>. 



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/L6ANG92oaWrpdzle--ExqNB472zpBkhzeUccNiY8oezeNkR6i6b-hFlvbJdCsdCZ96YslJSMVA_CycNNHGQhj3sksVfP3c_BFPJnxXs8gJ342ssDt1uDlCRetQy1dvmFEYfDEPc3" alt="" width="505" height="358"/></figure></div>



“While bitcoin has historically been uncorrelated to other asset classes, such as equities, bonds, and gold, since March 2020, bitcoin’s rolling 90-day correlation to US equities has been consistently positive,” NYDIG researchers Greg Cipolaro and Ethan Kochav wrote in a recent note. “In the tighter monetary policy era of the past few months, those correlations have increased, as bitcoin has fallen in sympathy with other risk assets.”



Powell has made it clear that the Fed plans on putting its easy money policy days behind it in 2022. 



“It really is time for us to begin to move away from those emergency pandemic settings to a more normal level,” Powell said during congressional testimony earlier this month. “2022 will be the year in which we take steps toward normalization.”



The Fed Funds Futures shifted predictions for rate policy in 2022, now anticipating a Fed Funds rate of 1.0% 12 months from now. This is an increase from the current target of 0.0% &#8211; 0.25%. The probability of three rate hikes in 2022 increased to 25.5%, up from 23.5% on Friday.&nbsp;



But a rocky start to the year – the S&amp;P 500 is down more than 10% year-to-date – has some analysts wondering if the Fed will opt for a more dovish stance.&nbsp;



“If, in the statement, the Fed does not insert language that says, ‘it will soon be appropriate to alter/adjust policy,’ then the market will take that as a signal that rates might not rise until May or June, and that would cause a powerfully dovish response, given markets have priced in a March hike,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. 



The two-day meeting kicked off Tuesday. Central bankers will reveal policy decisions Wednesday.&nbsp;&nbsp;



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