Sebastian Sinclair

A potential decline in the reserve status of the US dollar is causing investors and nations to explore alternatives to the greenback, including commodities, both physical and digital — such as bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BTC</a>).



This gradual shift in the global financial landscape is benefiting the crypto market; bitcoin has often shown an inverse correlation with the US dollar.&nbsp;



Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is down slightly (-0.6%) to about $29,000, after erasing most of Wednesday’s rally which saw the asset <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-related-stocks-soar">rise as much as 9%</a> on the day.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Twitter tizzy</h2>



A -7% swan dive between 3:00 and 4:00 pm ET was preceded by a <a href="https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1651299804423520260?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tweet</a> from crypto data analytics provider Arkham Intelligence, which cited on-chain data to claim that Jump Trading deposited $26.6 million in BTC to crypto exchanges. Blockworks reached out to Jump for comment.



After the sell-off, Twitter and Telegram-based news aggregator Tier10k, <a href="https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1651317391626846214?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">attributed</a> an on-chain alert to Arkham indicating bitcoin from wallets associated with Mt Gox and US government seizures were on the move.&nbsp;



Further on-chain analysis disputed the claim, and Arkham later chalked up the incident to <a href="https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1651366459547713537?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a misconfiguration</a> while pointing out the timing could not possibly have been responsible for the crypto market’s sudden reversal.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">We have conducted an investigation of the DB Alert situation, and determined that the Arkham alerts were sent accurately in this case. DB set two alerts on all Bitcoin transactions above $10k USD, with no counterparties set, then named the alerts “Mt Gox” and “US Gov”. When we… <a href="https://t.co/8OITiygNhL">pic.twitter.com/8OITiygNhL</a>&mdash; Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1651366459547713537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 26, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The price of bitcoin subsequently rebounded over the next 8 hours.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Medium-term trends</h2>



Over a 30-day period, bitcoin&#8217;s value has increased as the dollar has weakened, demonstrating its potential as a digital store of value alternative to gold.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2560" height="1175" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-53633" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=2560 2560w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/btc-dxy-scaled.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">BTC correlation to DXY; Source: TradingView</figcaption></figure>



Over a one-month period, the US dollar index (<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">DXY</a>), which measures the greenback relative to a group of other international currencies, has turned negative, down 0.48%. The DXY is now down 2.48%, data shows.



&#8220;Heavy geopolitical tensions and liquidity pumped into the US financial system through Quantitative Easing after COVID-19 have caused soaring inflation,&#8221; says Sylvia To, lead researcher at crypto exchange Bullish.



The DXY has been in a downtrend since September 2022 — a February bounce of roughly 4.5% has been completely erased in the wake of the US <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/banking" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">regional banking turmoil</a>.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Seeking alternatives</h3>



Strong dollar dominance has put developing countries in a tough spot, as their USD-denominated debt has resulted in inflated debt-to-GDP ratios.



Countries like Russia, China, and the BRICS nations are considering alternatives due to concerns about the use of the world&#8217;s reserve currency as a political tool and the impact US sanctions have on the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/de-dollarization-is-happening-at-a-stunning-pace-jen-says#xj4y7vzkg?leadSource=uverify%20wall" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">global economy</a>.



As interest in bitcoin grows as an alternative to the dollar and a hedge against inflation, demand for digital assets may increase <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-stayed-green">over the long term</a>. More investors are likely to diversify their portfolios to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/bitcoin-may-replace-some-bonds-in-portfolios-as-debasement-hedge/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">mitigate</a> currency risk.



In Argentina, BTC tapped its previous all-time high against the peso on April 14. The country’s central bank <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/argentina-central-bank-debate-rate-hike-no-decision-yet-made-sources-2023-04-20/">raised</a> its benchmark interest rate to 81% in an effort to curb soaring inflation



Bitcoin&#8217;s <a href="https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">inflation rate</a> has steadily declined to 1.75% since its inception more than a decade ago, thanks to its fixed supply of 21 million BTC and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-a-year-out">supply halving events that reduce miner rewards</a>.&nbsp;



Meanwhile, the US dollar&#8217;s <a href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate#:~:text=Basic%20Info,month%20and%208.54%25%20last%20year." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">inflation rate</a> has of late consistently decreased month-to-month, dropping from a peak of 9% in June 2022 to around 5% in March.



&#8220;The future of dollar dominance is the big question,&#8221; To added. &#8220;It&#8217;s really going to set the precedent for the space.&#8221;



Macauley Peterson contributed reporting.



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Bitcoin

Weakening US Dollar Provides Tailwind For Bitcoin, Despite Rumor-Driven Flash Crash

Rallies in both traditional and crypto-related equities experienced temporary setbacks last week, as benchmark cryptocurrency, bitcoin, ended the session 3.4% lower to $22,930.



Digital assets have taken pause after a 33% increase in total market value year-to-date — from $828.7 billion to $1.1 trillion — driven largely by renewed interest in the asset class in the first quarter.



On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant told Blockworks bitcoin appears to have bottomed with some valuation metrics suggesting the start of an “early bull stage.” The shift in sentiment is expected to have a ripple effect on the altcoin market as well.



&#8220;Altcoins have shown positive performances this year amidst a backdrop of rising on-chain network activity,&#8221; said CryptoQuant Senior Analyst Julio Moreno. “The total number of transactions on the Ethereum network has rebounded and is now near the record levels seen in June 2021.”



Market activity in US equities flashed signs of volatility on Friday as participants attempted to make sense of historic low <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jobs-data-crushes-estimates-markets-rethink-fed-predictions">unemployment figures</a>.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500, which initially attempted a rally, closed the day roughly 1% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reported a 0.15% dip by the end of the week.



US stocks and crypto continue to be loosely correlated, which became less clear on Sunday as the <a href="https://www.questionpro.com/blog/spearmans-rank-coefficient-of-correlation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spearman coefficient</a> hit its lowest level in two weeks at 0.23. A coefficient of 1 indicates the two assets are moving in tandem, while a dip below 0 signifies they are moving in opposite directions.



US dollar strength bounced back to a three-week high, above 102.9 on Friday, after reaching a nine-month low on Wednesday. The US dollar index has started to gain steam again and is now above 103.3, according to data from the DXY US Dollar Currency Index.



It&#8217;s worth noting that this year&#8217;s crypto rally has gained momentum alongside a decline in the DXY, meaning a strengthening US dollar against most other currencies could put additional pressure on foreign buyers in the short term.



A strong US dollar can have both positive and negative effects on stocks. On one hand, a strong dollar can make foreign investments more profitable for US-based investors, leading to an increase in stock prices, particularly for multinational corporations and companies that generate a significant portion of their revenue from abroad.



On the other hand, a strong dollar can make US exports more expensive and less competitive in foreign markets, affecting the profits and stock prices of companies that heavily rely on exporting products and/or services overseas.



The Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points marked the eighth consecutive meeting where the policy interest rate has been raised. Further Increases are likely in the coming months as the bank continues its inflation-busting efforts.



Despite the Fed&#8217;s projection for rates to peak above 5% and remain there, market sentiment is diverging as investors anticipate rate cuts before the end of the year.



If that market is right, it could bode well for digital assets long-term as participants begin to reallocate a portion of their capital back into the market amid declining rates and a weakening dollar.



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US Dollar Surge Dampens Crypto Market Momentum

Sam Martin

<div id="highlights-block_617725d07bf3f" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>Less accommodative Federal Reserve policy brings bearish price action to BTC</li>
 <li>Market participants are now pricing in a high chance of three to four rate hikes in 2022</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



The market is now pricing in a good chance of three or four rate hikes in 2022.



Yields on government bonds have been soaring higher as the market expects a less accommodative US Federal Reserve.



The US dollar has shown strength over the past few months, a headwind for digital assets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Latest in Macro:</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>S&amp;P 500: 4,670, -0.14%</li><li>NASDAQ: 14,942, -0.05%</li><li>Gold: $1,801, +0.36%</li><li>WTI Crude Oil: $78.43, -0.60%</li><li>10-Year Treasury: 1.755%, -0.014%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Latest in Crypto:</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>BTC: $41,737, -1.80%</li><li>ETH: $3,076, -3.80%</li><li>ETH/BTC: 0.0737, -1.98%</li><li>BTC.D: 40.91%, +1.36%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tighter fiscal and monetary policy </h3>



Volatility has been in full force as of late with the market expecting three to four rate hikes by the end of 2022 and fewer <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/fed-minutes-show-supply-chain-woes-inflation-will-drag-on/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">asset purchases by the Fed</a> in the face of higher inflation, which in theory would lead to less dollar liquidity. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="834" height="407" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13695" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=834 834w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rate-hikes.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 834px) 100vw, 834px" /><figcaption>Source: Bianco Research</figcaption></figure>



The US 10-year <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tips_glance.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TIPS</a> yield surged last week, which could be bond market participants waking up to the reality that the Fed may be less accommodative in 2022.



Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, <a href="https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1480245556819677188?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">wrote</a>, &#8220;Simply put, the bond market saw one of its worst weeks in history because bond market players finally &#8216;got it&#8217; that the Fed is going to end liquidity. This kicked off a big the scramble to get out and not be the &#8216;bond bag holder&#8217; when the Fed printer is turned off.&#8221;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="768" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-13696" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=343 343w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=348 348w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=292 292w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/tips-1024x768.jpg?w=1200 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Bianco Research</figcaption></figure>



&#8220;Meanwhile, growing expectations for higher rates + tighter liquidity conditions (coupled with a relatively strong economic outlook in the US vs. other regions) has helped breathe life back into the US dollar,&#8221; <a href="https://twitter.com/Kevin_Kelly_II/status/1480604636193116161?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">wrote</a> Kevin Kelly, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="515" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-13697" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/rates-and-dxy-1024x515.jpg?w=1045 1045w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Delphi Digital</figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BTC note</h3>



BTC dropped as low as $39,692 earlier today, according to data from <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CoinGecko</a>. The aforementioned expectations of &#8220;tightening&#8221; by the Fed in conjunction with the inherent amount of leverage used in digital asset markets are likely to blame for the bearish price action.



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="961" height="486" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13698" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=961 961w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-3.51.29-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 961px) 100vw, 961px" /><figcaption>Source: Delphi Digital</figcaption></figure></div>



Billions of dollars of long positions have been liquidated since the December 4th crash, according to data from <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Coinglass</a>. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="412" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13699" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/bybt_chart-7-2-1024x412.png?w=1242 1242w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: coinglass.com </figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">NFTs</h3>



Trading data from <a href="https://opensea.io/rankings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenSea</a> and <a href="https://solanalysis.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solanalysis</a> of some of the top Solana and Ethereum projects can be found below:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="341" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13700" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-4.59.47-PM-1024x341.png?w=1218 1218w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="351" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png" alt="" class="wp-image-13701" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-10-at-5.00.00-PM-1024x351.png?w=1188 1188w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



If you made it this far, thanks for reading! I am looking forward to catching up tomorrow.



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