Jack Farley

<div id="highlights-block_617811dfb339a" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>“Forward Guidance” explores how stocks, bonds, the dollar, commodities, and crypto are impacted by macro variables such as inflation, growth, and liquidity</li>
                <li>Each episode offers long-form interviews with sophisticated macro thinkers</li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Today I’m thrilled to announce that I’ll be hosting a new macro interview series called <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g">Forward Guidance</a> on the Blockworks podcast network.</p>



<p>The show will explore in-depth the risks and opportunities that investors face in today&#8217;s unprecedented macro environment.&nbsp; More specifically, we will explore a paradox at the heart of today&#8217;s markets.</p>



<p>On the one hand, with the help of central banks, risk assets are floating higher by the day, companies are hiring workers at breakneck speeds, and consumer spending and corporate earnings are at record levels.</p>



<p>At the same time, cracks are appearing in the very foundation of our financial markets. A slowdown in commercial lending, wobbles in China’s real estate sector and the surging cost of commodities threaten the narrative the central banks want us so desperately to believe.</p>



<p>That everything is fine.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forward Guidance</a> is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, I’ll be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.</p>



<p>The show launches today, Tuesday, October 26th, with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy as the first guest. Alden shared her thoughts on why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker US dollar.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Alden also discussed her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes and the flurry of new bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.&nbsp;</p>



<p>I will also be hosting a live show with the co-founder of Blockworks, Michael Ippolito. More on that later…</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Listen</a> to the inaugural episode of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forward Guidance</a> on YouTube.</p>



<p>Watch the first episode. 👇</p>



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jx5ZJc1R95g?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p></p>


China

New Macro Podcast Embarks on Cross-asset Class Journey

Casey Wagner

<div id="highlights-block_6154912134d2a" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>Representative Jerry Nadler suggested the US Treasury Secretary mint a $1 trillion coin in order to avoid the US defaulting on its debt for the first time in history</li>
                <li>The idea has been thrown out for decades, and it is perfectly legal </li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Yes, the United States government has the power to mint a $1 trillion platinum coin to pay off US Treasury Bills, and yes, there is at least one congressman on board.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Representative Jerry Nadler (D-NY) voiced the idea on Tuesday during a House Democratic caucus meeting, according to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.&nbsp;</p>



<p>“Jerry Nadler wants to have a coin, a trillion dollar coin,” she told reporters Tuesday. “That doesn’t even require a congressional act.”</p>



<p>The idea appears to be legally sound under a vague provision of the Coinage Act of 1792, more commonly known as the Mint Act, that authorizes the minting of platinum coins for any amount to be used to finance public debt.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Pelosi is correct, congressional approval is not required. The Treasury Secretary has the authority to &#8220;mint and issue coins&#8230;in amounts the Secretary decides are necessary to meet the needs of the United States,&#8221; according to a 1982 amendment to the Coinage Act.&nbsp;</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p><strong>“On one hand, minting what is ultimately a meme coin to work around national debt limits shows how arbitrary the fiat currency system is in the first place, and wouldn&#8217;t have a major quantitative effect on anything, if performed once,” said Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies. “On the other hand, going that route can really spook the market by setting a bad precedent, because it basically goes around the intended checks and balances that keep some fiat systems more reliable than ‘banana republic’ fiat systems.” </strong></p></blockquote>



<p>Under US law, the Treasury can issue bonds to pay its obligations, but Congress is required for authorization on spending and taxes. The Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent of both the executive and the legislative branches, choosing what assets they will buy or sell within their mandate, Alden said.&nbsp;</p>



<p>“The Treasury (executive branch) going around Congress (legislative branch) and the spirit of the law by minting a coin in a loophole, and then encouraging/forcing the Fed to swap for it (i.e. going around the concept of central bank independence to support the Treasury market), basically shows that the Treasury can spend without taxing or issuing debt, and can therefore outright print money,” Alden said.&nbsp;</p>



<p>“Of course that&#8217;s essentially what is happening anyway, but it still needs to be rubber-stamped by a few supposedly separate entities, whereas this approach breaks that illusion of checks, balances, and independence.”&nbsp;</p>



<p>It is not the first time that the idea has been floated. Talks of minting a platinum coin swirled during President Obama’s tenure when a similar debt ceiling crisis was faced. He later described the crisis as one of the scariest points of his presidency and the idea of minting a coin seemed absurd to him.&nbsp;</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"><p><strong>&#8220;It was some primitive &#8230; it was out of the Stone Age,&#8221; President Obama said during an interview on the “Pod Save America” podcast in 2017. &#8220;I pictured rolling in some coin.&#8221;</strong></p></blockquote>



<p>As for logistics, the US government could, in theory, deem a coin of any size worth $1 trillion. President Obama admitted that when he pictured the coin, it was quite large.</p>



<p>It is also a common misconception that the coin of such a value would require copious amounts of platinum. In reality, the value of coins minted by the US Treasury is determined by legal tender, not material value.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The coin, if created and sold, would become the property of the Fed. It would likely be kept with other physical assets in the vault in the basement of the Fed Bank of New York in Manhattan.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<p><strong>Are you a UK or EU reader that can’t get enough investor-focused content on digital assets?&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://cms.blockworks.co/events/das-london/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Join us</a>&nbsp;in London on November 15th and 16th for the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) London. Use code ARTICLE for £75 off your ticket.&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://cms.blockworks.co/events/das-london/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Buy it now</a>.</strong></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>


Debt

A New York Congressman Wants the Treasury to Mint a $1 Trillion Coin to Pay off US Debt

<div id="highlights-block_612ceed43cc75" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>When thinking about inflation, Lyn Alden said it is important to separate deep and shallow supply chain issues </li>
                <li>Real rates are likely to stay low or dip further as the debt-to-GDP ratio increases </li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies, sat down with Blockworks during the Bretton Woods: The Realignment conference to discuss inflation, the housing market and what to expect from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The higher prices that Americans are currently experiencing will not continue forever, she said, pointing to the rate of change we have seen in inflation readings recently.&nbsp;</p>



<p>“People that lost purchasing power for the most part are not going to get that back, it was a stepwise increase in prices, but the rate of change of that inflation can cool off eventually,” Alden said.&nbsp;</p>



<p>While we appear to be in a stagnant period for inflation numbers, there are some industries that have started to level out in terms of higher prices, Alden said, pointing to lumber and used cars. Rent prices will be a key area to watch in the next few months, she said.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In terms of what to expect from the Fed, Alden said that it is important to keep an eye on the debt ceiling. As the Fed issues fewer treasury bills than they are spending, real yield rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Watch the full interview below. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Bretton Woods: Lyn Alden Discusses Why Deep Supply Chain Issues Will Deepen Inflation" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zqmj3kdON_E?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



<p><strong>Are you a UK or EU reader that cant get enough investor-focused content on digital assets?<a target="_blank" href="https://cms.blockworks.co/events/das-london/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Join us</a> in London on November 15th and 16th for the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) London. Use code ARTICLE for £75 off your ticket. <a target="_blank" href="https://cms.blockworks.co/events/das-london/" rel="noreferrer noopener">Buy it now</a>.</strong></p>


Dollar

Lyn Alden: Deep Supply Chain Issues Will Deepen Inflation

Jason Yanowitz


<p>Blockworks has curated a collection of the latest articles and research on inflation. Read on and scroll to the bottom for a complete <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/category/education/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">list</a> of our Investor&#8217;s Guides.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Articles</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Ultimate Guide to Inflation</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Lyn Alden, Lyn Alden Investment Strategy</h4>



<p>Inflation is a controversial and complex topic. This article looks at 150 years of data across multiple countries to provide a general idea of what inflation is, what to look for, and how to invest with inflationary and deflationary risks in mind. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Keep reading</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/these-3-policy-failures-are-killing-the-american-dream.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">These 3 Policy Failures Are Killing the American Dream</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Eric Levitz, Intelligencer, Square, October 7, 2019</h4>



<p>The United States has never been richer. In 2018, American households boasted a collective net worth of over <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/06/25/six-facts-about-wealth-in-the-united-states/">$98 trillion</a>. If that wealth were divided evenly across the U.S. population, every human being in our country would have roughly $298,000 to their name — and every family of four would be millionaires. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/these-3-policy-failures-are-killing-the-american-dream.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Keep reading</a></p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Books</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36490332-talking-to-my-daughter-about-the-economy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Talking to My Daughter About the Economy: or, How Capitalism Works &#8211; and How It Fails</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Yanis&nbsp;Varoufakis, Jacob Moe&nbsp;(Translator), <strong>Farrar, Straus and Giroux</strong>, May 18, 2018</h4>



<p>In&nbsp;<em>Talking to My Daughter About the Economy</em>, activist Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s former finance minister and the author of the international bestseller&nbsp;<em>Adults in the Room</em>, pens a series of letters to his young daughter, educating her about the business, politics, and corruption of world economics. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B076H4WMY1/ref=x_gr_w_bb_sout?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=x_gr_w_bb_sout-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=B076H4WMY1&amp;SubscriptionId=1MGPYB6YW3HWK55XCGG2" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8854502-when-money-dies?from_search=true&amp;from_srp=true&amp;qid=7AOvHT6m0W&amp;rank=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Adam Fergusson, PublicAffairs, October 12, 2010</h4>



<p><em>When Money Dies</em>&nbsp;is the classic history of what happens when a nation&#8217;s currency depreciates beyond recovery. In 1923, with its currency effectively worthless (the exchange rate in December of that year was one dollar to 4,200,000,000,000 marks), the German republic was all but reduced to a barter economy. Expensive cigars, artworks, and jewels were routinely exchanged for staples such as bread; a cinema ticket could be bought for a lump of coal; and a bottle of paraffin for a silk shirt. People watched helplessly as their life savings disappeared and their loved ones starved. Germany&#8217;s finances descended into chaos, with severe social unrest in its wake.Money may no longer be physically printed and distributed in the voluminous quantities of 1923. However, &#8220;quantitative easing,&#8221; that modern euphemism for surreptitious deficit financing in an electronic era, can no less become an assault on monetary discipline. Whatever the reason for a country&#8217;s deficit &#8212; necessity or profligacy, unwillingness to tax or blindness to expenditure &#8212; it is beguiling to suppose that if the day of reckoning is postponed economic recovery will come in time to prevent higher unemployment or deeper recession. What if it does not? Germany in 1923 provides a vivid, compelling, sobering moral tale.&nbsp;&#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation/dp/1586489941" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50157837-the-price-of-tomorrow?from_search=true&amp;from_srp=true&amp;qid=9QnrgHKQyd&amp;rank=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future</a></strong>&nbsp;</h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Jeff Booth, Stanley Press, January 14, 2020</h4>



<p>We live in an extraordinary time. Technological advances are happening at a rate faster than our ability to understand them, and in a world that moves faster than we can imagine, we cannot afford to stand still. These advances bring efficiency and abundance—and they are profoundly deflationary. Our economic systems were built for a pre-technology era when labour and capital were inextricably linked, an era that counted on growth and inflation, an era where we made money from inefficiency. That era is over, but we keep on pretending that those economic systems still work. The only thing driving growth in the world today is easy credit, which is being created at a pace that is hard to comprehend—and with it, debt that we will never be able to pay back. As we try to artificially drive an economic system built for the past, we are creating more than just economic trouble. On our current path, our world will become profoundly more polarized and unsafe. We need to build a new framework for our local and global economies, and soon; we need to accept deflation and embrace the abundance it can bring. Otherwise, the same technology that has the power to bring abundance to us and our world will instead destroy it. In this extraordinary contrarian book, Jeff Booth, a leading mind and CEO in e-commerce and technology for 20 years, details the technological and economic realities shaping our present and our future, and the choices we face as we go forward—a potentially alarming, but deeply hopeful situation. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Price-Tomorrow-Deflation-Abundant-Future/dp/1999257405" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/48839932-what-has-government-done-to-our-money?from_search=true&amp;from_srp=true&amp;qid=bSB8KzMaLp&amp;rank=2" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">What Has Government Done to Our Money?</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Murray N. Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises Institute, May 27, 2015</h4>



<p><em>What Has Government Done to Our Money?</em> details the history of money, from early barter systems, to the gold standard, to present-day systems of paper money. Rothbard explains how money was originally developed, and why gold was chosen as the preferred commodity to use as money. The author also explains how the gold standard makes money a commodity, and how market forces create a stable economy. Rothbard shows that many European governments went bankrupt due to World War I and left the gold standard in order to try to solve their financial issues, which was not the right solution. He also argues that this strategy was partially responsible for World War II and led to economic problems throughout the world.  &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/What-Has-Government-Done-Money/dp/1610166450" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read it</a></p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Podcasts and Videos</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-end-game-ep-5-russell-napier/id1508585135?i=1000486918326" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Grant Williams Podcast, The End Game &#8211; Episode 5</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The End Game &#8211; Episode 5: Russell Napier, Apple Podcasts, August 2, 2020</h4>



<p>Bill and Grant welcome Russell Napier to The End Game to discuss the reasons behind the long-term disinflationist&#8217;s recent decision to step off that train and prepare for the return of inflation.</p>



<p>Using examples from the 1690s, 1930s and 1970s, Russell makes the case for inflation in the United States hitting 4% before the end of the year and explains why recent moves by the U.S. government to circumvent the Federal Reserve have changed the game dramatically and, potentially, bring The End Game much closer. &#8230; </p>



<p><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-end-game-ep-5-russell-napier/id1508585135?i=1000486918326" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Listen in</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KraHsCjY8_8" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Inflation is theft</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Lex Clips, Robert Breedlove and Lex Fridman, YouTube, April 19, 2021</h4>



<p>Robert Breedlove is a decentralized finance entrepreneur, philosopher, and podcaster.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KraHsCjY8_8" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Watch it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edJPodRQ7Z0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">What is Inflation</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Preston Pysh (We Study Billionaires), YouTube, May 12, 2012</h4>



<p>By understanding what causes inflation, we can then understand how it destroys the yield of a loan and maintains the value of corporate ownership. We learned that inflation is generally caused when the government increases the supply of money in the financial system. When this occurs, members of the system have more money to spend and the price of goods and services go up. This increase in price can drastically destroy a long term investment if the investor doesn&#8217;t account for the compounding inflation rate. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edJPodRQ7Z0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Watch it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIxqz5ea-Gk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Connection between Inflation and Bitcoin</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">On the Margin, Michael Ippolito and Lyn Alden, Blockworks, YouTube, March 17, 2021</h4>



<p>On this episode of On The Margin, we discuss the transition of monetary to fiscal dominance, Lyn&#8217;s thoughts on inflation, the implications of a steepening yield curve, what she would do as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and her thoughts on the growing digital asset ecosystem.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIxqz5ea-Gk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Watch it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJEvuaHyPlQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Lacy Hunt: The Road Through Deflation Toward Eventual Hyperinflation</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Macro Voices, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna, Dr. Lacy Hunt, YouTube, April 30, 2020</h4>



<p>MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to the show to discuss his core thesis on interest rates and inflation, how to interpret FED policy in inflation and perspectives on the FED bailing out the high yield market.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJEvuaHyPlQ" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Watch it</a></p>



<div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPIC5F_loFk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jeff Booth on the Link Between Inflation and Inequality</a></h3>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">On the Margin, Michael Ippolito and Jeff Booth, Blockworks, YouTube, April 14, 2021</h4>



<p>Jeff&#8217;s main observation is as simple as it is profound: we live in a deflationary world that depends on inflation for economic growth. How can we reconcile those two ideas? In short, we can&#8217;t. In this episode we covered the powerful deflationary impacts of deflation, the inflationary structure of our current monetary system, how government meddling is leading to inequality, and how Bitcoin may lead us to a brighter future. &#8230;</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPIC5F_loFk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Watch it</a></p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Get educated. Check out <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/the-investors-guide-to-bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Investor&#8217;s Guide to Bitcoin</a>, <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/the-investors-guide-to-nfts/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Investor&#8217;s Guide to NFTs</a> and <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/the-investors-guide-to-defi/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Investor&#8217;s Guide to DeFi</a>.</h3>



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<p><em>The content of this webpage is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any company, product, or idea. It is for general educational purposes only and does not take into account your individual needs, investment objectives or specific financial circumstances.</em></p>
